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← Back to GamesNov 20, 2021Week 12
Conference Game

House Prediction

Model Margin

East Carolina by 11.6

Home Win Probability

Navy 24%

Market (consensus)

Navy +3.5

Edge: East Carolina -3.5 (8.1 pts)

fitted_v1 · Nov 20, 2021

Line Movement

No line movement to chart

Sportsbook snapshots publish once a line is posted for this game.

Team1Q2Q3Q4QFinal
East CarolinaEast Carolina
141001438
NavyNavy
71401435

Scoring Timeline

Q1Q2Q3Q401428427-77-1414-1414-1721-2428-2735-3535-38
NavyEast Carolina

Drive Chart

Own 20Own 4050Opp 40Opp 20ECNAVECNAVECNAVECNAVNAVECNAVECNAVECNAVECNAVECTD675ydTD1078ydTD778ydTD1175ydFG1258ydTD770ydTD785ydEND16ydPUNT824ydDOWNS1378ydPUNT35ydPUNT35ydTD190ydFG1158ydTD00ydTD770ydPUNT739ydFG444yd

Box Score

Team statistics comparing East Carolina and Navy
StatisticEast CarolinaNavy
Passing27-324-4
Pass Yards40537
Rush Yards158345
Total Yards563382
Turnovers00
3rd Down6-145-8
Penalties6-504-33
Possession32:4027:20

Player Leaders

Player Leaders

East Carolina
passing
Holton Ahlers
27/32, 405 YDS, 3 TD
rushing
Keaton Mitchell
18 CAR, 94 YDS, 1 TD
receiving
Tyler Snead
5 REC, 137 YDS, 2 TD
defense
Navy
passing
Tai Lavatai
4/4, 37 YDS, 2 TD
rushing
Carlinos Acie
6 CAR, 155 YDS, 1 TD
receiving
Mychal Cooper
2 REC, 31 YDS, 1 TD
defense

Play-by-Play

1st & 10Rush+23 ydsPPA +2.07

Keaton Mitchell run for 23 yds to the ECaro 48 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +1.15

Keaton Mitchell run for 9 yds to the Navy 43

2nd & 1Rush+7 ydsPPA -0.15

Keaton Mitchell run for 7 yds to the Navy 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+20 ydsPPA +0.44

Holton Ahlers pass complete to Ryan Jones for 20 yds to the Navy 16 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.18

Holton Ahlers pass complete to Ryan Jones for 6 yds to the Navy 10

2nd & 4Rushing Touchdown+10 ydsPPA +2.39

Keaton Mitchell run for 10 yds for a TD (Owen Daffer KICK)

1st & 10Rush+14 ydsPPA +1.12

Carlinos Acie run for 14 yds to the Navy 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.85

James Harris II run for 1 yd to the Navy 37

2nd & 9Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.80

James Harris II run for 8 yds to the Navy 45

3rd & 1Rush+8 ydsPPA +1.59

James Harris II run for 8 yds to the ECaro 47 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.77

Tai Lavatai run for 8 yds to the ECaro 39

2nd & 2Rush+6 ydsPPA -0.06

Isaac Ruoss run for 6 yds to the ECaro 33 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+27 ydsPPA +0.85

Tai Lavatai pass complete to Mychal Cooper for 27 yds to the ECaro 6 for a 1ST down

1st & 6Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.39

Carlinos Acie run for 1 yd to the ECaro 5

2nd & 5Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.26

Tai Lavatai run for 1 yd to the ECaro 4

3rd & 4Passing Touchdown+4 ydsPPA +2.70

Tai Lavatai pass complete to Mychal Cooper for 4 yds for a TD (Bijan Nichols KICK)

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.56

Rahjai Harris run for 7 yds to the ECaro 29

2nd & 3Rush-3 ydsPPA -1.22

Rahjai Harris run for a loss of 3 yards to the ECaro 26

3rd & 6Pass Reception+24 ydsPPA +3.10

Holton Ahlers pass complete to Audie Omotosho for 24 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty-5 yds

