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← Back to GamesSep 25, 2021Week 4
NavyNavy
20
-Final
28
HoustonHouston
Conference Game

House Prediction

Model Margin

Houston by 20.9

Home Win Probability

Houston 90%

Market (consensus)

Houston -20

Edge: Houston -20 (0.9 pts)

fitted_v1 · Sep 25, 2021

Line Movement

No line movement to chart

Sportsbook snapshots publish once a line is posted for this game.

Team1Q2Q3Q4QFinal
NavyNavy
7100320
HoustonHouston
7071428

Scoring Timeline

Q1Q2Q3Q4014280-77-107-1714-1721-1728-20
HoustonNavy

Drive Chart

Own 20Own 4050Opp 40Opp 20NAVHOUNAVHOUNAVNAVHOUNAVHOUHOUNAVHOUNAVHOUNAVHOUNAVHOUNAVHOUTD376ydDOWNS1060ydPUNT63ydPUNT615ydTD34ydFG1562ydPUNT38ydTD1189ydEND756ydMISS1268ydPUNT3-2ydTD743ydPUNT32ydTD781ydTO11ydTD526ydFG1356ydPUNT629ydDOWNS47ydEND3-7yd

Box Score

Team statistics comparing Navy and Houston
StatisticNavyHouston
Passing4-822-31
Pass Yards98257
Rush Yards197127
Total Yards295384
Turnovers10
3rd Down3-155-11
Penalties3-223-30
Possession31:5128:09

Player Leaders

Player Leaders

Navy
passing
Xavier Arline
3/6, 83 YDS
rushing
Xavier Arline
19 CAR, 64 YDS, 1 TD
receiving
Mychal Cooper
3 REC, 83 YDS
defense
Houston
passing
Clayton Tune
22/30, 257 YDS, 1 TD
rushing
Alton McCaskill
17 CAR, 74 YDS
receiving
Christian Trahan
4 REC, 65 YDS
defense

Play-by-Play

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.09

Xavier Arline run for 5 yds to the Navy 29

2nd & 5Penalty+15 yds

HOUSTON Penalty, Horse Collar Tackle on GREEN, Art enforced (15 Yards) to the Houst 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rushing Touchdown+40 ydsPPA +3.19

Xavier Arline run for 40 yds for a TD (Bijan Nichols KICK)

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.33

Alton McCaskill run for 6 yds to the Houst 31

2nd & 4Pass Reception+34 ydsPPA +2.77

Clayton Tune pass complete to Christian Trahan for 34 yds to the Navy 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.07

Alton McCaskill run for 4 yds to the Navy 31

2nd & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.74

Clayton Tune pass incomplete

3rd & 6Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.06

Clayton Tune pass complete to Marcus Jones for 5 yds to the Navy 26

4th & 1Rush+2 ydsPPA +1.04

Alton McCaskill run for 2 yds to the Navy 24 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.14

Alton McCaskill run for 3 yds to the Navy 21

2nd & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.48

Clayton Tune pass incomplete

3rd & 7Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.16

Alton McCaskill run for 6 yds to the Navy 15

4th & 1Rush0 ydsPPA -3.87

Ta'Zhawn Henry run for no gain to the Navy 15

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.19

Xavier Arline run for 3 yds to the Navy 18

2nd & 7Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.19

Isaac Ruoss run for 6 yds to the Navy 24

3rd & 1Rush+3 ydsPPA +0.68

Isaac Ruoss run for 3 yds to the Navy 27 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty-5 yds

NAVY Penalty, False Start (Kip Frankland) to the Navy 22

1st & 15Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.31

Xavier Arline run for 1 yd to the Navy 23

2nd & 14Fumble Recovery (Own)-2 ydsPPA -0.25

Xavier Arline run for a loss of 2 yards to the Navy 21 fumbled, recovered by Navy Xavier Arline

3rd & 16Rush-3 ydsPPA -0.08

Xavier Arline run for a loss of 3 yards to the Navy 18

4th & 19Punt0 yds

Riley Riethman punt for 47 yds , Marcus Jones returns for no gain to the Houst 35

