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← Back to GamesDec 28, 2021Week 1

House Prediction

Model Margin

Mississippi State by 9

Home Win Probability

Texas Tech 26%

Market (consensus)

Texas Tech +10

Edge: Texas Tech +10 (1.0 pts)

fitted_v1 · Dec 28, 2021

Line Movement

No line movement to chart

Sportsbook snapshots publish once a line is posted for this game.

Team1Q2Q3Q4QFinal
Mississippi StateMississippi State
07007
Texas TechTexas Tech
10314734

Scoring Timeline

Q1Q2Q3Q401428427-010-010-713-720-727-734-7
Texas TechMississippi State

Drive Chart

Own 20Own 4050Opp 40Opp 20TTMSTTMSTTMSTTMSTTTTMSMSTTMSTTMSTTMSTTMSTTMSTD775ydPUNT827ydFG1479ydTD1075ydPUNT3-4ydDOWNS34ydDOWNS1252ydPUNT3-1ydTO724ydFG46ydEND218ydPUNT520ydPUNT32ydPUNT621ydTD495ydDOWNS936ydTD960ydTO926ydTD885ydTO539ydPUNT33ydEND1369yd

Box Score

Team statistics comparing Mississippi State and Texas Tech
StatisticMississippi StateTexas Tech
Passing32-5315-28
Pass Yards290252
Rush Yards54260
Total Yards344512
Turnovers30
3rd Down8-176-13
Penalties4-356-50
Possession28:4131:19

Player Leaders

Player Leaders

Mississippi State
passing
Will Rogers
32/53, 290 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
rushing
Dillon Johnson
9 CAR, 62 YDS
receiving
Austin Williams
5 REC, 74 YDS
defense
Texas Tech
passing
Donovan Smith
15/28, 252 YDS, 1 TD
rushing
Tahj Brooks
16 CAR, 107 YDS, 1 TD
receiving
Myles Price
3 REC, 72 YDS
defense

Play-by-Play

1st & 10Penalty-5 yds

TEXAS TECH Penalty, Illegal Formation (Chadarius Townsend) to the TexTc 20

1st & 15Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.15

SaRodorick Thompson run for 6 yds to the TexTc 26

2nd & 9Rush+33 ydsPPA +3.42

SaRodorick Thompson run for 33 yds to the MisSt 41 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.10

SaRodorick Thompson run for 4 yds to the MisSt 37

2nd & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.93

Donovan Smith pass incomplete

3rd & 6Rush+8 ydsPPA +1.48

Tahj Brooks run for 8 yds to the MisSt 29 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+10 ydsPPA +0.18

Tahj Brooks run for 10 yds to the MisSt 19 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rushing Touchdown+19 ydsPPA +2.60

Tahj Brooks run for 19 yds for a TD, (Jonathan Garibay KICK)

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.70

Will Rogers pass incomplete to Makai Polk

2nd & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +0.68

Dillon Johnson run for 9 yds to the MisSt 34

3rd & 1Rush+4 ydsPPA +1.15

Dillon Johnson run for 4 yds to the MisSt 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.71

Dillon Johnson run for 7 yds to the MisSt 45

2nd & 3Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +0.83

Will Rogers pass complete to Austin Williams for 11 yds to the TexTc 44 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-4 ydsPPA -1.87

Dillon Johnson run for a loss of 4 yards to the TexTc 48

2nd & 14Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.93

Will Rogers pass incomplete to Lideatrick Griffin

3rd & 14Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.60

Will Rogers pass incomplete to Lideatrick Griffin

4th & 14Punt0 yds

Archer Trafford punt for 40 yds, downed at the TexTc 8

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.27

SaRodorick Thompson run for 1 yd to the TexTc 9

2nd & 9Rush+11 ydsPPA +0.73

Donovan Smith run for 11 yds to the TexTc 20 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+11 ydsPPA +0.78

SaRodorick Thompson run for 11 yds to the TexTc 31 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.57

