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← Back to GamesSep 4, 2021Week 1

House Prediction

Model Margin

Baylor by 0.6

Home Win Probability

Texas State 48%

Market (consensus)

Texas State +13.5

Edge: Texas State +13.5 (12.9 pts)

fitted_v1 · Sep 4, 2021

Line Movement

No line movement to chart

Sportsbook snapshots publish once a line is posted for this game.

Team1Q2Q3Q4QFinal
BaylorBaylor
7710529
Texas StateTexas State
373720

Scoring Timeline

Q1Q2Q3Q4014283-710-710-1410-1713-2413-2720-27
Texas StateBaylor

Drive Chart

Own 20Own 4050Opp 40Opp 20TSBAYTSTSBAYTSBAYTSBAYBAYTSBAYTSBAYTSBAYTSBAYTSBAYTSBAYTSPUNT33ydTO546ydTD10ydFG1472ydFG1746ydTD1177ydTD1375ydPUNT3-5ydEND1-3ydPUNT34ydPUNT4-3ydFG733ydPUNT316ydTD570ydFG1054ydPUNT523ydTO2-1ydFG518ydTO62ydDOWNS846ydTD1065ydPUNT3-1ydSAF2-10yd

Box Score

Team statistics comparing Baylor and Texas State
StatisticBaylorTexas State
Passing15-2420-40
Pass Yards148156
Rush Yards23879
Total Yards386235
Turnovers13
3rd Down5-134-14
Penalties11-993-25
Possession34:4825:12

Player Leaders

Player Leaders

Baylor
passing
Gerry Bohannon
15/24, 148 YDS
rushing
Trestan Ebner
20 CAR, 120 YDS
receiving
R.J. Sneed
6 REC, 92 YDS
defense
Terrel Bernard
1.5 TFL, 1 PD
Texas State
passing
Brady McBride
20/40, 156 YDS, 1 TD, 3 INT
rushing
Jahmyl Jeter
8 CAR, 45 YDS, 1 TD
receiving
Marcell Barbee
4 REC, 56 YDS, 1 TD
defense

Play-by-Play

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.30

Calvin Hill run for 3 yds to the TexSt 28

2nd & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.56

Brady McBride pass incomplete to Calvin Hill

3rd & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.27

Brady McBride pass incomplete to Chandler Speights

4th & 7Punt0 yds

Seamus O'Kelly punt for 37 yds

1st & 10Pass Reception+18 ydsPPA +1.65

Gerry Bohanon pass complete to R.J. Sneed for 18 yds to the TexSt 48 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.10

Trestan Ebner run for 5 yds to the TexSt 43

2nd & 5Rush+9 ydsPPA +0.65

Trestan Ebner run for 9 yds to the TexSt 34 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.06

Trestan Ebner run for 4 yds to the TexSt 30

1st & 10Interception0 ydsPPA -0.61

Brady McBride pass intercepted for a TD, (Isaiah Hankins KICK)

1st & 10Interception0 ydsPPA -0.61

Brady McBride pass intercepted for a TD

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.70

Caleb Twyford run for no gain to the TexSt 25

2nd & 10Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.04

Brady McBride pass complete to Seth Caillouet for 5 yds to the TexSt 30

3rd & 5Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.06

Brady McBride pass complete to Javen Banks for 4 yds to the TexSt 34

4th & 1Rush+4 ydsPPA +1.85

Caleb Twyford run for 4 yds to the TexSt 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+20 ydsPPA +1.66

Brady McBride pass complete to Seth Caillouet for 20 yds to the Bayl 42 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.70

Brady McBride run for 1 yd to the Bayl 41

2nd & 9Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.81

Caleb Twyford run for 1 yd to the Bayl 42

3rd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.93

Brady McBride pass incomplete to Drue Jackson

4th & 10Penalty+15 yds

O'Kelly,Seamus punt 40 yards to the BAY02 PENALTY BAY Roughing The Kicker (Jones,Matt) 15 yards from BAY42 to BAY27, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.

1st & 10Penalty+10 yds

McBride,Brady pass incomplete to Ortega-Jones,Julian QB hurried by Hall,Gabe PENALTY BAY Holding (Texada,Raleigh) 10 yards from BAY27 to BAY17, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.31

Calvin Hill run for 7 yds to the Bayl 10

2nd & 3Rush+4 ydsPPA +0.22

Calvin Hill run for 4 yds to the Bayl 6 for a 1ST down

1st & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.48

pass incomplete to Javen Banks

2nd & 6Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.10

Calvin Hill run for 3 yds to the Bayl 3

3rd & 3Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.29

Brady McBride pass incomplete to Marcell Barbee

4th & 3Field Goal Good+21 yds

Seth Keller 21 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.70

Monaray Baldwin run for no gain to the Bayl 25

2nd & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.15

Abram Smith run for 3 yds to the Bayl 28

3rd & 7Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.13

Gerry Bohanon pass complete to Tyquan Thornton for 6 yds to the Bayl 34

4th & 1Rush+3 ydsPPA +1.75

Abram Smith run for 3 yds to the Bayl 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.07

