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← Back to GamesSep 18, 2021Week 3

House Prediction

Model Margin

Kansas State by 0.2

Home Win Probability

Kansas State 46%

Market (consensus)

Kansas State +1.5

Edge: Kansas State +1.5 (1.7 pts)

fitted_v1 · Sep 18, 2021

Line Movement

No line movement to chart

Sportsbook snapshots publish once a line is posted for this game.

Team1Q2Q3Q4QFinal
NevadaNevada
7010017
Kansas StateKansas State
71002138

Scoring Timeline

Q1Q2Q3Q401428427-014-717-717-1017-1724-1731-1738-17
Kansas StateNevada

Drive Chart

Own 20Own 4050Opp 40Opp 20KSNEVKSNEVKSNEVKSNEVKSNEVKSNEVKSNEVKSNEVKSNEVKSNEVTD275ydPUNT31ydPUNT826ydPUNT618ydPUNT34ydTD874ydTD875ydTO923ydFG1038ydPUNT521ydEND1-2ydFG847ydPUNT31ydTD942ydTD875ydDOWNS737ydTD1162ydDOWNS46ydTD831ydEND632yd

Box Score

Team statistics comparing Nevada and Kansas State
StatisticNevadaKansas State
Passing28-419-13
Pass Yards306129
Rush Yards25269
Total Yards331398
Turnovers10
3rd Down8-175-9
Penalties8-626-45
Possession29:0031:00

Player Leaders

Player Leaders

Nevada
passing
Carson Strong
27/40, 262 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
rushing
Devonte Lee
10 CAR, 24 YDS, 1 TD
receiving
Romeo Doubs
7 REC, 121 YDS
defense
Kansas State
passing
Will Howard
7/10, 123 YDS, 1 TD
rushing
Deuce Vaughn
23 CAR, 127 YDS, 1 TD
receiving
Daniel Imatorbhebhe
1 REC, 68 YDS, 1 TD
defense

Play-by-Play

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.60

Will Howard run for 7 yds to the KanSt 32

2nd & 3Passing Touchdown+68 ydsPPA +5.47

Will Howard pass complete to Daniel Imatorbhebhe for 68 yds for a TD (Taiten Winkel KICK)

1st & 10Penalty-5 yds

PENALTY NEV Delay Of Game 5 yards from NEV12 to NEV07. NO PLAY.

1st & 15Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.10

Devonte Lee run for 2 yds to the Nevad 9

2nd & 13Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.06

run for 2 yds to the Nevad 7

3rd & 15Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.02

Devonte Lee run for 6 yds to the Nevad 13

4th & 9Punt0 yds

Julian Diaz punt for 56 yds

1st & 10Penalty-5 yds

PENALTY KSU False Start (Knowles,Malik) 5 yards from KSU31 to KSU26. NO PLAY.

1st & 15Rush+9 ydsPPA +0.80

Will Howard run for 9 yds to the KanSt 35

2nd & 6Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +1.09

Will Howard pass complete to Sammy Wheeler for 6 yds to the KanSt 41 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.40

Deuce Vaughn run for 6 yds to the KanSt 47

2nd & 4Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.73

Will Howard run for 2 yds to the KanSt 49

3rd & 2Rush+4 ydsPPA +1.38

Deuce Vaughn run for 4 yds to the Nevad 47 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.13

Joe Ervin run for 4 yds to the Nevad 43

2nd & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.09

Will Howard pass incomplete to Kade Warner

3rd & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.04

Will Howard pass incomplete to Deuce Vaughn

4th & 6Punt0 yds

Ty Zentner punt for 43 yds for a touchback

1st & 10Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.09

Carson Strong pass complete to Cole Turner for 4 yds to the Nevad 24

2nd & 6Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.08

Carson Strong pass complete to Melquan Stovall for 5 yds to the Nevad 29

3rd & 1Rush+2 ydsPPA +0.78

Devonte Lee run for 2 yds to the Nevad 31 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.74

Toa Taua run for 1 yd to the Nevad 32

2nd & 9Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.70

Carson Strong pass complete to Cole Turner for 8 yds to the Nevad 40

3rd & 1Rush+2 ydsPPA +1.09

Devonte Lee run for 2 yds to the Nevad 38

4th & 3Punt0 yds

Julian Diaz punt for 26 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the KanSt 36

