Skip to main content
← Back to GamesOct 2, 2021Week 5
Conference Game

House Prediction

Model Margin

Oklahoma State by 6.7

Home Win Probability

Oklahoma State 62%

Market (consensus)

Oklahoma State -4

Edge: Oklahoma State -4 (2.7 pts)

fitted_v1 · Oct 2, 2021

Line Movement

No line movement to chart

Sportsbook snapshots publish once a line is posted for this game.

Team1Q2Q3Q4QFinal
BaylorBaylor
007714
Oklahoma StateOklahoma State
7701024

Scoring Timeline

Q1Q2Q3Q4014287-014-017-717-1424-14
Oklahoma StateBaylor

Drive Chart

Own 20Own 4050Opp 40Opp 20OSBAYOSBAYOSBAYOSBAYOSBAYOSBAYOSBAYOSBAYOSBAYOSBAYOSBAYOSBAYOSBAYOSTD1275ydPUNT538ydTO516ydPUNT3-8ydTO1367ydPUNT37ydPUNT615ydPUNT444ydPUNT3-1ydPUNT33ydTD669ydPUNT25ydEND1-5ydPUNT921ydTO36ydPUNT3-5ydPUNT519ydTD463ydFG1072ydTD784ydPUNT620ydDOWNS46ydPUNT30ydPUNT36ydTD856ydDOWNS626ydEND2-9yd

Box Score

Team statistics comparing Baylor and Oklahoma State
StatisticBaylorOklahoma State
Passing13-2713-23
Pass Yards173182
Rush Yards107219
Total Yards280401
Turnovers03
3rd Down3-158-19
Penalties9-586-60
Possession25:2734:33

Player Leaders

Player Leaders

Baylor
passing
Gerry Bohannon
13/27, 173 YDS
rushing
Abram Smith
10 CAR, 97 YDS, 1 TD
receiving
Drew Estrada
6 REC, 88 YDS
defense
Oklahoma State
passing
Spencer Sanders
13/23, 182 YDS, 1 TD, 3 INT
rushing
Jaylen Warren
36 CAR, 125 YDS, 2 TD
receiving
Davontavean Martin
6 REC, 110 YDS
defense

Play-by-Play

1st & 10Rush+21 ydsPPA +1.89

Jaylen Warren run for 21 yds to the OKSt 46 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+15 ydsPPA +1.04

Spencer Sanders pass complete to Tay Martin for 15 yds to the Bayl 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.26

Jaylen Warren run for 3 yds to the Bayl 36

2nd & 7Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.29

Jaylen Warren run for 3 yds to the Bayl 33

3rd & 4Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +1.01

Spencer Sanders pass complete to Tay Martin for 9 yds to the Bayl 24 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.43

Spencer Sanders pass incomplete to Jaylen Warren

2nd & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.36

Jaylen Warren run for 8 yds to the Bayl 16

3rd & 2Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.38

Spencer Sanders run for 1 yd to the Bayl 15

4th & 1Rush+2 ydsPPA +0.59

Jaylen Warren run for 2 yds to the Bayl 13 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.18

Jaylen Warren run for 6 yds to the Bayl 7

2nd & 4Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.45

Spencer Sanders run for a loss of 1 yard to the Bayl 8

3rd & 5Rushing Touchdown+8 ydsPPA +2.81

Jaylen Warren run for 8 yds for a TD (Tanner Brown KICK)

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.38

Abram Smith run for 7 yds to the Bayl 17

2nd & 3Pass Reception+37 ydsPPA +2.87

Gerry Bohanon pass complete to Drew Estrada for 37 yds to the OKSt 46 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.03

Gerry Bohanon pass incomplete to Tyquan Thornton

2nd & 10Penalty-5 yds

BAYLOR Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Bayl 49

2nd & 15Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.81

Gerry Bohanon pass incomplete to Trestan Ebner

3rd & 15Pass Reception-1 ydsPPA -0.54

Gerry Bohanon pass complete to Drew Estrada for a loss of 1 yard to the Bayl 48

4th & 16Punt0 yds

Issac Power punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Brennan Presley at the OKSt 12

