Skip to main content
← Back to GamesOct 9, 2021Week 6
Conference Game

House Prediction

Model Margin

UCF by 7.3

Home Win Probability

UCF 73%

Market (consensus)

UCF -10

Edge: East Carolina +10 (2.7 pts)

fitted_v1 · Oct 9, 2021

Line Movement

No line movement to chart

Sportsbook snapshots publish once a line is posted for this game.

Team1Q2Q3Q4QFinal
East CarolinaEast Carolina
0310316
UCFUCF
0371020

Scoring Timeline

Q1Q2Q3Q4014283-03-310-610-1310-1613-1620-16
UCFEast Carolina

Drive Chart

Own 20Own 4050Opp 40Opp 20ECUCFECUCFECUCFECUCFECUCFECUCFUCFECUCFECUCFECUCFECUCFECUCFECTO1065ydPUNT421ydPUNT632ydFG1262ydFG1064ydPUNT34ydPUNT30ydPUNT38ydPUNT35ydPUNT1021ydTO631ydEND125ydTO32ydFG623ydTD775ydPUNT32ydPUNT3-3ydTD553ydPUNT517ydFG1666ydFG653ydPUNT31ydTD1164ydTO343yd

Box Score

Team statistics comparing East Carolina and UCF
StatisticEast CarolinaUCF
Passing20-3223-35
Pass Yards219194
Rush Yards141165
Total Yards360359
Turnovers31
3rd Down4-145-15
Penalties4-208-80
Possession32:4227:18

Player Leaders

Player Leaders

East Carolina
passing
Holton Ahlers
20/32, 219 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
rushing
Rahjai Harris
13 CAR, 73 YDS
receiving
Tyler Snead
6 REC, 82 YDS
defense
UCF
passing
Mikey Keene
23/35, 194 YDS, 1 INT
rushing
Johnny Richardson
16 CAR, 104 YDS, 1 TD
receiving
Ryan O'Keefe
10 REC, 73 YDS
defense

Play-by-Play

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.70

Holton Ahlers pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.15

Holton Ahlers pass complete to Audie Omotosho for 3 yds to the ECaro 28

3rd & 7Pass Reception+18 ydsPPA +2.75

Holton Ahlers pass complete to Audie Omotosho for 18 yds to the ECaro 46 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.92

Keaton Mitchell run for 1 yd to the ECaro 47

2nd & 9Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +1.81

Holton Ahlers pass complete to Tyler Snead for 11 yds to the UCF 42 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+13 ydsPPA +0.51

Holton Ahlers pass complete to Jsi Hatfield for 13 yds to the UCF 29 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.41

Keaton Mitchell run for 1 yd to the UCF 28

2nd & 9Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +0.63

Holton Ahlers pass complete to Ryan Jones for 12 yds to the UCF 16 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.18

Keaton Mitchell run for 6 yds to the UCF 10

2nd & 4Rush0 ydsPPA -0.39

Keaton Mitchell run for no gain to the UCF 10

1st & 10Rush+12 ydsPPA +0.52

Johnny Richardson run for 12 yds to the UCF 22 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.40

Johnny Richardson run for 2 yds to the UCF 24

2nd & 8Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.07

Mikey Keene pass complete to Ryan O'Keefe for 4 yds to the UCF 28

3rd & 4Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.16

Mikey Keene run for 3 yds to the UCF 31

4th & 1Punt0 yds

Andrew Osteen punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Tyler Snead at the ECaro 29

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.14

Rahjai Harris run for 4 yds to the ECaro 33

2nd & 6Sack0 ydsPPA -0.78

Holton Ahlers sacked by Kalia Davis for 0 yards to the ECaro 25

3rd & 14Pass Reception+33 ydsPPA +3.93

Holton Ahlers pass complete to Tyler Snead for 33 yds to the UCF 42 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.28

Holton Ahlers pass complete to Shane Calhoun for 6 yds to the UCF 36

2nd & 4Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.49

Rahjai Harris run for 2 yds to the UCF 34

3rd & 2Penalty-5 yds

QB Keeper AHLERS, Holton rush up the middle for a gain of 3 yards to the UCF31 (BULLARD, Quadric). PENALTY Before the snap, ECU False Start enforced 5 yards from the UCF34 to the UCF39. NO PLAY (replay the down).

