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← Back to GamesJan 2, 2022Week 1

House Prediction

Model Margin

Ole Miss by 4.5

Home Win Probability

Ole Miss 62%

Market (consensus)

Ole Miss -1

Edge: Ole Miss -1 (3.5 pts)

fitted_v1 · Jan 2, 2022

Line Movement

No line movement to chart

Sportsbook snapshots publish once a line is posted for this game.

Team1Q2Q3Q4QFinal
BaylorBaylor
0701421
Ole MissOle Miss
00707

Scoring Timeline

Q1Q2Q3Q4014280-77-77-147-21
Ole MissBaylor

Drive Chart

Own 20Own 4050Opp 40Opp 20OMBAYOMBAYOMBAYOMOMBAYOMBAYOMBAYBAYOMBAYOMBAYOMBAYOMBAYOMBAYOMBAYTO20ydDOWNS49ydPUNT56ydPUNT517ydMISS1437ydDOWNS48ydTD1028ydPUNT619ydPUNT453ydPUNT57ydPUNT31ydPUNT39ydEND332ydPUNT35ydPUNT59ydPUNT415ydTD672ydTO1149ydMISS1374ydTD580ydTO3-7ydTD515ydDOWNS1139ydPUNT621ydDOWNS730ydEND1-1yd

Box Score

Team statistics comparing Baylor and Ole Miss
StatisticBaylorOle Miss
Passing7-1717-34
Pass Yards40184
Rush Yards279138
Total Yards319322
Turnovers13
3rd Down7-156-22
Penalties5-557-49
Possession28:2431:36

Player Leaders

Player Leaders

Baylor
passing
Gerry Bohannon
7/17, 40 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
rushing
Abram Smith
25 CAR, 172 YDS
receiving
Drew Estrada
2 REC, 14 YDS
defense
Terrel Bernard
2 TFL, 1 PD
Ole Miss
passing
Luke Altmyer
15/28, 174 YDS, 1 TD, 2 INT
rushing
Jerrion Ealy
12 CAR, 65 YDS
receiving
Dontario Drummond
9 REC, 104 YDS
defense

Play-by-Play

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.70

Jerrion Ealy run for no gain to the Miss 25

2nd & 10Pass Interception Return0 ydsPPA -0.22

Matt Corral pass intercepted JT Woods return for no gain to the Bayl 38

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -1.09

Abram Smith run for no gain to the Bayl 38

2nd & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.76

Abram Smith run for 8 yds to the Bayl 46

3rd & 2Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.00

Gerry Bohanon pass incomplete

4th & 2Pass Reception+1 ydsPPA -0.72

Gerry Bohanon pass complete to R.J. Sneed for 1 yd to the Bayl 47

1st & 10Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.77

Matt Corral pass complete to Dontario Drummond for 8 yds to the Bayl 39

2nd & 2Rush+5 ydsPPA -0.10

Dontario Drummond run for 5 yds to the Bayl 34 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Sack-7 ydsPPA -2.03

Matt Corral sacked by Garmon Randolph for a loss of 7 yards to the Bayl 41

2nd & 17Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.38

Jerrion Ealy run for 3 yds to the Bayl 38

3rd & 14Pass Reception+2 ydsPPA -0.56

Matt Corral pass complete to Jerrion Ealy for 2 yds to the Bayl 36

4th & 12Penalty-5 yds

OLE MISS Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the Bayl 41

4th & 17Punt0 yds

Mac Brown punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Trestan Ebner at the Bayl 8

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.36

Abram Smith run for 7 yds to the Bayl 15

2nd & 3Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.10

Gerry Bohanon run for 5 yds to the Bayl 20 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty-10 yds

BAYLOR Penalty, Offensive Holding (Khalil Keith) to the Bayl 10

1st & 20Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.15

Abram Smith run for 8 yds to the Bayl 18

2nd & 12Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.03

Gerry Bohanon pass complete to Drew Estrada for 4 yds to the Bayl 22

3rd & 8Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.07

Gerry Bohanon run for 3 yds to the Bayl 25

4th & 5Punt+15 yds

Issac Power punt for 59 yds , Dontario Drummond returns for 15 yds to the Miss 31

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.57

Henry Parrish Jr. run for 2 yds to the Miss 33

2nd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.65

Matt Corral pass incomplete

3rd & 8Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.28

Matt Corral run for 7 yds to the Miss 40

4th & 1Rush+1 ydsPPA +1.88

Matt Corral run for 1 yd to the Miss 41 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+12 ydsPPA +1.05

Matt Corral run for 12 yds to the Bayl 47 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.05

Matt Corral pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.63

Henry Parrish Jr. run for 2 yds to the Bayl 45

3rd & 8Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.38

Henry Parrish Jr. run for 3 yds to the Bayl 42

4th & 5Rush+15 ydsPPA +2.93

Matt Corral run for 15 yds to the Bayl 27 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+11 ydsPPA +0.17