1st & 10Penalty-5 yds

OKLAHOMA ST Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the OKSt 7

1st & 15Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.13

Jaylen Warren run for 1 yd to the OKSt 8

2nd & 14Pass Reception+16 ydsPPA +1.12

Spencer Sanders pass complete to Tay Martin for 16 yds to the OKSt 24 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.43

Jaylen Warren run for 2 yds to the OKSt 26

2nd & 8Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.30

Jaylen Warren run for 2 yds to the OKSt 28

3rd & 6Pass Interception Return+2 ydsPPA -0.12

Spencer Sanders pass intercepted Bryson Jackson return for 2 yds to the OKSt 36

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.90

Drew Estrada run for a loss of 1 yard to the OKSt 37

2nd & 11Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.76

Abram Smith run for 1 yd to the OKSt 36

3rd & 10Sack-8 ydsPPA -2.17

Gerry Bohanon sacked by Jarrick Bernard-Converse and Brendon Evers for a loss of 8 yards to the OKSt 44

4th & 18Punt0 yds

Issac Power punt for 29 yds, fair catch by Brennan Presley at the OKSt 15

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.19

Jaylen Warren run for 3 yds to the OKSt 18

2nd & 7Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.14

Jaylen Warren run for 3 yds to the OKSt 21

3rd & 4Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.94

Spencer Sanders run for 5 yds to the OKSt 26 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.61

Dominic Richardson run for 1 yd to the OKSt 27

2nd & 9Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.38

Spencer Sanders run for 7 yds to the OKSt 34

3rd & 2Rush+25 ydsPPA +3.00

Spencer Sanders run for 25 yds to the Bayl 41 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.65

Dominic Richardson run for 8 yds to the Bayl 33

2nd & 2Rush+5 ydsPPA -0.18

Dominic Richardson run for 5 yds to the Bayl 28 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.50

Dominic Richardson run for 8 yds to the Bayl 20

2nd & 2Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.31

Dominic Richardson run for 3 yds to the Bayl 17 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.42

Dominic Richardson run for a loss of 1 yard to the Bayl 18

2nd & 11Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.44

Spencer Sanders pass incomplete to Tay Martin

3rd & 11Pass Interception Return0 ydsPPA -3.57

Spencer Sanders pass intercepted JT Woods return for no gain to the Bayl 7

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.13

Trestan Ebner run for 3 yds to the Bayl 10

2nd & 7Rush0 ydsPPA -0.24

Trestan Ebner run for no gain to the Bayl 10

3rd & 7Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.01

Gerry Bohanon pass complete to Tyquan Thornton for 4 yds to the Bayl 14

4th & 3Punt0 yds

Issac Power punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Brennan Presley at the OKSt 41

1st & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +1.32

Jaylen Warren run for 9 yds to the 50 yard line

2nd & 1Rush-2 ydsPPA -1.92

Jaylen Warren run for a loss of 2 yards to the OKSt 48

3rd & 3Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA +1.57

Spencer Sanders pass complete to Blaine Green for 4 yds to the Bayl 48 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty-5 yds

Sanders, Spencer pass complete to Martin, Tay for 35 yards to the BAYLOR13, PENALTY OKLAST ineligible downfield on pass 5 yards to the OKLAST47, NO PLAY.

1st & 15Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.40

Jaylen Warren run for 3 yds to the 50 yard line

2nd & 12Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +1.27

Spencer Sanders pass complete to Brennan Presley for 10 yds to the Bayl 40

3rd & 2Rush-4 ydsPPA -2.00

Jaylen Warren run for a loss of 4 yards to the Bayl 44

4th & 6Punt0 yds

Tom Hutton punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Trestan Ebner at the Bayl 6

1st & 10Pass Reception+40 ydsPPA +2.71

Gerry Bohanon pass complete to Drew Estrada for 40 yds to the Bayl 46 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception-1 ydsPPA -1.38

Gerry Bohanon pass complete to Drew Estrada for a loss of 1 yard to the Bayl 45

2nd & 11Penalty-5 yds

BAYLOR Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Bayl 40

2nd & 16Pass Reception+14 ydsPPA +1.96

Gerry Bohanon pass complete to Josh Fleeks for 14 yds to the OKSt 46

3rd & 2Rush-4 ydsPPA -1.89

Trestan Ebner run for a loss of 4 yards to the 50 yard line

4th & 6Punt0 yds

Issac Power punt for 50 yds for a touchback

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.29

Dominic Richardson run for 6 yds to the OKSt 26

2nd & 4Penalty-10 yds

Richardson, Dominic rush for 5 yards to the OKLAST31, PENALTY OKLAST holding 10 yards to the OKLAST16, NO PLAY.

