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← Back to GamesNov 26, 2021Week 13
Conference Game

House Prediction

Model Margin

UCF by 27.3

Home Win Probability

UCF 94%

Market (consensus)

UCF -17

Edge: UCF -17 (10.3 pts)

fitted_v1 · Nov 26, 2021

Line Movement

No line movement to chart

Sportsbook snapshots publish once a line is posted for this game.

Team1Q2Q3Q4QFinal
South FloridaSouth Florida
706013
UCFUCF
770317

Scoring Timeline

Q1Q2Q3Q40147-714-1014-1317-13
UCFSouth Florida

Drive Chart

Own 20Own 4050Opp 40Opp 20UCFSFUCFSFUCFSFUCFSFUCFSFUCFSFSFUCFSFUCFSFUCFSFUCFSFMISS1057ydPUNT6-1ydTD863ydTD1272ydPUNT3-1ydPUNT33ydMISS527ydMISS1243ydPUNT31ydPUNT39ydTD627ydEND13ydFG1252ydPUNT31ydFG938ydPUNT35ydPUNT3-4ydFG1061ydPUNT522ydPUNT639ydEND1180yd

Box Score

Team statistics comparing South Florida and UCF
StatisticSouth FloridaUCF
Passing18-3015-27
Pass Yards222112
Rush Yards90173
Total Yards312285
Turnovers00
3rd Down6-165-13
Penalties8-457-50
Possession35:0924:51

Player Leaders

Player Leaders

South Florida
passing
Timmy McClain
18/29, 222 YDS
rushing
Jaren Mangham
21 CAR, 93 YDS
receiving
Xavier Weaver
4 REC, 75 YDS
defense
UCF
passing
Mikey Keene
14/26, 115 YDS, 1 TD
rushing
Johnny Richardson
8 CAR, 94 YDS
receiving
Ryan O'Keefe
5 REC, 45 YDS
defense

Play-by-Play

1st & 10Pass Reception+16 ydsPPA +1.42

Mikey Keene pass complete to Ryan O'Keefe for 16 yds to the UCF 41 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.70

Mikey Keene pass complete to Ryan O'Keefe for 7 yds to the UCF 48

2nd & 3Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.29

Mikey Keene pass incomplete

3rd & 3Rush+7 ydsPPA +1.78

Mark-Antony Richards run for 7 yds to the SFla 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.77

Mark-Antony Richards run for 1 yd to the SFla 44

2nd & 9Pass Reception+20 ydsPPA +1.57

Mikey Keene pass complete to Jaylon Robinson for 20 yds to the SFla 24 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.19

Trillion Coles run for 6 yds to the SFla 18

2nd & 4Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.48

Mikey Keene pass incomplete

3rd & 4Rush0 ydsPPA -0.54

Amari Johnson run for no gain to the SFla 18

4th & 4Field Goal Missed+35 yds

Daniel Obarski 35 yd FG MISSED

1st & 10Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +1.11

Timmy McClain pass complete to Omarion Dollison for 9 yds to the SFla 29

2nd & 1Rush0 ydsPPA -1.12

Jaren Mangham run for no gain to the SFla 29

3rd & 1Rush+7 ydsPPA +1.24

Timmy McClain run for 7 yds to the SFla 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.04

Timmy McClain pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.63

Timmy McClain pass incomplete

4th & 27Punt0 yds

Andrew Stokes punt for 44 yds, downed at the UCF 37

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.66

Johnny Richardson run for 2 yds to the UCF 39

2nd & 8Rush+15 ydsPPA +2.16

Johnny Richardson run for 15 yds to the SFla 46 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+17 ydsPPA +0.75

Mikey Keene pass complete to Titus Mokiao-Atimalala for 17 yds to the SFla 29 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.41

Johnny Richardson run for 1 yd to the SFla 28

2nd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.68

Mikey Keene pass incomplete

3rd & 9Pass Reception+23 ydsPPA +1.99

Mikey Keene pass complete to Johnny Richardson for 23 yds to the SFla 5 for a 1ST down

