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← Back to GamesNov 28, 2021Week 13
Conference Game

House Prediction

Model Margin

Nevada by 12.7

Home Win Probability

Colorado State 19%

Market (consensus)

Colorado State +3

Edge: Nevada -3 (9.7 pts)

fitted_v1 · Nov 28, 2021

Line Movement

No line movement to chart

Sportsbook snapshots publish once a line is posted for this game.

Team1Q2Q3Q4QFinal
NevadaNevada
141771452
Colorado StateColorado State
007310

Scoring Timeline

Q1Q2Q3Q40142842560-140-210-280-317-317-387-4510-52
Colorado StateNevada

Drive Chart

Own 20Own 4050Opp 40Opp 20NEVCSNEVCSNEVCSNEVCSNEVCSNEVCSNEVCSNEVCSNEVCSNEVCSNEVCSNEVCSNEVCSNEVCSNEVTD575ydDOWNS529ydTD154ydPUNT713ydPUNT512ydPUNT617ydTD978ydTO34ydTD532ydTO361ydPUNT33ydTO7-6ydFG419ydPUNT620ydEND724ydTD475ydPUNT37ydTO949ydTD499ydDOWNS45ydPUNT30ydDOWNS835ydMISS510ydTO323ydTD359ydDOWNS623ydTD448ydFG1160ydPUNT33yd

Box Score

Team statistics comparing Nevada and Colorado State
StatisticNevadaColorado State
Passing20-2719-30
Pass Yards302213
Rush Yards226230
Total Yards528443
Turnovers05
3rd Down5-126-19
Penalties2-205-50
Possession28:5631:04

Player Leaders

Player Leaders

Nevada
passing
Carson Strong
17/22, 288 YDS, 4 TD
rushing
Avery Morrow
5 CAR, 88 YDS, 1 TD
receiving
Tory Horton
4 REC, 113 YDS, 2 TD
defense
Colorado State
passing
Todd Centeio
15/24, 185 YDS, 2 INT
rushing
Trey McBride
1 CAR, 69 YDS, 1 TD
receiving
Trey McBride
6 REC, 113 YDS
defense

Play-by-Play

1st & 10Pass Reception+15 ydsPPA +1.32

Carson Strong pass complete to Tory Horton for 15 yds to the Nevad 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+24 ydsPPA +1.75

Devonte Lee run for 24 yds to the ColSt 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception0 ydsPPA -0.72

Carson Strong pass complete to Cole Turner for no gain to the ColSt 36

2nd & 10Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +0.73

Carson Strong pass complete to Romeo Doubs for 9 yds to the ColSt 27

3rd & 1Passing Touchdown+27 ydsPPA +3.00

Carson Strong pass complete to Tory Horton for 27 yds for a TD (Brandon Talton KICK)

1st & 10Pass Reception+21 ydsPPA +1.89

Todd Centeio pass complete to Trey McBride for 21 yds to the ColSt 46 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -1.16

David Bailey run for no gain to the ColSt 46

2nd & 10Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.57

Todd Centeio pass complete to Ty McCullouch for 7 yds to the Nevad 47

3rd & 3Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.89

David Bailey run for 1 yd to the Nevad 46

4th & 2Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.34

Todd Centeio pass incomplete

4th & 2Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.34

Todd Centeio pass incomplete

1st & 10Passing Touchdown+54 ydsPPA +4.18

Carson Strong pass complete to Tory Horton for 54 yds for a TD (Brandon Talton KICK)

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.36

David Bailey run for 3 yds to the ColSt 33

2nd & 7Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.32

Todd Centeio run for 6 yds to the ColSt 39

3rd & 1Rush+2 ydsPPA +1.07

David Bailey run for 2 yds to the ColSt 41 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +0.97

Todd Centeio pass complete to Trey McBride for 11 yds to the Nevad 48 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.13

A'Jon Vivens run for 4 yds to the Nevad 44

2nd & 6Sack0 ydsPPA -1.11

Todd Centeio sacked by Kameron Toomer for 0 yards to the 50 yard line

3rd & 12Sack0 ydsPPA -0.62

Todd Centeio sacked by Tristan Nichols and Sam Hammond for 0 yards to the ColSt 43

