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← Back to GamesOct 2, 2021Week 5
Conference Game

House Prediction

Model Margin

SMU by 25.5

Home Win Probability

SMU 94%

Market (consensus)

SMU -21

Edge: SMU -21 (4.5 pts)

fitted_v1 · Oct 2, 2021

Line Movement

No line movement to chart

Sportsbook snapshots publish once a line is posted for this game.

Team1Q2Q3Q4QFinal
South FloridaSouth Florida
0314017
SMUSMU
107101441

Scoring Timeline

Q1Q2Q3Q401428427-010-016-017-320-1027-1741-17
SMUSouth Florida

Drive Chart

Own 20Own 4050Opp 40Opp 20SMUSFSMUSFSMUSFSMUSFSMUSFSFSMUSFSMUSFSMUSFSMUSFSMUSFSMUSFTD1275ydPUNT422ydFG1165ydPUNT542ydTD1397ydFG1463ydTO830ydPUNT3-5ydPUNT30ydEND337ydTD775ydFG1163ydPUNT33ydTD558ydTD1075ydPUNT416ydPUNT421ydTD450ydTO35ydTD630ydPUNT36ydPUNT414ydEND17yd

Box Score

Team statistics comparing South Florida and SMU
StatisticSouth FloridaSMU
Passing14-2229-42
Pass Yards223301
Rush Yards113162
Total Yards336463
Turnovers11
3rd Down2-119-16
Penalties8-754-40
Possession27:1132:49

Player Leaders

Player Leaders

South Florida
passing
Timmy McClain
14/22, 223 YDS
rushing
Brian Battie
7 CAR, 46 YDS
receiving
Jimmy Horn Jr.
5 REC, 102 YDS
defense
SMU
passing
Tanner Mordecai
29/42, 301 YDS, 4 TD, 1 INT
rushing
Tre Siggers
20 CAR, 86 YDS, 1 TD
receiving
Danny Gray
7 REC, 74 YDS, 2 TD
defense

Play-by-Play

1st & 15Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.06

Tre Siggers run for 4 yds to the SMU 24

2nd & 11Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.13

Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Reggie Roberson Jr. for 3 yds to the SMU 27

3rd & 8Pass Reception+14 ydsPPA +2.35

Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Reggie Roberson Jr. for 14 yds to the SMU 41 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +1.00

Tre Siggers run for 8 yds to the SMU 49

2nd & 2Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.03

Tre Siggers run for 3 yds to the SFla 48 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.07

Tanner Mordecai pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.05

Tanner Mordecai pass incomplete

3rd & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.05

Tanner Mordecai run for 5 yds to the SFla 43

4th & 5Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +2.92

Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Danny Gray for 12 yds to the SFla 31 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+10 ydsPPA +0.21

Tre Siggers run for 10 yds to the SFla 21 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.39

Tre Siggers run for no gain to the SFla 21

2nd & 10Passing Touchdown+21 ydsPPA +3.02

Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Reggie Roberson Jr. for 21 yds for a TD (Blake Mazza KICK)

1st & 10Pass Reception+14 ydsPPA +1.22

Timmy McClain pass complete to Sean Atkins for 14 yds to the SFla 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.11

Jaren Mangham run for 5 yds to the SFla 44

2nd & 5Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.44

Timmy McClain run for 3 yds to the SFla 47

3rd & 2Rush0 ydsPPA -1.03

Jaren Mangham run for no gain to the SFla 47

1st & 10Pass Reception+22 ydsPPA +2.01

Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Tyler Lavine for 22 yds to the SMU 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.89

Tyler Lavine run for 1 yd to the 50 yard line

2nd & 9Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.41

Tre Siggers run for 3 yds to the SFla 47

3rd & 6Pass Reception+23 ydsPPA +2.54

Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Danny Gray for 23 yds to the SFla 24 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.19

Tre Siggers run for 6 yds to the SFla 18

2nd & 4Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.15

Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Grant Calcaterra for 3 yds to the SFla 15

3rd & 1Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.13

Tre Siggers run for 5 yds to the SFla 10 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.16

Tanner Mordecai run for 2 yds to the SFla 8

2nd & 8Rush0 ydsPPA -0.27

Tre Siggers run for no gain to the SFla 8

3rd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.35

Tanner Mordecai pass incomplete

4th & 8Field Goal Good+26 yds

Blake Mazza 26 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Rush+24 ydsPPA +2.14

Brian Battie run for 24 yds to the SFla 48 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+13 ydsPPA +0.87

Timmy McClain pass complete to Xavier Weaver for 13 yds to the SMU 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.44