1st & 5Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.33

Mark-Antony Richards run for 2 yds to the SFla 3

2nd & 3Rushing Touchdown+3 ydsPPA +2.21

Parker Navarro run for 3 yds for a TD, (Daniel Obarski KICK)

0th & 0Kickoff Return (Offense)+26 yds

Daniel Obarski kickoff for 63 yds , Brian Battie return for 26 yds to the SFla 28

1st & 10Rush-2 ydsPPA -1.01

Timmy McClain run for a loss of 2 yards to the SFla 26

2nd & 12Rush-3 ydsPPA -0.40

Timmy McClain run for a loss of 3 yards to the SFla 23

3rd & 15Penalty0 yds

MCCLAIN, Timmy pass to the right complete for -5 yards to WEAVER, Xavier caught at the USF19 and advanced to the USF18 (BULLARD, Quadric). PENALTY UCF Offsides on BRYANT, Big Kat declined UCF Personal Foul on BROWDER, Charlie enforced 15 yards from the USF23 to the USF38 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

1st & 10Pass Reception+14 ydsPPA +1.27

Timmy McClain pass complete to Jimmy Horn Jr. for 14 yds to the UCF 48 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty-5 yds

MCCLAIN, Timmy pass to the left complete for 18 yards to WEAVER, Xavier caught at the UCF32 and advanced to the UCF30 (THORNTON, Corey). PENALTY USF Ineligible Receiver Downfield on Pass on JENNINGS, Donovan enforced 5 yards from the UCF48 to the USF47 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

1st & 15Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.03

Timmy McClain pass incomplete

2nd & 15Rush+12 ydsPPA +1.66

Brian Battie run for 12 yds to the UCF 41

3rd & 3Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.89

Timmy McClain run for 1 yd to the UCF 40

4th & 2Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA +2.08

Timmy McClain pass complete to Mitchell Brinkman for 4 yds to the UCF 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.72

Timmy McClain pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+11 ydsPPA +1.03

Jaren Mangham run for 11 yds to the UCF 25 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+15 ydsPPA +0.19

Jaren Mangham run for 15 yds to the UCF 10 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.08

Jaren Mangham run for 5 yds to the UCF 5

2nd & 5Rushing Touchdown+5 ydsPPA +2.44

Timmy McClain run for 5 yds for a TD, (Spencer Shrader KICK)

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.70

Mikey Keene pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.39

Mark-Antony Richards run for a loss of 1 yard to the UCF 24

3rd & 11Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.13

Mikey Keene pass incomplete

4th & 11Punt+13 yds

Andrew Osteen punt for 56 yds , Xavier Weaver returns for 13 yds to the SFla 18

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.22

Kelley Joiner run for 3 yds to the SFla 21

2nd & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.39

Timmy McClain pass incomplete

3rd & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.18

Timmy McClain pass incomplete

4th & 7Punt0 yds

Andrew Stokes punt for 33 yds, downed at the UCF 46

1st & 10Rush+33 ydsPPA +1.55

Johnny Richardson run for 33 yds to the SFla 21 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.30

Johnny Richardson run for 1 yd to the SFla 20

2nd & 9Pass Reception-3 ydsPPA -0.87

Ryan O'Keefe pass complete to Mikey Keene for a loss of 3 yards to the SFla 23

3rd & 12Pass Reception-4 ydsPPA -1.72

Mikey Keene pass complete to Jaylon Robinson for a loss of 4 yards to the SFla 27

4th & 16Field Goal Missed+45 yds

Daniel Obarski 45 yd FG MISSED

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.35

Jaren Mangham run for 6 yds to the SFla 33

2nd & 4Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.83

Timmy McClain pass complete to Omarion Dollison for 7 yds to the SFla 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.40

Timmy McClain run for 6 yds to the SFla 46

2nd & 4Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +0.94

Timmy McClain pass complete to Mitchell Brinkman for 10 yds to the UCF 44 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty0 yds

