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← Back to GamesOct 23, 2021Week 8
CincinnatiCincinnati
27
-Final
20
NavyNavy
Conference Game

House Prediction

Model Margin

Cincinnati by 34.9

Home Win Probability

Navy 2%

Market (consensus)

Navy +28.5

Edge: Cincinnati -28.5 (6.4 pts)

fitted_v1 · Oct 23, 2021

Line Movement

No line movement to chart

Sportsbook snapshots publish once a line is posted for this game.

Team1Q2Q3Q4QFinal
CincinnatiCincinnati
7614027
NavyNavy
7301020

Scoring Timeline

Q1Q2Q3Q4014287-010-710-1010-1310-2010-2713-2720-27
NavyCincinnati

Drive Chart

Own 20Own 4050Opp 40Opp 20CINNAVCINNAVCINNAVCINNAVCINNAVCINNAVCINNAVCINNAVCINNAVCINNAVNAVCINPUNT39ydPUNT38ydPUNT3-5ydTD1379ydTD344ydFG735ydTO632ydPUNT37ydFG1561ydMISS1541ydEND10ydDOWNS1129ydTD454ydPUNT36ydTD1145ydPUNT417ydPUNT39ydFG948ydPUNT3-10ydTD1690ydTO30ydEND1-1yd

Box Score

Team statistics comparing Cincinnati and Navy
StatisticCincinnatiNavy
Passing18-3011-17
Pass Yards176116
Rush Yards95192
Total Yards271308
Turnovers11
3rd Down6-127-21
Penalties11-933-25
Possession20:3339:27

Player Leaders

Player Leaders

Cincinnati
passing
Desmond Ridder
18/30, 176 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
rushing
Jerome Ford
15 CAR, 90 YDS, 1 TD
receiving
Josh Whyle
4 REC, 60 YDS, 2 TD
defense
Navy
passing
Tai Lavatai
11/15, 116 YDS, 1 INT
rushing
Isaac Ruoss
19 CAR, 80 YDS
receiving
Kai Puailoa Rojas
2 REC, 47 YDS
defense

Play-by-Play

1st & 10Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +1.37

Desmond Ridder pass complete to Tyler Scott for 9 yds to the Cincy 47

2nd & 1Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.42

Desmond Ridder pass incomplete

3rd & 1Rush0 ydsPPA -1.10

Jerome Ford run for no gain to the Cincy 47

4th & 1Punt0 yds

Mason Fletcher punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Chance Warren at the Navy 17

1st & 10Rush-2 ydsPPA -0.60

Carlinos Acie run for a loss of 2 yards to the Navy 15

2nd & 12Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.02

James Harris II run for 5 yds to the Navy 20

3rd & 7Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.03

Chance Warren run for 5 yds to the Navy 25

4th & 2Punt+16 yds

Riley Riethman punt for 41 yds , Ryan Montgomery returns for 16 yds to the 50 yard line

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.11

Desmond Ridder pass incomplete to Alec Pierce

2nd & 10Penalty-5 yds

CINCINNATI Penalty, False Start (Leonard Taylor) to the Cincy 45

2nd & 15Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.68

Desmond Ridder pass incomplete

3rd & 15Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.37

Desmond Ridder pass incomplete to Tyler Scott

4th & 15Punt+12 yds

Mason Fletcher punt for 46 yds , Chance Warren returns for 12 yds to the Navy 21

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.25

Carlinos Acie run for 3 yds to the Navy 24

2nd & 7Rush+9 ydsPPA +1.15

Isaac Ruoss run for 9 yds to the Navy 33 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -1.10

Tai Lavatai run for a loss of 1 yard to the Navy 32

2nd & 11Rush+11 ydsPPA +2.07

Isaac Ruoss run for 11 yds to the Navy 43 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.17

Tai Lavatai run for 4 yds to the Navy 47

2nd & 6Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.43

Tai Lavatai run for 3 yds to the 50 yard line

3rd & 3Rush+14 ydsPPA +2.05

Chance Warren run for 14 yds to the Cincy 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.07

Isaac Ruoss run for 4 yds to the Cincy 32

2nd & 6Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.08

Isaac Ruoss run for 4 yds to the Cincy 28

3rd & 2Rush+2 ydsPPA +0.44

Tai Lavatai run for 2 yds to the Cincy 26 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+19 ydsPPA +0.52

Jayden Umbarger run for 19 yds to the Cincy 7 for a 1ST down

1st & 7Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.13

James Harris II run for 5 yds to the Cincy 2

2nd & 2Rushing Touchdown+2 ydsPPA +2.07

Tai Lavatai run for 2 yds for a TD (Bijan Nichols KICK)

