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← Back to GamesDec 31, 2021Week 1

House Prediction

Model Margin

Alabama by 2

Home Win Probability

Alabama 49%

Market (consensus)

Alabama -13

Edge: Cincinnati +13 (11.0 pts)

fitted_v1 · Dec 31, 2021

Line Movement

No line movement to chart

Sportsbook snapshots publish once a line is posted for this game.

Team1Q2Q3Q4QFinal
CincinnatiCincinnati
30306
AlabamaAlabama
71001027

Scoring Timeline

Q1Q2Q3Q4014287-07-310-317-624-627-6
AlabamaCincinnati

Drive Chart

Own 20Own 4050Opp 40Opp 20ALACINALACINALACINALACINALACINCINALACINALACINALACINALACINALATD1175ydFG1360ydFG1367ydPUNT31ydPUNT3-4ydPUNT36ydMISS1265ydTO35ydTD894ydDOWNS64ydFG1156ydPUNT521ydPUNT31ydTO34ydPUNT3-16ydTD970ydDOWNS849ydFG949ydDOWNS737ydEND535yd

Box Score

Team statistics comparing Cincinnati and Alabama
StatisticCincinnatiAlabama
Passing17-3217-28
Pass Yards144181
Rush Yards74301
Total Yards218482
Turnovers01
3rd Down2-125-13
Penalties6-396-36
Possession26:1933:41

Player Leaders

Player Leaders

Cincinnati
passing
Desmond Ridder
17/32, 144 YDS
rushing
Jerome Ford
15 CAR, 77 YDS
receiving
Michael Young
4 REC, 55 YDS
defense
Alabama
passing
Bryce Young
17/28, 181 YDS, 3 TD, 1 INT
rushing
Brian Robinson Jr.
26 CAR, 204 YDS
receiving
Ja'Corey Brooks
4 REC, 66 YDS, 1 TD
defense
Brian Branch
0.5 TFL, 2 PD

Play-by-Play

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.33

Brian Robinson Jr. run for 6 yds to the Alab 31

2nd & 4Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.36

Brian Robinson Jr. run for 3 yds to the Alab 34

3rd & 1Rush+5 ydsPPA +1.25

Brian Robinson Jr. run for 5 yds to the Alab 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.71

Brian Robinson Jr. run for 7 yds to the Alab 46

2nd & 3Rush+1 ydsPPA -1.04

Bryce Young run for 1 yd to the Alab 47

3rd & 2Rush+18 ydsPPA +2.21

Jameson Williams run for 18 yds to the Cincy 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +0.75

Brian Robinson Jr. run for 9 yds to the Cincy 26

2nd & 1Rush+7 ydsPPA -0.38

Brian Robinson Jr. run for 7 yds to the Cincy 19 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty+5 yds

CINCINNATI Penalty, Defensive Offside (Marcus Brown) to the Cincy 14

1st & 5Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.02

Trey Sanders run for 4 yds to the Cincy 10

2nd & 1Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.34

Trey Sanders run for 2 yds to the Cincy 8 for a 1ST down

1st & 8Passing Touchdown+8 ydsPPA +2.32

Bryce Young pass complete to Slade Bolden for 8 yds for a TD, (Will Reichard KICK)

1st & 10Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.33

Desmond Ridder pass complete to Jerome Ford for 6 yds to the Cincy 31

2nd & 4Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.36

Jerome Ford run for 3 yds to the Cincy 34

3rd & 1Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA +1.15

Desmond Ridder pass complete to Michael Young Jr. for 4 yds to the Cincy 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +1.37

Jerome Ford run for 9 yds to the Cincy 47

2nd & 1Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.42

Desmond Ridder pass incomplete to Jadon Thompson

3rd & 1Rush+3 ydsPPA +1.17

Ryan Montgomery run for 3 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+19 ydsPPA +1.00

Desmond Ridder pass complete to Michael Young Jr. for 19 yds to the Alab 31 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.58

