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← Back to GamesSep 25, 2021Week 4
Conference Game

House Prediction

Model Margin

Iowa State by 0.9

Home Win Probability

Baylor 46%

Market (consensus)

Baylor +7

Edge: Baylor +7 (6.1 pts)

fitted_v1 · Sep 25, 2021

Line Movement

No line movement to chart

Sportsbook snapshots publish once a line is posted for this game.

Team1Q2Q3Q4QFinal
Iowa StateIowa State
7610629
BaylorBaylor
7147331

Scoring Timeline

Q1Q2Q3Q40142842560-77-714-1021-1021-1321-1657-3331-29
BaylorIowa State

Drive Chart

Own 20Own 4050Opp 40Opp 20ISBAYISBAYISBAYISBAYISBAYBAYISISBAYISBAYISBAYISBAYISBAYTD1075ydTD875ydPUNT615ydTD656ydFG952ydTD975ydFG845ydPUNT3-3ydFG765ydEND1-1ydTO954ydFG955ydPUNT38ydPUNT516ydTD585ydPUNT3-11ydTO443ydPUNT49ydPUNT31ydFG4-1ydTD1375ydEND1-2yd

Box Score

Team statistics comparing Iowa State and Baylor
StatisticIowa StateBaylor
Passing22-3314-19
Pass Yards263159
Rush Yards216123
Total Yards479282
Turnovers11
3rd Down5-144-11
Penalties3-259-100
Possession35:3924:21

Player Leaders

Player Leaders

Iowa State
passing
Brock Purdy
22/33, 263 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
rushing
Breece Hall
27 CAR, 190 YDS, 2 TD
receiving
Chase Allen
7 REC, 98 YDS
defense
Baylor
passing
Gerry Bohannon
14/19, 159 YDS, 2 TD
rushing
Abram Smith
10 CAR, 47 YDS
receiving
R.J. Sneed
4 REC, 57 YDS
defense

Play-by-Play

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.59

Breece Hall run for 1 yd to the IowSt 24

2nd & 11Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +1.73

Brock Purdy pass complete to Xavier Hutchinson for 12 yds to the IowSt 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+30 ydsPPA +2.21

Breece Hall run for 30 yds to the Bayl 34 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+1 ydsPPA -0.50

Brock Purdy pass complete to Tarique Milton for 1 yd to the Bayl 33

2nd & 9Rush0 ydsPPA -0.84

Breece Hall run for no gain to the Bayl 33

3rd & 9Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.45

Brock Purdy pass complete to Chase Allen for 7 yds to the Bayl 26

4th & 2Rush+9 ydsPPA +1.25

Breece Hall run for 9 yds to the Bayl 17 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.34

Breece Hall run for no gain to the Bayl 17

2nd & 10Pass Reception+15 ydsPPA +1.71

Brock Purdy pass complete to Charlie Kolar for 15 yds to the Bayl 2 for a 1ST down

1st & 2Rushing Touchdown+2 ydsPPA +1.21

Breece Hall run for 2 yds for a TD, (Andrew Mevis KICK)

1st & 10Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.33

Gerry Bohanon pass complete to Tyquan Thornton for 6 yds to the Bayl 31

2nd & 4Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.36

Trestan Ebner run for 3 yds to the Bayl 34

3rd & 1Rush+4 ydsPPA +1.15

Gerry Bohanon run for 4 yds to the Bayl 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.71

Gerry Bohanon pass complete to Trestan Ebner for 7 yds to the Bayl 45

2nd & 3Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.40

Gerry Bohanon pass complete to R.J. Sneed for 5 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+12 ydsPPA +0.75

Abram Smith run for 12 yds to the IowSt 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Fumble Recovery (Own)+30 ydsPPA +0.77

Gerry Bohanon pass complete to R.J. Sneed for 30 yds R.J. Sneed fumbled, forced by Anthony Johnson Jr., recovered by Bayl Tyquan Thornton for a 1ST down