4th & 19Punt0 yds

Ryan Stonehouse punt for 42 yds

4th & 19Punt0 yds

Ryan Stonehouse punt for 42 yds

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.19

Devonte Lee run for 3 yds to the Nevad 18

2nd & 7Rush+9 ydsPPA +0.87

Toa Taua run for 9 yds to the Nevad 27 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Fumble Recovery (Own)-10 ydsPPA -1.35

sacked by Scott Patchan for a loss of 10 yards to the Nevad 25 Carson Strong fumbled, recovered by Nevad Tory Horton , return for 0 yards

2nd & 12Pass Reception+2 ydsPPA -0.19

Carson Strong pass complete to Romeo Doubs for 2 yds to the Nevad 27

3rd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.18

Carson Strong pass incomplete

4th & 10Punt0 yds

Julian Diaz punt for 50 yds , Dante Wright returns for no gain to the ColSt 23

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.64

David Bailey run for no gain to the ColSt 23

2nd & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.04

David Bailey run for 5 yds to the ColSt 28

3rd & 5Pass Reception+17 ydsPPA +2.54

Todd Centeio pass complete to Trey McBride for 17 yds to the ColSt 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+2 ydsPPA -0.68

Todd Centeio pass complete to David Bailey for 2 yds to the ColSt 47

2nd & 8Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.41

David Bailey run for 3 yds to the 50 yard line

3rd & 5Penalty-5 yds

COLORADO ST Penalty, False Start (Cameron Butler) to the ColSt 45

3rd & 10Sack0 ydsPPA -0.55

Todd Centeio sacked by Sam Hammond for 0 yards to the ColSt 40

4th & 15Punt+12 yds

Ryan Stonehouse punt for 50 yds , Romeo Doubs returns for 12 yds to the Nevad 22

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.51

Toa Taua run for 1 yd to the Nevad 23

2nd & 9Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +1.36

Carson Strong pass complete to Toa Taua for 10 yds to the Nevad 33 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+13 ydsPPA +1.24

Devonte Lee run for 13 yds to the Nevad 46 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+27 ydsPPA +1.44

Carson Strong pass complete to Toa Taua for 27 yds to the ColSt 27 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-2 ydsPPA -0.74

Toa Taua run for a loss of 2 yards to the ColSt 29

2nd & 12Rush+13 ydsPPA +0.92

Toa Taua run for 13 yds to the ColSt 16 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.11

Toa Taua run for 3 yds to the ColSt 13

2nd & 7Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +1.21

Carson Strong pass complete to Harry Ballard III for 10 yds to the ColSt 3 for a 1ST down

1st & 3Rushing Touchdown+3 ydsPPA +1.46

Devonte Lee run for 3 yds for a TD (Brandon Talton KICK)

1st & 10Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.11

Todd Centeio pass complete to Dante Wright for 4 yds to the ColSt 29

2nd & 6Fumble Recovery (Own)0 ydsPPA -0.65

Todd Centeio run for no gain to the ColSt 29 fumbled, recovered by ColSt Todd Centeio

3rd & 6Pass Interception Return0 ydsPPA -0.16

Todd Centeio pass intercepted return for no gain to the ColSt 32

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.53

Toa Taua run for 8 yds to the ColSt 24

2nd & 2Rush-2 ydsPPA -0.93

Toa Taua run for a loss of 2 yards to the ColSt 26

3rd & 4Rush+9 ydsPPA +0.70

Devonte Lee run for 9 yds to the ColSt 17 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.18

Devonte Lee run for 6 yds to the ColSt 11

2nd & 4Passing Touchdown+11 ydsPPA +2.40

Carson Strong pass complete to Romeo Doubs for 11 yds for a TD (Brandon Talton KICK)

1st & 10Pass Reception+27 ydsPPA +2.39

Todd Centeio pass complete to Trey McBride for 27 yds to the Nevad 48 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+11 ydsPPA +0.63

