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← Back to GamesDec 23, 2021Week 1

House Prediction

Model Margin

Miami (OH) by 8.5

Home Win Probability

Miami (OH) 70%

Market (consensus)

Miami (OH) -2

Edge: Miami (OH) -2 (6.5 pts)

fitted_v1 · Dec 23, 2021

Line Movement

No line movement to chart

Sportsbook snapshots publish once a line is posted for this game.

Team1Q2Q3Q4QFinal
North TexasNorth Texas
770014
Miami (OH)Miami (OH)
10107027

Scoring Timeline

Q1Q2Q3Q4014283-710-713-1420-1427-14
Miami (OH)North Texas

Drive Chart

Own 20Own 4050Opp 40Opp 20NTM(NTM(NTM(NTM(NTM(NTM(M(NTM(NTM(NTM(NTM(PUNT510ydFG636ydTD1275ydTD875ydPUNT30ydPUNT728ydTD1090ydFG1057ydTO312ydTD430ydTO1061ydEND721ydTD875ydPUNT35ydPUNT39ydPUNT36ydPUNT519ydPUNT3-4ydMISS922ydDOWNS1262ydEND1586yd

Box Score

Team statistics comparing North Texas and Miami (OH)
StatisticNorth TexasMiami (OH)
Passing15-3222-31
Pass Yards228230
Rush Yards89203
Total Yards317433
Turnovers20
3rd Down5-139-16
Penalties5-695-35
Possession21:3938:21

Player Leaders

Player Leaders

North Texas
passing
Austin Aune
15/32, 228 YDS, 2 INT
rushing
Austin Aune
9 CAR, 28 YDS, 1 TD
receiving
Roderic Burns
4 REC, 87 YDS
defense
KD Davis
0.5 TFL
Miami (OH)
passing
Brett Gabbert
22/31, 230 YDS, 2 TD
rushing
Kenny Tracy
14 CAR, 92 YDS, 1 TD
receiving
Jack Sorenson
7 REC, 116 YDS
defense

Play-by-Play

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.45

Ikaika Ragsdale run for 2 yds to the NoTex 27

2nd & 8Rush+8 ydsPPA +1.29

Austin Aune run for 8 yds to the NoTex 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.01

Austin Aune pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.60

Austin Aune pass incomplete to Damon Ward Jr.

3rd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.30

Austin Aune pass incomplete to Jason Pirtle

4th & 10Punt+7 yds

Bernardo Rodriguez punt for 38 yds , Jalen Walker returns for 7 yds to the MiaOh 34

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.99

Brett Gabbert pass incomplete to Andrew Homer

2nd & 10Rush+31 ydsPPA +3.35

Keyon Mozee run for 16 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down NORTH TEXAS Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (Sean-Thomas Faulkner) to the NoTex 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.69

Brett Gabbert pass incomplete to Jack Sorenson

2nd & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.06

Keyon Mozee run for 5 yds to the NoTex 30

3rd & 5Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.92

Brett Gabbert pass incomplete to Jack Sorenson

4th & 5Field Goal Good+48 yds

Graham Nicholson 48 Yd Field Goal

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.70

Austin Aune pass incomplete to Damon Ward Jr.

2nd & 10Pass Reception+30 ydsPPA +3.30

Austin Aune pass complete to Jake Roberts for 30 yds to the MiaOh 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+12 ydsPPA +0.57

Ikaika Ragsdale run for 12 yds to the MiaOh 33 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +0.24

Austin Aune pass complete to Damon Ward Jr. for 10 yds to the MiaOh 23 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.03

Austin Aune pass complete to Roderic Burns for 4 yds to the MiaOh 19

2nd & 6Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.34

Ayo Adeyi run for 1 yd to the MiaOh 18

3rd & 5Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.06

Austin Aune pass complete to Jason Pirtle for 4 yds to the MiaOh 14

4th & 1Rush+2 ydsPPA +0.57

Isaiah Johnson run for 2 yds to the MiaOh 12 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.10