1st & 8Rushing Touchdown+8 ydsPPA +2.32

Gerry Bohanon run for 8 yds for a TD, (Isaiah Hankins KICK)

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.30

Breece Hall run for 3 yds to the IowSt 28

2nd & 7Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.24

Breece Hall run for 3 yds to the IowSt 31

3rd & 4Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +1.47

Brock Purdy pass complete to Xavier Hutchinson for 5 yds to the IowSt 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Sack-2 ydsPPA -1.36

Brock Purdy sacked by Gabe Hall for a loss of 2 yards to the IowSt 34

2nd & 12Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.20

Breece Hall run for 6 yds to the IowSt 40

3rd & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.58

Brock Purdy pass incomplete to Xavier Hutchinson

4th & 6Blocked Punt+16 yds

Corey Dunn punt blocked by Al Walcott, punt out-of-bounds at the Bayl 44 blocked by Al Walcott

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.93

Abram Smith run for 1 yd to the Bayl 43

2nd & 11Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.80

Gerry Bohanon pass incomplete to Ben Sims

3rd & 11Pass Reception+20 ydsPPA +3.50

Gerry Bohanon pass complete to R.J. Sneed for 20 yds to the IowSt 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +0.33

Gerry Bohanon pass complete to Tyquan Thornton for 11 yds to the IowSt 26 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.08

Trestan Ebner run for 5 yds to the IowSt 21

2nd & 5Passing Touchdown+21 ydsPPA +2.64

Gerry Bohanon pass complete to Tyquan Thornton for 21 yds for a TD, (Isaiah Hankins KICK)

1st & 10Pass Reception+34 ydsPPA +2.84

Brock Purdy pass complete to Chase Allen for 19 yds to the Bayl 44 for a 1ST down BAYLOR Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (Jalen Pitre) to the Bayl 41 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.10

Breece Hall run for 4 yds to the Bayl 37

2nd & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.93

Brock Purdy pass incomplete to Breece Hall

3rd & 6Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.07

Jirehl Brock run for 5 yds to the Bayl 32

4th & 1Rush+5 ydsPPA +1.45

Breece Hall run for 5 yds to the Bayl 27 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.04

Breece Hall run for 4 yds to the Bayl 31

2nd & 14Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.47

Brock Purdy pass complete to Chase Allen for 8 yds to the Bayl 23

3rd & 6Rush0 ydsPPA -0.72

Brock Purdy run for no gain to the Bayl 23

4th & 6Field Goal Good+40 yds

Andrew Mevis 40 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Rush+11 ydsPPA +0.93

Trestan Ebner run for 11 yds to the Bayl 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.11

Trestan Ebner run for 5 yds to the Bayl 41

2nd & 5Pass Reception+1 ydsPPA -0.89

Gerry Bohanon pass complete to Abram Smith for 1 yd to the Bayl 42

3rd & 4Rush+14 ydsPPA +2.52

Abram Smith run for 14 yds to the IowSt 44 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.75

Abram Smith run for 1 yd to the IowSt 45

2nd & 11Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.16

Gerry Bohanon run for 4 yds to the IowSt 41

3rd & 7Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.30

Gerry Bohanon pass complete to Drew Estrada for 6 yds to the IowSt 35

4th & 1Rush+2 ydsPPA +1.56

Gerry Bohanon run for 2 yds to the IowSt 33 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Passing Touchdown+33 ydsPPA +2.90

Gerry Bohanon pass complete to Ben Sims for 33 yds for a TD, (Isaiah Hankins KICK)

1st & 10Rush+14 ydsPPA +1.22

Breece Hall run for 14 yds to the IowSt 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.17

Breece Hall run for 4 yds to the IowSt 43

2nd & 6Penalty+15 yds

BAYLOR Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (Matt Jones) to the Bayl 42 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.49

Breece Hall run for 2 yds to the Bayl 44

2nd & 12Penalty+15 yds

Purdy,Brock pass incomplete to Hutchinson,Xavier QB hurried by Franklin,TJ PENALTY BAY Roughing The Passer (Franklin,TJ) 15 yards from BAY44 to BAY29, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.41

Brock Purdy run for 1 yd to the Bayl 28

2nd & 9Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.21

Brock Purdy run for 3 yds to the Bayl 25

3rd & 6Penalty-5 yds

PENALTY ISU False Start (Simmons,Darrell) 5 yards from BAY25 to BAY30. NO PLAY.

