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← Back to GamesNov 27, 2021Week 13
Conference Game

House Prediction

Model Margin

Arkansas State by 3.4

Home Win Probability

Arkansas State 53%

Market (consensus)

Arkansas State -2

Edge: Arkansas State -2 (1.4 pts)

fitted_v1 · Nov 27, 2021

Line Movement

No line movement to chart

Sportsbook snapshots publish once a line is posted for this game.

Team1Q2Q3Q4QFinal
Texas StateTexas State
1437024
Arkansas StateArkansas State
733922

Scoring Timeline

Q1Q2Q3Q40142810-147-1410-1713-1713-2416-2422-24
Arkansas StateTexas State

Drive Chart

Own 20Own 4050Opp 40Opp 20TSTSASASTSTSASTSASASTSASTSASTSASTSASTSASTSASTSASTD1075ydPUNT35ydFG1481ydTD571ydPUNT524ydTD667ydMISS952ydPUNT38ydPUNT34ydPUNT3-6ydFG515ydPUNT620ydEND12ydFG1070ydTD683ydPUNT3-7ydPUNT614ydFG1155ydPUNT515ydPUNT32ydPUNT32ydTD886ydPUNT3-2ydMISS632yd

Box Score

Team statistics comparing Texas State and Arkansas State
StatisticTexas StateArkansas State
Passing12-2625-37
Pass Yards130277
Rush Yards203194
Total Yards333471
Turnovers00
3rd Down5-144-16
Penalties6-648-60
Possession25:0334:57

Player Leaders

Player Leaders

Texas State
passing
Tyler Vitt
11/25, 121 YDS, 1 TD
rushing
Calvin Hill
12 CAR, 123 YDS, 1 TD
receiving
T.J. Graham
4 REC, 67 YDS, 1 TD
defense
Arkansas State
passing
Layne Hatcher
25/37, 277 YDS, 2 TD
rushing
Alan Lamar
12 CAR, 88 YDS
receiving
Corey Rucker
8 REC, 85 YDS, 1 TD
defense

Play-by-Play

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.70

Tyler Vitt pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.04

Tyler Vitt pass complete to Jackson Lanam for 5 yds to the TexSt 30

3rd & 5Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +2.08

Tyler Vitt pass complete to Marcell Barbee for 11 yds to the TexSt 41 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception-1 ydsPPA -1.34

Tyler Vitt pass complete to Ashtyn Hawkins for a loss of 1 yard to the TexSt 40

2nd & 11Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +1.28

Tyler Vitt pass complete to Ashtyn Hawkins for 10 yds to the 50 yard line

3rd & 1Rush+4 ydsPPA +1.17

Jahmyl Jeter run for 4 yds to the ArkSt 46 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.03

Tyler Vitt pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.16

Jahmyl Jeter run for 4 yds to the ArkSt 42

3rd & 6Rush+23 ydsPPA +2.13

Tyler Vitt run for 23 yds to the ArkSt 19 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty0 yds

VITT, Tyler pass up the middle incomplete dropped by BARBEE, Marcell thrown to the ASU1. PENALTY ASU Pass Interference on JONES, Leon enforced half the distance from the goal, 15 yards to the ASU4 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

1st & 4Rushing Touchdown+4 ydsPPA +1.69

Jahmyl Jeter run for 4 yds for a TD, (Seth Keller KICK)

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.80

Tyler Vitt pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.41

Tyler Vitt pass incomplete

3rd & 10Penalty+5 yds

ARKANSAS ST Penalty, Offsides (Kivon Bennett) to the TexSt 33

3rd & 5Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.44

Tyler Vitt pass incomplete

4th & 5Punt0 yds

Seamus O'Kelly punt for 45 yds , Johnnie Lang Jr. returns for no gain to the ArkSt 13

4th & 5Punt0 yds

Seamus O'Kelly punt for 45 yds , Johnnie Lang Jr. returns for no gain to the ArkSt 13

