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← Back to GamesSep 25, 2021Week 4
Conference Game

House Prediction

Model Margin

Ball State by 6.7

Home Win Probability

Ball State 74%

Market (consensus)

Ball State +4.5

Edge: Ball State +4.5 (11.2 pts)

fitted_v1 · Sep 25, 2021

Line Movement

No line movement to chart

Sportsbook snapshots publish once a line is posted for this game.

Team1Q2Q3Q4QFinal
ToledoToledo
770822
Ball StateBall State
630312

Scoring Timeline

Q1Q2Q3Q4014283-03-76-76-149-149-1712-20
Ball StateToledo

Drive Chart

Own 20Own 4050Opp 40Opp 20BSTOLBSTOLBSTOLBSTOLBSTOLBSTOLBSTOLBSTOLBSTOLBSTOLBSTOLBSFG847ydTD365ydPUNT628ydPUNT36ydFG1249ydTD369ydTO638ydDOWNS49ydFG519ydPUNT522ydPUNT521ydPUNT742ydEND1261ydTO636ydPUNT514ydFG1266ydPUNT3-9ydFG728ydFG945ydFG1185ydPUNT31ydPUNT621ydUncategorized0-1yd

Box Score

Team statistics comparing Toledo and Ball State
StatisticToledoBall State
Passing12-2021-36
Pass Yards172190
Rush Yards272122
Total Yards444312
Turnovers11
3rd Down4-127-17
Penalties7-617-55
Possession33:0326:57

Player Leaders

Player Leaders

Toledo
passing
Carter Bradley
10/18, 144 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
rushing
Dequan Finn
12 CAR, 106 YDS, 1 TD
receiving
Devin Maddox
2 REC, 75 YDS, 1 TD
defense
Ball State
passing
Drew Plitt
21/35, 190 YDS
rushing
Justin Hall
5 CAR, 64 YDS
receiving
Justin Hall
7 REC, 97 YDS
defense

Play-by-Play

1st & 10Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +1.03

Drew Plitt pass complete to Trevor Hohlt for 12 yds to the BalSt 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Sack-2 ydsPPA -1.40

Drew Plitt sacked by Terrance Taylor for a loss of 2 yards to the BalSt 35

2nd & 12Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.10

Will Jones run for 4 yds to the BalSt 39

3rd & 8Pass Reception+35 ydsPPA +3.82

Drew Plitt pass complete to Justin Hall for 35 yds to the Toled 26 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.04

Will Jones run for 4 yds to the Toled 22

2nd & 6Rush0 ydsPPA -0.50

Carson Steele run for no gain to the Toled 22

3rd & 6Penalty-10 yds

Plitt,Drew rush for 4 yards gain to the TOL18 (Hook,Maxen) PENALTY BSU Holding (Kaylor,Damon) 10 yards from TOL22 to TOL32. NO PLAY.

3rd & 16Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.17

Drew Plitt run for 4 yds to the Toled 28

4th & 12Field Goal Good+45 yds

Jacob Lewis 45 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Penalty-10 yds

TOLEDO Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Toled 31

1st & 14Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.65

Carter Bradley pass incomplete to Jerjuan Newton

2nd & 14Passing Touchdown+69 ydsPPA +6.79

Carter Bradley pass complete to Devin Maddox for 69 yds for a TD, (Thomas Cluckey KICK)

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.59

Will Jones run for 1 yd to the BalSt 26

2nd & 9Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.05

Drew Plitt pass complete to Yo'Heinz Tyler for 5 yds to the BalSt 31

3rd & 4Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +1.86

Drew Plitt pass complete to Justin Hall for 9 yds to the BalSt 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -1.12

Carson Steele run for no gain to the BalSt 40

2nd & 10Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.32

Drew Plitt pass complete to Trevor Hohlt for 3 yds to the BalSt 43

3rd & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.62

Drew Plitt pass incomplete to Jayshon Jackson

4th & 7Punt0 yds

Nathan Snyder punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Devin Maddox at the Toled 13

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.17

Bryant Koback run for 3 yds to the Toled 16

2nd & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.31

Carter Bradley pass incomplete to Bryce Mitchell

3rd & 7Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.06

Carter Bradley pass complete to Danzel McKinley-Lewis for 3 yds to the Toled 19

4th & 4Punt0 yds

Bailey Flint punt for 39 yds , returns for no gain to the BalSt 41 Justin Hall return for 1 yd to the BalSt 41

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +1.00

Justin Hall run for 8 yds to the BalSt 49

2nd & 2Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.24

Drew Plitt pass complete to Justin Hall for 7 yds to the Toled 44 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.30

Justin Hall run for 6 yds to the Toled 38

2nd & 4Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.74

Carson Steele run for 1 yd to the Toled 37

3rd & 3Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +1.05

Drew Plitt pass complete to Trevor Hohlt for 7 yds to the Toled 30 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.21

