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← Back to GamesOct 14, 2021Week 7
NavyNavy
17
-Final
35
MemphisMemphis
Conference Game

House Prediction

Model Margin

Memphis by 18.8

Home Win Probability

Memphis 87%

Market (consensus)

Memphis -11

Edge: Memphis -11 (7.8 pts)

fitted_v1 · Oct 14, 2021

Line Movement

No line movement to chart

Sportsbook snapshots publish once a line is posted for this game.

Team1Q2Q3Q4QFinal
NavyNavy
737017
MemphisMemphis
14147035

Scoring Timeline

Q1Q2Q3Q401428427-714-714-1028-1028-1735-17
MemphisNavy

Drive Chart

Own 20Own 4050Opp 40Opp 20MEMNAVMEMNAVMEMNAVMEMNAVMEMNAVNAVMEMNAVMEMNAVMEMNAVMEMNAVTD775ydTD2175ydTD169ydPUNT522ydTO32ydFG56ydTD386ydPUNT40ydTD1263ydEND29ydTD1475ydTD572ydPUNT3-16ydPUNT3-3ydMISS1542ydPUNT3-4ydPUNT35ydDOWNS935ydEND14yd

Box Score

Team statistics comparing Navy and Memphis
StatisticNavyMemphis
Passing4-68-12
Pass Yards43215
Rush Yards198200
Total Yards241415
Turnovers01
3rd Down7-184-9
Penalties4-374-35
Possession39:1920:41

Player Leaders

Player Leaders

Navy
passing
Tai Lavatai
3/4, 27 YDS, 1 TD
rushing
Isaac Ruoss
18 CAR, 75 YDS
receiving
Mychal Cooper
1 REC, 21 YDS, 1 TD
defense
Memphis
passing
Seth Henigan
8/12, 215 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
rushing
Calvin Austin III
1 CAR, 69 YDS, 1 TD
receiving
Eddie Lewis
3 REC, 92 YDS, 1 TD
defense

Play-by-Play

1st & 10Pass Reception+49 ydsPPA +3.36

Seth Henigan pass complete to Javon Ivory for 49 yds to the Navy 26 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.15

Brandon Thomas run for 3 yds to the Navy 23

2nd & 7Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.18

Brandon Thomas run for 6 yds to the Navy 17

3rd & 1Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.16

Brandon Thomas run for 6 yds to the Navy 11 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.18

Brandon Thomas run for 6 yds to the Navy 5

2nd & 4Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.21

Brandon Thomas run for 2 yds to the Navy 3

3rd & 2Passing Touchdown+3 ydsPPA +2.55

Seth Henigan pass complete to Sean Dykes for 3 yds for a TD, (Joe Doyle KICK)

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.59

Tai Lavatai run for 1 yd to the Navy 26

2nd & 9Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.56

Carlinos Acie run for 8 yds to the Navy 34

3rd & 1Rush+2 ydsPPA +0.95

James Harris II run for 2 yds to the Navy 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -1.04

Isaac Ruoss run for no gain to the Navy 36

2nd & 10Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.26

Tai Lavatai pass complete to Jayden Umbarger for 6 yds to the Navy 42

3rd & 4Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.32

Carlinos Acie run for 3 yds to the Navy 45

4th & 1Rush+2 ydsPPA +2.15

Tai Lavatai run for 2 yds to the Navy 47 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.41

Tai Lavatai run for 3 yds to the 50 yard line

2nd & 7Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.16

Isaac Ruoss run for 4 yds to the Memph 46

3rd & 3Rush+4 ydsPPA +1.38

Tai Lavatai run for 4 yds to the Memph 42 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.10

Isaac Ruoss run for 4 yds to the Memph 38

2nd & 6Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.11

James Harris II run for 4 yds to the Memph 34

3rd & 2Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.76

Tai Lavatai run for 7 yds to the Memph 27 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.26

James Harris II run for 2 yds to the Memph 25

2nd & 8Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.06

Tai Lavatai run for 4 yds to the Memph 21

3rd & 4Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.49

Carlinos Acie run for 5 yds to the Memph 16 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.18