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.41

Alton McCaskill run for 3 yds to the Houst 38

2nd & 7Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.36

Alton McCaskill run for 3 yds to the Houst 41

3rd & 4Rush+10 ydsPPA +2.24

Alton McCaskill run for 10 yds to the Navy 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -1.33

Alton McCaskill run for a loss of 1 yard to the 50 yard line

2nd & 11Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.99

Clayton Tune pass incomplete

3rd & 11Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.66

Clayton Tune pass incomplete

4th & 11Punt0 yds

Laine Wilkins punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Chance Warren at the Navy 18

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.43

Xavier Arline run for 1 yd to the Navy 19

2nd & 9Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.31

Carlinos Acie run for a loss of 1 yard to the Navy 18

3rd & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.02

James Harris II run for 4 yds to the Navy 22

4th & 6Punt+73 yds

Riley Riethman punt for 51 yds , Marcus Jones returns for 73 yds for a TD (Dalton Witherspoon KICK)

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.11

Isaac Ruoss run for 4 yds to the Navy 29

2nd & 6Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.42

Xavier Arline run for 2 yds to the Navy 31

3rd & 4Rush+4 ydsPPA +1.37

Isaac Ruoss run for 4 yds to the Navy 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.11

Carlinos Acie run for 5 yds to the Navy 40

2nd & 5Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.42

James Harris II run for 3 yds to the Navy 43

3rd & 2Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.76

Isaac Ruoss run for 1 yd to the Navy 44

4th & 1Rush+1 ydsPPA +2.03

Xavier Arline run for 1 yd to the Navy 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+19 ydsPPA +1.27

Xavier Arline pass complete to Mychal Cooper for 19 yds to the Houst 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.08

Kai Puailoa-Rojas run for 5 yds to the Houst 31

2nd & 5Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.40

James Harris II run for 2 yds to the Houst 29

3rd & 3Rush+11 ydsPPA +0.73

Isaac Ruoss run for 11 yds to the Houst 18 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.35

Xavier Arline run for no gain to the Houst 18

2nd & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.04

Isaac Ruoss run for 4 yds to the Houst 14

3rd & 6Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.35

Xavier Arline run for 1 yd to the Houst 13

4th & 5Field Goal Good+30 yds

Bijan Nichols 30 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.70

Clayton Tune pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Reception-4 ydsPPA -0.49

Clayton Tune pass complete to Ta'Zhawn Henry for a loss of 4 yards to the Houst 21

3rd & 14Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +0.37

Clayton Tune pass complete to Mulbah Car for 12 yds to the Houst 33

4th & 2Punt0 yds

Laine Wilkins punt for 56 yds, downed at the Navy 11

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.31

Xavier Arline run for 1 yd to the Navy 12

2nd & 9Rush+12 ydsPPA +0.93

Xavier Arline run for 12 yds to the Navy 24 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.89

James Harris II run for 8 yds to the Navy 32

2nd & 2Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.30

Isaac Ruoss run for 6 yds to the Navy 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.67

Isaac Ruoss run for 2 yds to the Navy 40

2nd & 8Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.36

Isaac Ruoss run for 3 yds to the Navy 43

3rd & 5Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.13

Xavier Arline run for 4 yds to the Navy 47

4th & 1Rush+13 ydsPPA +2.92

James Harris II run for 13 yds to the Houst 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+37 ydsPPA +1.72

Xavier Arline pass complete to Mychal Cooper for 37 yds to the Houst 3 for a 1ST down

1st & 3Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.44

Isaac Ruoss run for 2 yds to the Houst 1

2nd & 1Rushing Touchdown+1 ydsPPA +1.90

Isaac Ruoss run for 1 yd for a TD (Bijan Nichols KICK)

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.54

Alton McCaskill run for 1 yd to the Houst 24

2nd & 9Pass Reception+17 ydsPPA +2.09

Clayton Tune pass complete to Jeremy Singleton for 17 yds to the Houst 41 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.70

Clayton Tune pass complete to Alton McCaskill for 7 yds to the Houst 48

2nd & 3Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.55

Clayton Tune pass complete to Christian Trahan for 8 yds to the Navy 44 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+16 ydsPPA +0.65

