Skip to main content
← Back to GamesOct 10, 2021Week 6
Conference Game

House Prediction

Model Margin

San Diego State by 25

Home Win Probability

San Diego State 92%

Market (consensus)

San Diego State -19.5

Edge: San Diego State -19.5 (5.5 pts)

fitted_v1 · Oct 10, 2021

Line Movement

No line movement to chart

Sportsbook snapshots publish once a line is posted for this game.

Team1Q2Q3Q4QFinal
New MexicoNew Mexico
00707
San Diego StateSan Diego State
7107731

Scoring Timeline

Q1Q2Q3Q4014287-010-016-024-731-7
San Diego StateNew Mexico

Drive Chart

Own 20Own 4050Opp 40Opp 20NMSDSNMSDSNMSDSNMSDSNMSDSNMSDSSDSNMSDSNMSDSSDSNMSDSNMSDSNMSDSNMSDSPUNT32ydTD663ydPUNT30ydPUNT939ydPUNT615ydFG1048ydTO424ydDOWNS48ydPUNT3-3ydTD1066ydTO773ydEND325ydPUNT31ydPUNT38ydPUNT37ydPUNT935ydTD26ydTD560ydPUNT37ydTD666ydPUNT3-5ydPUNT34ydPUNT1036ydPUNT39ydDOWNS716ydEND28yd

Box Score

Team statistics comparing New Mexico and San Diego State
StatisticNew MexicoSan Diego State
Passing13-2712-25
Pass Yards127133
Rush Yards66203
Total Yards193336
Turnovers21
3rd Down3-163-11
Penalties9-865-37
Possession28:5931:01

Player Leaders

Player Leaders

New Mexico
passing
Terry Wilson
13/25, 127 YDS, 1 INT
rushing
Aaron Dumas
11 CAR, 77 YDS
receiving
Luke Wysong
4 REC, 51 YDS
defense
San Diego State
passing
Jordon Brookshire
11/24, 130 YDS
rushing
Greg Bell
21 CAR, 111 YDS, 1 TD
receiving
Tyrell Shavers
2 REC, 39 YDS
defense

Play-by-Play

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.55

Trae Hall run for a loss of 1 yard to the NMex 16

2nd & 11Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.08

Terry Wilson pass complete to Andrew Erickson for 3 yds to the NMex 19

3rd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.14

Terry Wilson pass incomplete

4th & 8Punt+3 yds

Aaron Rodriguez punt for 47 yds , Jordan Byrd returns for 3 yds to the SDSt 37

1st & 10Rush+40 ydsPPA +2.39

Greg Bell run for 40 yds to the NMex 23 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.03

Greg Bell run for 4 yds to the NMex 19

2nd & 6Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.17

Greg Bell run for 7 yds to the NMex 12 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.30

Jordon Brookshire pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+11 ydsPPA +1.89

Greg Bell run for 11 yds to the NMex 1 for a 1ST down

1st & 1Rushing Touchdown+1 ydsPPA +0.94

Greg Bell run for 1 yd for a TD (Matt Araiza KICK)

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.30

Aaron Dumas run for 3 yds to the NMex 28

2nd & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.56

Terry Wilson pass incomplete

3rd & 7Sack0 ydsPPA -0.27

Terry Wilson sacked by Cameron Thomas and Keshawn Banks for 0 yards to the NMex 25

4th & 10Punt0 yds

Aaron Rodriguez punt for 50 yds, fair catch by Jordan Byrd at the SDSt 25

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.70

Jordon Brookshire pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.31

Jordon Brookshire pass complete to Greg Bell for 7 yds to the SDSt 32

3rd & 3Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +1.51

Jordon Brookshire pass complete to Jesse Matthews for 6 yds to the SDSt 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.09

Jordon Brookshire pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.13

Kaegun Williams run for 4 yds to the SDSt 42

3rd & 6Rush+22 ydsPPA +3.16

Jordon Brookshire run for 22 yds to the NMex 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.72

Greg Bell run for no gain to the NMex 36

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.94

Jordon Brookshire pass incomplete

3rd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.02

Jordon Brookshire pass incomplete

4th & 10Punt0 yds

Matt Araiza punt for 36 yds for a touchback

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.09

Aaron Dumas run for 5 yds to the NMex 25

2nd & 5Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.25

Terry Wilson pass complete to Trae Hall for 3 yds to the NMex 28

3rd & 2Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA +0.95

Terry Wilson pass complete to Connor Witthoft for 3 yds to the NMex 31 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.57

