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← Back to GamesSep 11, 2021Week 2
Air ForceAir Force
23
-Final
3
NavyNavy

House Prediction

Model Margin

Air Force by 14.7

Home Win Probability

Navy 14%

Market (consensus)

Navy +6

Edge: Air Force -6 (8.7 pts)

fitted_v1 · Sep 11, 2021

Line Movement

No line movement to chart

Sportsbook snapshots publish once a line is posted for this game.

Team1Q2Q3Q4QFinal
Air ForceAir Force
077923
NavyNavy
03003

Scoring Timeline

Q1Q2Q3Q4014283-03-73-143-23
NavyAir Force

Drive Chart

Own 20Own 4050Opp 40Opp 20AFNAVAFNAVAFNAVAFNAVAFAFNAVAFNAVAFNAVAFNAVAFNAVAFNAVAFNAVAFPUNT712ydPUNT3-1ydPUNT613ydPUNT3-1ydPUNT3-3ydPUNT38ydPUNT3-3ydFG732ydPUNT30ydMISS45ydPUNT34ydTD943ydPUNT36ydEND1-2ydPUNT3-3ydPUNT620ydPUNT30ydPUNT36ydPUNT30ydTD954ydSAF4-25ydTD758ydDOWNS1054ydEND917yd

Box Score

Team statistics comparing Air Force and Navy
StatisticAir ForceNavy
Passing3-103-10
Pass Yards4932
Rush Yards17636
Total Yards22568
Turnovers01
3rd Down7-181-12
Penalties5-382-27
Possession36:4823:12

Player Leaders

Player Leaders

Air Force
passing
Haaziq Daniels
3/10, 49 YDS
rushing
Brad Roberts
29 CAR, 97 YDS, 2 TD
receiving
Micah Davis
1 REC, 27 YDS
defense
Navy
passing
Maasai Maynor
3/5, 32 YDS
rushing
Xavier Arline
16 CAR, 31 YDS
receiving
Mychal Cooper
1 REC, 15 YDS
defense

Play-by-Play

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.30

Brad Roberts run for 3 yds to the AFA 28

2nd & 7Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.24

Haaziq Daniels run for 3 yds to the AFA 31

3rd & 4Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.19

Haaziq Daniels run for 3 yds to the AFA 34

4th & 1Rush+3 ydsPPA +1.75

Brad Roberts run for 3 yds to the AFA 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.11

DeAndre Hughes run for 5 yds to the AFA 42

2nd & 5Penalty-5 yds

AIR FORCE Penalty, delay of game (Haaziq Daniels) to the AFA 37

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.66

Haaziq Daniels pass incomplete to Brad Roberts

3rd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.34

Haaziq Daniels pass incomplete to Kyle Patterson, broken up by Mitchell West

4th & 10Punt0 yds

Charles Bein punt for 43 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Navy 20

1st & 10Rush-2 ydsPPA -0.70

Chance Warren run for a loss of 2 yards to the Navy 18

2nd & 12Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.18

Xavier Arline run for 7 yds to the Navy 25

3rd & 5Sack-6 ydsPPA -0.43

Xavier Arline sacked by Demonte Meeks for a loss of 6 yards to the Navy 19 NAVY Penalty, Offensive holding ( Yards) declined

4th & 11Punt0 yds

Kellen Grave de Peralta punt for 34 yds, downed at the AFA 47

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.41

Emmanuel Michel run for 3 yds to the 50 yard line

2nd & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.13

Haaziq Daniels pass incomplete to Kyle Patterson

3rd & 7Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +2.44

Haaziq Daniels pass complete to Kyle Patterson for 10 yds to the Navy 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.45

Brad Roberts run for 2 yds to the Navy 38

2nd & 8Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.75

Haaziq Daniels run for 1 yd to the Navy 37

3rd & 7Rush-3 ydsPPA -1.64

Brad Roberts run for a loss of 3 yards to the Navy 40

4th & 10Punt0 yds

Charles Bein punt for 29 yds, fair catch by Kevin Brennan at the Navy 11

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.31

James Harris II run for 1 yd to the Navy 12

2nd & 9Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.16

James Harris II run for 1 yd to the Navy 13

3rd & 8Fumble Recovery (Own)-3 ydsPPA -0.13

Xavier Arline run for a loss of 3 yards to the Navy 10 Xavier Arline fumbled, recovered by Navy

