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← Back to GamesDec 4, 2021Week 14
Conference Game

House Prediction

Model Margin

Cincinnati by 17.2

Home Win Probability

Cincinnati 87%

Market (consensus)

Cincinnati -10.5

Edge: Cincinnati -10.5 (6.7 pts)

fitted_v1 · Dec 4, 2021

Line Movement

No line movement to chart

Sportsbook snapshots publish once a line is posted for this game.

Team1Q2Q3Q4QFinal
HoustonHouston
1030720
CincinnatiCincinnati
14021035

Scoring Timeline

Q1Q2Q3Q401428420-37-1014-1321-1335-1335-20
CincinnatiHouston

Drive Chart

Own 20Own 4050Opp 40Opp 20HOUCINHOUCINHOUCINHOUCINHOUCINHOUCINHOUCINHOUCINHOUCINHOUCINHOUCINHOUCINHOUFG750ydTD582ydTD1074ydTD179ydFG1344ydMISS735ydPUNT535ydPUNT3-13ydPUNT69ydPUNT39ydEND1-1ydTD675ydTO10ydTD223ydPUNT3-8ydTD362ydPUNT43ydDOWNS521ydPUNT3-6ydPUNT525ydTD1390ydPUNT31ydDOWNS734ydPUNT32ydEND212yd

Box Score

Team statistics comparing Houston and Cincinnati
StatisticHoustonCincinnati
Passing17-2611-17
Pass Yards250190
Rush Yards86210
Total Yards336400
Turnovers10
3rd Down5-150-8
Penalties7-586-40
Possession40:1919:41

Player Leaders

Player Leaders

Houston
passing
Clayton Tune
17/26, 250 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
rushing
Alton McCaskill
13 CAR, 39 YDS
receiving
Nathaniel Dell
9 REC, 152 YDS, 1 TD
defense
Cincinnati
passing
Desmond Ridder
11/17, 190 YDS, 3 TD
rushing
Jerome Ford
18 CAR, 187 YDS, 2 TD
receiving
Alec Pierce
2 REC, 65 YDS, 1 TD
defense

Play-by-Play

1st & 10Kickoff Return (Offense)+28 yds

Alex Bales kickoff for 63 yds , Marcus Jones return for 28 yds to the Houst 30

1st & 10Pass Reception+15 ydsPPA +1.42

Clayton Tune pass complete to Jake Herslow for 15 yds to the Houst 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+18 ydsPPA +1.23

Alton McCaskill run for 18 yds to the Cincy 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+22 ydsPPA +0.49

Clayton Tune pass complete to Nathaniel Dell for 22 yds to the Cincy 15 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.25

Alton McCaskill run for 1 yd to the Cincy 14

2nd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.34

Clayton Tune pass incomplete to Nathaniel Dell

3rd & 9Sack-6 ydsPPA -1.58

Clayton Tune sacked by Curtis Brooks and Jabari Taylor for a loss of 6 yards to the Cincy 20

4th & 15Field Goal Good+37 yds

Dalton Witherspoon 37 yd FG GOOD

4th & 15Kickoff Return (Offense)+17 yds

Bubba Baxa kickoff for 64 yds , Tre Tucker return for 17 yds to the Cincy 18

1st & 10Pass Reception+17 ydsPPA +1.25

Desmond Ridder pass complete to Jerome Ford for 17 yds to the Cincy 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.40

Jerome Ford run for 6 yds to the Cincy 41

2nd & 4Pass Reception+17 ydsPPA +1.55

Desmond Ridder pass complete to Tre Tucker for 17 yds to the Houst 42 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+17 ydsPPA +0.59

Desmond Ridder pass complete to Josh Whyle for 17 yds to the Houst 25 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Passing Touchdown+25 ydsPPA +2.70

Desmond Ridder pass complete to Tyler Scott for 25 yds for a TD, (Christian Lowery KICK)

