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← Back to GamesSep 26, 2021Week 4

House Prediction

Model Margin

BYU by 29.1

Home Win Probability

BYU 95%

Market (consensus)

BYU -23.5

Edge: BYU -23.5 (5.6 pts)

fitted_v1 · Sep 26, 2021

Line Movement

No line movement to chart

Sportsbook snapshots publish once a line is posted for this game.

Team1Q2Q3Q4QFinal
South FloridaSouth Florida
0614727
BYUBYU
2177035

Scoring Timeline

Q1Q2Q3Q401428427-014-021-321-628-628-1335-2035-27
BYUSouth Florida

Drive Chart

Own 20Own 4050Opp 40Opp 20BYUBYUSFSFBYUSFBYUSFBYUSFBYUSFSFBYUSFBYUSFBYUUncategorized0783ydTD475ydDOWNS00ydPUNT36ydTD565ydTO49ydTD834ydFG1369ydPUNT630ydFG1255ydTD775ydPUNT37ydTD1475ydTD475ydTD654ydMISS970ydTD1994ydEND824yd

Box Score

Team statistics comparing South Florida and BYU
StatisticSouth FloridaBYU
Passing17-2420-25
Pass Yards186305
Rush Yards174143
Total Yards360448
Turnovers10
3rd Down6-152-7
Penalties3-255-49
Possession35:3724:23

Player Leaders

Player Leaders

South Florida
passing
Timmy McClain
17/24, 186 YDS
rushing
Jaren Mangham
26 CAR, 86 YDS, 2 TD
receiving
Xavier Weaver
5 REC, 76 YDS
defense
BYU
passing
Baylor Romney
20/25, 305 YDS, 3 TD
rushing
Tyler Allgeier
15 CAR, 86 YDS, 2 TD
receiving
Gunner Romney
5 REC, 119 YDS, 1 TD
defense

Play-by-Play

No play data available
1st & 10Rush+12 ydsPPA +1.03

Tyler Allgeier run for 12 yds to the BYU 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+49 ydsPPA +2.50

Baylor Romney pass complete to Gunner Romney for 49 yds to the SFla 14 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty-5 yds

BYU Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the SFla 19

1st & 15Rush+14 ydsPPA +0.96

Tyler Allgeier run for 14 yds to the SFla 5

2nd & 1Passing Touchdown+5 ydsPPA +1.93

Baylor Romney pass complete to Masen Wake for 5 yds for a TD, (Justen Smith KICK)

No play data available
1st & 10Rush-5 ydsPPA -1.07

Brian Battie run for a loss of 5 yards to the SFla 20

2nd & 15Rush-3 ydsPPA -0.20

Jaren Mangham run for a loss of 3 yards to the SFla 17

3rd & 18Pass Reception+14 ydsPPA +0.29

Timmy McClain pass complete to Jaren Mangham for 14 yds to the SFla 31

4th & 4Punt+9 yds

Andrew Stokes punt for 43 yds , Hobbs Nyberg returns for 9 yds to the BYU 35

1st & 10Pass Reception+55 ydsPPA +2.73

Baylor Romney pass complete to Puka Nacua for 55 yds to the SFla 10 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.18

Lopini Katoa run for 6 yds to the SFla 4

2nd & 4Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.43

Baylor Romney run for a loss of 1 yard to the SFla 5

3rd & 5Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.02

Baylor Romney pass complete to Masen Wake for 4 yds to the SFla 1

4th & 1Rushing Touchdown+1 ydsPPA +2.79

Tyler Allgeier run for 1 yd for a TD, (Justen Smith KICK)

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.70

Timmy McClain pass incomplete to Xavier Weaver

2nd & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.31

Timmy McClain run for 7 yds to the SFla 32

3rd & 3Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.33

Timmy McClain run for 2 yds to the SFla 34

4th & 1Fumble Recovery (Opponent)0 ydsPPA -0.20

Timmy McClain run for no gain to the SFla 34 Timmy McClain fumbled, recovered by BYU Lorenzo Fauatea

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.66

Baylor Romney pass incomplete to Neil Pau'u

2nd & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.11

Tyler Allgeier run for 4 yds to the SFla 30

3rd & 6Rush+7 ydsPPA +1.05

Baylor Romney run for 7 yds to the SFla 23 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+13 ydsPPA +0.15

