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← Back to GamesOct 17, 2021Week 7
Conference Game

House Prediction

Model Margin

Boise State by 4.7

Home Win Probability

Boise State 59%

Market (consensus)

Boise State -3

Edge: Boise State -3 (1.7 pts)

fitted_v1 · Oct 17, 2021

Line Movement

No line movement to chart

Sportsbook snapshots publish once a line is posted for this game.

Team1Q2Q3Q4QFinal
Air ForceAir Force
7140324
Boise StateBoise State
770317

Scoring Timeline

Q1Q2Q3Q4014287-07-77-1414-2117-24
Boise StateAir Force

Drive Chart

Own 20Own 4050Opp 40Opp 20BSAFBSAFBSAFBSAFBSAFBSAFBSAFBSAFAFBSBSAFTD1175ydTD1475ydPUNT35ydTD1076ydTD1080ydTD875ydPUNT50ydPUNT517ydEND2-3ydPUNT33ydPUNT32ydPUNT33ydDOWNS1163ydMISS1584ydPUNT519ydPUNT722ydFG46ydFG1153ydTO10ydEND1-1yd

Box Score

Team statistics comparing Air Force and Boise State
StatisticAir ForceBoise State
Passing1-523-36
Pass Yards59259
Rush Yards30778
Total Yards366337
Turnovers12
3rd Down7-157-13
Penalties4-438-75
Possession36:5923:01

Player Leaders

Player Leaders

Air Force
passing
Haaziq Daniels
1/5, 59 YDS
rushing
Brad Roberts
28 CAR, 138 YDS, 2 TD
receiving
Brandon Lewis
1 REC, 59 YDS
defense
Boise State
passing
Hank Bachmeier
23/36, 259 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
rushing
Andrew Van Buren
15 CAR, 58 YDS, 1 TD
receiving
Stefan Cobbs
6 REC, 83 YDS, 1 TD
defense

Play-by-Play

1st & 10Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.33

Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Stefan Cobbs for 6 yds to the BoiSt 31

2nd & 4Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.89

Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Octavius Evans for 8 yds to the BoiSt 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.17

Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Andrew Van Buren for 4 yds to the BoiSt 43

2nd & 6Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.66

Andrew Van Buren run for 2 yds to the BoiSt 45

3rd & 4Rush+6 ydsPPA +1.92

Hank Bachmeier run for 6 yds to the AFA 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.10

Hank Bachmeier pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.40

Andrew Van Buren run for 3 yds to the AFA 46

3rd & 7Pass Reception+39 ydsPPA +3.06

Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Stefan Cobbs for 39 yds to the AFA 7 for a 1ST down

1st & 7Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.33

run for 1 yd to the AFA 6

2nd & 6Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.10

Andrew Van Buren run for 3 yds to the AFA 3

3rd & 3Penalty-5 yds

BOISE ST Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the AFA 8

3rd & 8Passing Touchdown+8 ydsPPA +2.95

Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Stefan Cobbs for 8 yds for a TD (Jonah Dalmas KICK)

1st & 10Rush+15 ydsPPA +1.32

Micah Davis run for 15 yds to the AFA 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.17

Brad Roberts run for 4 yds to the AFA 44

2nd & 6Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.43

Brandon Lewis run for 3 yds to the AFA 47

3rd & 3Rush+4 ydsPPA +1.59

Brad Roberts run for 4 yds to the BoiSt 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+15 ydsPPA +0.83

Micah Davis run for 15 yds to the BoiSt 34 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.50

Brad Roberts run for 1 yd to the BoiSt 33

2nd & 9Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.06

Micah Davis run for 5 yds to the BoiSt 28

3rd & 4Rush+9 ydsPPA +0.77

Haaziq Daniels run for 9 yds to the BoiSt 19 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.36

Haaziq Daniels pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.31

Haaziq Daniels run for 8 yds to the BoiSt 11

3rd & 2Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.31

Brad Roberts run for 1 yd to the BoiSt 10

4th & 1Rush+2 ydsPPA +0.65

Haaziq Daniels run for 2 yds to the BoiSt 8 for a 1ST down

1st & 8Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.01

Brad Roberts run for 4 yds to the BoiSt 4

2nd & 4Rushing Touchdown+4 ydsPPA +2.33

Brad Roberts run for 4 yds for a TD (Anthony Rodriguez KICK)