1st & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +0.91

Lincoln Pare run for 9 yds to the ArkSt 22

2nd & 1Pass Reception+15 ydsPPA +0.74

Layne Hatcher pass complete to Corey Rucker for 15 yds to the ArkSt 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+24 ydsPPA +1.91

Layne Hatcher pass complete to Jeff Foreman for 24 yds to the TexSt 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.44

Lincoln Pare run for 7 yds to the TexSt 32

2nd & 3Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.80

Layne Hatcher pass incomplete

3rd & 3Pass Reception0 ydsPPA -0.95

Layne Hatcher pass complete to Corey Rucker for no gain to the TexSt 32

4th & 3Penalty-5 yds

ARKANSAS ST Penalty, False Start (Jacob Still) to the TexSt 37

4th & 8Pass Reception+13 ydsPPA +2.88

Layne Hatcher pass complete to Corey Rucker for 13 yds to the TexSt 24 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.08

Lincoln Pare run for 5 yds to the TexSt 19

2nd & 5Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.46

Layne Hatcher pass incomplete

3rd & 5Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +0.56

Layne Hatcher pass complete to Dahu Green for 9 yds to the TexSt 10 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.01

Lincoln Pare run for 4 yds to the TexSt 6

2nd & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.30

Layne Hatcher pass incomplete

3rd & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.30

Layne Hatcher pass incomplete

4th & 6Field Goal Good+23 yds

Blake Grupe 23 Yd Field Goal

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.69

Alan Lamar run for 1 yd to the ArkSt 30

2nd & 9Pass Reception+13 ydsPPA +2.00

Layne Hatcher pass complete to Seydou Traore for 13 yds to the ArkSt 43 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +1.28

Alan Lamar run for 9 yds to the TexSt 48

2nd & 1Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +0.04

Layne Hatcher pass complete to Corey Rucker for 9 yds to the TexSt 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Passing Touchdown+39 ydsPPA +3.14

L. Hatcher pass,to D. Green for 39 yds for a TD, (B. Grupe KICK)

1st & 10Rush+12 ydsPPA +1.05

Jahmyl Jeter run for 12 yds to the TexSt 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+11 ydsPPA +1.03

Jahmyl Jeter run for 11 yds to the TexSt 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-2 ydsPPA -1.59

Jahmyl Jeter run for a loss of 2 yards to the TexSt 47

2nd & 12Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.88

Tyler Vitt pass incomplete

3rd & 12Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.23

Tyler Vitt run for 3 yds to the 50 yard line

4th & 9Punt0 yds

Seamus O'Kelly punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Johnnie Lang Jr. at the ArkSt 7

1st & 10Pass Reception+24 ydsPPA +2.08

Tyler Vitt pass complete to Ashtyn Hawkins for 24 yds to the ArkSt 43 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.31

Calvin Hill run for 3 yds to the ArkSt 40

2nd & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.02

Tyler Vitt pass incomplete

3rd & 7Rush0 ydsPPA -1.05

Calvin Hill run for no gain to the ArkSt 40

4th & 7Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +2.88

Sione Tupou pass complete to Caleb Twyford for 9 yds to the ArkSt 31 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Passing Touchdown+31 ydsPPA +2.84

T. Vitt pass,to T. Graham Jr. for 31 yds for a TD, (S. Keller KICK)

1st & 10Rush+11 ydsPPA +0.87

Lincoln Pare run for 11 yds to the ArkSt 34 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-4 ydsPPA -1.49

run for a loss of 4 yards to the ArkSt 30

2nd & 14Pass Reception+18 ydsPPA +2.82

Layne Hatcher pass complete to Adam Jones for 18 yds to the ArkSt 48 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+14 ydsPPA +0.91

Lincoln Pare run for 14 yds to the TexSt 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +0.33

Layne Hatcher pass complete to Dahu Green for 10 yds to the TexSt 28 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty-5 yds