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.85

Deuce Vaughn run for 1 yd to the KanSt 37

2nd & 9Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.60

Deuce Vaughn run for 1 yd to the KanSt 38

3rd & 8Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.29

Deuce Vaughn run for 2 yds to the KanSt 40

4th & 6Punt+13 yds

Ty Zentner punt for 47 yds , Romeo Doubs returns for 13 yds to the Nevad 26

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.73

Carson Strong pass incomplete to Justin Lockhart

2nd & 10Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.05

Carson Strong pass complete to Romeo Doubs for 5 yds to the Nevad 31

3rd & 5Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +2.23

Carson Strong pass complete to Tory Horton for 12 yds to the Nevad 43 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+55 ydsPPA +3.25

Carson Strong pass complete to Romeo Doubs for 55 yds to the KANSASST 2 for a 1ST down KANSAS ST Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference ( Yards) declined for a 1ST down

1st & 2Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.85

Carson Strong pass incomplete to Cole Turner

2nd & 2Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.48

Carson Strong pass incomplete to Elijah Cooks

3rd & 2Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.24

Toa Taua run for 1 yd to the KanSt 1

4th & 1Rushing Touchdown+1 ydsPPA +2.79

Devonte Lee run for 1 yd for a TD (Brandon Talton KICK)

1st & 10Penalty-5 yds

PENALTY KSU False Start (Rivas,Josh) 5 yards from KSU25 to KSU20. NO PLAY.

1st & 15Rush+12 ydsPPA +1.35

Joe Ervin run for 12 yds to the KanSt 32

2nd & 3Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA +0.33

Jaren Lewis pass complete to Phillip Brooks for 4 yds to the KanSt 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty+12 yds

Lewis,Jaren pass incomplete to Knowles,Malik PENALTY NEV Pass Interference (Robins,Berdale) 12 yards from KSU36 to KSU48, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.

1st & 10Rush+13 ydsPPA +0.87

Deuce Vaughn run for 13 yds to the Nevad 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.09

Deuce Vaughn run for 5 yds to the Nevad 34

2nd & 5Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.29

Malik Knowles run for 6 yds to the Nevad 28 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.20

Deuce Vaughn run for 6 yds to the Nevad 22

2nd & 4Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.54

Jaren Lewis pass incomplete to Phillip Brooks

3rd & 4Rushing Touchdown+22 ydsPPA +3.10

Joe Ervin run for 22 yds for a TD (Taiten Winkel KICK)

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.24

Devonte Lee run for 6 yds to the Nevad 20

2nd & 4Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.23

Carson Strong pass complete to Melquan Stovall for 3 yds to the Nevad 23

3rd & 1Rush+8 ydsPPA +1.04

Toa Taua run for 8 yds to the Nevad 31 for a 1ST down

3rd & 3Rush+3 ydsPPA +1.44

Devonte Lee run for 3 yds to the Nevad 41 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.57

Avery Morrow run for 2 yds to the Nevad 33

2nd & 8Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.07

Devonte Lee run for 5 yds to the Nevad 38

1st & 10Sack-9 ydsPPA -2.33

Carson Strong sacked by Reggie Stubblefield for a loss of 9 yards to the Nevad 32

2nd & 19Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.02

Carson Strong pass complete to Harry Ballard III for 5 yds to the Nevad 37

3rd & 14Interception+15 ydsPPA -0.02

Carson Strong pass intercepted KANSAS ST Penalty, UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct (15 Yards) to the KanSt 43

3rd & 14Interception+15 ydsPPA -0.02

Carson Strong pass intercepted KANSAS ST Penalty, UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct (15 Yards) to the KanSt 43

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -1.16

Deuce Vaughn run for no gain to the KanSt 43

2nd & 10Rush+13 ydsPPA +2.21

Deuce Vaughn run for 13 yds to the Nevad 44 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.11

Deuce Vaughn run for 4 yds to the Nevad 40

2nd & 6Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.65

Joe Ervin run for 8 yds to the Nevad 32 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.22

Joe Ervin run for 6 yds to the Nevad 26

2nd & 4Rush+11 ydsPPA +0.09

Deuce Vaughn run for 11 yds to the Nevad 15 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty-5 yds

PENALTY KSU False Start (Panzer,Hadley) 5 yards from NEV15 to NEV20. NO PLAY.