Aaron Dumas run for 2 yds to the NMex 33

2nd & 8Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.42

Aaron Dumas run for 2 yds to the NMex 35

3rd & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.44

Terry Wilson pass incomplete

4th & 6Punt0 yds

Aaron Rodriguez punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Jordan Byrd at the SDSt 29

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.69

Greg Bell run for 1 yd to the SDSt 30

2nd & 9Penalty+15 yds

NEW MEXICO Penalty, Face mask (15 yards) (Ronald Wilson) to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.11

Jordon Brookshire pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+12 ydsPPA +1.86

Greg Bell run for 12 yds to the NMex 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.78

Jordon Brookshire pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush-3 ydsPPA -1.64

Chance Bell run for a loss of 3 yards to the NMex 41

3rd & 13Penalty+15 yds

BROOKSHIRE, Jordon pass to the right incomplete intended for KOTHE, Elijah thrown to the UNM0. PENALTY UNM Pass Interference on SANDERS, Devin enforced 15 yards to the UNM26 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.47

Jordon Brookshire pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.05

Greg Bell run for 5 yds to the NMex 21

3rd & 5Rush-2 ydsPPA -0.99

Greg Bell run for a loss of 2 yards to the NMex 23

4th & 7Field Goal Good+40 yds

Matt Araiza 40 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Rush-2 ydsPPA -0.85

Aaron Dumas run for a loss of 2 yards to the NMex 22

2nd & 12Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.10

Terry Wilson pass complete to Trae Hall for 3 yds to the NMex 25

3rd & 9Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +2.04

Terry Wilson pass complete to Andrew Erickson for 12 yds to the NMex 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +1.04

Terry Wilson pass complete to Luke Wysong for 11 yds to the NMex 34

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.50

Jordan Byrd run for 1 yd to the NMex 33

2nd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.84

Jordon Brookshire pass incomplete

3rd & 9Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.45

Jordon Brookshire pass complete to Elijah Kothe for 7 yds to the NMex 26

4th & 2Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -3.17

Jordon Brookshire pass incomplete

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.61

Terry Wilson run for 1 yd to the NMex 27

2nd & 9Rush-4 ydsPPA -0.61

Terry Wilson run for a loss of 4 yards to the NMex 23

3rd & 13Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.10

Terry Wilson pass incomplete

4th & 13Punt0 yds

Aaron Rodriguez punt for 43 yds , Jordan Byrd returns for no gain to the SDSt 34

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.16

Greg Bell run for 4 yds to the SDSt 38

2nd & 6Pass Reception+17 ydsPPA +2.02

Jordon Brookshire pass complete to Daniel Bellinger for 17 yds to the NMex 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.55

Greg Bell run for 2 yds to the NMex 43

2nd & 8Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.15

Greg Bell run for 4 yds to the NMex 39

3rd & 4Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.63

Greg Bell run for 2 yds to the NMex 37

4th & 2Pass Reception+23 ydsPPA +2.25

Jordon Brookshire pass complete to Tyrell Shavers for 23 yds to the NMex 14 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.10

Greg Bell run for 3 yds to the NMex 11

2nd & 7Rush+8 ydsPPA +1.18

Greg Bell run for 8 yds to the NMex 3 for a 1ST down

1st & 3Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.44

Greg Bell run for 2 yds to the NMex 1

2nd & 1Rushing Touchdown+1 ydsPPA +1.90

Jordon Brookshire run for 1 yd for a TD

0th & 3Penalty0 yds

NEW MEXICO Penalty, Offsides (Jake Saltonstall) to the NMex 1

1st & 10Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.75

Terry Wilson pass complete to Luke Wysong for 8 yds to the NMex 26

2nd & 2Rush+14 ydsPPA +0.98

Aaron Dumas run for 14 yds to the NMex 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+16 ydsPPA +1.34

Aaron Dumas run for 16 yds to the SDSt 44 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+28 ydsPPA +0.84

Terry Wilson pass complete to Elijah Queen for 28 yds to the SDSt 16 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty-5 yds

