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← Back to GamesSep 18, 2022Week 3

House Prediction

Model Margin

Montana State by 2.2

Home Win Probability

Oregon State 44%

Market (consensus)

Oregon State -16.5

Edge: Montana State +16.5 (18.7 pts)

fitted_v1 · Sep 18, 2022

Line Movement

No line movement to chart

Sportsbook snapshots publish once a line is posted for this game.

Team1Q2Q3Q4QFinal
Montana State
777728
Oregon StateOregon State
727201468

Scoring Timeline

Q1Q2Q3Q4014284256707-714-721-728-1434-1440-2147-2154-2161-2868-28
Oregon StateMontana State

Drive Chart

Own 20Own 4050Opp 40Opp 20OSMSOSMSOSOSMSOSMSOSMSMSOSMSOSMSOSMSOSMSOSTD790ydTD1066ydTD1475ydTO10ydTD758ydTD875ydTO4-2ydTD212ydPUNT39ydMISS745ydTD419ydTD1175ydTD320ydPUNT44ydTD533ydTO214ydTD654ydTD865ydTD1064ydPUNT34ydEND3-6yd

Box Score

Team statistics comparing Montana State and Oregon State
StatisticMontana StateOregon State
Passing9-1822-29
Pass Yards101324
Rush Yards168214
Total Yards269538
Turnovers30
3rd Down3-1010-12
Penalties3-276-65
Possession27:3832:38

Player Leaders

Player Leaders

Montana State
passing
Tommy Mellott
9/18, 101 YDS, 3 INT
rushing
Tommy Mellott
18 CAR, 135 YDS
receiving
Derryk Snell
1 REC, 27 YDS
defense
Oregon State
passing
Chance Nolan
19/25, 276 YDS, 4 TD
rushing
Deshaun Fenwick
9 CAR, 63 YDS, 1 TD
receiving
Tre'Shaun Harrison
8 REC, 133 YDS, 1 TD
defense

Play-by-Play

0th & 0Kickoff Return (Offense)+17 yds

Blake Glessner kickoff for 57 yds , Damien Martinez return for 17 yds to the OREGONST 48 OREGON ST Penalty, Illegal Block (15 Yards) to the OrgSt 10

1st & 10Pass Reception+23 ydsPPA +1.36

Chance Nolan pass complete to Tre'Shaun Harrison for 23 yds to the OrgSt 33 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.15

Deshaun Fenwick run for 4 yds to the OrgSt 37

2nd & 6Rush0 ydsPPA -0.90

Damien Martinez run for no gain to the OrgSt 37

3rd & 6Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +2.39

Chance Nolan pass complete to Tyjon Lindsey for 10 yds to the OrgSt 47 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+11 ydsPPA +0.80

Damien Martinez run for 11 yds to the MntSt 42 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+17 ydsPPA +0.59

Chance Nolan pass complete to Anthony Gould for 17 yds to the MntSt 25 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rushing Touchdown+25 ydsPPA +2.70

Deshaun Fenwick run for 25 yds for a TD, (Everett Hayes KICK)

0th & 0Kickoff Return (Offense)+34 yds

Atticus Sappington kickoff for 65 yds , Marqui Johnson return for 34 yds to the MntSt 34

1st & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +1.38

Sean Chambers run for 9 yds to the MntSt 43

2nd & 1Rush-2 ydsPPA -1.92

Clevan Thomas run for a loss of 2 yards to the MntSt 41

3rd & 3Rush+11 ydsPPA +2.19

run for 11 yds to the OrgSt 48 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +0.59

Tommy Mellott pass complete to Clevan Thomas for 10 yds to the OrgSt 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.42

run for 7 yds to the OrgSt 31

2nd & 3Rush+15 ydsPPA +0.10

run for 15 yds to the OrgSt 16 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.33

Sean Chambers run for no gain to the OrgSt 16

2nd & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.29

run for 8 yds to the OrgSt 8

3rd & 2Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.28

run for 1 yd to the OrgSt 7

4th & 1Rushing Touchdown+7 ydsPPA +2.90

Sean Chambers run for 7 yds for a TD, (Blake Glessner KICK)

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.45

Deshaun Fenwick run for 2 yds to the OrgSt 27

2nd & 8Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +1.38

Chance Nolan pass complete to Anthony Gould for 9 yds to the OrgSt 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.04

Chance Nolan pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.63

Chance Nolan pass incomplete

3rd & 10Rush+14 ydsPPA +2.98

Chance Nolan run for 14 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-3 ydsPPA -1.79