Ty McCullouch run for 11 yds to the Nevad 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+23 ydsPPA +0.50

Todd Centeio pass complete to Trey McBride for 23 yds to the Nevad 14

1st & 10Pass Reception+2 ydsPPA -0.27

Carson Strong pass complete to Melquan Stovall for 2 yds to the Nevad 16

2nd & 8Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.23

Avery Morrow run for 1 yd to the Nevad 17

3rd & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.14

Carson Strong pass incomplete

4th & 7Punt0 yds

Julian Diaz punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Dante Wright at the ColSt 38

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.71

Todd Centeio run for 7 yds to the ColSt 45

2nd & 3Rush+4 ydsPPA +0.32

A'Jon Vivens run for 4 yds to the ColSt 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.35

A'Jon Vivens run for 6 yds to the Nevad 45

2nd & 4Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA +0.33

Todd Centeio pass complete to Dante Wright for 4 yds to the Nevad 41 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.10

Todd Centeio run for 4 yds to the Nevad 37

2nd & 6Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.10

Jaylen Thomas run for 4 yds to the Nevad 33

3rd & 2Penalty-5 yds

CENTEIO, Todd pass to the right complete for 20 yards to MCBRIDE, Trey caught at the NEV32 and advanced to the NEV13 (CLAIBORNE, JoJuan;HENLEY, Daiyan). PENALTY Before the snap, CSU Illegal Formation on WILLIAMS, Gary enforced 5 yards from the NEV33 to the NEV38. NO PLAY (replay the down).

3rd & 7Penalty-15 yds

COLORADO ST Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (-15 Yards) to the ColSt 47

3rd & 22Penalty-10 yds

CENTEIO, Todd pass to the right complete for 19 yards to BUTLER, Cam caught at the NEV34 and advanced to the NEV34 (CLAIBORNE, JoJuan). PENALTY CSU Holding on REDDY, Cam enforced 10 yards from the CSU47 to the CSU37 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

3rd & 32Sack0 ydsPPA -0.05

Todd Centeio sacked for 0 yards to the ColSt 32

1st & 10Penalty+15 yds

COLORADO ST Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (15 Yards) to the ColSt 17 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.42

Devonte Lee run for a loss of 1 yard to the ColSt 18

2nd & 11Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.44

Carson Strong pass incomplete

3rd & 11Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.03

Carson Strong pass complete to Cole Turner for 5 yds to the ColSt 13

4th & 6Field Goal Good+30 yds

Brandon Talton 30 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.11

Todd Centeio pass complete to Dante Wright for 4 yds to the ColSt 29

2nd & 6Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.42

A'Jon Vivens run for 2 yds to the ColSt 31

3rd & 4Pass Reception+14 ydsPPA +2.34

Todd Centeio pass complete to Trey McBride for 14 yds to the ColSt 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.16

Todd Centeio pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.07

Jaylen Thomas run for 5 yds to the 50 yard line

3rd & 5Sack0 ydsPPA -0.94

Todd Centeio sacked by Daniel Grzesiak and Dom Peterson for 0 yards to the ColSt 45

4th & 10Punt+12 yds

Ryan Stonehouse punt for 51 yds , Romeo Doubs returns for 12 yds to the Nevad 16

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.20

Carson Strong run for 3 yds to the Nevad 19

2nd & 7Sack0 ydsPPA -0.36

Carson Strong sacked by Scott Patchan for 0 yards to the Nevad 12

3rd & 14Pass Reception+17 ydsPPA +1.56

Carson Strong pass complete to Tory Horton for 17 yds to the Nevad 29 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.98

Carson Strong pass complete to Melquan Stovall for 8 yds to the Nevad 37

2nd & 2Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.25

Carson Strong pass incomplete

3rd & 2Rush+8 ydsPPA +1.76

Toa Taua run for 8 yds to the Nevad 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Sack0 ydsPPA -1.16

Carson Strong sacked by Scott Patchan and Mohamed Kamara for 0 yards to the Nevad 40