Austin Aune run for 3 yds to the MiaOh 9

2nd & 7Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.06

Isaiah Johnson run for 5 yds to the MiaOh 4

3rd & 2Rush+3 ydsPPA +1.63

Isaiah Johnson run for 3 yds to the MiaOh 1 for a 1ST down

1st & 1Rushing Touchdown+1 ydsPPA +0.94

Isaiah Johnson 1 Yd Run (Ethan Mooney Kick)

1st & 10Kickoff Return (Offense)+14 yds

Ethan Mooney kickoff for 54 yds , Kevin Davis return for 14 yds to the MiaOh 25

1st & 10Sack-8 ydsPPA -1.18

Brett Gabbert sacked by Gabriel Murphy for a loss of 8 yards to the MiaOh 17

2nd & 18Rush+14 ydsPPA +0.64

Keyon Mozee run for 14 yds to the MiaOh 31

3rd & 4Penalty+15 yds

Gabbert, Brett pass incomplete to Sorenson, Jack, PENALTY NORTHTEXAS pass interference (Faulkner, Sean-Thomas) 15 yards to the MIAMIOH46, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN MIAMIOH.

1st & 10Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.37

Brett Gabbert pass complete to Kevin Davis for 6 yds to the NoTex 48

2nd & 4Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.57

Brett Gabbert pass complete to Jack DeJarld for 7 yds to the NoTex 41 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+23 ydsPPA +0.65

Brett Gabbert pass complete to Jack Sorenson for 23 yds to the NoTex 18 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.45

Kevin Davis run for 8 yds to the NoTex 10

2nd & 2Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.18

Kevin Davis run for 2 yds to the NoTex 8 for a 1ST down

1st & 8Rushing Touchdown+8 ydsPPA +2.32

Kenny Tracy 8 Yd Run (Graham Nicholson Kick)

1st & 10Kickoff Return (Offense)+19 yds

Graham Nicholson kickoff for 65 yds , Roderic Burns return for 19 yds to the MIAMIOH 46 NORTH TEXAS Penalty, Offensive Holding (10 Yards) to the NoTex 9

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.35

Austin Aune pass incomplete to Damon Ward Jr.

2nd & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.15

Ayo Adeyi run for no gain to the NoTex 10

3rd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.07

Austin Aune pass incomplete to Khatib Lyles

4th & 10Punt0 yds

Bernardo Rodriguez punt for 70 yds, downed at the MiaOh 20

1st & 10Rush+23 ydsPPA +1.92

Keyon Mozee run for 23 yds to the MiaOh 43 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.16

Brett Gabbert pass incomplete to Jalen Walker

2nd & 10Penalty-5 yds

MIAMI OH Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the MiaOh 38

2nd & 15Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.35

Brett Gabbert pass complete to Andrew Homer for 7 yds to the MiaOh 45

3rd & 8Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +2.75

Brett Gabbert pass complete to Jack Sorenson for 11 yds to the NoTex 44 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Sack-2 ydsPPA -1.42

Brett Gabbert sacked by Grayson Murphy for a loss of 2 yards to the NoTex 46

2nd & 12Penalty-5 yds

MIAMI OH Penalty, Illegal Participation (-5 Yards) to the MiaOh 49

2nd & 17Rush0 ydsPPA -0.73

Darez Snider run for no gain to the MiaOh 49

3rd & 17Pass Reception-1 ydsPPA -0.47

Brett Gabbert pass complete to Jack Sorenson for a loss of 1 yard to the MiaOh 48

4th & 18Punt0 yds

Dom Dzioban punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Roderic Burns at the NoTex 10

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.23

Isaiah Johnson run for 2 yds to the NoTex 12

2nd & 8Pass Reception+43 ydsPPA +3.54

Austin Aune pass complete to Roderic Burns for 43 yds to the MiaOh 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.09

Austin Aune run for 5 yds to the MiaOh 40

2nd & 5Pass Reception+22 ydsPPA +0.79

Austin Aune pass complete to Roderic Burns for 22 yds to the MiaOh 18 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.35

Austin Aune pass incomplete to Detraveon Brown

2nd & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.42

Ikaika Ragsdale run for no gain to the MiaOh 18

3rd & 10Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +1.17

Austin Aune pass complete to Jason Pirtle for 11 yds to the MiaOh 7 for a 1ST down

