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← Back to GamesSep 2, 2021Week 1

House Prediction

Model Margin

App State by 17.2

Home Win Probability

App State 85%

Market (consensus)

App State -9

Edge: App State -9 (8.2 pts)

fitted_v1 · Sep 2, 2021

Line Movement

No line movement to chart

Sportsbook snapshots publish once a line is posted for this game.

Team1Q2Q3Q4QFinal
East CarolinaEast Carolina
6031019
App StateApp State
1467633

Scoring Timeline

Q1Q2Q3Q401428427-614-617-620-620-927-933-1233-19
App StateEast Carolina

Drive Chart

Own 20Own 4050Opp 40Opp 20ECASECASECASECASECASECASECASECASECASASECASECASPUNT30ydPUNT35ydTD580ydTD766ydPUNT34ydTD978ydPUNT618ydFG1180ydPUNT38ydFG1151ydTO1035ydPUNT424ydFG1066ydTD286ydTO733ydPUNT750ydPUNT32ydTD360ydTO20ydFG1159ydPUNT39ydTD676ydEND3-3yd

Box Score

Team statistics comparing East Carolina and App State
StatisticEast CarolinaApp State
Passing22-4120-27
Pass Yards295259
Rush Yards86226
Total Yards381485
Turnovers21
3rd Down5-164-11
Penalties7-907-65
Possession28:0531:55

Player Leaders

Player Leaders

East Carolina
passing
Holton Ahlers
22/40, 295 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
rushing
Keaton Mitchell
4 CAR, 50 YDS
receiving
Keaton Mitchell
5 REC, 79 YDS, 1 TD
defense
App State
passing
Chase Brice
20/27, 259 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
rushing
Nate Noel
15 CAR, 126 YDS
receiving
Thomas Hennigan
4 REC, 114 YDS, 1 TD
defense

Play-by-Play

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.70

Holton Ahlers run for no gain to the ECaro 25

2nd & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.35

Keaton Mitchell run for no gain to the ECaro 25

3rd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.16

Holton Ahlers pass incomplete to Audie Omotosho

4th & 10Punt0 yds

Jonn Young punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Thomas Hennigan at the AppSt 30

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.86

Chase Brice pass incomplete to Corey Sutton

2nd & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.05

Camerun Peoples run for 5 yds to the AppSt 35

3rd & 5Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.49

Chase Brice pass incomplete to Thomas Hennigan

4th & 5Punt+3 yds

Xavier Subotsch punt for 48 yds , Tyler Snead returns for 3 yds to the ECaro 20

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.24

Rahjai Harris run for 3 yds to the ECaro 23

2nd & 7Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.07

Holton Ahlers run for 4 yds to the ECaro 27

3rd & 3Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +1.36

Holton Ahlers pass complete to Rahjai Harris for 7 yds to the ECaro 34 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+13 ydsPPA +1.24

Holton Ahlers pass complete to C.J. Johnson for 13 yds to the ECaro 47 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty-10 yds

Harris, Rahjai rush for no gain to the EASTCRLINA47, PENALTY EASTCRLINA holding (Johnson, C.J.) 10 yards to the EASTCRLINA37, NO PLAY.

1st & 20Passing Touchdown+63 ydsPPA +6.29

Holton Ahlers pass complete to Keaton Mitchell for 63 yds for a TD, (Owen Daffer PAT MISSED)

1st & 10Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.39

Chase Brice pass complete to Corey Sutton for 6 yds to the AppSt 40

2nd & 4Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.67

Chase Brice pass complete to Henry Pearson for 5 yds to the AppSt 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.42

Nate Noel run for 3 yds to the AppSt 48

2nd & 7Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +1.29

Chase Brice pass complete to Thomas Hennigan for 8 yds to the ECaro 44 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.50

Nate Noel run for 7 yds to the ECaro 37

2nd & 3Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.02

Chase Brice run for 3 yds to the ECaro 34 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Passing Touchdown+34 ydsPPA +2.94

Chase Brice pass complete to Thomas Hennigan for 34 yds for a TD, (Chandler Staton KICK)

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.80

Holton Ahlers pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.41

Holton Ahlers pass incomplete to Rahjai Harris

3rd & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.04

Holton Ahlers run for 4 yds to the ECaro 32

4th & 6Punt0 yds

Jonn Young punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Thomas Hennigan at the AppSt 22

1st & 10Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +1.17

Chase Brice pass complete to Jalen Virgil for 9 yds to the AppSt 31

2nd & 1Penalty-5 yds

APPALACHIAN ST Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the AppSt 26

2nd & 6Rush+13 ydsPPA +1.52

Camerun Peoples run for 13 yds to the AppSt 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.11

Chase Brice pass incomplete to Jalen Virgil

2nd & 10Pass Reception-3 ydsPPA -1.00

Chase Brice pass complete to Christan Horn for a loss of 3 yards to the AppSt 36

3rd & 13Pass Reception+13 ydsPPA +3.04

Chase Brice pass complete to Corey Sutton for 13 yds to the AppSt 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty-10 yds

Brice, Chase pass complete to Hennigan, Thomas for 15 yards to the EASTCRLINA36, PENALTY APP STATE holding (Hardy, Anderson) 10 yards to the APP STATE39, NO PLAY.

