Skip to main content
← Back to GamesOct 23, 2021Week 8
Conference Game

House Prediction

Model Margin

Air Force by 6.8

Home Win Probability

Air Force 68%

Market (consensus)

Air Force -3

Edge: Air Force -3 (3.8 pts)

fitted_v1 · Oct 23, 2021

Line Movement

No line movement to chart

Sportsbook snapshots publish once a line is posted for this game.

Team1Q2Q3Q4QFinal
San Diego StateSan Diego State
3107020
Air ForceAir Force
007714

Scoring Timeline

Q1Q2Q3Q4014280-30-100-130-207-2014-20
Air ForceSan Diego State

Drive Chart

Own 20Own 4050Opp 40Opp 20AFSDSAFSDSAFSDSAFSDSAFSDSAFSDSAFSDSAFSDSAFSDSAFSDSTO31ydFG44ydPUNT833ydPUNT36ydPUNT36ydPUNT38ydDOWNS632ydTD1242ydTO521ydFG712ydEND34ydTD775ydPUNT613ydPUNT3-2ydTD1157ydPUNT837ydTD1589ydPUNT37ydPUNT3-5ydEND414yd

Box Score

Team statistics comparing San Diego State and Air Force
StatisticSan Diego StateAir Force
Passing11-135-15
Pass Yards7267
Rush Yards157192
Total Yards229259
Turnovers02
3rd Down5-134-16
Penalties10-613-28
Possession31:1528:45

Player Leaders

Player Leaders

San Diego State
passing
Lucas Johnson
11/13, 72 YDS
rushing
Chance Bell
8 CAR, 50 YDS, 1 TD
receiving
Elijah Kothe
3 REC, 25 YDS
defense
Air Force
passing
Warren Bryan
3/7, 58 YDS, 1 TD
rushing
Haaziq Daniels
9 CAR, 50 YDS
receiving
Jake Spiewak
1 REC, 31 YDS
defense

Play-by-Play

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.59

Micah Davis run for 1 yd to the AFA 26

2nd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.41

Haaziq Daniels pass incomplete to Micah Davis

3rd & 9Interception0 ydsPPA +0.07

Haaziq Daniels pass intercepted

1st & 9Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.21

Kaegun Williams run for 6 yds to the AFA 3

2nd & 3Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.24

Kaegun Williams run for 2 yds to the AFA 1

3rd & 1Rush+4 yds

Kaegun Williams run for 4 yds to the AFA 5

4th & 5Field Goal Good+22 yds

Matt Araiza 22 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.09

Brad Roberts run for 5 yds to the AFA 30

2nd & 5Penalty-5 yds

PENALTY SDS Offside (Thomas,Cameron) 5 yards from AF 30 to AF 35, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.41

Brandon Lewis run for 3 yds to the AFA 38

2nd & 7Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.14

Brad Roberts run for 4 yds to the AFA 42

3rd & 3Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.52

Haaziq Daniels run for 2 yds to the AFA 44

4th & 1Rush+8 ydsPPA +2.63

Omar Fattah run for 8 yds to the SDSt 48 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -1.07

Omar Fattah run for no gain to the SDSt 48

2nd & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.40

Micah Davis run for 3 yds to the SDSt 45

3rd & 7Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.39

Haaziq Daniels run for 3 yds to the SDSt 42

4th & 4Punt0 yds

Carson Bay punt for 41 yds

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.20

Kaegun Williams run for 1 yd to the SDSt 2

2nd & 9Penalty0 yds

PENALTY SDS False Start (Rudolph,Jay) 1 yard from SDS02 to SDS01. NO PLAY.