SaRodorick Thompson run for 2 yds to the TexTc 33

2nd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.65

Donovan Smith pass incomplete to Kaylon Geiger

3rd & 8Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +2.54

Donovan Smith pass complete to Myles Price for 12 yds to the TexTc 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+11 ydsPPA +0.86

Tahj Brooks run for 11 yds to the MisSt 44 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+12 ydsPPA +0.54

Tahj Brooks run for 12 yds to the MisSt 32 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +0.25

Donovan Smith pass complete to Myles Price for 12 yds to the MisSt 20 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.19

Tahj Brooks run for 6 yds to the MisSt 14

2nd & 4Rush-8 ydsPPA -1.30

SaRodorick Thompson run for 2 yds to the MisSt 12 TEXAS TECH Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the MisSt 22

2nd & 12Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.22

Donovan Smith run for 7 yds to the MisSt 15

3rd & 5Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.25

Xavier White run for 2 yds to the MisSt 13

4th & 3Field Goal Good+31 yds

Jonathan Garibay 31 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +0.84

Will Rogers pass complete to Lideatrick Griffin for 10 yds to the MisSt 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+18 ydsPPA +1.63

Will Rogers pass complete to Makai Polk for 18 yds to the TexTc 47 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +1.01

Will Rogers pass complete to Caleb Ducking for 9 yds to the TexTc 38

2nd & 1Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.45

Jo'quavious Marks run for 1 yd to the TexTc 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception-1 ydsPPA -0.94

Will Rogers pass complete to Jaden Walley for a loss of 1 yard to the TexTc 38

2nd & 11Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.00

Will Rogers pass incomplete to Rara Thomas

3rd & 11Pass Reception+18 ydsPPA +2.37

Will Rogers pass complete to Jo'quavious Marks for 18 yds to the TexTc 20 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.37

Will Rogers pass incomplete to Dillon Johnson

2nd & 10Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.14

Will Rogers pass complete to Makai Polk for 3 yds to the TexTc 17

3rd & 7Passing Touchdown+17 ydsPPA +3.14

Will Rogers pass complete to Rara Thomas for 17 yds for a TD, (Nolan McCord KICK)

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.11

Kaylon Geiger run for 4 yds to the TexTc 29

2nd & 6Rush-2 ydsPPA -0.82

Tahj Brooks run for a loss of 2 yards to the TexTc 27

3rd & 8Sack-6 ydsPPA -0.34

Donovan Smith sacked by Nathaniel Watson for a loss of 6 yards to the TexTc 21

4th & 14Punt+8 yds

Austin McNamara punt for 61 yds , Jaden Walley returns for 8 yds to the MisSt 26

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.73

Will Rogers run for no gain to the MisSt 26

2nd & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.50

Dillon Johnson run for 8 yds to the MisSt 34

3rd & 2Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.53

Dillon Johnson run for 1 yd to the MisSt 35

4th & 1Penalty-5 yds

MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, False Start (LaQuinston Sharp) to the MisSt 30

4th & 6Punt0 yds

Archer Trafford punt for 53 yds, downed at the TexTc 17

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.41

SaRodorick Thompson run for 1 yd to the TexTc 18

2nd & 9Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +1.25

Donovan Smith pass complete to Jerand Bradley for 12 yds to the TexTc 30 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.36

Xavier White run for 3 yds to the TexTc 33

2nd & 7Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.32

Donovan Smith pass complete to Kaylon Geiger for 6 yds to the TexTc 39

3rd & 1Rush+4 ydsPPA +1.27

Tahj Brooks run for 4 yds to the TexTc 43 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.16

Donovan Smith pass incomplete to Myles Price

2nd & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.85

Tahj Brooks run for no gain to the TexTc 43

3rd & 10Pass Reception+18 ydsPPA +3.33

Donovan Smith pass complete to Trey Cleveland for 18 yds to the MisSt 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.81