3rd & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.05

Holton Ahlers pass incomplete

4th & 7Punt0 yds

Jonn Young punt for 39 yds for a touchback

1st & 10Pass Reception+2 ydsPPA -0.36

Mikey Keene pass complete to Johnny Richardson for 2 yds to the UCF 22

2nd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.37

Mikey Keene pass incomplete

3rd & 8Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +1.60

Mikey Keene pass complete to Brandon Johnson for 10 yds to the UCF 32 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.15

Johnny Richardson run for 4 yds to the UCF 36

2nd & 6Rush-3 ydsPPA -1.21

Johnny Richardson run for a loss of 3 yards to the UCF 33

3rd & 9Penalty+5 yds

EAST CAROLINA Penalty, Offsides (5 Yards) to the UCF 38

3rd & 4Penalty+5 yds

EAST CAROLINA Penalty, Offsides (5 Yards) to the UCF 43 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +0.99

Mikey Keene pass complete to Ryan O'Keefe for 12 yds to the ECaro 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.12

Mikey Keene pass complete to Amari Johnson for 4 yds to the ECaro 41

2nd & 6Rush+26 ydsPPA +1.03

Mark-Antony Richards run for 26 yds to the ECaro 15 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.32

Mikey Keene pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.36

Mikey Keene pass incomplete

3rd & 10Pass Reception-3 ydsPPA -1.09

Mikey Keene pass complete to Trillion Coles for a loss of 3 yards to the ECaro 18

4th & 13Field Goal Good+35 yds

Daniel Obarski 35 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Pass Reception+1 ydsPPA -0.59

Holton Ahlers pass complete to Ryan Jones for 1 yd to the ECaro 26

2nd & 9Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.07

Holton Ahlers run for 4 yds to the ECaro 30

3rd & 5Pass Reception+14 ydsPPA +2.37

Holton Ahlers pass complete to Tyler Snead for 14 yds to the ECaro 44 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +1.26

Keaton Mitchell run for 9 yds to the UCF 47

2nd & 1Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.30

Keaton Mitchell run for 3 yds to the UCF 44 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty+15 yds

UCF Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the UCF 17 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.02

Holton Ahlers pass complete to Ryan Jones for 4 yds to the UCF 13

2nd & 6Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.20

Keaton Mitchell run for 2 yds to the UCF 11

3rd & 4Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.39

Holton Ahlers pass incomplete

4th & 4Field Goal Good+29 yds

Owen Daffer 29 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +1.25

Mikey Keene pass complete to Ryan O'Keefe for 9 yds to the UCF 34

2nd & 1Penalty-5 yds

COLES, Trillion rush up the middle for no gain to the UCF34 (DOURSEAU, Shawn). PENALTY Before the snap, UCF Illegal Formation enforced 5 yards from the UCF34 to the UCF29. NO PLAY (replay the down).

2nd & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.65

Mikey Keene pass incomplete

3rd & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.31

Mikey Keene pass incomplete

4th & 6Punt0 yds

Andrew Osteen punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Tyler Snead at the ECaro 26

