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← Back to GamesOct 30, 2021Week 9

House Prediction

Model Margin

Liberty by 65.8

Home Win Probability

Liberty 100%

Market (consensus)

Liberty -35.5

Edge: Liberty -35.5 (30.3 pts)

fitted_v1 · Oct 30, 2021

Line Movement

No line movement to chart

Sportsbook snapshots publish once a line is posted for this game.

Team1Q2Q3Q4QFinal
MassachusettsMassachusetts
307717
LibertyLiberty
212071462

Scoring Timeline

Q1Q2Q3Q40142842567014-321-327-341-341-1048-1055-1062-17
LibertyMassachusetts

Drive Chart

Own 20Own 4050Opp 40Opp 20MASLIBMASLIBMASLIBMASLIBMASLIBMASLIBMASMASLIBMASLIBMASLIBMASLIBMASLIBMASLIBMASLIBMASLIBTO10ydTD126ydTO3-1ydTD16ydFG955ydPUNT32ydPUNT31ydTD576ydPUNT3-3ydPUNT518ydPUNT834ydTD799ydPUNT35ydDOWNS46ydTD272ydPUNT618ydTD972ydEND113ydPUNT3-8ydTD863ydTD875ydDOWNS620ydDOWNS727ydPUNT30ydTD586ydPUNT38ydTD592ydTD1375ydEND2-4yd

Box Score

Team statistics comparing Massachusetts and Liberty
StatisticMassachusettsLiberty
Passing9-2721-33
Pass Yards74409
Rush Yards210195
Total Yards284604
Turnovers21
3rd Down7-193-9
Penalties5-624-40
Possession36:3523:25

Player Leaders

Player Leaders

Massachusetts
passing
Brady Olson
9/25, 74 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
rushing
Ellis Merriweather
24 CAR, 149 YDS
receiving
Rico Arnold
1 REC, 30 YDS, 1 TD
defense
Liberty
passing
Malik Willis
19/27, 307 YDS, 4 TD
rushing
TJ Green
5 CAR, 60 YDS, 2 TD
receiving
DJ Stubbs
2 REC, 72 YDS, 1 TD
defense
Storey Jackson
1 TFL, 1 PD

Play-by-Play

1st & 10Interception0 ydsPPA -0.92

Brady Olson pass intercepted

1st & 10Rushing Touchdown+26 ydsPPA +2.72

T.J. Green run for 26 yds for a TD, (Brayden Beck KICK)

1st & 10Kickoff Return (Offense)+23 yds

Jason Stricker kickoff for 64 yds , Eric Collins return for 23 yds to the LIBERTY 42 MASSACHUSETTS Penalty, Offensive Holding (Melvin Hill) to the UMass 7

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.31

Brady Olson pass incomplete to Ellis Merriweather

2nd & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.02

Ellis Merriweather run for 4 yds to the UMass 11

3rd & 6Fumble Recovery (Own)-5 ydsPPA -0.18

Brady Olson sacked by Aakil Washington for a loss of 5 yards to the UMass 6 Brady Olson fumbled, recovered by Liber Stephen Sings V , return for 0 yards

1st & 6Passing Touchdown+6 ydsPPA +2.05

Malik Willis pass complete to Demario Douglas for 6 yds for a TD, (Brayden Beck KICK)

1st & 10Rush+39 ydsPPA +3.07

Ellis Merriweather run for 39 yds to the Liber 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.38

Ellis Merriweather run for 2 yds to the Liber 34

2nd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.85

Brady Olson pass incomplete to Jaret Pallotta

3rd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.03

Brady Olson pass incomplete to Tray Pettway

4th & 8Rush+16 ydsPPA +2.68

Brady Olson run for 16 yds to the Liber 18 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.19

Ellis Merriweather run for 2 yds to the Liber 20

2nd & 12Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.51

Brady Olson pass incomplete to Jermaine Johnson Jr.

