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← Back to GamesOct 15, 2022Week 7
Conference Game

House Prediction

Model Margin

Kentucky by 2.2

Home Win Probability

Kentucky 55%

Market (consensus)

Kentucky +3.5

Edge: Kentucky +3.5 (5.7 pts)

fitted_v1 · Oct 15, 2022

Line Movement

No line movement to chart

Sportsbook snapshots publish once a line is posted for this game.

Team1Q2Q3Q4QFinal
Mississippi StateMississippi State
037717
KentuckyKentucky
03101427

Scoring Timeline

Q1Q2Q3Q4014280-36-313-1020-1027-17
KentuckyMississippi State

Drive Chart

Own 20Own 4050Opp 40Opp 20MSKENMSKENMSKENMSKENMSKENMSKENMSKENMSKENKENMSKENPUNT416ydTO1143ydPUNT3-14ydPUNT1028ydFG1357ydMISS1142ydDOWNS832ydFG554ydEND1-5ydFG856ydTD875ydTD876ydPUNT533ydTD780ydPUNT31ydTD48ydTD575ydTO30ydEND830yd

Box Score

Team statistics comparing Mississippi State and Kentucky
StatisticMississippi StateKentucky
Passing25-3719-25
Pass Yards203239
Rush Yards22239
Total Yards225478
Turnovers12
3rd Down3-116-15
Penalties13-10911-84
Possession20:3839:22

Player Leaders

Player Leaders

Mississippi State
passing
Will Rogers
25/37, 203 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
rushing
Dillon Johnson
2 CAR, 16 YDS
receiving
Jo'quavious Marks
7 REC, 60 YDS
defense
Kentucky
passing
Will Levis
17/23, 230 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
rushing
Chris Rodriguez Jr.
30 CAR, 196 YDS, 2 TD
receiving
Barion Brown
7 REC, 62 YDS
defense

Play-by-Play

1st & 10Penalty+5 yds

KENTUCKY Penalty, Defensive Offside (Deone Walker) to the MisSt 30

1st & 5Penalty+5 yds

KENTUCKY Penalty, Defensive Offside (Jordan Wright) to the MisSt 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+16 ydsPPA +1.48

Dillon Johnson run for 16 yds to the Kent 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.10

Will Rogers pass incomplete to Dillon Johnson

2nd & 10Pass Reception-5 ydsPPA -1.80

Will Rogers pass complete to Dillon Johnson for a loss of 5 yards to the MisSt 46

3rd & 15Penalty-5 yds

MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, False Start (Kameron Jones) to the MisSt 41

3rd & 20Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.19

Will Rogers pass incomplete to Jo'quavious Marks

4th & 20Punt+3 yds

George Georgopoulos punt for 41 yds , Barion Brown returns for 3 yds to the Kent 21

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.38

Chris Rodriguez Jr. run for 2 yds to the Kent 23

2nd & 8Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.20

Chris Rodriguez Jr. run for 6 yds to the Kent 29

3rd & 2Rush+4 ydsPPA +1.08

Chris Rodriguez Jr. run for 4 yds to the Kent 33 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty-5 yds

KENTUCKY Penalty, False Start (Jeremy Flax) to the Kent 28

1st & 15Rush0 ydsPPA -0.52

JuTahn McClain run for no gain to the Kent 28

2nd & 15Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.25

Will Levis pass incomplete to Barion Brown

3rd & 15Pass Reception+14 ydsPPA +0.77

Will Levis pass complete to JuTahn McClain for 14 yds to the Kent 42

4th & 1Rush+8 ydsPPA +2.59

Chris Rodriguez Jr. run for 8 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +1.09

Chris Rodriguez Jr. run for 9 yds to the MisSt 41

2nd & 1Pass Reception-6 ydsPPA -2.61

Will Levis pass complete to Chauncey Magwood for 4 yds to the MisSt 37 KENTUCKY Penalty, Offensive Holding (Dane Key) to the MisSt 47

2nd & 7Penalty-10 yds

Smoke, Kavosiey rush for 6 yards to the MISSSTATE41, PENALTY KENTUCKY holding 10 yards to the KENTUCKY43, NO PLAY.

