Skip to main content
← Back to GamesOct 2, 2021Week 5
TexasTexas
32
-Final
27
TCUTCU
Conference Game

House Prediction

Model Margin

Texas by 1

Home Win Probability

TCU 46%

Market (consensus)

TCU +4

Edge: TCU +4 (3.0 pts)

fitted_v1 · Oct 2, 2021

Line Movement

No line movement to chart

Sportsbook snapshots publish once a line is posted for this game.

Team1Q2Q3Q4QFinal
TexasTexas
13103632
TCUTCU
1433727

Scoring Timeline

Q1Q2Q3Q4014287-37-1014-1317-1617-2320-2620-3227-32
TCUTexas

Drive Chart

Own 20Own 4050Opp 40Opp 20TCUTEXTCUTEXTCUTEXTCUTEXTEXTCUTEXTCUTEXTCUTEXTCUTEXTCUTEXTCUTEXTCUTEXTD213ydFG1036ydPUNT312ydTD899ydTO413ydFG43ydTD675ydTO515ydFG41ydFG1567ydTD760ydDOWNS621ydTO321ydEND59ydPUNT3-8ydTO711ydFG741ydFG756ydTD1275ydPUNT32ydDOWNS757ydTD1399ydUncategorized934yd

Box Score

Team statistics comparing Texas and TCU
StatisticTexasTCU
Passing12-2220-28
Pass Yards142182
Rush Yards272169
Total Yards414351
Turnovers13
3rd Down6-156-13
Penalties9-977-80
Possession32:4827:12

Player Leaders

Player Leaders

Texas
passing
Casey Thompson
12/22, 142 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
rushing
Bijan Robinson
35 CAR, 216 YDS, 2 TD
receiving
Jordan Whittington
3 REC, 79 YDS, 1 TD
defense
TCU
passing
Max Duggan
20/28, 182 YDS, 1 TD
rushing
Zach Evans
15 CAR, 113 YDS, 1 TD
receiving
Taye Barber
3 REC, 37 YDS
defense

Play-by-Play

1st & 10Kickoff Return (Offense)+87 yds

Cameron Dicker kickoff for 65 yds , JD Spielman return for 87 yds to the Texas 13

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.24

Max Duggan run for 1 yd to the Texas 12

2nd & 9Rushing Touchdown+12 ydsPPA +2.78

Zach Evans 12 Yd Run (Griffin Kell Kick)

2nd & 9Kickoff Return (Offense)+38 yds

Griffin Kell kickoff for 59 yds , D'Shawn Jamison return for 38 yds to the Texas 44

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.16

Casey Thompson pass incomplete to Bijan Robinson

2nd & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +1.11

Bijan Robinson run for 9 yds to the TCU 47

3rd & 1Rush+2 ydsPPA +0.95

Casey Thompson run for 2 yds to the TCU 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+16 ydsPPA +0.69

Casey Thompson pass complete to Bijan Robinson for 16 yds to the TCU 29 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.50

Bijan Robinson run for 8 yds to the TCU 21

2nd & 2Rush+7 ydsPPA -0.26

Bijan Robinson run for 7 yds to the TCU 14 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.10

Bijan Robinson run for 3 yds to the TCU 11

2nd & 7Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.16

Roschon Johnson run for 6 yds to the TCU 5

3rd & 1Penalty-5 yds

TEXAS Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the TCU 10

3rd & 6Sack-10 ydsPPA -1.95

Casey Thompson sacked by Dylan Horton for a loss of 10 yards to the TCU 20

4th & 16Field Goal Good+38 yds

Cameron Dicker 38 Yd Field Goal

1st & 10Penalty+7 yds

TEXAS Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (7 Yards) to the TCU 32 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.38

Max Duggan pass complete to Zach Evans for 3 yds to the TCU 35

2nd & 7Pass Reception+2 ydsPPA -0.49

Max Duggan pass complete to Taye Barber for 2 yds to the TCU 37

4th & 5Punt0 yds

Jordy Sandy punt for 62 yds, downed at the Texas 1

3rd & 5Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.54

Max Duggan pass incomplete

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.03

Bijan Robinson run for 4 yds to the Texas 5

2nd & 6Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.15

Bijan Robinson run for 2 yds to the Texas 7

3rd & 4Penalty+15 yds

TCU Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the Texas 22 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+41 ydsPPA +3.22

Casey Thompson run for 41 yds to the TCU 37 Casey Thompson fumbled, recovered by Texas

1st & 10Pass Reception-1 ydsPPA -0.94

Casey Thompson pass complete to Joshua Moore for a loss of 1 yard to the TCU 38

2nd & 11Rush-1 ydsPPA -1.22

Bijan Robinson run for a loss of 1 yard to the TCU 39

3rd & 12Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +1.34

Casey Thompson pass complete to Joshua Moore for 11 yds to the TCU 28

4th & 1Rush+1 ydsPPA +1.13

Roschon Johnson run for 1 yd to the TCU 27 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rushing Touchdown+27 ydsPPA +2.74