3rd & 12Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.79

Brady Olson pass incomplete to Jaret Pallotta

4th & 12Field Goal Good+38 yds

Cameron Carson 38 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Kickoff Return (Offense)+9 yds

CJ Kolodziey kickoff for 45 yds , T.J. Green return for 9 yds to the Liber 29

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.83

Malik Willis pass incomplete to Noah Frith

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.44

Malik Willis pass incomplete to Noah Frith

3rd & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.14

Malik Willis run for 2 yds to the Liber 31

4th & 8Punt0 yds

Max Morgan punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Eric Collins at the UMass 28

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.10

Ellis Merriweather run for 5 yds to the UMass 33

2nd & 5Fumble Recovery (Own)+3 ydsPPA -0.35

Zamar Wise run for 3 yds to the UMass 30 Zamar Wise fumbled, forced by Robert Rahimi, recovered by UMass Zamar Wise

3rd & 8Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.23

Eric Collins run for 1 yd to the UMass 29

4th & 9Punt0 yds

George Georgopoulos punt for 47 yds

1st & 10Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.89

Malik Willis pass complete to Kevin Shaa for 8 yds to the Liber 32

2nd & 2Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.40

Malik Willis pass complete to Treon Sibley for 7 yds to the Liber 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception0 ydsPPA -1.11

Malik Willis pass complete to Treon Sibley for no gain to the Liber 39

2nd & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.60

T.J. Green run for 1 yd to the Liber 40

3rd & 9Passing Touchdown+60 ydsPPA +6.57

Malik Willis pass complete to DJ Stubbs for 60 yds for a TD, (Brayden Beck KICK)

1st & 10Rush+11 ydsPPA +0.93

Jermaine Johnson Jr. run for 11 yds to the UMass 14

2nd & 21Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.03

Zamar Wise run for 2 yds to the UMass 12

3rd & 23Rush+10 ydsPPA +0.04

Ellis Merriweather run for 10 yds to the UMass 22

4th & 13Punt0 yds

George Georgopoulos punt for 44 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Liber 18 , Demario Douglas returns for no gain to the Liber 22 LIBERTY Penalty, Illegal Block (Chance Smith) to the Liber 18

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.49

Malik Willis run for 7 yds to the Liber 25

2nd & 3Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +0.66

Malik Willis pass complete to Demario Douglas for 9 yds to the Liber 34 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.62

T.J. Green run for 2 yds to the Liber 36

2nd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.74

Malik Willis pass incomplete to Kevin Shaa

3rd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.39

Malik Willis pass incomplete to Johnny Huntley

4th & 8Punt0 yds

Aidan Alves punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Eric Collins at the UMass 16

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.07

Ellis Merriweather run for 4 yds to the UMass 20

2nd & 6Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.08

Ellis Merriweather run for 5 yds to the UMass 25

3rd & 1Rush+4 ydsPPA +0.80

Ellis Merriweather run for 4 yds to the UMass 29 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.53

Ellis Merriweather run for 2 yds to the UMass 31

2nd & 8Rush+23 ydsPPA +2.76

Ellis Merriweather run for 23 yds to the Liber 46 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.79

Brady Olson run for 1 yd to the Liber 45

2nd & 9Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.63

Eric Collins run for 2 yds to the Liber 47

3rd & 11Penalty-15 yds

Olson,Brady pass complete to Merriweather,Ellis for 47 yards to the LIB00 TOUCHDOWN nullified by penalty, clock 00:00 PENALTY MAS Pass Interference (Arnold,Rico) 15 yards from LIB47 to MAS38. NO PLAY.

