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← Back to GamesNov 27, 2021Week 13
Conference Game

House Prediction

Model Margin

Baylor by 21.3

Home Win Probability

Baylor 89%

Market (consensus)

Baylor -14

Edge: Baylor -14 (7.3 pts)

fitted_v1 · Nov 27, 2021

Line Movement

No line movement to chart

Sportsbook snapshots publish once a line is posted for this game.

Team1Q2Q3Q4QFinal
Texas TechTexas Tech
3701424
BaylorBaylor
10701027

Scoring Timeline

Q1Q2Q3Q4014287-010-317-1020-1027-1727-24
BaylorTexas Tech

Drive Chart

Own 20Own 4050Opp 40Opp 20BAYTTBAYTTBAYTTBAYTTBAYTTBAYTTTTBAYTTBAYTTBAYTTBAYTTTD375ydTO117ydFG632ydFG947ydPUNT38ydPUNT727ydPUNT1137ydTO44ydTD524ydTD975ydPUNT39ydEND11ydPUNT31ydMISS1766ydPUNT36ydFG1669ydTD575ydTD1058ydTD275ydDOWNS1356ydMISS1053yd

Box Score

Team statistics comparing Texas Tech and Baylor
StatisticTexas TechBaylor
Passing15-2420-34
Pass Yards262254
Rush Yards124180
Total Yards386434
Turnovers20
3rd Down3-89-19
Penalties3-383-25
Possession22:3437:26

Player Leaders

Player Leaders

Texas Tech
passing
Donovan Smith
15/23, 262 YDS, 2 TD
rushing
Tahj Brooks
14 CAR, 40 YDS, 1 TD
receiving
Travis Koontz
5 REC, 117 YDS, 1 TD
defense
Baylor
passing
Blake Shapen
20/34, 254 YDS, 2 TD
rushing
Abram Smith
30 CAR, 117 YDS, 1 TD
receiving
Trestan Ebner
4 REC, 118 YDS, 1 TD
defense
Terrel Bernard
2 TFL, 1 PD

Play-by-Play

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.70

Abram Smith run for no gain to the Bayl 25

2nd & 10Pass Reception+14 ydsPPA +1.93

Blake Shapen pass complete to Abram Smith for 14 yds to the Bayl 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Passing Touchdown+61 ydsPPA +4.86

Blake Shapen pass complete to Trestan Ebner for 61 yds for a TD, (Isaiah Hankins KICK)

1st & 10Fumble Recovery (Opponent)+17 ydsPPA -0.92

SaRodorick Thompson run for 17 yds to the TexTc 42 SaRodorick Thompson fumbled, forced by Jairon McVea, recovered by Bayl Mark Milton

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.29

Abram Smith run for 3 yds to the TexTc 39

2nd & 7Pass Reception+31 ydsPPA +1.27

Blake Shapen pass complete to Trestan Ebner for 31 yds to the TexTc 8 for a 1ST down

1st & 8Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.25

Abram Smith run for 6 yds to the TexTc 14

2nd & 14Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.39

Blake Shapen pass incomplete to Tyquan Thornton

3rd & 14Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.09

Blake Shapen pass complete to Tyquan Thornton for 4 yds to the TexTc 10

4th & 10Field Goal Good+28 yds

Isaiah Hankins 28 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.30

Tahj Brooks run for 3 yds to the TexTc 22

2nd & 13Penalty+5 yds

(10:15) Smith,Donovan pass complete to Brooks,Tahj for 6 yards to the TTU28 (Pitre,Jalen; Milton,Mark) PENALTY BAY Offside (Ika,Siaki) 5 yards from TTU22 to TTU27. NO PLAY.