1st & 10Kickoff Return (Offense)+22 yds

Alex Bales kickoff for 61 yds , Marcus Jones return for 22 yds to the Houst 26

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.73

Clayton Tune pass incomplete to Nathaniel Dell

2nd & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.16

Ta'Zhawn Henry run for 3 yds to the Houst 29

3rd & 7Rush+9 ydsPPA +1.95

Clayton Tune run for 9 yds to the Houst 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.67

Alton McCaskill run for 2 yds to the Houst 40

2nd & 8Rush-2 ydsPPA -1.12

Alton McCaskill run for a loss of 2 yards to the Houst 38

3rd & 10Pass Reception+14 ydsPPA +3.05

Clayton Tune pass complete to Jake Herslow for 14 yds to the Cincy 48 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -1.07

Clayton Tune run for no gain to the Cincy 48

2nd & 10Pass Reception+14 ydsPPA +1.82

Clayton Tune pass complete to Jake Herslow for 14 yds to the Cincy 34 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+13 ydsPPA +0.30

Clayton Tune pass complete to Nathaniel Dell for 13 yds to the Cincy 21 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty+5 yds

CINCINNATI Penalty, Defensive Offside (Marcus Brown) to the Cincy 16

1st & 5Passing Touchdown+16 ydsPPA +1.98

Clayton Tune pass complete to Nathaniel Dell for 16 yds for a TD, (Dalton Witherspoon KICK)

1st & 5Kickoff Return (Offense)+21 yds

Bubba Baxa kickoff for 65 yds , Tre Tucker return for 21 yds to the Cincy 21

1st & 10Rushing Touchdown+79 ydsPPA +6.33

Jerome Ford run for 79 yds for a TD, (Christian Lowery KICK)

1st & 0Penalty+2 yds

HOUSTON Penalty, Defensive Offside (2 Yards) to the Houst 1

1st & 8Kickoff Return (Offense)+18 yds

Alex Bales kickoff for 56 yds , Marcus Jones return for 18 yds to the Houst 27

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.12

Ta'Zhawn Henry run for 4 yds to the Houst 31

2nd & 6Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +1.20

Clayton Tune pass complete to Jeremy Singleton for 8 yds to the Houst 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.17

Clayton Tune run for 4 yds to the Houst 43

2nd & 6Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +1.18

Clayton Tune pass complete to Nathaniel Dell for 7 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+11 ydsPPA +0.70

Alton McCaskill run for 11 yds to the Cincy 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Sack-8 ydsPPA -2.52

Clayton Tune sacked by Joel Dublanko for a loss of 8 yards to the Cincy 47

2nd & 18Rush+10 ydsPPA +1.14

Clayton Tune run for 10 yds to the Cincy 37

3rd & 8Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.06

Clayton Tune run for 5 yds to the Cincy 32

4th & 3Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +1.72

Clayton Tune pass complete to Nathaniel Dell for 5 yds to the Cincy 27 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty-10 yds

HOUSTON Penalty, Offensive Holding (Tank Jenkins) to the Cincy 37

1st & 20Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.73

Alton McCaskill run for 1 yd to the Cincy 36

2nd & 19Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.00

Clayton Tune pass incomplete to Jeremy Singleton

3rd & 19Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.46

Clayton Tune pass complete to Nathaniel Dell for 7 yds to the Cincy 29

4th & 12Field Goal Good+46 yds

Dalton Witherspoon 46 yd FG GOOD

4th & 12Kickoff Return (Offense)+37 yds

Bubba Baxa kickoff for 57 yds , Tre Tucker return for 37 yds to the CINCINNATI 28 HOUSTON Penalty, Horse Collar Tackle (William White) to the Houst 40

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.85

Desmond Ridder pass incomplete to Alec Pierce

2nd & 10Pass Reception+19 ydsPPA +1.40

Desmond Ridder pass complete to Ryan Montgomery for 19 yds to the Houst 21 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+13 ydsPPA +0.31