2nd & 17Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.54

Will Levis pass incomplete to Jordan Dingle

3rd & 17Fumble Recovery (Opponent)+21 ydsPPA -0.10

Will Levis pass complete to Rahsaan Lewis for 21 yds Rahsaan Lewis fumbled, forced by Collin Duncan, recovered by MisSt Jalen Green

1st & 10Penalty-10 yds

MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, Offensive Holding (Steven Losoya III) to the MisSt 26

1st & 20Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.12

Will Rogers pass complete to Jo'quavious Marks for 6 yds to the MisSt 32

2nd & 14Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.36

Will Rogers pass incomplete to Justin Robinson

3rd & 14Sack-10 ydsPPA -0.28

Will Rogers sacked by Carrington Valentine for a loss of 10 yards to the MisSt 22

4th & 24Punt+5 yds

Archer Trafford punt for 56 yds , Barion Brown returns for 5 yds to the Kent 27 KENTUCKY Penalty, Illegal Block (Keaton Upshaw) to the Kent 17

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.48

Chris Rodriguez Jr. run for no gain to the Kent 17

2nd & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.19

JuTahn McClain run for 1 yd to the Kent 18

3rd & 9Pass Reception+31 ydsPPA +3.28

Will Levis pass complete to Dane Key for 31 yds to the Kent 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.15

JuTahn McClain run for 4 yds to the MisSt 47

2nd & 6Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.11

Chris Rodriguez Jr. run for 5 yds to the MisSt 42

3rd & 1Rush0 ydsPPA -1.18

Chris Rodriguez Jr. run for no gain to the MisSt 42

4th & 1Rush+4 ydsPPA +2.05

Will Levis run for 4 yds to the MisSt 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty-10 yds

Levis, Will pass sacked for loss of 2 yards to the MISSSTATE40 (Russell, De'Monte), PENALTY KENTUCKY holding 10 yards to the MISSSTATE48, NO PLAY.

1st & 20Rush0 ydsPPA -0.98

JuTahn McClain run for no gain to the MisSt 48

2nd & 20Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.30

Will Levis pass complete to JuTahn McClain for 3 yds to the MisSt 45

3rd & 17Penalty-5 yds

KENTUCKY Penalty, Substitution Infraction (-5 Yards) to the 50 yard line

3rd & 22Sack-5 ydsPPA -0.44

Will Levis sacked by Tyrus Wheat for a loss of 5 yards to the Kent 45

4th & 27Punt0 yds

Colin Goodfellow punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Zavion Thomas at the MisSt 13

1st & 10Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.64

Will Rogers pass complete to Caleb Ducking for 8 yds to the MisSt 21

2nd & 2Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +0.45

Will Rogers pass complete to Lideatrick Griffin for 10 yds to the MisSt 31 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.68

Jo'quavious Marks run for 7 yds to the MisSt 38

2nd & 3Penalty+5 yds

KENTUCKY Penalty, Defensive Offside (Josaih Hayes) to the MisSt 43 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.69

Will Rogers run for 2 yds to the MisSt 45

2nd & 8Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.09

Jo'quavious Marks run for 5 yds to the 50 yard line

3rd & 3Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +1.77

Will Rogers pass complete to Caleb Ducking for 8 yds to the Kent 42 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.91

Dillon Johnson run for no gain to the Kent 42

2nd & 10Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.28

Will Rogers pass complete to Dillon Johnson for 6 yds to the Kent 36

3rd & 4Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +1.08

Will Rogers pass complete to Rufus Harvey for 5 yds to the Kent 31 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+2 ydsPPA -0.31