NEW MEXICO Penalty, False Start (Elijah Queen) to the SDSt 21

1st & 15Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.38

Trae Hall pass incomplete

2nd & 15Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +0.61

Terry Wilson pass complete to Trae Hall for 12 yds to the SDSt 9

3rd & 3Pass Interception Return0 ydsPPA -4.30

Terry Wilson pass intercepted return for no gain to the SDSt 1

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.06

Kaegun Williams run for 5 yds to the SDSt 6

2nd & 5Penalty+15 yds

NEW MEXICO Penalty, Face mask (15 yards) (Langston Murray) to the SDSt 23 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.27

Kaegun Williams run for 3 yds to the SDSt 26

0th & 10End of Half0 yds

End of 2nd Quarter

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.32

Greg Bell run for no gain to the SDSt 8

2nd & 10Pass Reception-1 ydsPPA -0.16

Jordon Brookshire pass complete to Jordan Byrd for a loss of 1 yard to the SDSt 7

3rd & 11Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.05

Jordon Brookshire run for 7 yds to the SDSt 14

4th & 4Penalty-5 yds

SAN DIEGO ST Penalty, Delay Of Game (TEAM) to the SDSt 9

4th & 9Punt+9 yds

Matt Araiza punt for 64 yds , Chad Alexander returns for 9 yds to the NMex 36

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -1.21

Aaron Dumas run for a loss of 1 yard to the NMex 35

2nd & 11Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.55

Terry Wilson pass incomplete

3rd & 11Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +0.50

Terry Wilson pass complete to Andrew Erickson for 9 yds to the NMex 44

4th & 2Punt0 yds

Aaron Rodriguez punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Jordan Byrd at the SDSt 23

1st & 10Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.32

Jordon Brookshire pass complete to Kaegun Williams for 6 yds to the SDSt 29

2nd & 4Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.67

Greg Bell run for 1 yd to the SDSt 30

3rd & 3Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.46

Jordon Brookshire pass incomplete

4th & 3Punt+2 yds

Matt Araiza punt for 55 yds , Luke Wysong returns for 2 yds to the NMex 17

1st & 10Sack0 ydsPPA -0.48

Terry Wilson sacked by Caden McDonald for 0 yards to the NMex 4

2nd & 23Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.01

Bobby Cole run for 2 yds to the NMex 6

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.54

Bobby Cole run for 7 yds to the NMex 28

2nd & 3Rush0 ydsPPA -0.86

Bobby Cole run for no gain to the NMex 28

3rd & 3Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.42

Terry Wilson pass incomplete

4th & 3Penalty+5 yds

SAN DIEGO ST Penalty, Offsides (Zachary Thomas) to the NMex 33 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+26 ydsPPA +2.19

Terry Wilson pass complete to Luke Wysong for 26 yds to the SDSt 41 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-3 ydsPPA -1.53

Terry Wilson run for a loss of 3 yards to the SDSt 44

2nd & 13Rush-4 ydsPPA -1.69

Bobby Cole run for a loss of 4 yards to the SDSt 48

3rd & 17Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.49

Terry Wilson pass incomplete

4th & 17Punt0 yds

Aaron Rodriguez punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Jordan Byrd at the SDSt 9

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.21

Greg Bell run for 6 yds to the SDSt 15

2nd & 4Rushing Touchdown0 ydsPPA +6.62

Greg Bell run for no gain for a TD (Andrew Shelley KICK)

1st & 10Penalty+15 yds

NEW MEXICO Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Dion Hunter) to the NMex 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -1.00

Kaegun Williams run for no gain to the NMex 45

2nd & 10Pass Reception+16 ydsPPA +1.69

Jordon Brookshire pass complete to Tyrell Shavers for 16 yds to the NMex 29 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty+10 yds

BROOKSHIRE, Jordon pass to the right incomplete intended for KOTHE, Elijah thrown to the UNM20. PENALTY UNM Holding on HIGHTOWER, Corey enforced 10 yards from the UNM29 to the UNM19 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.46

Kaegun Williams run for 8 yds to the NMex 11

2nd & 2Rushing Touchdown+11 ydsPPA +2.15

Jordon Brookshire run for 11 yds for a TD (Matt Araiza KICK)

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.27

Bobby Cole run for 3 yds to the NMex 26

2nd & 7Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.08

Terry Wilson run for 4 yds to the NMex 30

3rd & 3Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.46

Terry Wilson pass incomplete

4th & 3Punt0 yds

Aaron Rodriguez punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Jordan Byrd at the SDSt 34

1st & 10Pass Reception+36 ydsPPA +2.52

Jordon Brookshire pass complete to BJ Busbee for 36 yds to the NMex 30 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.42