2nd & 10Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.07

Lucas Johnson pass complete to Elijah Kothe for 6 yds to the SDSt 7

3rd & 4Pass Reception0 ydsPPA -0.14

Lucas Johnson pass complete to Jesse Matthews for no gain to the SDSt 7

4th & 4Punt0 yds

Matt Araiza punt for 81 yds

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.25

Haaziq Daniels run for 2 yds to the AFA 14

2nd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.24

Haaziq Daniels pass incomplete to Micah Davis

3rd & 8Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.02

DeAndre Hughes run for 4 yds to the AFA 18

4th & 4Punt0 yds

Carson Bay punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Jordan Byrd at the SDSt 40

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.43

Chance Bell run for 3 yds to the SDSt 43

2nd & 7Pass Reception0 ydsPPA -1.01

Lucas Johnson pass complete to Daniel Bellinger for no gain to the SDSt 43

3rd & 7Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.06

Lucas Johnson pass complete to Jesse Matthews for 5 yds to the SDSt 48

4th & 2Punt0 yds

Matt Araiza punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Micah Davis at the AFA 10

1st & 10Rush+14 ydsPPA +0.65

Haaziq Daniels run for 14 yds to the AFA 24 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Fumble Recovery (Own)+11 ydsPPA +0.90

Haaziq Daniels run for 11 yds to the AFA 35 Haaziq Daniels fumbled, forced by Dallas Branch, recovered by AFA Jake Spiewak for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.83

Brad Roberts run for 1 yd to the AFA 36

2nd & 9Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.44

Brandon Lewis run for 2 yds to the AFA 38

3rd & 7Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.21

Dane Kinamon run for 6 yds to the AFA 44

4th & 1Rush+2 ydsPPA +2.13

Haaziq Daniels run for 2 yds to the AFA 42

2nd & 2Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.19

Jordan Byrd run for 4 yds to the AFA 30 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.56

Lucas Johnson pass incomplete to Jesse Matthews

2nd & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.32

Kaegun Williams run for 7 yds to the AFA 23

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.67

Jordan Byrd run for 8 yds to the AFA 34

3rd & 3Penalty+5 yds

PENALTY SDS False Start (Bellinger,Daniel) 5 yards from AF 23 to AF 28. NO PLAY.

3rd & 8Pass Reception+13 ydsPPA +1.22

Lucas Johnson pass complete to Elijah Kothe for 13 yds to the AFA 15 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.32

Chance Bell run for no gain to the AFA 15

2nd & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.19

Lucas Johnson run for 7 yds to the AFA 8

3rd & 3Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.19

Chance Bell run for 2 yds to the AFA 6

4th & 1Rush+2 ydsPPA +1.19

Chance Bell run for 2 yds to the AFA 4 for a 1ST down

1st & 4Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.65

Lucas Johnson pass incomplete to Tyrell Shavers

2nd & 4Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.12

Jordan Byrd run for 3 yds to the AFA 1

3rd & 1Rushing Touchdown+1 ydsPPA +2.45

Kaegun Williams run for 1 yd for a TD (Matt Araiza KICK)

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.11

Dane Kinamon run for 4 yds to the AFA 29

2nd & 6Penalty-5 yds

PENALTY SDS Offside (Sims,Nassir) 5 yards from AF 29 to AF 34. NO PLAY.

2nd & 1Rush+11 ydsPPA +0.55

Brad Roberts run for 11 yds to the AFA 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.42

Brad Roberts run for 3 yds to the AFA 48

2nd & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.11

Haaziq Daniels pass incomplete to Caden Blum

3rd & 7Fumble Recovery (Own)+2 ydsPPA -0.50

Haaziq Daniels pass complete to DeAndre Hughes for 2 yds DeAndre Hughes fumbled, forced by Trenton Thompson, recovered by SDSt Noah Avinger

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.34

Jordan Byrd run for 3 yds to the AFA 43

2nd & 7Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.32

Lucas Johnson pass complete to Tyrell Shavers for 6 yds to the AFA 37

3rd & 1Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.78

Jordan Byrd run for 8 yds to the AFA 29 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.17

Lucas Johnson pass complete to BJ Busbee for 3 yds to the AFA 26

2nd & 7Penalty+10 yds

Johnson,Lucas pass incomplete to Shavers,Tyrell PENALTY SDS Holding (Bellinger,Daniel) 10 yards from AF 26 to AF 36. NO PLAY.

2nd & 17Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.16

Chance Bell run for 4 yds to the AFA 32

3rd & 13Penalty+5 yds

PENALTY SDS False Start (Uluave,Alama) 5 yards from AF 32 to AF 37. NO PLAY.