Donovan Smith pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.26

SaRodorick Thompson run for 6 yds to the MisSt 33

3rd & 4Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.99

Donovan Smith pass incomplete to Trey Cleveland

4th & 4Pass Reception+2 ydsPPA -2.32

Donovan Smith pass complete to Kaylon Geiger for 2 yds to the MisSt 31

1st & 10Sack-1 ydsPPA -1.03

Will Rogers sacked by Colin Schooler for a loss of 1 yard to the MisSt 30

2nd & 11Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.42

Will Rogers pass incomplete to Jaden Walley

3rd & 11Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.20

Will Rogers pass incomplete to Austin Williams

4th & 11Punt+5 yds

Archer Trafford punt for 39 yds , Adrian Frye returns for 5 yds to the TexTc 36

1st & 10Rush+13 ydsPPA +1.22

Myles Price run for 13 yds to the TexTc 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.60

Tahj Brooks run for 7 yds to the MisSt 44

2nd & 3Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.65

SaRodorick Thompson run for 2 yds to the MisSt 42

3rd & 1Rush+9 ydsPPA +1.06

Tahj Brooks run for 9 yds to the MisSt 33 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty-5 yds

TEXAS TECH Penalty, False Start (Travis Koontz) to the MisSt 38

1st & 15Pass Reception-2 ydsPPA -1.28

Donovan Smith pass complete to Kaylon Geiger for a loss of 2 yards to the MisSt 40

2nd & 17Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.99

Donovan Smith pass incomplete

3rd & 17Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.74

Donovan Smith pass incomplete to Myles Price

4th & 17Punt+1 yds

Austin McNamara punt for 27 yds , Austin Williams returns for 1 yd to the MisSt 14 Austin Williams fumbled, recovered by TexTc Tyrique Matthews

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.31

Donovan Smith pass incomplete to Myles Price

2nd & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.11

Tahj Brooks run for 6 yds to the MisSt 8

3rd & 4Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.34

Donovan Smith pass incomplete to Mason Tharp

4th & 4Field Goal Good+26 yds

Jonathan Garibay 26 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +0.84

Will Rogers pass complete to Jaden Walley for 10 yds to the MisSt 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +1.04

Will Rogers pass complete to Lideatrick Griffin for 8 yds to the MisSt 43

0th & 10End of Half0 yds

End of 2nd Quarter

1st & 10Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.24

Will Rogers pass complete to Makai Polk for 3 yds to the MisSt 23

2nd & 7Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +1.10

Will Rogers pass complete to Jaden Walley for 9 yds to the MisSt 32 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +1.02

Will Rogers pass complete to Makai Polk for 8 yds to the MisSt 40

2nd & 2Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.31

Will Rogers pass incomplete to Jaden Walley

3rd & 2Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.82

Will Rogers pass incomplete to Dillon Johnson

4th & 2Punt-2 yds

Archer Trafford punt for 43 yds , Adrian Frye returns for a loss of 2 yards to the TexTc 15

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.29

Tahj Brooks run for 2 yds to the TexTc 17

2nd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.28

Donovan Smith pass incomplete to Myles Price

3rd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.12

Donovan Smith pass incomplete to Myles Price

4th & 8Punt0 yds

Austin McNamara punt for 36 yds , Jaden Walley returns for no gain to the MisSt 17 MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, Offensive Holding (10 Yards) to the MisSt 37

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.07

Will Rogers pass incomplete to Jaden Walley

2nd & 10Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +2.11

Will Rogers pass complete to Makai Polk for 11 yds to the MisSt 48 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty-5 yds

MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, False Start (Nick Jones) to the MisSt 43

1st & 15Pass Reception+15 ydsPPA +1.92

Will Rogers pass complete to Rara Thomas for 15 yds to the TexTc 42 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.91

Will Rogers pass incomplete to Jo'quavious Marks

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.05

Will Rogers pass incomplete to Jaden Walley

3rd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.93

Will Rogers pass incomplete to Makai Polk

4th & 10Punt0 yds

Archer Trafford punt for 37 yds, downed at the TexTc 5

1st & 10Pass Reception+39 ydsPPA +2.55

Donovan Smith pass complete to Travis Koontz for 39 yds to the TexTc 44 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.43

