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← Back to GamesOct 1, 2022Week 5
Conference Game

House Prediction

Model Margin

Ole Miss by 3.8

Home Win Probability

Ole Miss 57%

Market (consensus)

Ole Miss -6.5

Edge: Kentucky +6.5 (2.7 pts)

fitted_v1 · Oct 1, 2022

Line Movement

No line movement to chart

Sportsbook snapshots publish once a line is posted for this game.

Team1Q2Q3Q4QFinal
KentuckyKentucky
667019
Ole MissOle Miss
1453022

Scoring Timeline

Q1Q2Q3Q4014287-014-016-619-1219-1922-19
Ole MissKentucky

Drive Chart

Own 20Own 4050Opp 40Opp 20OMKENOMKENOMKENOMKENOMKENOMKENKENOMKENOMKENOMKENOMKENOMPUNT531ydPUNT610ydTD665ydMISS954ydTD679ydTD215ydPUNT516ydSAF5-1ydFG1028ydTD970ydTO538ydEND1-1ydPUNT35ydPUNT35ydTD849ydFG1257ydDOWNS47ydDOWNS1263ydTO1174ydPUNT31ydTO442ydEND2-5yd

Box Score

Team statistics comparing Kentucky and Ole Miss
StatisticKentuckyOle Miss
Passing18-2415-29
Pass Yards220213
Rush Yards108186
Total Yards328399
Turnovers21
3rd Down7-147-14
Penalties4-153-31
Possession36:5323:07

Player Leaders

Player Leaders

Kentucky
passing
Will Levis
18/24, 220 YDS, 2 TD
rushing
Chris Rodriguez Jr.
19 CAR, 72 YDS, 1 TD
receiving
Barion Brown
2 REC, 81 YDS
defense
Ole Miss
passing
Jaxson Dart
15/29, 213 YDS, 1 INT
rushing
Quinshon Judkins
15 CAR, 106 YDS, 1 TD
receiving
Malik Heath
6 REC, 100 YDS
defense
Troy Brown
1 TFL, 1 PD

Play-by-Play

1st & 10Kickoff Return (Offense)+23 yds

Chance Poore kickoff for 65 yds , Dayton Wade return for 23 yds to the Miss 23

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.32

Jaxson Dart run for 6 yds to the Miss 29

2nd & 4Rush+21 ydsPPA +2.05

JJ Henry run for 21 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.11

Jaxson Dart pass incomplete to JJ Henry

2nd & 10Rush-2 ydsPPA -1.36

Zach Evans run for a loss of 2 yards to the Miss 48

3rd & 12Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +1.27

Jaxson Dart pass complete to Malik Heath for 11 yds to the Kent 41

4th & 1Penalty-5 yds

OLE MISS Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Kent 46

4th & 6Punt0 yds

Fraser Masin punt for 41 yds, downed at the Kent 5

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.18

Chris Rodriguez Jr. run for 6 yds to the Kent 11

2nd & 4Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.16

Will Levis run for 3 yds to the Kent 14

3rd & 1Rush+3 ydsPPA +0.36

Will Levis run for 3 yds to the Kent 17 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.48

Will Levis pass incomplete to Barion Brown

2nd & 10Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.12

Will Levis pass complete to Brenden Bates for 6 yds to the Kent 23

3rd & 4Sack-8 ydsPPA -0.46

Will Levis sacked by Austin Keys for a loss of 8 yards to the Kent 15

4th & 12Punt0 yds

Colin Goodfellow punt for 50 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Miss 35

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.71

Zach Evans run for 7 yds to the Miss 42

2nd & 3Rush0 ydsPPA -1.26

Jonathan Mingo run for no gain to the Miss 42

3rd & 3Rush+4 ydsPPA +1.61

Zach Evans run for 4 yds to the Miss 46 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+12 ydsPPA +0.89

Jaxson Dart run for 12 yds to the Kent 42 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+38 ydsPPA +1.61

Jaxson Dart pass complete to Jordan Watkins for 38 yds to the Kent 4 for a 1ST down

1st & 4Rushing Touchdown+4 ydsPPA +1.69

Zach Evans run for 4 yds for a TD, (Jonathan Cruz KICK)

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.09

Kavosiey Smoke run for 5 yds to the Kent 30

2nd & 5Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.31

Chris Rodriguez Jr. run for 3 yds to the Kent 33

3rd & 2Pass Reception+30 ydsPPA +3.25

Will Levis pass complete to Barion Brown for 30 yds to the Miss 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.41

Chris Rodriguez Jr. run for 7 yds to the Miss 30

2nd & 3Rush+8 ydsPPA -0.01

Chris Rodriguez Jr. run for 8 yds to the Miss 22 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.31