3rd & 18Penalty+5 yds

PENALTY SDS False Start (Crenshaw-Dickson,Brandon) 5 yards from AF 37 to AF 42. NO PLAY.

3rd & 23Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.49

Kaegun Williams run for 8 yds to the AFA 34

4th & 15Field Goal Good+51 yds

Matt Araiza 51 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.45

Brad Roberts run for 2 yds to the AFA 27

2nd & 8Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.40

Micah Davis run for 1 yd to the AFA 28

3rd & 7Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.22

Brad Roberts run for 1 yd to the AFA 29

0th & 7End of Half0 yds

End of 2nd Quarter

1st & 10Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +0.84

Lucas Johnson pass complete to Jesse Matthews for 10 yds to the SDSt 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.63

Kaegun Williams run for 2 yds to the SDSt 37

2nd & 8Pass Reception+20 ydsPPA +2.52

Lucas Johnson pass complete to Jordan Byrd for 20 yds to the AFA 43 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.29

Jordan Byrd run for 6 yds to the AFA 37

2nd & 4Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.51

Greg Bell run for 2 yds to the AFA 35

3rd & 2Rush+32 ydsPPA +2.11

Chance Bell run for 32 yds to the AFA 3 for a 1ST down

1st & 3Rushing Touchdown+3 ydsPPA +1.46

Chance Bell run for 3 yds for a TD (Matt Araiza KICK)

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.45

Emmanuel Michel run for 2 yds to the AFA 23

2nd & 12Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.25

Haaziq Daniels pass incomplete to Brandon Lewis

3rd & 12Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +0.41

Haaziq Daniels pass complete to Brandon Lewis for 11 yds to the AFA 34

4th & 1Penalty-5 yds

PENALTY SDS Offside (Banks,Keshawn) 5 yards from AF 34 to AF 39, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.

1st & 10Penalty-15 yds

Fattah,Omar rush for 2 yards gain to the AF 41 (Tavai,Jonah) PENALTY AF Personal Foul (Smalley,Everett) 15 yards from AF 39 to AF 24. NO PLAY.

1st & 25Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.13

Haaziq Daniels run for 7 yds to the AFA 31

2nd & 18Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.19

Haaziq Daniels run for 7 yds to the AFA 38

3rd & 11Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.33

Haaziq Daniels pass incomplete to Micah Davis

4th & 11Punt0 yds

Carson Bay punt for 35 yds

1st & 10Sack-11 ydsPPA -1.37

Lucas Johnson sacked by Jordan Jackson for a loss of 11 yards to the SDSt 16

2nd & 21Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.01

Greg Bell run for 4 yds to the SDSt 20

3rd & 17Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.01

Lucas Johnson run for 5 yds to the SDSt 25

4th & 12Punt+20 yds

Matt Araiza punt for 67 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the AFA 43 , Micah Davis returns for 20 yds to the AFA 45 AIR FORCE Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the AFA 43

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.69

Omar Fattah run for 2 yds to the AFA 45

2nd & 8Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.35

Haaziq Daniels run for 6 yds to the SDSt 49

3rd & 2Rush+6 ydsPPA +1.45

Omar Fattah run for 6 yds to the SDSt 43 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.31

Warren Bryan run for 3 yds to the SDSt 40

2nd & 7Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.79

Omar Fattah run for 8 yds to the SDSt 32 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +0.71

Micah Davis run for 9 yds to the SDSt 23

2nd & 1Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.44

Emmanuel Michel run for 4 yds to the SDSt 19 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.36

Emmanuel Michel run for no gain to the SDSt 19

2nd & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.33

Micah Davis run for 1 yd to the SDSt 18

3rd & 9Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.04

Warren Bryan run for 5 yds to the SDSt 13

4th & 4Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -3.73

Warren Bryan pass incomplete (Matthew Dapore KICK)

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.10

Chance Bell run for 4 yds to the SDSt 27

2nd & 6Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.09

Greg Bell run for 5 yds to the SDSt 32

3rd & 1Rush+5 ydsPPA +1.18

Greg Bell run for 5 yds to the SDSt 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.40

Lucas Johnson pass complete to Elijah Kothe for 6 yds to the SDSt 43

2nd & 4Rush+11 ydsPPA +1.10

Greg Bell run for 11 yds to the AFA 46 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.12

Greg Bell run for 4 yds to the AFA 42

2nd & 6Penalty+5 yds

PENALTY SDS False Start (Martinez,Chris) 5 yards from AF 42 to AF 47. NO PLAY.