EAST CAROLINA Penalty, false start (C.J. Johnson) to the ECaro 45

1st & 15Rush0 ydsPPA -1.00

Rahjai Harris run for no gain to the ECaro 45

2nd & 15Rush+13 ydsPPA +1.89

Holton Ahlers run for 13 yds to the Navy 42

3rd & 2Rush+2 ydsPPA +0.94

Rahjai Harris run for 2 yds to the Navy 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Passing Touchdown+40 ydsPPA +3.19

Holton Ahlers pass complete to Tyler Snead for 40 yds for a TD (Owen Daffer KICK)

1st & 10Fumble Recovery (Own)-1 ydsPPA -0.80

Tai Lavatai run for a loss of 1 yard to the Navy 29 Tai Lavatai fumbled, recovered by Navy Isaac Ruoss

2nd & 6Rush+17 ydsPPA +2.01

Carlinos Acie run for 17 yds to the Navy 46 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty-5 yds

NAVY Penalty, illegal shift (-5 Yards) to the Navy 41

1st & 15Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.16

Tai Lavatai run for 4 yds to the Navy 45

2nd & 11Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.80

Tai Lavatai run for 8 yds to the ECaro 47

3rd & 3Rush+3 ydsPPA +1.36

Isaac Ruoss run for 3 yds to the ECaro 44 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+12 ydsPPA +0.54

Tai Lavatai run for 12 yds to the ECaro 32 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.32

Isaac Ruoss run for 2 yds to the ECaro 30

2nd & 8Rush+20 ydsPPA +0.68

Kai Puailoa-Rojas run for 20 yds to the ECaro 10 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.09

James Harris II run for 3 yds to the ECaro 7

2nd & 7Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.09

Tai Lavatai run for 3 yds to the ECaro 4

3rd & 4Passing Touchdown+4 ydsPPA +2.70

Tai Lavatai pass complete to Chance Warren for 4 yds for a TD (Bijan Nichols KICK)

1st & 10Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +0.97

Holton Ahlers pass complete to Keaton Mitchell for 12 yds to the ECaro 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +1.38

Keaton Mitchell run for 9 yds to the ECaro 44

2nd & 1Rush-7 ydsPPA -2.79

Keaton Mitchell run for 3 yds to the ECaro 47 EAST CAROLINA Penalty, Offensive holding (Nishad Strother) to the ECaro 37

2nd & 8Pass Reception+28 ydsPPA +2.90

Holton Ahlers pass complete to Audie Omotosho for 28 yds to the Navy 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.07

Rahjai Harris run for 4 yds to the Navy 31

2nd & 6Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.08

Keaton Mitchell run for 5 yds to the Navy 26

3rd & 1Rush0 ydsPPA -0.76

Keaton Mitchell run for no gain to the Navy 26

4th & 1Rush+5 ydsPPA +1.09

Rahjai Harris run for 5 yds to the Navy 21 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.12

Holton Ahlers pass complete to Keaton Mitchell for 3 yds to the Navy 18

2nd & 7Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.52

Keaton Mitchell run for a loss of 1 yard to the Navy 19

3rd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.64

Holton Ahlers pass incomplete to Audie Omotosho, broken up by Jamal Glenn

4th & 8Field Goal Good+37 yds

Owen Daffer 37 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Sack-1 ydsPPA -0.99

Tai Lavatai sacked by Elijah Morris for a loss of 1 yard to the Navy 29

2nd & 11Rush+11 ydsPPA +1.93

Carlinos Acie run for 11 yds to the Navy 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+23 ydsPPA +1.71

Chance Warren run for 8 yds to the ECaro 48 for a 1ST down EAST CAROLINA Penalty, personal foul (Xavier Smith) to the ECaro 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.25

James Harris II run for 6 yds to the ECaro 31

2nd & 4Rush+4 ydsPPA +0.06

James Harris II run for 4 yds to the ECaro 27 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.49

Chance Warren run for 8 yds to the ECaro 19

2nd & 2Rushing Touchdown+19 ydsPPA +2.25

Isaac Ruoss run for 19 yds for a TD (Bijan Nichols KICK)