Kavosiey Smoke run for 1 yd to the Miss 21

2nd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.48

Will Levis pass incomplete to Kavosiey Smoke

3rd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.73

Will Levis pass incomplete to JuTahn McClain

4th & 9Field Goal Missed+39 yds

Matt Ruffolo 39 yd FG MISSED

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.38

Quinshon Judkins run for 2 yds to the Miss 23

2nd & 8Rush-3 ydsPPA -0.52

Quinshon Judkins run for a loss of 3 yards to the Miss 20

3rd & 11Pass Reception+25 ydsPPA +2.95

Jaxson Dart pass complete to Malik Heath for 25 yds to the Miss 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.16

Jaxson Dart pass incomplete to Malik Heath

2nd & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.57

Jaxson Dart run for 7 yds to the Kent 48

3rd & 3Rushing Touchdown+48 ydsPPA +4.87

Quinshon Judkins run for 48 yds for a TD, (Jonathan Cruz KICK)

3rd & 3Kickoff Return (Offense)+85 yds

Jonathan Cruz kickoff for 65 yds , Barion Brown return for 85 yds to the Miss 15

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.07

Tayvion Robinson run for 5 yds to the Miss 10

2nd & 5Rushing Touchdown+10 ydsPPA +2.48

Chris Rodriguez Jr. run for 10 yds for a TD, (Matt Ruffolo PAT BLOCKED)

1st & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +1.25

Quinshon Judkins run for 9 yds to the Miss 34

2nd & 1Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.42

Quinshon Judkins run for 1 yd to the Miss 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.01

Jaxson Dart pass incomplete to Malik Heath

2nd & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.25

Quinshon Judkins run for 6 yds to the Miss 41

3rd & 4Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.72

Jaxson Dart pass incomplete to Jordan Watkins

4th & 4Punt0 yds

Fraser Masin punt for 58 yds, downed at the Kent 1

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.03

Will Levis run for 4 yds to the Kent 5

2nd & 6Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.32

Will Levis pass complete to Chauncey Magwood for 8 yds to the Kent 13 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-4 ydsPPA -0.56

Chris Rodriguez Jr. run for a loss of 4 yards to the Kent 9

2nd & 14Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.06

Will Levis run for 2 yds to the Kent 11

3rd & 12Safety-11 ydsPPA -1.68

Will Levis sacked by Tavius Robinson and Troy Brown for a loss of 11 yards. Intentional Grounding in the endzone for a SAFETY

3rd & 12Kickoff Return (Offense)+28 yds

Chance Poore kickoff for 71 yds , Dayton Wade return for 28 yds to the Miss 37

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.07

Jaxson Dart pass incomplete to Malik Heath

2nd & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.43

Jaxson Dart run for 2 yds to the Miss 39

3rd & 8Pass Reception+26 ydsPPA +3.57

Jaxson Dart pass complete to Malik Heath for 26 yds to the Kent 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.69

Jaxson Dart pass incomplete to Quinshon Judkins

2nd & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.50

Zach Evans run for 2 yds to the Kent 33

3rd & 8Rush+8 ydsPPA +1.46

Jaxson Dart run for 8 yds to the Kent 25 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.14

Zach Evans run for 3 yds to the Kent 22

2nd & 7Penalty-16 yds

Dart, Jaxson pass complete to Heath, Malik for 17 yards to the KENTUCKY5, PENALTY OLEMISS pass interference (Heath, Malik) 16 yards to the KENTUCKY38, NO PLAY.

2nd & 23Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.89

Jaxson Dart pass incomplete to Jonathan Mingo

3rd & 23Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.25

Jaxson Dart pass complete to Casey Kelly for 3 yds to the Kent 35

4th & 20Field Goal Good+53 yds

Jonathan Cruz 53 yd FG GOOD

4th & 20Kickoff Return (Offense)+25 yds

Jonathan Cruz kickoff for 60 yds , Barion Brown return for 25 yds to the Kent 30

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.55

Chris Rodriguez Jr. run for 2 yds to the Kent 32

2nd & 8Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.28

Chris Rodriguez Jr. run for 6 yds to the Kent 38

3rd & 2Rush+7 ydsPPA +1.69

Chris Rodriguez Jr. run for 7 yds to the Kent 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+23 ydsPPA +1.41

Izayah Cummings run for 23 yds to the Miss 32 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.22

JuTahn McClain run for 6 yds to the Miss 26

2nd & 4Rush-2 ydsPPA -0.93

JuTahn McClain run for a loss of 2 yards to the Miss 28

3rd & 6Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.96

Will Levis pass complete to Tayvion Robinson for 8 yds to the Miss 20 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+15 ydsPPA +0.73