1st & 10Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.71

Desmond Ridder pass complete to Alec Pierce for 8 yds to the Navy 36

2nd & 2Rush+5 ydsPPA -0.14

Jerome Ford run for 5 yds to the Navy 31 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Passing Touchdown+31 ydsPPA +2.84

Desmond Ridder pass complete to Josh Whyle for 31 yds for a TD (Christian Lowery KICK)

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.89

Isaac Ruoss run for 1 yd to the 50 yard line

2nd & 9Rush-1 ydsPPA -1.25

Chance Warren run for a loss of 1 yard to the Navy 49

3rd & 10Pass Reception+36 ydsPPA +3.50

Tai Lavatai pass complete to Kai Puailoa-Rojas for 21 yds to the NAVY 30 for a 1ST down CINCINNATI Penalty, Personal Foul (Ja'von Hicks) to the Cincy 15 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.18

Isaac Ruoss run for 2 yds to the Cincy 13

2nd & 8Rush-3 ydsPPA -0.60

Carlinos Acie run for a loss of 3 yards to the Cincy 16

3rd & 11Pass Reception0 ydsPPA -0.64

Tai Lavatai pass complete to Chance Warren for no gain to the Cincy 16

4th & 11Field Goal Good+33 yds

Bijan Nichols 33 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Penalty-5 yds

CINCINNATI Penalty, False Start (James Tunstall) to the Cincy 41

1st & 15Rush-1 ydsPPA -1.06

Jerome Ford run for a loss of 1 yard to the Cincy 40

2nd & 16Pass Reception+17 ydsPPA +3.12

Desmond Ridder pass complete to Josh Whyle for 17 yds to the Navy 43 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.09

Desmond Ridder pass complete to Alec Pierce for 5 yds to the Navy 38

2nd & 5Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.96

Desmond Ridder pass incomplete to Leonard Taylor

3rd & 5Pass Reception+16 ydsPPA +1.57

Desmond Ridder pass complete to Tre Tucker for 16 yds to the Navy 22 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Interception Return+1 ydsPPA -4.35

Desmond Ridder pass intercepted Jamal Glenn return for 1 yd to the Navy 4

1st & 10Rush-2 ydsPPA -0.34

Tai Lavatai run for a loss of 2 yards to the Navy 2

2nd & 12Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.01

James Harris II run for 4 yds to the Navy 6

3rd & 8Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.02

Chance Warren run for 5 yds to the Navy 11

4th & 3Punt0 yds

Riley Riethman punt for 64 yds, downed at the Cincy 25

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.45

Jerome Ford run for 2 yds to the Cincy 27

2nd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.48

Desmond Ridder pass incomplete to Alec Pierce

3rd & 8Pass Reception+13 ydsPPA +2.25

Desmond Ridder pass complete to Michael Young Jr. for 13 yds to the Cincy 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.40

Desmond Ridder pass complete to Jerome Ford for 6 yds to the Cincy 46

2nd & 4Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.99

Jerome Ford run for 1 yd to the Cincy 47

3rd & 3Rush+6 ydsPPA +1.74

Desmond Ridder run for 6 yds to the Navy 47 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.05

Desmond Ridder pass incomplete to Josh Whyle

2nd & 10Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +1.02

Desmond Ridder pass complete to Josh Whyle for 9 yds to the Navy 38

3rd & 1Rush+4 ydsPPA +0.70

Jerome Ford run for 4 yds to the Navy 34 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +0.74

Desmond Ridder pass complete to Leonard Taylor for 9 yds to the Navy 25

2nd & 1Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA -0.35

Desmond Ridder pass complete to Alec Pierce for 11 yds to the Navy 14 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.30

Desmond Ridder pass complete to Leonard Taylor for 7 yds to the Navy 7

2nd & 3Sack-7 ydsPPA -0.96

Desmond Ridder sacked by Jacob Busic for a loss of 7 yards to the Navy 14

3rd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.55

Desmond Ridder pass incomplete to Leonard Taylor

4th & 10Field Goal Good+32 yds

Christian Lowery 32 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.11

James Harris II run for 4 yds to the Navy 29

2nd & 6Rush+8 ydsPPA +1.14

Carlinos Acie run for 8 yds to the Navy 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.16

Tai Lavatai pass complete to Tyger Goslin for 4 yds to the Navy 41

2nd & 6Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.41

Tai Lavatai run for 3 yds to the Navy 44

3rd & 3Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.55

James Harris II run for 2 yds to the Navy 46

4th & 1Penalty+5 yds

CINCINNATI Penalty, Defensive Offside (Myjai Sanders) to the Cincy 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.10

Tai Lavatai pass incomplete to Mychal Cooper

2nd & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.57

Isaac Ruoss run for 7 yds to the Cincy 42

3rd & 3Rush+5 ydsPPA +1.24

Tai Lavatai run for 5 yds to the Cincy 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +0.78