4th & 11Punt0 yds

Kellen Grave de Peralta punt for 50 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the AFA 40

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -1.12

Micah Davis run for no gain to the AFA 40

2nd & 10Rush-7 ydsPPA -1.28

Micah Davis run for a loss of 7 yards to the AFA 33

3rd & 17Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.03

Brad Roberts run for 4 yds to the AFA 37

4th & 13Punt0 yds

Charles Bein punt for 36 yds, downed at the Navy 27

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.12

Xavier Arline run for 4 yds to the Navy 31

2nd & 6Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.46

Xavier Arline run for 2 yds to the Navy 33

3rd & 4Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.32

Xavier Arline run for 2 yds to the Navy 35

4th & 2Punt0 yds

Kellen Grave de Peralta punt for 36 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the AFA 29 , Micah Davis returns for no gain to the AFA 29

1st & 10Rush-3 ydsPPA -1.15

Haaziq Daniels run for a loss of 3 yards to the AFA 26

2nd & 13Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.27

Haaziq Daniels pass incomplete to David Cormier

3rd & 13Rush0 ydsPPA -0.12

Haaziq Daniels run for no gain to the AFA 26

4th & 13Punt0 yds

Charles Bein punt for 12 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the AFA 38

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.42

Xavier Arline run for 2 yds to the AFA 36

2nd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.91

Xavier Arline pass incomplete to Mychal Cooper

3rd & 8Rush+26 ydsPPA +1.91

Xavier Arline run for 26 yds to the AFA 10 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.34

Xavier Arline run for a loss of 1 yard to the AFA 11

2nd & 11Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.15

Xavier Arline run for 2 yds to the AFA 9

3rd & 9Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.12

James Harris II run for 3 yds to the AFA 6

4th & 6Field Goal Good+23 yds

Bijan Nichols 23 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.26

Brad Roberts run for 3 yds to the AFA 25

2nd & 7Fumble Recovery (Own)-3 ydsPPA -0.65

Haaziq Daniels run for a loss of 3 yards to the AFA 18 Haaziq Daniels fumbled, recovered by AFA Haaziq Daniels

3rd & 14Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.01

Brad Roberts run for 4 yds to the AFA 22

4th & 10Punt+54 yds

Charles Bein punt for 54 yds , TEAM returns for a loss of 1 yard to the Navy 23 TEAM fumbled, recovered by AFA Kyle Patterson

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.23

DeAndre Hughes run for 2 yds to the Navy 21

2nd & 8Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.25

Brad Roberts run for 2 yds to the Navy 19

3rd & 6Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.45

Dane Kinamon run for 1 yd to the Navy 18

4th & 5Field Goal Missed+35 yds

Matthew Dapore 35 yd FG MISSED

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.47

James Harris II run for 1 yd to the Navy 21

2nd & 9Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.35

Xavier Arline run for a loss of 1 yard to the Navy 20

3rd & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.02

James Harris II run for 4 yds to the Navy 24

4th & 6Punt0 yds

Kellen Grave de Peralta punt for 19 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Navy 43

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.72

Brad Roberts run for 1 yd to the Navy 42

2nd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.06

Haaziq Daniels pass incomplete to David Cormier, broken up by Will Harbour

3rd & 9Rush+15 ydsPPA +2.39

Haaziq Daniels run for 15 yds to the Navy 27 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.15

Brad Roberts run for 3 yds to the Navy 24

2nd & 7Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.29

Brad Roberts run for 2 yds to the Navy 22

3rd & 5Rush+15 ydsPPA +0.99

Micah Davis run for 15 yds to the Navy 7 for a 1ST down

1st & 7Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.33

Haaziq Daniels run for 1 yd to the Navy 6

2nd & 6Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.10

DeAndre Hughes run for 3 yds to the Navy 3

3rd & 3Rushing Touchdown+3 ydsPPA +2.62

Brad Roberts run for 3 yds for a TD (Matthew Dapore KICK)