2nd & 11Rush+9 ydsPPA +1.01

Greg Bell run for 9 yds to the AFA 38

3rd & 2Rush+2 ydsPPA +0.78

Greg Bell run for 2 yds to the AFA 40

4th & 4Punt0 yds

Matt Araiza punt for 29 yds, fair catch by Dane Kinamon at the AFA 11

1st & 10Rush+16 ydsPPA +0.83

Zachary Larrier run for 16 yds to the AFA 27 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.77

Warren Bryan pass incomplete to Brandon Lewis

2nd & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.17

Omar Fattah run for 3 yds to the AFA 30

3rd & 7Rush+9 ydsPPA +2.01

Warren Bryan run for 9 yds to the AFA 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+31 ydsPPA +2.04

Warren Bryan pass complete to Jake Spiewak for 31 yds to the SDSt 30 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.30

Omar Fattah run for 2 yds to the SDSt 28

2nd & 8Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.33

Brandon Lewis run for 7 yds to the SDSt 21

3rd & 1Rush+3 ydsPPA +0.19

Warren Bryan run for 3 yds to the SDSt 18 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.27

Emmanuel Michel run for 1 yd to the SDSt 19

2nd & 11Sack-2 ydsPPA -0.73

Warren Bryan sacked by Cameron Thomas for a loss of 2 yards to the SDSt 21

3rd & 13Pass Reception+14 ydsPPA +1.56

Warren Bryan pass complete to Dane Kinamon for 14 yds to the SDSt 7 for a 1ST down

1st & 7Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.14

Warren Bryan run for 3 yds to the SDSt 4

2nd & 4Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.29

Omar Fattah run for 1 yd to the SDSt 3

3rd & 3Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.29

Warren Bryan pass incomplete to Jake Spiewak

4th & 3Rushing Touchdown+3 ydsPPA +2.92

Dane Kinamon run for 3 yds for a TD (Matthew Dapore KICK)

1st & 10Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.30

Lucas Johnson pass complete to Jesse Matthews for 3 yds to the SDSt 28

2nd & 7Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.47

Greg Bell run for 1 yd to the SDSt 29

3rd & 6Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.14

Greg Bell run for 3 yds to the SDSt 32

4th & 3Punt0 yds

Matt Araiza punt for 55 yds, fair catch by Jake Spiewak at the AFA 13

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.40

Warren Bryan pass incomplete to Brandon Lewis

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.18

Warren Bryan pass incomplete to Jake Spiewak

3rd & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.03

Warren Bryan run for 3 yds to the AFA 16

4th & 7Penalty-8 yds

Bryan,Warren pass complete to Lewis,Brandon for 14 yards to the AF 30 (Lakalaka,Seyddrick) PENALTY AF Chop Block 8 yards from AF 16 to AF 08. NO PLAY.

4th & 15Punt0 yds

Carson Bay punt for 41 yds

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.62

Kaegun Williams run for 2 yds to the AFA 47

2nd & 8Rush+9 ydsPPA +1.28

Kaegun Williams run for 9 yds to the AFA 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.98

run for a loss of 1 yard to the AFA 39

2nd & 11Rush-1 ydsPPA -1.23

run for a loss of 1 yard to the AFA 40

3rd & 12Penalty+5 yds

PENALTY AF Offside (Brockman,Elijah) 5 yards from AF 40 to AF 35. NO PLAY.

Situational Analysis

San Diego State

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
100%
1 play
0%
1 play
28%
18 plays
2nd
0%
2 plays
50%
4 plays
75%
8 plays
25%
4 plays
3rd
83%
6 plays
0%
2 plays
100%
2 plays
100%
2 plays
4th
100%
1 play

Air Force

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
26%
23 plays
100%
1 play
2nd
50%
2 plays
0%
1 play
23%
13 plays
33%
3 plays
3rd
50%
4 plays
44%
9 plays
67%
3 plays
4th
100%
3 plays
0%
1 play