ARKANSAS ST Penalty, False Start (Makilan Thomas) to the TexSt 33

1st & 15Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.37

Lincoln Pare run for 2 yds to the TexSt 31

2nd & 13Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.19

Lincoln Pare run for 6 yds to the TexSt 25

3rd & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.81

Layne Hatcher pass incomplete

4th & 7Field Goal Missed+42 yds

Blake Grupe 42 yd FG MISSED

4th & 7Field Goal Missed+42 yds

Blake Grupe 42 yd FG MISSED

1st & 10Rush-5 ydsPPA -1.07

Jahmyl Jeter run for a loss of 5 yards to the TexSt 20

2nd & 15Pass Reception+13 ydsPPA +0.85

Tyler Vitt pass complete to Trevis Graham Jr. for 13 yds to the TexSt 33

3rd & 2Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.60

Tyler Vitt pass incomplete

4th & 2Punt+1 yds

Seamus O'Kelly punt for 39 yds , Johnnie Lang Jr. returns for 1 yd to the ArkSt 29

4th & 2Punt+1 yds

Seamus O'Kelly punt for 39 yds , Johnnie Lang Jr. returns for 1 yd to the ArkSt 29

2nd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.51

Layne Hatcher pass incomplete

3rd & 9Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.11

Layne Hatcher pass complete to Corey Rucker for 3 yds to the ArkSt 33

4th & 6Punt0 yds

Ryan Hanson punt for 39 yds, downed at the TexSt 28

4th & 6Punt0 yds

Ryan Hanson punt for 39 yds, downed at the TexSt 28

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.69

Lincoln Pare run for 1 yd to the ArkSt 30

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.31

Layne Hatcher pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.11

Alan Lamar run for 1 yd to the ArkSt 8

3rd & 9Sack0 ydsPPA -0.07

Layne Hatcher sacked by Nicholas McCann and Sione Tupou for 0 yards to the ArkSt 1

4th & 16Punt+3 yds

Ryan Hanson punt for 46 yds , Rontavious Groves returns for 3 yds to the ArkSt 44

1st & 10Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +0.48

Tyler Vitt pass complete to Ashtyn Hawkins for 10 yds to the ArkSt 34 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.06

Calvin Hill run for 4 yds to the ArkSt 30

2nd & 6Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.54

Calvin Hill run for 1 yd to the ArkSt 29

3rd & 5Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.89

Tyler Vitt pass incomplete

4th & 5Field Goal Good+46 yds

Seth Keller 46 Yd Field Goal

1st & 10Penalty-10 yds

LANG, Johnnie rush up the middle for a gain of 1 yard to the ASU26 (REVELS, Jordan). PENALTY ASU Holding on HARRIS, JR., Andre enforced 10 yards from the ASU25 to the ASU15 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

1st & 20Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.02

Johnnie Lang Jr. run for 5 yds to the ArkSt 20

2nd & 15Rush+13 ydsPPA +0.85

Johnnie Lang Jr. run for 13 yds to the ArkSt 33

3rd & 2Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA +1.15

Layne Hatcher pass complete to Corey Rucker for 3 yds to the ArkSt 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+2 ydsPPA -0.64

Layne Hatcher pass complete to Johnnie Lang Jr. for 2 yds to the ArkSt 38

3rd & 18Rush+17 ydsPPA +1.01

Johnnie Lang Jr. run for 17 yds to the ArkSt 45

4th & 1Punt0 yds

Ryan Hanson punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Rontavious Groves at the TexSt 14

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.27

Jahmyl Jeter run for 2 yds to the TexSt 16

0th & 10End of Half0 yds

End of 2nd Quarter

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.45

Alan Lamar run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 27

2nd & 8Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +1.29

Layne Hatcher pass complete to Reed Tyler for 8 yds to the ArkSt 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.63

Alan Lamar run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 37

2nd & 8Rush+8 ydsPPA +1.60

Layne Hatcher run for 8 yds to the ArkSt 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+25 ydsPPA +1.46

Alan Lamar run for 25 yds to the TexSt 30 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+11 ydsPPA +0.21