Desmond Ridder pass incomplete to Tyler Scott, broken up by Brian Branch

2nd & 10Pass Reception+22 ydsPPA +1.00

Desmond Ridder pass complete to Tyler Scott for 22 yds to the Alab 9 for a 1ST down

1st & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.32

Desmond Ridder pass incomplete to Alec Pierce, broken up by Henry To'oTo'o

2nd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.27

Desmond Ridder pass incomplete to Alec Pierce

3rd & 9Pass Reception-6 ydsPPA -1.27

Desmond Ridder pass complete to Leonard Taylor for a loss of 6 yards to the Alab 15

4th & 15Field Goal Good+33 yds

Cole Smith 33 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.59

Brian Robinson Jr. run for 1 yd to the Alab 26

2nd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.41

Bryce Young pass incomplete

3rd & 9Penalty+5 yds

CINCINNATI Penalty, Defensive Offside (Myjai Sanders) to the Alab 31

3rd & 4Pass Reception+16 ydsPPA +2.52

Bryce Young pass complete to Slade Bolden for 16 yds to the Alab 47 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+16 ydsPPA +1.04

Brian Robinson Jr. run for 16 yds to the Cincy 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.75

Bryce Young pass incomplete to Ja'Corey Brooks

2nd & 10Rush-4 ydsPPA -1.83

Bryce Young run for 1 yd to the Cincy 36 ALABAMA Penalty, Illegal Forward Pass (Bryce Young) to the Cincy 41

3rd & 14Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +1.56

Bryce Young pass complete to Jameson Williams for 12 yds to the Cincy 29

4th & 2Rush+4 ydsPPA +1.37

Brian Robinson Jr. run for 4 yds to the Cincy 25 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+15 ydsPPA +0.19

Brian Robinson Jr. run for 15 yds to the Cincy 10 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.23

Brian Robinson Jr. run for 1 yd to the Cincy 9

2nd & 9Sack-6 ydsPPA -0.80

Bryce Young sacked by Darrian Beavers for a loss of 6 yards to the Cincy 15

3rd & 15Rush+12 ydsPPA +0.63

Bryce Young run for 12 yds to the Cincy 3

4th & 0Penalty-5 yds

ALABAMA Penalty, False Start (Kendall Randolph) to the Cincy 8

4th & 8Field Goal Good+26 yds

Will Reichard 26 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.09

Jerome Ford run for 5 yds to the Cincy 30

2nd & 5Sack-9 ydsPPA -1.29

Desmond Ridder sacked by DJ Dale for a loss of 9 yards to the Cincy 21

3rd & 14Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.01

Desmond Ridder pass complete to Tyler Scott for 5 yds to the Cincy 26

4th & 9Punt+2 yds

Mason Fletcher punt for 43 yds , JoJo Earle returns for 2 yds to the Alab 33

1st & 10Penalty-5 yds

Sanders, Trey rush for 8 yards to the ALABAMA41, PENALTY ALABAMA illegal formation 5 yards to the ALABAMA28, NO PLAY.

1st & 15Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.52

Bryce Young pass incomplete to Trey Sanders

2nd & 15Pass Reception+1 ydsPPA -0.21

Bryce Young pass complete to Trey Sanders for 1 yd to the Alab 29

3rd & 14Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.14

Bryce Young pass incomplete to Jameson Williams ALABAMA Penalty, Offensive Holding (Chris Owens) declined

4th & 14Punt0 yds

James Burnip punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Ryan Montgomery at the Cincy 30

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.72

Jerome Ford run for 1 yd to the Cincy 31

2nd & 9Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.06

Jerome Ford run for 5 yds to the Cincy 36

3rd & 4Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.57

Desmond Ridder pass incomplete to Tre Tucker, broken up by Phidarian Mathis

4th & 4Punt+54 yds

Mason Fletcher punt for 54 yds , Slade Bolden returns for a loss of 1 yard to the Alab 9

