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← Back to GamesSep 4, 2021Week 1

House Prediction

Model Margin

Cincinnati by 19.6

Home Win Probability

Cincinnati 88%

Market (consensus)

Cincinnati -22.5

Edge: Miami (OH) +22.5 (2.9 pts)

fitted_v1 · Sep 4, 2021

Line Movement

No line movement to chart

Sportsbook snapshots publish once a line is posted for this game.

Team1Q2Q3Q4QFinal
Miami (OH)Miami (OH)
0001414
CincinnatiCincinnati
211401449

Scoring Timeline

Q1Q2Q3Q40142842567-014-021-028-035-042-749-14
CincinnatiMiami (OH)

Drive Chart

Own 20Own 4050Opp 40Opp 20CINM(CINM(CINM(M(CINM(CINM(CINM(M(CINM(M(CINM(CINM(CINCINM(TD284ydPUNT543ydTD897ydPUNT3-2ydTD872ydDOWNS00ydPUNT723ydPUNT35ydDOWNS826ydTD568ydPUNT36ydTD549ydDOWNS834ydPUNT513ydTO447ydTO3-5ydDOWNS827ydPUNT3-5ydDOWNS832ydTD1086ydTD1375ydTD21ydTD783ydEND1-2yd

Box Score

Team statistics comparing Miami (OH) and Cincinnati
StatisticMiami (OH)Cincinnati
Passing9-2820-26
Pass Yards109295
Rush Yards169247
Total Yards278542
Turnovers03
3rd Down3-153-6
Penalties13-1006-45
Possession34:1525:45

Player Leaders

Player Leaders

Miami (OH)
passing
AJ Mayer
9/28, 109 YDS
rushing
Keyon Mozee
15 CAR, 80 YDS
receiving
Mac Hippenhammer
3 REC, 64 YDS
defense
Cincinnati
passing
Desmond Ridder
20/25, 295 YDS, 4 TD, 1 INT
rushing
Jerome Ford
12 CAR, 121 YDS, 1 TD
receiving
Tyler Scott
1 REC, 81 YDS, 1 TD
defense

Play-by-Play

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.20

Jerome Ford run for 3 yds to the Cincy 19

2nd & 7Passing Touchdown+81 ydsPPA +6.77

Desmond Ridder pass complete to Tyler Scott for 81 yds for a TD, (Cole Smith KICK)

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.23

Kevin Davis run for 3 yds to the MiaOh 22

2nd & 7Pass Reception+40 ydsPPA +3.57

AJ Mayer pass complete to Mac Hippenhammer for 40 yds to the Cincy 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-2 ydsPPA -1.18

Davion Johnson run for a loss of 2 yards to the Cincy 40

2nd & 12Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.59

AJ Mayer run for 2 yds to the Cincy 38

3rd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.00

AJ Mayer pass incomplete

4th & 10Punt0 yds

Dom Dzioban punt for 35 yds, downed at the Cincy 3

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.03

Jerome Ford run for 4 yds to the Cincy 7

2nd & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.24

Desmond Ridder pass incomplete

3rd & 6Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.53

Desmond Ridder pass complete to Jerome Ford for 6 yds to the Cincy 13 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.64

Jerome Ford run for 8 yds to the Cincy 21

2nd & 2Rush+50 ydsPPA +3.27

Jerome Ford run for 50 yds to the MiaOh 29 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +0.68

Desmond Ridder pass complete to Josh Whyle for 9 yds to the MiaOh 20

2nd & 1Rush+17 ydsPPA +0.65

Ryan Montgomery run for 17 yds to the MiaOh 3 for a 1ST down

1st & 3Penalty-5 yds

CINCINNATI Penalty, Illegal Formation (-5 Yards) to the MiaOh 8

1st & 8Passing Touchdown+8 ydsPPA +2.32

Desmond Ridder pass complete to Ryan Montgomery for 8 yds for a TD, (Cole Smith KICK)

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.49

Keyon Mozee run for 1 yd to the MiaOh 22

2nd & 9Pass Reception+2 ydsPPA -0.22

AJ Mayer pass complete to Davion Johnson for 2 yds to the MiaOh 24

3rd & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.21

AJ Mayer pass incomplete

4th & 7Penalty-5 yds

MIAMI OH Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the MiaOh 19

4th & 12Punt0 yds

Dom Dzioban punt for 53 yds, fair catch by Ryan Montgomery at the Cincy 28

1st & 10Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +1.32

Desmond Ridder pass complete to Jadon Thompson for 9 yds to the Cincy 37

2nd & 1Rush+9 ydsPPA +0.35

Desmond Ridder run for 9 yds to the Cincy 46 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +0.89