SaRodorick Thompson run for 3 yds to the TexTc 47

2nd & 7Pass Reception+52 ydsPPA +3.86

Donovan Smith pass complete to Jerand Bradley for 52 yds to the MisSt 1 for a 1ST down

1st & 1Rushing Touchdown+1 ydsPPA +0.94

Donovan Smith run for 1 yd for a TD, (Jonathan Garibay KICK)

1st & 10Pass Reception+17 ydsPPA +1.49

Will Rogers pass complete to Dillon Johnson for 17 yds to the MisSt 41 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+1 ydsPPA -0.92

Will Rogers pass complete to Jamire Calvin for 1 yd to the MisSt 42

2nd & 9Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.36

Will Rogers pass complete to Dillon Johnson for 3 yds to the MisSt 45

3rd & 6Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +2.46

Will Rogers pass complete to Austin Williams for 10 yds to the TexTc 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.09

Will Rogers pass complete to Makai Polk for 5 yds to the TexTc 40

2nd & 5Penalty+15 yds

Rogers, Will pass incomplete to Thomas, Rara, PENALTY TEXASTECH pass interference (Fields, DaMarcus) 15 yards to the TEXASTECH25, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN MISSSTATE.

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.08

Dillon Johnson run for 5 yds to the TexTc 20

2nd & 5Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.48

Will Rogers pass incomplete to Rara Thomas

3rd & 5Sack-11 ydsPPA -2.78

Will Rogers sacked by Tyree Wilson for a loss of 11 yards to the TexTc 31

4th & 16Sack-9 ydsPPA -1.12

Will Rogers sacked by Tyree Wilson for a loss of 9 yards to the TexTc 40

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.70

Kaylon Geiger run for 7 yds to the TexTc 47

2nd & 3Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA +0.21

Donovan Smith pass complete to Kaylon Geiger for 3 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+15 ydsPPA +0.87

Donovan Smith pass complete to J.J. Sparkman for 15 yds to the MisSt 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.22

Tahj Brooks run for 3 yds to the MisSt 32

2nd & 7Rush+17 ydsPPA +0.63

Donovan Smith run for 17 yds to the MisSt 15 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty-5 yds

TEXAS TECH Penalty, False Start (Weston Wright) to the MisSt 20

1st & 15Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.18

Kaylon Geiger run for 7 yds to the MisSt 13

2nd & 8Rush-8 ydsPPA -1.28

Myles Price run for 2 yds to the MisSt 11 TEXAS TECH Penalty, Offensive Holding (Mason Tharp) to the MisSt 21

2nd & 16Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.22

Tahj Brooks run for 7 yds to the MisSt 14

3rd & 9Passing Touchdown+14 ydsPPA +3.15

Donovan Smith pass complete to J.J. Sparkman for 14 yds for a TD, (Jonathan Garibay KICK)

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.36

Jo'quavious Marks run for 6 yds to the MisSt 34

2nd & 4Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.97

Will Rogers pass incomplete to Jo'quavious Marks

3rd & 4Pass Reception-1 ydsPPA -0.58

Will Rogers pass complete to Austin Williams for 14 yds to the MisSt 48 MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, Personal Foul (Nick Jones) to the MisSt 33

1st & 10Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.11

Will Rogers pass complete to Jo'quavious Marks for 5 yds to the MisSt 38

2nd & 5Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.01

Will Rogers pass incomplete

3rd & 5Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +2.23

Will Rogers pass complete to Makai Polk for 9 yds to the MisSt 47 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.15