Clayton Tune pass complete to Christian Trahan for 16 yds to the Navy 28 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.51

Clayton Tune pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.30

Clayton Tune run for 7 yds to the Navy 21

0th & 3End of Half0 yds

End of 2nd Quarter

1st & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +1.02

Alton McCaskill run for 9 yds to the Houst 26

2nd & 1Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.08

Clayton Tune pass complete to Christian Trahan for 7 yds to the Houst 33 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.15

Clayton Tune pass complete to Alton McCaskill for 4 yds to the Houst 37

2nd & 6Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.75

Alton McCaskill run for 1 yd to the Houst 38

3rd & 5Pass Reception+20 ydsPPA +3.04

Clayton Tune pass complete to Nathaniel Dell for 20 yds to the Navy 42 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.10

Ta'Zhawn Henry run for 4 yds to the Navy 38

2nd & 6Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.52

Clayton Tune pass complete to Marcus Jones for 6 yds to the Navy 32 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+11 ydsPPA +0.24

Ta'Zhawn Henry run for 11 yds to the Navy 21 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.39

Clayton Tune pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.23

Clayton Tune pass complete to KeSean Carter for 7 yds to the Navy 14

3rd & 3Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.57

Alton McCaskill run for a loss of 1 yard to the Navy 15

4th & 4Field Goal Missed+32 yds

Dalton Witherspoon 32 yd FG MISSED

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.36

James Harris II run for 2 yds to the Navy 22

2nd & 8Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.42

Xavier Arline run for a loss of 1 yard to the Navy 21

3rd & 9Sack0 ydsPPA -0.14

Xavier Arline sacked by Derek Parish for 0 yards to the Navy 18

4th & 12Punt+9 yds

Riley Riethman punt for 34 yds , Marcus Jones returns for 9 yds to the Navy 43

1st & 10Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.11

Clayton Tune pass complete to Seth Green for 4 yds to the Navy 39

2nd & 6Rush+9 ydsPPA +0.64

Alton McCaskill run for 9 yds to the Navy 30 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.08

Ta'Zhawn Henry run for 5 yds to the Navy 25

2nd & 5Penalty-5 yds

HOUSTON Penalty, False Start (Patrick Paul) to the Navy 30

2nd & 10Penalty-10 yds

TUNE, Clayton pass up the middle complete for 10 yards to CARTER, KeSean caught at the NAV24 and advanced to the NAV20 (MARSHALL, John). PENALTY HOU Holding on JENKINS, Tank enforced 10 yards from the NAV30 to the NAV40 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

2nd & 20Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.69

Clayton Tune pass complete to Alton McCaskill for 8 yds to the Navy 32

3rd & 12Pass Reception+15 ydsPPA +1.95

Clayton Tune pass complete to KeSean Carter for 15 yds to the Navy 17 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.45

Ta'Zhawn Henry run for 8 yds to the Navy 9

2nd & 2Penalty+7 yds

TUNE, Clayton pass to the left incomplete intended for TRAHAN, Christian thrown to the NAV0. PENALTY NAV Pass Interference on GLENN, Jamal enforced at the spot of the foul for 7 yards to the NAV2 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

1st & 2Rushing Touchdown+2 ydsPPA +1.21

Ta'Zhawn Henry run for 2 yds for a TD (Kyle Ramsey KICK)

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.30

Isaac Ruoss run for 3 yds to the Navy 28

2nd & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.56

Xavier Arline pass incomplete

3rd & 7Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.30

Xavier Arline run for a loss of 1 yard to the Navy 27

4th & 8Punt0 yds

Riley Riethman punt for 54 yds, downed at the Houst 19

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.23

Ta'Zhawn Henry run for 3 yds to the Houst 22

2nd & 7Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.18

Clayton Tune pass complete to Ta'Zhawn Henry for 3 yds to the Houst 25

3rd & 4Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +1.60

Clayton Tune pass complete to Nathaniel Dell for 10 yds to the Houst 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.16