2nd & 8Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +1.58

Donovan Smith pass complete to Travis Koontz for 11 yds to the TexTc 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.43

Tahj Brooks run for 3 yds to the TexTc 41

2nd & 7Rush+24 ydsPPA +2.41

Erik Ezukanma run for 24 yds to the Bayl 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+11 ydsPPA +0.29

Tahj Brooks run for 11 yds to the Bayl 24 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.14

Tahj Brooks run for 3 yds to the Bayl 21

2nd & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.48

Donovan Smith pass incomplete to J.J. Sparkman

3rd & 7Sack-7 ydsPPA -2.10

Donovan Smith sacked for a loss of 7 yards to the Bayl 28

4th & 14Field Goal Good+46 yds

Jonathan Garibay 46 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Kickoff Return (Offense)+17 yds

Trey Wolff kickoff for 62 yds , Trestan Ebner return for 17 yds to the Bayl 20

1st & 10Pass Reception+1 ydsPPA -0.47

Blake Shapen pass complete to Drew Estrada for 1 yd to the Bayl 21

2nd & 9Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.20

Trestan Ebner run for 2 yds to the Bayl 23

3rd & 7Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.03

Blake Shapen run for 5 yds to the Bayl 28

4th & 2Punt0 yds

Issac Power punt for 47 yds , Adrian Frye returns for no gain to the TexTc 25

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.60

Kaylon Geiger run for 7 yds to the TexTc 32

2nd & 3Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.52

Tahj Brooks run for 6 yds to the TexTc 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +1.03

Xavier White run for 8 yds to the TexTc 46

2nd & 2Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.24

Xavier White run for 6 yds to the Bayl 48 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.36

Tahj Brooks run for 3 yds to the Bayl 45

2nd & 7Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.39

Xavier White run for 3 yds to the Bayl 48

3rd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.77

Donovan Smith pass incomplete to McLane Mannix

4th & 10Punt0 yds

Austin McNamara punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Trestan Ebner at the Bayl 9

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.07

Abram Smith run for 5 yds to the Bayl 14

2nd & 5Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.37

Blake Shapen pass incomplete to Drew Estrada

3rd & 5Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.74

Blake Shapen pass complete to Drake Dabney for 6 yds to the Bayl 20 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.09

Abram Smith run for 4 yds to the Bayl 24

2nd & 6Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +1.14

Blake Shapen pass complete to Tyquan Thornton for 10 yds to the Bayl 34 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Sack-3 ydsPPA -1.39

Blake Shapen sacked by Tony Bradford Jr. for a loss of 3 yards to the Bayl 31

2nd & 13Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.37

Blake Shapen pass incomplete to Tyquan Thornton

3rd & 13Pass Reception+20 ydsPPA +3.34

Blake Shapen pass complete to Trestan Ebner for 20 yds to the TexTc 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty-15 yds

BAYLOR Penalty, UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct (-15 Yards) to the Bayl 36

2nd & 25Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.04

Blake Shapen run for 4 yds to the Bayl 40

3rd & 21Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.06

Blake Shapen pass complete to Trestan Ebner for 6 yds to the Bayl 46

4th & 15Punt0 yds

Issac Power punt for 54 yds for a touchback

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.36

Donovan Smith run for 2 yds to the TexTc 22

2nd & 8Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.19

Xavier White run for 6 yds to the TexTc 28

3rd & 2Penalty+5 yds

(08:34) Smith,Donovan rush for 1 yard gain to the TTU29 (Hall,Gabe) PENALTY BAY Offside (Ika,Siaki) 5 yards from TTU28 to TTU33, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.

1st & 10Penalty0 yds

(08:18) Brooks,Tahj rush for 0 yards to the TTU33 (Walcott,Al) PENALTY TTU Holding offsetting BAY Targeting offsetting. NO PLAY.