Gerry Bohanon pass incomplete to Tyquan Thornton

2nd & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +1.01

Trestan Ebner run for 9 yds to the Bayl 46

3rd & 1Rush+7 ydsPPA +1.49

Abram Smith run for 7 yds to the TexSt 47 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.10

Gerry Bohanon pass complete to R.J. Sneed for 5 yds to the TexSt 42

2nd & 5Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.84

Abram Smith run for 1 yd to the TexSt 41

3rd & 4Rush+6 ydsPPA +1.38

Abram Smith run for 6 yds to the TexSt 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.53

Abram Smith run for 1 yd to the TexSt 36

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.53

Abram Smith run for 1 yd to the TexSt 36

2nd & 11Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +0.88

Gerry Bohanon pass complete to Tyquan Thornton for 10 yds to the TexSt 26

3rd & 1Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.32

Trestan Ebner run for 5 yds to the TexSt 21 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.39

Gerry Bohanon pass incomplete to Josh Fleeks

2nd & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.05

Trestan Ebner run for 4 yds to the TexSt 17

4th & 12Field Goal Good+40 yds

Isaiah Hankins 40 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.27

Caleb Twyford run for 3 yds to the TexSt 26

2nd & 7Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +1.15

Brady McBride pass complete to Chandler Speights for 8 yds to the TexSt 34 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.16

Caleb Twyford run for 4 yds to the TexSt 38

2nd & 6Penalty-10 yds

Twyford,Caleb rush for 8 yards gain to the TXS46 (Doyle,Dillon) PENALTY TXS Holding (Cooper,Dalton) 10 yards from TXS38 to TXS28. NO PLAY.

2nd & 16Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +0.91

Brady McBride pass complete to Ashtyn Hawkins for 12 yds to the TexSt 40

3rd & 4Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +1.81

Brady McBride pass complete to Caleb Twyford for 5 yds to the TexSt 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.68

Jahmyl Jeter run for 2 yds to the TexSt 47

2nd & 8Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.64

Jahmyl Jeter run for 2 yds to the TexSt 49

3rd & 6Pass Reception+23 ydsPPA +2.83

Brady McBride pass complete to Donnovan Moorer for 23 yds to the Bayl 28 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +0.67

Brady McBride pass complete to Chandler Speights for 9 yds to the Bayl 19

2nd & 1Rush+7 ydsPPA -0.44

Jahmyl Jeter run for 7 yds to the Bayl 12 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Passing Touchdown+12 ydsPPA +2.53

Brady McBride pass complete to Marcell Barbee for 12 yds for a TD, (Seth Keller KICK)

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.59

Abram Smith run for 1 yd to the Bayl 26

2nd & 9Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +1.61

Gerry Bohanon pass complete to Tyquan Thornton for 11 yds to the Bayl 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+19 ydsPPA +1.64

Gerry Bohanon pass complete to R.J. Sneed for 19 yds to the TexSt 44 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.97

Gerry Bohanon pass incomplete to Tyquan Thornton

2nd & 10Rush+10 ydsPPA +1.45

Abram Smith run for 10 yds to the TexSt 34 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +0.74

Gerry Bohanon pass complete to R.J. Sneed for 9 yds to the TexSt 25

2nd & 1Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA -0.40

Gerry Bohanon pass complete to Tyquan Thornton for 6 yds to the TexSt 19 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.02

Abram Smith run for 4 yds to the TexSt 15

2nd & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.38

Gerry Bohanon pass incomplete to Tyquan Thornton

3rd & 6Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.69

Trestan Ebner run for 7 yds to the TexSt 8 for a 1ST down

3rd & 6Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.69

Trestan Ebner run for 7 yds to the TexSt 8 for a 1ST down

1st & 8Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.29

Trestan Ebner run for 1 yd to the TexSt 7

2nd & 7Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.02

Gerry Bohanon run for 4 yds to the TexSt 3

3rd & 3Rushing Touchdown+3 ydsPPA +2.62

Abram Smith run for 3 yds for a TD, (Isaiah Hankins KICK)

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.01

Brady McBride pass incomplete to Marcell Barbee

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.60

Brady McBride pass incomplete to Marcell Barbee

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.60

Brady McBride pass incomplete to Marcell Barbee

3rd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.30

Brady McBride pass incomplete to Javen Banks

4th & 10Penalty-5 yds

PENALTY TXS False Start (Ortega-Jones,Julian) 5 yards from TXS35 to TXS30. NO PLAY.