Brian Battie run for 2 yds to the SMU 37

2nd & 8Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.31

Kelley Joiner run for 3 yds to the SMU 34

3rd & 5Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.02

Timmy McClain pass incomplete

4th & 5Punt0 yds

Andrew Stokes punt for 31 yds, downed at the SMU 3

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.17

Tyler Lavine run for 2 yds to the SMU 5

2nd & 8Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.04

Tyler Lavine run for 5 yds to the SMU 10

3rd & 3Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +0.76

Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Rashee Rice for 11 yds to the SMU 21 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.59

Tanner Mordecai pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +0.58

Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Danny Gray for 9 yds to the SMU 30

3rd & 1Rush+2 ydsPPA +0.82

Tanner Mordecai run for 2 yds to the SMU 32 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -1.07

Tyler Lavine run for a loss of 1 yard to the SMU 31

2nd & 11Pass Reception+13 ydsPPA +2.22

Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Danny Gray for 13 yds to the SMU 44 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+15 ydsPPA +1.13

Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Rashee Rice for 15 yds to the SFla 41 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.46

Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Reggie Roberson Jr. for 7 yds to the SFla 34

2nd & 3Penalty0 yds

MORDECAI, Tanner pass to the right complete for 14 yards to RICE, Rashee caught at the USF24 and advanced to the USF20 (HILL, Matthew), out of bounds, 1ST DOWN. PENALTY USF Personal Foul on HILL, Matthew enforced half the distance from the goal, 10 yards from the end of the play at the USF20 to the USF10 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.29

Tanner Mordecai pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.28

Tanner Mordecai pass incomplete

3rd & 10Passing Touchdown+10 ydsPPA +3.08

Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Rashee Rice for 10 yds for a TD

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.09

Kelley Joiner run for 5 yds to the SFla 30

2nd & 5Pass Reception+19 ydsPPA +2.06

Timmy McClain pass complete to Jimmy Horn Jr. for 19 yds to the SFla 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.40

Jaren Mangham run for 3 yds to the SMU 48

2nd & 7Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.90

Timmy McClain run for 1 yd to the SMU 47

3rd & 6Rush+10 ydsPPA +2.17

Timmy McClain run for 10 yds to the SMU 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +0.64

Jaren Mangham run for 9 yds to the SMU 15

2nd & 1Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.49

Timmy McClain pass complete to Jimmy Horn Jr. for 3 yds to the SMU 12 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.23

Jaren Mangham run for 1 yd to the SMU 11

2nd & 9Rush+9 ydsPPA +1.55

Timmy McClain run for 9 yds to the SMU 2 for a 1ST down

1st & 2Rush0 ydsPPA -0.85

Jaren Mangham run for no gain to the SMU 2

2nd & 2Penalty-5 yds

SOUTH FLORIDA Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the SMU 7

2nd & 7Rush-3 ydsPPA -0.47

Timmy McClain run for a loss of 3 yards to the SMU 10

3rd & 10Penalty-5 yds

SOUTH FLORIDA Penalty, Delay Of Game (Matthew Hill) to the SMU 15

3rd & 15Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.23

Timmy McClain run for 3 yds to the SMU 12

1st & 10Pass Reception+13 ydsPPA +0.37

Timmy McClain pass complete to Mitchell Brinkman for 13 yds to the SMU 24 for a 1ST down

4th & 12Field Goal Good+29 yds

Spencer Shrader 29 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +0.84

Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Brandon Epton Jr. for 10 yds to the SMU 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.63

Brandon Epton Jr. run for 2 yds to the SMU 37

2nd & 8Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +1.60

Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Roderick Daniels Jr. for 8 yds to the SMU 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.38

Brandon Epton Jr. run for 6 yds to the SFla 49

2nd & 4Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +0.71

Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Roderick Daniels Jr. for 9 yds to the SFla 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.85

Tanner Mordecai pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Reception-5 ydsPPA -2.04

Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Rashee Rice for a loss of 5 yards to the SFla 45

2nd & 15Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.68

Timmy McClain pass incomplete

3rd & 15Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.37

Timmy McClain pass incomplete

4th & 15Punt0 yds

Andrew Stokes punt for 35 yds

1st & 10Rush-3 ydsPPA -0.75

Tre Siggers run for a loss of 3 yards to the SMU 17

2nd & 13Rush-4 ydsPPA -0.22

Tre Siggers run for a loss of 4 yards to the SMU 13

3rd & 17Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.03

Tanner Mordecai run for 7 yds to the SMU 20

4th & 10Punt0 yds

Brendan Hall punt for 37 yds

1st & 10Pass Reception+37 ydsPPA +1.85

Timmy McClain pass complete to Jimmy Horn Jr. for 37 yds to the SMU 20 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.37

