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← Back to GamesJan 1, 2022Week 1

House Prediction

Model Margin

Penn State by 1

Home Win Probability

Arkansas 42%

Market (consensus)

Arkansas -3.5

Edge: Penn State +3.5 (4.5 pts)

fitted_v1 · Jan 1, 2022

Line Movement

No line movement to chart

Sportsbook snapshots publish once a line is posted for this game.

Team1Q2Q3Q4QFinal
Penn StatePenn State
0100010
ArkansasArkansas
7017024

Scoring Timeline

Q1Q2Q3Q4014287-07-77-1014-1017-1024-10
ArkansasPenn State

Drive Chart

Own 20Own 4050Opp 40Opp 20PSARKPSARKPSARKPSARKPSARKPSARKPSARKPSARKPSARKPSARKPSARKPSARKMISS943ydTO757ydTO26ydPUNT31ydPUNT38ydTD1261ydPUNT739ydPUNT3-4ydTD142ydPUNT615ydFG761ydPUNT66ydDOWNS648ydTO426ydEND1-3ydTD775ydPUNT32ydFG1045ydPUNT612ydTD479ydTO1465ydPUNT830ydPUNT615ydEND945yd

Box Score

Team statistics comparing Penn State and Arkansas
StatisticPenn StateArkansas
Passing15-3514-20
Pass Yards19898
Rush Yards125353
Total Yards323451
Turnovers22
3rd Down6-154-14
Penalties3-106-40
Possession24:0735:53

Player Leaders

Player Leaders

Penn State
passing
Sean Clifford
14/32, 195 YDS, 1 TD, 2 INT
rushing
Sean Clifford
12 CAR, 46 YDS
receiving
Parker Washington
7 REC, 98 YDS
defense
Arkansas
passing
KJ Jefferson
14/19, 98 YDS, 1 INT
rushing
KJ Jefferson
20 CAR, 110 YDS, 1 TD
receiving
De'Vion Warren
3 REC, 33 YDS
defense

Play-by-Play

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.45

Keyvone Lee run for 2 yds to the PnSt 27

2nd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.48

Sean Clifford pass incomplete

3rd & 8Rush+9 ydsPPA +1.86

Sean Clifford run for 9 yds to the PnSt 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.41

Keyvone Lee run for 3 yds to the PnSt 39

2nd & 7Pass Reception+42 ydsPPA +2.96

Sean Clifford pass complete to Parker Washington for 42 yds to the Ark 19 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.36

Sean Clifford pass incomplete to Brenton Strange

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.45

Sean Clifford pass incomplete

3rd & 10Sack-13 ydsPPA -3.13

Sean Clifford sacked by Hayden Henry for a loss of 13 yards to the Ark 32 PENN ST Penalty, Intentional Grounding ( Yards) to the Ark 32

4th & 23Field Goal Missed+50 yds

Jake Pinegar 50 yd FG MISSED

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.93

KJ Jefferson run for no gain to the Ark 32

2nd & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.43

Dominique Johnson run for 1 yd to the Ark 33

3rd & 9Pass Reception+21 ydsPPA +3.33

KJ Jefferson pass complete to Tyson Morris for 21 yds to the PnSt 46 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+25 ydsPPA +0.91

Dominique Johnson run for 25 yds to the PnSt 21 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.12

Dominique Johnson run for 3 yds to the PnSt 18

2nd & 7Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.23

Dominique Johnson run for 7 yds to the PnSt 11 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Interception Return0 ydsPPA -4.48

KJ Jefferson pass intercepted, touchback. Ji'Ayir Brown return for no gain

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.29

Parker Washington run for 6 yds to the PnSt 26

2nd & 4Pass Interception Return0 ydsPPA -0.90

Sean Clifford pass intercepted Greg Brooks Jr. return for no gain to the PnSt 42

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.70

Dominique Johnson run for 1 yd to the PnSt 41

2nd & 9Sack0 ydsPPA -1.04

KJ Jefferson sacked by Curtis Jacobs for 0 yards to the PnSt 41

3rd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.99

KJ Jefferson pass incomplete to Tyson Morris

4th & 9Punt0 yds

Reid Bauer punt for 33 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the PnSt 8

