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← Back to GamesOct 8, 2022Week 6
Conference Game

House Prediction

Model Margin

Ole Miss by 12.7

Home Win Probability

Vanderbilt 21%

Market (consensus)

Vanderbilt +17

Edge: Vanderbilt +17 (4.3 pts)

fitted_v1 · Oct 8, 2022

Line Movement

No line movement to chart

Sportsbook snapshots publish once a line is posted for this game.

Team1Q2Q3Q4QFinal
Ole MissOle Miss
314211452
VanderbiltVanderbilt
3170828

Scoring Timeline

Q1Q2Q3Q40142842563-310-320-1020-1720-2420-3828-52
VanderbiltOle Miss

Drive Chart

Own 20Own 4050Opp 40Opp 20OMVANOMVANOMVANOMVANOMVANVANOMVANOMVANOMVANOMVANOMVANOMVANFG1364ydFG1156ydDOWNS1252ydTD768ydTO10ydFG628ydTD365ydTD1575ydTD762ydEND14ydPUNT515ydTD783ydTO3-14ydTD16ydPUNT32ydTD171ydPUNT614ydTO757ydDOWNS1667ydTD172ydTD674ydTD844ydEND14yd

Box Score

Team statistics comparing Ole Miss and Vanderbilt
StatisticOle MissVanderbilt
Passing25-3227-38
Pass Yards448281
Rush Yards143122
Total Yards591403
Turnovers21
3rd Down8-117-17
Penalties9-855-50
Possession18:4341:17

Player Leaders

Player Leaders

Ole Miss
passing
Jaxson Dart
25/32, 448 YDS, 3 TD, 2 INT
rushing
Zach Evans
11 CAR, 80 YDS, 1 TD
receiving
Jonathan Mingo
9 REC, 247 YDS, 2 TD
defense
Vanderbilt
passing
AJ Swann
27/38, 281 YDS, 2 TD
rushing
Re'Mahn Davis
27 CAR, 105 YDS, 1 TD
receiving
Jayden McGowan
7 REC, 104 YDS, 1 TD
defense

Play-by-Play

1st & 10Kickoff Return (Offense)+18 yds

Joseph Bulovas kickoff for 64 yds , Dayton Wade return for 18 yds to the Miss 19

1st & 10Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +1.08

Jaxson Dart pass complete to Zach Evans for 9 yds to the Miss 28

2nd & 1Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.09

Jaxson Dart pass incomplete

3rd & 1Rush+3 ydsPPA +0.83

Zach Evans run for 3 yds to the Miss 31 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.10

Jaxson Dart pass complete to Malik Heath for 5 yds to the Miss 36

2nd & 5Rush+11 ydsPPA +1.41

Zach Evans run for 11 yds to the Miss 47 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +1.18

Jaxson Dart pass complete to Jonathan Mingo for 9 yds to the Vandy 44

2nd & 1Penalty-5 yds

PENALTY Ole False Start (Williams,Jayden) 5 yards from Vandy44 to Vandy49. NO PLAY.

2nd & 6Rush+10 ydsPPA +1.11

Zach Evans run for 10 yds to the Vandy 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.62

Zach Evans run for 1 yd to the Vandy 40

2nd & 11Pass Reception+23 ydsPPA +1.58

Jaxson Dart pass complete to Jordan Watkins for 23 yds to the Vandy 17 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +0.62

Jaxson Dart pass complete to Jordan Watkins for 9 yds to the Vandy 8

2nd & 1Penalty-10 yds

No Huddle-Shotgun Judkins,Quinshon rush middle for 0 yards to the Vandy08 (Clifton,Nate; Taylor,CJ) PENALTY Ole Holding (Trigg,Michael) 10 yards from Vandy08 to Vandy18. NO PLAY.

2nd & 11Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.33

Quinshon Judkins run for 1 yd to the Vandy 17

3rd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.64

Jaxson Dart pass incomplete to Jonathan Mingo

4th & 10Field Goal Good+35 yds

Jonathan Cruz 35 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Penalty-15 yds

PENALTY Ole UNR: Unnecessary Roughness (Pettus,Micah) 15 yards from Ole35 to Ole20. NO PLAY.

