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← Back to GamesSep 25, 2021Week 4

House Prediction

Model Margin

Penn State by 12.1

Home Win Probability

Penn State 78%

Market (consensus)

Penn State -29.5

Edge: Villanova +29.5 (17.4 pts)

fitted_v1 · Sep 25, 2021

Line Movement

No line movement to chart

Sportsbook snapshots publish once a line is posted for this game.

Team1Q2Q3Q4QFinal
Villanova
3001417
Penn StatePenn State
71014738

Scoring Timeline

Q1Q2Q3Q401428427-07-314-317-324-331-338-1038-17
Penn StateVillanova

Drive Chart

Own 20Own 4050Opp 40Opp 20VILPSVILPSVILPSVILPSVILPSVILPSVILPSVILPSVILPSVILPSVILPSVILPSVILPSPUNT3-8ydTD152ydPUNT34ydMISS1237ydFG1043ydTD575ydPUNT615ydFG765ydPUNT3-5ydPUNT57ydPUNT31ydPUNT3-2ydEND12ydTD283ydTO232ydPUNT630ydPUNT419ydTO31ydPUNT51ydTD872ydPUNT32ydTD542ydTD875ydPUNT731ydTD1094ydEND311yd

Box Score

Team statistics comparing Villanova and Penn State
StatisticVillanovaPenn State
Passing20-3422-31
Pass Yards222429
Rush Yards5880
Total Yards280509
Turnovers11
3rd Down4-143-12
Penalties4-503-35
Possession31:1528:45

Player Leaders

Player Leaders

Villanova
passing
Daniel Smith
20/34, 222 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
rushing
Jalen Jackson
7 CAR, 58 YDS
receiving
Rayjoun Pringle
4 REC, 107 YDS, 2 TD
defense
Penn State
passing
Sean Clifford
19/26, 401 YDS, 4 TD, 1 INT
rushing
John Lovett
11 CAR, 45 YDS
receiving
Parker Washington
5 REC, 148 YDS, 2 TD
defense

Play-by-Play

1st & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +1.25

Justin Covington run for 9 yds to the Villa 34

2nd & 1Pass Reception-2 ydsPPA -1.64

Daniel Smith pass complete to Justin Covington for a loss of 2 yards to the Villa 32

3rd & 3Penalty-15 yds

VILLANOVA Penalty, Personal Foul (Colin Gamroth) to the Villa 17

3rd & 18Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.04

Daniel Smith pass incomplete to Dez Boykin

4th & 18Punt0 yds

Connor Watkins punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Jahan Dotson at the PnSt 48

1st & 10Passing Touchdown+52 ydsPPA +4.01

Sean Clifford pass complete to Jahan Dotson for 52 yds for a TD (Jordan Stout KICK)

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.70

Justin Covington run for no gain to the Villa 25

2nd & 10Pass Reception0 ydsPPA -0.35

Daniel Smith pass complete to Jaaron Hayek for no gain to the Villa 25

3rd & 10Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.03

Daniel Smith pass complete to Todd Summers for 4 yds to the Villa 29

4th & 6Punt0 yds

Connor Watkins punt for 44 yds, downed at the PnSt 27

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.12

Keyvone Lee run for 4 yds to the PnSt 31

2nd & 6Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +1.01

Sean Clifford pass complete to Jahan Dotson for 6 yds to the PnSt 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +1.04

Sean Clifford pass complete to Jahan Dotson for 8 yds to the PnSt 45

2nd & 2Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.36

Sean Clifford pass incomplete to KeAndre Lambert-Smith

3rd & 2Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.80

Keyvone Lee run for 1 yd to the PnSt 46

4th & 1Rush+2 ydsPPA +2.17

Noah Cain run for 2 yds to the PnSt 48 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.88

Keyvone Lee run for 8 yds to the Villa 44

2nd & 2Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.12

Keyvone Lee run for 8 yds to the Villa 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.72

Sean Clifford pass incomplete to Cam Sullivan-Brown

2nd & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.94

John Lovett run for no gain to the Villa 36

3rd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.02

Sean Clifford pass incomplete to KeAndre Lambert-Smith

4th & 10Field Goal Missed+53 yds

Jordan Stout 53 yd FG MISSED

1st & 10Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +1.05

Daniel Smith pass complete to DeeWil Barlee for 11 yds to the Villa 47 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-2 ydsPPA -1.60

TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Villa 45

2nd & 12Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.67

Daniel Smith run for 1 yd to the Villa 46

3rd & 11Pass Reception+17 ydsPPA +3.32

Daniel Smith pass complete to Jaaron Hayek for 17 yds to the PnSt 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.40

