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← Back to GamesOct 16, 2021Week 7
UCFUCF
21
-Final
56
CincinnatiCincinnati
Conference Game

House Prediction

Model Margin

Cincinnati by 23.8

Home Win Probability

Cincinnati 91%

Market (consensus)

Cincinnati -21.5

Edge: Cincinnati -21.5 (2.3 pts)

fitted_v1 · Oct 16, 2021

Line Movement

No line movement to chart

Sportsbook snapshots publish once a line is posted for this game.

Team1Q2Q3Q4QFinal
UCFUCF
077721
CincinnatiCincinnati
142171456

Scoring Timeline

Q1Q2Q3Q40142842567-014-021-035-742-742-1449-1456-21
CincinnatiUCF

Drive Chart

Own 20Own 4050Opp 40Opp 20UCFCINUCFCINUCFCINUCFCINUCFCINUCFCINUCFCINUCFCINCINUCFCINUCFUCFCINUCFCINCINUCFCINUCFCINPUNT35ydTD838ydPUNT614ydTD1066ydPUNT37ydPUNT431ydPUNT32ydPUNT31ydPUNT3-1ydTD464ydPUNT35ydTD179ydTO3-3ydTD434ydTD875ydEND14ydPUNT33ydPUNT34ydTO951ydTD1142ydTD575ydPUNT3-15ydPUNT33ydTO38ydTD28ydPUNT39ydTD649ydTD775ydEND455yd

Box Score

Team statistics comparing UCF and Cincinnati
StatisticUCFCincinnati
Passing16-2713-23
Pass Yards141140
Rush Yards155336
Total Yards296476
Turnovers31
3rd Down7-177-12
Penalties7-479-74
Possession32:4827:12

Player Leaders

Player Leaders

UCF
passing
Mikey Keene
16/27, 141 YDS, 1 TD, 2 INT
rushing
Ryan O'Keefe
1 CAR, 51 YDS
receiving
Ryan O'Keefe
7 REC, 60 YDS
defense
Cincinnati
passing
Desmond Ridder
13/23, 140 YDS, 1 TD
rushing
Jerome Ford
20 CAR, 189 YDS, 4 TD
receiving
Leonard Taylor
4 REC, 47 YDS
defense

Play-by-Play

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.70

Mikey Keene pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.15

Johnny Richardson run for 3 yds to the UCF 28

3rd & 7Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.18

Mikey Keene run for 2 yds to the UCF 30

4th & 5Punt0 yds

TEAM punt for 8 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the UCF 38

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.78

Desmond Ridder pass incomplete to Alec Pierce

2nd & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.44

Jerome Ford run for 7 yds to the UCF 31

3rd & 3Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.78

Desmond Ridder pass complete to Leonard Taylor for 8 yds to the UCF 23 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+10 ydsPPA +0.13

Jerome Ford run for 10 yds to the UCF 13 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.18

Jerome Ford run for 6 yds to the UCF 7

2nd & 4Rush0 ydsPPA -0.38

Jerome Ford run for no gain to the UCF 7

3rd & 4Rush+6 ydsPPA +1.80

Desmond Ridder run for 6 yds to the UCF 1 for a 1ST down

1st & 1Rushing Touchdown+1 ydsPPA +0.94

Jerome Ford run for 1 yd for a TD, (Cole Smith KICK)

1st & 10Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.33

Mikey Keene pass complete to Amari Johnson for 6 yds to the UCF 31

2nd & 4Rush0 ydsPPA -0.87

Johnny Richardson run for no gain to the UCF 31

3rd & 4Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +1.47

Mikey Keene pass complete to Amari Johnson for 5 yds to the UCF 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.11

Mikey Keene pass complete to Ryan O'Keefe for 5 yds to the UCF 41

2nd & 5Rush0 ydsPPA -1.09

Isaiah Bowser run for no gain to the UCF 41

3rd & 5Sack-2 ydsPPA -0.84

Mikey Keene sacked by Curtis Brooks for a loss of 2 yards to the UCF 39

4th & 7Punt0 yds

Andrew Osteen punt for 27 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Cincy 34