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.70

Hank Bachmeier pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.04

Andrew Van Buren run for 5 yds to the BoiSt 30

3rd & 5Rush0 ydsPPA -0.37

Hank Bachmeier run for no gain to the BoiSt 30

4th & 5Punt0 yds

Joel Velazquez punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Micah Davis at the AFA 24

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.11

Haaziq Daniels run for 4 yds to the AFA 28

2nd & 6Rush+9 ydsPPA +1.20

Brad Roberts run for 9 yds to the AFA 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty+15 yds

BOISE ST Penalty, Face mask (15 yards) (Kekaula Kaniho) to the BoiSt 44 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.09

Emmanuel Michel run for 5 yds to the BoiSt 39

2nd & 5Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.99

Haaziq Daniels pass incomplete

3rd & 5Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.16

Micah Davis run for 4 yds to the BoiSt 35

4th & 1Rush+2 ydsPPA +1.56

Brad Roberts run for 2 yds to the BoiSt 33 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.38

Haaziq Daniels run for 7 yds to the BoiSt 26

2nd & 3Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.50

Omar Fattah run for 1 yd to the BoiSt 25

3rd & 2Rushing Touchdown+25 ydsPPA +3.03

Haaziq Daniels run for 25 yds for a TD (Anthony Rodriguez KICK)

1st & 10Pass Reception+22 ydsPPA +1.82

Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Khalil Shakir for 22 yds to the BoiSt 42 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -1.15

Taequan Tyler run for no gain to the BoiSt 42

2nd & 10Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +2.03

Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Octavius Evans for 10 yds to the AFA 48 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.60

Taequan Tyler run for 2 yds to the AFA 46

2nd & 8Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +1.24

Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Billy Bowens for 9 yds to the AFA 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+14 ydsPPA +0.39

Taequan Tyler run for 14 yds to the AFA 23 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception0 ydsPPA -0.42

Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Stefan Cobbs for no gain to the AFA 23

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.55

Hank Bachmeier pass incomplete

3rd & 10Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +1.11

Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Khalil Shakir for 12 yds to the AFA 11 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rushing Touchdown+11 ydsPPA +2.52

Andrew Van Buren run for 11 yds for a TD (Jonah Dalmas KICK)

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.45

Brad Roberts run for 2 yds to the AFA 27

2nd & 8Rush0 ydsPPA -0.48

Haaziq Daniels run for no gain to the AFA 27

3rd & 8Pass Reception+59 ydsPPA +4.46

Haaziq Daniels pass complete to Brandon Lewis for 59 yds to the BoiSt 14 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.07

Brad Roberts run for 5 yds to the BoiSt 9

2nd & 5Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.11

Haaziq Daniels run for 3 yds to the BoiSt 6

3rd & 2Rush+3 ydsPPA +1.12

Brad Roberts run for 3 yds to the BoiSt 3 for a 1ST down

1st & 3Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.44

Haaziq Daniels run for 2 yds to the BoiSt 1

2nd & 1Rushing Touchdown+1 ydsPPA +1.90

Brad Roberts run for 1 yd for a TD (Anthony Rodriguez KICK)

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.40

Andrew Van Buren run for 6 yds to the BoiSt 43

2nd & 4Pass Reception+13 ydsPPA +1.24

Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Khalil Shakir for 13 yds to the AFA 44 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.97

Hank Bachmeier pass incomplete

2nd & 10Penalty-10 yds

BACHMEIER, Hank pass to the right incomplete intended for SHAKIR, Khalil thrown to the AFA2. PENALTY BSU Holding on STETZ, Jake enforced 10 yards from the AFA44 to the BSU46 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

2nd & 20Penalty-10 yds

BACHMEIER, Hank pass to the right complete for 14 yards to THOMAS, CT caught at the AFA40 and advanced to the AFA40 (MOCK, Alec). PENALTY BSU Holding on OSUJI, Uzo enforced 10 yards from the BSU46 to the BSU36 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

2nd & 30Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.12

Hank Bachmeier pass incomplete

3rd & 30Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.04

Andrew Van Buren run for 1 yd to the BoiSt 37

4th & 29Punt0 yds

Joel Velazquez punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Micah Davis at the AFA 20

1st & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +1.11

Haaziq Daniels run for 9 yds to the AFA 29

2nd & 1Rush+12 ydsPPA +0.61

Micah Davis run for 12 yds to the AFA 41 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.68

Brad Roberts run for 2 yds to the AFA 43

2nd & 8Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.39

Brad Roberts run for 3 yds to the AFA 46

3rd & 5Sack0 ydsPPA -0.82

Haaziq Daniels sacked by Scott Matlock for 0 yards to the AFA 43

4th & 8Penalty-6 yds

BEIN, Charles punt 46 yards to the BSU11 downed. PENALTY Before the snap, AFA Illegal Formation enforced 6 yards from the AFA43 to the AFA37. NO PLAY (replay the down).