1st & 10Pass Reception-1 ydsPPA -0.38

Bryce Young pass complete to Jameson Williams for a loss of 1 yard to the Alab 8

2nd & 11Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +0.81

Bryce Young pass complete to Jahleel Billingsley for 12 yds to the Alab 20 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.29

Brian Robinson Jr. run for 6 yds to the Alab 26

2nd & 4Rush+13 ydsPPA +1.24

Brian Robinson Jr. run for 13 yds to the Alab 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.40

Trey Sanders run for 6 yds to the Alab 45

2nd & 4Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.69

Bryce Young pass complete to Jameson Williams for 6 yds to the Cincy 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +1.07

Brian Robinson Jr. run for 9 yds to the Cincy 40

2nd & 1Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA -0.12

Bryce Young pass complete to Ja'Corey Brooks for 10 yds to the Cincy 30 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.56

Bryce Young pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.09

Bryce Young pass complete to Jameson Williams for 4 yds to the Cincy 26

3rd & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.82

Bryce Young pass incomplete to Jahleel Billingsley

4th & 6Field Goal Missed+44 yds

Will Reichard 44 yd FG MISSED

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.73

Desmond Ridder pass incomplete to Tyler Scott, broken up by Khyree Jackson

2nd & 10Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.05

Desmond Ridder pass complete to Alec Pierce for 5 yds to the Cincy 31

3rd & 5Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.39

Desmond Ridder pass incomplete to Michael Young Jr.

4th & 5Punt-9 yds

Mason Fletcher punt for 48 yds , JoJo Earle returns for a loss of 9 yards to the Alab 12 JoJo Earle fumbled, recovered by Alab Jameson Williams ALABAMA Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Jaylen Moody) to the Alab 6

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.19

Brian Robinson Jr. run for 6 yds to the Alab 12

2nd & 4Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.40

Bryce Young pass incomplete to Ja'Corey Brooks

3rd & 4Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA +0.53

Bryce Young pass complete to Jameson Williams for 4 yds to the Alab 16 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.20

Brian Robinson Jr. run for 3 yds to the Alab 19

2nd & 7Rush+23 ydsPPA +2.21

Brian Robinson Jr. run for 23 yds to the Alab 42 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+14 ydsPPA +1.15

Bryce Young pass complete to Ja'Corey Brooks for 14 yds to the Cincy 44 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.97

Bryce Young pass incomplete to JoJo Earle

2nd & 10Passing Touchdown+44 ydsPPA +4.38

Bryce Young pass complete to Ja'Corey Brooks for 44 yds for a TD, (Will Reichard KICK)

2nd & 10Kickoff Return (Offense)+40 yds

Will Reichard kickoff for 65 yds , Tyler Scott return for 40 yds to the Cincy 40

1st & 10Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.17

Desmond Ridder pass complete to Michael Young Jr. for 4 yds to the Cincy 44

2nd & 6Rush+9 ydsPPA +1.31

Desmond Ridder run for 9 yds to the Alab 47 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.05

Desmond Ridder pass incomplete to Alec Pierce

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.06

Desmond Ridder pass incomplete to Leonard Taylor

3rd & 10Sack-4 ydsPPA -1.21

Desmond Ridder sacked by Dallas Turner for a loss of 4 yards to the Cincy 49

4th & 14Sack-5 ydsPPA -0.07

Desmond Ridder sacked by Will Anderson Jr. for a loss of 5 yards to the Cincy 44

0th & 14End of Half0 yds

End of 2nd Quarter

1st & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +1.25

Desmond Ridder run for 9 yds to the Cincy 34

2nd & 1Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.32

Jerome Ford run for 2 yds to the Cincy 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +1.38

Desmond Ridder pass complete to Tyler Scott for 9 yds to the Cincy 45

2nd & 1Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.08

Desmond Ridder pass complete to Tyler Scott for 7 yds to the Alab 48 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +0.68

Desmond Ridder pass complete to Alec Pierce for 12 yds to the Alab 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +0.77

Jerome Ford run for 9 yds to the Alab 27

2nd & 1Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.44

Desmond Ridder run for 3 yds to the Alab 24 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.08

Desmond Ridder pass complete to Jerome Ford for 5 yds to the Alab 19

2nd & 5Rush0 ydsPPA -0.46

Jerome Ford run for no gain to the Alab 19

3rd & 5Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.58

Desmond Ridder pass incomplete to Michael Young Jr.