3rd & 26Rush+12 ydsPPA +0.36

Ellis Merriweather run for 12 yds to the 50 yard line

4th & 14Punt0 yds

George Georgopoulos punt for 49 yds

1st & 10Pass Reception+43 ydsPPA +2.62

Malik Willis pass complete to Kevin Shaa for 43 yds to the Liber 44 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.93

Malik Willis run for 1 yd to the Liber 45

2nd & 9Pass Reception+17 ydsPPA +2.20

Malik Willis pass complete to Kevin Shaa for 17 yds to the UMass 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.78

Malik Willis pass incomplete to Kevin Shaa

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.99

Malik Willis pass incomplete to T.J. Green

3rd & 10Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +0.92

Malik Willis pass complete to Johnny Huntley for 9 yds to the UMass 29

4th & 1Rushing Touchdown+29 ydsPPA +3.94

T.J. Green run for 29 yds for a TD, (Brayden Beck PAT MISSED)

1st & 10Kickoff Return (Offense)+16 yds

Jason Stricker kickoff for 59 yds , Eric Collins return for 16 yds to the UMass 22

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.26

Ellis Merriweather run for 3 yds to the UMass 25

2nd & 7Pass Reception+2 ydsPPA -0.31

Brady Olson pass complete to Ellis Merriweather for 2 yds to the UMass 23

3rd & 9Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.03

Brady Olson pass complete to Tray Pettway for 4 yds to the UMass 27

4th & 5Punt0 yds

George Georgopoulos punt for 39 yds

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.50

Ellis Merriweather run for 1 yd to the Liber 33

2nd & 9Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.64

Ellis Merriweather run for 1 yd to the Liber 34

3rd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.02

Brady Olson pass incomplete

4th & 10Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA -1.49

Brady Olson pass complete to Onuma Dieke for 6 yds to the Liber 28

1st & 10Pass Reception+23 ydsPPA +2.09

Malik Willis pass complete to CJ Daniels for 23 yds to the UMass 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Passing Touchdown+49 ydsPPA +3.76

Malik Willis pass complete to Noah Frith for 49 yds for a TD, (Brayden Beck KICK)

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.11

Ellis Merriweather run for 4 yds to the UMass 29

2nd & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.65

Brady Olson pass incomplete to Tray Pettway

3rd & 6Pass Reception+15 ydsPPA +2.47

Brady Olson pass complete to Melvin Hill for 15 yds to the UMass 44 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.16

Brady Olson pass incomplete to Jermaine Johnson Jr.

2nd & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.73

Ellis Merriweather run for 1 yd to the UMass 43

3rd & 11Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.45

Brady Olson pass incomplete to Tray Pettway

4th & 11Punt+15 yds

George Georgopoulos punt for 44 yds , DJ Stubbs returns for 15 yds to the Liber 28

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.13

Malik Willis run for 4 yds to the Liber 32

2nd & 6Pass Reception+14 ydsPPA +1.80

Malik Willis pass complete to Noah Frith for 14 yds to the Liber 46 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.92

Malik Willis pass complete to CJ Daniels for 8 yds to the UMass 46

2nd & 2Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.15

Shedro Louis run for 2 yds to the UMass 44 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+13 ydsPPA +0.57

Malik Willis pass complete to CJ Daniels for 13 yds to the UMass 31 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.58

Malik Willis pass incomplete to CJ Daniels

2nd & 10Rush+19 ydsPPA +0.89

Malik Willis run for 19 yds to the UMass 12 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.45

Malik Willis pass complete to Shedro Louis for 8 yds to the UMass 4

2nd & 2Passing Touchdown+4 ydsPPA +2.08

Malik Willis pass complete to Johnny Huntley for 4 yds for a TD, (Brayden Beck KICK)

1st & 10Kickoff Return (Offense)+2 yds

Jason Stricker kickoff for 44 yds , Jacob Orlando return for 2 yds to the UMass 23

1st & 10Rush+13 ydsPPA +1.06

Ellis Merriweather run for 13 yds to the UMass 36 for a 1ST down

0th & 10End of Half0 yds

End of 2nd Quarter

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.45

T.J. Green run for 2 yds to the Liber 27

2nd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.48

Malik Willis pass incomplete to T.J. Green

3rd & 8Sack-10 ydsPPA -0.37

Malik Willis sacked for a loss of 10 yards to the Liber 17

4th & 18Punt0 yds

Aidan Alves punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Eric Collins at the UMass 37