4th & 14Punt+13 yds

Charles Bein punt for 39 yds , Khalil Shakir returns for 13 yds to the BoiSt 37

1st & 10Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.16

Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Andrew Van Buren for 4 yds to the BoiSt 41

2nd & 6Penalty-15 yds

BACHMEIER, Hank pass up the middle complete for 12 yards to COBBS, Stefan caught at the AFA48 and advanced to the AFA47 (TAYLOR, Trey). PENALTY BSU Pass Interference on SMITH, Riley enforced 15 yards to the BSU26 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

2nd & 21Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.16

Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Stefan Cobbs for 8 yds to the BoiSt 34

0th & 21End of Half0 yds

End of 2nd Quarter

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.17

Haaziq Daniels run for 4 yds to the AFA 43

2nd & 6Rush-1 ydsPPA -1.25

Dane Kinamon run for a loss of 1 yard to the AFA 42

3rd & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.59

Haaziq Daniels pass incomplete

4th & 7Punt+41 yds

Charles Bein punt for 41 yds BOISE ST Penalty, Running Into the kicker ( Yards) declined

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.31

Andrew Van Buren run for 2 yds to the BoiSt 19

2nd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.31

Hank Bachmeier pass incomplete

3rd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.14

Hank Bachmeier pass incomplete

4th & 8Punt0 yds

Joel Velazquez punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Micah Davis at the AFA 33

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.39

Haaziq Daniels run for 3 yds to the AFA 36

2nd & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.80

Haaziq Daniels pass incomplete

3rd & 7Rush0 ydsPPA -0.43

Haaziq Daniels run for no gain to the AFA 36

4th & 7Punt0 yds

Charles Bein punt for 30 yds, downed at the BoiSt 34

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.70

Khalil Shakir run for 7 yds to the BoiSt 41

2nd & 3Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.75

Andrew Van Buren run for 2 yds to the BoiSt 43

3rd & 1Rush+4 ydsPPA +1.29

Andrew Van Buren run for 4 yds to the BoiSt 47 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty-5 yds

BACHMEIER, Hank pass up the middle complete for 43 yards to SHAKIR, Khalil caught at the AFA39 and advanced to the AFA10 (MEEKS, Demonte). PENALTY BSU Ineligible Receiver Downfield on Pass on FARRAR, Will enforced 5 yards from the BSU47 to the BSU42 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

1st & 15Penalty-5 yds

BOISE ST Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the BoiSt 37

1st & 20Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.21

Andrew Van Buren run for 6 yds to the BoiSt 43

2nd & 14Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +1.41

Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Tyneil Hopper for 11 yds to the AFA 46

3rd & 3Rush+5 ydsPPA +1.43

Andrew Van Buren run for 5 yds to the AFA 41 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+28 ydsPPA +0.70

Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Khalil Shakir for 28 yds to the AFA 13 for a 1ST down AIR FORCE Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (Camby Goff) to the AFA 6 for a 1ST down

1st & 6Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.39

Andrew Van Buren run for 1 yd to the AFA 5

2nd & 5Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.32

Hank Bachmeier pass incomplete

3rd & 5Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.09

Andrew Van Buren run for 3 yds to the AFA 2

4th & 2Sack0 ydsPPA -4.15

Hank Bachmeier sacked by Alec Mock for 0 yards to the AFA 3

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.03

Brad Roberts run for 4 yds to the AFA 7

2nd & 6Rush+20 ydsPPA +1.05

Brad Roberts run for 20 yds to the AFA 27 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.32

Brad Roberts run for 3 yds to the AFA 30

2nd & 7Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.26

Brad Roberts run for 3 yds to the AFA 33

3rd & 4Rush+7 ydsPPA +1.76

Haaziq Daniels run for 7 yds to the AFA 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+21 ydsPPA +1.62

Brad Roberts run for 21 yds to the BoiSt 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.09