Will Rogers pass complete to Caleb Ducking for 2 yds to the Kent 29

2nd & 8Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.88

Jo'quavious Marks run for a loss of 1 yard to the Kent 30

3rd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.98

Will Rogers pass incomplete

4th & 9Field Goal Good+48 yds

Massimo Biscardi 48 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +1.25

Will Levis pass complete to Barion Brown for 9 yds to the Kent 34

2nd & 1Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.07

Chris Rodriguez Jr. run for 6 yds to the Kent 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.11

Chris Rodriguez Jr. run for 5 yds to the Kent 45

2nd & 5Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.17

Chris Rodriguez Jr. run for 4 yds to the Kent 49

3rd & 1Rush+2 ydsPPA +1.05

Will Levis run for 2 yds to the MisSt 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.86

JuTahn McClain run for 1 yd to the MisSt 48

2nd & 9Rush+13 ydsPPA +1.65

Chris Rodriguez Jr. run for 13 yds to the MisSt 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.87

Chris Rodriguez Jr. run for a loss of 1 yard to the MisSt 36

2nd & 11Pass Reception+2 ydsPPA -0.53

Will Levis pass complete to Barion Brown for 2 yds to the MisSt 34

3rd & 9Pass Reception+1 ydsPPA -0.81

Will Levis pass complete to Barion Brown for 1 yd to the MisSt 33

4th & 8Field Goal Missed+51 yds

Matt Ruffolo 51 yd FG MISSED

1st & 10Pass Reception+15 ydsPPA +1.42

Will Rogers pass complete to Rara Thomas for 15 yds to the MisSt 48 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.36

Will Rogers pass complete to Jo'quavious Marks for 6 yds to the Kent 46

2nd & 4Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.18

Will Rogers pass incomplete

3rd & 4Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +1.78

Will Rogers pass complete to Austin Williams for 9 yds to the Kent 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.75

Will Rogers pass incomplete to Austin Williams

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.97

Will Rogers pass incomplete

3rd & 10Penalty-5 yds

MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, False Start (Nick Jones) to the Kent 42

3rd & 15Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.46

Will Rogers pass complete to Jo'quavious Marks for 7 yds to the Kent 35

4th & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.63

Will Rogers pass incomplete to Rufus Harvey

1st & 10Penalty+10 yds

Levis, Will pass incomplete to Key, Dane, PENALTY MISSSTATE holding (Forbes, Emmanuel) 10 yards to the KENTUCKY45, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN KENTUCKY.

1st & 10Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +1.23

Will Levis pass complete to Rahsaan Lewis for 9 yds to the MisSt 46

2nd & 1Penalty-5 yds

KENTUCKY Penalty, False Start (Jager Burton) to the Kent 49

2nd & 6Pass Reception+24 ydsPPA +1.62

Will Levis pass complete to Rahsaan Lewis for 9 yds to the KENTUCKY 41 for a 1ST down MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, Personal Foul (Decamerion Richardson) to the MisSt 26 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty+10 yds

Levis, Will pass incomplete to Key, Dane, PENALTY MISSSTATE holding (Richardson, Decamerion) 10 yards to the MISSSTATE16, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN KENTUCKY.

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.18

Will Levis run for 6 yds to the MisSt 10

2nd & 4Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.39

Will Levis pass incomplete to Dane Key

3rd & 4Field Goal Good+28 yds

Matt Ruffolo 28 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Rush-5 ydsPPA -1.07

TEAM run for a loss of 5 yards to the MisSt 20

0th & 10End of Half0 yds

End of 2nd Quarter

1st & 10Rush+11 ydsPPA +0.93

Chris Rodriguez Jr. run for 11 yds to the Kent 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.16

Will Levis pass complete to Barion Brown for 4 yds to the Kent 40

2nd & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.99

Will Levis pass incomplete to Barion Brown

3rd & 6Pass Reception+33 ydsPPA +3.56

Will Levis pass complete to Barion Brown for 33 yds to the KENTUCKY 27 for a 1ST down MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Jackie Matthews) declined for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.61