Desmond Ridder pass complete to Jadon Thompson for 12 yds to the MiaOh 42 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.28

Desmond Ridder pass complete to Tre Tucker for 6 yds to the MiaOh 36

2nd & 4Rush+11 ydsPPA +0.31

Jerome Ford run for 11 yds to the MiaOh 25 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-2 ydsPPA -0.68

Ryan Montgomery run for a loss of 2 yards to the MiaOh 27

2nd & 12Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.09

Desmond Ridder pass complete to Jordan Jones for 4 yds to the MiaOh 23

3rd & 8Passing Touchdown+23 ydsPPA +3.47

Desmond Ridder pass complete to Josh Whyle for 23 yds for a TD, (Cole Smith KICK)

No play data available
1st & 10Penalty+5 yds

CINCINNATI Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the MiaOh 40

1st & 5Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.43

AJ Mayer pass incomplete

2nd & 5Rush+7 ydsPPA +1.04

Keyon Mozee run for 7 yds to the MiaOh 47 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.41

Keyon Mozee run for 3 yds to the 50 yard line

2nd & 7Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +1.27

AJ Mayer pass complete to Mac Hippenhammer for 9 yds to the Cincy 41 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.47

Kenny Tracy run for 2 yds to the Cincy 39

2nd & 8Sack-3 ydsPPA -1.66

AJ Mayer sacked by Darrian Beavers for a loss of 3 yards to the Cincy 42

3rd & 11Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.90

AJ Mayer pass incomplete to Jack Sorenson

4th & 11Punt0 yds

Dom Dzioban punt for 26 yds, fair catch by Ryan Montgomery at the Cincy 16

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.46

Desmond Ridder run for 7 yds to the Cincy 23

2nd & 3Pass Reception-2 ydsPPA -0.89

Desmond Ridder pass complete to Tre Tucker for a loss of 2 yards to the Cincy 21

3rd & 5Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.23

Desmond Ridder pass incomplete

4th & 5Punt0 yds

Mason Fletcher punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Jalen Walker at the MiaOh 42

1st & 10Pass Reception+15 ydsPPA +1.21

AJ Mayer pass complete to Mac Hippenhammer for 15 yds to the Cincy 43 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.94

AJ Mayer pass incomplete to Jack Sorenson

2nd & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.61

Keyon Mozee run for 2 yds to the Cincy 41

3rd & 8Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.17

AJ Mayer run for 4 yds to the Cincy 37

4th & 4Penalty+5 yds

CINCINNATI Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the Cincy 32 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.61

AJ Mayer pass incomplete to Jalen Walker

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.83

AJ Mayer pass incomplete to Andrew Homer

3rd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.01

AJ Mayer pass incomplete to Jack Sorenson

4th & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.68

AJ Mayer pass incomplete to Mac Hippenhammer

1st & 10Sack-4 ydsPPA -1.38

Desmond Ridder sacked by Mike Brown for a loss of 4 yards to the Cincy 28

2nd & 14Pass Reception+47 ydsPPA +4.20

Desmond Ridder pass complete to Jadon Thompson for 47 yds to the MiaOh 25 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty-5 yds

CINCINNATI Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the MiaOh 30

1st & 15Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +0.46

Desmond Ridder pass complete to Jordan Jones for 9 yds to the MiaOh 21

2nd & 6Rush0 ydsPPA -0.48

Jerome Ford run for no gain to the MiaOh 21

3rd & 6Rushing Touchdown+21 ydsPPA +3.22

Jerome Ford run for 21 yds for a TD, (Cole Smith KICK)

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.05

Davion Johnson run for 4 yds to the MiaOh 14

2nd & 6Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.21

Keyon Mozee run for 2 yds to the MiaOh 16

3rd & 4Rush0 ydsPPA -0.21

Kevin Davis run for no gain to the MiaOh 16

4th & 4Punt0 yds

Dom Dzioban punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Ryan Montgomery at the MiaOh 49

1st & 10Rush+15 ydsPPA +0.83

Jerome Ford run for 15 yds to the MiaOh 34 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty-10 yds

CINCINNATI Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the MiaOh 44

1st & 20Pass Reception+13 ydsPPA +1.45

Desmond Ridder pass complete to Jerome Ford for 13 yds to the MiaOh 31

2nd & 7Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.40

Ethan Wright run for 2 yds to the MiaOh 29

3rd & 5Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.11

Desmond Ridder pass complete to Leonard Taylor for 4 yds to the MiaOh 25

4th & 1Rushing Touchdown+25 ydsPPA +3.65

Desmond Ridder run for 25 yds for a TD, (Cole Smith KICK)