Jam Griffin run for a loss of 3 yards to the OrgSt 47

2nd & 13Penalty0 yds

MONTANA ST Penalty, Offsides (Sebastian Valdez) declined for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.51

Chance Nolan pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.22

Deshaun Fenwick run for 3 yds to the MntSt 25

3rd & 7Penalty-15 yds

OREGON ST Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Deshaun Fenwick) to the MntSt 17 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.31

Damien Martinez run for 7 yds to the MntSt 10

2nd & 3Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.26

Deshaun Fenwick run for 2 yds to the MntSt 8

3rd & 1Rush+2 ydsPPA +0.48

Chance Nolan run for 2 yds to the MntSt 6 for a 1ST down

1st & 6Passing Touchdown+6 ydsPPA +2.05

Chance Nolan pass complete to Tre'Shaun Harrison for 6 yds for a TD, (Everett Hayes KICK)

0th & 0Kickoff Return (Offense)+19 yds

Atticus Sappington kickoff for 50 yds , Marqui Johnson return for 19 yds to the MntSt 34

1st & 10Interception0 ydsPPA -1.66

Tommy Mellott pass intercepted

1st & 10Interception0 ydsPPA -1.66

Tommy Mellott pass intercepted

1st & 10Pass Reception+25 ydsPPA +1.66

Chance Nolan pass complete to Tre'Shaun Harrison for 25 yds to the MntSt 33 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.48

Jam Griffin run for 1 yd to the MntSt 32

2nd & 9Rush0 ydsPPA -0.81

Jam Griffin run for no gain to the MntSt 32

3rd & 9Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +1.55

Chance Nolan pass complete to Tyjon Lindsey for 10 yds to the MntSt 22 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+15 ydsPPA +0.45

Chance Nolan pass complete to Jake Overman for 15 yds to the MntSt 7 for a 1ST down

1st & 7Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.30

Deshaun Fenwick run for 6 yds to the MntSt 1

2nd & 1Rushing Touchdown+1 ydsPPA +1.90

Chance Nolan run for 1 yd for a TD, (Everett Hayes KICK)

0th & 0Kickoff Return Touchdown+98 yds

Marqui Johnson 98 Yd Kickoff Return (Blake Glessner Kick)

1st & 10Pass Reception+17 ydsPPA +1.52

Chance Nolan pass complete to Tre'Shaun Harrison for 17 yds to the OrgSt 42 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+13 ydsPPA +1.09

Deshaun Fenwick run for 13 yds to the MntSt 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.30

Chance Nolan pass complete to Tre'Shaun Harrison for 6 yds to the MntSt 39

2nd & 4Rush-3 ydsPPA -1.70

Damien Martinez run for a loss of 3 yards to the MntSt 42

3rd & 7Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.31

Damien Martinez run for 6 yds to the MntSt 36

4th & 1Rush+17 ydsPPA +1.96

Damien Martinez run for 17 yds to the MntSt 19 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty-10 yds

BOLDEN, Silas rush to the right for a gain of 19 yards to the MST0, TOUCHDOWN OSU, score nullified by penalty, clock 07:01. PENALTY OSU Illegal Block in the Back enforced 10 yards from the MST19 to the MST29. NO PLAY (replay the down).

1st & 20Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.03

Jam Griffin run for 5 yds to the MntSt 24

2nd & 15Passing Touchdown+24 ydsPPA +3.45

Chance Nolan pass complete to Silas Bolden for 24 yds for a TD, (Everett Hayes KICK)

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.70

run for no gain to the MntSt 25

2nd & 10Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.04

Tommy Mellott pass complete to Treyton Pickering for 15 yds to the MntSt 40 MONTANA ST Penalty, Offensive Holding (Clevan Thomas) to the MntSt 23

2nd & 12Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.25

Tommy Mellott pass incomplete

3rd & 12Interception0 ydsPPA +0.21

Tommy Mellott pass intercepted

3rd & 12Interception0 ydsPPA +0.21

Tommy Mellott pass intercepted

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.10

Deshaun Fenwick run for 3 yds to the MntSt 9

2nd & 7Passing Touchdown+9 ydsPPA +2.63

Chance Nolan pass complete to Anthony Gould for 9 yds for a TD, (Everett Hayes PAT MISSED)

0th & 0Kickoff Return (Offense)+18 yds

Atticus Sappington kickoff for 65 yds , Marqui Johnson return for 18 yds to the MntSt 18

1st & 10Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.27

Tommy Mellott pass complete to Clevan Thomas for 6 yds to the MntSt 24

2nd & 4Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.42

run for 2 yds to the MntSt 26

3rd & 2Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.36

Sean Chambers run for 1 yd to the MntSt 27

4th & 1Punt-9 yds

Bryce Leighton punt for 37 yds , Anthony Gould returns for a loss of 9 yards to the OrgSt 27