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.30

Xavier Arline run for 3 yds to the Navy 28

2nd & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.56

Xavier Arline pass incomplete to Chance Warren

3rd & 7Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.12

James Harris II run for 3 yds to the Navy 31

4th & 4Punt0 yds

Riley Riethman punt for 49 yds, downed at the AFA 20

1st & 10Rush-2 ydsPPA -0.70

TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the AFA 18

0th & 10End of Half0 yds

End of 2nd Quarter

1st & 10Penalty-12 yds

ACIE, Carlinos rush for 9 yards to the NAVY34 (Sanford,Vince), PENALTY NAVY personal foul (COOPER, Mychal) 12 yards to the NAVY13, NO PLAY.

1st & 22Rush0 ydsPPA -0.10

Xavier Arline run for no gain to the Navy 13

2nd & 22Rush+9 ydsPPA +0.09

Chance Warren run for 9 yds to the Navy 22

3rd & 13Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.09

Xavier Arline pass incomplete

4th & 13Punt0 yds

Riley Riethman punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Micah Davis at the AFA 38

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -1.09

Brad Roberts run for no gain to the AFA 38

2nd & 10Penalty-5 yds

AIR FORCE Penalty, false start (DeAndre Hughes) to the AFA 33

2nd & 15Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.28

Haaziq Daniels run for 7 yds to the AFA 40

3rd & 8Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +2.80

Haaziq Daniels pass complete to Kyle Patterson for 12 yds to the Navy 48 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.60

Brad Roberts run for 2 yds to the Navy 46

2nd & 8Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.16

Brad Roberts run for 4 yds to the Navy 42

3rd & 4Rush0 ydsPPA -1.10

Jorden Gidrey run for no gain to the Navy 42

4th & 4Punt0 yds

Charles Bein punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Kevin Brennan at the Navy 10

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.29

James Harris II run for 1 yd to the Navy 11

2nd & 9Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.21

Xavier Arline run for a loss of 1 yard to the Navy 10

3rd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.07

Xavier Arline pass incomplete

4th & 10Punt0 yds

Riley Riethman punt for 40 yds, downed at the 50 yard line

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.87

Brad Roberts run for 1 yd to the Navy 49

2nd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.07

Haaziq Daniels pass incomplete to DeAndre Hughes

3rd & 9Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.06

Haaziq Daniels run for 5 yds to the Navy 44

4th & 4Punt0 yds

Charles Bein punt for 44 yds for a touchback

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.24

James Harris II run for 3 yds to the Navy 23

2nd & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.44

Xavier Arline pass incomplete to Chance Warren

3rd & 7Sack-3 ydsPPA -0.26

Xavier Arline sacked by Demonte Meeks and Elijah Brockman for a loss of 3 yards to the Navy 20

4th & 10Punt0 yds

Riley Riethman punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Micah Davis at the AFA 46

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.16

Haaziq Daniels pass incomplete to Micah Davis

2nd & 10Rush+10 ydsPPA +1.93

Brad Roberts run for 10 yds to the Navy 44 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-2 ydsPPA -1.42

Haaziq Daniels run for a loss of 2 yards to the Navy 46

2nd & 12Rush-8 ydsPPA -2.09

Jorden Gidrey run for 2 yds to the AFA 44 AIR FORCE Penalty, Offensive holding (Micah Davis) to the AFA 46

2nd & 20Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.34

Brad Roberts run for 2 yds to the AFA 48

3rd & 18Sack-4 ydsPPA -0.51

Haaziq Daniels sacked by Clay Cromwell and J'arius Warren for a loss of 4 yards to the AFA 44

4th & 22Penalty+15 yds

Bein,Charles punt 54 yards to the NAVY2, downed, PENALTY NAVY roughing the kicker (JONES, Daniel) 15 yards to the NAVY41, 1ST DOWN AF, NO PLAY.