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.21

Noah Cain run for 2 yds to the PnSt 10

2nd & 8Pass Reception-1 ydsPPA -0.23

Sean Clifford pass complete to Brenton Strange for a loss of 1 yard to the PnSt 9

3rd & 9Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.08

Sean Clifford pass complete to Noah Cain for 7 yds to the PnSt 16

4th & 2Punt0 yds

Jordan Stout punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Nathan Parodi at the Ark 39

1st & 10Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.40

KJ Jefferson pass complete to Bryce Stephens for 6 yds Bryce Stephens fumbled, recovered by Ark

2nd & 4Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.77

Raheim Sanders run for 7 yds to the PnSt 48 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Sack-4 ydsPPA -1.97

KJ Jefferson sacked by Smith Vilbert for a loss of 4 yards to the Ark 48

2nd & 14Pass Reception-1 ydsPPA -0.95

KJ Jefferson pass complete to Bryce Stephens for a loss of 1 yard to the Ark 47

3rd & 15Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +1.28

KJ Jefferson pass complete to Warren Thompson for 12 yds to the PnSt 41

4th & 3Rush+13 ydsPPA +2.56

KJ Jefferson run for 13 yds to the PnSt 28 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+14 ydsPPA +0.22

Raheim Sanders run for 14 yds to the PnSt 14 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty-5 yds

Jefferson, KJ pass complete to Kern, Blake for 11 yards to the PENNST3, PENALTY ARKANSAS ineligible downfield on pass 5 yards to the PENNST19, NO PLAY.

1st & 15Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.10

Raheim Sanders run for 3 yds to the PnSt 16

2nd & 12Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.03

KJ Jefferson run for 5 yds to the PnSt 11

3rd & 7Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.04

KJ Jefferson run for 5 yds to the PnSt 6

4th & 2Rush+3 ydsPPA +1.47

Raheim Sanders run for 3 yds to the PnSt 3 for a 1ST down

1st & 3Rushing Touchdown+3 ydsPPA +1.46

Raheim Sanders run for 3 yds for a TD, (Cam Little KICK)

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.11

Sean Clifford run for 4 yds to the PnSt 29

2nd & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.65

Sean Clifford pass incomplete to KeAndre Lambert-Smith

3rd & 6Pass Reception+19 ydsPPA +2.83

Sean Clifford pass complete to Parker Washington for 19 yds to the PnSt 48 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+16 ydsPPA +1.00

Noah Cain run for 16 yds to the Ark 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Fumble Recovery (Own)0 ydsPPA -0.72

TEAM run for no gain to the Ark 36 TEAM fumbled, recovered by PnSt Sean Clifford

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.94

Sean Clifford pass incomplete to Theo Johnson

3rd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.02

Sean Clifford pass incomplete to KeAndre Lambert-Smith

4th & 10Punt0 yds

Jordan Stout punt for 26 yds, fair catch by Nathan Parodi at the Ark 10

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.35

KJ Jefferson pass incomplete to AJ Green

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.15

KJ Jefferson pass incomplete to AJ Green

3rd & 10Sack-4 ydsPPA -0.09

KJ Jefferson sacked by Smith Vilbert for a loss of 4 yards to the Ark 6

4th & 14Punt+18 yds

Reid Bauer punt for 54 yds , Johnny Dixon returns for 18 yds to the Ark 42

1st & 10Passing Touchdown+42 ydsPPA +3.29

Sean Clifford pass complete to KeAndre Lambert-Smith for 42 yds for a TD, (Jake Pinegar KICK)