1st & 10Penalty0 yds

EAST CAROLINA Penalty, Ineligible Receiver Downfield on Pass ( Yards) declined

2nd & 10Penalty-5 yds

EAST CAROLINA Penalty, False Start (Ryan Jones) to the ECaro 21

2nd & 15Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.02

Holton Ahlers pass complete to Tyler Snead for 5 yds to the ECaro 26

3rd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.17

Holton Ahlers pass incomplete

4th & 10Punt+14 yds

Jonn Young punt for 52 yds , Amari Johnson returns for 14 yds to the UCF 21

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.38

Johnny Richardson run for 2 yds to the UCF 23

2nd & 8Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.20

Mikey Keene pass complete to Ryan O'Keefe for 6 yds to the UCF 29

3rd & 2Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.50

Mikey Keene pass incomplete

4th & 2Punt0 yds

Andrew Osteen punt for 50 yds, fair catch by Tyler Snead at the ECaro 21

1st & 10Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.54

Holton Ahlers pass complete to Audie Omotosho for 7 yds to the ECaro 28

2nd & 3Pass Reception-2 ydsPPA -1.09

Holton Ahlers pass complete to Tyler Snead for a loss of 2 yards to the ECaro 26

3rd & 5Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.30

Holton Ahlers pass incomplete

4th & 5Punt0 yds

Jonn Young punt for 44 yds

1st & 10Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +1.00

Mikey Keene pass complete to Ryan O'Keefe for 8 yds to the UCF 38

2nd & 2Rush+1 ydsPPA -1.04

Mikey Keene run for 1 yd to the UCF 39

3rd & 1Rush+2 ydsPPA +1.07

Trillion Coles run for 2 yds to the UCF 41 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.92

Trillion Coles run for 1 yd to the UCF 42

2nd & 9Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.32

Mikey Keene pass complete to Ryan O'Keefe for 6 yds to the UCF 48

3rd & 3Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +2.02

Mikey Keene pass complete to Ryan O'Keefe for 11 yds to the ECaro 41 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty-10 yds

UCF Penalty, Offensive Holding (Nate Craig-Myers) to the 50 yard line

1st & 19Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.59

Johnny Richardson run for 2 yds to the ECaro 48

2nd & 17Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.52

Mikey Keene run for 2 yds to the ECaro 46

3rd & 15Penalty-5 yds

UCF Penalty, False Start (Ryan O'Keefe) to the UCF 49

3rd & 20Pass Reception+2 ydsPPA -0.22

Mikey Keene pass complete to Trillion Coles for 2 yds to the ECaro 49

4th & 18Punt0 yds

Andrew Osteen punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Tyler Snead at the ECaro 9

1st & 10Rush+14 ydsPPA +0.61

Rahjai Harris run for 14 yds to the ECaro 23 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Sack0 ydsPPA -0.64

Holton Ahlers sacked by Big Kat Bryant for 0 yards to the ECaro 21

2nd & 12Sack0 ydsPPA -0.22

Holton Ahlers sacked by Josh Celiscar for 0 yards to the ECaro 17

3rd & 16Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.05

Holton Ahlers pass incomplete

4th & 16Penalty+15 yds

YOUNG, Jonn punt 50 yards to the UCF33 return muffed by JOHNSON, Amari at the UCF33, recovered by UCF JOHNSON, Amari at the UCF33, returned 0 yards to the UCF33, End of Play. PENALTY UCF Roughing the Kicker on BAKER, Jarrad enforced 15 yards from the ECU17 to the ECU32 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY (replay the down).

1st & 10Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +1.02

Holton Ahlers pass complete to Rahjai Harris for 8 yds to the ECaro 40

2nd & 2Pass Interception Return0 ydsPPA -2.50

Holton Ahlers pass intercepted return for no gain to the UCF 48

1st & 10Rush+25 ydsPPA +1.27

Johnny Richardson run for 25 yds to the ECaro 27 for a 1ST down

0th & 10End of Half0 yds

End of 2nd Quarter

0th & 0Kickoff Return (Offense)+21 yds

Owen Daffer kickoff for 62 yds , Johnny Richardson return for 21 yds to the UCF 44 UCF Penalty, Offensive Holding (10 Yards) to the UCF 14

1st & 10Pass Reception-2 ydsPPA -0.52

Mikey Keene pass complete to Amari Johnson for a loss of 2 yards to the UCF 12

2nd & 12Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.02

Mikey Keene pass complete to Amari Johnson for 4 yds to the UCF 16

3rd & 8Pass Interception Return0 ydsPPA +0.20

Mikey Keene pass intercepted return for no gain to the UCF 28

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.39

Keaton Mitchell run for 1 yd to the UCF 27

2nd & 9Rush+17 ydsPPA +0.64

Keaton Mitchell run for 17 yds to the UCF 10 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.08

