Skip to main content
← Back to GamesSep 5, 2021Week 1

House Prediction

Model Margin

Nevada by 2.1

Home Win Probability

California 43%

Market (consensus)

California -3

Edge: Nevada +3 (5.1 pts)

fitted_v1 · Sep 5, 2021

Line Movement

No line movement to chart

Sportsbook snapshots publish once a line is posted for this game.

Team1Q2Q3Q4QFinal
NevadaNevada
0139022
CaliforniaCalifornia
1400317

Scoring Timeline

Q1Q2Q3Q4014287-014-014-1014-1914-2217-22
CaliforniaNevada

Drive Chart

Own 20Own 4050Opp 40Opp 20CALNEVCALCALNEVCALNEVCALNEVNEVNEVCALNEVCALNEVCALNEVCALNEVCALNEVCALNEVTD1563ydPUNT36ydTD972ydPUNT30ydTD568ydPUNT34ydPUNT510ydPUNT38ydFG723ydFG956ydTD775ydPUNT322ydFG925ydPUNT619ydFG749ydFG964ydTO447ydFG1177ydPUNT521ydTO10ydPUNT613ydDOWNS45ydEND2-5yd

Box Score

Team statistics comparing Nevada and California
StatisticNevadaCalifornia
Passing22-3925-38
Pass Yards312177
Rush Yards61153
Total Yards373330
Turnovers11
3rd Down6-166-14
Penalties4-455-56
Possession27:4432:16

Player Leaders

Player Leaders

Nevada
passing
Carson Strong
22/39, 312 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
rushing
Toa Taua
10 CAR, 37 YDS
receiving
Tory Horton
3 REC, 94 YDS
defense
California
passing
Chase Garbers
25/38, 177 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
rushing
Damien Moore
15 CAR, 79 YDS, 1 TD
receiving
Jeremiah Hunter
2 REC, 35 YDS
defense
JH Tevis
2.5 TFL

Play-by-Play

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.66

Damien Moore run for 2 yds to the Cal 39

2nd & 8Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.08

Chase Garbers pass complete to Nikko Remigio for 5 yds to the Cal 34

3rd & 13Pass Reception+13 ydsPPA +2.93

Chase Garbers pass complete to Trevon Clark for 13 yds to the Cal 47 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.90

Damien Moore run for 8 yds to the Nevad 45

2nd & 2Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.00

Damien Moore run for 5 yds to the Nevad 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.85

Chase Garbers pass incomplete to Nikko Remigio

2nd & 10Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +0.84

Chase Garbers pass complete to Damien Moore for 9 yds to the Nevad 31

3rd & 1Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.49

Chase Garbers pass complete to Trevon Clark for 6 yds to the Nevad 25 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.04

Chase Garbers pass complete to Christopher Brooks for 4 yds to the Nevad 21

2nd & 6Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.04

Damien Moore run for 4 yds to the Nevad 17

3rd & 2Pass Reception+2 ydsPPA +0.22

Chase Garbers pass complete to Marcel Dancy for 2 yds to the Nevad 15 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +0.61

Damien Moore run for 9 yds to the Nevad 6

2nd & 1Rush+3 ydsPPA +0.48

Damien Moore run for 3 yds to the Nevad 3 for a 1ST down

1st & 3Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.44

Chase Garbers run for 2 yds to the Nevad 1

2nd & 1Rushing Touchdown+1 ydsPPA +1.90

Damien Moore run for 1 yd for a TD, (Dario Longhetto KICK)

1st & 10Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.33

Carson Strong pass complete to Romeo Doubs for 6 yds to the Nevad 31

2nd & 4Rush0 ydsPPA -0.87

Toa Taua run for no gain to the Nevad 31

3rd & 4Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.44

Carson Strong pass incomplete to Elijah Cooks

4th & 4Punt0 yds

Julian Diaz punt for 45 yds

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.51

Christopher Brooks run for 2 yds to the Cal 30

2nd & 8Rush+20 ydsPPA +2.52

Christopher Brooks run for 20 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.39

Christopher Brooks run for 3 yds to the Nevad 47

2nd & 7Rush+12 ydsPPA +1.25

Damien Moore run for 12 yds to the Nevad 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.69

Chase Garbers pass incomplete to Damien Moore

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.91

Chase Garbers pass incomplete to Jeremiah Hunter

3rd & 10Pass Reception+28 ydsPPA +2.38

Chase Garbers pass complete to Jeremiah Hunter for 28 yds to the Nevad 7 for a 1ST down NEVADA Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Berdale Robins) declined for a 1ST down

1st & 7Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.13

Damien Moore run for 5 yds to the Nevad 2

2nd & 2Passing Touchdown+2 ydsPPA +2.07

Chase Garbers pass complete to Nikko Remigio for 2 yds for a TD, (Dario Longhetto KICK)

1st & 10Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.60

Chase Garbers pass complete to Jeremiah Hunter for 7 yds to the Cal 32

2nd & 3Penalty0 yds

Brooks,Christopher rush for 0 yards to the Cal32 (Peterson,Dom) PENALTY Cal Holding (Cindric,Matthew) 11 yard from Cal32 to Cal21. NO PLAY.

