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← Back to GamesSep 17, 2022Week 3

House Prediction

Model Margin

Baylor by 25.8

Home Win Probability

Baylor 93%

Market (consensus)

Baylor -30

Edge: Texas State +30 (4.2 pts)

fitted_v1 · Sep 17, 2022

Line Movement

No line movement to chart

Sportsbook snapshots publish once a line is posted for this game.

Team1Q2Q3Q4QFinal
Texas StateTexas State
07007
BaylorBaylor
71471442

Scoring Timeline

Q1Q2Q3Q401428427-014-021-728-742-7
BaylorTexas State

Drive Chart

Own 20Own 4050Opp 40Opp 20BAYTSBAYTSBAYTSBAYTSBAYTSTSBAYTSBAYTSBAYTSBAYTSBAYTSBAYTSBAYTSTD1375ydPUNT39ydPUNT36ydDOWNS1045ydTD969ydDOWNS1471ydPUNT3-1ydTD554ydTD996ydEND1-2ydTO638ydTO827ydDOWNS621ydTD651ydPUNT3-3ydTO18ydMISS816ydTD269ydPUNT3-7ydTD250ydPUNT415ydPUNT629ydPUNT39ydTO317ydEND527yd

Box Score

Team statistics comparing Texas State and Baylor
StatisticTexas StateBaylor
Passing24-3617-28
Pass Yards186208
Rush Yards82293
Total Yards268501
Turnovers13
3rd Down4-144-11
Penalties3-255-55
Possession31:3228:28

Player Leaders

Player Leaders

Texas State
passing
Layne Hatcher
24/36, 186 YDS, 1 TD
rushing
Calvin Hill
12 CAR, 41 YDS
receiving
Ashtyn Hawkins
13 REC, 114 YDS, 1 TD
defense
Baylor
passing
Blake Shapen
15/26, 184 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
rushing
Richard Reese
19 CAR, 156 YDS, 3 TD
receiving
Gavin Holmes
3 REC, 46 YDS, 1 TD
defense

Play-by-Play

1st & 10Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.33

Blake Shapen pass complete to Drake Dabney for 6 yds to the Bayl 31

2nd & 4Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.55

Richard Reese run for 2 yds to the Bayl 33

3rd & 2Rush+5 ydsPPA +1.34

Richard Reese run for 5 yds to the Bayl 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.09

Blake Shapen pass incomplete to Drake Dabney

2nd & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +1.03

Richard Reese run for 9 yds to the Bayl 47

1st & 10Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.33

Blake Shapen pass complete to Craig Williams for 6 yds to the TexSt 42

2nd & 4Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.38

Craig Williams run for 7 yds to the TexSt 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 20Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.01

Blake Shapen pass incomplete to Hal Presley

2nd & 20Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.80

Blake Shapen pass incomplete to Richard Reese

3rd & 20Pass Reception+18 ydsPPA +2.58

Blake Shapen pass complete to Seth Jones for 18 yds to the TexSt 27

4th & 2Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +1.33

Blake Shapen pass complete to Gavin Yates for 10 yds to the TexSt 17 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.11

Blake Shapen pass complete to Kelsey Johnson for 3 yds to the TexSt 14

2nd & 7Rushing Touchdown+14 ydsPPA +2.69

Richard Reese 14 Yd Run (John Mayers Kick)

1st & 10Kickoff Return (Offense)+15 yds

Noah Rauschenberg kickoff for 65 yds , Donnovan Moorer return for 15 yds to the TexSt 15

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.29

Calvin Hill run for 2 yds to the TexSt 17

2nd & 8Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.04

Layne Hatcher pass complete to Calvin Hill for 4 yds to the TexSt 21

3rd & 4Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.11

Layne Hatcher pass complete to Ashtyn Hawkins for 3 yds to the TexSt 24

4th & 1Punt0 yds

Seamus O'Kelly punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Gavin Holmes at the Bayl 32

4th & 1Punt0 yds

Seamus O'Kelly punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Gavin Holmes at the Bayl 32

1st & 10Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.39

Blake Shapen pass complete to Hal Presley for 6 yds to the Bayl 38

2nd & 4Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.09

Blake Shapen pass incomplete to Seth Jones

3rd & 4Rush0 ydsPPA -0.63

Richard Reese run for no gain to the Bayl 38

4th & 4Punt0 yds

Issac Power punt for 38 yds

4th & 4Punt0 yds

Issac Power punt for 38 yds

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.89

Calvin Hill run for 8 yds to the TexSt 32

2nd & 2Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.08

Calvin Hill run for 2 yds to the TexSt 30

3rd & 4Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +1.61

Layne Hatcher pass complete to Ashtyn Hawkins for 7 yds to the TexSt 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.82