Tai Lavatai pass complete to Mark Walker for 9 yds to the Cincy 28

2nd & 1Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.94

Tai Lavatai run for a loss of 1 yard to the Cincy 29

3rd & 2Rush+4 ydsPPA +0.51

Isaac Ruoss run for 4 yds to the Cincy 25 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-3 ydsPPA -0.81

Tai Lavatai run for a loss of 3 yards to the Cincy 28

2nd & 13Sack-6 ydsPPA -2.02

Tai Lavatai sacked by Curtis Brooks for a loss of 6 yards to the Cincy 34

3rd & 19Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.85

TEAM pass incomplete

4th & 19Blocked Field Goal+51 yds

Bijan Nichols 51 yd FG BLOCKED blocked by Deshawn Pace Deshawn Pace return for 20 yds to the Navy 34

1st & 10Field Goal Good+52 yds

Alex Bales 52 yd FG GOOD

0th & 10End of Half0 yds

End of 2nd Quarter

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.60

Carlinos Acie run for 7 yds to the Navy 32

2nd & 3Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.63

James Harris II run for 2 yds to the Navy 34

3rd & 1Rush0 ydsPPA -0.70

James Harris II run for no gain to the Navy 34

4th & 1Rush+2 ydsPPA +1.65

Tai Lavatai run for 2 yds to the Navy 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.41

Isaac Ruoss run for 3 yds to the Navy 39

2nd & 7Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.37

Isaac Ruoss run for 3 yds to the Navy 42

3rd & 4Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.32

Isaac Ruoss run for 3 yds to the Navy 45

4th & 1Penalty+5 yds

CINCINNATI Penalty, Defensive Offside (Myjai Sanders) to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.87

Tai Lavatai run for 1 yd to the Cincy 49

2nd & 9Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.41

Isaac Ruoss run for 3 yds to the Cincy 46

3rd & 6Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.61

Isaac Ruoss run for 2 yds to the Cincy 44

4th & 4Rush-2 ydsPPA -1.27

Daniel Jones run for a loss of 2 yards to the Cincy 46

1st & 10Penalty-5 yds

CINCINNATI Penalty, False Start (Lorenz Metz) to the Cincy 41

1st & 15Rush+10 ydsPPA +1.33

Jerome Ford run for 10 yds to the Navy 49

2nd & 5Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.16

Desmond Ridder pass complete to Alec Pierce for 4 yds to the Navy 45

3rd & 1Rush+2 ydsPPA +0.88

Jerome Ford run for 2 yds to the Navy 43 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rushing Touchdown+43 ydsPPA +3.35

Jerome Ford run for 43 yds for a TD (Christian Lowery KICK)

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.45

James Harris II run for 2 yds to the Navy 27

2nd & 8Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.40

Carlinos Acie run for 1 yd to the Navy 28

3rd & 7Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.12

Isaac Ruoss run for 3 yds to the Navy 31

4th & 4Punt+19 yds

Riley Riethman punt for 33 yds , Ryan Montgomery returns for 19 yds to the Navy 45

1st & 10Rush+10 ydsPPA +0.50

Jerome Ford run for 10 yds to the Navy 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.69

Desmond Ridder pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.50

Desmond Ridder run for 2 yds to the Navy 33

3rd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.02

Desmond Ridder pass incomplete to Tre Tucker CINCINNATI Penalty, Offensive Holding (Jake Renfro) declined

4th & 8Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +2.50

Desmond Ridder pass complete to Alec Pierce for 9 yds to the Navy 24 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.54

Jerome Ford run for a loss of 1 yard to the Navy 25

2nd & 11Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.04

Desmond Ridder pass complete to Jerome Ford for 5 yds to the Navy 20

3rd & 6Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.63

Desmond Ridder pass complete to Tyler Scott for 6 yds to the Navy 14 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.38

Desmond Ridder run for a loss of 1 yard to the Navy 15

2nd & 11Rush+12 ydsPPA +1.46

Jerome Ford run for 12 yds to the Navy 3 for a 1ST down

1st & 3Passing Touchdown+3 ydsPPA +1.46

Desmond Ridder pass complete to Josh Whyle for 3 yds for a TD (Christian Lowery KICK)

1st & 10Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +0.93

Tai Lavatai pass complete to Mychal Cooper for 11 yds to the Navy 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.85

Isaac Ruoss run for 1 yd to the Navy 37

2nd & 9Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.30

Anton Hall Jr. run for 3 yds to the Navy 40

3rd & 6Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.38

Daniel Jones run for 2 yds to the Navy 42

4th & 4Punt+3 yds

Riley Riethman punt for 46 yds , Ryan Montgomery returns for 3 yds to the Cincy 45 CINCINNATI Penalty, Offensive Holding (Deshawn Pace) to the Cincy 7