Chris Rodriguez Jr. run for a loss of 1 yard to the MisSt 28

2nd & 11Pass Reception+2 ydsPPA -0.38

Kaiya Sheron pass complete to Jordan Dingle for 2 yds to the MisSt 26

3rd & 9Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.34

Kaiya Sheron pass complete to Barion Brown for 7 yds to the MisSt 19

4th & 2Field Goal Good+37 yds

Matt Ruffolo 37 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +1.03

Will Rogers pass complete to Caleb Ducking for 12 yds to the MisSt 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +1.04

Will Rogers pass complete to Jo'quavious Marks for 11 yds to the MisSt 48 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+24 ydsPPA +1.24

Will Rogers pass complete to Austin Williams for 24 yds to the Kent 28 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+19 ydsPPA +0.34

Will Rogers pass complete to Jo'quavious Marks for 19 yds to the Kent 9 for a 1ST down

1st & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.32

Will Rogers pass incomplete to Jo'quavious Marks

2nd & 9Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.29

Will Rogers pass complete to Jo'quavious Marks for 8 yds to the Kent 1

3rd & 1Rush0 ydsPPA -0.33

Jo'quavious Marks run for no gain to the Kent 1

4th & 1Passing Touchdown+1 ydsPPA +2.79

Will Rogers pass complete to Austin Williams for 1 yd for a TD, (Massimo Biscardi KICK)

4th & 2Kickoff Return (Offense)+17 yds

Ben Raybon kickoff for 58 yds , Barion Brown return for 17 yds to the Kent 24

1st & 10Rush+10 ydsPPA +0.81

Chris Rodriguez Jr. run for 10 yds to the Kent 34 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +1.03

Chris Rodriguez Jr. run for 8 yds to the Kent 42

2nd & 2Rush+3 ydsPPA +0.03

Chris Rodriguez Jr. run for 3 yds to the Kent 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+47 ydsPPA +1.96

Chris Rodriguez Jr. run for 47 yds to the MisSt 8 for a 1ST down

1st & 8Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.21

Chris Rodriguez Jr. run for 2 yds to the MisSt 6

2nd & 6Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.02

Chris Rodriguez Jr. run for 4 yds to the MisSt 2

3rd & 2Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.37

Chris Rodriguez Jr. run for a loss of 1 yard to the MisSt 3

4th & 3Passing Touchdown+3 ydsPPA +2.92

Will Levis pass complete to Rahsaan Lewis for 3 yds for a TD, (Matt Ruffolo KICK)

4th & 5Kickoff Return (Offense)+32 yds

Chance Poore kickoff for 65 yds , Lideatrick Griffin return for 32 yds to the KENTUCKY 33 MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, Offensive Holding (10 Yards) to the MisSt 22

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.61

Will Rogers pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Reception+30 ydsPPA +3.20

Will Rogers pass complete to Jaden Walley for 30 yds to the Kent 48 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.36

Jo'quavious Marks run for 3 yds to the Kent 45

2nd & 7Penalty-5 yds

MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, False Start (Justin Robinson) to the 50 yard line

2nd & 12Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.16

Will Rogers pass complete to Simeon Price for 4 yds to the Kent 46

3rd & 8Penalty-5 yds

MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the MisSt 49

3rd & 13Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.20

Will Rogers pass complete to Simeon Price for 6 yds to the Kent 45

4th & 7Punt0 yds

Archer Trafford punt for 45 yds for a touchback

1st & 10Rush+15 ydsPPA +1.14

JuTahn McClain run for 15 yds to the Kent 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.16

JuTahn McClain run for 4 yds to the Kent 39

2nd & 6Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.39

JuTahn McClain run for 3 yds to the Kent 42

3rd & 3Penalty+9 yds

Levis, Will pass incomplete to Brown, Barion, PENALTY MISSSTATE holding (Matthews, Jackie) 9 yards to the MISSSTATE49, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN KENTUCKY.