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.11

Ellis Merriweather run for 5 yds to the UMass 42

2nd & 5Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.11

Brady Olson pass incomplete to Eric Collins

3rd & 5Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +2.37

Brady Olson pass complete to Jaret Pallotta for 10 yds to the Liber 48 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.84

Ellis Merriweather run for 1 yd to the Liber 49

2nd & 11Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.61

Brady Olson run for 2 yds to the Liber 47

3rd & 9Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +2.60

Brady Olson pass complete to Eric Collins for 11 yds to the Liber 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.24

Ellis Merriweather run for 6 yds to the Liber 30

2nd & 4Passing Touchdown+30 ydsPPA +2.77

Brady Olson pass complete to Rico Arnold for 30 yds for a TD, (Cameron Carson KICK)

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.70

Shedro Louis run for no gain to the Liber 25

2nd & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.15

Shedro Louis run for 3 yds to the Liber 28

3rd & 7Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.13

Malik Willis run for 6 yds to the Liber 34

4th & 1Rush+8 ydsPPA +2.24

Malik Willis run for 8 yds to the Liber 42 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +1.02

Malik Willis pass complete to DJ Stubbs for 12 yds to the UMass 46 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.31

Malik Willis pass complete to Noah Frith for 6 yds to the UMass 40

2nd & 4Penalty+15 yds

Willis,Malik pass incomplete to Frith,Noah PENALTY MAS Pass Interference (Wallace,Josh) 15 yards from MAS40 to MAS25, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.

1st & 10Penalty+10 yds

Willis,Malik pass incomplete to Brumm,Brody PENALTY MAS Holding (Wallace,Josh) 10 yards from MAS25 to MAS15, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.

1st & 10Penalty-5 yds

Willis,Malik pass complete to Douglas,Demario for 15 yards to the MAS00 TOUCHDOWN nullified by penalty, clock 00:00 PENALTY LIB Ineligible Downfield on Pass (Bodden,Jacob) 5 yards from MAS15 to MAS20. NO PLAY.

1st & 15Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +0.54

Malik Willis pass complete to Brody Brumm for 11 yds to the UMass 9

2nd & 4Rushing Touchdown+9 ydsPPA +2.38

Shedro Louis run for 9 yds for a TD, (Brayden Beck KICK)

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.41

Ellis Merriweather run for 3 yds to the UMass 38

2nd & 7Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.55

Ellis Merriweather run for 2 yds to the UMass 40

3rd & 5Penalty+10 yds

Olson,Brady pass incomplete to Johnson,Josiah, 1ST DOWN, PENALTY LIB Pass Interference (Stone,Cedric) 10 yards from MAS40 to MAS50, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.11

Brady Olson pass incomplete to Rico Arnold

2nd & 10Pass Reception+2 ydsPPA -0.62

Brady Olson pass complete to Jaret Pallotta for 2 yds to the UMass 48

3rd & 12Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.39

Ellis Merriweather run for 7 yds to the Liber 45

4th & 5Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.07

Brady Olson pass incomplete to Ellis Merriweather

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.11

Shedro Louis run for 5 yds to the 50 yard line

2nd & 5Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.16

Shedro Louis run for 4 yds to the UMass 46

3rd & 1Rush+11 ydsPPA +1.36

Nate Hampton run for 11 yds to the UMass 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.69

Nate Hampton pass incomplete to Treon Sibley

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.91

Nate Hampton pass incomplete to D'Wayne Crawford

3rd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.02

Nate Hampton pass incomplete to D'Wayne Crawford

4th & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA -1.40

Nate Hampton run for 7 yds to the UMass 28

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.80

Brady Olson pass incomplete to Melvin Hill

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.41

Brady Olson pass incomplete to Jermaine Johnson Jr.