1st & 20Pass Reception+15 ydsPPA +2.33

Chase Brice pass complete to Corey Sutton for 15 yds to the ECaro 46

2nd & 5Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.14

Camerun Peoples run for 4 yds to the ECaro 42

3rd & 1Pass Reception+21 ydsPPA +1.33

Chase Brice pass complete to Miller Gibbs for 6 yds to the ECaro 36 for a 1ST down EAST CAROLINA Penalty, Personal Foul (Ja'Quan McMillian) to the ECaro 21 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rushing Touchdown+21 ydsPPA +2.63

Camerun Peoples run for 21 yds for a TD, (Chandler Staton KICK)

1st & 10Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.60

Holton Ahlers pass complete to C.J. Johnson for 7 yds to the ECaro 32

2nd & 3Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA +0.33

Holton Ahlers pass complete to C.J. Johnson for 4 yds to the ECaro 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.04

Holton Ahlers pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush-5 ydsPPA -0.97

Holton Ahlers run for 5 yds to the ECaro 41 EAST CAROLINA Penalty, Offensive Holding (Avery Jones) to the ECaro 31

2nd & 15Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +1.14

Holton Ahlers pass complete to Tyler Snead for 12 yds to the ECaro 43

3rd & 3Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.85

Holton Ahlers pass incomplete to Audie Omotosho

4th & 3Punt0 yds

Jonn Young punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Thomas Hennigan at the AppSt 16

1st & 10Rush+19 ydsPPA +1.34

Nate Noel run for 19 yds to the AppSt 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.71

Chase Brice pass complete to Christian Wells for 7 yds to the AppSt 42

2nd & 3Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.44

Chase Brice run for 5 yds to the AppSt 47 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +1.18

Nate Noel run for 9 yds to the ECaro 44

2nd & 1Pass Reception+18 ydsPPA +0.20

Chase Brice pass complete to Malik Williams for 3 yds to the ECaro 41 for a 1ST down EAST CAROLINA Penalty, Personal Foul (Ja'Quan McMillian) to the ECaro 26 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.47

Chase Brice pass incomplete to Malik Williams

2nd & 10Pass Reception+15 ydsPPA +0.67

Chase Brice pass complete to Christian Wells for 15 yds to the ECaro 11 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.17

Nate Noel run for 2 yds to the ECaro 9

2nd & 8Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.13

Nate Noel run for 6 yds to the ECaro 3

3rd & 2Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.38

Nate Noel run for a loss of 1 yard to the ECaro 4

4th & 3Field Goal Good+21 yds

Chandler Staton 21 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.07

Rahjai Harris run for 4 yds to the ECaro 19

2nd & 6Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.06

Rahjai Harris run for 4 yds to the ECaro 23

3rd & 2Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.37

Holton Ahlers pass incomplete to Tyler Snead

4th & 2Punt0 yds

Jonn Young punt for 54 yds, fair catch by Thomas Hennigan at the AppSt 23

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.10

Camerun Peoples run for 4 yds to the AppSt 27

2nd & 6Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.50

Camerun Peoples run for 1 yd to the AppSt 28

3rd & 5Pass Reception+18 ydsPPA +2.63

Chase Brice pass complete to Jalen Virgil for 18 yds to the AppSt 46 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+20 ydsPPA +1.25

Chase Brice pass complete to Milan Tucker for 20 yds to the ECaro 34 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.50

Camerun Peoples run for 1 yd to the ECaro 33

2nd & 9Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.52

Camerun Peoples run for 8 yds to the ECaro 25

3rd & 1Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.33

Camerun Peoples run for 7 yds to the ECaro 18 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.35

Chase Brice pass incomplete to Miller Gibbs

2nd & 10Pass Reception0 ydsPPA -0.42

Chase Brice pass complete to Malik Williams for no gain to the ECaro 18

3rd & 10Sack-8 ydsPPA -2.28

Chase Brice sacked by Suirad Ware for a loss of 8 yards to the ECaro 26

4th & 18Field Goal Good+43 yds

Chandler Staton 43 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +0.84

Holton Ahlers pass complete to Audie Omotosho for 10 yds to the ECaro 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+29 ydsPPA +2.23

Holton Ahlers pass complete to Jsi Hatfield for 29 yds to the AppSt 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.72