Snoop Conner run for 11 yds to the Bayl 16 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty-5 yds

OLE MISS Penalty, False Start (Nick Broeker) to the Bayl 21

1st & 15Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.38

Matt Corral pass incomplete

2nd & 15Sack-5 ydsPPA -1.56

Matt Corral sacked by Jalen Pitre and Siaki Ika for a loss of 5 yards to the Bayl 26

3rd & 20Sack-6 ydsPPA -1.86

Matt Corral sacked by Cole Maxwell for a loss of 6 yards to the Bayl 32

4th & 26Field Goal Missed+49 yds

Cale Nation 49 yd FG MISSED

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.39

Gerry Bohanon run for 6 yds to the Bayl 38

2nd & 4Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.89

Trestan Ebner run for 1 yd to the Bayl 39

3rd & 3Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.60

Abram Smith run for 1 yd to the Bayl 40

4th & 2Rush0 ydsPPA -0.37

Abram Smith run for no gain to the Bayl 40

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.27

Jerrion Ealy run for 3 yds to the Bayl 37

2nd & 7Pass Reception+1 ydsPPA -0.72

Luke Altmyer pass complete to Dontario Drummond for 1 yd to the Bayl 36

3rd & 6Rush+8 ydsPPA +1.41

Jerrion Ealy run for 8 yds to the Bayl 28 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.39

Jerrion Ealy run for 1 yd to the Bayl 27

2nd & 9Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.49

Snoop Conner run for 1 yd to the Bayl 26

3rd & 8Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.11

Snoop Conner run for 4 yds to the Bayl 22

4th & 4Rush+7 ydsPPA +1.20

Luke Altmyer run for 7 yds to the Bayl 15 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.10

Snoop Conner run for 3 yds to the Bayl 12

2nd & 7Pass Reception0 ydsPPA -0.33

Luke Altmyer pass complete to Dontario Drummond for no gain to the Bayl 12

3rd & 7Interception Return Touchdown+96 ydsPPA -11.01

Luke Altmyer pass intercepted for a TD Al Walcott return for 96 yds for a TD (Isaiah Hankins KICK)

1st & 10Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.11

Luke Altmyer pass complete to Henry Parrish Jr. for 4 yds to the Miss 29

2nd & 6Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.11

Henry Parrish Jr. run for 4 yds to the Miss 33

3rd & 2Rush+10 ydsPPA +1.83

Dontario Drummond run for 10 yds to the Miss 43 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.93

Luke Altmyer run for 1 yd to the Miss 44

2nd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.93

Luke Altmyer pass incomplete

3rd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.56

Luke Altmyer pass incomplete

4th & 9Punt0 yds

Mac Brown punt for 51 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Bayl 5

1st & 10Rush+49 ydsPPA +3.38

Abram Smith run for 49 yds to the Miss 46 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty-10 yds

BAYLOR Penalty, Offensive Holding (Khalil Keith) to the Bayl 44

1st & 20Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +1.17

Gerry Bohanon pass complete to Drew Estrada for 10 yds to the Miss 46

2nd & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.85

Drew Estrada run for 1 yd to the Miss 45

3rd & 9Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.37

Trestan Ebner run for 3 yds to the Miss 42

4th & 6Punt0 yds

Issac Power punt for 34 yds, downed at the Miss 8

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.32

Luke Altmyer run for no gain to the Miss 8

2nd & 10Penalty-4 yds

OLE MISS Penalty, False Start (Caleb Warren) to the Miss 4

2nd & 14Pass Reception+18 ydsPPA +1.03

Luke Altmyer pass complete to Jonathan Mingo for 18 yds to the Miss 22 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.51

Jerrion Ealy run for 1 yd to the Miss 23

2nd & 9Sack-10 ydsPPA -0.58

Luke Altmyer sacked by TEAM for a loss of 10 yards to the Miss 13 OLE MISS Penalty, Intentional Grounding (Luke Altmyer) to the Miss 13

3rd & 19Pass Reception+2 ydsPPA -0.02

Luke Altmyer pass complete to Jerrion Ealy for 2 yds to the Miss 15

4th & 17Punt+12 yds

Mac Brown punt for 51 yds , Trestan Ebner returns for 12 yds to the Miss 27 OLE MISS Penalty, Personal Foul (Ashanti Cistrunk) to the Miss 39

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.81

Gerry Bohanon pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.79

Abram Smith run for 1 yd to the Miss 38

3rd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.02

Gerry Bohanon pass incomplete

4th & 9Punt0 yds

Issac Power punt for 22 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Miss 16