Carson Steele run for 6 yds to the Toled 24

2nd & 4Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.45

Carson Steele run for 1 yd to the Toled 23

3rd & 3Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.46

Drew Plitt pass complete to Jordan Williams for 5 yds to the Toled 18 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.35

Drew Plitt pass incomplete to Yo'Heinz Tyler

2nd & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.04

Will Jones run for 4 yds to the Toled 14

3rd & 6Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.05

Drew Plitt pass complete to Justin Hall for 4 yds to the Toled 10

4th & 2Field Goal Good+27 yds

Jacob Lewis 27 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +1.01

Dequan Finn run for 8 yds to the Toled 39

2nd & 2Sack-9 ydsPPA -2.46

Dequan Finn sacked by Jimmy Daw for a loss of 9 yards to the Toled 30

3rd & 11Rushing Touchdown+70 ydsPPA +7.05

Dequan Finn run for 70 yds for a TD, (Thomas Cluckey KICK)

1st & 10Kickoff Return (Offense)+17 yds

Thomas Cluckey kickoff for 57 yds , Justin Hall return for 17 yds to the BalSt 25

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.59

Carson Steele run for 1 yd to the BalSt 26

2nd & 9Rush0 ydsPPA -0.41

Carson Steele run for no gain to the BalSt 26

3rd & 9Pass Reception+14 ydsPPA +2.32

Drew Plitt pass complete to Cody Rudy for 14 yds to the BalSt 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.17

Drew Plitt run for 4 yds to the BalSt 44

2nd & 6Penalty+5 yds

Plitt,Drew pass incomplete to Hohlt,Trevor PENALTY TOL Pass Interference (Barrow,Jackson) 5 yards from BSU44 to BSU49, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -1.13

Will Jones run for no gain to the BalSt 49

2nd & 10Fumble Recovery (Opponent)+14 ydsPPA -1.95

Drew Plitt run for 14 yds to the Toled 22 Drew Plitt fumbled, forced by Nate Givhan, recovered by Toled Jonathan Jones

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.61

Carter Bradley pass incomplete to Isaiah Winstead

2nd & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.25

Jacquez Stuart run for 1 yd to the Toled 23

3rd & 9Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.23

Carter Bradley run for 8 yds to the Toled 31

4th & 1Rush0 ydsPPA -0.10

Bryant Koback run for no gain to the Toled 31

1st & 10Rush+15 ydsPPA +0.27

Justin Hall run for 15 yds to the Toled 16 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.18

Will Jones run for 2 yds to the Toled 18

2nd & 12Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.34

Will Jones run for 1 yd to the Toled 17

3rd & 11Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.67

Drew Plitt pass incomplete

4th & 11Penalty+5 yds

Chanove,Jake field goal attempt from 34 yards NO GOOD, clock 08:28 PENALTY TOL Offside (Mitchell,Quinyon) 5 yards from TOL17 to TOL12. NO PLAY.

4th & 6Field Goal Good+29 yds

Jake Chanove 29 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +0.84

Carter Bradley pass complete to Danzel McKinley-Lewis for 10 yds to the Toled 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +1.15

Carter Bradley pass complete to Bryant Koback for 12 yds to the Toled 47 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.41

Bryant Koback run for 3 yds to the 50 yard line

2nd & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.13

Carter Bradley pass incomplete to Bryce Mitchell

3rd & 7Sack-3 ydsPPA -1.19

Carter Bradley sacked for a loss of 3 yards to the Toled 47

4th & 10Punt0 yds

Bailey Flint punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Justin Hall at the BalSt 21

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.59

Drew Plitt pass incomplete to Jordan Williams

2nd & 10Pass Reception+30 ydsPPA +3.15

Drew Plitt pass complete to Justin Hall for 30 yds to the Toled 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.62

Carson Steele run for 2 yds to the BalSt 49

2nd & 12Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.93

Drew Plitt pass incomplete

3rd & 12Sack-7 ydsPPA -0.98

Drew Plitt sacked by Nate Givhan for a loss of 7 yards to the BalSt 42

4th & 19Punt0 yds

Nathan Snyder punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Devin Maddox at the Toled 13

1st & 10Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.06

Carter Bradley pass complete to Isaiah Winstead for 4 yds to the Toled 17

2nd & 6Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.54

Carter Bradley pass complete to Devin Maddox for 6 yds to the Toled 23 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+20 ydsPPA +1.75

Carter Bradley pass complete to Isaiah Winstead for 20 yds to the Toled 43 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +0.85

Carter Bradley pass complete to Isaiah Winstead for 10 yds to the BalSt 47 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+2 ydsPPA -0.58

