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← Back to GamesOct 2, 2021Week 5
UCFUCF
30
-Final
34
NavyNavy
Conference Game

House Prediction

Model Margin

UCF by 18

Home Win Probability

Navy 10%

Market (consensus)

Navy +15

Edge: UCF -15 (3.0 pts)

fitted_v1 · Oct 2, 2021

Line Movement

No line movement to chart

Sportsbook snapshots publish once a line is posted for this game.

Team1Q2Q3Q4QFinal
UCFUCF
13107030
NavyNavy
71001734

Scoring Timeline

Q1Q2Q3Q401428427-77-1310-1310-2017-2320-3027-3034-30
NavyUCF

Drive Chart

Own 20Own 4050Opp 40Opp 20NAVUCFNAVUCFNAVUCFNAVUCFUCFUCFNAVUCFNAVUCFNAVUCFNAVUCFNAVUCFNAVTO30ydTD115ydTD1675ydTD875ydFG1468ydTD658ydPUNT825ydTD32ydFG1167ydPUNT36ydDOWNS938ydPUNT824ydTO38ydTD110ydFG969ydPUNT35ydTD745ydTO326ydTD1153ydTO1053ydEND2-2yd

Box Score

Team statistics comparing UCF and Navy
StatisticUCFNavy
Passing16-272-4
Pass Yards17858
Rush Yards148348
Total Yards326406
Turnovers22
3rd Down2-107-16
Penalties5-308-72
Possession20:4239:18

Player Leaders

Player Leaders

UCF
passing
Mikey Keene
16/26, 178 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
rushing
Johnny Richardson
11 CAR, 59 YDS
receiving
Brandon Edward Johnson
4 REC, 79 YDS, 2 TD
defense
Navy
passing
Tai Lavatai
2/4, 58 YDS
rushing
Carlinos Acie
11 CAR, 85 YDS
receiving
Chance Warren
1 REC, 49 YDS
defense

Play-by-Play

1st & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +0.96

Chance Warren run for 9 yds to the Navy 24

2nd & 1Penalty-12 yds

HARRIS II, J rush for 3 yards to the NAVY27 (Montalvo, Antho), PENALTY NAVY personal foul (BANBURY, Pierce) 12 yards to the NAVY12, NO PLAY.

2nd & 13Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.08

James Harris II run for 2 yds to the Navy 14

1st & 10Passing Touchdown+15 ydsPPA +2.56

Mikey Keene pass complete to Brandon Johnson for 15 yds for a TD (Daniel Obarski KICK)

1st & 10Rush+14 ydsPPA +1.22

Carlinos Acie run for 14 yds to the Navy 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.17

Isaac Ruoss run for 4 yds to the Navy 43

2nd & 6Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.11

Tyger Goslin run for 5 yds to the Navy 48

3rd & 1Rush0 ydsPPA -1.12

Tai Lavatai run for no gain to the Navy 48

4th & 1Rush+4 ydsPPA +2.35

James Harris II run for 4 yds to the UCF 48 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.13

Chance Warren run for 4 yds to the UCF 44

2nd & 6Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.14

James Harris II run for 4 yds to the UCF 40

3rd & 2Rush0 ydsPPA -1.13

Tai Lavatai run for no gain to the UCF 40

4th & 2Rush+3 ydsPPA +2.04

Tai Lavatai run for 3 yds to the UCF 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.25

Isaac Ruoss run for 6 yds to the UCF 31

2nd & 4Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.41

Tai Lavatai run for 2 yds to the UCF 29

3rd & 2Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.55

Isaac Ruoss run for 6 yds to the UCF 23 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+11 ydsPPA +0.13

Chance Warren run for 11 yds to the UCF 12 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.10

James Harris II run for 3 yds to the UCF 9

2nd & 7Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.16

Tai Lavatai run for 2 yds to the UCF 7

3rd & 5Rushing Touchdown+7 ydsPPA +2.79

Tai Lavatai run for 7 yds for a TD (Bijan Nichols KICK)

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.30

Trillion Coles run for 3 yds to the UCF 28

2nd & 7Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.27

Amari Johnson run for 6 yds to the UCF 34

3rd & 1Rush+1 ydsPPA +0.86

Trillion Coles run for 1 yd to the UCF 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.11

Johnny Richardson run for 5 yds to the UCF 40

2nd & 5Pass Reception+34 ydsPPA +2.41

Mikey Keene pass complete to Johnny Richardson for 34 yds to the Navy 26 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty+5 yds

Richardson, Joh rush for 1 yard to the NAVY25 (FAGOT, Diego;BERNIARD JR., D), PENALTY NAVY offside (FLETCHER, Tyler) 5 yards to the NAVY21, NO PLAY.