1st & 10Rush+10 ydsPPA +0.97

Jerome Ford run for 10 yds to the Cincy 44 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.16

Jerome Ford run for 4 yds to the Cincy 48

2nd & 6Rush+10 ydsPPA +1.24

Desmond Ridder run for 10 yds to the UCF 42 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty-5 yds

CINCINNATI Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the UCF 47

1st & 15Penalty-10 yds

CINCINNATI Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Cincy 43

1st & 25Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.56

Desmond Ridder pass incomplete

2nd & 25Pass Reception+16 ydsPPA +1.83

Desmond Ridder pass complete to Leonard Taylor for 16 yds to the UCF 41

3rd & 9Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +2.24

Desmond Ridder pass complete to Michael Young Jr. for 12 yds to the UCF 29 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+20 ydsPPA +0.36

Desmond Ridder pass complete to Tyler Scott for 20 yds to the UCF 9 for a 1ST down

1st & 9Pass Reception+2 ydsPPA -0.18

Desmond Ridder pass complete to Tyler Scott for 2 yds to the UCF 7

2nd & 7Pass Reception+2 ydsPPA -0.15

Desmond Ridder pass complete to Josh Whyle for 2 yds to the UCF 5

3rd & 5Penalty+3 yds

UCF Penalty, Defensive Offside (3 Yards) to the UCF 2

3rd & 2Rushing Touchdown+2 ydsPPA +2.54

Jerome Ford run for 2 yds for a TD, (Cole Smith KICK)

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.70

Mikey Keene pass incomplete to Brandon Johnson

2nd & 10Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.31

Mikey Keene pass complete to Ryan O'Keefe for 7 yds to the UCF 32

3rd & 3Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.51

Mikey Keene pass incomplete to Amari Johnson

4th & 3Punt0 yds

Andrew Osteen punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Ryan Montgomery at the Cincy 31

1st & 10Penalty+12 yds

Ridder, Desmond pass incomplete, PENALTY UCF pass interference 12 yards to the CINCINNATI43, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN CINCINNATI.

1st & 10Rush+15 ydsPPA +1.17

Jerome Ford run for 15 yds to the UCF 42 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.91

Desmond Ridder pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.15

Jerome Ford run for 4 yds to the UCF 38

3rd & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.06

Desmond Ridder pass incomplete

4th & 6Punt0 yds

Mason Fletcher punt for 36 yds, downed at the UCF 2

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.25

Isaiah Bowser run for no gain to the UCF 2

2nd & 10Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.20

Mikey Keene pass complete to Ryan O'Keefe for 8 yds to the UCF 10

3rd & 2Pass Reception-6 ydsPPA -0.33

Mikey Keene pass complete to Johnny Richardson for a loss of 6 yards to the UCF 4

4th & 8Punt0 yds

Andrew Osteen punt for 51 yds , Ryan Montgomery returns for no gain to the Cincy 4 CINCINNATI Penalty, Offensive Holding (10 Yards) to the Cincy 35

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.83

Charles McClelland run for 1 yd to the Cincy 36

2nd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.68

Desmond Ridder pass incomplete

3rd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.35

Desmond Ridder pass incomplete to Michael Young Jr.