Carter Bradley pass complete to Bryce Mitchell for 2 yds to the BalSt 45

2nd & 8Pass Incompletion+11 ydsPPA +1.26

Carter Bradley pass incomplete pass complete to for 11 yds to the BalSt 45

3rd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.94

Carter Bradley pass incomplete to Matt Landers

4th & 8Punt0 yds

Bailey Flint punt for 20 yds

1st & 10Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.33

Drew Plitt pass complete to Will Jones for 6 yds to the BalSt 31

2nd & 4Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.60

Drew Plitt pass complete to Jayshon Jackson for 5 yds to the BalSt 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +1.04

Drew Plitt pass complete to Justin Hall for 8 yds to the BalSt 44

2nd & 2Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.27

Drew Plitt pass complete to Jordan Williams for 6 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty+5 yds

Plitt,Drew rush for 5 yards gain to the TOL45, End Of Play PENALTY TOL Illegal Substitution 5 yards from TOL50 to TOL45. NO PLAY.

1st & 5Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.08

Drew Plitt pass incomplete to Cody Rudy

2nd & 5Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.14

Drew Plitt pass incomplete to Cody Rudy

3rd & 5Rush+15 ydsPPA +2.07

Drew Plitt run for 15 yds to the Toled 30 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.30

Will Jones run for 2 yds to the Toled 28

2nd & 8Sack-7 ydsPPA -2.06

Drew Plitt sacked by Jamal Hines for a loss of 7 yards to the Toled 35

3rd & 15Pass Reception+21 ydsPPA +2.63

Drew Plitt pass complete to Jayshon Jackson for 21 yds to the Toled 14 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.31

Drew Plitt pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.34

Drew Plitt pass incomplete

0th & 10End of Half0 yds

End of 2nd Quarter

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.60

Bryant Koback run for 7 yds to the Toled 32

2nd & 3Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.72

Carter Bradley pass complete to Bryant Koback for 8 yds to the Toled 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.40

Bryant Koback run for 6 yds to the Toled 46

2nd & 4Rush+13 ydsPPA +1.12

Bryant Koback run for 13 yds to the BalSt 41 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.47

Bryant Koback run for 2 yds to the BalSt 39

2nd & 8Interception+15 ydsPPA -3.29

Carter Bradley pass intercepted BALL ST Penalty, UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Jaylin Thomas) to the BalSt 38

1st & 10Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +1.37

Drew Plitt pass complete to Cody Rudy for 9 yds to the BalSt 47

2nd & 1Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.18

Drew Plitt pass complete to Justin Hall for 4 yds to the Toled 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.86

Justin Hall run for 1 yd to the Toled 48

2nd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.08

Drew Plitt pass incomplete to Jayshon Jackson

3rd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.81

Drew Plitt pass incomplete to Yo'Heinz Tyler

4th & 9Punt0 yds

Nathan Snyder punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Devin Maddox at the Toled 11

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.31

Bryant Koback run for 1 yd to the Toled 10

2nd & 11Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.02

Dequan Finn pass complete to Bryant Koback for 5 yds to the Toled 15

3rd & 6Penalty+5 yds

Finn,Dequan pass incomplete to Winstead,Isaiah PENALTY BSU Pass Interference (Anderson,Brett) 5 yards from TOL15 to TOL20, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.09

Dequan Finn run for 5 yds to the Toled 25

2nd & 5Pass Reception+23 ydsPPA +2.29

Dequan Finn pass complete to Bryce Mitchell for 23 yds to the Toled 48 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.66

Bryant Koback run for 2 yds to the 50 yard line

2nd & 8Rush+12 ydsPPA +1.57

Bryce Mitchell run for 12 yds to the BalSt 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.25

Bryant Koback run for 3 yds to the BalSt 35

2nd & 7Rush+13 ydsPPA +0.69

Bryant Koback run for 13 yds to the BalSt 22 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.22

Dequan Finn run for 2 yds to the BalSt 24

2nd & 12Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.24

Dequan Finn run for 7 yds to the BalSt 17

3rd & 5Sack-6 ydsPPA -1.56

Dequan Finn sacked by Bryce Cosby for a loss of 6 yards to the BalSt 23

4th & 11Field Goal Missed+41 yds

Thomas Cluckey 41 yd FG MISSED

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.09

Carson Steele run for 5 yds to the BalSt 28

2nd & 5Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.69

Drew Plitt pass complete to Porter Haught for 5 yds to the BalSt 23

3rd & 10Sack-9 ydsPPA -0.23

Drew Plitt sacked for a loss of 9 yards to the BalSt 14

4th & 19Punt0 yds

Nathan Snyder punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Devin Maddox at the Toled 47

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.91

Bryant Koback run for 1 yd to the Toled 48

2nd & 9Penalty+10 yds

Bradley,Carter pass incomplete to Mitchell,Bryce PENALTY BSU Holding (Uzodinma,Amechi) 10 yards from TOL48 to BSU42, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.09