1st & 10Kickoff Return (Offense)+21 yds

Jonathan Cruz kickoff for 62 yds , Jayden McGowan return for 21 yds to the Vandy 39

1st & 10Rush+10 ydsPPA +0.93

Ray Davis run for 10 yds to the Vandy 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.13

AJ Swann pass incomplete to Will Sheppard

2nd & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.83

Ray Davis run for 8 yds to the Miss 43

3rd & 2Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.92

Ray Davis run for 1 yd to the Miss 44

4th & 3Pass Reception+23 ydsPPA +2.97

AJ Swann pass complete to Will Sheppard for 23 yds to the Miss 21 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.07

Ray Davis run for 5 yds to the Miss 16

2nd & 5Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +0.51

AJ Swann pass complete to Jayden McGowan for 10 yds to the Miss 6 for a 1ST down

1st & 6Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.28

Ray Davis run for 2 yds to the Miss 4

2nd & 4Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.29

AJ Swann run for 1 yd to the Miss 5

3rd & 5Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.29

AJ Swann pass incomplete to Ray Davis

4th & 5Field Goal Good+23 yds

Joseph Bulovas 23 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Kickoff Return (Offense)+37 yds

Joseph Bulovas kickoff for 59 yds , Jaylon Robinson return for 37 yds to the VANDERBILT 28 OLE MISS Penalty, Offensive Holding (John Porchivina) to the Miss 16

1st & 10Pass Reception+1 ydsPPA -0.39

Jaxson Dart pass complete to Jaylon Robinson for 1 yd to the Miss 17

2nd & 9Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.14

Quinshon Judkins run for 6 yds to the Miss 23

3rd & 3Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA +0.82

Jaxson Dart pass complete to Jonathan Mingo for 3 yds to the Miss 26 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.73

Jaxson Dart pass incomplete to Jaylon Robinson

2nd & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.16

Quinshon Judkins run for 3 yds to the Miss 29

3rd & 7Pass Reception+16 ydsPPA +2.63

Jaxson Dart pass complete to Jonathan Mingo for 16 yds to the Miss 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.68

Quinshon Judkins run for 2 yds to the Miss 47

2nd & 8Pass Reception+14 ydsPPA +1.82

Jaxson Dart pass complete to Quinshon Judkins for 14 yds to the Vandy 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.09

Jaxson Dart pass complete to Jordan Watkins for 4 yds to the Vandy 35

2nd & 6Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.28

Zach Evans run for 3 yds to the Vandy 32

3rd & 3Rush0 ydsPPA -0.95

Zach Evans run for no gain to the Vandy 32

4th & 3Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -2.54

Jaxson Dart pass incomplete to Casey Kelly

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.38

Ray Davis run for 3 yds to the Vandy 35

2nd & 7Rush+9 ydsPPA +1.53

Ray Davis run for 9 yds to the Vandy 44 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.16

AJ Swann pass complete to Jayden McGowan for 4 yds to the Vandy 48

2nd & 6Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.69

Ray Davis run for 2 yds to the 50 yard line

3rd & 4Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +1.98

AJ Swann pass complete to Will Sheppard for 9 yds to the Miss 41 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.09

Ray Davis run for 5 yds to the Miss 36

2nd & 5Passing Touchdown+36 ydsPPA +3.15

AJ Swann pass complete to Jayden McGowan for 36 yds for a TD, (Joseph Bulovas KICK)

1st & 10Kickoff Return (Offense)+19 yds

Joseph Bulovas kickoff for 65 yds , Dayton Wade return for 19 yds to the Miss 19

1st & 10Penalty0 yds

OLE MISS Penalty, Disconcerting Signals (Malik Heath) declined

1st & 10Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.30

AJ Swann pass complete to Gamarion Carter for 6 yds to the Miss 38

2nd & 4Pass Reception+18 ydsPPA +0.50

AJ Swann pass complete to Ben Bresnahan for 18 yds to the Miss 20 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.37