Holton Ahlers pass incomplete to Audie Omotosho

2nd & 10Pass Reception+1 ydsPPA -0.73

Holton Ahlers pass complete to Keaton Mitchell for 1 yd to the AppSt 35

3rd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.03

Holton Ahlers pass incomplete to Jsi Hatfield

4th & 9Rush+12 ydsPPA +2.83

Holton Ahlers run for 12 yds to the AppSt 23 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.42

TEAM pass incomplete

2nd & 10Sack-8 ydsPPA -2.05

Holton Ahlers sacked by Nick Hampton for a loss of 8 yards to the AppSt 31

3rd & 18Sack-9 ydsPPA -1.93

Holton Ahlers sacked by Tim Frizzell for a loss of 9 yards to the AppSt 40

4th & 27Pass Interception Return0 ydsPPA +0.06

Holton Ahlers pass intercepted, touchback. Ryan Huff return for no gain

1st & 10Rush+19 ydsPPA +1.57

Nate Noel run for 19 yds to the AppSt 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.91

Nate Noel run for 1 yd to the AppSt 41

2nd & 9Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.15

Chase Brice pass complete to Thomas Hennigan for 4 yds to the AppSt 45

3rd & 5Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.79

Chase Brice pass incomplete to Corey Sutton

4th & 5Punt0 yds

Xavier Subotsch punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Tyler Snead at the ECaro 14

1st & 10Rush+11 ydsPPA +0.58

Keaton Mitchell run for 11 yds to the ECaro 25 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+39 ydsPPA +3.07

Keaton Mitchell run for 39 yds to the AppSt 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.72

Holton Ahlers pass incomplete to Shane Calhoun

2nd & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.57

Rahjai Harris run for 8 yds to the AppSt 28

3rd & 2Rush-3 ydsPPA -1.46

Rahjai Harris run for a loss of 3 yards to the AppSt 31

4th & 5Rush+9 ydsPPA +1.97

Holton Ahlers run for 9 yds to the AppSt 22 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.22

Rahjai Harris run for 2 yds to the AppSt 20

2nd & 8Rush0 ydsPPA -0.46

Keaton Mitchell run for no gain to the AppSt 20

3rd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.68

Holton Ahlers pass incomplete to Tyler Snead

4th & 8Field Goal Good+38 yds

Owen Daffer 38 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Pass Reception+68 ydsPPA +4.07

Chase Brice pass complete to Thomas Hennigan for 68 yds to the ECaro 18 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Passing Touchdown+18 ydsPPA +2.59

Chase Brice pass complete to Corey Sutton for 18 yds for a TD, (Chandler Staton KICK)

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.11

Holton Ahlers run for 4 yds to the ECaro 29

2nd & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.65

Holton Ahlers pass incomplete to C.J. Johnson

3rd & 6Pass Reception+18 ydsPPA +2.75

Holton Ahlers pass complete to Rahjai Harris for 18 yds to the ECaro 47 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +0.74

Holton Ahlers pass complete to C.J. Johnson for 10 yds to the AppSt 43 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty+5 yds

Harris, Rahjai rush for no gain to the APP STATE43, PENALTY APP STATE offside (Harrington, Brendan) 5 yards to the APP STATE38, NO PLAY.

1st & 5Sack-7 ydsPPA -2.35

Holton Ahlers sacked by Brendan Harrington for a loss of 7 yards to the AppSt 45

2nd & 12Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.39

Holton Ahlers pass complete to Keaton Mitchell for 3 yds to the AppSt 42

3rd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.97

Holton Ahlers pass incomplete to Jsi Hatfield

4th & 9Punt0 yds

Jonn Young punt for 37 yds , Thomas Hennigan returns for no gain to the AppSt 5 Thomas Hennigan fumbled, recovered by AppSt Thomas Hennigan

1st & 10Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +0.30

Chase Brice pass complete to Christan Horn for 10 yds to the AppSt 15 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty-5 yds

APPALACHIAN ST Penalty, False Start (Cooper Hodges) to the AppSt 10

1st & 15Rush+12 ydsPPA +0.92

Nate Noel run for 12 yds to the AppSt 22

2nd & 3Rush+19 ydsPPA +1.51

Camerun Peoples run for 19 yds to the AppSt 41 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+17 ydsPPA +1.36

Nate Noel run for 2 yds to the ECaro 43 for a 1ST down EAST CAROLINA Penalty, Personal Foul (Isaiah Foote) to the ECaro 42 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.70

Nate Noel run for 1 yd to the ECaro 41

2nd & 9Rush-2 ydsPPA -1.48

Nate Noel run for a loss of 2 yards to the ECaro 43

3rd & 11Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.36

Chase Brice pass complete to Nate Noel for 3 yds to the ECaro 40

4th & 8Penalty-5 yds

APPALACHIAN ST Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the ECaro 45

4th & 13Punt0 yds

Xavier Subotsch punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Tyler Snead at the ECaro 13