Jalen Jackson run for 2 yds to the PnSt 35

2nd & 8Pass Reception0 ydsPPA -0.88

Daniel Smith pass complete to Jaaron Hayek for no gain to the PnSt 35

3rd & 8Penalty+15 yds

PENN ST Penalty, Roughing Passer (Dvon Ellies) to the PnSt 20 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.46

Justin Covington run for a loss of 1 yard to the PnSt 21

2nd & 11Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.51

Daniel Smith pass incomplete to Jaquan Allen

3rd & 11Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.79

Daniel Smith pass incomplete to Justin Covington

4th & 11Field Goal Good+39 yds

Cole Bunce 39 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.59

John Lovett run for 1 yd to the PnSt 26

2nd & 9Rush0 ydsPPA -0.41

John Lovett run for no gain to the PnSt 26

3rd & 9Pass Reception+25 ydsPPA +3.31

Sean Clifford pass complete to Theo Johnson for 25 yds to the Villa 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Sack-3 ydsPPA -1.78

Sean Clifford sacked by Bryce Ganious for a loss of 3 yards to the PnSt 48

2nd & 13Passing Touchdown+52 ydsPPA +5.54

Sean Clifford pass complete to Parker Washington for 52 yds for a TD (Jordan Stout KICK)

1st & 10Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.09

Daniel Smith pass complete to Todd Summers for 5 yds to the Villa 30

2nd & 5Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.75

Daniel Smith pass incomplete to Rayjoun Pringle

3rd & 5Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +1.78

Daniel Smith pass complete to Dez Boykin for 8 yds to the Villa 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.67

Daniel Smith run for 2 yds to the Villa 40

2nd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.87

Daniel Smith pass incomplete

3rd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.49

Daniel Smith pass incomplete to Jaaron Hayek

4th & 8Punt0 yds

Connor Watkins punt for 37 yds, downed at the PnSt 23

1st & 10Pass Reception-4 ydsPPA -0.92

Sean Clifford pass complete to Jahan Dotson for a loss of 4 yards to the PnSt 19

2nd & 14Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.02

Sean Clifford run for 5 yds to the PnSt 24

3rd & 9Pass Reception+67 ydsPPA +4.69

Sean Clifford pass complete to Parker Washington for 67 yds to the Villa 9 for a 1ST down

1st & 9Rush0 ydsPPA -0.32

Keyvone Lee run for no gain to the Villa 9

2nd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.27

Sean Clifford pass incomplete to Tyler Warren

3rd & 9Pass Reception-3 ydsPPA -0.77

Sean Clifford pass complete to Parker Washington for a loss of 3 yards to the Villa 12

4th & 12Field Goal Good+29 yds

Jordan Stout 29 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.45

Justin Covington run for 2 yds to the Villa 27

2nd & 8Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.31

Justin Covington run for 2 yds to the Villa 29

3rd & 6Sack-9 ydsPPA -0.52

Daniel Smith sacked by PJ Mustipher and TEAM for a loss of 9 yards to the Villa 20

4th & 15Punt+8 yds

Connor Watkins punt for 38 yds , Jahan Dotson returns for 8 yds to the 50 yard line

1st & 10Rush-4 ydsPPA -2.00

Sean Clifford run for a loss of 4 yards to the PnSt 46

2nd & 14Pass Reception+14 ydsPPA +2.65

Sean Clifford pass complete to Jahan Dotson for 14 yds to the Villa 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +0.84

Sean Clifford pass complete to Parker Washington for 9 yds to the Villa 31

2nd & 1Rush-1 ydsPPA -1.03

Sean Clifford run for a loss of 1 yard to the Villa 32

3rd & 2Rush-1 ydsPPA -1.17

John Lovett run for a loss of 1 yard to the Villa 33

4th & 3Penalty-10 yds

PENN ST Penalty, Offensive Holding (Rasheed Walker) to the Villa 43

4th & 13Punt0 yds

Jordan Stout punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Jared Wolfe at the Villa 5

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.18

DeeWil Barlee run for 2 yds to the Villa 7

2nd & 8Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.20

DeeWil Barlee run for a loss of 1 yard to the Villa 6

3rd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.06

Daniel Smith pass incomplete to Dez Boykin

4th & 9Punt+37 yds

Connor Watkins punt for 37 yds , Jahan Dotson returns for a loss of 1 yard to the Villa 44

