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← Back to GamesSep 25, 2021Week 4

House Prediction

Model Margin

San Diego State by 13.7

Home Win Probability

San Diego State 79%

Market (consensus)

San Diego State -23

Edge: Towson +23 (9.3 pts)

fitted_v1 · Sep 25, 2021

Line Movement

No line movement to chart

Sportsbook snapshots publish once a line is posted for this game.

Team1Q2Q3Q4QFinal
Towson
770721
San Diego StateSan Diego State
71424348

Scoring Timeline

Q1Q2Q3Q40142842560-77-714-721-728-1435-1438-1448-1448-21
San Diego StateTowson

Drive Chart

Own 20Own 4050Opp 40Opp 20SDSTOWSDSTOWSDSTOWSDSTOWSDSTOWSDSTOWSDSTOWTOWTOWSDSTOWSDSTOWSDSTOWSDSTOWSDSPUNT35ydPUNT627ydTO626ydTD469ydPUNT3-5ydTO32ydTD515ydPUNT517ydTD1190ydPUNT30ydTD670ydPUNT38ydPUNT38ydTD1180ydTD3-1ydTO519ydTD364ydPUNT3-18ydFG40ydPUNT32ydTD464ydPUNT32ydFG1764ydTD424ydEND1064yd

Box Score

Team statistics comparing Towson and San Diego State
StatisticTowsonSan Diego State
Passing19-3617-26
Pass Yards213169
Rush Yards15281
Total Yards228450
Turnovers21
3rd Down4-128-15
Penalties8-576-43
Possession21:5038:10

Player Leaders

Player Leaders

Towson
passing
Chris Ferguson
19/35, 213 YDS, 3 TD, 1 INT
rushing
Jerry Howard Jr.
12 CAR, 19 YDS
receiving
Caleb Smith
9 REC, 65 YDS, 1 TD
defense
San Diego State
passing
Lucas Johnson
16/25, 149 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
rushing
Chance Bell
7 CAR, 79 YDS, 1 TD
receiving
Brionne Penny
4 REC, 55 YDS
defense

Play-by-Play

1st & 10Fumble Recovery (Own)-5 ydsPPA -1.07

run for a loss of 5 yards to the SDSt 20 fumbled, recovered by SDSt Lucas Johnson

2nd & 15Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.15

Lucas Johnson pass incomplete

3rd & 15Rush+10 ydsPPA +0.19

Kaegun Williams run for 10 yds to the SDSt 30

4th & 5Punt-5 yds

Matt Araiza punt for 58 yds , D'Ago Hunter returns for a loss of 5 yards to the Tows 7

1st & 10Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.13

Chris Ferguson pass complete to Caleb Smith for 3 yds to the Tows 10

2nd & 7Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.03

Jerry Howard Jr. run for 4 yds to the Tows 14

3rd & 3Pass Reception+18 ydsPPA +1.51

Chris Ferguson pass complete to Jason Epps for 18 yds to the Tows 32 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.11

Jerry Howard Jr. run for 5 yds to the Tows 37

2nd & 5Rush-3 ydsPPA -1.37

Jerry Howard Jr. run for a loss of 3 yards to the Tows 34

3rd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.34

Chris Ferguson pass incomplete

4th & 8Punt+11 yds

Shane McDonough punt for 50 yds , Jordan Byrd returns for 11 yds to the SDSt 27

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.64

Greg Bell run for 1 yd to the SDSt 28

2nd & 9Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.21

Lucas Johnson pass complete to Mekhi Shaw for 6 yds to the SDSt 34

3rd & 3Penalty+5 yds

TOWSON Penalty, Offsides (Vinnie Shaffer) to the SDSt 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+15 ydsPPA +1.31

Lucas Johnson pass complete to Mekhi Shaw for 15 yds to the Tows 46 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.34

Greg Bell run for 3 yds to the Tows 43

2nd & 7Rush-4 ydsPPA -1.95

Jordan Byrd run for a loss of 4 yards to the Tows 47

3rd & 11Pass Interception Return0 ydsPPA -1.16

Lucas Johnson pass intercepted return for no gain to the Tows 31

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.89

Chris Ferguson pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Reception+49 ydsPPA +3.88