Brad Roberts run for 4 yds to the BoiSt 35

2nd & 6Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.44

Omar Fattah run for 6 yds to the BoiSt 29 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.50

Omar Fattah run for 8 yds to the BoiSt 21

2nd & 2Rush0 ydsPPA -0.60

Haaziq Daniels run for no gain to the BoiSt 21

3rd & 2Rush+3 ydsPPA +0.29

Brad Roberts run for 3 yds to the BoiSt 18 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.19

Haaziq Daniels run for 2 yds to the BoiSt 16

2nd & 8Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.12

Brad Roberts run for 3 yds to the BoiSt 13

3rd & 5Rush0 ydsPPA -0.43

Haaziq Daniels run for no gain to the BoiSt 13

4th & 5Field Goal Missed+30 yds

McKenly O'Neal 30 yd FG MISSED

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.56

Hank Bachmeier pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Reception+22 ydsPPA +2.38

Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Stefan Cobbs for 22 yds to the BoiSt 42 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +1.30

Hank Bachmeier run for 9 yds to the AFA 49

2nd & 1Sack0 ydsPPA -1.36

Hank Bachmeier sacked for 0 yards to the BoiSt 33

3rd & 19Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.05

Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Andrew Van Buren for 6 yds to the BoiSt 39

4th & 13Punt0 yds

Joel Velazquez punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Micah Davis at the AFA 23

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.09

Brad Roberts run for 5 yds to the AFA 28

2nd & 5Rush+12 ydsPPA +1.36

Micah Davis run for 12 yds to the AFA 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +1.02

Brad Roberts run for 8 yds to the AFA 48

2nd & 2Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.20

Brad Roberts run for 6 yds to the BoiSt 46 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty-15 yds

ROBERTS, Brad rush up the middle for a gain of 6 yards to the BSU40 (OBICHERE, Divine;NOA, Ezekiel). PENALTY AFA Unnecessary Roughness on SMALLEY, Everett enforced 15 yards from the BSU46 to the AFA39. NO PLAY (replay the down).

1st & 25Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.20

Brad Roberts run for 3 yds to the AFA 42

2nd & 22Sack0 ydsPPA -0.35

Haaziq Daniels sacked by Scott Matlock for 0 yards to the AFA 37

3rd & 27Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.10

Brad Roberts run for 8 yds to the AFA 45

4th & 19Punt0 yds

Charles Bein punt for 36 yds , returns for no gain to the BoiSt 15

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.18

Omar Fattah run for 2 yds to the BoiSt 13

2nd & 8Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.18

Haaziq Daniels run for 2 yds to the BoiSt 11

3rd & 6Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.20

Brad Roberts run for 2 yds to the BoiSt 9

4th & 4Field Goal Good+28 yds

Matthew Dapore 28 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.95

Hank Bachmeier pass complete to CT Thomas for 8 yds to the BoiSt 35

2nd & 2Pass Reception+15 ydsPPA +1.14

Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Octavius Evans for 15 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.84

Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Octavius Evans for 8 yds to the AFA 42

2nd & 2Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.13

Hank Bachmeier pass incomplete

3rd & 2Rush+4 ydsPPA +1.04

Andrew Van Buren run for 4 yds to the AFA 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.42

Hank Bachmeier pass complete to CT Thomas for 7 yds to the AFA 31

2nd & 3Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA -0.01

Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Octavius Evans for 7 yds to the AFA 24 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.03

Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Octavius Evans for 4 yds to the AFA 20

2nd & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.46

Hank Bachmeier pass incomplete

3rd & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.63

Hank Bachmeier pass incomplete

4th & 6Field Goal Good+37 yds

Jonah Dalmas 37 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Pass Interception Return0 ydsPPA -3.24

Hank Bachmeier pass intercepted Tre Bugg Iii return for no gain to the AFA 47

No play data available

Situational Analysis

Air Force

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
0%
1 play
42%
24 plays
0%
1 play
2nd
60%
5 plays
56%
9 plays
25%
8 plays
0%
1 play
3rd
80%
5 plays
33%
6 plays
33%
3 plays
100%
1 play
4th
100%
2 plays

Boise State

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
0%
1 play
46%
24 plays
100%
1 play
2nd
20%
5 plays
33%
6 plays
57%
7 plays
67%
3 plays
3rd
100%
3 plays
25%
4 plays
75%
4 plays
50%
2 plays
4th
0%
1 play