4th & 1Punt-9 yds

Bryce Leighton punt for 37 yds , Anthony Gould returns for a loss of 9 yards to the OrgSt 27

1st & 10Pass Reception+26 ydsPPA +2.32

Chance Nolan pass complete to Tre'Shaun Harrison for 26 yds to the MntSt 47 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.54

Chance Nolan pass complete to Tre'Shaun Harrison for 7 yds to the MntSt 40

2nd & 3Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.04

Chance Nolan pass incomplete

3rd & 3Rush+5 ydsPPA +1.14

Damien Martinez run for 5 yds to the MntSt 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty+12 yds

NOLAN, Chance pass to the right incomplete intended for DUNMORE, John broken up by WOODARD, Simeon at the MST24. PENALTY MST Pass Interference on WOODARD, Simeon enforced at the spot of the foul for 12 yards to the MST23 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.42

Chance Nolan pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Reception0 ydsPPA -0.55

Chance Nolan pass complete to Deshaun Fenwick for no gain to the MntSt 23

2nd & 10Pass Reception0 ydsPPA -0.55

Chance Nolan pass complete to Deshaun Fenwick for no gain to the MntSt 23

4th & 15Field Goal Missed+46 yds

Everett Hayes 46 yd FG MISSED

0th & 15End of Half0 yds

End of 2nd Quarter

1st & 10Rush+14 ydsPPA +1.22

Tommy Mellott run for 14 yds to the MntSt 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.17

Tommy Mellott run for 4 yds to the MntSt 43

2nd & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.07

Tommy Mellott pass incomplete

3rd & 6Pass Reception+1 ydsPPA -0.56

Tommy Mellott pass complete to Elijah Elliott for 1 yd to the MntSt 44

4th & 5Punt+80 yds

Bryce Leighton punt for 36 yds , Anthony Gould returns for 80 yds for a TD, (Atticus Sappington PAT MISSED)

0th & 0Penalty-5 yds

OREGON ST Penalty, Delay Of Game (-5 Yards) to the MntSt 8

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.70

Tommy Mellott pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+11 ydsPPA +1.63

run for 11 yds to the MntSt 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.40

run for 6 yds to the MntSt 42

2nd & 4Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.72

run for 2 yds to the MntSt 44

3rd & 2Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +1.78

Tommy Mellott pass complete to Clevan Thomas for 8 yds to the OrgSt 48 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+19 ydsPPA +0.90

run for 19 yds to the OrgSt 29 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+10 ydsPPA +0.18

run for 10 yds to the OrgSt 19 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.46

Sean Chambers run for 8 yds to the OrgSt 11

2nd & 2Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.17

Sean Chambers run for 3 yds to the OrgSt 8 for a 1ST down

1st & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.36

Tommy Mellott pass incomplete

2nd & 8Rushing Touchdown+8 ydsPPA +2.68

Sean Chambers 8 Yd Run (Blake Glessner Kick)

0th & 0Kickoff Return (Offense)+80 yds

Blake Glessner kickoff for 65 yds , Silas Bolden return for 80 yds to the MntSt 20

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.46

Chance Nolan run for 8 yds to the MntSt 12

2nd & 2Rush+5 ydsPPA -0.04

Deshaun Fenwick run for 5 yds to the MntSt 7 for a 1ST down

1st & 7Rushing Touchdown+7 ydsPPA +2.20

Damien Martinez run for 7 yds for a TD, (Atticus Sappington KICK)

0th & 0Kickoff Return (Offense)+21 yds

Atticus Sappington kickoff for 65 yds , Marqui Johnson return for 21 yds to the MntSt 21

1st & 10Rush+10 ydsPPA +0.72

run for 10 yds to the MntSt 31 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.89

Tommy Mellott pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush-3 ydsPPA -0.66

Willie Patterson run for a loss of 3 yards to the MntSt 28

3rd & 13Penalty-5 yds

MONTANA ST Penalty, False Start (JT Reed) to the MntSt 23

3rd & 18Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.04

run for 2 yds to the MntSt 25

4th & 16Punt+33 yds

Bryce Leighton punt for 41 yds , Anthony Gould returns for 33 yds to the MntSt 33

4th & 16Punt+33 yds

Bryce Leighton punt for 41 yds , Anthony Gould returns for 33 yds to the MntSt 33