1st & 10Pass Reception0 ydsPPA -0.44

Holton Ahlers pass complete to Rahjai Harris for no gain to the ECaro 15

2nd & 10Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.03

Holton Ahlers pass complete to Audie Omotosho for 5 yds to the ECaro 20

3rd & 5Pass Reception+67 ydsPPA +4.49

Holton Ahlers pass complete to C.J. Johnson for 54 yds to the NAVY 26 for a 1ST down NAVY Penalty, face mask (13 yards) (Michael McMorris) to the Navy 13 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.17

Rahjai Harris run for 2 yds to the Navy 11

2nd & 8Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.23

Holton Ahlers run for 7 yds to the Navy 4

3rd & 1Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.43

Rahjai Harris run for a loss of 1 yard to the Navy 5

4th & 2Passing Touchdown+5 ydsPPA +2.91

Holton Ahlers pass complete to Ryan Jones for 5 yds for a TD (Owen Daffer KICK)

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.33

James Harris II run for 6 yds to the Navy 31

0th & 10End of Half0 yds

End of 2nd Quarter

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.30

Tai Lavatai run for 3 yds to the Navy 28

2nd & 7Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.09

James Harris II run for 4 yds to the Navy 32

3rd & 3Rush+4 ydsPPA +1.32

James Harris II run for 4 yds to the Navy 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.64

James Harris II run for 2 yds to the Navy 38

2nd & 8Rush+9 ydsPPA +1.70

Chance Warren run for 9 yds to the Navy 47 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.67

Tai Lavatai run for 2 yds to the Navy 49

2nd & 8Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.65

James Harris II run for 2 yds to the ECaro 49

3rd & 6Rush-2 ydsPPA -1.20

Tai Lavatai run for a loss of 2 yards to the Navy 49

4th & 8Punt0 yds

Riley Riethman punt for 51 yds for a touchback

1st & 10Rush+15 ydsPPA +1.14

Keaton Mitchell run for 15 yds to the ECaro 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.11

Holton Ahlers pass complete to Audie Omotosho for 5 yds to the ECaro 40

2nd & 5Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.16

Holton Ahlers pass complete to Jsi Hatfield for 4 yds to the ECaro 44

3rd & 1Pass Reception+1 ydsPPA +1.02

Holton Ahlers pass complete to Shane Calhoun for 1 yd to the ECaro 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+22 ydsPPA +1.37

Holton Ahlers pass complete to Keaton Mitchell for 22 yds to the Navy 33 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.34

Keaton Mitchell run for 2 yds to the Navy 31

2nd & 8Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.58

Keaton Mitchell run for 1 yd to the Navy 30

3rd & 7Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +1.21

Holton Ahlers pass complete to Audie Omotosho for 11 yds to the Navy 19 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+12 ydsPPA +0.41

Keaton Mitchell run for 12 yds to the Navy 7 for a 1ST down

1st & 7Pass Reception+2 ydsPPA -0.24

Holton Ahlers pass complete to Ryan Jones for 2 yds to the Navy 5

2nd & 5Rush-2 ydsPPA -0.45

Keaton Mitchell run for a loss of 2 yards to the Navy 7

3rd & 7Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.03

Holton Ahlers pass complete to Keaton Mitchell for 5 yds to the Navy 2

4th & 2Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -4.15

Holton Ahlers pass incomplete to Audie Omotosho

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.21

Isaac Ruoss run for 1 yd to the Navy 3

2nd & 9Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.11

Isaac Ruoss run for 1 yd to the Navy 4

3rd & 8Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.03

Tai Lavatai run for 3 yds to the Navy 7

4th & 5Punt+5 yds

Riley Riethman punt for 47 yds , Tyler Snead returns for 5 yds to the Navy 49

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.10

Holton Ahlers pass incomplete to Audie Omotosho

2nd & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -1.04

Rahjai Harris run for no gain to the Navy 49

3rd & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.05

Holton Ahlers run for 5 yds to the Navy 44

4th & 5Punt0 yds

Jonn Young punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Chance Warren at the Navy 10

1st & 10Rushing Touchdown+90 ydsPPA +6.79

Carlinos Acie run for 90 yds for a TD (Bijan Nichols KICK)

