Skip to main content
← Back to GamesNov 14, 2021Week 11
Conference Game

House Prediction

Model Margin

Air Force by 7.4

Home Win Probability

Colorado State 28%

Market (consensus)

Colorado State +3

Edge: Air Force -3 (4.4 pts)

fitted_v1 · Nov 14, 2021

Line Movement

No line movement to chart

Sportsbook snapshots publish once a line is posted for this game.

Team1Q2Q3Q4QFinal
Air ForceAir Force
21014035
Colorado StateColorado State
777021

Scoring Timeline

Q1Q2Q3Q401428420-1414-2114-2821-35
Colorado StateAir Force

Drive Chart

Own 20Own 4050Opp 40Opp 20CSAFCSAFCSAFCSAFCSAFCSAFCSAFAFCSAFCSAFCSAFPUNT37ydTD577ydTO35ydTD842ydPUNT36ydPUNT31ydTD771ydTD175ydTD1475ydPUNT33ydPUNT622ydMISS1260ydPUNT39ydEND531ydTD1475ydTD544ydTD1075ydTO1159ydTO3-6ydDOWNS40ydEND1560yd

Box Score

Team statistics comparing Air Force and Colorado State
StatisticAir ForceColorado State
Passing4-1113-22
Pass Yards121173
Rush Yards388135
Total Yards509308
Turnovers12
3rd Down7-176-14
Penalties4-468-67
Possession38:3621:24

Player Leaders

Player Leaders

Air Force
passing
Haaziq Daniels
4/11, 121 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
rushing
Brad Roberts
32 CAR, 151 YDS, 2 TD
receiving
Brandon Lewis
1 REC, 92 YDS, 1 TD
defense
Camby Goff
0.5 TFL, 2 PD
Colorado State
passing
Todd Centeio
13/22, 173 YDS, 2 INT
rushing
Todd Centeio
12 CAR, 55 YDS, 1 TD
receiving
Trey McBride
4 REC, 81 YDS
defense

Play-by-Play

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.11

David Bailey run for 4 yds to the ColSt 29

2nd & 6Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.27

David Bailey run for 3 yds to the ColSt 32

3rd & 3Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.51

Todd Centeio pass incomplete

4th & 3Punt0 yds

Ryan Stonehouse punt for 45 yds

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.27

Haaziq Daniels run for 3 yds to the AFA 26

2nd & 7Rush0 ydsPPA -0.51

Dane Kinamon run for no gain to the AFA 26

3rd & 7Rush+56 ydsPPA +4.40

DeAndre Hughes run for 56 yds to the ColSt 18 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.19

Haaziq Daniels run for 2 yds to the ColSt 16

2nd & 8Rushing Touchdown+16 ydsPPA +2.79

John Lee Eldridge III run for 16 yds for a TD, (Matthew Dapore KICK)

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.45

David Bailey run for 2 yds to the ColSt 27

2nd & 8Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.21

David Bailey run for 3 yds to the ColSt 30

3rd & 5Pass Interception Return0 ydsPPA -0.26

Todd Centeio pass intercepted Milton Bugg III return for no gain to the ColSt 42

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.10

Brad Roberts run for 4 yds to the ColSt 38

2nd & 6Rush+10 ydsPPA +0.63

Brad Roberts run for 10 yds to the ColSt 28 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.50

Brad Roberts run for 8 yds to the ColSt 20

2nd & 2Rush+5 ydsPPA -0.29

Brad Roberts run for 5 yds to the ColSt 15 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.07

Brad Roberts run for 5 yds to the ColSt 10

2nd & 5Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.20

Brad Roberts run for 2 yds to the ColSt 8

3rd & 3Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.19

Haaziq Daniels run for 2 yds to the ColSt 6

4th & 1Rushing Touchdown+6 ydsPPA +2.87

Brad Roberts run for 6 yds for a TD, (Matthew Dapore KICK)

0th & 0Kickoff Return (Offense)+22 yds

Brice Honaker kickoff for 65 yds , Thomas Pannunzio return for 22 yds to the ColSt 22

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.10

David Bailey run for 4 yds to the ColSt 26

2nd & 6Penalty-5 yds

COLORADO ST Penalty, False Start (Dequan Jackson) to the ColSt 21

2nd & 11Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +0.51

Todd Centeio pass complete to Trey McBride for 9 yds to the ColSt 30

3rd & 2Rush-2 ydsPPA -0.65

David Bailey run for a loss of 2 yards to the ColSt 28

4th & 4Punt0 yds

Ryan Stonehouse punt for 72 yds for a touchback

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.36

Brad Roberts run for 2 yds to the AFA 22

2nd & 8Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.42

DeAndre Hughes run for a loss of 1 yard to the AFA 21

3rd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.14

Haaziq Daniels pass incomplete

4th & 9Punt+39 yds

Carson Bay punt for 39 yds , Dante Wright returns for a loss of 1 yard to the ColSt 29

