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← Back to GamesNov 14, 2021Week 11
Conference Game

House Prediction

Model Margin

San Diego State by 4.7

Home Win Probability

San Diego State 59%

Market (consensus)

San Diego State -2.5

Edge: San Diego State -2.5 (2.2 pts)

fitted_v1 · Nov 14, 2021

Line Movement

No line movement to chart

Sportsbook snapshots publish once a line is posted for this game.

Team1Q2Q3Q4QFinal
NevadaNevada
077721
San Diego StateSan Diego State
737623

Scoring Timeline

Q1Q2Q3Q4014287-07-710-717-717-1420-2123-21
San Diego StateNevada

Drive Chart

Own 20Own 4050Opp 40Opp 20SDSNEVSDSNEVSDSNEVSDSNEVSDSNEVSDSNEVSDSNEVSDSNEVSDSNEVSDSNEVSDSNEVSDSPUNT33ydPUNT934ydTD1299ydTD885ydFG936ydPUNT510ydPUNT617ydPUNT729ydMISS642ydPUNT41ydTD875ydPUNT3-6ydPUNT728ydTD980ydPUNT32ydPUNT3-2ydFG715ydTD475ydPUNT35ydPUNT68ydFG1253ydDOWNS524ydEND1-1yd

Box Score

Team statistics comparing Nevada and San Diego State
StatisticNevadaSan Diego State
Passing34-4821-34
Pass Yards350176
Rush Yards8186
Total Yards358362
Turnovers00
3rd Down4-133-15
Penalties9-772-20
Possession26:3233:28

Player Leaders

Player Leaders

Nevada
passing
Carson Strong
34/48, 350 YDS, 3 TD
rushing
Toa Taua
9 CAR, 31 YDS
receiving
Romeo Doubs
9 REC, 127 YDS, 2 TD
defense
San Diego State
passing
Lucas Johnson
21/34, 176 YDS, 1 TD
rushing
Greg Bell
16 CAR, 104 YDS
receiving
Elijah Kothe
6 REC, 71 YDS
defense

Play-by-Play

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.26

Greg Bell run for 3 yds to the SDSt 25

2nd & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.48

Lucas Johnson pass incomplete

3rd & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.22

Lucas Johnson pass incomplete

4th & 7Punt+13 yds

Matt Araiza punt for 60 yds , Romeo Doubs returns for 13 yds to the Nevad 28

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.13

Toa Taua run for 4 yds to the Nevad 32

2nd & 6Pass Reception+15 ydsPPA +1.89

Carson Strong pass complete to Melquan Stovall for 15 yds to the Nevad 47 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.15

Carson Strong pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.84

Toa Taua run for 8 yds to the SDSt 45

3rd & 2Rush0 ydsPPA -1.16

Devonte Lee run for no gain to the SDSt 45

4th & 2Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA +2.27

Carson Strong pass complete to Romeo Doubs for 3 yds to the SDSt 42 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.10

Carson Strong pass complete to Tory Horton for 4 yds to the SDSt 38

2nd & 6Pass Reception+2 ydsPPA -0.52

Carson Strong pass complete to Devonte Lee for 2 yds to the SDSt 36

3rd & 4Rush-2 ydsPPA -1.50

Toa Taua run for a loss of 2 yards to the SDSt 38

4th & 6Punt0 yds

Carson Strong punt for 37 yds, downed at the SDSt 1

1st & 10Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.45

Lucas Johnson pass complete to Elijah Kothe for 8 yds to the SDSt 9

2nd & 2Rush+50 ydsPPA +3.30

Greg Bell run for 50 yds to the Nevad 41 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +0.86

Chance Bell run for 9 yds to the Nevad 32

2nd & 1Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.38

Chance Bell run for 4 yds to the Nevad 28 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.08

Lucas Johnson run for 5 yds to the Nevad 23

2nd & 5Fumble Recovery (Own)-8 ydsPPA -1.87

Greg Bell run for a loss of 8 yards to the Nevad 31 fumbled, recovered by SDSt Jordan Byrd

3rd & 13Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +1.25

Lucas Johnson pass complete to Elijah Kothe for 12 yds to the Nevad 19

4th & 1Rush+9 ydsPPA +0.79

Greg Bell run for 9 yds to the Nevad 10 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.08

Greg Bell run for 5 yds to the Nevad 5

2nd & 5Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.32

Lucas Johnson pass incomplete

3rd & 5Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.29

Lucas Johnson pass incomplete

4th & 5Penalty0 yds

NEVADA Penalty, Defensive Holding (Dom Peterson) to the Nevad 2 for a 1ST down

1st & 2Passing Touchdown+2 ydsPPA +1.21

Lucas Johnson pass complete to Daniel Bellinger for 2 yds for a TD (Matt Araiza KICK)