2nd & 14Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +0.36

Chase Garbers pass complete to Marcel Dancy for 9 yds to the Cal 30

3rd & 5Sack-5 ydsPPA -0.55

Chase Garbers sacked by Daniel Grzesiak for a loss of 5 yards to the Cal 25

4th & 10Punt0 yds

Jamieson Sheahan punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Romeo Doubs at the Nevad 32

1st & 10Rush+12 ydsPPA +1.15

Toa Taua run for 12 yds to the Nevad 44 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.16

Carson Strong pass incomplete to Elijah Cooks

2nd & 10Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.57

Carson Strong pass complete to Romeo Doubs for 7 yds to the Cal 49

3rd & 3Rush+6 ydsPPA +1.61

Devonte Lee run for 6 yds to the Cal 43 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Passing Touchdown+43 ydsPPA +3.35

Carson Strong pass complete to Romeo Doubs for 43 yds for a TD, (Brandon Talton KICK)

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.59

Damien Moore run for 1 yd to the Cal 24

2nd & 11Pass Reception0 ydsPPA -0.29

Chase Garbers pass complete to Damien Moore for no gain to the Cal 24

3rd & 11Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.02

Chase Garbers pass complete to Nikko Remigio for 5 yds to the Cal 29

4th & 6Punt0 yds

Jamieson Sheahan punt for 49 yds

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.10

Carson Strong run for 4 yds to the Nevad 26

2nd & 6Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.94

Carson Strong pass complete to Melquan Stovall for 7 yds to the Nevad 33 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.96

Devonte Lee run for no gain to the Nevad 33

2nd & 10Pass Reception+1 ydsPPA -0.45

Carson Strong pass complete to Romeo Doubs for 1 yd to the Nevad 32

3rd & 11Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.23

Carson Strong pass incomplete to Toa Taua

4th & 11Punt0 yds

Julian Diaz punt for 56 yds

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.60

run for 2 yds to the Cal 35

2nd & 8Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.30

Chase Garbers pass complete to Nikko Remigio for 6 yds to the Cal 41

3rd & 2Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.85

Chase Garbers pass incomplete to Jake Tonges

4th & 2Punt0 yds

Jamieson Sheahan punt for 38 yds

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.88

Carson Strong pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.04

Carson Strong pass incomplete to Romeo Doubs

3rd & 10Pass Reception+17 ydsPPA +2.48

Carson Strong pass complete to Cole Turner for 17 yds to the Cal 24 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.19

Carson Strong pass complete to Tory Horton for 6 yds to the Cal 18

2nd & 4Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.48

Carson Strong pass incomplete to Devonte Lee

3rd & 4Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.54

Carson Strong pass incomplete to Cole Turner

4th & 4Field Goal Good+35 yds

Brandon Talton 35 yd FG GOOD

0th & 10End of Half0 yds

End of 2nd Quarter

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.33

Toa Taua run for 2 yds to the Nevad 16

2nd & 12Rush+9 ydsPPA +0.36

Toa Taua run for 9 yds to the Nevad 25

3rd & 3Pass Reception+16 ydsPPA +2.11

Carson Strong pass complete to Cole Turner for 16 yds to the Nevad 41 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.70

Carson Strong pass complete to Elijah Cooks for 7 yds to the Nevad 48

2nd & 3Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +0.77

Carson Strong pass complete to Romeo Doubs for 12 yds to the Cal 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty+15 yds

Strong,Carson pass incomplete to Cooks,Elijah PENALTY Cal Pass Interference (Anusiem,Chigozie) 15 yards from Cal40 to Cal25, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.24

Toa Taua run for 2 yds to the Cal 23

2nd & 8Sack-3 ydsPPA -0.98

Carson Strong sacked by Evan Tattersall for a loss of 3 yards to the Cal 26

3rd & 11Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.93

Carson Strong pass incomplete to Cole Turner

4th & 11Field Goal Good+44 yds

Brandon Talton 44 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.09

Toa Taua run for 5 yds to the Nevad 20

2nd & 15Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.15

Carson Strong pass incomplete to Romeo Doubs

3rd & 15Pass Reception+17 ydsPPA +2.24

Carson Strong pass complete to Cole Turner for 17 yds to the Nevad 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.07