Carlinos Acie run for 6 yds to the Memph 10

2nd & 4Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.50

James Harris II run for 5 yds to the Memph 5 for a 1ST down

1st & 5Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.33

Tai Lavatai run for 2 yds to the Memph 3

2nd & 3Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.33

Tai Lavatai run for 1 yd to the Memph 2

3rd & 2Rushing Touchdown+2 ydsPPA +2.54

James Harris II run for 2 yds for a TD, (Bijan Nichols KICK)

3rd & 7Kickoff Return (Offense)+31 yds

Evan Warren kickoff for 65 yds , Javon Ivory return for 31 yds to the Memph 31

1st & 10Rushing Touchdown+69 ydsPPA +5.61

Calvin Austin III run for 69 yds for a TD, (Joe Doyle KICK)

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.30

Isaac Ruoss run for 3 yds to the Navy 28

2nd & 7Rush+15 ydsPPA +1.91

Isaac Ruoss run for 15 yds to the Navy 43 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.11

Isaac Ruoss run for 5 yds to the Navy 48

2nd & 5Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.20

Tai Lavatai pass incomplete to Mark Walker

3rd & 5Rush-1 ydsPPA -1.02

Chance Warren run for a loss of 1 yard to the Navy 47

4th & 6Punt0 yds

Riley Riethman punt for 30 yds, fair catch by Koby Drake at the Memph 23

1st & 10Penalty-5 yds

MEMPHIS Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Memph 18

1st & 15Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.26

Seth Henigan run for 7 yds to the Memph 25

2nd & 8Rush0 ydsPPA -0.43

Brandon Thomas run for no gain to the Memph 25

3rd & 8Pass Interception Return+33 ydsPPA +0.06

Seth Henigan pass intercepted Diego Fagot return for 18 yds to the Memph 43 NAVY Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the Memph 25

1st & 0Fumble Recovery (Own)+14 yds

James Harris II run for 1 yd to the Memph 10 James Harris II fumbled, recovered by Navy , return for 14 yds to the Memph 10 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.16

Tai Lavatai run for 2 yds to the Memph 8

2nd & 8Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.08

Isaac Ruoss run for 3 yds to the Memph 5

3rd & 0Penalty-15 yds

NAVY Penalty, Personal Foul (-15 Yards) to the Memph 20

3rd & 0Rush+1 yds

Jayden Umbarger run for 1 yd to the Memph 19

4th & 0Field Goal Good+36 yds

Bijan Nichols 36 yd FG GOOD

4th & 19Kickoff Return (Offense)0 yds

Evan Warren kickoff for 51 yds , Asa Martin return for no gain to the Memph 14

1st & 10Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +0.65

Seth Henigan pass complete to Calvin Austin III for 12 yds to the Memph 26 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.73

Seth Henigan pass incomplete to Roc Taylor

2nd & 10Passing Touchdown+74 ydsPPA +6.74

Seth Henigan pass complete to Eddie Lewis for 74 yds for a TD, (Joe Doyle KICK)

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.70

Chance Warren run for 10 yds to the Navy 35 NAVY Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Navy 25

1st & 10Sack-7 ydsPPA -1.15

Tai Lavatai sacked by John Tate IV for a loss of 7 yards to the Navy 18

2nd & 17Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.01

Isaac Ruoss run for 5 yds to the Navy 23

3rd & 12Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.07

Isaac Ruoss run for 2 yds to the Navy 25

4th & 10Punt0 yds

Riley Riethman punt for 38 yds , Koby Drake returns for no gain to the Memph 37

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.07

Seth Henigan pass incomplete to Roc Taylor

2nd & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.12

Brandon Thomas run for 4 yds to the Memph 41

3rd & 6Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.06

Seth Henigan run for 5 yds to the Memph 46

4th & 1Rush+1 ydsPPA +2.08

Seth Henigan run for 1 yd to the Memph 47 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+12 ydsPPA +0.85

Marquavius Weaver run for 12 yds to the Navy 41 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.65