Alton McCaskill run for 4 yds to the Houst 39

2nd & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.97

Clayton Tune pass incomplete

3rd & 6Pass Reception+14 ydsPPA +2.75

Clayton Tune pass complete to Jake Herslow for 14 yds to the Navy 47 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Passing Touchdown+47 ydsPPA +3.61

Clayton Tune pass complete to Marcus Jones for 47 yds for a TD (Kyle Ramsey KICK)

1st & 10Fumble Recovery (Opponent)+1 ydsPPA -0.92

run for 1 yd to the Navy 26 fumbled, recovered by Houst Malik Robinson

1st & 10Sack0 ydsPPA -0.47

Clayton Tune sacked by Diego Fagot for 0 yards to the Navy 31

2nd & 15Rush+10 ydsPPA +0.73

Alton McCaskill run for 10 yds to the Navy 21

3rd & 5Penalty+10 yds

TUNE, Clayton pass up the middle incomplete intended for TRAHAN, Christian thrown to the NAV11. PENALTY NAV Holding on HODGES, Johnny enforced 10 yards from the NAV21 to the NAV11 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.35

Ta'Zhawn Henry run for a loss of 1 yard to the Navy 12

2nd & 11Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +1.93

Clayton Tune pass complete to Nathaniel Dell for 11 yds to the Navy 1 for a 1ST down

1st & 1Rushing Touchdown+1 ydsPPA +0.94

Ta'Zhawn Henry run for 1 yd for a TD (Kyle Ramsey KICK)

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.09

James Harris II run for 5 yds to the Navy 30

2nd & 5Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.31

James Harris II run for 3 yds to the Navy 33

3rd & 2Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.50

James Harris II run for 1 yd to the Navy 34

4th & 1Rush+5 ydsPPA +1.95

Isaac Ruoss run for 5 yds to the Navy 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.11

Xavier Arline pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.28

Kai Puailoa-Rojas run for 6 yds to the Navy 45

3rd & 4Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.35

Xavier Arline run for 3 yds to the Navy 48

4th & 1Rush+5 ydsPPA +2.42

James Harris II run for 5 yds to the Houst 47 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+27 ydsPPA +1.00

Xavier Arline pass complete to Mychal Cooper for 27 yds to the Houst 20 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.29

James Harris II run for 1 yd to the Houst 19

2nd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.44

Xavier Arline pass incomplete

3rd & 9Rush0 ydsPPA -0.67

Xavier Arline run for no gain to the Houst 19

4th & 9Field Goal Good+36 yds

Bijan Nichols 36 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.09

Alton McCaskill run for 5 yds to the Houst 26

2nd & 5Rush+11 ydsPPA +1.19

Ta'Zhawn Henry run for 11 yds to the Houst 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+10 ydsPPA +0.96

Ta'Zhawn Henry run for 10 yds to the Houst 47 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.37

Clayton Tune pass complete to Jaylen Erwin for 6 yds to the Navy 47

2nd & 4Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.20

Clayton Tune pass incomplete

3rd & 4Sack0 ydsPPA -1.06

Clayton Tune sacked by Donald Berniardjr for 0 yards to the 50 yard line

4th & 7Punt0 yds

Laine Wilkins punt for 50 yds for a touchback

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.30

Chance Warren run for 3 yds to the Navy 28

2nd & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.56

Maasai Maynor pass incomplete

3rd & 7Sack0 ydsPPA -0.27

Maasai Maynor sacked by Atlias Bell for 0 yards to the Navy 17

4th & 18Pass Reception+15 ydsPPA +0.38

Maasai Maynor pass complete to Mark Walker for 15 yds to the Navy 32

No play data available

Situational Analysis

Navy

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
0%
1 play
43%
21 plays
0%
1 play
2nd
100%
2 plays
0%
4 plays
30%
10 plays
0%
1 play
3rd
50%
4 plays
25%
4 plays
0%
5 plays
0%
1 play
4th
100%
4 plays
100%
1 play

Houston

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
100%
2 plays
42%
26 plays
2nd
100%
2 plays
50%
8 plays
43%
7 plays
75%
4 plays
3rd
0%
1 play
83%
6 plays
100%
1 play
67%
3 plays
4th
50%
2 plays