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.62

Chris Rodriguez Jr. run for 2 yds to the MisSt 47

2nd & 8Pass Reception0 ydsPPA -1.11

Will Levis pass complete to Chris Rodriguez Jr. for no gain to the MisSt 47

3rd & 8Pass Reception+31 ydsPPA +2.91

Will Levis pass complete to JuTahn McClain for 31 yds to the MisSt 16 for a 1ST down MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, Defensive Holding ( Yards) declined for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rushing Touchdown+16 ydsPPA +2.57

Chris Rodriguez Jr. run for 16 yds for a TD, (Matt Ruffolo KICK)

1st & 10Pass Reception+2 ydsPPA -0.68

Will Rogers pass complete to Caleb Ducking for 2 yds to the MisSt 42

2nd & 8Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.16

Will Rogers pass complete to Dillon Johnson for 4 yds to the MisSt 46

3rd & 4Penalty-5 yds

MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, False Start (Nick Jones) to the MisSt 41

3rd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.48

Will Rogers pass incomplete to Austin Williams

4th & 9Punt0 yds

George Georgopoulos punt for 4 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the MisSt 45

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.55

JuTahn McClain run for 2 yds to the MisSt 43

2nd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.07

Will Levis pass incomplete to Rahsaan Lewis

3rd & 8Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.30

Will Levis pass complete to Barion Brown for 6 yds to the MisSt 37

4th & 2Interception Return Touchdown+59 ydsPPA -9.20

Will Levis pass intercepted for a TD Emmanuel Forbes return for 59 yds for a TD, (Massimo Biscardi KICK)

1st & 10Rush+12 ydsPPA +1.03

Chris Rodriguez Jr. run for 12 yds to the Kent 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.40

Kavosiey Smoke run for 6 yds to the Kent 43

2nd & 4Rush0 ydsPPA -1.20

Kavosiey Smoke run for no gain to the Kent 43

3rd & 4Pass Reception+50 ydsPPA +3.65

Will Levis pass complete to Dekel Crowdus for 50 yds to the MisSt 7 for a 1ST down

1st & 7Rushing Touchdown+7 ydsPPA +2.20

Chris Rodriguez Jr. run for 7 yds for a TD, (Matt Ruffolo KICK)

1st & 10Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.30

Will Rogers pass complete to Jo'quavious Marks for 3 yds to the MisSt 28

2nd & 7Pass Reception+2 ydsPPA -0.36

Will Rogers pass complete to Jaden Walley for 2 yds to the MisSt 30

3rd & 5Penalty-5 yds

MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, False Start (Rara Thomas) to the MisSt 25

3rd & 10Pass Interception Return+8 ydsPPA +0.13

Will Rogers pass intercepted DeAndre Square return for 8 yds to the MisSt 32

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.46

Chris Rodriguez Jr. run for 1 yd to the MisSt 31

2nd & 9Rush+15 ydsPPA +0.77

Kavosiey Smoke run for no gain to the MisSt 31 for a 1ST down MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, Personal Foul (Collin Duncan) to the MisSt 16 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.02

Chris Rodriguez Jr. run for 4 yds to the MisSt 12

2nd & 6Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.07

Chris Rodriguez Jr. run for 5 yds to the MisSt 7

3rd & 1Rush0 ydsPPA -0.38

Chris Rodriguez Jr. run for no gain to the MisSt 7

4th & 1Rush+6 ydsPPA +1.96

Chris Rodriguez Jr. run for 6 yds to the MisSt 1 for a 1ST down

1st & 1Rush-1 ydsPPA -1.13

TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the MisSt 2

2nd & 2Rush0 ydsPPA -0.48

TEAM run for no gain to the MisSt 2

Situational Analysis

Mississippi State

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
45%
20 plays
100%
1 play
2nd
100%
1 play
0%
1 play
44%
9 plays
0%
2 plays
3rd
50%
2 plays
100%
2 plays
33%
3 plays
50%
4 plays
4th
100%
1 play
0%
1 play

Kentucky

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
0%
1 play
52%
27 plays
0%
2 plays
2nd
50%
4 plays
33%
9 plays
50%
6 plays
0%
5 plays
3rd
40%
5 plays
100%
2 plays
80%
5 plays
33%
3 plays
4th
80%
5 plays