MCCLAIN, Timmy pass to the left incomplete intended for HORN JR., Jimmy thrown to the UCF33; QB hurried by MORRIS-BRASH, Tre'mon. PENALTY USF Ineligible Receiver Downfield on Pass on JENNINGS, Donovan UCF Personal Foul on JEAN-BAPTISTE, Jeremiah , Offsetting penalties [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

1st & 10Sack0 ydsPPA -0.97

Timmy McClain sacked by Big Kat Bryant for 0 yards to the UCF 49

2nd & 15Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.54

Jaren Mangham run for 2 yds to the UCF 47

3rd & 13Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +1.11

Timmy McClain pass complete to Yusuf Terry for 10 yds to the UCF 37

4th & 3Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +2.24

Timmy McClain pass complete to Chris Carter for 12 yds to the UCF 25 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.14

Kelley Joiner run for 3 yds to the UCF 22

2nd & 7Rush-2 ydsPPA -0.77

Timmy McClain run for a loss of 2 yards to the UCF 24

3rd & 9Rush-6 ydsPPA -2.08

Brian Battie run for a loss of 6 yards to the UCF 30

4th & 15Field Goal Missed+48 yds

Spencer Shrader 48 yd FG MISSED

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.72

Mark-Antony Richards run for 1 yd to the UCF 31

2nd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.53

Mikey Keene pass incomplete

3rd & 9Penalty-5 yds

UCF Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the UCF 26

3rd & 14Penalty+5 yds

SOUTH FLORIDA Penalty, Offsides (5 Yards) to the UCF 31

3rd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.26

Mikey Keene pass incomplete

4th & 9Punt0 yds

Andrew Osteen punt for 44 yds , Xavier Weaver returns for no gain to the SFla 25

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.11

Jaren Mangham run for 4 yds to the SFla 29

2nd & 6Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.11

Jaren Mangham run for 4 yds to the SFla 33

3rd & 2Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.50

Jaren Mangham run for 1 yd to the SFla 34

4th & 1Punt+39 yds

Andrew Stokes punt for 32 yds , Titus Mokiao-Atimalala returns for 39 yds to the SFla 27

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.26

Mark-Antony Richards run for 2 yds to the SFla 25

2nd & 8Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.06

Mark-Antony Richards run for 4 yds to the SFla 21

3rd & 4Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +0.64

Mikey Keene pass complete to Ryan O'Keefe for 12 yds to the SFla 9 for a 1ST down

1st & 9Pass Reception+2 ydsPPA -0.18

Mikey Keene pass complete to Johnny Richardson for 2 yds to the SFla 7

2nd & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.28

Mikey Keene pass incomplete

3rd & 7Passing Touchdown+7 ydsPPA +2.88

Mikey Keene pass complete to Brandon Johnson for 7 yds for a TD, (Daniel Obarski KICK)

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.43

Jaren Mangham run for 3 yds to the SFla 42

0th & 10End of Half0 yds

End of 2nd Quarter

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.91

Jaren Mangham run for 8 yds to the SFla 33

2nd & 2Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.93

Jaren Mangham run for 1 yd to the SFla 34

3rd & 1Rush+1 ydsPPA +0.86

Jaren Mangham run for 1 yd to the SFla 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+17 ydsPPA +1.56

Timmy McClain pass complete to Xavier Weaver for 17 yds to the UCF 48 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception0 ydsPPA -1.07

Timmy McClain pass complete to Omarion Dollison for no gain to the UCF 48

2nd & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.80

Timmy McClain run for 8 yds to the UCF 40

3rd & 2Rush+2 ydsPPA +0.86

Jaren Mangham run for 2 yds to the UCF 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+13 ydsPPA +0.39

Timmy McClain pass complete to Xavier Weaver for 13 yds to the UCF 25 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.08