1st & 10Sack-3 ydsPPA -0.53

Holton Ahlers sacked by Brendan Harrington and Tommy Dawkins Jr. for a loss of 3 yards to the ECaro 10

2nd & 13Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.04

Holton Ahlers run for 3 yds to the ECaro 13

3rd & 10Pass Reception+2 ydsPPA -0.05

Holton Ahlers pass complete to Keaton Mitchell for 2 yds to the ECaro 15

4th & 8Punt0 yds

Jonn Young punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Thomas Hennigan at the AppSt 40

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.68

Nate Noel run for 2 yds to the AppSt 42

2nd & 8Rush+46 ydsPPA +2.91

Nate Noel run for 46 yds to the ECaro 12 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rushing Touchdown+12 ydsPPA +2.53

Camerun Peoples run for 12 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed)

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.38

Camerun Peoples run for a loss of 1 yard to the ECaro 15

2nd & 11Pass Interception Return+20 ydsPPA -4.07

Chase Brice pass intercepted Ja'Quan McMillian return for 20 yds to the ECaro 20

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.36

Rahjai Harris run for 2 yds to the ECaro 22

2nd & 8Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.24

Rahjai Harris run for 2 yds to the ECaro 24

3rd & 6Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +1.30

Holton Ahlers pass complete to Tyler Snead for 6 yds to the ECaro 30 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +1.13

Holton Ahlers pass complete to Rahjai Harris for 12 yds to the ECaro 42 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+34 ydsPPA +1.88

Holton Ahlers pass complete to Rahjai Harris for 19 yds to the APP STATE 39 for a 1ST down APPALACHIAN ST Penalty, Personal Foul (Nick Ross) to the AppSt 24 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.32

Holton Ahlers pass complete to Jsi Hatfield for 7 yds to the AppSt 17

2nd & 3Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +0.30

Holton Ahlers pass complete to Keaton Mitchell for 11 yds to the AppSt 6 for a 1ST down

1st & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.48

Holton Ahlers pass incomplete

2nd & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.30

Holton Ahlers pass incomplete to Tyler Snead

3rd & 6Penalty-15 yds

Ahlers, Holton pass complete to Calhoun, Shane for 6 yards to the APP STATE0, PENALTY EASTCRLINA pass interference (Johnson, C.J.) 15 yards to the APP STATE21, NO PLAY.

3rd & 21Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.99

Holton Ahlers pass incomplete to Keaton Mitchell

4th & 0Field Goal Good+39 yds

Owen Daffer 39 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.33

Camerun Peoples run for 6 yds to the AppSt 31

2nd & 4Rush0 ydsPPA -0.87

Camerun Peoples run for no gain to the AppSt 31

3rd & 4Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.19

Chase Brice run for 3 yds to the AppSt 34

4th & 1Punt0 yds

Xavier Subotsch punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Tyler Snead at the ECaro 24

1st & 10Pass Reception0 ydsPPA -0.67

Holton Ahlers pass complete to Keaton Mitchell for no gain to the ECaro 24

2nd & 10Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.46

Holton Ahlers pass complete to Tyler Snead for 8 yds to the ECaro 32

3rd & 2Pass Reception+15 ydsPPA +2.26

Holton Ahlers pass complete to Jsi Hatfield for 15 yds to the ECaro 47 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty+15 yds

Ahlers, Holton pass incomplete to Hatfield, Jsi, PENALTY APP STATE pass interference (Jolly, Shaun) 15 yards to the APP STATE38, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN EASTCRLINA.

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.78

Holton Ahlers pass incomplete to Tyler Savage

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.99

Holton Ahlers pass incomplete to Rahjai Harris

3rd & 10Passing Touchdown+38 ydsPPA +4.87

Holton Ahlers pass complete to Ryan Jones for 38 yds for a TD, (Owen Daffer KICK)

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.82

Anderson Castle run for 1 yd to the ECaro 46

2nd & 9Rush-3 ydsPPA -1.67

Anderson Castle run for a loss of 3 yards to the ECaro 49

3rd & 12Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.75

Chase Brice run for a loss of 1 yard to the 50 yard line

Situational Analysis

East Carolina

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
0%
2 plays
42%
24 plays
100%
1 play
2nd
100%
2 plays
0%
3 plays
18%
11 plays
33%
3 plays
3rd
40%
5 plays
100%
2 plays
14%
7 plays
0%
2 plays
4th
100%
1 play
100%
1 play
100%
1 play

App State

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
55%
29 plays
100%
2 plays
2nd
75%
4 plays
40%
5 plays
55%
11 plays
0%
1 play
3rd
67%
3 plays
25%
4 plays
0%
1 play
33%
3 plays
4th