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.54

Jam Griffin run for 8 yds to the MntSt 25

2nd & 2Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA -0.23

Chance Nolan pass complete to Jack Velling for 7 yds to the MntSt 18 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.27

Silas Bolden run for 1 yd to the MntSt 17

2nd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.40

Chance Nolan pass incomplete

3rd & 9Passing Touchdown+17 ydsPPA +3.26

Chance Nolan pass complete to Anthony Gould for 17 yds for a TD, (Atticus Sappington KICK)

1st & 10Pass Reception+14 ydsPPA +1.32

Tommy Mellott pass complete to Ravi Alston for 14 yds to the MntSt 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Interception0 ydsPPA -3.08

Tommy Mellott pass intercepted

1st & 10Interception0 ydsPPA -3.08

Tommy Mellott pass intercepted

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.42

Ben Gulbranson run for 3 yds to the OrgSt 49

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.42

Ben Gulbranson run for 3 yds to the OrgSt 49

2nd & 7Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.42

Jam Griffin run for 3 yds to the MntSt 48

3rd & 4Rush+14 ydsPPA +2.09

Kanoa Shannon run for 14 yds to the MntSt 34 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.21

Kanoa Shannon run for 3 yds to the MntSt 31

2nd & 7Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.48

Ben Gulbranson pass complete to Jimmy Valsin III for 8 yds to the MntSt 23 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rushing Touchdown+23 ydsPPA +2.66

Jam Griffin run for 23 yds for a TD, (Atticus Sappington KICK)

1st & 10Pass Reception+27 ydsPPA +2.15

Tommy Mellott pass complete to Derryk Snell for 27 yds to the OrgSt 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.25

Tommy Mellott pass complete to Ravi Alston for 3 yds to the OrgSt 35

2nd & 7Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.47

run for 2 yds to the OrgSt 33

3rd & 5Pass Reception+24 ydsPPA +1.39

Tommy Mellott pass complete to Willie Patterson for 24 yds to the OrgSt 9 for a 1ST down

1st & 9Rush-2 ydsPPA -0.43

Sean Chambers run for a loss of 2 yards to the OrgSt 11

2nd & 11Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.38

Marqui Johnson run for a loss of 1 yard to the OrgSt 12

3rd & 12Rush+11 ydsPPA +0.45

run for 11 yds to the OrgSt 1

4th & 1Rushing Touchdown+1 ydsPPA +2.79

Sean Chambers run for 1 yd for a TD, (Blake Glessner KICK)

0th & 0Kickoff Return (Offense)0 yds

Blake Glessner kickoff for 29 yds , return for no gain to the OrgSt 36

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -1.04

Kanoa Shannon run for no gain to the OrgSt 36

2nd & 10Pass Reception+14 ydsPPA +2.35

Ben Gulbranson pass complete to Jesiah Irish for 14 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+10 ydsPPA +0.65

Ben Gulbranson run for 10 yds to the MntSt 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.85

Ben Gulbranson pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -1.03

Kanoa Shannon run for no gain to the MntSt 40

3rd & 10Pass Reception+26 ydsPPA +2.51

Ben Gulbranson pass complete to John Dunmore for 26 yds to the MntSt 14 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Fumble Recovery (Own)+3 ydsPPA -0.10

Kanoa Shannon run for 3 yds to the MntSt 13 Kanoa Shannon fumbled, recovered by OrgSt

2nd & 9Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.10

Jam Griffin run for 3 yds to the MntSt 10

3rd & 6Rush+7 ydsPPA +1.43

Jam Griffin run for 7 yds to the MntSt 3 for a 1ST down

1st & 3Rushing Touchdown+3 ydsPPA +1.46

Kanoa Shannon run for 3 yds for a TD, (Atticus Sappington KICK)

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.59

Elijah Elliott run for 1 yd to the MntSt 26

2nd & 9Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.18

Elijah Elliott run for 3 yds to the MntSt 29

3rd & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.31

Tommy Mellott pass incomplete

4th & 6Punt0 yds

Bryce Leighton punt for 31 yds

4th & 6Punt0 yds

Bryce Leighton punt for 31 yds

No play data available

Situational Analysis

Montana State

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
48%
25 plays
2nd
33%
3 plays
0%
3 plays
57%
7 plays
0%
2 plays
3rd
50%
4 plays
33%
3 plays
75%
4 plays
4th
100%
2 plays

Oregon State

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
100%
1 play
100%
1 play
55%
33 plays
100%
1 play
2nd
20%
5 plays
0%
2 plays
31%
13 plays
100%
1 play
3rd
100%
2 plays
100%
3 plays
100%
5 plays
4th
100%
1 play