0th & 10End of Half0 yds

End of 2nd Quarter

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.60

A'Jon Vivens run for 7 yds to the ColSt 32

2nd & 3Rush-1 ydsPPA -1.14

A'Jon Vivens run for a loss of 1 yard to the ColSt 31

3rd & 4Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.44

Todd Centeio pass incomplete

4th & 4Rushing Touchdown+69 ydsPPA +7.05

Trey McBride run for 69 yds for a TD (Cayden Camper KICK)

1st & 10Rush-2 ydsPPA -1.50

Toa Taua run for a loss of 2 yards to the Nevad 38

2nd & 12Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.60

Carson Strong pass incomplete

3rd & 12Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +0.53

Carson Strong pass complete to Romeo Doubs for 9 yds to the Nevad 47

4th & 3Punt0 yds

Julian Diaz punt for 28 yds

1st & 10Pass Reception+27 ydsPPA +2.39

Todd Centeio pass complete to Dante Wright for 27 yds to the Nevad 48 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.13

A'Jon Vivens run for 4 yds to the Nevad 44

2nd & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.11

Todd Centeio pass incomplete

3rd & 6Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.17

Todd Centeio pass complete to Cameron Butler for 4 yds to the Nevad 40

4th & 2Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA +2.08

Todd Centeio pass complete to Dante Wright for 4 yds to the Nevad 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+16 ydsPPA +0.39

Todd Centeio pass complete to Gary Williams for 16 yds to the Nevad 20 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-4 ydsPPA -0.76

Ty McCullouch run for a loss of 4 yards to the Nevad 24

2nd & 14Sack0 ydsPPA -0.68

Todd Centeio sacked by Zak Mahannah and Amir Johnson for 0 yards to the Nevad 26

3rd & 16Pass Interception Return0 ydsPPA -2.57

Todd Centeio pass intercepted return for no gain to the Nevad 1

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.06

Toa Taua run for 5 yds to the Nevad 6

2nd & 5Rush+12 ydsPPA +0.44

Toa Taua run for 12 yds to the Nevad 18 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+16 ydsPPA +1.15

Carson Strong pass complete to Melquan Stovall for 16 yds to the Nevad 34 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Passing Touchdown+66 ydsPPA +5.34

Carson Strong pass complete to Romeo Doubs for 66 yds for a TD (Brandon Talton KICK)

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.09

Todd Centeio pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.69

Todd Centeio pass incomplete

3rd & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.03

Todd Centeio run for 5 yds to the ColSt 43

4th & 5Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.30

Todd Centeio pass incomplete

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -1.16

Toa Taua run for a loss of 1 yard to the ColSt 44

2nd & 11Penalty-10 yds

TAUA, Toa rush up the middle for no gain to the CSU44 (MCBRIDE, Toby;FRANCIS, Tywan). PENALTY NEV Holding on ORSINI, Tyler enforced 10 yards from the CSU44 to the NEV46 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

2nd & 21Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.48

Nate Cox pass incomplete

3rd & 21Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +0.70

Nate Cox pass complete to Harry Ballard III for 11 yds to the ColSt 43

4th & 10Punt0 yds

Nate Cox punt for 32 yds, downed at the ColSt 11

1st & 10Rush+12 ydsPPA +0.55

Evan Olaes run for 12 yds to the ColSt 23 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.42

Jaylen Thomas run for 2 yds to the ColSt 25

2nd & 8Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.07

Evan Olaes run for 4 yds to the ColSt 29

3rd & 4Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +1.75

Evan Olaes pass complete to Gary Williams for 9 yds to the ColSt 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.11

Jaylen Thomas run for 5 yds to the ColSt 43

2nd & 5Rush-1 ydsPPA -1.32

A'Jon Vivens run for a loss of 1 yard to the ColSt 42

3rd & 6Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.12

Evan Olaes run for 4 yds to the ColSt 46

4th & 2Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.72

Evan Olaes pass incomplete

1st & 10Rush+14 ydsPPA +0.67

Toa Taua run for 14 yds to the ColSt 32 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty-10 yds