Carson Strong pass incomplete to Elijah Cooks

2nd & 10Pass Reception+1 ydsPPA -0.55

Carson Strong pass complete to Cole Turner for 1 yd to the Nevad 38

3rd & 9Pass Reception+46 ydsPPA +4.10

Carson Strong pass complete to Tory Horton for 46 yds to the Cal 16 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Passing Touchdown+16 ydsPPA +2.57

Carson Strong pass complete to Elijah Cooks for 16 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed )

1st & 10Penalty+15 yds

Garbers,Chase pass incomplete PENALTY NEV Roughing The Passer (Nichols,Tristan) 15 yards from Cal17 to Cal32, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.11

Chase Garbers run for 5 yds to the Cal 37

2nd & 5Penalty-5 yds

PENALTY Cal False Start (Daltoso,Valentino) 5 yards from Cal37 to Cal32. NO PLAY.

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.51

Chase Garbers pass incomplete to Trevon Clark

3rd & 10Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.21

Chase Garbers pass complete to Damien Moore for 7 yds to the Cal 39

4th & 3Punt0 yds

Jamieson Sheahan punt for 34 yds

1st & 10Pass Reception+20 ydsPPA +1.41

Carson Strong pass complete to Toa Taua for 20 yds to the Cal 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.57

Toa Taua run for 1 yd to the Cal 36

2nd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.93

Carson Strong pass incomplete to Cole Turner

3rd & 9Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.68

Carson Strong pass complete to Justin Lockhart for 8 yds to the Cal 28

4th & 1Rush+4 ydsPPA +1.19

Devonte Lee run for 4 yds to the Cal 24 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.43

Carson Strong pass incomplete to Elijah Cooks

2nd & 10Sack-8 ydsPPA -2.11

Carson Strong sacked by Luc Bequette for a loss of 8 yards to the Cal 32

4th & 18Field Goal Good+49 yds

Brandon Talton 49 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.11

Chase Garbers run for 4 yds to the Cal 29

2nd & 6Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.11

Damien Moore run for 4 yds to the Cal 33

3rd & 2Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA +1.25

Chase Garbers pass complete to Nikko Remigio for 4 yds to the Cal 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.71

Chase Garbers pass complete to Monroe Young for 7 yds to the Cal 44

2nd & 3Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.28

Chase Garbers pass incomplete to Jeremiah Hunter

3rd & 3Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.88

Chase Garbers pass incomplete to Nikko Remigio

4th & 3Punt0 yds

Jamieson Sheahan punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Bentlee Sanders at the Nevad 21

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.09

Devonte Lee run for 4 yds to the Nevad 25

2nd & 6Rush+9 ydsPPA +1.09

Toa Taua run for 9 yds to the Nevad 34 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+31 ydsPPA +2.36

Carson Strong pass complete to Romeo Doubs for 16 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down CALIFORNIA Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (Evan Tattersall) to the Cal 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.69

Devonte Lee run for no gain to the Cal 35

2nd & 10Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.06

Carson Strong pass complete to Cole Turner for 5 yds to the Cal 30

3rd & 5Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.92

Carson Strong pass incomplete to Toa Taua

4th & 5Field Goal Good+47 yds

Brandon Talton 47 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Pass Reception+13 ydsPPA +1.23

Chase Garbers pass complete to Trevon Clark for 13 yds to the Cal 43 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.17

Chase Garbers pass complete to Jake Tonges for 4 yds to the Cal 47

2nd & 6Pass Reception+24 ydsPPA +1.84

Chase Garbers pass complete to Kekoa Crawford for 24 yds to the Nevad 29 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.50

Marcel Dancy run for 8 yds to the Nevad 21

2nd & 2Rush+8 ydsPPA -0.25

DeCarlos Brooks run for 8 yds to the Nevad 13 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.30

Chase Garbers pass incomplete to Keleki Latu

2nd & 10Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.19

Chase Garbers pass complete to Marcel Dancy for 7 yds to the Nevad 6

3rd & 3Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.32

Chase Garbers pass incomplete to Nikko Remigio

4th & 3Field Goal Good+24 yds

Dario Longhetto 24 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Pass Reception+42 ydsPPA +3.28

Carson Strong pass complete to Tory Horton for 42 yds to the Cal 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.08

Toa Taua run for 5 yds to the Cal 32

2nd & 5Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.77

Carson Strong pass incomplete to Cole Turner

3rd & 5Interception0 ydsPPA -3.26

Carson Strong pass intercepted

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.24

Chase Garbers pass incomplete to Monroe Young

2nd & 10Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.01

Chase Garbers pass complete to Nikko Remigio for 4 yds to the Cal 5

3rd & 5Penalty+15 yds

Garbers,Chase pass incomplete to Hunter,Jeremiah PENALTY NEV Pass Interference (King,AJ) 15 yards from Cal06 to Cal21, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.