3rd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.19

Brady Olson pass incomplete to Melvin Hill

4th & 10Punt0 yds

George Georgopoulos punt for 58 yds , Demario Douglas returns for no gain to the Liber 14

1st & 10Rush+13 ydsPPA +0.73

Kaidon Salter run for 13 yds to the Liber 27 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+38 ydsPPA +2.96

Kaidon Salter run for 38 yds to the UMass 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.69

Kaidon Salter pass incomplete to Brody Brumm

2nd & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.12

Kaidon Salter run for 4 yds to the UMass 39

3rd & 14Passing Touchdown+39 ydsPPA +5.44

Kaidon Salter pass complete to Brody Brumm for 39 yds for a TD, (Brayden Beck KICK)

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.30

Jared Chisari run for 3 yds to the UMass 28

2nd & 7Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.24

Jared Chisari run for 3 yds to the UMass 31

3rd & 4Pass Reception+2 ydsPPA -0.29

Brady Olson pass complete to Jared Chisari for 2 yds to the UMass 33

4th & 2Punt0 yds

George Georgopoulos punt for 59 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Liber 8

1st & 10Rush+12 ydsPPA +0.46

Nate Hampton run for 12 yds to the Liber 20 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.47

Troy Henderson run for 1 yd to the Liber 21

2nd & 9Rush0 ydsPPA -0.31

Nate Hampton run for no gain to the Liber 21

3rd & 9Penalty+15 yds

Hampton,Nate pass incomplete to Ogle,Eddie PENALTY MAS Pass Interference (Lindsey,Donte) 15 yards from LIB21 to LIB36, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.85

Troy Henderson run for 1 yd to the Liber 37

2nd & 9Passing Touchdown+63 ydsPPA +6.00

Nate Hampton pass complete to Khaleb Coleman for 63 yds for a TD, (Brayden Beck KICK)

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.09

Jared Chisari run for 5 yds to the UMass 30

2nd & 5Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.31

Jared Chisari run for 3 yds to the UMass 27

3rd & 8Rush+11 ydsPPA +2.06

Zamar Wise run for 11 yds to the UMass 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.17

Zamar Wise run for 4 yds to the UMass 42

2nd & 6Rush+10 ydsPPA +1.43

Jared Chisari run for 10 yds to the Liber 48 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.36

Jared Chisari run for 3 yds to the Liber 45

2nd & 7Penalty+15 yds

LIBERTY Penalty, Targeting (Cade Robinson) to the Liber 28 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.20

Jared Chisari run for 6 yds to the Liber 22

2nd & 4Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.54

Garrett Dzuro pass incomplete to Jacob Orlando

3rd & 4Rush+10 ydsPPA +0.57

Jared Chisari run for 10 yds to the Liber 12 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.02

Garrett Dzuro run for 4 yds to the Liber 8

2nd & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.31

Garrett Dzuro pass incomplete to Tray Pettway

3rd & 6Rushing Touchdown+8 ydsPPA +2.86

Jared Chisari run for 8 yds for a TD, (Cameron Carson KICK)

1st & 10Kickoff Return (Offense)+23 yds

CJ Kolodziey kickoff for 57 yds , Malik Caper return for 23 yds to the Liber 31

1st & 10Rush-2 ydsPPA -1.14

run for a loss of 2 yards to the Liber 29

2nd & 12Rush-2 ydsPPA -0.45

run for a loss of 2 yards to the Liber 27

Situational Analysis

Massachusetts

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
30%
27 plays
2nd
33%
9 plays
9%
11 plays
0%
3 plays
3rd
100%
1 play
67%
6 plays
29%
7 plays
60%
5 plays
4th
0%
1 play
50%
2 plays

Liberty

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
100%
1 play
52%
29 plays
100%
1 play
2nd
75%
4 plays
67%
3 plays
25%
12 plays
0%
1 play
3rd
100%
1 play
43%
7 plays
100%
1 play
4th
100%
2 plays
0%
1 play