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.32

Devyn Ford run for 3 yds to the Villa 41

2nd & 7Sack-6 ydsPPA -2.31

Sean Clifford sacked by Forrest Rhyne and Jared Nelson for a loss of 6 yards to the Villa 47

3rd & 13Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.56

Sean Clifford run for 1 yd to the Villa 46

4th & 12Punt0 yds

Jordan Stout punt for 44 yds, downed at the Villa 2

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.16

Daniel Smith run for 2 yds to the Villa 4

0th & 10End of Half0 yds

End of 2nd Quarter

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.48

Keyvone Lee run for no gain to the PnSt 17

2nd & 10Passing Touchdown+83 ydsPPA +7.02

Sean Clifford pass complete to KeAndre Lambert-Smith for 83 yds for a TD (Jordan Stout KICK)

1st & 10Pass Reception+32 ydsPPA +2.34

Daniel Smith pass complete to Rayjoun Pringle for 32 yds to the PnSt 33 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Interception Return+15 ydsPPA -4.10

Daniel Smith pass intercepted Ji'Ayir Brown return for 15 yds to the PnSt 20

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.29

John Lovett run for 6 yds to the PnSt 26

2nd & 4Rush+13 ydsPPA +1.24

John Lovett run for 13 yds to the PnSt 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +1.01

Sean Clifford pass complete to Jahan Dotson for 11 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down

1st & 10Sack-7 ydsPPA -2.52

Sean Clifford sacked by Forrest Rhyne for a loss of 7 yards to the PnSt 43

2nd & 17Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.54

Sean Clifford pass incomplete to Marquis Wilson

3rd & 17Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.21

Sean Clifford run for 7 yds to the 50 yard line

4th & 10Punt0 yds

Jordan Stout punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Jared Wolfe at the Villa 10

1st & 10Rush+14 ydsPPA +0.65

Jalen Jackson run for 14 yds to the Villa 24 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.67

Daniel Smith pass incomplete to Dez Boykin

2nd & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.04

Jalen Jackson run for 5 yds to the Villa 29

3rd & 5Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.35

Daniel Smith pass incomplete to Dez Boykin

4th & 5Punt+13 yds

Connor Watkins punt for 33 yds , Jahan Dotson returns for 13 yds to the Villa 49

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -1.10

Keyvone Lee run for no gain to the Villa 49

2nd & 10Pass Reception+1 ydsPPA -0.84

Sean Clifford pass complete to Keyvone Lee for 1 yd to the Villa 48

3rd & 9Pass Interception Return+2 ydsPPA -1.30

Sean Clifford pass intercepted Kshawn Schulters return for 2 yds to the Villa 34

1st & 10Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +1.38

Daniel Smith pass complete to TD Ayo-Durojaiye for 9 yds to the Villa 43

2nd & 1Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.23

Justin Covington run for 3 yds to the Villa 46 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-2 ydsPPA -1.60

Daniel Smith run for a loss of 2 yards to the Villa 44

2nd & 12Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.79

Daniel Smith pass incomplete to Rayjoun Pringle

3rd & 12Sack-9 ydsPPA -0.76

Daniel Smith sacked by Arnold Ebiketie for a loss of 9 yards to the Villa 35

4th & 21Punt+1 yds

Connor Watkins punt for 38 yds , Marquis Wilson returns for 1 yd to the PnSt 28

1st & 10Rush+11 ydsPPA +1.00

John Lovett run for 11 yds to the PnSt 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +1.35

John Lovett run for 9 yds to the PnSt 48

2nd & 1Penalty+15 yds

VILLANOVA Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Denzel Williams) to the Villa 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.40

John Lovett run for 2 yds to the Villa 35

2nd & 8Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +0.79

Sean Clifford pass complete to Cam Sullivan-Brown for 12 yds to the Villa 23 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.42

Sean Clifford pass incomplete to Tyler Warren

2nd & 10Pass Reception-9 ydsPPA -2.26

Sean Clifford pass complete to John Lovett for 1 yd to the Villa 22 PENN ST Penalty, Offensive Holding (Cam Sullivan-Brown) to the Villa 32

2nd & 19Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +0.72

Sean Clifford pass complete to Brenton Strange for 9 yds to the Villa 23

3rd & 10Passing Touchdown+23 ydsPPA +3.63

Sean Clifford pass complete to Parker Washington for 23 yds for a TD (Jordan Stout KICK)