Chance Bell run for 1 yd to the NMex 29

2nd & 9Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.45

Jordon Brookshire pass complete to Daniel Bellinger for 8 yds to the NMex 21

3rd & 1Rush+4 ydsPPA +0.20

Jordon Brookshire run for 4 yds to the NMex 17 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty0 yds

BROOKSHIRE, Jordon pass up the middle incomplete intended for BELLINGER, Daniel thrown to the UNM15; QB hurried by NOBLE, Joey. PENALTY UNM Roughing the Passer on NOBLE, Joey enforced half the distance from the goal, 9 yards from the UNM17 to the UNM8 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NH]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

1st & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.36

Jordon Brookshire pass incomplete

2nd & 8Rushing Touchdown+8 ydsPPA +2.68

Chance Bell run for 8 yds for a TD (Matt Araiza KICK)

1st & 10Rush-6 ydsPPA -1.11

Terry Wilson run for a loss of 6 yards to the NMex 19

2nd & 16Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.13

Terry Wilson pass incomplete

3rd & 16Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.05

Terry Wilson run for 1 yd to the NMex 20

4th & 15Punt0 yds

Aaron Rodriguez punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Jordan Byrd at the SDSt 38

1st & 10Rush-2 ydsPPA -1.43

Jordan Byrd run for a loss of 2 yards to the SDSt 36

2nd & 12Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.23

Lucas Johnson pass complete to Jordan Byrd for 3 yds to the SDSt 39

3rd & 9Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.19

Jordan Byrd run for 3 yds to the SDSt 42

4th & 6Punt0 yds

Matt Araiza punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Andrew Erickson at the NMex 17

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.73

Terry Wilson run for 8 yds to the NMex 25

2nd & 2Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.11

Aaron Dumas run for 5 yds to the NMex 30 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+19 ydsPPA +1.77

Aaron Dumas run for 19 yds to the NMex 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.13

Terry Wilson pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.32

Terry Wilson pass complete to Luke Wysong for 6 yds to the SDSt 45

3rd & 4Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.41

Terry Wilson pass complete to Jace Taylor for 3 yds to the SDSt 42

4th & 1Rush+14 ydsPPA +2.38

Aaron Dumas run for 14 yds to the SDSt 28 for a 1ST down

2nd & 22Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.87

Terry Wilson pass incomplete

3rd & 22Sack0 ydsPPA -0.55

Terry Wilson sacked by Jalil Lecky and Sefo Mailangi for 0 yards to the SDSt 47

4th & 29Punt0 yds

Aaron Rodriguez punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Jordan Byrd at the SDSt 11

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.15

Jaylon Armstead run for 3 yds to the SDSt 14

2nd & 7Rush0 ydsPPA -0.28

Jaylon Armstead run for no gain to the SDSt 14

3rd & 7Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.07

Lucas Johnson run for 6 yds to the SDSt 20

4th & 1Punt+30 yds

Matt Araiza punt for 45 yds SAN DIEGO ST Penalty, Kick Catch Interference enforced at the deadball spot for (TEAM) to the 50 yard line

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.87

Bobby Cole run for 1 yd to the SDSt 49

2nd & 9Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.84

Bobby Cole run for 8 yds to the SDSt 41

3rd & 1Rush+3 ydsPPA +0.78

Bobby Cole run for 3 yds to the SDSt 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.42

Bobby Cole run for 2 yds to the SDSt 36

2nd & 8Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.30

Bobby Cole run for 3 yds to the SDSt 33

3rd & 5Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.00

CJ Montes pass incomplete

4th & 5Rush-1 ydsPPA -2.19

CJ Montes run for a loss of 1 yard to the SDSt 34

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.70

Jaylon Armstead run for 7 yds to the SDSt 41

2nd & 3Rush+1 ydsPPA -1.01

William Haskell run for 1 yd to the SDSt 42

Situational Analysis

New Mexico

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
41%
22 plays
0%
1 play
2nd
67%
3 plays
0%
1 play
29%
7 plays
13%
8 plays
3rd
40%
5 plays
0%
3 plays
33%
3 plays
20%
5 plays
4th
100%
1 play
0%
1 play

San Diego State

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
50%
2 plays
26%
27 plays
2nd
67%
3 plays
75%
4 plays
53%
15 plays
0%
1 play
3rd
67%
3 plays
33%
3 plays
50%
4 plays
100%
1 play
4th
50%
2 plays