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.96

Tahj Brooks run for no gain to the TexTc 33

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.79

McLane Mannix run for 1 yd to the TexTc 34

2nd & 9Fumble Recovery (Own)-10 ydsPPA -1.09

Donovan Smith sacked by Raleigh Texada for a loss of 10 yards to the TexTc 24 Donovan Smith fumbled, recovered by Bayl Raleigh Texada , return for 0 yards

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.08

Abram Smith run for 5 yds to the TexTc 19

2nd & 5Rush+10 ydsPPA +0.18

Abram Smith run for 10 yds to the TexTc 9 for a 1ST down

1st & 9Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.09

Abram Smith run for 5 yds to the TexTc 4

2nd & 4Rush0 ydsPPA -0.36

Abram Smith run for no gain to the TexTc 4

3rd & 4Rushing Touchdown+4 ydsPPA +2.70

Abram Smith run for 4 yds for a TD, (Isaiah Hankins KICK)

1st & 10Rush+22 ydsPPA +1.98

Kaylon Geiger run for 22 yds to the TexTc 47 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.63

Donovan Smith pass complete to Tahj Brooks for 7 yds to the Bayl 46

2nd & 3Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.68

Tahj Brooks run for 2 yds to the Bayl 44

3rd & 1Rush+3 ydsPPA +0.90

Tahj Brooks run for 3 yds to the Bayl 41 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.88

Donovan Smith pass incomplete to J.J. Sparkman

2nd & 10Pass Reception+1 ydsPPA -0.82

Donovan Smith pass complete to Xavier White for 1 yd to the Bayl 40

3rd & 9Pass Reception+31 ydsPPA +2.51

Donovan Smith pass complete to Kaylon Geiger for 31 yds to the Bayl 9 for a 1ST down

1st & 9Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.52

Tahj Brooks run for 8 yds to the Bayl 1

2nd & 1Rushing Touchdown+1 ydsPPA +1.90

Tahj Brooks run for 1 yd for a TD, (Jonathan Garibay KICK)

1st & 10Kickoff Return (Offense)+7 yds

Trey Wolff kickoff for 60 yds , Trestan Ebner return for 7 yds to the Bayl 12

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.32

Blake Shapen run for 1 yd to the Bayl 13

2nd & 9Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.22

Abram Smith run for 7 yds to the Bayl 20

3rd & 2Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.28

Abram Smith run for 1 yd to the Bayl 21

4th & 1Punt+2 yds

Issac Power punt for 64 yds , Adrian Frye returns for 2 yds to the TexTc 17

4th & 1Punt+2 yds

Issac Power punt for 64 yds , Adrian Frye returns for 2 yds to the TexTc 9

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.28

Tahj Brooks run for 1 yd to the TexTc 10

0th & 10End of Half0 yds

End of 2nd Quarter

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.30

Tahj Brooks run for 3 yds to the TexTc 28

2nd & 7Penalty-15 yds

TEXAS TECH Penalty, UNR: Unnecessary Roughness (-15 Yards) to the TexTc 20

2nd & 15Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.15

Donovan Smith pass incomplete to Xavier White

3rd & 15Rush+13 ydsPPA +0.40

Donovan Smith run for 13 yds to the TexTc 33

4th & 2Punt0 yds

Austin McNamara punt for 55 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Bayl 12

1st & 10Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.07

Blake Shapen pass complete to R.J. Sneed for 5 yds to the Bayl 17

2nd & 5Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.18

Trestan Ebner run for 3 yds to the Bayl 20

3rd & 2Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.76

Trestan Ebner run for 5 yds to the Bayl 25 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.09

Blake Shapen pass complete to Ben Sims for 5 yds to the Bayl 30

2nd & 5Rush+11 ydsPPA +1.32

Abram Smith run for 11 yds to the Bayl 41 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.14

Blake Shapen pass incomplete to Monaray Baldwin

2nd & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.65

Drew Estrada run for 1 yd to the Bayl 42

3rd & 9Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +2.77

Blake Shapen pass complete to Drew Estrada for 10 yds to the TexTc 48 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.56