Layne Hatcher pass complete to Julian Ortega-Jones for 8 yds to the Bayl 41

2nd & 2Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.20

Lincoln Pare run for 2 yds to the Bayl 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.62

Lincoln Pare run for 1 yd to the Bayl 40

2nd & 11Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.15

Ashtyn Hawkins run for 4 yds to the Bayl 44

3rd & 15Pass Reception+13 ydsPPA +1.76

Layne Hatcher pass complete to Demarcus Gregory for 13 yds to the Bayl 31

4th & 2Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -2.76

Layne Hatcher pass incomplete to Ashtyn Hawkins

4th & 2Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -2.76

Layne Hatcher pass incomplete to Ashtyn Hawkins

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.74

Richard Reese run for 1 yd to the Bayl 30

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.74

Richard Reese run for 1 yd to the Bayl 30

2nd & 11Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.19

Blake Shapen pass complete to Kelsey Johnson for 6 yds to the Bayl 36

3rd & 5Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.09

Craig Williams run for 4 yds to the Bayl 40

4th & 1Rush+4 ydsPPA +2.17

Richard Reese run for 4 yds to the Bayl 44 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.43

Richard Reese run for 3 yds to the Bayl 47

2nd & 7Rush+8 ydsPPA +1.32

Richard Reese run for 8 yds to the TexSt 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.09

Blake Shapen run for 5 yds to the TexSt 40

2nd & 5Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +0.57

Kyron Drones pass complete to Seth Jones for 10 yds to the TexSt 30 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rushing Touchdown+30 ydsPPA +2.81

Craig Williams 30 Yd Run (John Mayers Kick)

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.70

Layne Hatcher pass incomplete to Marcell Barbee

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.15

Layne Hatcher pass incomplete to Javen Banks

2nd & 10Pass Reception+17 ydsPPA +2.24

Layne Hatcher pass complete to Ashtyn Hawkins for 17 yds to the Bayl 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+1 ydsPPA -0.55

Layne Hatcher pass complete to Calvin Hill for 1 yd to the Bayl 35

2nd & 9Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.11

Layne Hatcher pass complete to Julian Ortega-Jones for 4 yds to the Bayl 31

3rd & 5Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +1.02

Layne Hatcher pass complete to Ashtyn Hawkins for 9 yds to the Bayl 22 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.03

Layne Hatcher pass complete to Julian Ortega-Jones for 4 yds to the Bayl 18

2nd & 6Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.03

Calvin Hill run for 4 yds to the Bayl 14

3rd & 2Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.29

Calvin Hill run for 5 yds to the Bayl 9 for a 1ST down

1st & 9Pass Reception0 ydsPPA -0.32

Layne Hatcher pass complete to Tyler Huff for no gain to the Bayl 9

2nd & 9Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.08

Layne Hatcher pass complete to Ashtyn Hawkins for 3 yds to the Bayl 6

3rd & 6Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.16

Jahmyl Jeter run for 2 yds to the Bayl 4

4th & 4Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -4.02

Layne Hatcher pass incomplete to Javen Banks

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.11

Craig Williams run for 3 yds to the Bayl 1

2nd & 13Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.04

Richard Reese run for 2 yds to the Bayl 3

3rd & 11Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.04

Blake Shapen pass incomplete to Seth Jones

4th & 11Punt0 yds

Issac Power punt for 48 yds , Ashtyn Hawkins returns for no gain to the TexSt 46

1st & 10Pass Reception+18 ydsPPA +1.17

Layne Hatcher pass complete to Julian Ortega-Jones for 18 yds to the Bayl 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.24

Calvin Hill run for 6 yds to the Bayl 30

2nd & 4Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +0.17

Layne Hatcher pass complete to Ashtyn Hawkins for 11 yds to the Bayl 19 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.31

Calvin Hill run for 7 yds to the Bayl 12

2nd & 3Passing Touchdown+12 ydsPPA +2.29

Ashtyn Hawkins 12 Yd pass from Layne Hatcher (Seth Keller Kick)

1st & 10Kickoff Return (Offense)+3 yds

Mason Shipley kickoff for 64 yds , Craig Williams return for 3 yds to the Bayl 4

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.23

Richard Reese run for 1 yd to the Bayl 5

2nd & 9Pass Reception+13 ydsPPA +0.68

Blake Shapen pass complete to Gavin Holmes for 13 yds to the Bayl 18 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.08

Blake Shapen pass complete to Gavin Holmes for 5 yds to the Bayl 23

2nd & 5Pass Reception+13 ydsPPA +1.26

Blake Shapen pass complete to Javon Gipson for 13 yds to the Bayl 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.97