AJ Swann pass incomplete to Gamarion Carter

2nd & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.05

Ray Davis run for 4 yds to the Miss 16

3rd & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.51

AJ Swann pass incomplete to Ray Davis

4th & 6Field Goal Good+34 yds

Joseph Bulovas 34 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.63

Zach Evans run for 2 yds to the Miss 37

2nd & 8Pass Reception+2 ydsPPA -0.49

Jaxson Dart pass complete to Malik Heath for 2 yds to the Miss 39

3rd & 6Passing Touchdown+61 ydsPPA +6.37

Jaxson Dart pass complete to Jordan Watkins for 61 yds for a TD, (Jonathan Cruz KICK)

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.70

Patrick Smith run for no gain to the Vandy 25

2nd & 10Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.06

AJ Swann pass complete to Will Sheppard for 4 yds to the Vandy 29

3rd & 6Pass Reception+15 ydsPPA +2.47

AJ Swann pass complete to Will Sheppard for 15 yds to the Vandy 44 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.43

Mike Wright run for 3 yds to the Vandy 47

2nd & 7Penalty+5 yds

PENALTY Ole Offside (Gordon,Jamond) 5 yards from Vandy47 to Ole48. NO PLAY.

2nd & 2Penalty+15 yds

No Huddle-Shotgun Davis,Ray pass incomplete short left to Wright,Mike PENALTY Ole Roughing The Passer (Young,Isheem) 15 yards from Ole48 to Ole33, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.22

Mike Wright run for 6 yds to the Miss 27

2nd & 13Penalty+18 yds

No Huddle-Shotgun Swann,AJ pass complete deep left to Davis,Ray for 18 yards to the Ole18, End Of Play PENALTY Vandy Ineligible Downfield on Pass offsetting Ole Holding offsetting. NO PLAY.

2nd & 13Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.34

Ray Davis run for 3 yds to the Miss 33

3rd & 10Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +1.75

AJ Swann pass complete to Gamarion Carter for 11 yds to the Miss 22 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.22

Ray Davis run for 2 yds to the Miss 20

2nd & 8Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.16

AJ Swann pass complete to Jayden McGowan for 6 yds to the Miss 14

3rd & 2Rush+2 ydsPPA +0.18

Ray Davis run for 2 yds to the Miss 12 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.10

Patrick Smith run for 3 yds to the Miss 9

2nd & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.30

AJ Swann pass incomplete to Will Sheppard

3rd & 7Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.04

Mike Wright run for 4 yds to the Miss 5

4th & 3Rushing Touchdown+5 ydsPPA +2.96

Ray Davis run for 5 yds for a TD, (Joseph Bulovas KICK)

1st & 10Kickoff Return (Offense)+38 yds

Joseph Bulovas kickoff for 65 yds , Dayton Wade return for 38 yds to the Miss 38

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.09

Jaxson Dart pass incomplete to Malik Heath

2nd & 10Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +1.03

Jaxson Dart pass complete to Malik Heath for 9 yds to the Miss 47

3rd & 1Rush+2 ydsPPA +1.09

Quinshon Judkins run for 2 yds to the Miss 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+48 ydsPPA +2.46

Jaxson Dart pass complete to Jonathan Mingo for 48 yds to the Vandy 3 for a 1ST down

1st & 3Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.44

Quinshon Judkins run for 2 yds to the Vandy 1

2nd & 1Rush+1 yds

Quinshon Judkins run for 1 yd to the Vandy 2

3rd & 2Rushing Touchdown+2 ydsPPA +2.54

Quinshon Judkins run for 2 yds for a TD, (Jonathan Cruz KICK)

1st & 10Kickoff Return (Offense)+22 yds

Jonathan Cruz kickoff for 64 yds , Jayden McGowan return for 22 yds to the Vandy 23

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.10

Ray Davis run for 4 yds to the Vandy 27

0th & 10End of Half0 yds

End of 2nd Quarter

1st & 10Kickoff Return (Offense)+23 yds

Jonathan Cruz kickoff for 63 yds , Jayden McGowan return for 23 yds to the Vandy 25

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.70

AJ Swann pass incomplete to Jayden McGowan

2nd & 10Penalty+5 yds

PENALTY Ole Offside (Tennison,Ladarius) 5 yards from Vandy25 to Vandy30. NO PLAY.