2nd & 14Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.06

Dominic Richardson run for 3 yds to the OKSt 19

3rd & 11Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.10

Spencer Sanders pass incomplete to Braden Cassity

4th & 11Punt0 yds

Tom Hutton punt for 50 yds , Trestan Ebner returns for no gain to the Bayl 31

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.89

Gerry Bohanon pass incomplete to Tyquan Thornton

2nd & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.21

Abram Smith run for 3 yds to the Bayl 34

3rd & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.38

Gerry Bohanon pass incomplete to R.J. Sneed

4th & 7Punt+6 yds

Issac Power punt for 41 yds , Brennan Presley returns for 6 yds to the OKSt 31

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.68

Jaylen Warren run for 7 yds to the OKSt 38

2nd & 3Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.72

Jaylen Warren run for 2 yds to the OKSt 40

3rd & 1Rush+6 ydsPPA +1.47

Jaylen Warren run for 6 yds to the OKSt 46 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +0.77

Spencer Sanders pass complete to Rashod Owens for 10 yds to the Bayl 44 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+12 ydsPPA +0.54

Spencer Sanders run for 12 yds to the Bayl 32 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Passing Touchdown+32 ydsPPA +2.87

Spencer Sanders pass complete to Rashod Owens for 32 yds for a TD (Tanner Brown KICK)

1st & 10Penalty0 yds

Bohanon, Gerry pass complete to Sims, Ben for 5 yards to the BAYLOR24, PENALTY BAYLOR illegal touching 0 yards to the BAYLOR19, NO PLAY.

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.25

Gerry Bohanon pass incomplete to Trestan Ebner

3rd & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.02

Abram Smith run for 5 yds to the Bayl 24

4th & 5Punt0 yds

Issac Power punt for 68 yds, downed at the OKSt 8

1st & 10Rush-5 ydsPPA -0.47

TEAM run for a loss of 5 yards to the OKSt 3

0th & 10End of Half0 yds

End of 2nd Quarter

1st & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +1.25

Gerry Bohanon run for 9 yds to the Bayl 34

2nd & 1Rush-2 ydsPPA -1.64

Trestan Ebner run for a loss of 2 yards to the Bayl 32

3rd & 3Rush+5 ydsPPA +1.42

Gerry Bohanon run for 5 yds to the Bayl 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.07

Gerry Bohanon pass incomplete to Tyquan Thornton

2nd & 10Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.12

Gerry Bohanon pass complete to Drake Dabney for 4 yds to the Bayl 41

3rd & 6Rush+7 ydsPPA +2.23

Gerry Bohanon run for 7 yds to the Bayl 48 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -1.14

Trestan Ebner run for no gain to the Bayl 48

2nd & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.60

Gerry Bohanon run for 2 yds to the 50 yard line

3rd & 8Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.66

Trestan Ebner run for 1 yd to the OKSt 49

4th & 7Penalty-5 yds

BAYLOR Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Bayl 46

4th & 12Punt0 yds

Issac Power punt for 32 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the OKSt 22

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.26

Jaylen Warren run for 3 yds to the OKSt 25

2nd & 7Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.21

Jaylen Warren run for 3 yds to the OKSt 28

3rd & 4Pass Interception Return+5 ydsPPA -0.26

Spencer Sanders pass intercepted Dillon Doyle return for 5 yds to the OKSt 31

1st & 10Rush-2 ydsPPA -0.89

Drew Estrada run for a loss of 2 yards to the OKSt 33

2nd & 12Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.90

Gerry Bohanon pass incomplete to Tyquan Thornton

3rd & 12Sack-3 ydsPPA -1.56

Gerry Bohanon sacked by Collin Oliver for a loss of 3 yards to the OKSt 36

4th & 15Punt0 yds

Issac Power punt for 29 yds, downed at the OKSt 7

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.19

Jaylen Warren run for 6 yds to the OKSt 13

2nd & 4Rush+4 ydsPPA +0.14

Jaylen Warren run for 4 yds to the OKSt 17 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.48