Baylor Romney run for 13 yds to the SFla 10 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +0.61

Baylor Romney pass complete to Puka Nacua for 9 yds to the SFla 1

2nd & 1Penalty0 yds

SOUTH FLORIDA Penalty, Defensive Offside (Blake Green) to the SFla 1

2nd & 1Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.55

Baylor Romney pass incomplete to Isaac Rex

3rd & 1Rush0 ydsPPA -0.33

Samson Nacua run for no gain to the SFla 1

4th & 1Rushing Touchdown+1 ydsPPA +2.79

Tyler Allgeier run for 1 yd for a TD, (Justen Smith KICK)

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.45

Jaren Mangham run for 1 yd to the SFla 20

2nd & 9Rush0 ydsPPA -0.29

Jaren Mangham run for no gain to the SFla 20

3rd & 9Rush+11 ydsPPA +1.57

Timmy McClain run for 11 yds to the SFla 31 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.74

Timmy McClain run for 1 yd to the SFla 32

2nd & 9Pass Reception+20 ydsPPA +2.66

Timmy McClain pass complete to Xavier Weaver for 20 yds to the BYU 48 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-2 ydsPPA -1.54

Timmy McClain run for a loss of 2 yards to the 50 yard line

2nd & 12Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.06

Timmy McClain pass complete to Brian Battie for 5 yds to the BYU 45

3rd & 7Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.16

Timmy McClain pass complete to Randal Copeland for 4 yds to the BYU 41

4th & 3Rush+28 ydsPPA +2.79

Timmy McClain run for 18 yds to the BYU 23 for a 1ST down BYU Penalty, Defensive Holding (Ammon Hannemann) to the BYU 13 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.24

Timmy McClain run for 1 yd to the BYU 12

2nd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.31

Timmy McClain pass incomplete to Mitchell Brinkman

3rd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.46

Timmy McClain pass incomplete to Xavier Weaver

4th & 9Field Goal Good+29 yds

Spencer Shrader 29 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +0.68

Baylor Romney pass complete to Neil Pau'u for 11 yds to the BYU 28 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.10

Lopini Katoa run for 5 yds to the BYU 33

2nd & 5Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +1.19

Baylor Romney pass complete to Neil Pau'u for 9 yds to the BYU 42 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.93

Tyler Allgeier run for 1 yd to the BYU 43

2nd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.90

Baylor Romney pass incomplete to Tyler Allgeier

3rd & 9Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.10

Baylor Romney pass complete to Tyler Allgeier for 4 yds to the BYU 47

4th & 5Punt0 yds

Ryan Rehkow punt for 53 yds for a touchback

1st & 10Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.29

Timmy McClain pass complete to Brian Battie for 6 yds to the SFla 26

2nd & 4Fumble Recovery (Own)+7 ydsPPA +0.67

Brian Battie run for 7 yds to the SFla 33 Brian Battie fumbled, forced by Chaz Ah You, recovered by SFla Demetris Harris for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.96

Timmy McClain pass incomplete to Xavier Weaver

2nd & 10Penalty-10 yds

SOUTH FLORIDA Penalty, Offensive Holding (Dustyn Hall) to the SFla 23

2nd & 20Rush+16 ydsPPA +1.06

Jaren Mangham run for 16 yds to the SFla 39

3rd & 4Rush+9 ydsPPA +2.14

Timmy McClain run for 9 yds to the SFla 48 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.62

Jaren Mangham run for 7 yds to the BYU 45

2nd & 3Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.20

Jaren Mangham run for 5 yds to the BYU 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +0.37

Timmy McClain pass complete to Omarion Dollison for 10 yds to the BYU 30 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.56

Jaren Mangham run for no gain to the BYU 30

2nd & 10Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.05

Timmy McClain pass complete to Omarion Dollison for 5 yds to the BYU 25

3rd & 5Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.77

Timmy McClain pass incomplete to Omarion Dollison

4th & 5Field Goal Good+42 yds

Spencer Shrader 42 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.33

Baylor Romney pass complete to Masen Wake for 6 yds to the BYU 31

2nd & 4Rush+10 ydsPPA +1.09

Tyler Allgeier run for 10 yds to the BYU 41 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+2 ydsPPA -0.68