1st & 10Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.46

Luke Altmyer pass complete to Dontario Drummond for 7 yds to the Miss 23

2nd & 3Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.71

Luke Altmyer pass incomplete

3rd & 3Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.21

Luke Altmyer run for 2 yds to the Miss 25

4th & 1Punt+7 yds

Mac Brown punt for 58 yds , Trestan Ebner returns for 7 yds to the Bayl 32 BAYLOR Penalty, Illegal Block (10 Yards) to the Bayl 14

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.27

Abram Smith run for 2 yds to the Bayl 16

2nd & 8Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.28

Abram Smith run for 7 yds to the Bayl 23

3rd & 1Rush+23 ydsPPA +2.46

Abram Smith run for 23 yds to the Bayl 46 for a 1ST down

0th & 1End of Half0 yds

End of 2nd Quarter

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.96

Gerry Bohanon pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.06

Abram Smith run for 5 yds to the Bayl 38

3rd & 5Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.57

Gerry Bohanon pass incomplete

4th & 5Punt0 yds

Issac Power punt for 48 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Miss 14

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.35

Jerrion Ealy run for 1 yd to the Miss 15

2nd & 9Rush+12 ydsPPA +1.08

Luke Altmyer run for 12 yds to the Miss 27 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Sack-4 ydsPPA -1.12

Luke Altmyer sacked by Terrel Bernard for a loss of 4 yards to the Miss 23

2nd & 14Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.20

Luke Altmyer pass incomplete

3rd & 14Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.09

Luke Altmyer pass incomplete

4th & 14Punt+8 yds

Mac Brown punt for 45 yds , Trestan Ebner returns for 8 yds to the Bayl 40

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.91

Abram Smith run for 1 yd to the Bayl 41

2nd & 9Penalty+15 yds

OLE MISS Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Deane Leonard) to the Miss 44 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.97

Gerry Bohanon pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.07

Gerry Bohanon pass incomplete

3rd & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -1.03

Gerry Bohanon run for a loss of 1 yard to the Miss 45

4th & 11Punt0 yds

Issac Power punt for 17 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Miss 28

1st & 10Penalty+15 yds

BAYLOR Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Kalon Barnes) to the Miss 43 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.17

Snoop Conner run for 4 yds to the Miss 47

2nd & 6Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.92

Luke Altmyer run for 1 yd to the Miss 48

3rd & 5Rush+6 ydsPPA +2.01

Snoop Conner run for 6 yds to the Bayl 46 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.31

Snoop Conner run for 6 yds to the Bayl 40

2nd & 4Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.34

Snoop Conner run for 3 yds to the Bayl 37

3rd & 1Passing Touchdown+37 ydsPPA +3.57

Luke Altmyer pass complete to Braylon Sanders for 37 yds for a TD

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.49

Abram Smith run for 1 yd to the Bayl 22

2nd & 9Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.31

Abram Smith run for 7 yds to the Bayl 29

3rd & 2Rush+9 ydsPPA +1.56

Abram Smith run for 9 yds to the Bayl 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -1.09

Trestan Ebner run for no gain to the Bayl 38

2nd & 10Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +1.03

Gerry Bohanon pass complete to R.J. Sneed for 9 yds to the Bayl 47

3rd & 1Rush+3 ydsPPA +1.17

Abram Smith run for 3 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.11

Gerry Bohanon pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.82

Gerry Bohanon pass complete to Drake Dabney for 8 yds to the Miss 42

3rd & 2Rush+3 ydsPPA +0.99

Dillon Doyle run for 3 yds to the Miss 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +0.82

Abram Smith run for 9 yds to the Miss 30

2nd & 1Pass Interception Return+9 ydsPPA -4.68

Gerry Bohanon pass intercepted Miles Battle return for 9 yds to the Miss 9

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.28

Dontario Drummond run for 1 yd to the Miss 10

2nd & 9Pass Reception+2 ydsPPA -0.11

Luke Altmyer pass complete to Snoop Conner for 2 yds to the Miss 12

3rd & 7Pass Reception+29 ydsPPA +2.56

Luke Altmyer pass complete to Dontario Drummond for 29 yds to the Miss 41 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception0 ydsPPA -1.14

Luke Altmyer pass complete to Snoop Conner for no gain to the Miss 41

2nd & 10Pass Reception+15 ydsPPA +2.38

Luke Altmyer pass complete to Jonathan Mingo for 15 yds to the Bayl 44 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Sack-1 ydsPPA -1.19

Luke Altmyer sacked by Al Walcott for a loss of 1 yard to the Bayl 45

2nd & 11Rush0 ydsPPA -1.05

Jerrion Ealy run for no gain to the Bayl 45

3rd & 11Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.15

Jerrion Ealy run for 4 yds to the Bayl 41

4th & 7Pass Reception+18 ydsPPA +3.15

Luke Altmyer pass complete to Dontario Drummond for 18 yds to the Bayl 23 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.42