Chris Ferguson pass complete to Daniel Thompson IV for 49 yds to the SDSt 20 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.29

Jerry Howard Jr. run for 1 yd to the SDSt 19

2nd & 9Passing Touchdown+19 ydsPPA +2.91

Chris Ferguson pass complete to Jerry Howard Jr. for 19 yds for a TD, (Keegan Vaughan KICK)

1st & 10Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.09

Lucas Johnson pass complete to Jesse Matthews for 5 yds to the SDSt 30

2nd & 5Penalty-10 yds

BELL, Greg rush up the middle for no gain to the SDS30 (BOWMAN, Marcus). PENALTY SDS Holding on TROMBLEY, Kyle enforced 10 yards from the SDS30 to the SDS20 [NH]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

2nd & 15Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.15

Lucas Johnson pass incomplete

3rd & 15Rush0 ydsPPA -0.07

Chance Bell run for no gain to the SDSt 20

4th & 15Punt+5 yds

Matt Araiza punt for 72 yds , D'Ago Hunter returns for 5 yds to the Tows 13

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.42

D'Ago Hunter run for 7 yds to the Tows 20

2nd & 3Rush+12 ydsPPA +0.76

D'Ago Hunter run for 12 yds to the Tows 32 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty-15 yds

FERGUSON, Chris pass to the right incomplete intended for STREET, Darian thrown to the TOW27. PENALTY TOW Personal Foul on DESIRE, Alex enforced 15 yards from the TOW32 to the TOW17 [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

1st & 25Fumble Recovery (Opponent)-2 ydsPPA +0.24

run for a loss of 2 yards to the Tows 15 fumbled, recovered by SDSt Garret Fountain

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.10

Kaegun Williams run for 3 yds to the Tows 12

2nd & 7Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.10

Lucas Johnson pass complete to BJ Busbee for 3 yds to the Tows 9

3rd & 4Penalty0 yds

TOWSON Penalty, Offsides (Ryan Kearney) declined for a 1ST down

1st & 4Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.52

Kaegun Williams run for 1 yd to the Tows 3

2nd & 3Penalty-5 yds

JOHNSON, Lucas pass to the right incomplete intended for SHAVERS, Tyrell broken up by COLLINS, Mark at the TOW0. PENALTY Before the snap, SDS Illegal Formation on ULUAVE, Alama enforced 5 yards from the TOW3 to the TOW8. NO PLAY (replay the down).

2nd & 8Rushing Touchdown+8 ydsPPA +2.68

Kaegun Williams run for 8 yds for a TD, (Matt Araiza KICK)

0th & 0Kickoff Return (Offense)+19 yds

Matt Araiza kickoff for 65 yds , D'Ago Hunter return for 19 yds to the Tows 19

1st & 10Pass Reception+2 ydsPPA -0.35

Chris Ferguson pass complete to Caleb Smith for 2 yds to the Tows 21

2nd & 8Pass Reception+15 ydsPPA +1.64

Chris Ferguson pass complete to Jason Epps for 15 yds to the Tows 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -1.04

Jerry Howard Jr. run for no gain to the Tows 36

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.63

Chris Ferguson pass incomplete

3rd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.32

Chris Ferguson pass incomplete

4th & 10Punt+54 yds

Shane McDonough punt for 54 yds, downed at the SANDIEGOST 10 SAN DIEGO ST Penalty, Offsides (TEAM) declined

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.35

Jordan Byrd run for no gain to the SDSt 10

2nd & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.06

Jordan Byrd run for 3 yds to the SDSt 13

3rd & 7Rush+9 ydsPPA +0.94

Jordan Byrd run for 9 yds to the SDSt 22 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +1.17

Lucas Johnson pass complete to Kaegun Williams for 9 yds to the SDSt 31

2nd & 1Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +0.64

Lucas Johnson pass complete to BJ Busbee for 12 yds to the SDSt 43 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.39

Lucas Johnson pass complete to Isaiah Richardson for 6 yds to the SDSt 49

2nd & 4Rush0 ydsPPA -1.24

Chance Bell run for no gain to the SDSt 49

3rd & 4Penalty+5 yds

TOWSON Penalty, Offsides (Vinnie Shaffer) to the Tows 46 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty+15 yds