Bijan Robinson 27 Yd Run (Cameron Dicker Kick)

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.33

Zach Evans run for 6 yds to the TCU 31

2nd & 4Rush+15 ydsPPA +1.56

Zach Evans run for 15 yds to the TCU 46 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.92

Zach Evans run for 1 yd to the TCU 47

2nd & 9Fumble Recovery (Opponent)+15 ydsPPA -1.89

Derius Davis run for a loss of 9 yards to the TCU 23 Derius Davis fumbled, recovered by Texas D'Shawn Jamison , return for 15 yds to the TCU 23

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.42

Casey Thompson pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.17

Bijan Robinson run for 3 yds to the TCU 20

3rd & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.65

Casey Thompson pass incomplete

4th & 7Field Goal Good+38 yds

Cameron Dicker 38 Yd Field Goal

1st & 10Pass Reception+37 ydsPPA +2.98

Max Duggan pass complete to Quentin Johnston for 22 yds to the Texas 47 for a 1ST down TEXAS Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the Texas 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.78

Max Duggan run for no gain to the Texas 38

2nd & 10Pass Reception+23 ydsPPA +1.32

Max Duggan pass complete to Taye Barber for 23 yds to the Texas 15 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.18

Emari Demercado run for 2 yds to the Texas 13

2nd & 8Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.18

Zach Evans run for 2 yds to the Texas 11

3rd & 6Passing Touchdown+11 ydsPPA +2.91

JD Spielman 11 Yd pass from Max Duggan (Griffin Kell Kick)

3rd & 6Kickoff Return (Offense)+38 yds

Griffin Kell kickoff for 62 yds , D'Shawn Jamison return for 38 yds to the TEXAS 27 TEXAS Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the Texas 26

1st & 10Penalty-5 yds

TEXAS Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Texas 21

1st & 15Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.30

Bijan Robinson run for 7 yds to the Texas 28

2nd & 8Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +1.53

Casey Thompson pass complete to Jordan Whittington for 10 yds to the Texas 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.43

Bijan Robinson run for 3 yds to the Texas 41

2nd & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.96

Casey Thompson pass incomplete

3rd & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.56

Casey Thompson pass incomplete

4th & 7Punt+2 yds

Cameron Dicker punt for 52 yds , Derius Davis returns for 2 yds to the TCU 9 Derius Davis fumbled, recovered by Texas

1st & 9Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.25

Bijan Robinson run for 1 yd to the TCU 8

2nd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.27

Casey Thompson pass incomplete

3rd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.35

Casey Thompson pass incomplete

4th & 8Field Goal Good+26 yds

Cameron Dicker 26 Yd Field Goal

4th & 9Kickoff Return (Offense)+19 yds

Cameron Dicker kickoff for 59 yds , Emari Demercado return for 19 yds to the TCU 25

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.30

Zach Evans run for 3 yds to the TCU 28

2nd & 7Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.09

Max Duggan pass complete to Quentin Johnston for 4 yds to the TCU 32

3rd & 3Rush+6 ydsPPA +1.51

Zach Evans run for 6 yds to the TCU 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception-2 ydsPPA -1.43

Max Duggan pass complete to Derius Davis for a loss of 2 yards to the TCU 36

2nd & 12Pass Reception+18 ydsPPA +2.84

Max Duggan pass complete to Derius Davis for 18 yds to the Texas 46 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.34

Max Duggan pass complete to Zach Evans for 3 yds to the Texas 43

2nd & 7Rush+10 ydsPPA +0.98

Max Duggan run for 10 yds to the Texas 33 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.64

Max Duggan pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.36

Emari Demercado run for 7 yds to the Texas 26

3rd & 3Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.41

Max Duggan run for 2 yds to the Texas 24

4th & 1Rush+9 ydsPPA +1.03

Max Duggan run for 9 yds to the Texas 15 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.02

Max Duggan pass complete to Derius Davis for 4 yds to the Texas 11

2nd & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.34

Max Duggan pass incomplete

3rd & 6Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.12

Zach Evans run for 3 yds to the Texas 8

4th & 3Field Goal Good+25 yds

Griffin Kell 25 Yd Field Goal

4th & 3Kickoff Return (Offense)+14 yds

Griffin Kell kickoff for 39 yds , Luke Brockermeyer return for 14 yds to the Texas 40

1st & 10Penalty+5 yds

TCU Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the Texas 45

1st & 5Penalty+15 yds

TCU Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (15 Yards) to the TCU 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.27

Bijan Robinson run for 6 yds to the TCU 34

2nd & 4Rush+11 ydsPPA +0.26

Bijan Robinson run for 11 yds to the TCU 23 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.19