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.09

Raheim Sanders run for 5 yds to the Ark 30

2nd & 5Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.48

Raheim Sanders run for 2 yds to the Ark 32

3rd & 3Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +1.71

KJ Jefferson pass complete to Blake Kern for 8 yds to the Ark 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.91

De'Vion Warren run for 1 yd to the Ark 41

2nd & 9Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.32

KJ Jefferson pass complete to Trey Knox for 6 yds to the Ark 47

3rd & 3Sack-7 ydsPPA -1.70

KJ Jefferson sacked by Nick Tarburton for a loss of 7 yards to the Ark 40

4th & 10Punt0 yds

Reid Bauer punt for 36 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the PnSt 24

1st & 10Rush+25 ydsPPA +2.22

Keyvone Lee run for 25 yds to the PnSt 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+15 ydsPPA +0.91

Sean Clifford pass complete to Keyvone Lee for 15 yds to the Ark 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty+5 yds

ARKANSAS Penalty, Substitution Infraction (5 Yards) to the Ark 31

1st & 5Pass Reception+17 ydsPPA -0.34

Sean Clifford pass complete to Parker Washington for 17 yds to the Ark 14 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.31

Sean Clifford pass incomplete to Malick Meiga

2nd & 10Pass Reception-1 ydsPPA -0.44

Sean Clifford pass complete to Parker Washington for a loss of 1 yard to the Ark 15

3rd & 11Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.60

Sean Clifford pass incomplete to KeAndre Lambert-Smith

4th & 11Field Goal Good+33 yds

Jake Pinegar 33 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.70

KJ Jefferson run for no gain to the Ark 25

2nd & 10Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.31

KJ Jefferson pass complete to De'Vion Warren for 7 yds to the Ark 32

3rd & 3Rush+4 ydsPPA +1.32

Dominique Johnson run for 4 yds to the Ark 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+2 ydsPPA -0.64

KJ Jefferson pass complete to Tyson Morris for 2 yds to the Ark 38

2nd & 8Sack-9 ydsPPA -1.44

KJ Jefferson sacked by Smith Vilbert for a loss of 9 yards to the Ark 29

3rd & 17Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.09

KJ Jefferson run for 7 yds to the Ark 36

4th & 10Penalty-5 yds

ARKANSAS Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Ark 31

4th & 15Punt+5 yds

Reid Bauer punt for 58 yds , Parker Washington returns for 5 yds to the PnSt 16

1st & 10Rush+19 ydsPPA +1.34

Devyn Ford run for 4 yds to the PnSt 20 for a 1ST down ARKANSAS Penalty, Illegal Contact (15 Yards) to the PnSt 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+32 ydsPPA +2.34

Sean Clifford pass complete to KeAndre Lambert-Smith for 32 yds to the Ark 33 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.64

Sean Clifford pass incomplete to Theo Johnson

2nd & 10Pass Reception0 ydsPPA -0.86

Sean Clifford pass complete to Tyler Warren for no gain to the Ark 33

3rd & 10Penalty-5 yds

PENN ST Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Ark 38

3rd & 15Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.54

Sean Clifford run for 2 yds to the Ark 36

4th & 13Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.00

Jordan Stout pass incomplete

1st & 10Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +1.38

KJ Jefferson pass complete to De'Vion Warren for 9 yds to the Ark 45

2nd & 1Rush+12 ydsPPA +0.41

Raheim Sanders run for 12 yds to the PnSt 43 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.09

KJ Jefferson pass complete to Trey Knox for 5 yds to the PnSt 38

2nd & 5Pass Interception Return0 ydsPPA -3.74

Warren Thompson pass intercepted Ji'Ayir Brown return for no gain to the PnSt 18

1st & 10Rush-3 ydsPPA -0.68

TEAM run for a loss of 3 yards to the PnSt 15

0th & 10End of Half0 yds

End of 2nd Quarter

1st & 10Rush+10 ydsPPA +0.84

KJ Jefferson run for 10 yds to the Ark 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.63