JOHNSON, Lucas pass up the middle incomplete intended for SHAVERS, Tyrell broken up by PEEPLES, Charles at the TOW6. PENALTY TOW Pass Interference on PEEPLES, Charles enforced 15 yards to the TOW31 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.05

Chance Bell run for 4 yds to the Tows 27

2nd & 6Pass Reception+15 ydsPPA +0.36

Lucas Johnson pass complete to Isaiah Richardson for 15 yds to the Tows 12 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.30

Lucas Johnson pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rushing Touchdown+12 ydsPPA +2.83

Jordan Byrd run for 12 yds for a TD, (Matt Araiza KICK)

0th & 0Penalty0 yds

TOWSON Penalty, Offsides (Charles Peeples) to the Tows 2

0th & 0Kickoff Return (Offense)+25 yds

Matt Araiza kickoff for 64 yds , D'Ago Hunter return for 25 yds to the Tows 26

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.73

Chris Ferguson pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Reception0 ydsPPA -0.37

Chris Ferguson pass complete to Darian Street for no gain to the Tows 26

3rd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.17

Chris Ferguson pass incomplete

4th & 10Punt+4 yds

Shane McDonough punt for 48 yds , Jordan Byrd returns for 4 yds to the SDSt 30

1st & 10Penalty+5 yds

TOWSON Penalty, Offsides (5 Yards) to the SDSt 35

1st & 5Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA -0.29

Lucas Johnson pass complete to Jesse Matthews for 8 yds to the SDSt 43 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+13 ydsPPA +1.05

Chance Bell run for 13 yds to the Tows 44 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Sack0 ydsPPA -0.97

Lucas Johnson sacked by Keyvone Bruton for 0 yards to the SDSt 47

2nd & 19Rush+25 ydsPPA +3.49

Kaegun Williams run for 25 yds to the Tows 28 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+12 ydsPPA +0.20

Kaegun Williams run for 12 yds to the Tows 16 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Passing Touchdown+16 ydsPPA +2.57

Lucas Johnson pass complete to Elijah Kothe for 16 yds for a TD, (Matt Araiza KICK)

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.33

Jerry Howard Jr. run for 6 yds to the Tows 31

2nd & 4Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.55

Jerry Howard Jr. run for 2 yds to the Tows 33

3rd & 2Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.60

Chris Ferguson pass incomplete

4th & 2Punt0 yds

Shane McDonough punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Jordan Byrd at the SDSt 25

1st & 10Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.30

Lucas Johnson pass complete to Ethan Dedeaux for 3 yds to the SDSt 28

2nd & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.56

Lucas Johnson pass incomplete

3rd & 7Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.03

Kaegun Williams run for 5 yds to the SDSt 33

4th & 2Punt0 yds

Matt Araiza punt for 67 yds for a touchback

1st & 10Pass Reception+17 ydsPPA +1.34

Chris Ferguson pass complete to Caleb Smith for 17 yds to the Tows 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Sack0 ydsPPA -1.07

Chris Ferguson sacked by Jonah Tavai and Cameron Thomas for 0 yards to the Tows 33

2nd & 14Pass Reception+13 ydsPPA +1.60

Chris Ferguson pass complete to Caleb Smith for 13 yds to the Tows 46

3rd & 1Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA +1.18

Chris Ferguson pass complete to Caleb Smith for 3 yds to the Tows 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +1.12

Chris Ferguson pass complete to Caleb Smith for 9 yds to the SDSt 42

2nd & 1Penalty+3 yds

FERGUSON, Chris pass up the middle incomplete intended for HUNTER, D'Ago thrown to the SDS38. PENALTY SDS Pass Interference on OLUBI, Segun enforced at the spot of the foul for 3 yards to the SDS39 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.81

Chris Ferguson pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.14

Chris Ferguson pass complete to Jabari Allen for 4 yds to the SDSt 35

3rd & 6Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +1.33

Chris Ferguson pass complete to Caleb Smith for 7 yds to the SDSt 28 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.51

Chris Ferguson pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Reception+24 ydsPPA +1.59