Jaren Mangham run for 5 yds to the UCF 20

2nd & 5Penalty-5 yds

SOUTH FLORIDA Penalty, False Start (Yusuf Terry) to the UCF 25

2nd & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.32

Jaren Mangham run for 2 yds to the UCF 23

3rd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.77

Timmy McClain pass incomplete

4th & 8Field Goal Good+41 yds

Spencer Shrader 41 yd FG GOOD

0th & 0Kickoff Return (Offense)+29 yds

Spencer Shrader kickoff for 65 yds , Ryan O'Keefe return for 29 yds to the UCF 16

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.39

Johnny Richardson run for 1 yd to the UCF 17

2nd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.25

Mikey Keene pass incomplete

3rd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.11

Mikey Keene pass incomplete

4th & 9Punt0 yds

Andrew Osteen punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Xavier Weaver at the SFla 43

1st & 10Pass Reception+1 ydsPPA -0.93

Timmy McClain pass complete to Mitchell Brinkman for 1 yd to the SFla 44

2nd & 9Pass Reception+25 ydsPPA +2.55

Timmy McClain pass complete to Jimmy Horn Jr. for 25 yds to the UCF 31 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.31

Kelley Joiner run for 2 yds to the UCF 29

2nd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.70

Timmy McClain pass incomplete

3rd & 8Rush+18 ydsPPA +1.33

Jaren Mangham run for 18 yds to the UCF 11 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.18

Timmy McClain run for 6 yds to the UCF 5

2nd & 4Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.21

Jaren Mangham run for 2 yds to the UCF 3

3rd & 2Penalty-5 yds

SOUTH FLORIDA Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the UCF 8

3rd & 7Sack0 ydsPPA -0.34

Timmy McClain sacked by Divaad Wilson for 0 yards to the UCF 19

4th & 18Field Goal Good+36 yds

Spencer Shrader 36 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.30

Mikey Keene pass complete to Mark-Antony Richards for 3 yds to the UCF 28

2nd & 7Rush-2 ydsPPA -0.70

Mark-Antony Richards run for a loss of 2 yards to the UCF 26

3rd & 9Penalty-5 yds

UCF Penalty, False Start (Jaylon Robinson) to the UCF 21

3rd & 14Rush+9 ydsPPA +0.16

Mark-Antony Richards run for 9 yds to the UCF 30

4th & 5Punt0 yds

Andrew Osteen punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Xavier Weaver at the SFla 31

1st & 10Pass Reception+2 ydsPPA -0.57

Timmy McClain pass complete to Yusuf Terry for 2 yds to the SFla 33

2nd & 8Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.74

Jaren Mangham run for a loss of 1 yard to the SFla 32

3rd & 9Fumble Recovery (Own)-5 ydsPPA -0.41

Timmy McClain run for a loss of 5 yards to the SFla 27 fumbled, recovered by SFla Kelley Joiner

4th & 14Punt0 yds

Andrew Stokes punt for 48 yds

1st & 10Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.30

Mikey Keene pass complete to Ryan O'Keefe for 3 yds to the UCF 28

2nd & 7Rush+26 ydsPPA +2.83

Mark-Antony Richards run for 26 yds to the SFla 46 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.10

Mark-Antony Richards run for 5 yds to the SFla 41

2nd & 5Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.54

Mark-Antony Richards run for 8 yds to the SFla 33 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+2 ydsPPA -0.34

Mikey Keene pass complete to Johnny Richardson for 2 yds to the SFla 31

2nd & 8Rush+15 ydsPPA +0.67

Mark-Antony Richards run for 15 yds to the SFla 16 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.31

Mikey Keene pass complete to Ryan O'Keefe for 7 yds to the SFla 9

2nd & 3Rush-5 ydsPPA -0.83

Mikey Keene run for a loss of 5 yards to the SFla 14

3rd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.50

Mikey Keene pass incomplete

4th & 8Field Goal Good+32 yds

Daniel Obarski 32 yd FG GOOD

0th & 0Kickoff Return (Offense)+27 yds

Daniel Obarski kickoff for 63 yds , Brian Battie return for 27 yds to the SFla 29