TAUA, Toa rush to the right for a gain of 2 yards to the CSU30 (AJAYI, Rashad). PENALTY NEV Holding on BALLARD, Harry enforced 10 yards from the CSU32 to the CSU42 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

1st & 20Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.37

Toa Taua run for 3 yds to the ColSt 39

2nd & 17Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +0.85

Nate Cox pass complete to Melquan Stovall for 9 yds to the ColSt 30

3rd & 8Pass Reception-6 ydsPPA -2.18

Nate Cox pass complete to Toa Taua for a loss of 6 yards to the ColSt 36

4th & 14Field Goal Missed+53 yds

Brandon Talton 53 yd FG MISSED

1st & 10Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +1.38

Evan Olaes pass complete to Tanner Arkin for 9 yds to the ColSt 45

2nd & 1Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.33

Alex Berrouet run for 2 yds to the ColSt 47 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+12 ydsPPA +0.85

Alex Berrouet run for 12 yds to the Nevad 41

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.17

Avery Morrow run for 4 yds to the Nevad 45

2nd & 6Rush+40 ydsPPA +2.27

Avery Morrow run for 40 yds to the ColSt 15 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rushing Touchdown+15 ydsPPA +2.56

Nate Cox run for 15 yds for a TD (Brandon Talton KICK)

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.91

Evan Olaes run for 8 yds to the ColSt 33

2nd & 2Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.31

Evan Olaes run for 6 yds to the ColSt 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-4 ydsPPA -1.75

Evan Olaes run for a loss of 4 yards to the ColSt 35

2nd & 14Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.04

Evan Olaes pass complete to Gary Williams for 5 yds to the ColSt 40

3rd & 9Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.35

Evan Olaes run for 7 yds to the ColSt 47

4th & 2Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.78

Evan Olaes run for 1 yd to the ColSt 48

1st & 10Rush+42 ydsPPA +1.63

Avery Morrow run for 42 yds to the ColSt 6 for a 1ST down

1st & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.48

Nate Cox pass incomplete

2nd & 6Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.07

Nate Cox run for 5 yds to the ColSt 1

3rd & 1Rushing Touchdown+1 ydsPPA +2.45

Avery Morrow run for 1 yd for a TD (Brandon Talton KICK)

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.11

Evan Olaes run for 4 yds to the ColSt 29

2nd & 6Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.11

Jaylen Thomas run for 4 yds to the ColSt 33

3rd & 2Rush+3 ydsPPA +1.15

Alex Berrouet run for 3 yds to the ColSt 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+26 ydsPPA +2.05

Alex Berrouet run for 26 yds to the Nevad 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.25

Alex Berrouet run for 3 yds to the Nevad 35

2nd & 7Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.28

Alex Berrouet run for 3 yds to the Nevad 32

3rd & 4Rush+11 ydsPPA +0.99

Evan Olaes run for 11 yds to the Nevad 21 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.39

Evan Olaes pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.37

Alex Berrouet run for 1 yd to the Nevad 20

3rd & 9Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.04

Evan Olaes pass complete to Gerick Robinson for 5 yds to the Nevad 15

4th & 4Field Goal Good+33 yds

Cayden Camper 33 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Rush-2 ydsPPA -0.89

Wesley Kommer run for a loss of 2 yards to the Nevad 23

2nd & 12Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.05

Clay Millen run for 4 yds to the Nevad 27

3rd & 8Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.19

Wesley Kommer run for 1 yd to the Nevad 28

4th & 7Punt0 yds

Julian Diaz punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Dante Wright at the ColSt 30

Situational Analysis

Nevada

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
100%
1 play
0%
1 play
50%
28 plays
0%
1 play
2nd
0%
2 plays
100%
4 plays
67%
6 plays
29%
7 plays
3rd
100%
3 plays
100%
1 play
0%
4 plays
100%
4 plays
4th

Colorado State

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
48%
33 plays
2nd
50%
4 plays
13%
8 plays
44%
9 plays
50%
2 plays
3rd
67%
3 plays
44%
9 plays
75%
4 plays
0%
3 plays
4th
20%
5 plays
50%
2 plays