Will Levis pass complete to Chris Rodriguez Jr. for 15 yds to the Miss 5 for a 1ST down

1st & 5Passing Touchdown+5 ydsPPA +1.88

Will Levis pass complete to Tayvion Robinson for 5 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed)

1st & 10Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.33

Jaxson Dart pass complete to Malik Heath for 6 yds to the Miss 31

2nd & 4Pass Reception+19 ydsPPA +1.90

Jaxson Dart pass complete to Michael Trigg for 19 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+13 ydsPPA +0.79

Jaxson Dart pass complete to Malik Heath for 13 yds to the Kent 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.75

Jaxson Dart pass incomplete to Michael Trigg

2nd & 10Pass Interception Return0 ydsPPA -3.20

Jaxson Dart pass intercepted Jacquez Jones return for no gain to the Kent 28

1st & 10Pass Reception-1 ydsPPA -0.91

Will Levis pass complete to Jordan Dingle for a loss of 1 yard to the Kent 27

0th & 10End of Half0 yds

End of 2nd Quarter

1st & 10Kickoff Return (Offense)+8 yds

Jonathan Cruz kickoff for 46 yds , JuTahn McClain return for 8 yds to the Kent 27

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.12

Chris Rodriguez Jr. run for 4 yds to the Kent 31

2nd & 6Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.12

Chris Rodriguez Jr. run for 4 yds to the Kent 35

3rd & 2Pass Reception-3 ydsPPA -0.89

Will Levis pass complete to Tayvion Robinson for a loss of 3 yards to the Kent 32

4th & 5Punt0 yds

Colin Goodfellow punt for 53 yds, fair catch by Jordan Watkins at the Miss 15

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.29

Zach Evans run for 2 yds to the Miss 17

2nd & 8Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.12

Zach Evans run for 3 yds to the Miss 20

3rd & 5Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.22

Jaxson Dart pass incomplete to Jordan Watkins

4th & 5Punt0 yds

Fraser Masin punt for 29 yds, downed at the Miss 49

1st & 10Pass Reception+14 ydsPPA +0.79

Will Levis pass complete to Dane Key for 14 yds to the Miss 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.69

Chris Rodriguez Jr. run for no gain to the Miss 35

2nd & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.50

Chris Rodriguez Jr. run for 2 yds to the Miss 33

3rd & 8Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.44

Will Levis pass complete to JuTahn McClain for 7 yds to the Miss 26

4th & 1Rush+1 ydsPPA +1.02

Chris Rodriguez Jr. run for 1 yd to the Miss 25 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.14

Will Levis run for 3 yds to the Miss 22

2nd & 7Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.07

Chris Rodriguez Jr. run for 5 yds to the Miss 17

3rd & 2Passing Touchdown+17 ydsPPA +2.78

Will Levis pass complete to Jordan Dingle for 17 yds for a TD, (Matt Ruffolo KICK)

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.11

JJ Henry run for 5 yds to the Miss 40

2nd & 5Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.86

Jaxson Dart run for 5 yds to the Miss 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.16

Jaxson Dart pass incomplete to Jonathan Mingo

2nd & 10Pass Reception+14 ydsPPA +2.20

Jaxson Dart pass complete to Quinshon Judkins for 14 yds to the Kent 41 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.88

Jaxson Dart pass incomplete to Casey Kelly

2nd & 10Rush+14 ydsPPA +1.38

Quinshon Judkins run for 14 yds to the Kent 27 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+10 ydsPPA +0.16

Quinshon Judkins run for 10 yds to the Kent 17 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.02

Quinshon Judkins run for 4 yds to the Kent 13 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.10

Jaxson Dart pass complete to Zach Evans for 3 yds to the Kent 10

2nd & 7Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.24

Zach Evans run for 1 yd to the Kent 9

3rd & 6Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.27

Jaxson Dart run for 1 yd to the Kent 8

4th & 5Field Goal Good+26 yds

Jonathan Cruz 26 yd FG GOOD

4th & 5Kickoff Return (Offense)+54 yds

Jonathan Cruz kickoff for 58 yds , Barion Brown return for 54 yds to the Miss 39

1st & 10Penalty-5 yds

KENTUCKY Penalty, False Start (Jeremy Flax) to the Miss 44

1st & 15Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.35

Chris Rodriguez Jr. run for 3 yds to the Miss 41

2nd & 12Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.38

Chris Rodriguez Jr. run for 3 yds to the Miss 38

3rd & 9Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.28

Will Levis pass complete to Tayvion Robinson for 6 yds Tayvion Robinson fumbled, recovered by Kent

4th & 3Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -2.54

Will Levis pass incomplete to Chris Rodriguez Jr.