Chris Ferguson pass complete to Darian Street for 24 yds to the SDSt 4 for a 1ST down

1st & 4Passing Touchdown+4 ydsPPA +1.69

Chris Ferguson pass complete to Caleb Smith for 4 yds for a TD, (Keegan Vaughan KICK)

0th & 10End of Half0 yds

End of 2nd Quarter

0th & 0Kickoff Return (Offense)+16 yds

Shane McDonough kickoff for 44 yds , Kaegun Williams return for 16 yds to the SDSt 37

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.80

D'Ago Hunter run for a loss of 1 yard to the Tows 24

2nd & 11Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.29

Chris Ferguson pass incomplete

3rd & 11Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.13

Chris Ferguson pass incomplete

4th & 11Blocked Punt Touchdown+11 ydsPPA -6.69

Trenton Thompson 11 Yd Return of Blocked Punt (Matt Araiza Kick)

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.91

Jerry Howard Jr. run for 8 yds to the Tows 33

2nd & 2Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.93

Jerry Howard Jr. run for 1 yd to the Tows 34

3rd & 1Rush+9 ydsPPA +1.64

Devin Matthews run for 9 yds to the Tows 43 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.93

Jerry Howard Jr. run for 1 yd to the Tows 44

2nd & 9Pass Interception Return0 ydsPPA -1.61

Chris Ferguson pass intercepted return for no gain to the SDSt 36

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -1.04

Jordan Byrd run for no gain to the SDSt 36

2nd & 10Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +0.99

Lucas Johnson pass complete to Tyrell Shavers for 9 yds to the SDSt 45

3rd & 1Rushing Touchdown+55 ydsPPA +5.20

Jordan Byrd run for 55 yds for a TD, (Matt Araiza KICK)

1st & 10Fumble Recovery (Own)-15 ydsPPA -1.29

run for a loss of 15 yards to the Tows 10 fumbled, recovered by Tows Chris Ferguson

2nd & 25Penalty-19 yds

FERGUSON, Chris pass to the right complete for 19 yards to RUTKOWSKI, Ryan caught at the TOW29 and advanced to the TOW29 (THOMPSON, Trenton). PENALTY TOW Holding on BRYANT, Darian enforced half the distance from the goal, 5 yards from the TOW10 to the TOW5 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

2nd & 30Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.01

Chris Ferguson pass complete to D'Ago Hunter for 7 yds to the Tows 12

3rd & 23Penalty+5 yds

SAN DIEGO ST Penalty, Offsides (Jonah Tavai) to the Tows 17

3rd & 18Sack0 ydsPPA -0.04

Chris Ferguson sacked by Jonah Tavai and Cameron Thomas for 0 yards to the Tows 7

4th & 28Punt+16 yds

Shane McDonough punt for 39 yds , Jordan Byrd returns for 16 yds to the Tows 30

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.56

Lucas Johnson pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.76

Chance Bell run for no gain to the Tows 30

3rd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.99

Lucas Johnson pass incomplete

4th & 10Field Goal Good+48 yds

Matt Araiza 48 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.70

Chris Ferguson pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.35

Chris Ferguson pass incomplete

3rd & 10Penalty-5 yds

TOWSON Penalty, False Start (D'Ago Hunter) to the Tows 20

3rd & 15Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.06

Chris Ferguson pass complete to Caleb Smith for 7 yds to the Tows 27

4th & 8Punt0 yds

Shane McDonough punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Mekhi Shaw at the SDSt 36

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.64

Kaegun Williams run for 2 yds to the SDSt 38

2nd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.81

Lucas Johnson pass incomplete

3rd & 8Rush+61 ydsPPA +5.66

Chance Bell run for 61 yds to the Tows 1 for a 1ST down

1st & 1Rushing Touchdown+1 ydsPPA +0.94

Chance Bell run for 1 yd for a TD, (Matt Araiza KICK)