Desmond Ridder run for 13 yds to the Houst 8 for a 1ST down

1st & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.36

Desmond Ridder pass incomplete to Alec Pierce

2nd & 8Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.15

Jerome Ford run for 2 yds to the Houst 6

3rd & 6Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.23

Jerome Ford run for 1 yd to the Houst 5

4th & 0Field Goal Missed+23 yds

Christian Lowery 23 yd FG MISSED

1st & 10Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.09

Clayton Tune pass complete to Nathaniel Dell for 5 yds to the Houst 25

2nd & 5Pass Reception+23 ydsPPA +2.29

Clayton Tune pass complete to Seth Green for 23 yds to the Houst 48 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.40

Ta'Zhawn Henry run for 3 yds to the Cincy 49

2nd & 7Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.16

Clayton Tune run for 4 yds to the Cincy 45

3rd & 3Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.12

Clayton Tune pass incomplete to Nathaniel Dell

4th & 3Punt0 yds

Laine Wilkins punt for 30 yds, fair catch by Ryan Montgomery at the Cincy 15

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.29

Desmond Ridder run for 2 yds to the Cincy 17

2nd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.28

Desmond Ridder pass incomplete to Alec Pierce

3rd & 8Penalty-5 yds

CINCINNATI Penalty, False Start (Jeremy Cooper) to the Cincy 12

3rd & 13Sack-10 ydsPPA -0.08

Desmond Ridder sacked by Logan Hall for a loss of 10 yards to the Cincy 2

4th & 23Punt0 yds

Mason Fletcher punt for 50 yds, downed at the Houst 48

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.10

Clayton Tune run for 5 yds to the Cincy 47

2nd & 5Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.67

Alton McCaskill run for 2 yds to the Cincy 45

3rd & 3Rush+5 ydsPPA +1.39

Clayton Tune run for 5 yds to the Cincy 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-4 ydsPPA -1.71

Alton McCaskill run for a loss of 4 yards to the Cincy 44

2nd & 14Sack-9 ydsPPA -2.11

Clayton Tune sacked by Ahmad Gardner for a loss of 9 yards to the Houst 47

3rd & 23Penalty-5 yds

HOUSTON Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Houst 42

3rd & 28Rush+10 ydsPPA +0.24

Ta'Zhawn Henry run for 10 yds to the Cincy 48

4th & 18Penalty+5 yds

CINCINNATI Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the Cincy 43

4th & 13Punt0 yds

Laine Wilkins punt for 20 yds, downed at the Cincy 23

1st & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +1.20

Jerome Ford run for 9 yds to the Cincy 32

2nd & 1Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.22

Desmond Ridder pass incomplete to Tre Tucker

3rd & 2Rush0 ydsPPA -0.57

Ryan Montgomery run for no gain to the Cincy 32

4th & 2Punt0 yds

Mason Fletcher punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Marcus Jones at the Houst 22

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.70

TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Houst 21

0th & 10End of Half0 yds

End of 2nd Quarter

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.09

Jerome Ford run for 5 yds to the Cincy 30

2nd & 5Pass Reception+44 ydsPPA +3.26

Desmond Ridder pass complete to Alec Pierce for 44 yds to the Houst 26 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.25

Jerome Ford run for 2 yds to the Houst 24

2nd & 8Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.42

Jerome Ford run for 1 yd to the Houst 23

3rd & 7Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.09

Jerome Ford run for 4 yds to the Houst 19

4th & 3Penalty+11 yds

HOUSTON Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Marcus Jones) to the Houst 8 for a 1ST down

1st & 8Passing Touchdown+8 ydsPPA +2.32

Desmond Ridder pass complete to Leonard Taylor for 8 yds for a TD, (Christian Lowery KICK)