Bryant Koback run for 5 yds to the BalSt 37

2nd & 5Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.39

Carter Bradley run for 7 yds to the BalSt 30 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.42

Bryant Koback run for 1 yd to the BalSt 29

2nd & 9Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.08

Bryant Koback run for 4 yds to the BalSt 25

3rd & 5Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.77

Carter Bradley pass incomplete to Devin Maddox

4th & 5Field Goal Good+43 yds

Thomas Cluckey 43 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.09

Will Jones run for 5 yds to the BalSt 30

2nd & 5Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.31

Will Jones run for 3 yds to the BalSt 33

3rd & 2Penalty-5 yds

PENALTY BSU False Start (Stewart,Corey) 5 yards from BSU33 to BSU28. NO PLAY.

3rd & 7Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.13

Drew Plitt pass complete to Will Jones for 6 yds to the BalSt 34

4th & 1Rush+2 ydsPPA +1.65

Drew Plitt run for 2 yds to the BalSt 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+34 ydsPPA +2.33

Justin Hall run for 34 yds to the Toled 30 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.56

Drew Plitt pass incomplete to Cody Rudy

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.76

Drew Plitt pass incomplete to Cody Rudy

3rd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.99

Drew Plitt pass incomplete to Cody Rudy

4th & 10Field Goal Good+47 yds

Jacob Lewis 47 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Kickoff Return (Offense)+21 yds

Jonathan Hagee kickoff for 64 yds , Bryce Mitchell return for 21 yds to the Toled 11

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.60

Bryant Koback run for 8 yds to the Toled 19

2nd & 2Rush0 ydsPPA -0.70

Jacquez Stuart run for no gain to the Toled 19

3rd & 2Rush+46 ydsPPA +3.89

Jacquez Stuart run for 46 yds to the BalSt 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+10 ydsPPA +0.27

Jacquez Stuart run for 10 yds to the BalSt 25 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.35

Jacquez Stuart run for 1 yd to the BalSt 24

2nd & 9Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.05

Dequan Finn run for 5 yds to the BalSt 19

3rd & 4Rush+15 ydsPPA +1.31

Dequan Finn run for 15 yds to the BalSt 4 for a 1ST down

1st & 4Rush0 ydsPPA -0.65

Bryant Koback run for no gain to the BalSt 4

2nd & 4Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.21

Dequan Finn run for 2 yds to the BalSt 2

3rd & 2Rush+2 yds

Bryant Koback run for 2 yds to the BalSt 4

4th & 4Field Goal Good+22 yds

Thomas Cluckey 22 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Kickoff Return (Offense)+14 yds

Thomas Cluckey kickoff for 60 yds , Justin Hall return for 14 yds to the BalSt 19

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.35

Carson Steele run for 2 yds to the BalSt 17

2nd & 12Penalty-9 yds

BALL ST Penalty, Sideline Inteference (-9 Yards) to the BalSt 8

3rd & 21Rush+12 ydsPPA +0.07

Drew Plitt run for 12 yds to the BalSt 20

4th & 9Punt0 yds

Nathan Snyder punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Devin Maddox at the Toled 40

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.43

Bryant Koback run for 3 yds to the Toled 43

2nd & 7Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.63

Bryant Koback run for 2 yds to the Toled 45

3rd & 5Rush+9 ydsPPA +2.27

Dequan Finn run for 9 yds to the BalSt 46 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.57

Bryant Koback run for 2 yds to the BalSt 44

2nd & 8Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.62

Dequan Finn run for 2 yds to the BalSt 42

3rd & 6Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.40

Bryant Koback run for 3 yds to the BalSt 39

4th & 3Punt+1 yds

Bailey Flint punt for 38 yds , Justin Hall returns for 1 yd to the BalSt 2

1st & 10Penalty0 yds

PENALTY BSU False Start (Haught,Porter) 1 yard from BSU02 to BSU01. NO PLAY.

1st & 11Safety0 ydsPPA -1.95

Plitt,Drew pass complete to Tyler,Yo'Heinz for 3 yards to the BSU04, End Of Play. Toledo SAFETY, clock 00:00 PENALTY BSU Illegal Forward Pass. NO PLAY. for a SAFETY

Situational Analysis

Toledo

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
0%
1 play
42%
26 plays
0%
1 play
2nd
33%
3 plays
80%
5 plays
36%
11 plays
100%
3 plays
3rd
100%
1 play
40%
5 plays
25%
4 plays
100%
1 play
4th
0%
1 play

Ball State

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
0%
1 play
41%
27 plays
0%
1 play
2nd
67%
3 plays
29%
7 plays
20%
10 plays
0%
3 plays
3rd
100%
2 plays
67%
3 plays
43%
7 plays
40%
5 plays
4th
100%
1 play