Baylor Romney pass complete to Masen Wake for 2 yds to the BYU 43

2nd & 8Penalty-10 yds

BYU Penalty, Offensive Holding (Joe Tukuafu) to the BYU 33

2nd & 18Rush+25 ydsPPA +3.62

Lopini Katoa run for 25 yds to the SFla 42 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +0.45

Baylor Romney pass complete to Puka Nacua for 11 yds to the SFla 31 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.36

Baylor Romney pass complete to Masen Wake for 7 yds to the SFla 24

2nd & 3Penalty+15 yds

SOUTH FLORIDA Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Daquan Evans) to the SFla 9 for a 1ST down

1st & 9Passing Touchdown+9 ydsPPA +2.42

Baylor Romney pass complete to Neil Pau'u for 9 yds for a TD, (Justen Smith KICK)

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.70

Timmy McClain pass incomplete to Xavier Weaver

2nd & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.48

Kelley Joiner run for 8 yds to the SFla 33

3rd & 2Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.68

Timmy McClain run for a loss of 1 yard to the SFla 32

4th & 3Punt+42 yds

Andrew Stokes punt for 53 yds , Hobbs Nyberg returns for 42 yds to the SFla 43

0th & 3End of Half0 yds

End of 2nd Quarter

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.60

Jaren Mangham run for 7 yds to the SFla 32

2nd & 3Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.42

Jaren Mangham run for 5 yds to the SFla 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +1.04

Timmy McClain pass complete to Demarcus Gregory for 11 yds to the SFla 48 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.10

Jaren Mangham run for 5 yds to the BYU 47

2nd & 5Pass Reception+17 ydsPPA +1.09

Timmy McClain pass complete to Demarcus Gregory for 17 yds to the BYU 30 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.17

Kelley Joiner run for 3 yds to the BYU 27

2nd & 7Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.07

Timmy McClain pass complete to Xavier Weaver for 5 yds to the BYU 22

3rd & 2Rush+3 ydsPPA +0.31

Kelley Joiner run for 3 yds to the BYU 19 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +0.62

Timmy McClain pass complete to Demarcus Gregory for 9 yds to the BYU 10

2nd & 1Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.34

Jaren Mangham run for 2 yds to the BYU 8 for a 1ST down

1st & 8Sack-1 ydsPPA -0.42

Timmy McClain sacked by Earl Tuioti-Mariner for a loss of 1 yard to the BYU 9

2nd & 9Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.14

Timmy McClain run for 2 yds to the BYU 7

3rd & 7Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.03

Jaren Mangham run for 4 yds to the BYU 3

4th & 3Rushing Touchdown+3 ydsPPA +2.92

Xavier Weaver run for 3 yds for a TD, (Spencer Shrader KICK)

1st & 10Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +0.93

Baylor Romney pass complete to Gunner Romney for 11 yds to the BYU 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.16

Tyler Allgeier run for 4 yds to the BYU 40

2nd & 6Rush+13 ydsPPA +1.70

Tyler Allgeier run for 13 yds to the SFla 47 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Passing Touchdown+47 ydsPPA +3.61

Baylor Romney pass complete to Gunner Romney for 47 yds for a TD, (Justen Smith KICK)

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.37

Jaren Mangham run for 6 yds to the BYU 48

2nd & 4Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.70

Jaren Mangham run for 2 yds to the BYU 46

3rd & 2Rush+3 ydsPPA +1.15

Jaren Mangham run for 3 yds to the BYU 43

4th & 1Pass Reception+26 ydsPPA +2.66

Timmy McClain pass complete to Xavier Weaver for 26 yds to the BYU 17 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.18

Timmy McClain pass complete to Omarion Dollison for 6 yds to the BYU 11

2nd & 4Penalty+9 yds

BYU Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Kaleb Hayes) to the BYU 2 for a 1ST down

1st & 2Rushing Touchdown+2 ydsPPA +1.21

Jaren Mangham run for 2 yds for a TD, (Spencer Shrader KICK)