1st & 10Kickoff Return (Offense)+24 yds

Alex Bales kickoff for 61 yds , Marcus Jones return for 24 yds to the Houst 28

1st & 10Pass Interception Return+9 ydsPPA -1.14

Clayton Tune pass intercepted Joel Dublanko return for 9 yds to the Houst 23

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.23

Jerome Ford run for 2 yds to the Houst 21

2nd & 8Passing Touchdown+21 ydsPPA +2.89

Desmond Ridder pass complete to Alec Pierce for 21 yds for a TD, (Christian Lowery KICK)

2nd & 8Kickoff Return (Offense)+1 yds

Alex Bales kickoff for 38 yds , Seth Green return for 1 yd to the Houst 28

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.80

Ta'Zhawn Henry run for no gain to the Houst 28

2nd & 10Sack-7 ydsPPA -0.66

Clayton Tune sacked by Jowon Briggs for a loss of 7 yards to the Houst 21

3rd & 17Penalty-5 yds

HOUSTON Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Houst 16

3rd & 22Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.00

Ta'Zhawn Henry run for 4 yds to the Houst 20

4th & 18Punt0 yds

Laine Wilkins punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Ryan Montgomery at the Cincy 38

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.67

Desmond Ridder run for 2 yds to the Cincy 40

2nd & 8Pass Reception+18 ydsPPA +2.32

Desmond Ridder pass complete to Josh Whyle for 18 yds to the Houst 42 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rushing Touchdown+42 ydsPPA +3.29

Jerome Ford run for 42 yds for a TD, (Christian Lowery KICK)

1st & 10Rush+10 ydsPPA +0.84

Clayton Tune run for 10 yds to the Houst 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.01

Clayton Tune pass incomplete to Jeremy Singleton

2nd & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.50

Alton McCaskill run for 1 yd to the Houst 36

3rd & 9Fumble Recovery (Own)-8 ydsPPA -0.58

TEAM run for a loss of 8 yards to the Houst 28 TEAM fumbled, recovered by Houst Dennis Bardwell

4th & 17Punt0 yds

Laine Wilkins punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Ryan Montgomery at the Cincy 34

1st & 10Rush+12 ydsPPA +1.15

Jerome Ford run for 12 yds to the Cincy 46 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.67

Jerome Ford run for 2 yds to the Cincy 48

2nd & 8Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.41

Tre Tucker run for 3 yds to the Houst 49 Tre Tucker fumbled, forced by Marcus Jones, recovered by Cincy

3rd & 5Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.16

Desmond Ridder pass complete to Ryan Montgomery for 4 yds to the Houst 45

4th & 1Rush0 ydsPPA -1.57

Jerome Ford run for no gain to the Houst 45

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.66

Clayton Tune run for 7 yds to the Cincy 48

2nd & 3Sack-2 ydsPPA -1.75

Clayton Tune sacked by Joel Dublanko for a loss of 2 yards to the 50 yard line

3rd & 5Sack-11 ydsPPA -1.86

Clayton Tune sacked by Curtis Brooks for a loss of 11 yards to the Houst 39

4th & 16Punt0 yds

Laine Wilkins punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Ryan Montgomery at the Cincy 25

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.33

Jerome Ford run for 6 yds to the Cincy 31

2nd & 4Rush+18 ydsPPA +1.82

Jerome Ford run for 18 yds to the Cincy 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception0 ydsPPA -1.13

Desmond Ridder pass complete to Josh Whyle for no gain to the Cincy 49

2nd & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.82

Ryan Montgomery run for 1 yd to the 50 yard line

3rd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.75

Desmond Ridder pass incomplete to Jerome Ford

4th & 9Punt0 yds

Mason Fletcher punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Marcus Jones at the Houst 10

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.23

Alton McCaskill run for 2 yds to the Houst 12

2nd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.22

Clayton Tune pass incomplete to Jake Herslow

3rd & 8Penalty+15 yds

CINCINNATI Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Arquon Bush) to the Houst 27 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.32