1st & 10Pass Reception+31 ydsPPA +2.59

Todd Centeio pass complete to Trey McBride for 31 yds to the AFA 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +0.37

Todd Centeio pass complete to Dante Wright for 10 yds to the AFA 30 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.05

Todd Centeio run for 4 yds to the AFA 26

2nd & 6Rush+9 ydsPPA +0.28

Todd Centeio run for 9 yds to the AFA 17 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.34

Todd Centeio pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.21

David Bailey run for 2 yds to the AFA 15

3rd & 8Rushing Touchdown+15 ydsPPA +3.13

Todd Centeio run for 15 yds for a TD, (Cayden Camper KICK)

1st & 10Penalty-5 yds

HUGHES, DeAndre rush to the right for a gain of 5 yards to the AFA30 (HOWELL, Jack). PENALTY AFA Personal Foul on KING, Dalton enforced half the distance from the goal, 13 yards from the AFA25 to the AFA12. NO PLAY (replay the down).

1st & 22Penalty-5 yds

AIR FORCE Penalty, False Start (Dalton King) to the AFA 8

1st & 27Passing Touchdown+92 ydsPPA +7.34

Haaziq Daniels pass complete to Brandon Lewis for 92 yds for a TD, (Matthew Dapore KICK)

1st & 10Penalty0 yds

DAPORE, Matthew PAT kick attempt missed (wide right). PENALTY CSU Offsides on FLOYD, Robert enforced half the distance from the goal, 2 yards from the CSU3 to the CSU1. NO PLAY (replay the down).

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.33

A'Jon Vivens run for 6 yds to the ColSt 31

2nd & 4Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.36

Todd Centeio run for 3 yds to the ColSt 34

3rd & 1Rush+5 ydsPPA +1.25

Todd Centeio run for 5 yds to the ColSt 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +1.35

Todd Centeio run for 9 yds to the ColSt 48

2nd & 1Penalty-10 yds

COLORADO ST Penalty, Offensive Holding (Adam Korutz) to the ColSt 39

2nd & 10Pass Reception0 ydsPPA -0.73

Todd Centeio pass complete to Cameron Butler for no gain to the ColSt 39

3rd & 10Pass Reception+13 ydsPPA +3.00

Todd Centeio pass complete to Ty McCullouch for 13 yds to the AFA 48 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.80

A'Jon Vivens run for 8 yds to the AFA 40

2nd & 2Rush+5 ydsPPA -0.08

David Bailey run for 5 yds to the AFA 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+32 ydsPPA +1.51

Todd Centeio pass complete to Trey McBride for 32 yds to the AFA 3 for a 1ST down

1st & 3Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.44

David Bailey run for 2 yds to the AFA 1

2nd & 1Rush+1 yds

run for 1 yd

3rd & 1Rush0 ydsPPA -0.33

David Bailey run for no gain to the AFA 1

4th & 1Rushing Touchdown+1 ydsPPA +2.79

David Bailey run for 1 yd for a TD, (Cayden Camper KICK)

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.30

Brad Roberts run for 3 yds to the AFA 28

2nd & 7Rush0 ydsPPA -0.56

Brad Roberts run for no gain to the AFA 28

3rd & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.27

Haaziq Daniels pass incomplete

4th & 7Punt0 yds

Carson Bay punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Dante Wright at the ColSt 33

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.15

A'Jon Vivens run for 4 yds to the ColSt 37

2nd & 6Rush+9 ydsPPA +1.40

A'Jon Vivens run for 9 yds to the ColSt 46 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+14 ydsPPA +1.00

Todd Centeio pass complete to A'Jon Vivens for 14 yds to the AFA 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-2 ydsPPA -1.27

Dante Wright run for a loss of 2 yards to the AFA 42

2nd & 12Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.61

David Bailey run for 2 yds to the AFA 40

3rd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.98

Todd Centeio pass incomplete

4th & 10Penalty-5 yds

COLORADO ST Penalty, Delay Of Game (-5 Yards) to the AFA 45

4th & 15Punt0 yds

Ryan Stonehouse punt for 45 yds for a touchback

1st & 10Rush+16 ydsPPA +1.24

Dane Kinamon run for 16 yds to the AFA 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -1.21

Dane Kinamon run for a loss of 1 yard to the AFA 35

2nd & 11Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.05

Brad Roberts run for 5 yds to the AFA 40

3rd & 6Penalty+15 yds

QB Keeper DANIELS, Haaziq rush up the middle for a gain of 3 yards to the AFA43 (KAMARA, Mohamed). PENALTY CSU Personal Foul on CAMERON, Marshaun enforced 15 yards from the AFA41 to the CSU44 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY (replay the down).