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.34

Jaren Mangham run for 3 yds to the SFla 32

2nd & 7Pass Reception+16 ydsPPA +2.11

Timmy McClain pass complete to Jimmy Horn Jr. for 16 yds to the SFla 48 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.14

Timmy McClain pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.58

Timmy McClain pass complete to Mitchell Brinkman for 7 yds to the UCF 45

3rd & 3Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.90

Jaren Mangham run for 1 yd to the UCF 44

4th & 2Penalty-5 yds

SOUTH FLORIDA Penalty, False Start (Jimmy Horn Jr.) to the UCF 49

4th & 7Punt0 yds

Andrew Stokes punt for 24 yds

1st & 10Rush-4 ydsPPA -1.02

Mark-Antony Richards run for a loss of 4 yards to the UCF 21

2nd & 14Pass Reception0 ydsPPA -0.18

Mikey Keene pass complete to Johnny Richardson for no gain to the UCF 21

3rd & 14Rush+42 ydsPPA +4.22

Johnny Richardson run for 42 yds to the SFla 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.94

Johnny Richardson run for a loss of 1 yard to the SFla 38

2nd & 11Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.56

Ryan O'Keefe run for 2 yds to the SFla 36

3rd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.03

Mikey Keene pass incomplete

4th & 9Punt0 yds

Andrew Osteen punt for 25 yds, downed at the SFla 11

1st & 10Penalty+5 yds

UCF Penalty, Offsides (Big Kat Bryant) to the SFla 16

1st & 5Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA -0.20

Timmy McClain pass complete to Xavier Weaver for 10 yds to the SFla 26 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Sack0 ydsPPA -0.73

Timmy McClain sacked by Ricky Barber for 0 yards to the SFla 18

2nd & 18Penalty+5 yds

MCCLAIN, Timmy pass to the left intercepted by WILSON, Divaad at the USF47. Wilson return for 11 yards to the USF36 (WILLIS, Holden). PENALTY UCF Offsides on BRYANT, Big Kat enforced 5 yards from the USF18 to the USF23 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

2nd & 13Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.22

Timmy McClain pass incomplete

3rd & 13Pass Reception+30 ydsPPA +3.62

Timmy McClain pass complete to Jaren Mangham for 30 yds to the UCF 47 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.05

Timmy McClain pass incomplete

2nd & 10Penalty-5 yds

SOUTH FLORIDA Penalty, Delay Of Game (Timmy McClain) to the SFla 48

2nd & 15Pass Reception+35 ydsPPA +3.19

Timmy McClain pass complete to Xavier Weaver for 35 yds to the UCF 17 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Sack0 ydsPPA -0.34

Timmy McClain sacked by William Wells for 0 yards to the UCF 31

2nd & 24Penalty+5 yds

UCF Penalty, Offsides (Ricky Barber) to the UCF 26

2nd & 19Rush+9 ydsPPA +0.55

Timmy McClain run for 9 yds to the UCF 17

3rd & 10Rush+14 ydsPPA +1.86

Timmy McClain run for 14 yds to the UCF 3 for a 1ST down

1st & 3Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.75

Timmy McClain pass incomplete

2nd & 3Sack0 ydsPPA -0.41

Timmy McClain sacked by Tre'mon Morris-Brash for 0 yards to the UCF 9

Situational Analysis

South Florida

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
0%
1 play
0%
1 play
39%
28 plays
0%
1 play
2nd
0%
3 plays
60%
5 plays
45%
11 plays
50%
6 plays
3rd
50%
6 plays
29%
7 plays
100%
2 plays
4th
100%
2 plays

UCF

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
0%
1 play
33%
21 plays
2nd
33%
3 plays
50%
2 plays
33%
12 plays
0%
2 plays
3rd
100%
1 play
50%
2 plays
33%
6 plays
50%
4 plays
4th