4th & 9Punt0 yds

Mason Fletcher punt for 47 yds, downed at the UCF 17

1st & 10Pass Reception-3 ydsPPA -0.65

Mikey Keene pass complete to Ryan O'Keefe for a loss of 3 yards to the UCF 14

2nd & 13Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.11

Johnny Richardson run for 1 yd to the UCF 15

3rd & 12Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.06

Johnny Richardson run for 1 yd to the UCF 16

4th & 11Punt+5 yds

Andrew Osteen punt for 53 yds , Ryan Montgomery returns for 5 yds to the Cincy 36

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.64

Jerome Ford run for 2 yds to the Cincy 38

2nd & 8Rush+20 ydsPPA +2.50

Jerome Ford run for 20 yds to the UCF 42 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+23 ydsPPA +0.69

Desmond Ridder pass complete to Jerome Ford for 23 yds to the UCF 19 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Passing Touchdown+19 ydsPPA +2.60

Desmond Ridder pass complete to Alec Pierce for 19 yds for a TD, (Cole Smith KICK)

1st & 10Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.33

Mikey Keene pass complete to Ryan O'Keefe for 6 yds to the UCF 31

2nd & 4Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.72

Johnny Richardson run for 1 yd to the UCF 32

3rd & 3Rush-2 ydsPPA -0.64

Johnny Richardson run for a loss of 2 yards to the UCF 30

4th & 5Punt0 yds

Andrew Osteen punt for 49 yds, downed at the Cincy 21

1st & 10Rushing Touchdown+79 ydsPPA +6.33

Jerome Ford run for 79 yds for a TD, (Cole Smith KICK)

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.59

Isaiah Bowser run for 1 yd to the UCF 26

2nd & 9Rush-4 ydsPPA -0.58

Isaiah Bowser run for a loss of 4 yards to the UCF 22

3rd & 13Pass Interception Return+4 ydsPPA +0.24

Mikey Keene pass intercepted Deshawn Pace return for 4 yds to the UCF 34

1st & 10Pass Reception+15 ydsPPA +0.33

Desmond Ridder pass complete to Leonard Taylor for 15 yds to the UCF 19 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+13 ydsPPA +0.55

Jerome Ford run for 13 yds to the UCF 6 for a 1ST down

1st & 6Penalty+3 yds

UCF Penalty, Substitution Infraction (3 Yards) to the UCF 3

1st & 3Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.87

Jerome Ford run for a loss of 1 yard to the UCF 4

2nd & 4Rushing Touchdown+4 ydsPPA +2.33

Jerome Ford run for 4 yds for a TD, (Cole Smith KICK)

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.70

Mikey Keene pass incomplete to Ryan O'Keefe

2nd & 10Rush+51 ydsPPA +4.10

Ryan O'Keefe run for 51 yds to the Cincy 24 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.43

Mikey Keene pass incomplete to Alec Holler

2nd & 10Penalty+5 yds

CINCINNATI Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the Cincy 19

2nd & 5Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.03

Isaiah Bowser run for 4 yds to the Cincy 15

3rd & 1Rush+2 ydsPPA +0.10

Isaiah Bowser run for 2 yds to the Cincy 13 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-3 ydsPPA -0.50

Joey Gatewood run for a loss of 3 yards to the Cincy 16

2nd & 13Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.42

Mikey Keene pass incomplete to Brandon Johnson

3rd & 13Passing Touchdown+16 ydsPPA +3.46

Mikey Keene pass complete to Brandon Johnson for 16 yds for a TD, (Daniel Obarski KICK)

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.11

Charles McClelland run for 4 yds to the Cincy 29

0th & 10End of Half0 yds

End of 2nd Quarter

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.70

Desmond Ridder pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.15

Jerome Ford run for 3 yds to the Cincy 28

3rd & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.27

Desmond Ridder pass incomplete

4th & 7Punt0 yds

Mason Fletcher punt for 27 yds, downed at the UCF 45

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.68

Isaiah Bowser run for 2 yds to the UCF 47

2nd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.05

Mikey Keene pass incomplete

3rd & 8Pass Reception+2 ydsPPA -0.45

Mikey Keene pass complete to Johnny Richardson for 2 yds to the UCF 49

4th & 6Punt0 yds

Andrew Osteen punt for 51 yds for a touchback

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.09

Jerome Ford run for 4 yds to the Cincy 24

2nd & 6Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.22

Jerome Ford run for 3 yds to the Cincy 27

3rd & 3Rush+10 ydsPPA +1.64

Desmond Ridder run for 10 yds to the Cincy 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +1.04