Marquavius Weaver run for 8 yds to the Navy 33

2nd & 2Rush+5 ydsPPA -0.18

Marquavius Weaver run for 5 yds to the Navy 28 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.39

Marquavius Weaver run for 1 yd to the Navy 27

2nd & 9Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.42

Seth Henigan pass complete to Calvin Austin III for 8 yds to the Navy 19

3rd & 1Rush+4 ydsPPA +0.17

Brandon Thomas run for 4 yds to the Navy 15 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +1.09

Seth Henigan pass complete to Eddie Lewis for 12 yds to the Navy 3 for a 1ST down

1st & 3Rushing Touchdown+3 ydsPPA +1.46

Brandon Thomas run for 3 yds for a TD, (Joe Doyle KICK)

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.11

Isaac Ruoss run for 4 yds to the Navy 29

2nd & 6Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.09

Isaac Ruoss run for 5 yds to the Navy 34

0th & 6End of Half0 yds

End of 2nd Quarter

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.59

Tai Lavatai run for 1 yd to the Navy 26

2nd & 9Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.37

Carlinos Acie run for 7 yds to the Navy 33

3rd & 2Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.50

James Harris II run for 1 yd to the Navy 34

4th & 1Rush+3 ydsPPA +1.75

Tai Lavatai run for 3 yds to the Navy 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.40

James Harris II run for 6 yds to the Navy 43

2nd & 4Rush+11 ydsPPA +1.10

Isaac Ruoss run for 11 yds to the Memph 46 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.34

Isaac Ruoss run for 3 yds to the Memph 43

2nd & 7Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.61

James Harris II run for 2 yds to the Memph 41

3rd & 5Rush+10 ydsPPA +1.65

Carlinos Acie run for 10 yds to the Memph 31 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.31

James Harris II run for 2 yds to the Memph 29

2nd & 8Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.53

Isaac Ruoss run for 1 yd to the Memph 28

3rd & 7Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.22

Tai Lavatai run for 6 yds to the Memph 22

4th & 1Rush+1 ydsPPA +0.83

Tai Lavatai run for 1 yd to the Memph 21 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Passing Touchdown+21 ydsPPA +2.63

Tai Lavatai pass complete to Mychal Cooper for 21 yds for a TD, (Bijan Nichols KICK)

1st & 10Kickoff Return (Offense)+15 yds

Evan Warren kickoff for 52 yds , Javon Ivory return for 15 yds to the Memph 28

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.13

Brandon Thomas run for 4 yds to the Memph 32

2nd & 6Pass Reception+51 ydsPPA +3.41

Seth Henigan pass complete to Koby Drake for 51 yds to the Navy 17 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.02

Brandon Thomas run for 4 yds to the Navy 13

2nd & 6Rush+9 ydsPPA +0.91

Marquavius Weaver run for 9 yds to the Navy 4 for a 1ST down

1st & 4Rushing Touchdown+4 ydsPPA +1.69

Marquavius Weaver run for 4 yds for a TD, (Joe Doyle KICK)

1st & 10Sack-7 ydsPPA -1.15

Tai Lavatai sacked by Maurice White for a loss of 7 yards to the Navy 18

2nd & 17Rush0 ydsPPA -0.11

Tyger Goslin run for no gain to the Navy 18

3rd & 17Penalty-9 yds

NAVY Penalty, Personal Foul (-9 Yards) to the Navy 9

3rd & 26Rush0 ydsPPA -0.01

Xavier Arline run for no gain to the Navy 9

4th & 26Punt-2 yds

Riley Riethman punt for 42 yds , Koby Drake returns for a loss of 2 yards to the Memph 47