1st & 10Penalty-3 yds

CINCINNATI Penalty, False Start (Leonard Taylor) to the Cincy 4

1st & 13Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.11

Jerome Ford run for 6 yds to the Cincy 10

2nd & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.24

Desmond Ridder pass incomplete

3rd & 7Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.06

Desmond Ridder run for 6 yds to the Cincy 16

4th & 1Punt0 yds

Mason Fletcher punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Chance Warren at the Navy 42

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -1.15

Daniel Jones run for no gain to the Navy 42

2nd & 10Pass Reception+26 ydsPPA +2.84

Tai Lavatai pass complete to Kai Puailoa-Rojas for 26 yds to the Cincy 32 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.08

Tai Lavatai run for 5 yds to the Cincy 27

2nd & 5Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.20

James Harris II run for 3 yds to the Cincy 24

3rd & 2Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.41

Tai Lavatai run for 7 yds to the Cincy 17 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.11

Isaac Ruoss run for 3 yds to the Cincy 14

2nd & 7Rush0 ydsPPA -0.35

Tai Lavatai run for no gain to the Cincy 14

3rd & 7Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.05

Tai Lavatai run for 4 yds to the Cincy 10

4th & 3Field Goal Good+27 yds

Bijan Nichols 27 yd FG GOOD

4th & 3Penalty-15 yds

NAVY Penalty, Personal Foul (Bryce Texeira) to the Navy 20

1st & 10Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.84

Desmond Ridder pass complete to Tyler Scott for 8 yds to the Navy 42

2nd & 2Rush-1 ydsPPA -1.38

Jerome Ford run for a loss of 1 yard to the Navy 43

3rd & 3Rush-17 ydsPPA -2.89

Jerome Ford run for a loss of 2 yards to the Cincy 45 CINCINNATI Penalty, Personal Foul (Dylan O'Quinn) to the Cincy 40

4th & 20Punt+4 yds

Mason Fletcher punt for 44 yds , Chance Warren returns for 4 yds to the Navy 44 NAVY Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Chance Warren) to the Navy 10

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.07

Isaac Ruoss run for 5 yds to the Navy 15

2nd & 5Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.34

Isaac Ruoss run for 5 yds to the Navy 20 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+1 ydsPPA -0.47

Tai Lavatai pass complete to Daniel Jones for 1 yd to the Navy 21

2nd & 9Rush0 ydsPPA -0.31

Kai Puailoa-Rojas run for no gain to the Navy 21

3rd & 9Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.02

Tyger Goslin run for 5 yds to the Navy 26

4th & 4Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +2.19

Tai Lavatai pass complete to Chance Warren for 12 yds to the Navy 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.71

Tai Lavatai pass complete to Carlinos Acie for 7 yds to the Navy 45

2nd & 3Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.29

Tai Lavatai pass incomplete

3rd & 3Rush-1 ydsPPA -1.05

Chance Warren run for a loss of 1 yard to the Navy 44

4th & 4Rush+7 ydsPPA +2.82

Isaac Ruoss run for 7 yds to the Cincy 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.82

Tai Lavatai pass complete to Carlinos Acie for 8 yds to the Cincy 41

2nd & 2Rush-5 ydsPPA -2.31

Tai Lavatai run for a loss of 5 yards to the Cincy 46

3rd & 7Pass Reception+17 ydsPPA +2.47

Tai Lavatai pass complete to Chance Warren for 17 yds to the Cincy 29 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty+14 yds

CINCINNATI Penalty, Roughing Passer (Marcus Brown) to the Cincy 15 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.32

Tai Lavatai pass incomplete

2nd & 10Penalty+13 yds

CINCINNATI Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Ahmad Gardner) to the Cincy 2 for a 1ST down

1st & 2Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.69

Tai Lavatai run for 1 yd to the Cincy 1

2nd & 1Rushing Touchdown+1 ydsPPA +1.90

Tai Lavatai run for 1 yd for a TD (Bijan Nichols KICK)

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -1.15

Tai Lavatai run for no gain to the Navy 47

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.96

TEAM pass incomplete

3rd & 10Pass Interception Return+1 ydsPPA -0.79

Tai Lavatai pass intercepted Arquon Bush return for 1 yd to the Cincy 44

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -1.38

TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Cincy 43

Situational Analysis

Cincinnati

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
100%
1 play
56%
18 plays
67%
3 plays
2nd
0%
5 plays
0%
3 plays
25%
4 plays
75%
4 plays
3rd
60%
5 plays
100%
2 plays
50%
4 plays
0%
1 play
4th
100%
1 play

Navy

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
0%
1 play
30%
30 plays
2nd
33%
6 plays
33%
6 plays
25%
12 plays
50%
4 plays
3rd
63%
8 plays
0%
3 plays
63%
8 plays
0%
2 plays
4th
100%
1 play
67%
3 plays