Dominique Johnson run for 2 yds to the Ark 37

2nd & 8Rush+14 ydsPPA +2.11

KJ Jefferson run for 14 yds to the PnSt 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.10

Dominique Johnson run for 5 yds to the PnSt 44

2nd & 5Rush+14 ydsPPA +0.85

KJ Jefferson run for 14 yds to the PnSt 30 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+22 ydsPPA +0.49

Dominique Johnson run for 22 yds to the PnSt 8 for a 1ST down

1st & 8Rushing Touchdown+8 ydsPPA +2.32

KJ Jefferson run for 8 yds for a TD, (Cam Little KICK)

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.30

Sean Clifford run for 3 yds to the PnSt 28

2nd & 7Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.64

Sean Clifford run for a loss of 1 yard to the PnSt 27

3rd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.22

Sean Clifford pass incomplete to Keyvone Lee

4th & 8Punt+8 yds

Jordan Stout punt for 44 yds , Nathan Parodi returns for 8 yds to the Ark 37

1st & 10Rush+19 ydsPPA +1.64

KJ Jefferson run for 19 yds to the PnSt 44 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+17 ydsPPA +0.67

KJ Jefferson pass complete to De'Vion Warren for 17 yds to the PnSt 27 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.04

Trelon Smith run for 4 yds to the PnSt 23

2nd & 6Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.28

Trelon Smith run for 2 yds to the PnSt 21

3rd & 4Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.19

KJ Jefferson run for 3 yds to the PnSt 18

4th & 1Rush+1 ydsPPA +0.68

Dominique Johnson run for 1 yd to the PnSt 17 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-7 ydsPPA -1.01

De'Vion Warren run for a loss of 7 yards to the PnSt 24

2nd & 17Pass Reception-3 ydsPPA -1.38

KJ Jefferson pass complete to Dominique Johnson for a loss of 3 yards to the PnSt 27

3rd & 20Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +0.84

KJ Jefferson pass complete to Tyson Morris for 9 yds to the PnSt 18

4th & 11Field Goal Good+37 yds

Cam Little 37 Yd Field Goal

1st & 10Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.09

Sean Clifford pass complete to Parker Washington for 5 yds to the PnSt 30

2nd & 5Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.63

Sean Clifford run for 1 yd to the PnSt 31

3rd & 4Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +1.47

Sean Clifford pass complete to Noah Cain for 5 yds to the PnSt 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.85

Noah Cain run for 1 yd to the PnSt 37

2nd & 9Pass Reception0 ydsPPA -0.72

Sean Clifford pass complete to KeAndre Lambert-Smith for no gain to the PnSt 37

3rd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.38

Sean Clifford pass incomplete to Cam Sullivan-Brown

4th & 9Punt0 yds

Jordan Stout punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Nathan Parodi at the Ark 21

1st & 10Rush+34 ydsPPA +2.85

KJ Jefferson run for 34 yds to the PnSt 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+12 ydsPPA +0.57

Raheim Sanders run for 12 yds to the PnSt 33 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+32 ydsPPA +1.97

Malik Hornsby run for 32 yds to the PnSt 1 for a 1ST down

1st & 1Rushing Touchdown+1 ydsPPA +0.94

Raheim Sanders run for 1 yd for a TD, (Cam Little KICK)

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.70

Sean Clifford pass incomplete to Malick Meiga

2nd & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.23

Sean Clifford run for 2 yds to the PnSt 27

3rd & 8Rush+14 ydsPPA +2.35

Sean Clifford run for 14 yds to the PnSt 41 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+13 ydsPPA +1.12

Sean Clifford run for 13 yds to the Ark 46 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.03

Sean Clifford pass incomplete to KeAndre Lambert-Smith

2nd & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.31

Parker Washington run for 6 yds to the Ark 40

3rd & 4Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.10

Sean Clifford pass incomplete to Malick Meiga

4th & 4Rush+7 ydsPPA +2.46

Sean Clifford run for 7 yds to the Ark 33 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.64