4th & 15Punt0 yds

Seamus O'Kelly punt for 53 yds

1st & 10Rush-3 ydsPPA -0.65

run for a loss of 3 yards to the Bayl 14

0th & 10End of Half0 yds

End of 2nd Quarter

1st & 10Rush-3 ydsPPA -0.65

run for a loss of 3 yards to the Bayl 14

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.07

Trestan Ebner run for 4 yds to the Bayl 21

2nd & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.45

Gerry Bohanon pass incomplete to Tyquan Thornton

3rd & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.20

Gerry Bohanon pass incomplete to Ben Sims

4th & 6Punt0 yds

Issac Power punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Ashtyn Hawkins at the TexSt 36

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.64

Calvin Hill run for 2 yds to the TexSt 38

2nd & 8Penalty-10 yds

TEXAS STATE Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the TexSt 34

2nd & 12Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.20

Brady McBride pass complete to Calvin Hill for 6 yds to the TexSt 28

3rd & 18Penalty+5 yds

PENALTY BAY Offside (Pitre,Jalen) 5 yards from TXS28 to TXS33. NO PLAY.

3rd & 13Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.20

Brady McBride pass incomplete to Drue Jackson

4th & 13Punt0 yds

Seamus O'Kelly punt for 26 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Bayl 41

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.14

Gerry Bohanon pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+17 ydsPPA +2.50

Trestan Ebner run for 17 yds to the TexSt 42 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+15 ydsPPA +0.55

Gerry Bohanon pass complete to R.J. Sneed for 15 yds to the TexSt 27 for a 1ST down TEXAS STATE Penalty, Defensive Holding ( Yards) declined for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.37

Abram Smith run for 1 yd to the TexSt 28

2nd & 11Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.23

Gerry Bohanon pass complete to Abram Smith for 3 yds to the TexSt 25

3rd & 8Pass Reception+1 ydsPPA -0.63

Gerry Bohanon pass complete to Josh Fleeks for 1 yd to the TexSt 26

4th & 9Field Goal Good+43 yds

Isaiah Hankins 43 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.09

Calvin Hill run for 5 yds to the TexSt 30

2nd & 5Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.48

Calvin Hill run for 2 yds to the TexSt 32

3rd & 3Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.43

Calvin Hill run for 1 yd to the TexSt 31

4th & 4Punt0 yds

Seamus O'Kelly punt for 29 yds, fair catch by Trestan Ebner at the Bayl 30

1st & 10Pass Reception+13 ydsPPA +1.23

Gerry Bohanon pass complete to Tyquan Thornton for 13 yds to the Bayl 43 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+16 ydsPPA +1.22

Trestan Ebner run for 16 yds to the TexSt 41 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+14 ydsPPA +0.50

Trestan Ebner run for 14 yds to the TexSt 27 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+14 ydsPPA +0.20

Gerry Bohanon pass complete to Drake Dabney for 14 yds to the TexSt 13 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rushing Touchdown+13 ydsPPA +2.54

Abram Smith run for 13 yds for a TD, (Isaiah Hankins KICK)

1st & 10Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +1.03

Brady McBride pass complete to Marcell Barbee for 12 yds to the TexSt 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -1.07

Caleb Twyford run for no gain to the TexSt 37

2nd & 10Pass Reception+2 ydsPPA -0.43

Brady McBride pass complete to Julian Ortega-Jones for 2 yds to the TexSt 39

3rd & 8Pass Reception+21 ydsPPA +3.35

Brady McBride pass complete to Marcell Barbee for 21 yds to the TEXSTATE 40 for a 1ST down BAYLOR Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (R.J. Sneed) declined for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.65

Caleb Twyford run for 1 yd to the Bayl 39

2nd & 9Pass Reception+15 ydsPPA +1.15

Brady McBride pass complete to Julian Ortega-Jones for 15 yds to the Bayl 24 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.43

Brady McBride pass incomplete to Javen Banks

2nd & 10Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.06

Brady McBride pass complete to Ashtyn Hawkins for 4 yds to the Bayl 20

3rd & 6Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.47

Caleb Twyford run for 1 yd to the Bayl 21

4th & 7Field Goal Good+38 yds

Seth Keller 38 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.80

Abram Smith run for 8 yds to the Bayl 28

2nd & 2Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.44

Abram Smith run for 8 yds to the Bayl 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.11

Abram Smith run for 5 yds to the Bayl 41

2nd & 5Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.09

Gerry Bohanon pass incomplete to R.J. Sneed

3rd & 5Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.43

Trestan Ebner run for 2 yds to the Bayl 43

4th & 3Punt0 yds

Issac Power punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Ashtyn Hawkins at the TexSt 17