Blake Shapen pass complete to Drew Estrada for 7 yds to the TexTc 41

2nd & 3Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.07

Blake Shapen pass incomplete to R.J. Sneed

3rd & 3Rush+7 ydsPPA +1.26

Abram Smith run for 7 yds to the TexTc 34 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.21

Abram Smith run for 3 yds to the TexTc 31

2nd & 7Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.48

Blake Shapen pass complete to Tyquan Thornton for 8 yds to the TexTc 23 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.32

Abram Smith run for 1 yd to the TexTc 22

2nd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.51

Blake Shapen pass incomplete to Ben Sims

3rd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.77

Blake Shapen pass incomplete to R.J. Sneed

4th & 9Field Goal Missed+41 yds

Isaiah Hankins 41 yd FG MISSED

1st & 10Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.32

Donovan Smith pass complete to Erik Ezukanma for 6 yds to the TexTc 29

2nd & 4Rush0 ydsPPA -0.80

Tahj Brooks run for no gain to the TexTc 29

3rd & 4Penalty0 yds

TEXAS TECH Penalty, Offensive Holding (Seth Collins) declined

4th & 4Punt0 yds

Austin McNamara punt for 49 yds, fair catch by Trestan Ebner at the Bayl 22

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.40

Abram Smith run for 2 yds to the Bayl 24

2nd & 8Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.07

Trestan Ebner run for 4 yds to the Bayl 28

3rd & 4Rush+17 ydsPPA +2.46

Abram Smith run for 17 yds to the Bayl 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.16

Blake Shapen pass incomplete pass intercepted fumbled, recovered by TexTc

2nd & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.91

Trestan Ebner run for no gain to the Bayl 45

3rd & 10Pass Reception+24 ydsPPA +3.51

Blake Shapen pass complete to Drew Estrada for 24 yds to the TexTc 31 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.18

Trestan Ebner run for 3 yds to the TexTc 34

2nd & 13Pass Reception+15 ydsPPA +1.29

Blake Shapen pass complete to Tyquan Thornton for 15 yds to the TexTc 19 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.36

Blake Shapen pass incomplete to Drew Estrada

2nd & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.04

Trestan Ebner run for 5 yds to the TexTc 14

3rd & 5Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.04

Abram Smith run for 4 yds to the TexTc 10

4th & 1Rush+2 ydsPPA +0.65

Abram Smith run for 2 yds to the TexTc 8 for a 1ST down

1st & 8Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.29

Abram Smith run for 1 yd to the TexTc 9

2nd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.27

Blake Shapen pass incomplete to Tyquan Thornton

3rd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.39

Blake Shapen pass incomplete to Trestan Ebner

4th & 9Field Goal Good+27 yds

Isaiah Hankins 27 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Fumble Recovery (Own)+13 ydsPPA +1.12

Donovan Smith pass complete to for 13 yds fumbled, recovered by Bayl for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.89

Tahj Brooks run for 1 yd to the TexTc 37

2nd & 11Pass Reception+16 ydsPPA +2.61

Donovan Smith pass complete to Xavier White for 16 yds to the Bayl 47 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +1.01

Donovan Smith pass complete to Travis Koontz for 9 yds to the Bayl 38

2nd & 1Passing Touchdown+38 ydsPPA +2.60

Donovan Smith pass complete to McLane Mannix for 38 yds for a TD, (Jonathan Garibay KICK)

1st & 10Kickoff Return (Offense)+26 yds

Trey Wolff kickoff for 49 yds , Trestan Ebner return for 26 yds to the Bayl 42

1st & 10Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.40

Blake Shapen pass complete to Drake Dabney for 6 yds to the Bayl 48

2nd & 4Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.24

Blake Shapen pass incomplete to Drew Estrada

3rd & 4Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.77

Abram Smith run for 1 yd to the Bayl 49

4th & 3Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA +2.57

Blake Shapen pass complete to R.J. Sneed for 4 yds to the TexTc 47 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.35

Abram Smith run for 3 yds to the TexTc 44

2nd & 7Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.96

Blake Shapen pass complete to Abram Smith for 8 yds to the TexTc 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty+15 yds

(08:25) Shapen,Blake pass incomplete to Thornton,Tyquan PENALTY TTU Pass Interference (Williams,Rayshad) 15 yards from TTU36 to TTU21, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.