Bijan Robinson run for 6 yds to the TCU 17

2nd & 4Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.05

Casey Thompson pass complete to Roschon Johnson for 8 yds to the TCU 9 for a 1ST down

1st & 9Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.10

Roschon Johnson run for 3 yds to the TCU 6

2nd & 6Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.17

Roschon Johnson run for 2 yds to the TCU 4

3rd & 4Rushing Touchdown+4 ydsPPA +2.70

Bijan Robinson 4 Yd Run (Cameron Dicker Kick)

3rd & 5Kickoff Return (Offense)+18 yds

Cameron Dicker kickoff for 65 yds , JD Spielman return for 18 yds to the TCU 18

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.51

Max Duggan pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.20

Kendre Miller run for 1 yd to the TCU 19

3rd & 9Pass Reception+15 ydsPPA +1.86

Max Duggan pass complete to Derius Davis for no gain to the TCU 19 for a 1ST down TEXAS Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (15 Yards) to the TCU 34 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.11

Max Duggan run for 5 yds to the TCU 39

2nd & 5Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.41

Emari Demercado run for 3 yds to the TCU 42

3rd & 2Rush-3 ydsPPA -1.22

Max Duggan run for a loss of 3 yards to the TCU 39

4th & 5Punt0 yds

Jordy Sandy punt for 51 yds, downed at the Texas 10

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.15

Bijan Robinson run for 3 yds to the Texas 13

2nd & 7Pass Reception+18 ydsPPA +1.33

Casey Thompson pass complete to Joshua Moore for 3 yds to the Texas 16 for a 1ST down TCU Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the Texas 31 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Interception Return0 ydsPPA -1.39

Casey Thompson pass intercepted Nook Bradford return for no gain to the TCU 24

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.67

Max Duggan run for no gain to the TCU 24

2nd & 10Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +1.48

Max Duggan pass complete to Derius Davis for 10 yds to the TCU 34 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +1.06

Max Duggan pass complete to Quentin Johnston for 11 yds to the TCU 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.42

Max Duggan run for 3 yds to the TCU 48

2nd & 7Penalty-15 yds

TCU Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (-15 Yards) to the TCU 33

2nd & 22Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.19

Max Duggan pass incomplete

0th & 22End of Half0 yds

End of 2nd Quarter

1st & 10Kickoff Return (Offense)+15 yds

Griffin Kell kickoff for 57 yds , Xavier Worthy return for 15 yds to the Texas 23

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.27

Bijan Robinson run for 3 yds to the Texas 26

2nd & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.51

Casey Thompson pass incomplete

3rd & 7Sack-11 ydsPPA -0.40

Casey Thompson sacked by Dylan Horton for a loss of 11 yards to the Texas 15

4th & 18Punt0 yds

Cameron Dicker punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Derius Davis at the TCU 44

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.16

Zach Evans run for 4 yds to the TCU 48

2nd & 6Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.11

Max Duggan pass complete to Derius Davis for 5 yds to the Texas 47

3rd & 1Rush+7 ydsPPA +1.23

Zach Evans run for 7 yds to the Texas 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.85

Max Duggan pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +0.84

Zach Evans run for 9 yds to the Texas 31

3rd & 1Rush+2 ydsPPA +0.40

Max Duggan run for 2 yds to the Texas 29 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Sack+4 ydsPPA -0.05

Max Duggan sacked by Anthony Cook for a loss of 16 yards to the Texas 49 Max Duggan fumbled, recovered by Texas Anthony Cook , return for 0 yards , return for 4 yds to the Texas 49

1st & 10Penalty-15 yds

TEXAS Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (-15 Yards) to the Texas 34

1st & 25Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.02

Bijan Robinson run for 5 yds to the Texas 39

2nd & 20Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.02

Bijan Robinson run for 5 yds to the Texas 44

3rd & 15Pass Reception+37 ydsPPA +4.15

Casey Thompson pass complete to Jordan Whittington for 37 yds to the TCU 19 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.11

Bijan Robinson run for 3 yds to the TCU 16

2nd & 7Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.03

Roschon Johnson run for 4 yds to the TCU 12

3rd & 3Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.22

Casey Thompson run for 2 yds to the TCU 10

4th & 1Field Goal Good+28 yds

Cameron Dicker 28 Yd Field Goal

1st & 10Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.09

Max Duggan pass complete to Zach Evans for 5 yds to the TCU 30

1st & 10Rush+33 ydsPPA +1.55

Zach Evans run for 33 yds to the Texas 21 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty-10 yds