3rd & 11Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.00

Brock Purdy pass incomplete to Charlie Kolar

4th & 11Field Goal Missed+47 yds

Andrew Mevis 47 yd FG MISSED

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.86

Gerry Bohanon pass incomplete to Trestan Ebner

2nd & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.39

Trestan Ebner run for 1 yd to the Bayl 31

3rd & 9Penalty-10 yds

Bohanon,Gerry rush for 16 yards gain to the BAY47, out of bounds PENALTY BAY Holding (Byers,Gavin) 10 yards from BAY31 to BAY21. NO PLAY.

3rd & 19Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.02

Gerry Bohanon pass complete to Trestan Ebner for 6 yds to the Bayl 27

4th & 13Punt0 yds

Issac Power punt for 58 yds

1st & 10Pass Reception+21 ydsPPA +1.42

Brock Purdy pass complete to Breece Hall for 21 yds to the IowSt 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.01

Brock Purdy pass incomplete to Xavier Hutchinson

2nd & 10Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.70

Brock Purdy pass complete to Xavier Hutchinson for 8 yds to the IowSt 43

3rd & 2Pass Reception+17 ydsPPA +2.37

Brock Purdy pass complete to Xavier Hutchinson for 17 yds to the Bayl 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Fumble Recovery (Own)+4 ydsPPA -0.09

Brock Purdy pass complete to for 4 yds Charlie Kolar fumbled, forced by Will Williams, recovered by IowSt for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.39

Brock Purdy pass incomplete to Tarique Milton

2nd & 10Field Goal Good+38 yds

Andrew Mevis 38 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.80

run for a loss of 1 yard to the Bayl 24

0th & 10End of Half0 yds

End of 2nd Quarter

1st & 10Kickoff Return (Offense)+23 yds

Andrew Mevis kickoff for 65 yds , Trestan Ebner return for 23 yds to the Bayl 23

1st & 10Penalty-5 yds

PENALTY BAY False Start (Gall,Jacob) 5 yards from BAY23 to BAY18. NO PLAY.

1st & 15Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +0.77

Gerry Bohanon pass complete to Ben Sims for 10 yds to the Bayl 28

2nd & 5Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.29

Abram Smith run for 3 yds to the Bayl 31

3rd & 2Rush+27 ydsPPA +3.11

Gerry Bohanon run for 27 yds to the IowSt 42 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.91

Gerry Bohanon pass incomplete to Josh Fleeks

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.05

Gerry Bohanon pass incomplete to Tyquan Thornton

3rd & 10Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.74

Gerry Bohanon pass complete to R.J. Sneed for 8 yds to the IowSt 34

4th & 2Rush+8 ydsPPA +1.79

Gerry Bohanon run for 8 yds to the IowSt 26 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.15

Trestan Ebner run for 3 yds to the IowSt 23

2nd & 7Fumble Recovery (Opponent)0 ydsPPA -4.13

Gerry Bohanon run for no gain to the IowSt 23 Gerry Bohanon fumbled, forced by Isheem Young, recovered by IowSt Kym-Mani King

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.54

Breece Hall run for 1 yd to the IowSt 22

2nd & 11Pass Reception+1 ydsPPA -0.22

Brock Purdy pass complete to Chase Allen for 1 yd to the IowSt 21

3rd & 12Pass Reception+20 ydsPPA +2.58

Brock Purdy pass complete to Charlie Kolar for 20 yds to the IowSt 41 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+13 ydsPPA +1.12

Breece Hall run for 13 yds to the Bayl 46 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+20 ydsPPA +0.82

Brock Purdy pass complete to Chase Allen for 20 yds to the Bayl 26 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty+5 yds

Hall,Breece rush for 5 yards gain to the BAY21 (McVea,Jairon) PENALTY BAY Offside (Ika,Siaki) 5 yards from BAY26 to BAY21. NO PLAY.