Jaylen Warren run for no gain to the OKSt 17

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.22

Spencer Sanders pass incomplete to Braden Cassity

3rd & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +0.22

Spencer Sanders run for 9 yds to the OKSt 26

4th & 1Punt0 yds

Tom Hutton punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Trestan Ebner at the Bayl 37

1st & 10Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +1.04

Gerry Bohanon pass complete to Drew Estrada for 8 yds to the Bayl 45

2nd & 2Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.36

Gerry Bohanon pass incomplete to Drew Estrada

3rd & 2Rush0 ydsPPA -0.97

Abram Smith run for no gain to the Bayl 45

4th & 2Rushing Touchdown+55 ydsPPA +6.35

Abram Smith run for 55 yds for a TD (Isaiah Hankins KICK)

1st & 10Pass Reception+21 ydsPPA +1.89

Spencer Sanders pass complete to Tay Martin for 21 yds to the OKSt 46 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Sack-3 ydsPPA -1.79

Spencer Sanders sacked by Cole Maxwell for a loss of 3 yards to the OKSt 43

2nd & 13Pass Reception+23 ydsPPA +3.04

Spencer Sanders pass complete to Tay Martin for 23 yds to the Bayl 34 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.66

Spencer Sanders pass incomplete to Braden Cassity

2nd & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.68

Jaylen Warren run for 1 yd to the Bayl 33

3rd & 9Pass Reception+26 ydsPPA +2.08

Spencer Sanders pass complete to Tay Martin for 26 yds to the Bayl 7 for a 1ST down

1st & 7Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.24

Jaylen Warren run for 2 yds to the Bayl 5

2nd & 5Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.11

Jaylen Warren run for 3 yds to the Bayl 2

3rd & 2Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.37

Jaylen Warren run for a loss of 1 yard to the Bayl 3

4th & 3Field Goal Good+20 yds

Tanner Brown 20 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Penalty-5 yds

BAYLOR Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the Bayl 11

1st & 15Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.19

Gerry Bohanon pass incomplete to R.J. Sneed

2nd & 15Rush+18 ydsPPA +1.49

Abram Smith run for 18 yds to the Bayl 29 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.37

Abram Smith run for 6 yds to the Bayl 35

2nd & 4Pass Reception+44 ydsPPA +2.78

Gerry Bohanon pass complete to Tyquan Thornton for 44 yds to the OKSt 21 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty+15 yds

Bohanon, Gerry pass incomplete to Sneed, R.J., PENALTY OKLAST pass interference (Bernard-Converse, Jarrick) 15 yards to the OKLAST6, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN BAYLOR.

1st & 6Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.02

Gerry Bohanon run for 4 yds to the OKSt 2

2nd & 2Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.39

Abram Smith run for 1 yd to the OKSt 1

3rd & 1Rushing Touchdown+1 ydsPPA +2.45

Gerry Bohanon run for 1 yd for a TD (Isaiah Hankins KICK)

1st & 10Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.60

Spencer Sanders pass complete to Jaylen Warren for 7 yds to the OKSt 32

2nd & 3Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.99

Spencer Sanders pass incomplete to Brennan Presley

3rd & 3Rush+5 ydsPPA +1.42

Jaylen Warren run for 5 yds to the OKSt 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty+5 yds

Warren, Jaylen rush for 3 yards to the OKLAST40, PENALTY BAYLOR substitution infraction 5 yards to the OKLAST42, NO PLAY.