Timmy McClain pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.47

Timmy McClain pass incomplete

0th & 10End of Half0 yds

End of 2nd Quarter

1st & 10Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +1.25

Timmy McClain pass complete to Jimmy Horn Jr. for 9 yds to the SFla 34

2nd & 1Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.23

Jaren Mangham run for 3 yds to the SFla 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+17 ydsPPA +1.51

Timmy McClain pass complete to Xavier Weaver for 17 yds to the SMU 46 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+18 ydsPPA +0.78

Timmy McClain run for 18 yds to the SMU 28 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.51

Timmy McClain pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Reception+27 ydsPPA +2.34

Timmy McClain pass complete to Demarcus Gregory for 27 yds to the SMU 1 for a 1ST down

1st & 1Rushing Touchdown+1 ydsPPA +0.94

Jaren Mangham run for 1 yd for a TD (Spencer Shrader KICK)

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.70

Tanner Mordecai pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.48

Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Danny Gray for 8 yds to the SMU 33

3rd & 2Pass Reception+13 ydsPPA +2.11

Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Rashee Rice for 13 yds to the SMU 46 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+17 ydsPPA +1.13

Tre Siggers run for 17 yds to the SFla 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty+15 yds

QB Keeper MORDECAI, Tanner rush to the left for a loss of 4 yards to the USF41 (GRIER, Antonio), out of bounds. PENALTY USF Personal Foul on GRIER, Antonio enforced 15 yards from the end of the play at the USF41 to the USF26 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.47

Tanner Mordecai pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.20

Tanner Mordecai run for 3 yds to the SFla 23

3rd & 7Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +0.84

Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Reggie Roberson Jr. for 9 yds to the SFla 14 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.18

Tre Siggers run for 2 yds to the SFla 12

2nd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.32

Tanner Mordecai pass incomplete

3rd & 8Pass Reception0 ydsPPA -0.44

Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Grant Calcaterra for no gain to the SFla 12

4th & 8Field Goal Good+30 yds

Blake Mazza 30 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Penalty+15 yds

MCCLAIN, Timmy pass up the middle incomplete intended for WEAVER, Xavier thrown to the SMU30. PENALTY SMU Pass Interference on ROGERS, Jahari enforced 15 yards to the USF40 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

1st & 10Rush-3 ydsPPA -1.65

Jaren Mangham run for a loss of 3 yards to the SFla 37

2nd & 13Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.23

Timmy McClain run for 3 yds to the SFla 40

3rd & 10Sack0 ydsPPA -0.41

Timmy McClain sacked by Delano Robinson for 0 yards to the SFla 28

4th & 22Punt0 yds

Andrew Stokes punt for 45 yds , Jordan Kerley returns for no gain to the SMU 42

1st & 10Penalty+15 yds

SIGGERS, Tre rush up the middle for a gain of 7 yards to the SMU49 (BOYLES, Dwayne). PENALTY USF Unsportsmanlike Conduct on BELLAMY, Damaurez enforced 15 yards from the end of the play at the SMU49 to the USF36 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

1st & 10Pass Reception-3 ydsPPA -1.29

Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Jordan Kerley for a loss of 3 yards to the SFla 39

2nd & 13Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +1.14

Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Rashee Rice for 11 yds to the SFla 28

3rd & 2Rush+4 ydsPPA +0.48

Tre Siggers run for 4 yds to the SFla 24 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +0.14

Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Austin Upshaw for 11 yds to the SFla 13 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rushing Touchdown+13 ydsPPA +2.54

Tre Siggers run for 13 yds for a TD (Blake Mazza KICK)

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.70

Timmy McClain pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Reception+13 ydsPPA +1.83

Timmy McClain pass complete to Demarcus Gregory for 13 yds to the SFla 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty+15 yds

MCCLAIN, Timmy pass to the left incomplete intended for WEAVER, Xavier thrown to the SMU31. PENALTY SMU Pass Interference on ROGERS, Jahari enforced 15 yards to the SMU47 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.58

Brian Battie run for 2 yds to the SMU 45

2nd & 8Sack0 ydsPPA -1.10

Timmy McClain sacked by Gary Wiley for 0 yards to the SFla 46

3rd & 17Pass Reception+34 ydsPPA +4.16

Timmy McClain pass complete to Jimmy Horn Jr. for 34 yds to the SMU 20 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+14 ydsPPA +0.57