1st & 10Rush-5 ydsPPA -1.46

TEAM run for a loss of 5 yards to the Miss 27 TEAM fumbled, recovered by Miss

2nd & 15Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.24

Jaxson Dart pass incomplete to Jonathan Mingo

3rd & 15Pass Reception+18 ydsPPA +2.94

Jaxson Dart pass complete to Michael Trigg for 18 yds to the Miss 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.42

Quinshon Judkins run for 3 yds to the Miss 48

2nd & 7Pass Reception+19 ydsPPA +1.80

Jaxson Dart pass complete to Malik Heath for 19 yds to the Kent 33 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.64

Quinshon Judkins run for no gain to the Kent 33

2nd & 10Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +0.89

Jaxson Dart pass complete to Jordan Watkins for 11 yds to the Kent 22 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+18 ydsPPA +0.96

Quinshon Judkins run for 18 yds to the Kent 4 for a 1ST down

1st & 4Rush0 ydsPPA -0.65

Quinshon Judkins run for no gain to the Kent 4

2nd & 4Rush-5 ydsPPA -0.68

Quinshon Judkins run for a loss of 5 yards to the Kent 9

3rd & 9Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.04

Jaxson Dart pass complete to Michael Trigg for 4 yds to the Kent 5

4th & 5Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -3.95

Jaxson Dart pass incomplete

1st & 10Rush+17 ydsPPA +0.65

JuTahn McClain run for 17 yds to the Kent 22 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.61

JuTahn McClain run for no gain to the Kent 22

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.29

Will Levis pass incomplete to Barion Brown

3rd & 10Penalty+10 yds

Levis, Will pass incomplete to Key, Dane, PENALTY OLEMISS holding (Young, Isheem) 10 yards to the KENTUCKY32, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN KENTUCKY.

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.39

Chris Rodriguez Jr. run for 6 yds to the Kent 38

2nd & 4Pass Reception+17 ydsPPA +1.66

Will Levis pass complete to Chris Rodriguez Jr. for 17 yds to the Miss 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -1.00

JuTahn McClain run for no gain to the Miss 45

2nd & 10Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.16

Will Levis pass complete to Brenden Bates for 4 yds to the Miss 41

3rd & 6Pass Reception+14 ydsPPA +1.89

Will Levis pass complete to Jordan Dingle for 14 yds to the Miss 27 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty-5 yds

KENTUCKY Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Miss 32

1st & 15Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.85

Chris Rodriguez Jr. run for a loss of 1 yard to the Miss 33

2nd & 16Pass Reception+14 ydsPPA +1.30

Will Levis pass complete to Dane Key for 14 yds to the Miss 19

3rd & 2Fumble Recovery (Opponent)-2 ydsPPA -4.17

Will Levis run for a loss of 2 yards to the Miss 21 Will Levis fumbled, forced by Austin Keys, recovered by Miss AJ Finley

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.67

Jaxson Dart run for a loss of 1 yard to the Miss 20

2nd & 11Rush0 ydsPPA -0.23

Jordan Watkins run for no gain to the Miss 20

3rd & 11Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.07

Quinshon Judkins run for 2 yds to the Miss 22

4th & 9Punt0 yds

Fraser Masin punt for 44 yds , Tayvion Robinson returns for no gain to the Kent 34

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.99

Will Levis pass incomplete to Barion Brown

2nd & 10Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.68

Will Levis pass complete to Chris Rodriguez Jr. for 8 yds to the Kent 42

3rd & 2Pass Reception+51 ydsPPA +3.45

Will Levis pass complete to Barion Brown for 51 yds to the Miss 7 for a 1ST down

1st & 0Penalty-4 yds

KENTUCKY Penalty, Illegal Motion (-4 Yards) to the Miss 12

1st & 12Sack-13 ydsPPA -1.70

Will Levis sacked by Jared Ivey for a loss of 13 yards to the Miss 25 Will Levis fumbled, forced by Jared Ivey, recovered by Miss Tavius Robinson , return for 0 yards

1st & 10Rush-4 ydsPPA -1.02

TEAM run for a loss of 4 yards to the Miss 21

2nd & 14Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.20

TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Miss 20

Situational Analysis

Kentucky

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
100%
1 play
45%
22 plays
0%
3 plays
2nd
0%
1 play
43%
7 plays
50%
8 plays
33%
3 plays
3rd
71%
7 plays
67%
3 plays
67%
3 plays
0%
1 play
4th
50%
2 plays

Ole Miss

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
50%
2 plays
36%
28 plays
2nd
0%
2 plays
75%
4 plays
46%
13 plays
0%
4 plays
3rd
100%
2 plays
0%
3 plays
67%
3 plays
60%
5 plays
4th
0%
1 play