Rahjai Harris run for 5 yds to the UCF 5

2nd & 5Rush0 ydsPPA -0.32

Rahjai Harris run for no gain to the UCF 5

3rd & 5Rush0 ydsPPA -0.29

Mason Garcia run for no gain to the UCF 5

4th & 5Field Goal Good+23 yds

Owen Daffer 23 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Rush+38 ydsPPA +3.03

Johnny Richardson run for 38 yds to the ECaro 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.41

Johnny Richardson run for 7 yds to the ECaro 30

2nd & 3Rush0 ydsPPA -0.74

Johnny Richardson run for no gain to the ECaro 30

3rd & 3Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.70

Joey Gatewood run for 6 yds to the ECaro 24 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.32

Johnny Richardson run for 7 yds to the ECaro 17

2nd & 3Pass Reception+13 ydsPPA +0.67

Mikey Keene pass complete to Ryan O'Keefe for 13 yds to the ECaro 4 for a 1ST down

1st & 4Rushing Touchdown+4 ydsPPA +1.69

Johnny Richardson run for 4 yds for a TD, (Daniel Obarski KICK)

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.70

Holton Ahlers pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.23

Rahjai Harris run for 2 yds to the ECaro 27

3rd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.22

Holton Ahlers pass incomplete

4th & 8Punt0 yds

Jonn Young punt for 51 yds, downed at the UCF 22

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.09

Mark-Antony Richards run for 5 yds to the UCF 27

2nd & 5Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.55

Johnny Richardson run for 1 yd to the UCF 28

3rd & 4Sack0 ydsPPA -0.37

Mikey Keene sacked by Suirad Ware and Bruce Bivens for 0 yards to the UCF 19

4th & 13Punt0 yds

Andrew Osteen punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Tyler Snead at the ECaro 47

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.63

Keaton Mitchell run for 7 yds to the UCF 46

2nd & 3Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.22

Keaton Mitchell run for 5 yds to the UCF 41 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.65

Keaton Mitchell run for 8 yds to the UCF 33

2nd & 2Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.66

Keaton Mitchell run for 1 yd to the UCF 32

3rd & 1Penalty+5 yds

UCF Penalty, Offsides (Keenan Hester) to the UCF 27 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Passing Touchdown+27 ydsPPA +2.74

Audie Omotosho 27 Yd pass from Holton Ahlers (Owen Daffer Kick)

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.70

Johnny Richardson run for no gain to the UCF 25

2nd & 10Pass Reception+20 ydsPPA +2.50

Mikey Keene pass complete to Amari Johnson for 20 yds to the UCF 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.68

Trillion Coles run for 2 yds to the UCF 47

2nd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.05

Mikey Keene pass incomplete

3rd & 8Sack0 ydsPPA -0.70

Mikey Keene sacked by Shawn Dourseau for 0 yards to the UCF 42

4th & 13Punt-2 yds

Andrew Osteen punt for 38 yds , Tyler Snead returns for a loss of 2 yards to the ECaro 18

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.08

Jsi Hatfield run for 4 yds to the ECaro 22

2nd & 6Rush+16 ydsPPA +1.61

Rahjai Harris run for 16 yds to the ECaro 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.11

Rahjai Harris run for 5 yds to the ECaro 43

2nd & 5Rush+7 ydsPPA +1.00

Rahjai Harris run for 7 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.14

Holton Ahlers pass complete to Ryan Jones for 4 yds to the UCF 46

2nd & 6Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.10

Keaton Mitchell run for 5 yds to the UCF 41

3rd & 1Rush0 ydsPPA -1.17

Rahjai Harris run for no gain to the UCF 41

4th & 1Rush+1 ydsPPA +1.86

Holton Ahlers run for 1 yd to the UCF 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+15 ydsPPA +0.49