4th & 5Field Goal Good+37 yds

Cole Smith 37 yd FG GOOD

4th & 5Kickoff Return (Offense)+15 yds

Alex Bales kickoff for 65 yds , Jameson Williams return for 15 yds to the Alab 15

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.29

Brian Robinson Jr. run for 2 yds to the Alab 17

2nd & 8Rush+17 ydsPPA +1.57

Brian Robinson Jr. run for 17 yds to the Alab 34 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.40

Brian Robinson Jr. run for 3 yds to the Alab 37

2nd & 7Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.69

Trey Sanders run for 1 yd to the Alab 38

3rd & 6Sack-2 ydsPPA -0.65

Bryce Young sacked by Wilson Huber for a loss of 2 yards to the Alab 36

4th & 8Punt+12 yds

James Burnip punt for 47 yds , Ryan Montgomery returns for 12 yds to the Cincy 29

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.83

Desmond Ridder pass incomplete to Tyler Scott

2nd & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.20

Jerome Ford run for 6 yds to the Cincy 35

3rd & 4Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.54

Desmond Ridder pass incomplete to Tre Tucker, broken up by Brian Branch

4th & 4Penalty-5 yds

CINCINNATI Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the Cincy 30

4th & 9Punt0 yds

Mason Fletcher punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Slade Bolden at the Alab 26

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.34

Bryce Young run for 6 yds to the Alab 32

2nd & 4Pass Reception-2 ydsPPA -1.14

Bryce Young pass complete to Ja'Corey Brooks for a loss of 2 yards to the Alab 30

3rd & 6Pass Interception Return0 ydsPPA -0.19

Bryce Young pass intercepted Bryan Cook return for no gain to the Cincy 49

1st & 10Penalty-5 yds

Ford, Jerome rush for 1 yard to the 50 yardline, PENALTY CINCINNATI illegal shift 5 yards to the CINCINNATI44, NO PLAY.

1st & 15Rush-1 ydsPPA -1.15

Jerome Ford run for a loss of 1 yard to the Cincy 43

2nd & 16Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.58

Desmond Ridder pass incomplete to Leonard Taylor, broken up by Phidarian Mathis

3rd & 16Sack-10 ydsPPA -0.51

Desmond Ridder sacked by Will Anderson Jr. and Christian Harris for a loss of 10 yards to the Cincy 33

4th & 26Punt0 yds

Mason Fletcher punt for 37 yds , Slade Bolden returns for no gain to the Alab 30

1st & 10Rush-3 ydsPPA -1.19

Brian Robinson Jr. run for a loss of 3 yards to the Alab 27

2nd & 13Penalty-10 yds

Young, Bryce pass complete to Bolden, Slade for 3 yards to the ALABAMA30, PENALTY ALABAMA holding (Owens, Chris) 10 yards to the ALABAMA17, NO PLAY.

2nd & 23Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.05

Bryce Young pass complete to Slade Bolden for 7 yds to the Alab 24

3rd & 16Pass Reception+20 ydsPPA +2.90

Bryce Young pass complete to Jameson Williams for 20 yds to the Alab 44 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.93

Trey Sanders run for 1 yd to the Alab 45

2nd & 9Rush+11 ydsPPA +1.89

Brian Robinson Jr. run for 11 yds to the Cincy 44 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.97

Bryce Young pass incomplete to Ja'Corey Brooks

2nd & 10Pass Reception+31 ydsPPA +1.84

Bryce Young pass complete to Jameson Williams for 17 yds to the Cincy 27 for a 1ST down CINCINNATI Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Deshawn Pace) to the Cincy 13 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +0.61