1st & 10Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.09

Chase Garbers pass complete to Nikko Remigio for 5 yds to the Cal 26

2nd & 5Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.10

Damien Moore run for 4 yds to the Cal 30

3rd & 1Rush+6 ydsPPA +1.19

Damien Moore run for 6 yds to the Cal 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+38 ydsPPA +2.43

DeCarlos Brooks run for 38 yds to the Nevad 26 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+15 ydsPPA +0.20

Damien Moore run for 15 yds to the Nevad 11 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.29

Chase Garbers pass incomplete to Kekoa Crawford

2nd & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.15

Chase Garbers run for 2 yds to the Nevad 9

3rd & 8Sack-13 ydsPPA -2.63

Chase Garbers sacked by Sam Hammond for a loss of 13 yards to the Nevad 22

4th & 21Field Goal Good+40 yds

Dario Longhetto 40 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.84

Devonte Lee run for 8 yds to the Nevad 30

2nd & 2Rush+10 ydsPPA +0.67

Devonte Lee run for 10 yds to the Nevad 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.91

Devonte Lee run for 1 yd to the Nevad 41

2nd & 9Pass Reception+2 ydsPPA -0.53

Carson Strong pass complete to Toa Taua for 2 yds to the Nevad 43

3rd & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.62

Carson Strong pass incomplete to Justin Lockhart

4th & 7Punt0 yds

Julian Diaz punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Nikko Remigio at the Cal 15

1st & 10Interception0 ydsPPA -0.38

Chase Garbers pass intercepted

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.14

Devonte Lee run for 4 yds to the Cal 46

2nd & 6Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.90

Devonte Lee run for 1 yd to the Cal 47

3rd & 7Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +2.17

Carson Strong pass complete to Cole Turner for 7 yds to the Cal 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty-10 yds

Lee,Devonte rush for 0 yards to the Cal40 (Iosefa,Mo) PENALTY NEV Holding (Frost,Aaron) 10 yards from Cal40 to Cal50. NO PLAY.

1st & 20Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.27

Toa Taua run for 6 yds to the Cal 44

2nd & 14Rush0 ydsPPA -1.00

Devonte Lee run for no gain to the Cal 44

3rd & 14Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +1.57

Carson Strong pass complete to Cole Turner for 12 yds to the Cal 32

4th & 2Penalty-5 yds

PENALTY NEV False Start (Davis,Gray) 5 yards from Cal32 to Cal37. NO PLAY.

4th & 7Punt0 yds

Julian Diaz punt for 37 yds for a touchback

1st & 10Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +1.11

Chase Garbers pass complete to Kekoa Crawford for 9 yds to the Cal 29

2nd & 1Penalty-10 yds

Garbers,Chase pass complete to Tonges,Jake for 0 yards to the Cal29 PENALTY Cal Holding (Craig,Will) 10 yards from Cal29 to Cal19. NO PLAY.

2nd & 11Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.10

Chase Garbers pass complete to Marcel Dancy for 3 yds to the Cal 22

3rd & 8Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.07

Chase Garbers pass complete to Trevon Clark for 3 yds to the Cal 25

4th & 5Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA +0.19

Chase Garbers pass incomplete to Marcel Dancy

4th & 5Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA +0.19

Chase Garbers pass incomplete to Marcel Dancy

1st & 10Rush-3 ydsPPA -0.81

run for a loss of 3 yards to the Cal 28

2nd & 13Rush-2 ydsPPA -1.18

run for a loss of 2 yards to the Cal 30

Situational Analysis

Nevada

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
46%
26 plays
100%
1 play
2nd
100%
2 plays
33%
6 plays
22%
9 plays
25%
4 plays
3rd
100%
2 plays
0%
4 plays
80%
5 plays
50%
4 plays
4th
100%
1 play

California

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
0%
1 play
46%
26 plays
2nd
67%
6 plays
25%
4 plays
60%
10 plays
33%
3 plays
3rd
57%
7 plays
0%
1 play
50%
4 plays
100%
2 plays
4th
100%
2 plays