1st & 5Penalty-5 yds

UCF Penalty, delay of game (Mikey Keene) to the Navy 26

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.33

Trillion Coles run for 7 yds to the Navy 19

2nd & 3Rush-2 ydsPPA -0.76

Trillion Coles run for a loss of 2 yards to the Navy 21

3rd & 5Penalty+5 yds

NAVY Penalty, Defensive offside (Diego Fagot) to the Navy 16 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rushing Touchdown+16 ydsPPA +2.57

Amari Johnson run for 16 yds for a TD (Daniel Obarski PAT BLOCKED)

1st & 10Rush+12 ydsPPA +1.03

Carlinos Acie run for 12 yds to the Navy 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.66

Tai Lavatai run for 2 yds to the Navy 39

2nd & 8Rush+8 ydsPPA +1.61

Carlinos Acie run for 8 yds to the Navy 47 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.11

James Harris II run for 5 yds to the UCF 48

2nd & 5Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.75

Tai Lavatai run for 7 yds to the UCF 41 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.10

Isaac Ruoss run for 4 yds to the UCF 37

2nd & 6Rush+14 ydsPPA +0.67

Isaac Ruoss run for 14 yds to the UCF 23 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.23

Isaac Ruoss run for 2 yds to the UCF 21

2nd & 8Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.16

Carlinos Acie run for 6 yds to the UCF 15

3rd & 2Rush+3 ydsPPA +0.20

James Harris II run for 3 yds to the UCF 12 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.17

James Harris II run for 2 yds to the UCF 10

2nd & 8Rush-2 ydsPPA -0.44

Tai Lavatai run for a loss of 2 yards to the UCF 12

3rd & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.03

Carlinos Acie run for 5 yds to the UCF 7

4th & 5Field Goal Good+24 yds

Bijan Nichols 24 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.40

Johnny Richardson run for 6 yds to the UCF 48

2nd & 4Rush+14 ydsPPA +1.07

Ryan O'Keefe run for 14 yds to the Navy 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.42

Trillion Coles run for 2 yds to the Navy 36

2nd & 8Rush+10 ydsPPA +0.79

Johnny Richardson run for 10 yds to the Navy 26 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.15

Joey Gatewood run for 3 yds to the Navy 23

2nd & 7Passing Touchdown+23 ydsPPA +2.87

Mikey Keene pass complete to Brandon Johnson for 23 yds for a TD (Daniel Obarski KICK)

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.59

Isaac Ruoss run for 1 yd to the Navy 26

2nd & 9Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.56

Tai Lavatai run for 8 yds to the Navy 34

3rd & 1Rush+2 ydsPPA +0.95

Isaac Ruoss run for 2 yds to the Navy 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.04

Tai Lavatai pass incomplete to Mychal Cooper, broken up by Divaad Wilson

2nd & 10Rush+15 ydsPPA +2.43

Jayden Umbarger run for 15 yds to the UCF 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.62

Tyger Goslin run for 2 yds to the UCF 47

2nd & 8Sack-3 ydsPPA -1.70

Tai Lavatai sacked by Josh Celiscar for a loss of 3 yards to the 50 yard line

3rd & 11Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.66

Tai Lavatai pass incomplete to James Harris II

4th & 11Punt0 yds

Riley Riethman punt for 28 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the UCF 22

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.40

Trillion Coles run for 2 yds to the UCF 24

2nd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.41

Mikey Keene pass incomplete to Amari Johnson

3rd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.19

Mikey Keene pass incomplete to Brandon Johnson

4th & 8Blocked Punt0 yds

Andrew Osteen punt blocked by Michael McMorris blocked by Michael McMorris Daniel Taylor return for no gain for a TD (Zach Rodriguez KICK) Jeremiah Jean-Baptiste kickoff , 2J return for a loss of 10 yards to the UCF 22 2J run for a loss of 2 yards to the UCF 24 for a 1ST down NAVY Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (J'arius Warren) to the UCF 39 for a 1ST down 1M pass complete to Zachary Kuhlman for a loss of 8 yards to the UCF 47 1M pass complete to Zachary Kuhlman for a loss of 11 yards to the Navy 42 3T run for a loss of 8 yards to the Navy 33 3T fumbled, forced by Ricky Barber, recovered by UCF Brandon Johnson (Bijan Nichols KICK)

1st & 10Rush+17 ydsPPA +1.42

Johnny Richardson run for 2 yds to the UCF 24 for a 1ST down NAVY Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (J'arius Warren) to the UCF 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +1.02

Mikey Keene pass complete to Alec Holler for 8 yds to the UCF 47

2nd & 2Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +0.54

Mikey Keene pass complete to Alec Holler for 11 yds to the Navy 42 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Fumble Recovery (Own)+8 ydsPPA +0.67