Blake Shapen pass incomplete to Javon Gipson

2nd & 10Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +0.95

Blake Shapen pass complete to Javon Gipson for 9 yds to the TexSt 35

3rd & 1Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.04

Blake Shapen pass incomplete to Hal Presley

4th & 1Rushing Touchdown+35 ydsPPA +4.47

Blake Shapen 35 Yd Run (John Mayers Kick)

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.45

run for 2 yds to the TexSt 23

0th & 10End of Half0 yds

End of 2nd Quarter

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.45

run for 2 yds to the TexSt 23

1st & 10Pass Reception+29 ydsPPA +2.53

Layne Hatcher pass complete to Ashtyn Hawkins for 29 yds to the Bayl 46 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.34

Layne Hatcher run for 3 yds to the Bayl 43

2nd & 7Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.32

Layne Hatcher pass complete to Marcell Barbee for 6 yds to the Bayl 37

3rd & 1Rush+2 ydsPPA +0.59

Calvin Hill run for 2 yds to the Bayl 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.69

Layne Hatcher pass incomplete to Charles Brown

2nd & 10Fumble Recovery (Own)+2 ydsPPA -0.50

Layne Hatcher pass complete to Javen Banks for 2 yds Javen Banks fumbled, recovered by TexSt Mike Harris

1st & 10Rush+11 ydsPPA +1.04

Richard Reese run for 11 yds to the Bayl 48 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.14

Blake Shapen pass incomplete to Hal Presley

2nd & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +1.10

Richard Reese run for 9 yds to the TexSt 43

3rd & 1Rush+2 ydsPPA +0.81

Blake Shapen run for 2 yds to the TexSt 41 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.10

Richard Reese run for 4 yds to the TexSt 37

2nd & 6Pass Reception+1 ydsPPA -0.71

Blake Shapen pass complete to Craig Williams for 1 yd to the TexSt 38

3rd & 7Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.62

Craig Williams run for 2 yds to the TexSt 36

4th & 5Interception0 ydsPPA -1.90

Blake Shapen pass intercepted

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.86

Layne Hatcher pass incomplete to Ashtyn Hawkins

2nd & 10Pass Reception+16 ydsPPA +2.37

Layne Hatcher pass complete to Calvin Hill for 16 yds to the TexSt 46 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.11

Calvin Hill run for 5 yds to the Bayl 49

2nd & 5Rush0 ydsPPA -1.19

Calvin Hill run for no gain to the Bayl 49

3rd & 5Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.97

Layne Hatcher pass incomplete to Julian Ortega-Jones

4th & 5Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.76

Layne Hatcher pass incomplete to Ashtyn Hawkins

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.13

Blake Shapen pass incomplete to Seth Jones

2nd & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.61

Richard Reese run for 2 yds to the TexSt 49

3rd & 8Rush+22 ydsPPA +2.93

Richard Reese run for 22 yds to the TexSt 27 for a 1ST down

1st & 15Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.67

Blake Shapen pass incomplete to Hal Presley

2nd & 15Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.13

Richard Reese run for 4 yds to the TexSt 28

3rd & 11Passing Touchdown+28 ydsPPA +4.08

Gavin Holmes 28 Yd pass from Blake Shapen (John Mayers Kick)

1st & 10Kickoff Return (Offense)+18 yds

Noah Rauschenberg kickoff for 62 yds , Donnovan Moorer return for 18 yds to the TexSt 21

1st & 10Sack-9 ydsPPA -0.98

Layne Hatcher sacked for a loss of 9 yards to the TexSt 12

2nd & 19Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.03

Layne Hatcher pass complete to Ashtyn Hawkins for 6 yds to the TexSt 18

3rd & 13Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.07

Layne Hatcher pass incomplete to Calvin Hill

4th & 13Punt0 yds

Seamus O'Kelly punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Gavin Holmes at the Bayl 37

4th & 13Punt0 yds

Seamus O'Kelly punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Gavin Holmes at the Bayl 37

1st & 10Fumble Recovery (Opponent)+8 ydsPPA -1.95

Craig Williams run for 8 yds to the Bayl 45 Craig Williams fumbled, recovered by TexSt Peyton Tuggle

1st & 10Fumble Recovery (Opponent)+8 ydsPPA -1.95

Craig Williams run for 8 yds to the Bayl 45 Craig Williams fumbled, recovered by TexSt Peyton Tuggle

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.55

Calvin Hill run for 2 yds to the Bayl 43

2nd & 8Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.61

Calvin Hill run for 2 yds to the Bayl 41

3rd & 6Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.07

Jahmyl Jeter run for 5 yds to the Bayl 36

4th & 1Rush+7 ydsPPA +1.77

Jahmyl Jeter run for 7 yds to the Bayl 29 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.17