TCU Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Texas 31

1st & 20Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.27

Kendre Miller run for 7 yds to the Texas 24

2nd & 13Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.20

Kendre Miller run for 3 yds to the Texas 21

3rd & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.41

Max Duggan run for 2 yds to the Texas 19

4th & 8Field Goal Good+36 yds

Griffin Kell 36 Yd Field Goal

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.33

Casey Thompson run for 6 yds to the Texas 31

2nd & 4Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.72

Bijan Robinson run for 1 yd to the Texas 32

3rd & 3Rush+4 ydsPPA +1.32

Casey Thompson run for 4 yds to the Texas 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.41

Bijan Robinson run for 3 yds to the Texas 39

2nd & 7Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.36

Casey Thompson pass complete to Bijan Robinson for 6 yds to the Texas 45

3rd & 1Rush+1 ydsPPA +1.02

Casey Thompson run for 1 yd to the Texas 46 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -1.16

Roschon Johnson run for no gain to the Texas 46

2nd & 10Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +2.05

Casey Thompson pass complete to Keilan Robinson for 12 yds to the TCU 42 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.91

Casey Thompson pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Reception+1 ydsPPA -0.83

Casey Thompson pass complete to Keilan Robinson for 1 yd to the TCU 41

3rd & 9Rush+9 ydsPPA +2.16

Bijan Robinson run for 9 yds to the TCU 32 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Passing Touchdown+32 ydsPPA +2.87

Jordan Whittington 32 Yd pass from Casey Thompson (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.70

Max Duggan pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.23

Emari Demercado run for 2 yds to the TCU 27

3rd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.22

Max Duggan pass incomplete

4th & 8Punt0 yds

Jordy Sandy punt for 31 yds, fair catch by D'Shawn Jamison at the Texas 42

1st & 10Rush+17 ydsPPA +1.32

Bijan Robinson run for 17 yds to the TCU 41 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+14 ydsPPA +0.50

Bijan Robinson run for 14 yds to the TCU 27 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+17 ydsPPA +0.23

Bijan Robinson run for 17 yds to the TCU 10 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.18

Roschon Johnson run for 6 yds to the TCU 4

2nd & 0Penalty-5 yds

TEXAS Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the TCU 9

2nd & 9Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.20

Casey Thompson pass complete to Xavier Worthy for 7 yds to the TCU 2

3rd & 2Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.24

Bijan Robinson run for 1 yd to the TCU 1

4th & 1Rush0 ydsPPA -4.21

Bijan Robinson run for no gain to the TCU 1

1st & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +0.64

Zach Evans run for 9 yds to the TCU 10

2nd & 1Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.41

Zach Evans run for 1 yd to the TCU 11 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.24

Zach Evans run for 2 yds to the TCU 13

2nd & 8Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.14

Max Duggan pass complete to Quincy Brown for 6 yds to the TCU 19

3rd & 2Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.85

Max Duggan run for 7 yds to the TCU 26 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.34

Max Duggan run for 6 yds to the TCU 32

2nd & 4Pass Reception+25 ydsPPA +2.31

Max Duggan pass complete to JD Spielman for 25 yds to the Texas 43 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +0.51

Max Duggan pass complete to Taye Barber for 12 yds to the Texas 31 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.08

Max Duggan pass complete to Kendre Miller for 5 yds to the Texas 26

2nd & 5Pass Reception+15 ydsPPA +0.24

Max Duggan pass complete to Kendre Miller for 15 yds to the Texas 11 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.02

Max Duggan run for 4 yds to the Texas 7

2nd & 6Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.02

Kendre Miller run for 4 yds to the Texas 3

3rd & 2Rushing Touchdown+3 ydsPPA +2.55

Kendre Miller run for 3 yds for a TD, (Griffin Kell KICK)

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +1.00

Bijan Robinson run for 8 yds to the Texas 38

2nd & 2Rush+4 ydsPPA +0.13

Bijan Robinson run for 4 yds to the Texas 42 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -1.15

Bijan Robinson run for no gain to the Texas 42

2nd & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.15

Bijan Robinson run for 4 yds to the Texas 46

3rd & 6Rush+6 ydsPPA +2.17

Bijan Robinson run for 6 yds to the TCU 48 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+13 ydsPPA +0.71

Bijan Robinson run for 13 yds to the TCU 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.69

TEAM run for no gain to the TCU 35

2nd & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -1.13

TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the TCU 36

3rd & 11Rush0 ydsPPA -1.01

TEAM run for no gain to the TCU 36

Situational Analysis

Texas

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
45%
31 plays
100%
2 plays
2nd
50%
2 plays
40%
5 plays
47%
15 plays
50%
2 plays
3rd
60%
5 plays
67%
3 plays
20%
5 plays
67%
3 plays
4th
50%
2 plays

TCU

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
34%
29 plays
100%
1 play
2nd
0%
1 play
57%
7 plays
54%
13 plays
33%
3 plays
3rd
71%
7 plays
33%
3 plays
33%
3 plays
4th
100%
1 play