Lincoln Pare run for 11 yds to the TexSt 19 for a 1ST down TEXAS STATE Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (Zion Childress) to the TexSt 10 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.29

Layne Hatcher pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.04

Lincoln Pare run for 5 yds to the TexSt 5

3rd & 5Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.29

Layne Hatcher pass incomplete

4th & 5Field Goal Good+22 yds

Blake Grupe 22 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Penalty-15 yds

TEXAS STATE Penalty, Block below the waist on HAWKINS, Ashtyn enforced (Ashtyn Hawkins) to the ArkSt 20 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.19

Caleb Twyford run for 6 yds to the ArkSt 14

2nd & 4Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.23

Tyler Vitt pass complete to Calvin Hill for 7 yds to the ArkSt 7 for a 1ST down

1st & 7Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.33

Calvin Hill run for 1 yd to the ArkSt 6

2nd & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.30

Tyler Vitt pass incomplete

3rd & 6Rushing Touchdown+6 ydsPPA +2.82

Calvin Hill run for 6 yds for a TD (Seth Keller KICK)

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.12

Layne Hatcher run for 4 yds to the ArkSt 31

2nd & 6Sack0 ydsPPA -0.71

Layne Hatcher sacked by London Harris for 0 yards to the ArkSt 23

3rd & 14Pass Reception-3 ydsPPA -0.12

Layne Hatcher pass complete to Johnnie Lang Jr. for a loss of 3 yards to the ArkSt 20

4th & 17Punt0 yds

Ryan Hanson punt for 67 yds, downed at the TexSt 13

1st & 10Sack0 ydsPPA -0.40

Tyler Vitt sacked by Kivon Bennett and Joe Ozougwu for 0 yards to the TexSt 10

2nd & 13Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.11

Jahmyl Jeter run for 7 yds to the TexSt 17

3rd & 6Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +1.35

Tyler Vitt pass complete to Trevis Graham Jr. for 12 yds to the TexSt 29 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception-1 ydsPPA -0.95

Tyler Vitt pass complete to Ashtyn Hawkins for a loss of 1 yard to the TexSt 28

2nd & 11Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.42

Jahmyl Jeter run for a loss of 1 yard to the TexSt 27

3rd & 12Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.15

Tyler Vitt pass incomplete

4th & 12Punt0 yds

Seamus O'Kelly punt for 33 yds, downed at the ArkSt 40

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.17

Alan Lamar run for 4 yds to the ArkSt 44

2nd & 6Pass Reception+17 ydsPPA +1.78

Layne Hatcher pass complete to Reagan Ealy for 17 yds to the TexSt 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.09

Alan Lamar run for 5 yds to the TexSt 34

2nd & 5Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.26

Alan Lamar run for 3 yds to the TexSt 31

3rd & 2Rush+3 ydsPPA +0.56

Alan Lamar run for 3 yds to the TexSt 28 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.51

Layne Hatcher pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Reception+20 ydsPPA +0.96

Layne Hatcher pass complete to Seydou Traore for 20 yds to the TexSt 8 for a 1ST down

1st & 8Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.42

Wyatt Begeal run for 7 yds to the TexSt 1

2nd & 1Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.64

Alan Lamar run for a loss of 1 yard to the TexSt 2

3rd & 2Sack0 ydsPPA -0.31

Layne Hatcher sacked by Brayden Stringer and Nicholas McCann for 0 yards to the TexSt 5

4th & 5Field Goal Good+22 yds

Blake Grupe 22 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.64

Calvin Hill run for 2 yds to the TexSt 38

2nd & 8Rush+8 ydsPPA +1.61

Calvin Hill run for 8 yds to the TexSt 46 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty-15 yds

VITT, Tyler pass to the left incomplete intended for HAWKINS, Ashtyn broken up by JONES, Leon at the ASU27. PENALTY TXS Pass Interference on HAWKINS, Ashtyn enforced 15 yards to the TXS31 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