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.45

Toa Taua run for 7 yds to the Nevad 22

2nd & 3Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.48

Carson Strong pass complete to Romeo Doubs for 8 yds to the Nevad 30 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.14

Carson Strong pass complete to Tory Horton for 4 yds to the Nevad 34

2nd & 6Penalty+15 yds

STRONG, Carson pass to the right incomplete intended for DOUBS, Romeo broken up by THOMPSON, Trenton at the SDS19. PENALTY SDS Pass Interference on THOMPSON, Trenton enforced 15 yards to the NEV49 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

1st & 10Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.10

Carson Strong pass complete to Melquan Stovall for 5 yds to the SDSt 46

2nd & 5Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.91

Toa Taua run for 1 yd to the SDSt 45

3rd & 4Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +1.68

Carson Strong pass complete to Justin Lockhart for 8 yds to the SDSt 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +0.78

Carson Strong pass complete to Devonte Lee for 9 yds to the SDSt 28

2nd & 1Passing Touchdown+28 ydsPPA +2.27

Carson Strong pass complete to Tory Horton for 28 yds for a TD (Brandon Talton KICK)

1st & 10Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.40

Lucas Johnson pass complete to Tyrell Shavers for 3 yds to the SDSt 37

2nd & 7Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.09

Lucas Johnson pass complete to Daniel Bellinger for 5 yds to the SDSt 42

3rd & 2Rush+3 ydsPPA +1.37

Lucas Johnson run for 3 yds to the SDSt 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.16

Greg Bell run for 4 yds to the SDSt 49

2nd & 6Rush+13 ydsPPA +1.34

Greg Bell run for 13 yds to the Nevad 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.42

Lucas Johnson pass complete to Elijah Kothe for 7 yds to the Nevad 31

2nd & 3Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.42

Greg Bell run for 2 yds to the Nevad 29

3rd & 1Rush-1 ydsPPA -1.06

Greg Bell run for a loss of 1 yard to the Nevad 30

4th & 2Field Goal Good+48 yds

Matt Araiza 48 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.11

Carson Strong pass complete to Romeo Doubs for 4 yds to the Nevad 29

2nd & 6Rush+10 ydsPPA +1.34

Toa Taua run for 10 yds to the Nevad 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Sack0 ydsPPA -1.11

Carson Strong sacked by Jalil Lecky for 0 yards to the Nevad 31

2nd & 18Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.05

Carson Strong pass complete to Toa Taua for 4 yds to the Nevad 35

3rd & 14Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.21

Carson Strong pass incomplete

4th & 14Punt0 yds

Julian Diaz punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Jordan Byrd at the SDSt 26

1st & 10Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.10

Lucas Johnson pass complete to Daniel Bellinger for 5 yds to the SDSt 31

2nd & 5Pass Reception+2 ydsPPA -0.50

Lucas Johnson pass complete to Jordan Byrd for 2 yds to the SDSt 33

3rd & 3Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +1.75

Lucas Johnson pass complete to Tyrell Shavers for 8 yds to the SDSt 41 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.40

Lucas Johnson pass complete to Daniel Bellinger for 6 yds to the SDSt 47

2nd & 4Rush+1 ydsPPA -1.00

Greg Bell run for 1 yd to the SDSt 48

3rd & 3Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.99

Lucas Johnson pass incomplete

4th & 3Penalty-5 yds

SAN DIEGO ST Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the SDSt 43

4th & 8Punt0 yds

Matt Araiza punt for 57 yds for a touchback

1st & 10Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +0.87

Carson Strong pass complete to Melquan Stovall for 12 yds to the Nevad 32 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.93

Carson Strong pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Reception+1 ydsPPA -0.43

Carson Strong pass complete to Toa Taua for 1 yd to the Nevad 33

3rd & 9Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +2.32

Carson Strong pass complete to Romeo Doubs for 9 yds to the Nevad 42 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.15

Carson Strong pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.82

Carson Strong pass incomplete

3rd & 10Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.35

Carson Strong pass complete to Devonte Lee for 7 yds to the Nevad 49

4th & 3Punt0 yds

Julian Diaz punt for 51 yds for a touchback

1st & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +1.11

Greg Bell run for 9 yds to the SDSt 29

2nd & 1Pass Reception+28 ydsPPA +1.92

Lucas Johnson pass complete to Elijah Kothe for 28 yds to the Nevad 43 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Sack0 ydsPPA -0.94