Desmond Ridder pass complete to Leonard Taylor for 8 yds to the Cincy 45

2nd & 2Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.25

Charles McClelland run for 6 yds to the UCF 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.10

Charles McClelland run for 5 yds to the UCF 44

2nd & 5Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.13

Charles McClelland run for 4 yds to the UCF 40

3rd & 1Rush+3 ydsPPA +0.75

Jerome Ford run for 3 yds to the UCF 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Fumble Recovery (Opponent)+8 ydsPPA -3.95

Desmond Ridder pass complete to Charles McClelland for 8 yds Charles McClelland fumbled, forced by Jeremiah Jean-Baptiste, recovered by UCF Josh Celiscar

1st & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +1.34

Amari Johnson run for 9 yds to the UCF 38

2nd & 1Rush0 ydsPPA -1.37

Isaiah Bowser run for no gain to the UCF 38

3rd & 1Rush+10 ydsPPA +1.80

Isaiah Bowser run for 10 yds to the UCF 48 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty-10 yds

UCF Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the UCF 38

1st & 20Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.12

Mikey Keene pass complete to Alec Holler for 4 yds to the UCF 42

2nd & 16Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.55

Mikey Keene pass incomplete

3rd & 16Pass Reception+18 ydsPPA +3.70

Mikey Keene pass complete to Nate Craig-Myers for 18 yds to the Cincy 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.09

Isaiah Bowser run for 4 yds to the Cincy 36

2nd & 6Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.29

Isaiah Bowser run for 3 yds to the Cincy 33

3rd & 3Pass Reception+2 ydsPPA -0.54

Mikey Keene pass complete to Ryan O'Keefe for 2 yds to the Cincy 31

4th & 1Rush+2 ydsPPA +1.32

Isaiah Bowser run for 2 yds to the Cincy 29 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Interception Return Touchdown+74 ydsPPA -11.21

Mikey Keene pass intercepted for a TD Coby Bryant return for 74 yds for a TD, (Cole Smith KICK)

1st & 10Pass Reception+23 ydsPPA +2.07

Mikey Keene pass complete to Ryan O'Keefe for 33 yds to the CINCINNATI 42 for a 1ST down UCF Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the UCF 48 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.66

Johnny Richardson run for 2 yds to the 50 yard line

2nd & 8Pass Reception+35 ydsPPA +2.11

Mikey Keene pass complete to Johnny Richardson for 35 yds to the Cincy 15 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+11 ydsPPA +0.87

Johnny Richardson run for 7 yds to the Cincy 8 for a 1ST down CINCINNATI Penalty, Personal Foul (4 Yards) to the Cincy 4 for a 1ST down

1st & 4Rushing Touchdown+4 ydsPPA +1.69

Isaiah Bowser run for 4 yds for a TD, (Daniel Obarski KICK)

1st & 10Pass Reception+2 ydsPPA -0.64

Desmond Ridder pass complete to Tre Tucker for 2 yds to the Cincy 38

2nd & 8Penalty-5 yds

CINCINNATI Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Cincy 33

2nd & 13Sack-12 ydsPPA -0.73

Desmond Ridder sacked by Quadric Bullard for a loss of 12 yards to the Cincy 21

3rd & 25Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.03

Desmond Ridder pass incomplete

4th & 25Punt+48 yds

Mason Fletcher punt for 48 yds , Amari Johnson returns for a loss of 1 yard to the UCF 30

1st & 10Pass Reception+1 ydsPPA -0.72

Mikey Keene pass complete to Amari Johnson for 1 yd to the UCF 31

2nd & 9Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.35

Johnny Richardson run for 2 yds to the UCF 33

3rd & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.36

Mikey Keene pass incomplete

4th & 7Punt0 yds

Andrew Osteen punt for 44 yds, downed at the Cincy 23

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.27

Ethan Wright run for 3 yds to the Cincy 26

2nd & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.51

Desmond Ridder pass incomplete to Josh Whyle

3rd & 7Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.03

Desmond Ridder pass complete to Ethan Wright for 5 yds to the Cincy 31

4th & 2Punt-9 yds

Mason Fletcher punt for 52 yds , Amari Johnson returns for a loss of 9 yards to the UCF 8 Amari Johnson fumbled, recovered by Cincy