2nd & 5Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.93

Ray Davis run for 7 yds to the Vandy 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -1.07

Ray Davis run for no gain to the Vandy 37

2nd & 20Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +0.48

AJ Swann pass complete to Ray Davis for 11 yds to the Vandy 38

3rd & 9Pass Reception+2 ydsPPA -0.26

AJ Swann pass complete to Ray Davis for 2 yds to the Vandy 40

4th & 7Punt0 yds

Matt Hayball punt for 43 yds , Jordan Watkins returns for no gain to the Miss 17

1st & 10Pass Reception+17 ydsPPA +1.20

Jaxson Dart pass complete to Jordan Watkins for 17 yds to the Miss 34 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.39

Jaxson Dart pass complete to Zach Evans for 6 yds to the Miss 40

2nd & 4Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.93

Jaxson Dart pass complete to Jonathan Mingo for 8 yds to the Miss 48 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +0.77

Jaxson Dart pass complete to Jonathan Mingo for 11 yds to the Vandy 41 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.46

Jaxson Dart run for 7 yds to the Vandy 34

2nd & 3Rush+10 ydsPPA +0.10

Zach Evans run for 10 yds to the Vandy 24 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rushing Touchdown+24 ydsPPA +2.68

Zach Evans run for 24 yds for a TD, (Jonathan Cruz KICK)

1st & 19Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.08

Ray Davis run for 3 yds to the Vandy 19

2nd & 16Fumble Recovery (Opponent)+8 ydsPPA +0.19

AJ Swann run for 8 yds to the Vandy 6 AJ Swann fumbled, recovered by Miss Ladarius Tennison

1st & 6Rushing Touchdown+6 ydsPPA +2.05

Quinshon Judkins run for 6 yds for a TD, (Jonathan Cruz KICK)

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.36

Patrick Smith run for 3 yds to the Vandy 33

2nd & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.71

AJ Swann pass incomplete to Gamarion Carter

3rd & 17Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +0.13

AJ Swann pass complete to Jayden McGowan for 9 yds to the Vandy 32

4th & 8Punt0 yds

Matt Hayball punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Jonathan Mingo at the Miss 29

1st & 10Passing Touchdown+71 ydsPPA +5.78

Jaxson Dart pass complete to Jonathan Mingo for 71 yds for a TD, (Jonathan Cruz KICK)

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.59

Ray Davis run for 1 yd to the Vandy 26

2nd & 9Rush+10 ydsPPA +1.52

Jayden McGowan run for 10 yds to the Vandy 16

3rd & 19Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.00

Ray Davis run for 5 yds to the Vandy 21

4th & 14Penalty+15 yds

Hayball,Matt punt 43 yards to the Ole36 Mingo,Jonathan return 4 yards to the Ole40 (Schelling,Wesley) PENALTY Ole Roughing The Kicker (White,Trip) 15 yards from Vandy21 to Vandy36, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.04

AJ Swann pass incomplete to Will Sheppard

2nd & 10Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.27

AJ Swann pass complete to Ray Davis for 3 yds to the Vandy 39

3rd & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.50

AJ Swann pass incomplete to Will Sheppard

4th & 7Punt0 yds

Matt Hayball punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Jordan Watkins at the Miss 27

1st & 10Rush+17 ydsPPA +1.56

Zach Evans run for 17 yds to the Miss 44 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+1 ydsPPA -0.93

Jaxson Dart pass complete to Jordan Watkins for 1 yd to the Miss 45

2nd & 9Pass Reception+28 ydsPPA +2.56

Jaxson Dart pass complete to Michael Trigg for 28 yds to the Vandy 27 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.37

Zach Evans run for 1 yd to the Vandy 26

2nd & 9Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.41

Jaxson Dart run for 8 yds to the Vandy 18

3rd & 1Pass Reception+2 ydsPPA +0.14

Jaxson Dart pass complete to Jordan Watkins for 2 yds to the Vandy 16 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Interception0 ydsPPA -4.43