1st & 5Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.48

Jirehl Brock run for 1 yd to the Bayl 22

2nd & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.50

Brock Purdy pass incomplete to Charlie Kolar

3rd & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.69

Brock Purdy pass incomplete to Xavier Hutchinson

4th & 6Field Goal Good+39 yds

Andrew Mevis 39 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Kickoff Return Touchdown+98 yds

Trestan Ebner 98 Yd Kickoff Return (Isaiah Hankins Kick)

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.70

Brock Purdy pass incomplete to Charlie Kolar

2nd & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.17

Breece Hall run for 6 yds to the IowSt 31

3rd & 4Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.29

Brock Purdy run for 2 yds to the IowSt 33

4th & 2Punt+6 yds

Corey Dunn punt for 49 yds , Trestan Ebner returns for 6 yds to the Bayl 24

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.59

Craig Williams run for 7 yds to the Bayl 31

2nd & 3Rush+4 ydsPPA +0.31

Abram Smith run for 4 yds to the Bayl 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.40

Abram Smith run for 6 yds to the Bayl 41

2nd & 4Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.16

Gerry Bohanon pass incomplete to R.J. Sneed

3rd & 4Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.60

Trestan Ebner run for 1 yd to the Bayl 40

4th & 5Punt+3 yds

Issac Power punt for 48 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the IowSt 15 , Jaylin Noel returns for 3 yds to the IowSt 15

1st & 10Rush+27 ydsPPA +2.06

Breece Hall run for 42 yds to the BAYLOR 43 for a 1ST down IOWA ST Penalty, Personal Foul (Corey Dunn) to the IowSt 42 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+24 ydsPPA +1.62

Brock Purdy pass complete to Chase Allen for 24 yds to the Bayl 34 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.35

Jirehl Brock run for 2 yds to the Bayl 32

2nd & 8Pass Reception+30 ydsPPA +2.08

Brock Purdy pass complete to Charlie Kolar for 30 yds to the Bayl 2 for a 1ST down

1st & 2Rushing Touchdown+2 ydsPPA +1.21

B. Hall run for 2 yds for a TD, (C. Assalley KICK)

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.11

Trestan Ebner run for 4 yds to the Bayl 29

2nd & 6Sack-5 ydsPPA -0.98

Gerry Bohanon sacked by Eyioma Uwazurike for a loss of 5 yards to the Bayl 24

3rd & 11Fumble Recovery (Own)-10 ydsPPA -0.22

Gerry Bohanon sacked by Will McDonald IV for a loss of 10 yards to the Bayl 14 Gerry Bohanon fumbled, recovered by Bayl Grant Miller , return for 0 yards

4th & 21Punt+5 yds

Issac Power punt for 56 yds , Jaylin Noel returns for 5 yds to the IowSt 35

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.11

Breece Hall run for 5 yds to the IowSt 40

2nd & 5Rush+34 ydsPPA +2.41

Breece Hall run for 34 yds to the Bayl 26 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.04

Jirehl Brock run for 4 yds to the Bayl 22

2nd & 6Interception0 ydsPPA -4.24

Brock Purdy pass intercepted

1st & 10Rush+13 ydsPPA +0.96

Abram Smith run for 13 yds to the Bayl 33 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.15