Brian Robinson Jr. run for 9 yds to the Cincy 4

2nd & 1Penalty-5 yds

ALABAMA Penalty, False Start (Chris Owens) to the Cincy 9

2nd & 6Passing Touchdown+9 ydsPPA +2.56

Bryce Young pass complete to Cameron Latu for 9 yds for a TD, (Will Reichard KICK)

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.33

Jerome Ford run for 6 yds to the Cincy 31

2nd & 4Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.69

Jerome Ford run for 6 yds to the Cincy 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.40

Jerome Ford run for 6 yds to the Cincy 43

2nd & 4Pass Reception+28 ydsPPA +1.86

Desmond Ridder pass complete to Michael Young Jr. for 28 yds to the Alab 29 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.21

Jerome Ford run for 6 yds to the Alab 23

2nd & 4Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.56

Desmond Ridder pass incomplete to Tre Tucker

3rd & 4Pass Reception+1 ydsPPA -0.52

Desmond Ridder pass complete to Tre Tucker for 1 yd to the Alab 22

4th & 3Sack-4 ydsPPA -3.34

Desmond Ridder sacked by Brian Branch and Will Anderson Jr. for a loss of 4 yards to the Alab 26

1st & 10Rush+19 ydsPPA +1.73

Brian Robinson Jr. run for 19 yds to the Alab 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.94

Brian Robinson Jr. run for 8 yds to the Cincy 47

2nd & 2Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.02

Brian Robinson Jr. run for 4 yds to the Cincy 43 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.69

Trey Sanders run for 8 yds to the Cincy 35

2nd & 2Rush+8 ydsPPA -0.08

Trey Sanders run for 8 yds to the Cincy 27 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.49

Trey Sanders run for no gain to the Cincy 27

2nd & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.35

Trey Sanders run for 2 yds to the Cincy 25

3rd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.83

Bryce Young pass incomplete to Javon Baker

4th & 8Field Goal Good+43 yds

Will Reichard 43 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +0.93

Desmond Ridder pass complete to Tre Tucker for 11 yds to the Cincy 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty-5 yds

CINCINNATI Penalty, False Start (Jake Renfro) to the Cincy 31

1st & 15Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +1.81

Desmond Ridder pass complete to Josh Whyle for 12 yds to the Cincy 43

2nd & 3Rush+14 ydsPPA +1.08

Jerome Ford run for 14 yds to the Alab 43 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Sack-6 ydsPPA -2.27

Desmond Ridder sacked by TEAM for a loss of 6 yards to the Alab 49

2nd & 16Pass Reception0 ydsPPA -0.83

Desmond Ridder pass complete to Jerome Ford for no gain to the Alab 49

3rd & 16Rush+11 ydsPPA +1.15

Desmond Ridder run for 11 yds to the Alab 38

4th & 5Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.70

Desmond Ridder pass incomplete to Leonard Taylor

1st & 10Rush+12 ydsPPA +1.11

Trey Sanders run for 12 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+18 ydsPPA +0.97

Trey Sanders run for 18 yds to the Cincy 32 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.22

Trey Sanders run for 6 yds to the Cincy 26

2nd & 4Rush0 ydsPPA -0.62

Trey Sanders run for no gain to the Cincy 26

3rd & 4Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.98

Trey Sanders run for a loss of 1 yard to the Cincy 27

Situational Analysis

Cincinnati

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
62%
21 plays
50%
2 plays
2nd
40%
5 plays
43%
7 plays
67%
6 plays
0%
2 plays
3rd
100%
2 plays
0%
5 plays
0%
2 plays
67%
3 plays
4th
0%
1 play
0%
1 play
0%
1 play

Alabama

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
0%
1 play
59%
32 plays
0%
1 play
2nd
0%
6 plays
43%
7 plays
45%
11 plays
67%
3 plays
3rd
100%
2 plays
33%
6 plays
0%
1 play
75%
4 plays
4th
100%
1 play