1st & 25Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.21

Calvin Hill run for 7 yds to the TexSt 38

2nd & 18Rush+11 ydsPPA +0.99

Calvin Hill run for 11 yds to the TexSt 49

3rd & 7Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.51

Calvin Hill run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 49

4th & 5Punt0 yds

Seamus O'Kelly punt for 28 yds

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.59

Lincoln Pare run for no gain to the ArkSt 21

2nd & 10Pass Reception+2 ydsPPA -0.18

Layne Hatcher pass complete to Reed Tyler for 2 yds to the ArkSt 23

3rd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.18

Layne Hatcher pass incomplete

4th & 8Punt0 yds

Ryan Hanson punt for 36 yds , returns for no gain to the TexSt 41

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.68

Jahmyl Jeter run for 2 yds to the TexSt 43

2nd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.96

Tyler Vitt pass incomplete

3rd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.58

Tyler Vitt pass incomplete

4th & 8Punt0 yds

Seamus O'Kelly punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Johnnie Lang Jr. at the ArkSt 14

1st & 10Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.18

Layne Hatcher pass complete to Alan Lamar for 3 yds to the ArkSt 17

2nd & 7Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.05

Layne Hatcher pass complete to Alan Lamar for 4 yds to the ArkSt 21

3rd & 3Pass Reception+16 ydsPPA +1.83

Layne Hatcher pass complete to Corey Rucker for 16 yds to the ArkSt 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+34 ydsPPA +2.26

Alan Lamar run for 34 yds to the TexSt 29 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.41

Lincoln Pare run for 1 yd to the TexSt 28

2nd & 9Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.21

Layne Hatcher pass complete to Lincoln Pare for 3 yds to the TexSt 25

3rd & 6Sack0 ydsPPA -0.79

Layne Hatcher sacked by Jared Hopper for 0 yards to the TexSt 26

4th & 7Passing Touchdown+26 ydsPPA +4.39

Layne Hatcher pass complete to Corey Rucker for 26 yds for a TD

1st & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +1.35

Tyler Vitt run for 9 yds to the TexSt 48

2nd & 1Penalty-5 yds

TEXAS STATE Penalty, False Start (Dalton Cooper) to the TexSt 43

2nd & 6Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.16

Tyler Vitt run for 4 yds to the TexSt 47

3rd & 2Penalty-10 yds

QB Keeper VITT, Tyler rush to the left for a gain of 1 yard to the TXS48 (ALEXANDER, Elery). PENALTY TXS Holding on COOPER, Dalton enforced 10 yards from the TXS47 to the TXS37 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

3rd & 12Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.29

Tyler Vitt pass incomplete

4th & 12Punt+6 yds

Seamus O'Kelly punt for 32 yds , Johnnie Lang Jr. returns for 6 yds to the ArkSt 37

1st & 10Pass Reception+14 ydsPPA +1.29

Layne Hatcher pass complete to Dahu Green for 14 yds to the TexSt 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+10 ydsPPA +0.62

Layne Hatcher run for 10 yds to the TexSt 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.81

Layne Hatcher pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +0.82

Layne Hatcher pass complete to Dahu Green for 9 yds to the TexSt 30

3rd & 1Rush-1 ydsPPA -1.10

Lincoln Pare run for a loss of 1 yard to the TexSt 31

4th & 2Field Goal Missed+48 yds

Blake Grupe 48 yd FG MISSED

Situational Analysis

Texas State

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
100%
1 play
33%
21 plays
100%
1 play
2nd
25%
4 plays
33%
6 plays
67%
6 plays
3rd
50%
2 plays
67%
6 plays
0%
3 plays
0%
3 plays
4th
100%
1 play

Arkansas State

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
50%
32 plays
50%
2 plays
2nd
50%
4 plays
20%
5 plays
55%
11 plays
100%
3 plays
3rd
50%
6 plays
25%
4 plays
0%
4 plays
50%
2 plays
4th
100%
2 plays