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.11

Brandon Lewis run for 4 yds to the ColSt 40

2nd & 6Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.10

Brad Roberts run for 5 yds to the ColSt 35

3rd & 1Rush+2 ydsPPA +0.53

Haaziq Daniels run for 2 yds to the ColSt 33 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +0.72

Haaziq Daniels run for 9 yds to the ColSt 24

2nd & 1Rush+8 ydsPPA -0.39

Brad Roberts run for 8 yds to the ColSt 16 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.33

Brad Roberts run for no gain to the ColSt 16

2nd & 10Rush-4 ydsPPA -0.87

Brandon Lewis run for a loss of 4 yards to the ColSt 20

3rd & 14Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.85

Haaziq Daniels pass incomplete

4th & 14Field Goal Missed+37 yds

Matthew Dapore 37 yd FG MISSED

1st & 10Penalty-5 yds

COLORADO ST Penalty, False Start (Cameron Butler) to the ColSt 15

1st & 15Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +0.50

Todd Centeio pass complete to Trey McBride for 9 yds to the ColSt 24

2nd & 6Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.08

Todd Centeio pass complete to Dante Wright for 5 yds to the ColSt 29

3rd & 1Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.56

Todd Centeio pass incomplete

4th & 1Punt0 yds

Ryan Stonehouse punt for 54 yds, downed at the AFA 17

1st & 10Rush+15 ydsPPA +1.02

DeAndre Hughes run for 15 yds to the AFA 32 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.93

Haaziq Daniels pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.51

Haaziq Daniels pass incomplete

3rd & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.17

Brad Roberts run for 2 yds to the AFA 34

4th & 8Rush+14 ydsPPA +3.12

Dane Kinamon run for 14 yds to the AFA 48 for a 1ST down

0th & 8End of Half0 yds

End of 2nd Quarter

1st & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +1.25

Dane Kinamon run for 9 yds to the AFA 34

2nd & 1Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.28

Haaziq Daniels pass incomplete

3rd & 1Rush+2 ydsPPA +0.95

Brad Roberts run for 2 yds to the AFA 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-4 ydsPPA -1.60

Haaziq Daniels run for a loss of 4 yards to the AFA 32

2nd & 14Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.44

Haaziq Daniels pass complete to DeAndre Hughes for 8 yds to the AFA 40

3rd & 6Pass Reception+1 ydsPPA -0.49

Haaziq Daniels pass complete to Dane Kinamon for 1 yd to the AFA 41

4th & 5Rush+16 ydsPPA +3.44

Dane Kinamon run for 16 yds to the ColSt 43 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.11

Emmanuel Michel run for 4 yds to the ColSt 39

2nd & 6Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.54

Haaziq Daniels run for 2 yds to the ColSt 37

3rd & 4Rush0 ydsPPA -1.07

DeAndre Hughes run for no gain to the ColSt 37

4th & 4Rush+12 ydsPPA +2.37

Brandon Lewis run for 12 yds to the ColSt 25 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.35

Emmanuel Michel run for 1 yd to the ColSt 24

2nd & 9Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.06

DeAndre Hughes run for 4 yds to the ColSt 20

3rd & 5Passing Touchdown+20 ydsPPA +3.11

Haaziq Daniels pass complete to Dane Kinamon for 20 yds for a TD, (Matthew Dapore KICK)

0th & 0Kickoff Return (Offense)0 yds

kickoff for 14 yds , return for no gain to the AFA 49

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.75

David Bailey run for 1 yd to the AFA 43

2nd & 9Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.38

David Bailey run for 3 yds to the AFA 40

3rd & 6Penalty+15 yds

AIR FORCE Penalty, Roughing the Passer on JACKSON, Jordan enforced (Jordan Jackson) to the AFA 17 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.11

David Bailey run for 3 yds to the AFA 14

2nd & 7Rushing Touchdown+14 ydsPPA +2.69

David Bailey run for 14 yds for a TD, (Cayden Camper KICK)

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.09

Emmanuel Michel run for 5 yds to the AFA 30

2nd & 5Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.12

Emmanuel Michel run for 4 yds to the AFA 34

3rd & 1Rush+3 ydsPPA +1.05

Dane Kinamon run for 3 yds to the AFA 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+22 ydsPPA +1.81