Will Rogers pass incomplete to Rufus Harvey

2nd & 10Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.58

Will Rogers pass complete to Jo'quavious Marks for 7 yds to the TexTc 46

3rd & 3Pass Interception Return0 ydsPPA -2.33

Will Rogers pass intercepted Eric Monroe return for no gain to the TexTc 15

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.08

Tahj Brooks run for 5 yds to the TexTc 20

2nd & 5Pass Reception+48 ydsPPA +3.67

Donovan Smith pass complete to Myles Price for 48 yds to the MisSt 32 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.61

Donovan Smith pass incomplete to Kaylon Geiger

2nd & 10Pass Reception+19 ydsPPA +0.94

Donovan Smith pass complete to Xavier White for 19 yds to the MisSt 13 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.02

Xavier White run for 4 yds to the MisSt 9

2nd & 6Rush+7 ydsPPA +1.34

SaRodorick Thompson run for 7 yds to the MisSt 2 for a 1ST down

1st & 2Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.69

SaRodorick Thompson run for 1 yd to the MisSt 1

2nd & 1Rushing Touchdown+1 ydsPPA +1.90

SaRodorick Thompson run for 1 yd for a TD, (Jonathan Garibay KICK)

1st & 10Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +0.93

Will Rogers pass complete to Austin Williams for 11 yds to the MisSt 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+30 ydsPPA +2.21

Dillon Johnson run for 30 yds to the TexTc 34 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.35

Dillon Johnson run for 2 yds to the TexTc 32

2nd & 8Sack-10 ydsPPA -2.83

Will Rogers sacked by Tony Bradford Jr. for a loss of 10 yards to the TexTc 42

3rd & 18Fumble Recovery (Opponent)+6 ydsPPA -0.88

Will Rogers pass complete to Dillon Johnson for 6 yds Dillon Johnson fumbled, recovered by TexTc DaMarcus Fields

1st & 10Pass Reception+2 ydsPPA -0.64

Donovan Smith pass complete to Travis Koontz for 2 yds to the TexTc 38

2nd & 8Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.67

Xavier White run for 1 yd to the TexTc 39

3rd & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.50

Donovan Smith pass incomplete to Dalton Rigdon

4th & 7Punt0 yds

Austin McNamara punt for 60 yds, downed at the MisSt 1

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.20

Jo'quavious Marks run for 1 yd to the MisSt 2

2nd & 9Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.23

Will Rogers pass complete to Jo'quavious Marks for 8 yds to the MisSt 10

3rd & 1Rush+9 ydsPPA +0.52

Jo'quavious Marks run for 9 yds to the MisSt 19 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.53

Will Rogers pass incomplete to Jo'quavious Marks

2nd & 10Pass Reception+28 ydsPPA +2.88

Will Rogers pass complete to Austin Williams for 28 yds to the MisSt 47 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.15

Will Rogers pass incomplete to Jo'quavious Marks

2nd & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.59

Jo'quavious Marks run for 2 yds to the MisSt 49

3rd & 8Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.14

Will Rogers run for 4 yds to the TexTc 47

4th & 4Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA +2.63

Will Rogers pass complete to Jamire Calvin for 4 yds to the TexTc 43 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception-1 ydsPPA -1.16

Will Rogers pass complete to Jamire Calvin for a loss of 1 yard to the TexTc 44

2nd & 11Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.29

Will Rogers pass complete to Jamire Calvin for 6 yds to the TexTc 38

3rd & 5Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +1.41

Will Rogers pass complete to Caleb Ducking for 8 yds to the TexTc 30 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.56

Will Rogers pass incomplete to Jo'quavious Marks

Situational Analysis

Mississippi State

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
45%
31 plays
100%
1 play
2nd
33%
3 plays
0%
3 plays
58%
12 plays
25%
4 plays
3rd
40%
5 plays
60%
5 plays
33%
3 plays
25%
4 plays
4th
100%
1 play
0%
1 play

Texas Tech

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
50%
2 plays
46%
28 plays
67%
3 plays
2nd
67%
3 plays
40%
5 plays
64%
14 plays
67%
3 plays
3rd
100%
2 plays
25%
4 plays
50%
6 plays
0%
1 play
4th
0%
1 play