1st & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +0.86

Brad Roberts run for 9 yds to the Navy 32

2nd & 1Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.38

Brad Roberts run for 4 yds to the Navy 28 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rushing Touchdown+28 ydsPPA +2.76

Haaziq Daniels run for 28 yds for a TD (Matthew Dapore KICK)

1st & 10Rush-2 ydsPPA -0.89

Xavier Arline run for a loss of 2 yards to the Navy 23

2nd & 12Sack-9 ydsPPA -0.41

Chance Warren sacked by Ethan Erickson for a loss of 9 yards to the Navy 14

3rd & 21Rush+9 ydsPPA +0.05

Isaac Ruoss run for 9 yds to the Navy 23

4th & 12Safety-23 ydsPPA -1.68

TEAM run for a loss of 23 yards for a SAFETY

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -1.15

Brad Roberts run for no gain to the AFA 42

2nd & 10Pass Reception+27 ydsPPA +2.87

Haaziq Daniels pass complete to Micah Davis for 27 yds to the Navy 31 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+11 ydsPPA +0.22

Brad Roberts run for 11 yds to the Navy 20 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.21

Brad Roberts run for 2 yds to the Navy 18

2nd & 8Rush+11 ydsPPA +0.63

Brad Roberts run for 11 yds to the Navy 7 for a 1ST down

1st & 7Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.13

Brad Roberts run for 5 yds to the Navy 2

2nd & 2Rushing Touchdown+2 ydsPPA +2.07

Brad Roberts run for 2 yds for a TD (Matthew Dapore KICK)

1st & 10Pass Reception+15 ydsPPA +1.42

Maasai Maynor pass complete to Mychal Cooper for 15 yds to the Navy 47 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.37

Maasai Maynor run for 6 yds to the AFA 47

2nd & 4Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.43

Tyger Goslin run for 5 yds to the AFA 42 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.28

Maasai Maynor pass complete to Mark Walker for 6 yds to the AFA 36

2nd & 4Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.90

Maasai Maynor pass incomplete to Carlinos Acie

3rd & 4Penalty+4 yds

MAYNOR, Maasai pass incomplete to WALKER, Mark, PENALTY AF pass interference (Kelly,Zion) 4 yards to the AF32, 1ST DOWN NAVY, NO PLAY.

1st & 10Penalty+14 yds

MAYNOR, Maasai pass incomplete to GOSLIN, Tyger, PENALTY AF pass interference (Sanford,Vince) 14 yards to the AF18, 1ST DOWN NAVY, NO PLAY.

1st & 10Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +0.40

Maasai Maynor pass complete to Chance Warren for 11 yds to the AFA 7 for a 1ST down

1st & 7Sack-5 ydsPPA -0.72

Maasai Maynor sacked by Zion Kelly and Christopher Herrera for a loss of 5 yards to the AFA 12

2nd & 12Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.24

Maasai Maynor run for 1 yd to the AFA 11

3rd & 11Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.49

Maasai Maynor pass incomplete to Mychal Cooper, broken up by Vince Sanford

4th & 11Sack-3 ydsPPA -3.36

Maasai Maynor sacked by Elijah Brockman and Demonte Meeks for a loss of 3 yards to the AFA 14

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.35

Brad Roberts run for 1 yd to the AFA 15

2nd & 9Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.03

Haaziq Daniels run for 4 yds to the AFA 19

3rd & 5Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.90

Micah Davis run for 5 yds to the AFA 24 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.59

Brad Roberts run for 7 yds to the AFA 31

2nd & 3Rush-1 ydsPPA -1.10

Brad Roberts run for a loss of 1 yard to the AFA 30

3rd & 4Rush+5 ydsPPA +1.41

Omar Fattah run for 5 yds to the AFA 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-2 ydsPPA -1.32

TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the AFA 33

2nd & 12Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.52

TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the AFA 32

3rd & 13Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.21

TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the AFA 31

Situational Analysis

Air Force

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
23%
26 plays
2nd
33%
3 plays
0%
1 play
20%
15 plays
20%
5 plays
3rd
100%
1 play
50%
6 plays
67%
6 plays
0%
5 plays
4th
100%
1 play

Navy

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
27%
15 plays
0%
1 play
2nd
33%
3 plays
0%
6 plays
40%
5 plays
3rd
0%
2 plays
14%
7 plays
33%
3 plays
4th
0%
2 plays