1st & 8Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.25

Ethan Wright run for 4 yds to the UCF 4 for a 1ST down UCF Penalty, Personal Foul (2 Yards) to the UCF 2 for a 1ST down

1st & 2Rushing Touchdown+2 ydsPPA +1.21

Ethan Wright run for 2 yds for a TD, (Cole Smith KICK)

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.04

Joey Gatewood run for 4 yds to the UCF 10

2nd & 6Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.06

Joey Gatewood run for 5 yds to the UCF 15

3rd & 1Penalty-7 yds

UCF Penalty, Offensive Holding (-7 Yards) to the UCF 8

3rd & 8Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.09

Joey Gatewood run for 7 yds to the UCF 15

4th & 1Punt+18 yds

Andrew Osteen punt for 52 yds , Ryan Montgomery returns for 18 yds to the UCF 49

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.14

Ryan Montgomery run for 4 yds to the UCF 45

2nd & 6Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.14

Ryan Montgomery run for 4 yds to the UCF 41

3rd & 2Rush+7 ydsPPA +1.11

Ryan Montgomery run for 7 yds to the UCF 34 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+26 ydsPPA +0.62

Ryan Montgomery run for 26 yds to the UCF 8 for a 1ST down

1st & 8Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.21

Ryan Montgomery run for 2 yds to the UCF 6

2nd & 6Rushing Touchdown+6 ydsPPA +2.53

Evan Prater run for 6 yds for a TD, (Cole Smith KICK)

1st & 10Penalty+5 yds

CINCINNATI Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the UCF 30

1st & 5Rush+20 ydsPPA +0.82

Joey Gatewood run for 20 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.63

Joey Gatewood run for 2 yds to the Cincy 48

2nd & 8Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.16

Joey Gatewood run for 4 yds to the Cincy 44

3rd & 4Rush+5 ydsPPA +1.49

Johnny Richardson run for 5 yds to the Cincy 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty+15 yds

Gatewood, Joey pass incomplete to Johnson, Amari, PENALTY CINCINNATI pass interference 15 yards to the CINCINNATI24, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN UCF.

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.14

Joey Gatewood run for 3 yds to the Cincy 21

2nd & 7Penalty+15 yds

Gatewood, Joey pass incomplete, PENALTY CINCINNATI pass interference 15 yards to the CINCINNATI6, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN UCF.

1st & 6Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.02

Damarius Good run for 4 yds to the Cincy 2

2nd & 2Rushing Touchdown+2 ydsPPA +2.07

Mark-Antony Richards run for 2 yds for a TD, (Daniel Obarski KICK)

1st & 10Rush+21 ydsPPA +1.83

Ryan Montgomery run for 21 yds to the UCF 44 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.30

Ryan Montgomery run for 6 yds to the UCF 38

2nd & 4Rush+25 ydsPPA +0.58

Ryan Montgomery run for 25 yds to the UCF 13 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.10

Ethan Wright run for 3 yds to the UCF 10

Situational Analysis

UCF

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
67%
3 plays
27%
22 plays
0%
1 play
2nd
50%
2 plays
17%
6 plays
44%
9 plays
0%
3 plays
3rd
33%
6 plays
67%
3 plays
25%
4 plays
75%
4 plays
4th
100%
1 play

Cincinnati

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
67%
3 plays
52%
31 plays
0%
1 play
2nd
100%
1 play
50%
8 plays
29%
7 plays
50%
2 plays
3rd
100%
5 plays
50%
2 plays
50%
4 plays
0%
1 play
4th