1st & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.41

Austin Aune pass incomplete to Roderic Burns

2nd & 7Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.06

Ayo Adeyi run for 5 yds to the MiaOh 2

3rd & 2Rushing Touchdown+2 ydsPPA +2.54

Austin Aune 2 Yd Run (Ethan Mooney Kick)

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.70

Keyon Mozee run for no gain to the MiaOh 25

2nd & 10Pass Reception+16 ydsPPA +2.12

Brett Gabbert pass complete to Jack Sorenson for 16 yds to the MiaOh 41 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+27 ydsPPA +1.79

Brett Gabbert pass complete to Jalen Walker for 10 yds to the MIAMIOH 49 for a 1ST down NORTH TEXAS Penalty, Roughing Passer (KD Davis) to the NoTex 32 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.61

Brett Gabbert pass incomplete to Jalen Walker

2nd & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.49

Keyon Mozee run for 8 yds to the NoTex 24

3rd & 2Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.40

Keyon Mozee run for 6 yds to the NoTex 18 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.35

Brett Gabbert pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.04

Brett Gabbert pass complete to Jeremiah Batiste for 5 yds to the NoTex 13

3rd & 5Rush-5 ydsPPA -1.13

Kevin Davis run for a loss of 5 yards to the NoTex 18

4th & 10Field Goal Good+36 yds

Graham Nicholson 36 Yd Field Goal

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.30

Ayo Adeyi run for 3 yds to the NoTex 28

2nd & 7Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +1.32

Austin Aune pass complete to Damon Ward Jr. for 9 yds to the NoTex 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Interception Return+31 ydsPPA -1.95

Austin Aune pass intercepted John Saunders Jr. return for 31 yds to the NoTex 30

1st & 10Pass Reception+20 ydsPPA +0.30

Brett Gabbert pass complete to Rhett Williams for 20 yds to the NoTex 10 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.29

Keyon Mozee run for no gain to the NoTex 10

2nd & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.04

Keyon Mozee run for 5 yds to the NoTex 5

3rd & 5Passing Touchdown+5 ydsPPA +2.76

Kevin Davis 5 Yd pass from Brett Gabbert (Graham Nicholson Kick)

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.30

Ayo Adeyi run for 3 yds to the NoTex 28

2nd & 7Rush+8 ydsPPA +1.23

Austin Aune run for 8 yds to the NoTex 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.64

Ikaika Ragsdale run for 2 yds to the NoTex 38

2nd & 8Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.08

Austin Aune run for 5 yds to the NoTex 43

3rd & 3Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +1.87

Austin Aune pass complete to Damon Ward Jr. for 7 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+20 ydsPPA +1.03

Austin Aune pass complete to Damon Ward Jr. for 20 yds to the MiaOh 30 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+15 ydsPPA +0.26

Austin Aune pass complete to Damon Ward Jr. for 15 yds to the MiaOh 15 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.25

Ikaika Ragsdale run for 1 yd to the MiaOh 14

2nd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.34

Austin Aune pass incomplete to Asher Alberding

3rd & 9Pass Interception Return+13 ydsPPA -3.85

Austin Aune pass intercepted Jacquez Warren return for 13 yds to the MiaOh 13

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.40

Kenny Tracy run for no gain to the MiaOh 13

2nd & 10Rush+21 ydsPPA +1.76

Kenny Tracy run for 21 yds to the MiaOh 34 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.39

Brett Gabbert run for 6 yds to the MiaOh 40

2nd & 4Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +1.10

Brett Gabbert pass complete to Jack Sorenson for 10 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.14

Brett Gabbert pass complete to Rhett Williams for 4 yds to the NoTex 46

2nd & 6Sack-10 ydsPPA -2.83

Brett Gabbert sacked by Dion Novil and Gabriel Murphy for a loss of 5 yards to the MIAMIOH 49 MIAMI OH Penalty, Offensive Holding (-5 Yards) to the MiaOh 44