Abram Smith run for 4 yds to the Bayl 29

2nd & 14Rush0 ydsPPA -0.30

Craig Williams run for no gain to the Bayl 29

3rd & 14Pass Reception0 ydsPPA -0.14

Gerry Bohanon pass complete to Gerry Bohanon for no gain to the Bayl 29

4th & 14Punt0 yds

Issac Power punt for 56 yds, fair catch by Jaylin Noel at the IowSt 15

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.44

Brock Purdy pass incomplete to Joe Scates

2nd & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.03

Breece Hall run for 4 yds to the IowSt 19

3rd & 6Sack-3 ydsPPA -0.24

Brock Purdy sacked for a loss of 3 yards to the IowSt 16

4th & 9Punt+41 yds

Corey Dunn punt for 41 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the IowSt 16 , Trestan Ebner returns for 41 yds to the IowSt 16

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.26

Abram Smith run for 1 yd to the IowSt 15

2nd & 9Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.19

Gerry Bohanon run for 2 yds to the IowSt 17

3rd & 11Rush0 ydsPPA -0.67

Craig Williams run for no gain to the IowSt 17

4th & 11Field Goal Good+34 yds

Isaiah Hankins 34 Yd Field Goal

1st & 10Pass Reception+21 ydsPPA +1.89

Brock Purdy pass complete to Chase Allen for 21 yds to the IowSt 46 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.11

Breece Hall run for 5 yds to the Bayl 49

2nd & 5Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.16

Breece Hall run for 4 yds to the Bayl 45

3rd & 1Pass Reception+2 ydsPPA +0.88

Brock Purdy pass complete to Charlie Kolar for 2 yds to the Bayl 43 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.51

Jirehl Brock run for 2 yds to the Bayl 41

2nd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.04

Brock Purdy pass incomplete to Charlie Kolar

3rd & 8Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.53

Brock Purdy pass complete to Breece Hall for 7 yds to the Bayl 34

4th & 1Rush+2 ydsPPA +1.50

Breece Hall run for 2 yds to the Bayl 32 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+10 ydsPPA +0.22

Brock Purdy run for 10 yds to the Bayl 22 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.13

Jirehl Brock run for 3 yds to the Bayl 19

2nd & 7Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.33

Breece Hall run for 1 yd to the Bayl 18

3rd & 6Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.58

Brock Purdy pass complete to Breece Hall for 7 yds to the Bayl 11 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty-5 yds

Purdy,Brock pass complete to Kolar,Charlie for 11 yards to the BAY00 TOUCHDOWN nullified by penalty, clock 00:31 PENALTY ISU Ineligible Downfield on Pass (Schweiger,Derek) 5 yards from BAY11 to BAY16. NO PLAY.

1st & 15Passing Touchdown+16 ydsPPA +2.85

B. Purdy pass,to B. Hall for 16 yds for a TD, (Two-point Conversion failed )

1st & 10Penalty0 yds

PENALTY BAY UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Pitre,Jalen) BAY UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct declined 15 yards from ISU35 to ISU50. NO PLAY.

1st & 10Penalty+5 yds

Mevis,Andrew onside kickoff 13 yards to the BAY37, End Of Play PENALTY BAY Offside (Sims,Ben) 5 yards from ISU50 to BAY45. NO PLAY.

1st & 5Kickoff Return (Offense)0 yds

kickoff for 11 yds , Trestan Ebner return for no gain to the Bayl 34

1st & 10Rush-2 ydsPPA -1.28

run for a loss of 2 yards to the Bayl 32

Situational Analysis

Iowa State

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
100%
2 plays
0%
1 play
38%
32 plays
100%
1 play
2nd
20%
5 plays
40%
10 plays
75%
4 plays
3rd
100%
2 plays
38%
8 plays
100%
2 plays
50%
2 plays
4th
100%
3 plays

Baylor

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
57%
23 plays
100%
1 play
2nd
100%
2 plays
17%
6 plays
0%
4 plays
0%
3 plays
3rd
100%
2 plays
50%
2 plays
100%
2 plays
40%
5 plays
4th
100%
2 plays