Trillion Coles run for 8 yds to the Navy 33 Trillion Coles fumbled, forced by Michael McMorris, recovered by UCF Brandon Johnson

3rd & 6Rush+18 ydsPPA +1.74

Mikey Keene run for 3 yds to the Navy 35 for a 1ST down NAVY Penalty, personal foul (Diego Fagot) to the Navy 20 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.07

Mikey Keene pass complete to Amari Johnson for 5 yds to the Navy 15

2nd & 1Penalty-5 yds

UCF Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Navy 38

2nd & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.96

Mikey Keene pass incomplete to Brandon Johnson

2nd & 5Pass Reception-9 ydsPPA -1.51

Mikey Keene pass complete to Ryan O'Keefe for 1 yd to the Navy 14 UCF Penalty, illegal block (Cam Goode) to the Navy 24

2nd & 14Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.68

Mikey Keene pass incomplete to Amari Johnson

3rd & 14Rush+13 ydsPPA +1.06

Daniel Obarski run for 13 yds to the Navy 11

0th & 1End of Half0 yds

End of 2nd Quarter

4th & 1Field Goal Good+28 yds

Daniel Obarski 28 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Pass Reception+1 ydsPPA -0.59

Mikey Keene pass complete to Alec Holler for 1 yd to the UCF 26

2nd & 9Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.05

Johnny Richardson run for 5 yds to the UCF 31

3rd & 4Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.44

Mikey Keene pass incomplete to Alec Holler

4th & 4Punt+12 yds

Andrew Osteen punt for 49 yds , Chance Warren returns for 12 yds to the Navy 32

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.15

Carlinos Acie run for 4 yds to the Navy 36

2nd & 6Rush+11 ydsPPA +1.57

Isaac Ruoss run for 11 yds to the Navy 47 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.67

Isaac Ruoss run for 2 yds to the Navy 49

2nd & 8Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.65

Isaac Ruoss run for 2 yds to the UCF 49

3rd & 6Rush+11 ydsPPA +2.32

Tai Lavatai run for 11 yds to the UCF 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.08

Isaac Ruoss run for 4 yds to the UCF 34

2nd & 6Fumble Recovery (Own)-3 ydsPPA -1.47

Tai Lavatai run for a loss of 3 yards to the UCF 38 Tai Lavatai fumbled, recovered by Navy

3rd & 10Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +0.92

Tai Lavatai pass complete to Mark Walker for 9 yds to the UCF 29

4th & 1Penalty-5 yds

NAVY Penalty, false start (Darrellson Masaniai) to the UCF 34

4th & 6Rush+4 ydsPPA -1.97

Tai Lavatai run for 4 yds to the UCF 30

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.86

Mikey Keene pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+13 ydsPPA +2.09

Johnny Richardson run for 13 yds to the UCF 43 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.43

Johnny Richardson run for 3 yds to the UCF 46

2nd & 7Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.42

Joey Gatewood run for 3 yds to the UCF 49

3rd & 4Rush+7 ydsPPA +1.90

Johnny Richardson run for 7 yds to the Navy 44 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.97

Ryan O'Keefe run for no gain to the Navy 44

2nd & 10Rush-4 ydsPPA -1.83

Johnny Richardson run for a loss of 4 yards to the Navy 48

3rd & 14Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.40

Mikey Keene pass complete to Mark-Antony Richards for 7 yds to the Navy 41

4th & 7Penalty-5 yds

UCF Penalty, delay of game (Mikey Keene) to the Navy 46

4th & 12Punt0 yds

Andrew Osteen punt for 44 yds, downed at the Navy 2

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.10

Isaac Ruoss run for 3 yds to the Navy 5

2nd & 7Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.05

Tai Lavatai run for 5 yds to the Navy 10

3rd & 2Fumble Recovery (Opponent)-1 ydsPPA +0.03

Tai Lavatai run for a loss of 1 yard to the Navy 10 Tai Lavatai fumbled, forced by Cam Goode, recovered by UCF Quadric Bullard

1st & 10Rushing Touchdown+10 ydsPPA +2.51

Joey Gatewood run for 10 yds for a TD (Daniel Obarski KICK)

1st & 10Rush+10 ydsPPA +0.84

Carlinos Acie run for 10 yds to the Navy 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.41

Isaac Ruoss run for 3 yds to the Navy 38

2nd & 7Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.35

Kai Puailoa-Rojas run for 6 yds to the Navy 44

3rd & 1Rush+2 ydsPPA +1.11

Isaac Ruoss run for 2 yds to the Navy 46 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+49 ydsPPA +2.30

Tai Lavatai pass complete to Chance Warren for 49 yds to the UCF 5 for a 1ST down