2nd & 16Fumble Recovery (Own)-10 ydsPPA -1.10

Brett Gabbert sacked by KD Davis and Kevin Wood for a loss of 10 yards to the MiaOh 34 Brett Gabbert fumbled, forced by KD Davis, recovered by MiaOh Brett Gabbert , return for 0 yards

0th & 16End of Half0 yds

End of 2nd Quarter

1st & 10Pass Reception+2 ydsPPA -0.45

Brett Gabbert pass complete to Kevin Davis for 2 yds to the MiaOh 27

2nd & 8Penalty-5 yds

MIAMI OH Penalty, False Start (Kevin Davis) to the MiaOh 22

2nd & 13Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.10

Brett Gabbert pass complete to Jack Sorenson for 6 yds to the MiaOh 28

3rd & 7Pass Reception+51 ydsPPA +4.30

Brett Gabbert pass complete to Jack Sorenson for 51 yds to the NoTex 21 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.39

Brett Gabbert pass incomplete to Jalen Walker

2nd & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.26

Kenny Tracy run for 2 yds to the NoTex 19

3rd & 8Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.76

Brett Gabbert run for 8 yds to the NoTex 11 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.29

Kenny Tracy run for no gain to the NoTex 11

2nd & 10Passing Touchdown+11 ydsPPA +2.81

Nate Muersch 11 Yd pass from Brett Gabbert (Graham Nicholson Kick)

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.30

Ikaika Ragsdale run for 3 yds to the NoTex 28

2nd & 7Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.36

Ikaika Ragsdale run for 2 yds to the NoTex 30

3rd & 5Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.37

Austin Aune pass incomplete to Damon Ward Jr.

4th & 5Punt0 yds

Bernardo Rodriguez punt for 66 yds, downed at the MiaOh 4

1st & 10Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.11

Brett Gabbert pass complete to Kevin Davis for 3 yds to the MiaOh 7

2nd & 7Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.05

Darez Snider run for 5 yds to the MiaOh 12

3rd & 2Pass Reception+1 ydsPPA -0.20

Brett Gabbert pass complete to Jalen Walker for 1 yd to the MiaOh 13

4th & 1Punt0 yds

Dom Dzioban punt for 44 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the NoTex 43

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.16

Austin Aune pass incomplete to Isaiah Johnson

2nd & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.31

Austin Aune run for 6 yds to the NoTex 49

3rd & 4Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.96

Austin Aune pass incomplete

4th & 4Punt+10 yds

Bernardo Rodriguez punt for 47 yds , Jalen Walker returns for 10 yds to the MiaOh 14

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.06

Kevin Davis run for 4 yds to the MiaOh 18

2nd & 6Pass Reception+16 ydsPPA +1.39

Brett Gabbert pass complete to Jalen Walker for 16 yds to the MiaOh 34 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.40

Kenny Tracy run for 3 yds to the MiaOh 37

2nd & 7Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.53

Brett Gabbert run for 2 yds to the MiaOh 39

3rd & 5Sack-6 ydsPPA -0.95

Brett Gabbert sacked by Dion Novil for a loss of 6 yards to the MiaOh 33

4th & 11Punt0 yds

Dom Dzioban punt for 52 yds, downed at the NoTex 15

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.08

Ayo Adeyi run for 5 yds to the NoTex 20

2nd & 5Sack-2 ydsPPA -0.60

Austin Aune sacked by Austin Ertl for a loss of 2 yards to the NoTex 18

3rd & 7Sack-7 ydsPPA -0.23

Austin Aune sacked by Lonnie Phelps for a loss of 7 yards to the NoTex 11

4th & 14Punt+4 yds

Bernardo Rodriguez punt for 49 yds , Jalen Walker returns for 4 yds to the MiaOh 44

1st & 10Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.67

Brett Gabbert pass complete to Jalen Walker for 7 yds to the NoTex 49

2nd & 3Rush+4 ydsPPA +0.22

Kevin Davis run for 4 yds to the NoTex 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.55

Kenny Tracy run for 2 yds to the NoTex 43

2nd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.07

Brett Gabbert pass incomplete to Kevin Davis

3rd & 8Rush+19 ydsPPA +2.42

Brett Gabbert run for 4 yds to the NoTex 39 for a 1ST down NORTH TEXAS Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Gabriel Murphy) to the NoTex 24 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty-10 yds

Gabbert, Brett pass incomplete to Walker, Jalen, PENALTY MIAMIOH holding (Vaughan, Sam) 10 yards to the NORTHTEXAS34, NO PLAY.