1st & 10Rush-2 ydsPPA -1.32

Keaton Mitchell run for a loss of 2 yards to the ECaro 33

2nd & 12Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.45

Holton Ahlers pass incomplete to Audie Omotosho, broken up by Michael McMorris

3rd & 12Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +0.70

Holton Ahlers pass complete to Audie Omotosho for 11 yds to the ECaro 44

4th & 1Fumble Recovery (Own)+7 ydsPPA +2.55

Holton Ahlers run for 7 yds to the Navy 40 Holton Ahlers fumbled, forced by Rayuan Lane, recovered by ECaro Holton Ahlers for a 1ST down , return for 5 yds to the Navy 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.85

Holton Ahlers pass incomplete to Tyler Snead, broken up by Tyler Fletcher

2nd & 10Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.27

Holton Ahlers pass complete to Audie Omotosho for 6 yds to the Navy 34

3rd & 4Pass Reception+18 ydsPPA +1.20

Holton Ahlers pass complete to Tyler Snead for 18 yds to the Navy 16 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.33

Keaton Mitchell run for no gain to the Navy 16

2nd & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.29

Holton Ahlers run for 1 yd to the Navy 15

3rd & 9Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.29

Holton Ahlers pass complete to C.J. Johnson for 8 yds to the Navy 7

4th & 1Field Goal Good+25 yds

Owen Daffer 25 yd FG GOOD

No play data available
1st & 10Penalty-5 yds

EAST CAROLINA Penalty, delay of game (Jireh Wilson) to the ECaro 25

1st & 15Pass Reception+27 ydsPPA +2.91

Holton Ahlers pass complete to C.J. Johnson for 27 yds to the Navy 48 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.10

Holton Ahlers run for 5 yds to the Navy 43

2nd & 5Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +0.65

Holton Ahlers pass complete to Ryan Jones for 9 yds to the Navy 34 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.66

Rahjai Harris run for no gain to the Navy 34

2nd & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.68

Holton Ahlers run for 1 yd to the Navy 33

3rd & 9Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.06

Holton Ahlers pass complete to Tyler Snead for 5 yds to the Navy 28

4th & 4Passing Touchdown+28 ydsPPA +4.22

Holton Ahlers pass complete to Tyler Snead for 28 yds for a TD (Holton Ahlers pass to C.J. Johnson for Two-Point Conversion)

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.08

Chance Warren run for 5 yds to the Navy 19

2nd & 5Rush+22 ydsPPA +1.93

Carlinos Acie run for 22 yds to the Navy 41 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.40

James Harris II run for 6 yds to the Navy 47

2nd & 4Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.65

Tai Lavatai run for 6 yds to the ECaro 47 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.82

James Harris II run for 1 yd to the ECaro 46

2nd & 9Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.63

James Harris II run for 2 yds to the ECaro 44

3rd & 7Fumble Recovery (Own)+7 ydsPPA +2.01

Tai Lavatai pass complete to Mark Walker for 7 yds Mark Walker fumbled, forced by Ja'Quan McMillian, recovered by Navy

4th & 5Penalty-5 yds

NAVY Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the ECaro 47

4th & 10Punt0 yds

Riley Riethman punt for 47 yds for a touchback

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.36

Keaton Mitchell run for 2 yds to the ECaro 22

2nd & 8Pass Reception+46 ydsPPA +3.88

Holton Ahlers pass complete to Tyler Snead for 46 yds to the Navy 32 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.46

Keaton Mitchell run for 1 yd to the Navy 31

2nd & 9Penalty-5 yds

EAST CAROLINA Penalty, false start (Jireh Wilson) to the Navy 36

2nd & 14Field Goal Good+54 yds

Owen Daffer 54 yd FG GOOD

Situational Analysis

East Carolina

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
50%
26 plays
50%
2 plays
2nd
0%
3 plays
60%
5 plays
50%
10 plays
50%
2 plays
3rd
50%
4 plays
100%
3 plays
83%
6 plays
100%
1 play
4th
75%
4 plays
100%
1 play

Navy

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
0%
1 play
52%
21 plays
0%
1 play
2nd
50%
2 plays
80%
5 plays
38%
8 plays
100%
2 plays
3rd
100%
3 plays
67%
3 plays
50%
2 plays
4th