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.70

Daniel Smith pass incomplete to Rayjoun Pringle

2nd & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.23

TD Ayo-Durojaiye run for 2 yds to the Villa 27

3rd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.22

Daniel Smith pass incomplete to Jaquan Allen

4th & 8Punt0 yds

Connor Watkins punt for 15 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Villa 42

1st & 10Pass Reception+30 ydsPPA +0.76

Sean Clifford pass complete to Jahan Dotson for 30 yds to the Villa 12 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.10

John Lovett run for 3 yds to the Villa 9

2nd & 7Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.06

Sean Clifford pass complete to KeAndre Lambert-Smith for 5 yds to the Villa 4

3rd & 2Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.25

John Lovett run for 1 yd to the Villa 3

4th & 1Rushing Touchdown+3 ydsPPA +2.82

Tyler Warren run for 3 yds for a TD (Jordan Stout KICK)

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.45

DeeWil Barlee run for 2 yds to the Villa 27

2nd & 8Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.06

Daniel Smith pass complete to Todd Summers for 5 yds to the Villa 32

3rd & 3Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA +1.22

Daniel Smith pass complete to DeeWil Barlee for 3 yds to the Villa 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.40

Daniel Smith pass complete to Todd Summers for 6 yds to the Villa 41

2nd & 4Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA +0.57

Daniel Smith pass complete to Jaquan Allen for 4 yds to the Villa 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Sack-8 ydsPPA -2.48

Daniel Smith sacked by Coziah Izzard for a loss of 8 yards to the Villa 37

2nd & 18Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.14

Jalen Jackson run for 6 yds to the Villa 43

3rd & 12Passing Touchdown+57 ydsPPA +6.62

Daniel Smith pass complete to Rayjoun Pringle for 57 yds for a TD (Cole Bunce KICK)

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.57

Ta'Quan Roberson run for 2 yds to the PnSt 33

2nd & 8Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +1.90

Ta'Quan Roberson pass complete to Marquis Wilson for 12 yds to the PnSt 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.93

Devyn Ford run for 1 yd to the PnSt 46

2nd & 9Pass Reception+14 ydsPPA +2.01

Ta'Quan Roberson pass complete to Marquis Wilson for 14 yds to the Villa 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+2 ydsPPA -0.45

Ta'Quan Roberson pass complete to Winston Eubanks for 2 yds to the Villa 38

2nd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.97

Ta'Quan Roberson pass incomplete to Harrison Wallace III

3rd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.04

Ta'Quan Roberson pass incomplete to Marquis Wilson

4th & 8Punt0 yds

Jordan Stout punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Jared Wolfe at the Villa 6

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.04

Jalen Jackson run for 4 yds to the Villa 10

2nd & 6Rush+20 ydsPPA +1.24

Jalen Jackson run for 20 yds to the Villa 30 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +1.03

Daniel Smith pass complete to Dez Boykin for 11 yds to the Villa 41 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +1.32

Daniel Smith pass complete to Jaaron Hayek for 9 yds to the 50 yard line

2nd & 1Rush+5 ydsPPA -0.14

Daniel Smith run for 5 yds to the PnSt 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty-5 yds

VILLANOVA Penalty, Illegal Formation (TEAM) to the 50 yard line

1st & 15Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.05

Daniel Smith pass incomplete to Andrew Perez

2nd & 15Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.50

Jalen Jackson run for 7 yds to the PnSt 43

3rd & 8Pass Reception+1 ydsPPA -0.80

Daniel Smith pass complete to Rayjoun Pringle for 1 yd to the PnSt 42

4th & 7Pass Reception+25 ydsPPA +3.32

Daniel Smith pass complete to Todd Summers for 25 yds to the PnSt 17 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Passing Touchdown+17 ydsPPA +2.58

Daniel Smith pass complete to Rayjoun Pringle for 17 yds for a TD (Cole Bunce KICK)

1st & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +1.38

Caziah Holmes run for 9 yds to the PnSt 46

2nd & 1Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.06

Tank Smith run for 7 yds to the Villa 47 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-5 ydsPPA -2.16

TEAM run for a loss of 5 yards to the PnSt 48

Situational Analysis

Villanova

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
40%
25 plays
0%
1 play
2nd
0%
3 plays
67%
3 plays
25%
8 plays
40%
5 plays
3rd
100%
1 play
33%
3 plays
0%
5 plays
40%
5 plays
4th
100%
1 play

Penn State

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
36%
28 plays
2nd
50%
4 plays
100%
2 plays
42%
12 plays
80%
5 plays
3rd
0%
3 plays
43%
7 plays
50%
2 plays
4th
100%
2 plays