Layne Hatcher pass complete to Ashtyn Hawkins for 3 yds to the Bayl 26

2nd & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.60

Layne Hatcher pass incomplete to Dennis Robinson

3rd & 7Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.27

Lincoln Pare run for 3 yds to the Bayl 29

4th & 10Blocked Field Goal+46 yds

Seth Keller 46 yd FG BLOCKED blocked by Chidi Ogbonnaya

1st & 10Pass Reception+17 ydsPPA +1.60

Blake Shapen pass complete to Richard Reese for 17 yds to the Bayl 48 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rushing Touchdown+52 ydsPPA +4.01

Richard Reese 52 Yd Run (John Mayers Kick)

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.70

Layne Hatcher pass incomplete to Marcell Barbee

2nd & 10Sack-9 ydsPPA -0.57

Layne Hatcher sacked by Brooks Miller for a loss of 9 yards to the TexSt 16

3rd & 19Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.02

Jahmyl Jeter run for 2 yds to the TexSt 18

4th & 17Punt0 yds

Seamus O'Kelly punt for 32 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the 50 yard line

4th & 17Punt0 yds

Seamus O'Kelly punt for 32 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the 50 yard line

1st & 10Pass Reception+45 ydsPPA +1.96

Blake Shapen pass complete to Josh Fleeks for 45 yds to the TexSt 5 for a 1ST down

1st & 5Rushing Touchdown+5 ydsPPA +1.88

Richard Reese 5 Yd Run (John Mayers Kick)

1st & 10Rush+13 ydsPPA +1.12

Lincoln Pare run for 13 yds to the TexSt 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.43

Layne Hatcher pass complete to Ashtyn Hawkins for 3 yds to the TexSt 41

2nd & 7Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.79

Lincoln Pare run for 1 yd to the TexSt 40

3rd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.49

Layne Hatcher pass incomplete to Marcell Barbee

4th & 8Punt0 yds

Seamus O'Kelly punt for 32 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Bayl 28

4th & 8Punt0 yds

Seamus O'Kelly punt for 32 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Bayl 28

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.13

Kyron Drones run for 4 yds to the Bayl 32

2nd & 6Rush+7 ydsPPA +1.13

Craig Williams run for 7 yds to the Bayl 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+14 ydsPPA +1.24

Kyron Drones pass complete to Josh Cameron for 14 yds to the TexSt 47 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.82

Craig Williams run for 1 yd to the TexSt 46

2nd & 9Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.63

Hal Presley run for 2 yds to the TexSt 44

3rd & 7Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.81

Kyron Drones run for 1 yd to the TexSt 43

4th & 6Punt0 yds

Issac Power punt for 43 yds for a touchback

4th & 6Punt0 yds

Issac Power punt for 43 yds for a touchback

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.09

Josh Berry run for 4 yds to the TexSt 24

2nd & 6Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.33

Josh Berry run for 2 yds to the TexSt 26

3rd & 4Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.14

Josh Berry run for 3 yds to the TexSt 29

4th & 1Punt+24 yds

Seamus O'Kelly punt for 43 yds , Jordan Nabors returns for 24 yds to the TexSt 48

4th & 1Punt+24 yds

Seamus O'Kelly punt for 43 yds , Jordan Nabors returns for 24 yds to the TexSt 48

1st & 10Rush+11 ydsPPA +0.63

Josh Fleeks run for 11 yds to the TexSt 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 20Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.38

Josh Fleeks run for 3 yds to the TexSt 44

2nd & 17Fumble Recovery (Opponent)+13 ydsPPA -1.74

Josh Fleeks run for 13 yds to the TexSt 31 Josh Fleeks fumbled, recovered by TexSt Kevin Anderson

1st & 10Rush+14 ydsPPA +1.33

Josh Berry run for 14 yds to the TexSt 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.42

Josh Berry run for 3 yds to the TexSt 48

2nd & 7Rush+7 ydsPPA +1.22

Josh Berry run for 7 yds to the Bayl 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.55

Josh Berry run for 2 yds to the Bayl 43

2nd & 8Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.84

Josh Berry run for 1 yd to the Bayl 42

2nd & 8Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.84

Josh Berry run for 1 yd to the Bayl 42

Situational Analysis

Texas State

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
31%
29 plays
2nd
33%
3 plays
25%
4 plays
29%
14 plays
50%
2 plays
3rd
100%
2 plays
43%
7 plays
0%
2 plays
33%
3 plays
4th
33%
3 plays
0%
2 plays

Baylor

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
100%
1 play
44%
27 plays
0%
3 plays
2nd
57%
7 plays
75%
8 plays
20%
5 plays
3rd
67%
3 plays
0%
2 plays
33%
3 plays
67%
3 plays
4th
100%
3 plays
0%
1 play