1st & 5Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.82

Jaylen Warren run for 2 yds to the OKSt 44

2nd & 3Fumble Recovery (Own)-2 ydsPPA -1.71

Jaylen Warren run for a loss of 2 yards to the OKSt 42 Jaylen Warren fumbled, forced by Matt Jones, recovered by OKSt Hunter Woodard

3rd & 5Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.30

Spencer Sanders run for 3 yds to the OKSt 45

4th & 2Punt0 yds

Tom Hutton punt for 25 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Bayl 30

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.86

Gerry Bohanon pass incomplete to Trestan Ebner

2nd & 10Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.05

Gerry Bohanon pass complete to Drew Estrada for 5 yds to the Bayl 35

3rd & 5Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.41

Abram Smith run for 1 yd to the Bayl 36

4th & 4Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.09

Gerry Bohanon pass incomplete to Abram Smith

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.38

Jaylen Warren run for 2 yds to the Bayl 34

2nd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.85

Spencer Sanders pass incomplete to Tay Martin

3rd & 8Pass Reception-2 ydsPPA -1.44

Spencer Sanders pass complete to Tay Martin for a loss of 2 yards to the Bayl 36

4th & 10Punt0 yds

Tom Hutton punt for 30 yds, fair catch by Trestan Ebner at the Bayl 6

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.12

Trestan Ebner run for 3 yds to the Bayl 9

2nd & 7Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.03

Gerry Bohanon pass complete to Tyquan Thornton for 4 yds to the Bayl 13

3rd & 3Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.24

Trestan Ebner run for a loss of 1 yard to the Bayl 12

4th & 4Punt0 yds

Issac Power punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Brennan Presley at the OKSt 44

1st & 10Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +0.89

Spencer Sanders pass complete to Rashod Owens for 11 yds to the Bayl 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+12 ydsPPA +0.57

Spencer Sanders run for 2 yds to the Bayl 43 for a 1ST down BAYLOR Penalty, Defensive Holding (TJ Franklin) to the Bayl 33 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.34

Jaylen Warren run for 2 yds to the Bayl 31

2nd & 8Rush+19 ydsPPA +0.71

Spencer Sanders run for 6 yds to the Bayl 25 for a 1ST down BAYLOR Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (13 Yards) to the Bayl 12 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.02

Jaylen Warren run for 4 yds to the Bayl 8

2nd & 6Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.02

Jaylen Warren run for 4 yds to the Bayl 4

3rd & 2Penalty-10 yds

Sanders, Spencer pass incomplete to Warren, Jaylen, PENALTY OKLAST holding 10 yards to the BAYLOR14, NO PLAY.

3rd & 12Rush+10 ydsPPA +0.42

Spencer Sanders run for 10 yds to the Bayl 4

4th & 2Rushing Touchdown+4 ydsPPA +2.89

Jaylen Warren run for 4 yds for a TD (Tanner Brown KICK)

1st & 10Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.63

Gerry Bohanon pass complete to Ben Sims for 7 yds to the Bayl 34

2nd & 3Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.74

Gerry Bohanon pass complete to Ben Sims for 8 yds to the Bayl 42 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty+15 yds

Bohanon, Gerry pass incomplete to Sneed, R.J., PENALTY OKLAST sideline interference 15 yards to the OKLAST43, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN BAYLOR.

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.94

Gerry Bohanon pass incomplete to R.J. Sneed

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.06

Gerry Bohanon pass incomplete to Tyquan Thornton

3rd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.91

Gerry Bohanon pass incomplete to Drew Estrada

4th & 10Sack-4 ydsPPA -0.74

Gerry Bohanon sacked by Collin Oliver for a loss of 4 yards to the OKSt 47

1st & 10Rush-4 ydsPPA -1.99

TEAM run for a loss of 4 yards to the OKSt 43

2nd & 14Rush-5 ydsPPA -1.03

TEAM run for a loss of 5 yards to the OKSt 38

Situational Analysis

Baylor

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
0%
1 play
35%
17 plays
0%
1 play
2nd
40%
5 plays
100%
1 play
13%
8 plays
40%
5 plays
3rd
40%
5 plays
50%
2 plays
17%
6 plays
0%
2 plays
4th
100%
1 play
0%
1 play
0%
1 play

Oklahoma State

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
0%
1 play
50%
32 plays
0%
2 plays
2nd
0%
6 plays
25%
4 plays
30%
10 plays
50%
6 plays
3rd
57%
7 plays
50%
6 plays
67%
3 plays
33%
3 plays
4th
100%
2 plays