Lucas Johnson sacked by Daniel Grzesiak for 0 yards to the Nevad 44

2nd & 11Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.05

Lucas Johnson pass incomplete

3rd & 11Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.27

Lucas Johnson pass complete to Jesse Matthews for 6 yds to the Nevad 38

4th & 5Missed Field Goal Return+17 yds

Matt Araiza 55 yd FG MISSED , return for 17 yds to the Nevad 17

0th & 5End of Half0 yds

End of 2nd Quarter

1st & 10Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +1.03

Carson Strong pass complete to Melquan Stovall for 12 yds to the Nevad 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.87

Toa Taua run for 1 yd to the Nevad 38

2nd & 9Pass Reception+1 ydsPPA -0.62

Carson Strong pass complete to Justin Lockhart for 1 yd to the Nevad 39

3rd & 8Penalty-5 yds

NEVADA Penalty, False Start (TEAM) to the Nevad 34

3rd & 13Sack0 ydsPPA -0.21

Carson Strong sacked for 0 yards to the Nevad 26

4th & 21Punt0 yds

Julian Diaz punt for 49 yds

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.09

Greg Bell run for 5 yds to the SDSt 30

2nd & 5Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.84

Greg Bell run for 6 yds to the SDSt 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.16

Greg Bell run for 4 yds to the SDSt 40

2nd & 6Pass Reception+14 ydsPPA +1.77

Lucas Johnson pass complete to Jesse Matthews for 14 yds to the Nevad 46 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+18 ydsPPA +0.78

Chance Bell run for 18 yds to the Nevad 28 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty0 yds

NEVADA Penalty, Personal Foul (Dom Peterson) to the Nevad 14 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +0.61

Chance Bell run for 9 yds to the Nevad 5

2nd & 1Rushing Touchdown+5 ydsPPA +1.93

Chance Bell run for 5 yds for a TD (Matt Araiza KICK)

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -1.30

Toa Taua run for a loss of 1 yard to the Nevad 38

2nd & 11Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.64

Carson Strong pass incomplete

3rd & 11Rush-5 ydsPPA -0.50

Carson Strong run for a loss of 5 yards to the Nevad 33

4th & 16Punt+6 yds

Julian Diaz punt for 43 yds , Jordan Byrd returns for 6 yds to the SDSt 30

1st & 10Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +1.00

Lucas Johnson pass complete to Daniel Bellinger for 8 yds to the SDSt 38

2nd & 2Rush+3 ydsPPA +0.04

Greg Bell run for 3 yds to the SDSt 41 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.17

Lucas Johnson pass complete to Chance Bell for 4 yds to the SDSt 45

2nd & 6Pass Reception+15 ydsPPA +1.64

Lucas Johnson pass complete to Jesse Matthews for 15 yds to the Nevad 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.85

Lucas Johnson pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush-2 ydsPPA -1.46

Chance Bell run for a loss of 2 yards to the Nevad 42

3rd & 12Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.87

Lucas Johnson pass incomplete

4th & 12Punt0 yds

Matt Araiza punt for 42 yds for a touchback

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.56

Carson Strong pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Reception+14 ydsPPA +1.61

Carson Strong pass complete to Tory Horton for 14 yds to the Nevad 34 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty-15 yds

STRONG, Carson pass to the right complete for 1 yard to DOUBS, Romeo caught at the NEV31 and advanced to the NEV35 (TUMBLIN, Noah;OLUBI, Segun). PENALTY NEV Chop Block on STOVALL, Melquan enforced 15 yards from the NEV34 to the NEV19 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

1st & 25Pass Reception+17 ydsPPA +1.26

Carson Strong pass complete to Romeo Doubs for 17 yds to the Nevad 36

2nd & 8Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +1.58

Carson Strong pass complete to Tory Horton for 8 yds to the Nevad 44 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+17 ydsPPA +1.23

Carson Strong pass complete to Toa Taua for 17 yds to the SDSt 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+13 ydsPPA +0.42

Carson Strong pass complete to Tory Horton for 13 yds to the SDSt 26 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+21 ydsPPA +0.84

Carson Strong pass complete to Romeo Doubs for 21 yds to the SDSt 5 for a 1ST down

1st & 5Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.55

Carson Strong pass incomplete

2nd & 5Passing Touchdown+5 ydsPPA +2.44

Carson Strong pass complete to Romeo Doubs for 5 yds for a TD (Brandon Talton KICK)