Snoop Conner run for no gain to the Bayl 23

2nd & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.41

Snoop Conner run for 1 yd to the Bayl 22

3rd & 9Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.04

Luke Altmyer run for 5 yds to the Bayl 17

4th & 4Field Goal Missed+35 yds

Cale Nation 35 yd FG MISSED

1st & 10Rush+11 ydsPPA +0.78

Abram Smith run for 11 yds to the Bayl 31 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.14

Gerry Bohanon run for 4 yds to the Bayl 35

2nd & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.84

Gerry Bohanon pass incomplete

3rd & 6Rush+17 ydsPPA +2.91

Trestan Ebner run for 17 yds to the Miss 48 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rushing Touchdown+48 ydsPPA +3.69

Monaray Baldwin run for 48 yds for a TD (Isaiah Hankins KICK)

1st & 10Sack-10 ydsPPA -1.22

Luke Altmyer sacked by Terrel Bernard for a loss of 10 yards to the Miss 15

2nd & 20Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.03

Luke Altmyer run for 3 yds to the Miss 18

3rd & 17Pass Interception Return+16 ydsPPA +0.33

Luke Altmyer pass intercepted JT Woods return for 16 yds to the Miss 15

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.10

Gerry Bohanon run for 3 yds to the Miss 12

2nd & 7Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.18

Abram Smith run for 2 yds to the Miss 10

3rd & 5Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +1.15

Gerry Bohanon pass complete to Abram Smith for 6 yds to the Miss 4 for a 1ST down

1st & 4Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.38

Abram Smith run for 2 yds to the Miss 2

2nd & 2Passing Touchdown+2 ydsPPA +2.07

Gerry Bohanon pass complete to Tyquan Thornton for 2 yds for a TD (Isaiah Hankins KICK)

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.91

Jerrion Ealy run for 8 yds to the Miss 33

2nd & 2Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.13

Luke Altmyer pass incomplete

3rd & 2Rush+31 ydsPPA +3.29

Jerrion Ealy run for 31 yds to the Bayl 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.72

Luke Altmyer pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.32

Snoop Conner run for 3 yds to the Bayl 33

3rd & 7Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.35

Luke Altmyer run for 3 yds to the Bayl 30

4th & 4Rush+5 ydsPPA +1.70

Jerrion Ealy run for 5 yds to the Bayl 25 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.45

Luke Altmyer pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.61

Luke Altmyer pass incomplete

3rd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.88

Luke Altmyer pass incomplete

4th & 10Sack-11 ydsPPA -2.36

Luke Altmyer sacked by Bryson Jackson for a loss of 11 yards to the Bayl 36

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.85

Abram Smith run for 1 yd to the Bayl 37

2nd & 9Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.07

Abram Smith run for 5 yds to the Bayl 42

3rd & 4Rush+13 ydsPPA +2.45

Trestan Ebner run for 13 yds to the Miss 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty-10 yds

BAYLOR Penalty, Offensive Holding (Jacob Gall) to the Bayl 45

1st & 20Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.71

Abram Smith run for 8 yds to the Miss 47

2nd & 12Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.61

Abram Smith run for 2 yds to the Miss 45

3rd & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.54

Trestan Ebner run for 2 yds to the Miss 43

4th & 8Punt0 yds

Issac Power punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Dontario Drummond at the Miss 7

1st & 10Pass Reception+25 ydsPPA +1.35

Luke Altmyer pass complete to Dontario Drummond for 25 yds to the Miss 32 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.15

Luke Altmyer run for 4 yds to the Miss 36

2nd & 6Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +1.57

Luke Altmyer pass complete to Dontario Drummond for 11 yds to the Miss 47 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.11

Luke Altmyer pass complete to Dontario Drummond for 5 yds to the Bayl 48

2nd & 5Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.18

Luke Altmyer pass incomplete

3rd & 5Sack-7 ydsPPA -1.81

Luke Altmyer sacked by Bryson Jackson for a loss of 7 yards to the Miss 45

4th & 12Sack-8 ydsPPA -0.02

Luke Altmyer sacked by Brayden Utley for a loss of 8 yards to the Miss 37

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.94

TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Miss 38

Situational Analysis

Baylor

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
0%
1 play
32%
19 plays
100%
3 plays
2nd
67%
3 plays
0%
2 plays
64%
11 plays
0%
2 plays
3rd
67%
6 plays
75%
4 plays
0%
5 plays
4th
0%
2 plays

Ole Miss

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
27%
30 plays
0%
1 play
2nd
0%
3 plays
20%
5 plays
14%
14 plays
17%
6 plays
3rd
75%
4 plays
67%
3 plays
33%
9 plays
17%
6 plays
4th
100%
1 play
100%
3 plays
50%
2 plays
0%
1 play