1st & 15Pass Reception+2 ydsPPA -0.18

Jaren Lewis pass complete to Phillip Brooks for 2 yds to the Nevad 18

2nd & 13Rush0 ydsPPA -0.47

Deuce Vaughn run for no gain to the Nevad 18

3rd & 13Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.58

Deuce Vaughn run for 1 yd to the Nevad 19

4th & 14Field Goal Good+37 yds

Taiten Winkel 37 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.11

Carson Strong pass complete to Avery Morrow for 4 yds to the Nevad 29

2nd & 6Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +1.24

Carson Strong pass complete to Romeo Doubs for 9 yds to the Nevad 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +1.37

Carson Strong pass complete to Melquan Stovall for 9 yds to the Nevad 47

2nd & 1Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.42

Carson Strong pass incomplete to Elijah Cooks

3rd & 1Rush+1 ydsPPA +1.00

Toa Taua run for 1 yd to the Nevad 46

4th & 2Punt0 yds

Julian Diaz punt for 31 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the KanSt 23

1st & 10Rush-2 ydsPPA -0.81

run for a loss of 2 yards to the KanSt 21

0th & 10End of Half0 yds

End of 2nd Quarter

1st & 10Penalty-5 yds

Zentner,Ty kickoff 65 yards to the NEV00 Bell,Jamaal return 17 yards to the NEV17 (Allen,Nick) PENALTY KSU Offside (Allen,Nick) 5 yards from KSU35 to KSU30. NO PLAY.

1st & 15Pass Reception0 ydsPPA -0.31

Carson Strong pass complete to Elijah Cooks for no gain to the Nevad 19

2nd & 15Sack-5 ydsPPA -0.20

Carson Strong sacked by Daniel Green for a loss of 5 yards to the Nevad 14

3rd & 20Pass Reception+23 ydsPPA +2.32

Carson Strong pass complete to Romeo Doubs for 23 yds to the Nevad 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+44 ydsPPA +2.45

Tory Horton pass complete to Melquan Stovall for 44 yds to the KanSt 19 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.28

Devonte Lee run for 1 yd to the KanSt 20

2nd & 11Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.49

Carson Strong pass incomplete to Melquan Stovall

3rd & 11Penalty-15 yds

PENALTY NEV UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct 15 yards from KSU20 to KSU35. NO PLAY.

3rd & 26Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.20

Carson Strong pass complete to Melquan Stovall for 6 yds to the KanSt 29

1st & 10Penalty-5 yds

Strong,Carson pass incomplete to Turner,Cole broken up by Stubblefield,Reggie PENALTY NEV Illegal Formation 5 yards from NEV24 to NEV19. NO PLAY.

4th & 20Field Goal Good+46 yds

Brandon Talton 46 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.59

Will Howard run for 1 yd to the KanSt 24

2nd & 11Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.29

Will Howard pass incomplete to Nick Lenners

3rd & 11Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.09

Will Howard run for 2 yds to the KanSt 26

4th & 9Punt0 yds

Ty Zentner punt for 16 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the KanSt 42

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.09

Carson Strong run for 5 yds to the KanSt 37

2nd & 5Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.71

Toa Taua run for 1 yd to the KanSt 36

3rd & 4Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.36

Carson Strong pass complete to Melquan Stovall for 3 yds to the KanSt 33

4th & 1Rush+2 ydsPPA +1.44

Devonte Lee run for 2 yds to the KanSt 31 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.36

Carson Strong pass complete to Elijah Cooks for 7 yds to the KanSt 24

2nd & 3Rush+5 ydsPPA -0.12

Toa Taua run for 5 yds to the KanSt 19 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception0 ydsPPA -0.36

Carson Strong pass complete to Toa Taua for no gain to the KanSt 19

2nd & 10Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.04

Carson Strong pass complete to Reagan Roberson for 5 yds to the KanSt 14

3rd & 5Passing Touchdown+14 ydsPPA +2.93

Carson Strong pass complete to Elijah Cooks for 14 yds for a TD (Brandon Talton KICK)

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.70

Deuce Vaughn run for no gain to the KanSt 25

2nd & 10Pass Reception+16 ydsPPA +2.12

Will Howard pass complete to Deuce Vaughn for 16 yds to the KanSt 41 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.70

Will Howard pass complete to Phillip Brooks for 7 yds to the KanSt 48

2nd & 3Rush+19 ydsPPA +1.06

Will Howard run for 19 yds to the Nevad 33 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+14 ydsPPA +0.30

Deuce Vaughn run for 14 yds to the Nevad 19 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.20

Will Howard run for 12 yds to the Nevad 7 for a 1ST down KANSAS ST Penalty, Offensive Holding (Ben Sinnott) to the Nevad 17 for a 1ST down

1st & 8Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.25

Will Howard run for 6 yds to the Nevad 11

2nd & 2Rushing Touchdown+11 ydsPPA +2.15

Deuce Vaughn run for 11 yds for a TD (Taiten Winkel KICK)

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.70

Carson Strong pass incomplete to Melquan Stovall

2nd & 10Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +0.68

Carson Strong pass complete to Romeo Doubs for 9 yds to the Nevad 34

3rd & 1Penalty-5 yds

PENALTY NEV False Start (Nunez,Jacob) 5 yards from NEV34 to NEV29. NO PLAY.