1st & 10Pass Reception-3 ydsPPA -0.96

Lucas Johnson pass complete to Elijah Kothe for a loss of 3 yards to the SDSt 22

2nd & 13Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.24

Greg Bell run for a loss of 1 yard to the SDSt 21

3rd & 14Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.04

Lucas Johnson run for 6 yds to the SDSt 27

4th & 8Punt0 yds

Matt Araiza punt for 57 yds , Romeo Doubs returns for no gain to the Nevad 18

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.51

Carson Strong pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.10

Carson Strong pass complete to Tory Horton for 3 yds to the Nevad 21

3rd & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.18

Carson Strong pass incomplete

4th & 7Penalty-5 yds

NEVADA Penalty, False Start (Daniel Grzesiak) to the Nevad 16

4th & 12Punt+19 yds

punt for 40 yds , Jordan Byrd returns for 19 yds to the Nevad 37

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.57

Lucas Johnson run for 1 yd to the Nevad 36

2nd & 9Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.41

Kaegun Williams run for 7 yds to the Nevad 29

3rd & 2Rush+3 ydsPPA +0.49

Kaegun Williams run for 3 yds to the Nevad 26 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.36

Kaegun Williams run for 1 yd to the Nevad 25

2nd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.59

Lucas Johnson pass incomplete

3rd & 9Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.28

Kaegun Williams run for 3 yds to the Nevad 22

4th & 6Field Goal Good+39 yds

Matt Araiza 39 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.33

Carson Strong pass complete to Justin Lockhart for 6 yds to the Nevad 31

2nd & 4Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.36

Toa Taua run for 3 yds to the Nevad 34

3rd & 1Penalty-5 yds

NEVADA Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Nevad 29

3rd & 6Pass Reception+17 ydsPPA +2.66

Carson Strong pass complete to Tory Horton for 17 yds to the Nevad 46 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Passing Touchdown+54 ydsPPA +4.18

Carson Strong pass complete to Romeo Doubs for 54 yds for a TD (Brandon Talton KICK)

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.79

Chance Bell run for 1 yd to the SDSt 34

2nd & 9Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.11

Lucas Johnson pass complete to Tyrell Shavers for 4 yds to the SDSt 38

3rd & 5Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.57

Lucas Johnson pass incomplete

4th & 5Punt0 yds

Matt Araiza punt for 62 yds for a touchback

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.47

Carson Strong run for 1 yd to the Nevad 21

2nd & 9Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.05

Carson Strong pass complete to Melquan Stovall for 4 yds to the Nevad 25

3rd & 5Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +1.30

Carson Strong pass complete to Romeo Doubs for 6 yds to the Nevad 31 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Sack0 ydsPPA -0.89

Carson Strong sacked by Cameron Thomas for 0 yards to the Nevad 28

2nd & 13Penalty-5 yds

NEVADA Penalty, False Start (Jacob Gardner) to the Nevad 23

2nd & 18Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.01

Carson Strong pass complete to Toa Taua for 5 yds to the Nevad 28

3rd & 13Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.14

Carson Strong pass incomplete

4th & 13Punt+9 yds

Julian Diaz punt for 51 yds , Jordan Byrd returns for 9 yds to the SDSt 30

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.55

Chance Bell run for 2 yds to the SDSt 32

2nd & 8Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.11

Chance Bell run for 4 yds to the SDSt 36

3rd & 4Rush0 ydsPPA -0.57

Lucas Johnson run for no gain to the SDSt 36

4th & 4Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +2.35

Lucas Johnson pass complete to Jesse Matthews for 6 yds to the SDSt 42 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.15

Lucas Johnson pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Reception+19 ydsPPA +2.57

Lucas Johnson pass complete to Elijah Kothe for 19 yds to the Nevad 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.81

Lucas Johnson pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Reception+17 ydsPPA +1.31

Lucas Johnson pass complete to TJ Sullivan for 17 yds to the Nevad 22 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.13

Chance Bell run for 3 yds to the Nevad 19

2nd & 7Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.23

Chance Bell run for 2 yds to the Nevad 17

3rd & 5Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.53

Lucas Johnson pass incomplete

4th & 5Field Goal Good+35 yds

Matt Araiza 35 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Pass Reception+16 ydsPPA +1.42

Carson Strong pass complete to Justin Lockhart for 16 yds to the Nevad 41 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +1.00

Carson Strong pass complete to Toa Taua for 8 yds to the Nevad 49

2nd & 2Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.34

Carson Strong pass incomplete

3rd & 2Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.08

Carson Strong pass incomplete

4th & 2Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.93

Carson Strong pass incomplete

No play data available

Situational Analysis

Nevada

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
0%
1 play
46%
26 plays
100%
1 play
2nd
67%
3 plays
50%
6 plays
38%
8 plays
33%
3 plays
3rd
0%
2 plays
75%
4 plays
67%
3 plays
0%
4 plays
4th
50%
2 plays

San Diego State

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
100%
1 play
44%
27 plays
2nd
67%
6 plays
50%
8 plays
40%
10 plays
0%
2 plays
3rd
60%
5 plays
0%
4 plays
0%
2 plays
75%
4 plays
4th
100%
1 play
100%
1 play