Sean Clifford pass incomplete to Cam Sullivan-Brown

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.86

Sean Clifford pass incomplete to Cam Sullivan-Brown

3rd & 10Pass Reception+13 ydsPPA +1.78

Sean Clifford pass complete to Parker Washington for 13 yds to the Ark 20 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.07

Sean Clifford run for 5 yds to the Ark 15

2nd & 5Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.03

Keyvone Lee run for 5 yds to the Ark 10 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Interception Return0 ydsPPA -4.49

Sean Clifford pass intercepted, touchback. Joe Foucha return for no gain

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.24

KJ Jefferson run for 3 yds to the Ark 23

2nd & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.44

KJ Jefferson pass incomplete to AJ Green

3rd & 7Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.11

Raheim Sanders run for 6 yds to the Ark 29

4th & 1Penalty+5 yds

Sanders, Raheim rush for 4 yards to the ARKANSAS33, PENALTY PENNST substitution infraction 5 yards to the ARKANSAS34, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN ARKANSAS.

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.11

Raheim Sanders run for 5 yds to the Ark 39

2nd & 5Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.95

Raheim Sanders run for 6 yds to the Ark 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.38

Dominique Johnson run for 6 yds to the PnSt 49

2nd & 4Rush-1 ydsPPA -1.47

KJ Jefferson run for a loss of 1 yard to the 50 yard line KJ Jefferson fumbled, recovered by Ark

3rd & 5Pass Reception0 ydsPPA -0.94

KJ Jefferson pass complete to Bryce Stephens for no gain to the 50 yard line

4th & 5Punt0 yds

Reid Bauer punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Parker Washington at the PnSt 9

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.21

Noah Cain run for 6 yds to the PnSt 15

2nd & 4Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.18

Christian Veilleux pass complete to Parker Washington for 3 yds to the PnSt 18

3rd & 1Rush+13 ydsPPA +1.19

Christian Veilleux run for 13 yds to the PnSt 31 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.37

Noah Cain run for 3 yds to the PnSt 34

2nd & 7Sack-10 ydsPPA -1.31

Christian Veilleux sacked by Joe Foucha for a loss of 10 yards to the PnSt 24

3rd & 17Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.07

Christian Veilleux pass incomplete to Parker Washington

4th & 17Punt0 yds

Jordan Stout punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Nathan Parodi at the Ark 36

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.85

AJ Green run for 1 yd to the Ark 37

2nd & 9Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.13

AJ Green run for 4 yds to the Ark 41

3rd & 5Rush+24 ydsPPA +3.16

Malik Hornsby run for 24 yds to the PnSt 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty-5 yds

ARKANSAS Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the PnSt 40

1st & 15Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.12

AJ Green run for 4 yds to the PnSt 36

2nd & 11Rush+18 ydsPPA +1.25

Malik Hornsby run for 18 yds to the PnSt 18 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-7 ydsPPA -1.05

Malik Hornsby run for a loss of 7 yards to the PnSt 25

2nd & 17Rush+17 ydsPPA +1.33

AJ Green run for 17 yds to the PnSt 8 for a 1ST down

1st & 0Penalty-5 yds

ARKANSAS Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the PnSt 13

1st & 13Rush-3 ydsPPA -0.46

TEAM run for a loss of 3 yards to the PnSt 16

2nd & 0Rush-3 yds

TEAM run for a loss of 3 yards to the PnSt 19

Situational Analysis

Penn State

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
0%
1 play
41%
27 plays
2nd
20%
5 plays
15%
13 plays
3rd
100%
1 play
67%
3 plays
50%
8 plays
0%
3 plays
4th
100%
1 play
0%
1 play

Arkansas

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
100%
2 plays
53%
32 plays
0%
3 plays
2nd
100%
1 play
43%
7 plays
40%
10 plays
60%
5 plays
3rd
67%
3 plays
33%
3 plays
60%
5 plays
100%
3 plays
4th
100%
3 plays