1st & 10Penalty-10 yds

MEMPHIS Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Memph 37

1st & 20Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.48

Seth Henigan run for 1 yd to the Memph 38

2nd & 19Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.34

Seth Henigan pass incomplete to Roc Taylor

3rd & 19Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.07

Seth Henigan pass complete to Eddie Lewis for 6 yds to the Memph 44

4th & 13Punt0 yds

Joe Doyle punt for 56 yds for a touchback

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.36

Isaac Ruoss run for 2 yds to the Navy 22

2nd & 8Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.31

Tai Lavatai run for 1 yd to the Navy 23

3rd & 7Pass Reception0 ydsPPA -0.20

Tai Lavatai pass complete to Carlinos Acie for no gain to the Navy 23

4th & 7Pass Reception+31 ydsPPA +3.71

Chance Warren pass complete to Isaac Ruoss for 16 yds to the Memph 39 for a 1ST down MEMPHIS Penalty, Roughing Passer (15 Yards) to the Memph 46 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Sack-10 ydsPPA -2.98

Tai Lavatai sacked by Rodney Owens for a loss of 10 yards to the Navy 44

2nd & 20Rush+9 ydsPPA +0.69

Daniel Jones run for 9 yds to the Memph 47

3rd & 11Rush+15 ydsPPA +2.96

Carlinos Acie run for 15 yds to the Memph 32 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.08

James Harris II run for 5 yds to the Memph 27

2nd & 5Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.34

Isaac Ruoss run for 2 yds to the Memph 25

3rd & 3Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.39

Isaac Ruoss run for 2 yds to the Memph 23

4th & 1Rush+2 ydsPPA +0.89

Xavier Arline run for 2 yds to the Memph 21 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Sack-12 ydsPPA -2.14

Xavier Arline sacked by Quindell Johnson for a loss of 12 yards to the Memph 33

2nd & 22Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.16

Xavier Arline run for 4 yds to the Memph 29

3rd & 18Rush-9 ydsPPA -2.07

Jayden Umbarger run for a loss of 9 yards to the Memph 38

4th & 27Field Goal Missed+55 yds

Bijan Nichols 55 yd FG MISSED

1st & 10Rush-2 ydsPPA -1.43

Kylan Watkins run for a loss of 2 yards to the Memph 36

2nd & 12Rush-2 ydsPPA -0.68

Kylan Watkins run for a loss of 2 yards to the Memph 34

3rd & 14Rush0 ydsPPA -0.19

Asa Martin run for no gain to the Memph 34

4th & 14Punt+4 yds

Joe Doyle punt for 49 yds , Chance Warren returns for 4 yds to the Navy 21

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.49

Xavier Arline run for 1 yd to the Navy 22

2nd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.33

Xavier Arline pass incomplete

3rd & 9Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.03

Isaac Ruoss run for 4 yds to the Navy 26

4th & 5Punt0 yds

Riley Riethman punt for 31 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Memph 43

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.93

Brandon Thomas run for 1 yd to the Memph 44

2nd & 9Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.60

Brandon Thomas run for 7 yds to the Navy 49

3rd & 2Rush+3 ydsPPA +1.25

Brandon Thomas run for 3 yds to the Navy 46 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.34

Brandon Thomas run for 3 yds to the Navy 43

2nd & 7Rush+12 ydsPPA +1.04

Marquavius Weaver run for 12 yds to the Navy 31 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.31

Marquavius Weaver run for 2 yds to the Navy 29

2nd & 8Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.37

Marquavius Weaver run for 2 yds to the Navy 27

3rd & 6Penalty-5 yds

MEMPHIS Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Navy 32

3rd & 11Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.37

Marquavius Weaver run for 3 yds to the Navy 29

4th & 8Rush+7 ydsPPA -2.21

Marquavius Weaver run for 7 yds to the Navy 22

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.10

Mike Mauai run for 4 yds to the Navy 26

Situational Analysis

Navy

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
0%
1 play
21%
24 plays
2nd
0%
1 play
50%
6 plays
36%
11 plays
50%
4 plays
3rd
67%
6 plays
50%
4 plays
33%
3 plays
25%
4 plays
4th
100%
4 plays
100%
1 play

Memphis

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
100%
1 play
100%
1 play
41%
17 plays
50%
2 plays
2nd
0%
1 play
67%
3 plays
63%
8 plays
0%
2 plays
3rd
100%
4 plays
100%
1 play
100%
1 play
33%
3 plays
4th
100%
1 play
0%
1 play