1st & 20Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.87

Brett Gabbert pass incomplete to Jack Sorenson

2nd & 20Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.16

Kenny Tracy run for 4 yds to the NoTex 30

3rd & 16Rush-4 ydsPPA -1.65

Kenny Tracy run for a loss of 4 yards to the NoTex 34

4th & 20Field Goal Missed+52 yds

Graham Nicholson 52 yd FG MISSED

1st & 10Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +1.15

Austin Aune pass complete to Detraveon Brown for 12 yds to the NoTex 46 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.16

Ikaika Ragsdale run for 4 yds to the 50 yard line

2nd & 6Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +1.10

Austin Aune pass complete to Damon Ward Jr. for 9 yds to the MiaOh 41 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -1.09

Ikaika Ragsdale run for a loss of 1 yard to the MiaOh 42

2nd & 11Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.05

Austin Aune pass incomplete

3rd & 11Pass Reception+14 ydsPPA +2.61

Austin Aune pass complete to Jason Pirtle for 14 yds to the MiaOh 28 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.51

Austin Aune pass incomplete to Detraveon Brown

2nd & 10Pass Reception+18 ydsPPA +0.76

Austin Aune pass complete to Roderic Burns for 18 yds to the MiaOh 10 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.45

Isaiah Johnson run for 8 yds to the MiaOh 2

2nd & 2Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.39

Ikaika Ragsdale run for 1 yd to the MiaOh 1

3rd & 1Rush-3 ydsPPA -0.53

Ikaika Ragsdale run for a loss of 3 yards to the MiaOh 4

4th & 4Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -4.02

Austin Aune pass incomplete to Christian Lee

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.23

Kenny Tracy run for 1 yd to the MiaOh 5

2nd & 9Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.09

Kevin Davis run for 2 yds to the MiaOh 7

3rd & 7Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.64

Brett Gabbert run for 8 yds to the MiaOh 15 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+41 ydsPPA +3.21

Kenny Tracy run for 41 yds to the NoTex 44 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.09

Kevin Davis run for 5 yds to the NoTex 39

2nd & 5Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.76

Kevin Davis run for 1 yd to the NoTex 38

3rd & 4Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +1.27

Brett Gabbert pass complete to Kevin Davis for 8 yds to the NoTex 30 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.35

Kenny Tracy run for 7 yds to the NoTex 23

2nd & 3Rush+9 ydsPPA -0.09

Kevin Davis run for 9 yds to the NoTex 14 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.07

Kenny Tracy run for 5 yds to the NoTex 9

2nd & 5Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.11

Kevin Davis run for 3 yds to the NoTex 6

3rd & 2Rush+2 ydsPPA +0.90

Kenny Tracy run for 2 yds to the NoTex 4 for a 1ST down

1st & 4Rush-2 ydsPPA -0.84

Brett Gabbert run for a loss of 2 yards to the NoTex 6

2nd & 6Rush-2 ydsPPA -0.42

Brett Gabbert run for a loss of 2 yards to the NoTex 8

3rd & 8Rush-2 ydsPPA -0.57

Brett Gabbert run for a loss of 2 yards to the NoTex 10

Situational Analysis

North Texas

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
100%
1 play
30%
27 plays
2nd
0%
1 play
50%
4 plays
67%
15 plays
0%
1 play
3rd
75%
4 plays
0%
3 plays
20%
5 plays
100%
1 play
4th
100%
1 play
0%
1 play

Miami (OH)

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
0%
1 play
41%
32 plays
0%
1 play
2nd
33%
3 plays
43%
7 plays
69%
13 plays
50%
6 plays
3rd
67%
3 plays
40%
5 plays
83%
6 plays
0%
2 plays
4th