1st & 10Pass Reception+1 ydsPPA -0.41

Brady McBride pass complete to Caleb Twyford for 1 yd to the TexSt 16

2nd & 11Interception0 ydsPPA +0.08

Brady McBride pass intercepted

2nd & 11Interception0 ydsPPA +0.08

Brady McBride pass intercepted

1st & 10Rush+15 ydsPPA +0.21

Trestan Ebner run for 15 yds to the TexSt 12 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.02

Trestan Ebner run for 4 yds to the TexSt 8

2nd & 6Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.07

Gerry Bohanon run for 5 yds to the TexSt 3

3rd & 1Rush+6 yds

Trestan Ebner run for 6 yds to the TexSt 9

4th & 7Field Goal Good+26 yds

Isaiah Hankins 26 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.40

Calvin Hill run for 6 yds to the TexSt 41

2nd & 4Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.16

Brady McBride pass incomplete

3rd & 4Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA +1.73

Brady McBride pass complete to Calvin Hill for 4 yds to the TexSt 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Sack-8 ydsPPA -2.48

Brady McBride sacked by Terrel Bernard for a loss of 8 yards to the TexSt 37

2nd & 18Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.35

Brady McBride pass incomplete to Drue Jackson

3rd & 18Interception0 ydsPPA +0.11

Brady McBride pass intercepted

1st & 10Penalty-9 yds

PENALTY BAY UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct (McVea,Jairon) 9 yards from BAY19 to BAY10. NO PLAY.

1st & 19Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.08

Abram Smith run for 2 yds to the Bayl 12

2nd & 17Rush+34 ydsPPA +3.10

Abram Smith run for 34 yds to the Bayl 46 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+26 ydsPPA +1.42

Gerry Bohanon pass complete to R.J. Sneed for 26 yds to the TexSt 28 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.16

Trestan Ebner run for 3 yds to the TexSt 25

2nd & 7Rush0 ydsPPA -0.57

Trestan Ebner run for no gain to the TexSt 25

3rd & 7Penalty-10 yds

BAYLOR Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the TexSt 29

3rd & 11Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.23

Gerry Bohanon pass complete to Trestan Ebner for 6 yds to the TexSt 35

4th & 17Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.71

Gerry Bohanon pass incomplete to Tyquan Thornton

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.01

Brady McBride pass incomplete to Javen Banks

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.60

Brady McBride pass incomplete to Julian Ortega-Jones

3rd & 10Pass Incompletion+15 ydsPPA +3.02

Brady McBride pass incomplete to Chandler Speights for a 1ST down BAYLOR Penalty, Roughing The Passer (Terrel Bernard) to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+19 ydsPPA +1.00

Jahmyl Jeter run for 19 yds to the Bayl 31 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +0.22

Brady McBride pass complete to Chandler Speights for 11 yds to the Bayl 20 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +0.62

Jahmyl Jeter run for 9 yds to the Bayl 11

2nd & 1Rush+5 ydsPPA -0.06

Jahmyl Jeter run for 5 yds to the Bayl 6 for a 1ST down

1st & 6Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.39

Jahmyl Jeter run for 1 yd to the Bayl 7

2nd & 7Penalty+5 yds

BAYLOR Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Raleigh Texada) to the Bayl 2 for a 1ST down

1st & 2Rushing Touchdown+2 ydsPPA +1.21

Jahmyl Jeter run for 2 yds for a TD, (Seth Keller KICK)

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.57

Abram Smith run for 2 yds to the TexSt 44

2nd & 8Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.39

Trestan Ebner run for 3 yds to the TexSt 41

3rd & 5Penalty-5 yds

PENALTY BAY False Start (Shupp,Jackson) 5 yards from TXS41 to TXS46. NO PLAY.

3rd & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.15

Trestan Ebner run for 4 yds to the TexSt 42

4th & 6Penalty-5 yds

PENALTY BAY Delay Of Game 5 yards from TXS42 to TXS47. NO PLAY.

4th & 11Punt0 yds

Issac Power punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Ashtyn Hawkins at the TexSt 10

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.35

Brady McBride pass incomplete to Chandler Speights

2nd & 10Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +0.76

Brady McBride pass complete for a SAFETY to Chandler Speights for 10 yds for a SAFETY

Situational Analysis

Baylor

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
45%
33 plays
0%
1 play
2nd
50%
2 plays
33%
6 plays
44%
9 plays
67%
3 plays
3rd
100%
3 plays
60%
5 plays
33%
3 plays
100%
1 play
4th
100%
1 play
0%
1 play

Texas State

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
100%
1 play
0%
2 plays
37%
27 plays
2nd
33%
3 plays
0%
3 plays
33%
12 plays
80%
5 plays
3rd
0%
2 plays
60%
5 plays
40%
5 plays
50%
2 plays
4th
100%
1 play