Rahjai Harris run for 15 yds to the UCF 25 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-2 ydsPPA -0.68

Keaton Mitchell run for a loss of 2 yards to the UCF 27

2nd & 12Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.72

Holton Ahlers pass incomplete

3rd & 12Rush+14 ydsPPA +1.56

Holton Ahlers run for 14 yds to the UCF 13 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.17

Rahjai Harris run for 2 yds to the UCF 11

2nd & 8Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.23

Rahjai Harris run for 1 yd to the UCF 10

3rd & 7Sack0 ydsPPA -0.38

Holton Ahlers sacked by Keenan Hester for 0 yards to the UCF 16

4th & 13Field Goal Good+34 yds

Owen Daffer 34 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.70

Mikey Keene pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Reception+49 ydsPPA +4.06

Mikey Keene pass complete to Johnny Richardson for 49 yds to the ECaro 26 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.36

Johnny Richardson run for 1 yd to the ECaro 25

2nd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.59

Mikey Keene pass incomplete

3rd & 9Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.28

Mikey Keene pass complete to Amari Johnson for 3 yds to the ECaro 22

4th & 6Field Goal Good+40 yds

Daniel Obarski 40 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.70

Keaton Mitchell run for no gain to the ECaro 25

2nd & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.29

Keaton Mitchell run for 1 yd to the ECaro 26

3rd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.19

Holton Ahlers pass incomplete

4th & 9Punt0 yds

Jonn Young punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Amari Johnson at the UCF 36

1st & 10Penalty0 yds

PENALTY ECU Unsportsmanlike Conduct on MAUNEY, Demetrius UCF Unsportsmanlike Conduct on BAKER, Jarrad , Offsetting penalties [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

1st & 10Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.41

Mikey Keene pass complete to Ryan O'Keefe for 3 yds to the UCF 39

2nd & 7Pass Reception+16 ydsPPA +2.08

Mikey Keene pass complete to Titus Mokiao-Atimalala for 16 yds to the ECaro 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.00

Mikey Keene pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.62

Johnny Richardson run for 2 yds to the ECaro 43

3rd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.98

Mikey Keene pass incomplete

4th & 8Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +3.24

Mikey Keene pass complete to Mark-Antony Richards for 12 yds to the ECaro 31 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.05

Mikey Keene pass complete to Amari Johnson for 4 yds to the ECaro 27

2nd & 6Rush+19 ydsPPA +0.57

Mark-Antony Richards run for 19 yds to the ECaro 8 for a 1ST down

1st & 8Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.42

Mark-Antony Richards run for 7 yds to the ECaro 1

2nd & 1Rush0 ydsPPA -0.55

Mark-Antony Richards run for no gain to the ECaro 1

3rd & 1Rushing Touchdown+1 ydsPPA +2.45

Mark-Antony Richards run for 1 yd for a TD, (Daniel Obarski KICK)

0th & 0Kickoff Return (Offense)+15 yds

Daniel Obarski kickoff for 60 yds , Tyler Snead return for 15 yds to the ECaro 20

1st & 10Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.80

Holton Ahlers pass complete to Tyler Snead for 8 yds to the ECaro 28

2nd & 2Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +0.73

Holton Ahlers pass complete to Rahjai Harris for 11 yds to the ECaro 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+24 ydsPPA +1.80

Holton Ahlers pass complete to Audie Omotosho for 24 yds to the UCF 37

Situational Analysis

East Carolina

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
52%
29 plays
2nd
33%
6 plays
38%
8 plays
38%
8 plays
33%
3 plays
3rd
0%
1 play
25%
4 plays
17%
6 plays
67%
3 plays
4th
100%
1 play

UCF

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
100%
1 play
40%
25 plays
0%
1 play
2nd
25%
4 plays
40%
5 plays
45%
11 plays
0%
2 plays
3rd
80%
5 plays
0%
3 plays
33%
6 plays
0%
1 play
4th
100%
1 play