DeAndre Hughes run for 22 yds to the ColSt 41 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.47

Brad Roberts run for 2 yds to the ColSt 39

2nd & 8Rush+11 ydsPPA +0.95

Brandon Lewis run for 11 yds to the ColSt 28 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.04

Brad Roberts run for 4 yds to the ColSt 24

2nd & 6Rush+11 ydsPPA +0.27

DeAndre Hughes run for 11 yds to the ColSt 13 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +0.61

Brad Roberts run for 9 yds to the ColSt 4

2nd & 1Rushing Touchdown+4 ydsPPA +1.93

Brad Roberts run for 4 yds for a TD, (Matthew Dapore KICK)

0th & 0Kickoff Return (Offense)+26 yds

Brice Honaker kickoff for 65 yds , Thomas Pannunzio return for 26 yds to the ColSt 26

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.10

A'Jon Vivens run for 5 yds to the ColSt 31

2nd & 5Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.12

Todd Centeio run for 4 yds to the ColSt 35

3rd & 1Rush+2 ydsPPA +0.98

Todd Centeio run for 2 yds to the ColSt 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +0.96

Todd Centeio pass complete to Ty McCullouch for 10 yds to the ColSt 47 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Sack0 ydsPPA -1.15

Todd Centeio sacked by Christopher Herrera and Kenny Ngaima for 0 yards to the ColSt 46

2nd & 11Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.07

Todd Centeio run for 5 yds to the AFA 49

3rd & 6Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +2.22

Todd Centeio pass complete to Dante Wright for 9 yds to the AFA 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+23 ydsPPA +0.61

Todd Centeio pass complete to Ty McCullouch for 23 yds to the AFA 17 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.19

David Bailey run for 2 yds to the AFA 15

2nd & 8Rush0 ydsPPA -0.36

Todd Centeio run for no gain to the AFA 15

3rd & 8Pass Interception Return0 ydsPPA -3.87

Todd Centeio pass intercepted, touchback. return for no gain

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.09

Brad Roberts run for 4 yds to the AFA 24

2nd & 6Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.22

Brad Roberts run for 3 yds to the AFA 27

3rd & 3Penalty-8 yds

HUGHES, DeAndre rush to the right for a gain of 8 yards to the AFA35 (PATCHAN, Scott). PENALTY AFA Personal Foul on KINAMON, Dane enforced half the distance from the goal, 14 yards from the AFA28 to the AFA14, from the the spot of the ball when the foul occurred, runner is credited with 1 yards on the play. NO PLAY (replay the down).

3rd & 16Pass Interception Return0 ydsPPA +0.34

Haaziq Daniels pass intercepted return for no gain to the AFA 19

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.36

David Bailey run for no gain to the AFA 19

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.45

Todd Centeio pass incomplete

3rd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.70

Todd Centeio pass incomplete

4th & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -2.89

Todd Centeio pass incomplete

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.78

Dane Kinamon run for 8 yds to the AFA 27

2nd & 2Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.23

Brad Roberts run for 6 yds to the AFA 33 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.15

Brad Roberts run for 4 yds to the AFA 37

2nd & 6Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.10

Brad Roberts run for 5 yds to the AFA 42

3rd & 1Rush+3 ydsPPA +1.20

Brad Roberts run for 3 yds to the AFA 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.68

Brad Roberts run for 2 yds to the AFA 47

2nd & 8Rush+8 ydsPPA +1.48

Brad Roberts run for 8 yds to the ColSt 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -1.00

Emmanuel Michel run for no gain to the ColSt 45

2nd & 10Rush+18 ydsPPA +1.73

Brad Roberts run for 18 yds to the ColSt 27 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.15

Brad Roberts run for 3 yds to the ColSt 24

2nd & 7Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.07

Brad Roberts run for 5 yds to the ColSt 19

3rd & 2Rush+4 ydsPPA +0.27

Brad Roberts run for 4 yds to the ColSt 15 for a 1ST down

Situational Analysis

Air Force

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
34%
29 plays
100%
1 play
2nd
40%
5 plays
50%
8 plays
45%
11 plays
100%
2 plays
3rd
83%
6 plays
33%
3 plays
25%
4 plays
50%
2 plays
4th
100%
1 play
100%
2 plays
100%
1 play

Colorado State

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
0%
1 play
45%
22 plays
100%
1 play
2nd
0%
1 play
50%
6 plays
14%
7 plays
67%
3 plays
3rd
33%
6 plays
50%
2 plays
40%
5 plays
4th
100%
1 play
0%
1 play