1st & 10Rush+16 ydsPPA +1.42

Keyon Mozee run for 16 yds to the MiaOh 41 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.14

AJ Mayer pass incomplete to Jalen Walker

2nd & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.50

Keyon Mozee run for 2 yds to the MiaOh 43

3rd & 8Fumble Recovery (Own)+18 ydsPPA +3.16

AJ Mayer pass complete to Jack Sorenson for 18 yds Jack Sorenson fumbled, recovered by MiaOh Jack Sorenson for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty-5 yds

MIAMI OH Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Cincy 44

1st & 15Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.56

Kenny Tracy run for 2 yds to the Cincy 42

2nd & 13Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.03

AJ Mayer pass incomplete

3rd & 13Pass Reception+1 ydsPPA -0.68

AJ Mayer pass complete to Davion Johnson for 1 yd to the Cincy 41

4th & 12Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.71

AJ Mayer pass incomplete

0th & 12End of Half0 yds

End of 2nd Quarter

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.41

Keyon Mozee run for 3 yds to the MiaOh 38

2nd & 7Rush+13 ydsPPA +1.89

AJ Mayer run for 13 yds to the Cincy 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty-10 yds

MIAMI OH Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the MiaOh 41

1st & 20Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.45

Kevin Davis run for 2 yds to the MiaOh 43

2nd & 18Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.50

AJ Mayer pass incomplete

3rd & 18Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.02

Davion Johnson run for 5 yds to the MiaOh 48

4th & 13Punt0 yds

Dom Dzioban punt for 21 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Cincy 31

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.37

Jerome Ford run for 3 yds to the Cincy 34

2nd & 7Penalty+5 yds

MIAMI OH Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the Cincy 39

2nd & 2Rush+3 ydsPPA +0.04

Jerome Ford run for 3 yds to the Cincy 42 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.40

Desmond Ridder run for 6 yds to the Cincy 48

2nd & 4Penalty+15 yds

MIAMI OH Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (15 Yards) to the MiaOh 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty+15 yds

MIAMI OH Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Cedric Boswell) to the MiaOh 22 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Interception Return0 ydsPPA -4.35

Desmond Ridder pass intercepted Sterling Weatherford return for no gain to the MiaOh 13

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.40

AJ Mayer pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.08

Keyon Mozee run for 3 yds to the MiaOh 16

3rd & 7Sack-8 ydsPPA -0.21

AJ Mayer sacked by Jabari Taylor for a loss of 8 yards to the MiaOh 8

4th & 15Punt+44 yds

Dom Dzioban punt for 44 yds , Ryan Montgomery returns for a loss of 1 yard to the Cincy 47 Ryan Montgomery fumbled, recovered by MiaOh

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.05

AJ Mayer pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Reception+14 ydsPPA +1.76

AJ Mayer pass complete to Jack Sorenson for 14 yds to the Cincy 33 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.64

AJ Mayer pass incomplete to Jack Sorenson

2nd & 10Rush+10 ydsPPA +0.87

Keyon Mozee run for 10 yds to the Cincy 23 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.42

AJ Mayer pass incomplete to Mac Hippenhammer

2nd & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.17

Davion Johnson run for 3 yds to the Cincy 20

3rd & 7Rush0 ydsPPA -0.65

Keyon Mozee run for no gain to the Cincy 20

4th & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -3.10

AJ Mayer pass incomplete to Kevin Davis

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.56

Desmond Ridder pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.17

Ryan Montgomery run for 2 yds to the Cincy 22

3rd & 8Penalty+5 yds

MIAMI OH Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the Cincy 27

3rd & 3Sack-12 ydsPPA -0.68

Desmond Ridder sacked by Lonnie Phelps for a loss of 12 yards to the Cincy 15

4th & 15Punt0 yds

Mason Fletcher punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Jalen Walker at the MiaOh 41

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.68

Keyon Mozee run for 2 yds to the MiaOh 43

2nd & 8Rush+13 ydsPPA +1.93

Keyon Mozee run for 13 yds to the Cincy 44 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.32

Keyon Mozee run for 3 yds to the Cincy 41

2nd & 7Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.09

Kevin Davis run for 5 yds to the Cincy 36

3rd & 2Rush+13 ydsPPA +0.98

Keyon Mozee run for 13 yds to the Cincy 23 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.13