1st & 10Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.33

Baylor Romney pass complete to Gunner Romney for 6 yds to the BYU 31

2nd & 4Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.79

Tyler Allgeier run for 7 yds to the BYU 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+13 ydsPPA +1.19

Baylor Romney pass complete to Neil Pau'u for 13 yds to the SFla 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+27 ydsPPA +1.11

Baylor Romney pass complete to Puka Nacua for 27 yds to the SFla 22 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+14 ydsPPA +0.33

Baylor Romney pass complete to Isaac Rex for 14 yds to the SFla 8 for a 1ST down

1st & 8Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.12

Samson Nacua run for 3 yds to the SFla 5

2nd & 5Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.32

Baylor Romney pass incomplete to Puka Nacua

3rd & 5Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.29

Baylor Romney pass incomplete to Isaac Rex

4th & 5Blocked Field Goal+22 yds

Justen Smith 22 yd FG BLOCKED blocked by Darrien Grant

1st & 10Pass Reception+17 ydsPPA +0.69

Timmy McClain pass complete to Demarcus Gregory for 17 yds to the SFla 23 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.54

Jaren Mangham run for 1 yd to the SFla 24

2nd & 9Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.24

Jaren Mangham run for 2 yds to the SFla 26

3rd & 7Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +1.65

Timmy McClain pass complete to Xavier Weaver for 8 yds to the SFla 34 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+14 ydsPPA +1.33

Kelley Joiner run for 14 yds to the SFla 48 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.40

Timmy McClain run for 3 yds to the BYU 49

2nd & 7Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.36

Timmy McClain pass complete to Kelley Joiner for 6 yds to the BYU 43

3rd & 1Rush+3 ydsPPA +0.86

Jaren Mangham run for 3 yds to the BYU 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+13 ydsPPA +0.45

Jaren Mangham run for 13 yds to the BYU 27 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.04

Jaren Mangham run for 4 yds to the BYU 23

2nd & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.53

Timmy McClain pass incomplete to Xavier Weaver

3rd & 6Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.05

Timmy McClain run for 5 yds to the BYU 18

4th & 1Rush+1 ydsPPA +0.68

Jaren Mangham run for 1 yd to the BYU 17 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.42

Jaren Mangham run for a loss of 1 yard to the BYU 18

2nd & 11Pass Reception+17 ydsPPA +2.06

Timmy McClain pass complete to Xavier Weaver for 17 yds to the BYU 1 for a 1ST down

1st & 1Rush0 ydsPPA -0.96

Timmy McClain run for no gain to the BYU 1

2nd & 1Rush0 ydsPPA -0.55

Jaren Mangham run for no gain to the BYU 1

3rd & 1Rush0 ydsPPA -0.33

Jaren Mangham run for no gain to the BYU 1

4th & 1Rushing Touchdown+1 ydsPPA +2.79

Jaren Mangham run for 1 yd for a TD, (Spencer Shrader KICK)

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.13

Tyler Allgeier run for 4 yds to the SFla 43

2nd & 6Rush+9 ydsPPA +0.80

Tyler Allgeier run for 9 yds to the SFla 34 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.21

Tyler Allgeier run for 3 yds to the SFla 31

2nd & 7Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.23

Baylor Romney pass complete to Gunner Romney for 6 yds to the SFla 25

3rd & 1Rush+2 ydsPPA +0.25

Tyler Allgeier run for 2 yds to the SFla 23 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Fumble Recovery (Own)-5 ydsPPA -1.01

Baylor Romney run for a loss of 5 yards to the SFla 28 Baylor Romney fumbled, recovered by BYU Tyler Allgeier

2nd & 15Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.63

Tyler Allgeier run for 1 yd to the SFla 27

3rd & 14Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.15

Lopini Katoa run for 4 yds to the SFla 23

Situational Analysis

South Florida

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
50%
2 plays
44%
27 plays
2nd
50%
4 plays
50%
4 plays
60%
10 plays
75%
4 plays
3rd
50%
6 plays
67%
3 plays
40%
5 plays
100%
1 play
4th
83%
6 plays

BYU

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
69%
26 plays
100%
1 play
2nd
50%
2 plays
71%
7 plays
33%
3 plays
50%
2 plays
3rd
50%
2 plays
33%
3 plays
0%
1 play
0%
1 play
4th
100%
2 plays