1st & 10Rush-3 ydsPPA -0.96

Jerry Howard Jr. run for a loss of 3 yards to the Tows 22

2nd & 13Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.21

Chris Ferguson pass incomplete

3rd & 13Penalty+5 yds

SAN DIEGO ST Penalty, Offsides (Jalil Lecky) to the Tows 27

3rd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.22

Chris Ferguson pass incomplete

4th & 8Punt0 yds

Shane McDonough punt for 56 yds, downed at the SDSt 17

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.48

Lucas Johnson pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.03

Kaegun Williams run for 5 yds to the SDSt 22

3rd & 5Pass Reception+15 ydsPPA +1.93

Lucas Johnson pass complete to Brionne Penny for 15 yds to the SDSt 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.71

Lucas Johnson pass complete to Isaiah Richardson for 7 yds to the SDSt 44

2nd & 3Rush-6 ydsPPA -2.33

Jaylon Armstead run for a loss of 6 yards to the SDSt 38

3rd & 9Pass Reception+13 ydsPPA +2.91

Lucas Johnson pass complete to Brionne Penny for 13 yds to the Tows 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -1.10

Jaylon Armstead run for no gain to the Tows 49

2nd & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.63

Jaylon Armstead run for 2 yds to the Tows 47

3rd & 8Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.53

Lucas Johnson pass complete to Brionne Penny for 7 yds to the Tows 40

4th & 1Rush+5 ydsPPA +1.98

Jaylon Armstead run for 5 yds to the Tows 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.39

Jaylon Armstead run for 7 yds to the Tows 28

2nd & 3Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.38

Jaylon Armstead run for 2 yds to the Tows 26

3rd & 1Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.35

Jaylon Armstead run for 7 yds to the Tows 19 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.20

Jaylon Armstead run for 2 yds to the Tows 17

2nd & 8Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.30

Lucky Avinger run for 1 yd to the Tows 16

3rd & 7Rush-3 ydsPPA -1.01

Lucky Avinger run for a loss of 3 yards to the Tows 19

4th & 10Field Goal Good+36 yds

Matt Araiza 36 yd FG GOOD

0th & 0Kickoff Return (Offense)+73 yds

Jack Browning kickoff for 62 yds , D'Ago Hunter return for 73 yds to the SDSt 24

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.43

Chris Ferguson pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.18

Chris Ferguson pass complete to Jason Epps for 3 yds to the SDSt 21

3rd & 7Pass Interception Return0 ydsPPA -3.71

Chris Ferguson pass intercepted for a 1ST down return for no gain to the SDSt 11 for a 1ST down

1st & 6Rush-3 ydsPPA -0.69

Jerry Howard Jr. run for a loss of 3 yards to the SDSt 9

2nd & 9Passing Touchdown+9 ydsPPA +2.74

Chris Ferguson pass complete to Daniel Thompson IV for 9 yds for a TD, (Keegan Vaughan KICK)

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.60

William Haskell run for 7 yds to the SDSt 32

2nd & 3Rush0 ydsPPA -0.99

Jaylon Armstead run for no gain to the SDSt 32

3rd & 3Rush+5 ydsPPA +1.42

William Haskell run for 5 yds to the SDSt 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.71

Jaylon Armstead run for 7 yds to the SDSt 44

2nd & 3Rush+4 ydsPPA +0.33

Jaylon Armstead run for 4 yds to the SDSt 48 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.88

William Haskell run for 8 yds to the Tows 44

2nd & 2Rush+5 ydsPPA -0.01

Lucky Avinger run for 5 yds to the Tows 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+20 ydsPPA +0.54

William Haskell pass complete to Brionne Penny for 20 yds to the Tows 19 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.28

Jaylon Armstead run for 1 yd to the Tows 18

2nd & 9Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.23

Jaylon Armstead run for 7 yds to the Tows 11

Situational Analysis

Towson

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
50%
2 plays
29%
21 plays
100%
1 play
2nd
50%
2 plays
0%
2 plays
42%
12 plays
50%
4 plays
3rd
75%
4 plays
100%
1 play
0%
5 plays
33%
3 plays
4th
0%
1 play

San Diego State

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
100%
1 play
0%
2 plays
45%
29 plays
2nd
33%
6 plays
50%
2 plays
43%
14 plays
33%
3 plays
3rd
100%
3 plays
100%
1 play
71%
7 plays
33%
3 plays
4th
100%
1 play