Kenny Tracy run for 3 yds to the Cincy 20

2nd & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.46

AJ Mayer pass incomplete

3rd & 7Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.08

AJ Mayer run for 4 yds to the Cincy 16

4th & 3Pass Reception+2 ydsPPA -3.67

AJ Mayer pass complete to Davion Johnson for 2 yds to the Cincy 14

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.27

Ethan Wright run for 2 yds to the Cincy 16

2nd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.27

Desmond Ridder pass incomplete

3rd & 8Penalty+5 yds

MIAMI OH Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the Cincy 21

3rd & 3Penalty+5 yds

MIAMI OH Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the Cincy 26 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.62

Jerome Ford run for 7 yds to the Cincy 33

2nd & 3Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.73

Desmond Ridder pass complete to Michael Young Jr. for 8 yds to the Cincy 41 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+19 ydsPPA +1.47

Desmond Ridder pass complete to Alec Pierce for 19 yds to the MiaOh 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +0.40

Desmond Ridder pass complete to Jadon Thompson for 11 yds to the MiaOh 29 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +0.18

Desmond Ridder pass complete to Alec Pierce for 10 yds to the MiaOh 19 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+15 ydsPPA +0.92

Desmond Ridder pass complete to Ethan Wright for 10 yds to the MiaOh 9 for a 1ST down MIAMI OH Penalty, Personal Foul (5 Yards) to the MiaOh 4 for a 1ST down

1st & 4Rush-4 ydsPPA -0.99

Jerome Ford run for a loss of 4 yards to the MiaOh 8

2nd & 8Passing Touchdown+8 ydsPPA +2.68

Desmond Ridder pass complete to Leonard Taylor for 8 yds for a TD, (Cole Smith KICK)

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.30

Kenny Tracy run for 3 yds to the MiaOh 28

2nd & 7Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.09

Kenny Tracy run for 4 yds to the MiaOh 32

3rd & 3Rush+7 ydsPPA +1.61

David Afari run for 7 yds to the MiaOh 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.11

David Afari run for 5 yds to the MiaOh 44

2nd & 5Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +1.06

AJ Mayer pass complete to Devon Dorsey for 8 yds to the Cincy 48 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-2 ydsPPA -1.54

David Afari run for a loss of 2 yards to the 50 yard line

2nd & 12Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.06

David Afari run for 5 yds to the Cincy 45

3rd & 7Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.07

David Afari run for 5 yds to the Cincy 40

4th & 2Rush+4 ydsPPA +2.08

David Afari run for 4 yds to the Cincy 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.23

Kenny Tracy run for 3 yds to the Cincy 33

2nd & 7Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.62

Kenny Tracy run for 1 yd to the Cincy 32

3rd & 6Penalty+15 yds

CINCINNATI Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Taj Ward) to the Cincy 17 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-2 ydsPPA -0.50

David Afari run for a loss of 2 yards to the Cincy 19

2nd & 12Rushing Touchdown+19 ydsPPA +3.08

Kenny Tracy run for 19 yds for a TD, (Graham Nicholson KICK)

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.66

Evan Prater run for 1 yd to the Cincy 29

2nd & 9Interception Return Touchdown+32 ydsPPA -7.48

Evan Prater pass intercepted for a TD John Saunders Jr. return for 32 yds for a TD, (Graham Nicholson KICK)

1st & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +1.02

Charles McClelland run for 9 yds to the Cincy 26

2nd & 1Rush+5 ydsPPA -0.10

Charles McClelland run for 5 yds to the Cincy 31 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+16 ydsPPA +1.51

Evan Prater run for 16 yds to the Cincy 47 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+17 ydsPPA +1.08

Evan Prater run for 7 yds to the CINCINNATI 46 for a 1ST down MIAMI OH Penalty, Defensive Holding (10 Yards) to the MiaOh 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+22 ydsPPA +0.46

Charles McClelland run for 22 yds to the MiaOh 14 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.31

Charles McClelland run for no gain to the MiaOh 14

2nd & 10Rushing Touchdown+14 ydsPPA +2.86

Evan Prater run for 14 yds for a TD, (Cole Smith KICK)

1st & 10Rush-2 ydsPPA -0.89

TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the MiaOh 23

Situational Analysis

Miami (OH)

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
0%
1 play
12%
25 plays
0%
2 plays
2nd
67%
3 plays
41%
17 plays
40%
5 plays
3rd
100%
2 plays
0%
1 play
22%
9 plays
33%
3 plays
4th
50%
2 plays
0%
2 plays
0%
1 play

Cincinnati

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
0%
1 play
64%
28 plays
100%
2 plays
2nd
71%
7 plays
33%
3 plays
43%
7 plays
50%
2 plays
3rd
0%
1 play
50%
4 plays
100%
1 play
4th
100%
1 play