1st & 5Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.45

Tai Lavatai run for 1 yd to the UCF 4

2nd & 4Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.43

Isaac Ruoss run for a loss of 1 yard to the UCF 5

3rd & 5Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.02

Tai Lavatai run for 4 yds to the UCF 1

4th & 1Penalty-5 yds

NAVY Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the UCF 6

4th & 6Field Goal Good+23 yds

Bijan Nichols 23 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.70

Mikey Keene pass incomplete, broken up by Michael McMorris

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.35

Mikey Keene pass incomplete to Alec Holler

3rd & 10Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.02

Mikey Keene pass complete to Amari Johnson for 5 yds to the UCF 30

4th & 5Punt0 yds

Andrew Osteen punt for 15 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the UCF 45

1st & 10Rush+10 ydsPPA +0.50

Carlinos Acie run for 10 yds to the UCF 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+12 ydsPPA +0.31

James Harris II run for 12 yds to the UCF 23 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +0.64

Carlinos Acie run for 9 yds to the UCF 14

2nd & 1Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.50

Isaac Ruoss run for 2 yds to the UCF 12 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.10

Jayden Umbarger run for 3 yds to the UCF 9

2nd & 7Rush+8 ydsPPA +1.69

Chance Warren run for 8 yds to the UCF 1 for a 1ST down

1st & 1Rushing Touchdown+1 ydsPPA +0.94

Tai Lavatai run for 1 yd for a TD (Bijan Nichols KICK)

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.12

Joey Gatewood run for 4 yds to the UCF 31

2nd & 6Rush0 ydsPPA -0.71

Johnny Richardson run for no gain to the UCF 31

3rd & 6Fumble Recovery (Opponent)+20 ydsPPA -0.23

Mikey Keene pass complete to Brandon Johnson for 20 yds Brandon Johnson fumbled, forced by Diego Fagot, recovered by Navy Taylor Robinson

1st & 10Rush-4 ydsPPA -1.99

Carlinos Acie run for 6 yds to the NAVY 47 NAVY Penalty, Offensive holding (Chance Warren) to the Navy 43

1st & 14Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.58

Isaac Ruoss run for 7 yds to the 50 yard line

2nd & 7Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.67

Kai Puailoa-Rojas run for 2 yds to the UCF 48

3rd & 5Rush+7 ydsPPA +1.93

Tyger Goslin run for 7 yds to the UCF 41 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.28

Isaac Ruoss run for 3 yds to the UCF 38

2nd & 7Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.68

Tai Lavatai run for 7 yds to the UCF 31 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+14 ydsPPA +0.26

James Harris II run for 14 yds to the UCF 17 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.11

James Harris II run for 3 yds to the UCF 14

2nd & 7Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.11

Isaac Ruoss run for 3 yds to the UCF 11

3rd & 4Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.21

Tai Lavatai run for 2 yds to the UCF 9

4th & 2Penalty+5 yds

UCF Penalty, Defensive offside (Big Kat Bryant) to the UCF 4 for a 1ST down

1st & 4Rushing Touchdown+4 ydsPPA +1.69

Isaac Ruoss run for 4 yds for a TD (Bijan Nichols KICK)

1st & 10Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +1.00

Mikey Keene pass complete to Ryan O'Keefe for 8 yds to the UCF 38

2nd & 2Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.51

Mikey Keene pass complete to Alec Holler for 8 yds to the UCF 46 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+12 ydsPPA +0.89

Johnny Richardson run for 12 yds to the Navy 42 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+19 ydsPPA +0.63

Mikey Keene pass complete to Brandon Johnson for 19 yds to the Navy 23 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.03

Mikey Keene pass complete to Ryan O'Keefe for 4 yds to the Navy 19

2nd & 6Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.17

Mikey Keene pass complete to Alec Holler for 7 yds to the Navy 12 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.30

Joey Gatewood pass incomplete to Nate Craig-Myers

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.31

Mikey Keene pass incomplete to Alec Holler

3rd & 10Rush-5 ydsPPA -1.32

Amari Johnson run for a loss of 5 yards to the Navy 17

4th & 15Pass Interception Return0 ydsPPA -2.55

Mikey Keene pass intercepted, touchback. Taylor Robinson return for no gain

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.63

TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Navy 19

2nd & 11Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.25

TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Navy 18

Situational Analysis

UCF

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
52%
25 plays
2nd
67%
3 plays
50%
6 plays
50%
10 plays
0%
1 play
3rd
100%
1 play
50%
4 plays
33%
3 plays
100%
2 plays
4th
0%
1 play

Navy

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
100%
1 play
50%
2 plays
38%
32 plays
100%
1 play
2nd
0%
1 play
50%
8 plays
57%
14 plays
0%
2 plays
3rd
71%
7 plays
60%
5 plays
100%
2 plays
0%
1 play
4th
100%
2 plays
0%
1 play