3rd & 6Pass Reception+24 ydsPPA +3.23

Carson Strong pass complete to Elijah Cooks for 24 yds to the KanSt 47 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.32

Carson Strong pass complete to Tory Horton for 6 yds to the KanSt 41

2nd & 4Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.06

Carson Strong pass incomplete to Tory Horton

3rd & 4Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.10

Carson Strong pass incomplete to Toa Taua

4th & 4Rush+3 ydsPPA -1.54

Carson Strong run for 3 yds to the KanSt 38

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.40

Deuce Vaughn run for 6 yds to the KanSt 44

2nd & 4Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +1.14

Will Howard pass complete to Phillip Brooks for 12 yds to the Nevad 44 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.50

Joe Ervin run for 7 yds to the Nevad 37

2nd & 3Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.02

Will Howard pass complete to Phillip Brooks for 3 yds to the Nevad 34 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.35

Will Howard run for 2 yds to the Nevad 36

2nd & 12Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +1.03

Will Howard pass complete to Ben Sinnott for 11 yds to the Nevad 25

3rd & 1Rush+3 ydsPPA +0.27

Deuce Vaughn run for 3 yds to the Nevad 22 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +0.63

Deuce Vaughn run for 9 yds to the Nevad 13

2nd & 1Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.13

Deuce Vaughn run for 8 yds to the Nevad 5 for a 1ST down

1st & 5Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.18

Joe Ervin run for 3 yds to the Nevad 2

2nd & 2Rushing Touchdown+2 ydsPPA +2.07

Will Howard run for 2 yds for a TD (Taiten Winkel KICK)

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.70

Carson Strong pass incomplete to Melquan Stovall

2nd & 10Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.17

Carson Strong pass complete to Melquan Stovall for 6 yds to the Nevad 31

3rd & 4Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.44

Carson Strong pass incomplete to Cole Turner

4th & 4Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA +0.05

Carson Strong pass incomplete to Melquan Stovall

4th & 4Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA +0.05

Carson Strong pass incomplete to Melquan Stovall

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.31

Joe Ervin run for 2 yds to the Nevad 29

2nd & 8Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.06

Deuce Vaughn run for 5 yds to the Nevad 24

3rd & 3Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.50

Deuce Vaughn run for 6 yds to the Nevad 18 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.18

Joe Ervin run for 6 yds to the Nevad 12

2nd & 4Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.36

Joe Ervin run for 6 yds to the Nevad 6 for a 1ST down

1st & 6Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.39

Will Howard run for 1 yd to the Nevad 7

2nd & 7Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.15

Joe Ervin run for 6 yds to the Nevad 1

3rd & 1Penalty0 yds

Ervin,Joe rush for 1 yard loss to the NEV02 (Touray,Lamin) PENALTY NEV Illegal Substitution. NO PLAY.

3rd & 1Rushing Touchdown+1 ydsPPA +2.45

Will Howard run for 1 yd for a TD (Taiten Winkel KICK)

1st & 10Pass Reception+15 ydsPPA +1.32

Carson Strong pass complete to Devonte Lee for 15 yds to the Nevad 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.12

Carson Strong pass incomplete to Justin Lockhart

2nd & 10Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.07

Carson Strong pass complete to Tory Horton for 5 yds to the Nevad 45

3rd & 5Pass Reception+13 ydsPPA +2.52

Carson Strong pass complete to Romeo Doubs for 13 yds to the KanSt 42 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.47

Carson Strong pass complete to Romeo Doubs for 7 yds to the KanSt 35

2nd & 3Sack-8 ydsPPA -2.65

Carson Strong sacked by Nate Matlack for a loss of 8 yards to the KanSt 43

Situational Analysis

Nevada

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
0%
1 play
45%
20 plays
0%
2 plays
2nd
0%
4 plays
40%
5 plays
100%
7 plays
25%
4 plays
3rd
83%
6 plays
57%
7 plays
60%
5 plays
4th
100%
2 plays
67%
3 plays

Kansas State

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
0%
2 plays
57%
23 plays
67%
3 plays
2nd
86%
7 plays
67%
9 plays
80%
5 plays
33%
3 plays
3rd
100%
4 plays
50%
2 plays
0%
1 play
0%
2 plays
4th