Brian Battie run for 14 yds to the SMU 6 for a 1ST down

1st & 6Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.39

Jaren Mangham run for 1 yd to the SMU 5

2nd & 5Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.32

Timmy McClain pass incomplete

3rd & 5Rush+5 yds

run for 5 yds

4th & 1Rushing Touchdown+1 ydsPPA +2.79

Jaren Mangham run for 1 yd for a TD (Spencer Shrader KICK) (Spencer Shrader KICK)

1st & 10Rush+13 ydsPPA +1.17

Tanner Mordecai run for 13 yds to the SFla 48 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.07

Tanner Mordecai pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.85

Tre Siggers run for 1 yd to the SFla 47

3rd & 9Pass Reception+2 ydsPPA -0.53

Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Rashee Rice for 2 yds to the SFla 45

4th & 7Punt0 yds

Matt Fraanje punt for 45 yds for a touchback

1st & 10Pass Reception+18 ydsPPA +1.43

Timmy McClain pass complete to Omarion Dollison for 18 yds to the SFla 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+2 ydsPPA -0.67

Timmy McClain pass complete to Kelley Joiner for 2 yds to the SFla 40

2nd & 8Penalty-5 yds

SOUTH FLORIDA Penalty, False Start (Dustyn Hall) to the SFla 35

2nd & 13Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.09

Timmy McClain pass complete to Xavier Weaver for 4 yds to the SFla 39

3rd & 9Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.28

Timmy McClain run for 2 yds to the SFla 41 SOUTH FLORIDA Penalty, Offensive Holding ( Yards) declined

4th & 7Punt0 yds

Andrew Stokes punt for 9 yds

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.87

Tre Siggers run for 1 yd to the SFla 49

2nd & 9Pass Reception+42 ydsPPA +2.52

Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Jordan Kerley for 42 yds to the SFla 7 for a 1ST down

1st & 7Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.14

Tre Siggers run for 3 yds to the SFla 4

2nd & 4Passing Touchdown+4 ydsPPA +2.33

Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Danny Gray for 4 yds for a TD (Blake Mazza KICK)

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.30

Brian Battie run for 3 yds to the SFla 28

2nd & 7Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.27

Brian Battie run for 6 yds to the SFla 34

3rd & 1Rush-4 ydsPPA -1.01

Timmy McClain run for a loss of 4 yards to the SFla 30

1st & 10Penalty+5 yds

LAVINE, Tyler rush up the middle for no gain to the USF30 (GREEN, Blake;MANGUM, Thad). PENALTY Before the snap, USF Illegal Substitution enforced 5 yards from the USF30 to the USF25. NO PLAY (replay the down).

1st & 5Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.64

Tanner Mordecai pass incomplete

2nd & 5Rush+9 ydsPPA +0.17

Tyler Lavine run for 9 yds to the SFla 16 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.07

Tyler Lavine run for 5 yds to the SFla 11

2nd & 5Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.61

Tre Siggers run for 6 yds to the SFla 5 for a 1ST down

1st & 5Rush0 ydsPPA -0.55

Tyler Lavine run for no gain to the SFla 5

2nd & 5Passing Touchdown+5 ydsPPA +2.44

Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Danny Gray for 5 yds for a TD (Blake Mazza KICK)

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.80

Kelley Joiner run for a loss of 1 yard to the SFla 24

2nd & 11Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.19

Kelley Joiner run for 2 yds to the SFla 26

3rd & 9Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.02

Kelley Joiner run for 5 yds to the SFla 31

4th & 4Punt0 yds

Andrew Stokes punt for 43 yds

1st & 10Rush+18 ydsPPA +1.64

Brandon Epton Jr. run for 18 yds to the SMU 44 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -1.16

Brandon Epton Jr. run for no gain to the SMU 44

2nd & 10Rush-2 ydsPPA -1.14

Brandon Epton Jr. run for a loss of 2 yards to the SMU 42

3rd & 12Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.18

Brandon Epton Jr. run for 3 yds to the SMU 45

4th & 9Penalty-5 yds

SMU Penalty, Delay Of Game (TEAM) to the SMU 40

4th & 14Punt0 yds

Brendan Hall punt for 51 yds, downed at the SFla 9

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.37

Kelley Joiner run for 7 yds to the SFla 16

Situational Analysis

South Florida

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
50%
2 plays
0%
1 play
56%
25 plays
2nd
0%
2 plays
33%
3 plays
44%
9 plays
0%
4 plays
3rd
0%
2 plays
50%
2 plays
33%
3 plays
33%
3 plays
4th
100%
1 play

SMU

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
0%
2 plays
42%
33 plays
0%
1 play
2nd
0%
1 play
83%
6 plays
40%
15 plays
50%
4 plays
3rd
100%
5 plays
100%
1 play
57%
7 plays
50%
2 plays
4th
100%
1 play