1st & 10Rush+11 ydsPPA +0.12

Abram Smith run for 11 yds to the TexTc 10 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.29

Blake Shapen pass incomplete to Drew Estrada

2nd & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.21

Abram Smith run for 1 yd to the TexTc 9

3rd & 9Passing Touchdown+9 ydsPPA +3.01

Blake Shapen pass complete to Ben Sims for 9 yds for a TD, (Isaiah Hankins KICK)

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.70

Donovan Smith pass incomplete to Erik Ezukanma

2nd & 10Passing Touchdown+75 ydsPPA +6.78

Donovan Smith pass complete to Travis Koontz for 75 yds for a TD, (Jonathan Garibay KICK)

1st & 10Kickoff Return (Offense)+14 yds

Trey Wolff kickoff for 47 yds , Trestan Ebner return for 14 yds to the Bayl 32

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.58

Abram Smith run for 2 yds to the Bayl 34

2nd & 8Rush+12 ydsPPA +1.92

Abram Smith run for 12 yds to the Bayl 46 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.42

Trestan Ebner run for 3 yds to the Bayl 49

2nd & 7Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.67

Abram Smith run for 2 yds to the TexTc 49

3rd & 5Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.16

Blake Shapen run for 4 yds to the TexTc 45

4th & 1Rush+1 ydsPPA +2.02

Abram Smith run for 1 yd to the TexTc 44 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.97

Abram Smith run for no gain to the TexTc 44

2nd & 10Rush+12 ydsPPA +1.51

Blake Shapen run for 12 yds to the TexTc 32 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+12 ydsPPA +0.25

Trestan Ebner run for 12 yds to the TexTc 20 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.03

Trestan Ebner run for 4 yds to the TexTc 16

2nd & 6Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.12

Trestan Ebner run for 3 yds to the TexTc 13

3rd & 3Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.33

Blake Shapen run for 1 yd to the TexTc 12

4th & 2Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -3.90

Blake Shapen pass incomplete to Abram Smith

4th & 2Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -3.90

Blake Shapen pass incomplete to Abram Smith

1st & 10Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.62

Donovan Smith pass complete to Erik Ezukanma for 8 yds to the TexTc 20

2nd & 2Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.73

Donovan Smith pass incomplete to Kaylon Geiger

3rd & 2Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +1.32

Donovan Smith pass complete to Travis Koontz for 12 yds to the TexTc 32 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +0.96

Donovan Smith pass complete to Travis Koontz for 10 yds to the TexTc 42 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.15

Donovan Smith pass incomplete to Erik Ezukanma

2nd & 10Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.30

Donovan Smith pass complete to Xavier White for 6 yds to the TexTc 48

3rd & 4Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.59

Donovan Smith run for 2 yds to the TexTc 46

4th & 6Pass Reception+19 ydsPPA +3.65

Donovan Smith pass complete to McLane Mannix for 19 yds to the Bayl 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.69

pass incomplete

2nd & 10Field Goal Missed+53 yds

Jonathan Garibay 53 yd FG MISSED

Situational Analysis

Texas Tech

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
42%
26 plays
2nd
67%
6 plays
0%
1 play
56%
9 plays
50%
2 plays
3rd
100%
2 plays
0%
1 play
33%
3 plays
100%
1 play
4th
100%
1 play

Baylor

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
35%
31 plays
2nd
0%
1 play
38%
8 plays
50%
16 plays
25%
4 plays
3rd
50%
4 plays
50%
6 plays
67%
6 plays
67%
3 plays
4th
60%
5 plays