Clayton Tune run for 3 yds to the Houst 30

2nd & 7Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.70

Ta'Zhawn Henry run for a loss of 1 yard to the Houst 29

3rd & 8Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.23

Clayton Tune pass complete to Jake Herslow for 7 yds to the Houst 36

4th & 1Rush+7 ydsPPA +2.26

Clayton Tune run for 7 yds to the Houst 43 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Sack-4 ydsPPA -1.90

Clayton Tune sacked by Malik Vann for a loss of 4 yards to the Houst 39

2nd & 14Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.54

Clayton Tune pass incomplete to Nathaniel Dell

3rd & 14Pass Reception+53 ydsPPA +4.59

Clayton Tune pass complete to Nathaniel Dell for 53 yds to the Cincy 8 for a 1ST down

1st & 8Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.12

Clayton Tune run for a loss of 2 yards to the Cincy 10 for a 1ST down CINCINNATI Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (Jowon Briggs) to the Cincy 5 for a 1ST down

1st & 5Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.18

Alton McCaskill run for 3 yds to the Cincy 2

2nd & 0Penalty-10 yds

HOUSTON Penalty, Offensive Holding (Cam'Ron Johnson) to the Cincy 12

2nd & 12Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.03

Clayton Tune run for 5 yds to the Cincy 7

3rd & 7Passing Touchdown+7 ydsPPA +2.88

Clayton Tune pass complete to Jake Herslow for 7 yds for a TD, (Dalton Witherspoon KICK)

1st & 10Rush-4 ydsPPA -1.55

Jerome Ford run for a loss of 4 yards to the Cincy 31

2nd & 14Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.34

Desmond Ridder pass incomplete to Tyler Scott

3rd & 14Rush+10 ydsPPA +0.40

Desmond Ridder run for 10 yds to the Cincy 41

4th & 4Penalty-5 yds

CINCINNATI Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Cincy 36

4th & 9Punt0 yds

Mason Fletcher punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Marcus Jones at the Houst 18

1st & 10Pass Reception+24 ydsPPA +1.93

Clayton Tune pass complete to Nathaniel Dell for 24 yds to the Houst 42 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.43

Alton McCaskill run for 3 yds to the Houst 45

2nd & 7Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +1.52

Clayton Tune pass complete to Peyton Sawyer for 10 yds to the Cincy 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.77

Alton McCaskill run for 1 yd to the Cincy 44

2nd & 9Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.39

Clayton Tune run for 3 yds to the Cincy 41

3rd & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.06

Clayton Tune pass incomplete to Jake Herslow

4th & 6Sack-7 ydsPPA -1.30

Clayton Tune sacked by Myjai Sanders and Marcus Brown for a loss of 7 yards to the Cincy 48

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -1.14

Jerome Ford run for no gain to the Cincy 48

2nd & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.39

Desmond Ridder run for 3 yds to the Houst 49

3rd & 7Rush-1 ydsPPA -1.01

Desmond Ridder run for a loss of 1 yard to the 50 yard line

4th & 8Punt+14 yds

Mason Fletcher punt for 42 yds , Marcus Jones returns for 14 yds to the Houst 22

1st & 10Rush+12 ydsPPA +0.94

Chandler Smith run for 12 yds to the Houst 34 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.99

Chandler Smith run for no gain to the Houst 34

Situational Analysis

Houston

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
50%
2 plays
35%
31 plays
0%
1 play
2nd
0%
1 play
75%
4 plays
18%
11 plays
40%
5 plays
3rd
50%
2 plays
0%
2 plays
71%
7 plays
75%
4 plays
4th
100%
2 plays
0%
1 play

Cincinnati

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
55%
22 plays
2nd
0%
1 play
100%
3 plays
33%
9 plays
0%
1 play
3rd
0%
1 play
0%
2 plays
0%
3 plays
50%
2 plays
4th
0%
1 play