Jaxson Dart pass intercepted

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.03

Ray Davis run for 4 yds to the Vandy 9

2nd & 6Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.06

Ray Davis run for 5 yds to the Vandy 14

3rd & 1Rush+3 ydsPPA +0.36

Ray Davis run for 3 yds to the Vandy 17 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.73

AJ Swann pass complete to Patrick Smith for 8 yds to the Vandy 25

2nd & 2Rush+9 ydsPPA +0.47

Patrick Smith run for 9 yds to the Vandy 34 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.62

Patrick Smith run for 2 yds to the Vandy 36

2nd & 8Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.48

Jayden McGowan run for 2 yds to the Vandy 38

3rd & 6Pass Reception+13 ydsPPA +2.67

AJ Swann pass complete to Will Sheppard for 13 yds to the Miss 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.34

AJ Swann pass complete to Quincy Skinner Jr. for 6 yds to the Miss 43

2nd & 14Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.15

AJ Swann pass complete to Will Sheppard for 4 yds to the Miss 49

3rd & 10Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.26

AJ Swann pass complete to Ray Davis for 6 yds to the Miss 43

4th & 4Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +2.70

AJ Swann pass complete to Will Sheppard for 9 yds to the Miss 34 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.66

AJ Swann pass incomplete to Gamarion Carter

2nd & 10Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.06

AJ Swann pass complete to Jayden McGowan for 5 yds to the Miss 29

3rd & 5Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.89

AJ Swann pass incomplete to Will Sheppard

4th & 5Pass Reception+1 ydsPPA -2.57

AJ Swann pass complete to Patrick Smith for 1 yd to the Miss 28

1st & 10Passing Touchdown+72 ydsPPA +5.86

Jaxson Dart pass complete to Jonathan Mingo for 72 yds for a TD, (Jonathan Cruz KICK)

1st & 10Kickoff Return (Offense)+19 yds

Jonathan Cruz kickoff for 58 yds , Jayden McGowan return for 19 yds to the Vandy 26

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.34

Ray Davis run for 6 yds to the Vandy 32

2nd & 4Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.57

Ray Davis run for 2 yds to the Vandy 34

3rd & 2Rush+5 ydsPPA +1.38

Ray Davis run for 5 yds to the Vandy 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+34 ydsPPA +2.11

AJ Swann pass complete to Jayden McGowan for 34 yds to the Miss 27 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+18 ydsPPA +0.32

AJ Swann pass complete to Gamarion Carter for 18 yds to the Miss 9 for a 1ST down

1st & 9Passing Touchdown+9 ydsPPA +2.42

Will Sheppard 9 Yd pass from AJ Swann (AJ Swann Pass to Ben Bresnahan for Two-Point Conversion)

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.75

Quinshon Judkins run for 1 yd to the Vandy 45

2nd & 11Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.84

JJ Henry run for 1 yd to the Vandy 46

3rd & 12Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +1.15

Jaxson Dart pass complete to Malik Heath for 10 yds to the Vandy 36

4th & 2Rush+24 ydsPPA +2.17

Quinshon Judkins run for 24 yds to the Vandy 12 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +0.61

Jaxson Dart pass complete to Jonathan Mingo for 9 yds to the Vandy 3

2nd & 1Rush+1 ydsPPA +0.70

Matt Jones run for 1 yd to the Vandy 4

3rd & 2Rush+3 ydsPPA +1.63

Matt Jones run for 3 yds to the Vandy 1 for a 1ST down

1st & 1Rushing Touchdown+1 ydsPPA +0.94

Matt Jones 1 Yd Run (Jonathan Cruz Kick)

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.11

Rocko Griffin run for 4 yds to the Vandy 29

Situational Analysis

Ole Miss

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
50%
2 plays
100%
1 play
56%
25 plays
2nd
67%
3 plays
75%
4 plays
71%
7 plays
33%
3 plays
3rd
86%
7 plays
100%
1 play
50%
2 plays
100%
1 play
4th
50%
2 plays

Vanderbilt

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
0%
1 play
38%
29 plays
0%
1 play
2nd
100%
1 play
63%
8 plays
45%
11 plays
50%
4 plays
3rd
75%
4 plays
50%
6 plays
40%
5 plays
100%
2 plays
4th
100%
2 plays
50%
2 plays