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← Back to GamesSep 4, 2021Week 1
Conference Game

House Prediction

Model Margin

Wisconsin by 6.9

Home Win Probability

Wisconsin 66%

Market (consensus)

Wisconsin -5.5

Edge: Wisconsin -5.5 (1.4 pts)

fitted_v1 · Sep 4, 2021

Line Movement

No line movement to chart

Sportsbook snapshots publish once a line is posted for this game.

Team1Q2Q3Q4QFinal
Penn StatePenn State
007916
WisconsinWisconsin
007310

Scoring Timeline

Q1Q2Q3Q40147-710-710-16
WisconsinPenn State

Drive Chart

Own 20Own 4050Opp 40Opp 20PSWISPSWISPSWISPSWISPSWISPSWISWISPSWISPSWISPSWISPSWISPSWISPSWISPUNT3-3ydPUNT69ydDOWNS731ydPUNT37ydPUNT31ydMISS1546ydPUNT31ydTO1262ydPUNT3-1ydPUNT511ydPUNT39ydEND36ydPUNT39ydTD486ydTD1075ydMISS873ydPUNT35ydPUNT3-11ydFG1055ydFG861ydPUNT32ydTD568ydTO1767ydPUNT3-1ydTO750yd

Box Score

Team statistics comparing Penn State and Wisconsin
StatisticPenn StateWisconsin
Passing18-3322-37
Pass Yards247185
Rush Yards50180
Total Yards297365
Turnovers03
3rd Down3-137-22
Penalties7-797-42
Possession17:0942:51

Player Leaders

Player Leaders

Penn State
passing
Sean Clifford
18/33, 247 YDS, 1 TD
rushing
Noah Cain
8 CAR, 48 YDS, 1 TD
receiving
Jahan Dotson
5 REC, 102 YDS, 1 TD
defense
Wisconsin
passing
Graham Mertz
22/37, 185 YDS, 2 INT
rushing
Chez Mellusi
31 CAR, 121 YDS, 1 TD
receiving
Danny Davis III
8 REC, 99 YDS
defense

Play-by-Play

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.80

Noah Cain run for a loss of 1 yard to the PnSt 24

2nd & 11Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +0.78

Sean Clifford pass complete to Jahan Dotson for 10 yds to the PnSt 34

3rd & 1Penalty-5 yds

PENN ST Penalty, False Start (Rasheed Walker) to the PnSt 29

3rd & 6Sack-7 ydsPPA -0.49

Sean Clifford sacked by Jack Sanborn for a loss of 7 yards to the PnSt 22

4th & 13Punt0 yds

Jordan Stout punt for 55 yds, fair catch by Dean Engram at the Wisc 23

1st & 10Rush-4 ydsPPA -0.92

Chez Mellusi run for a loss of 4 yards to the Wisc 19

2nd & 14Rush+14 ydsPPA +1.70

Chez Mellusi run for 14 yds to the Wisc 33 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+12 ydsPPA +1.15

Chez Mellusi run for 12 yds to the Wisc 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Sack-18 ydsPPA -3.01

Graham Mertz sacked by Ellis Brooks for a loss of 18 yards to the Wisc 27 WISCONSIN Penalty, Intentional Grounding (Graham Mertz) to the Wisc 27

2nd & 28Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.01

Graham Mertz pass complete to Jake Ferguson for 5 yds to the Wisc 32

3rd & 23Rush0 ydsPPA -0.07

Chez Mellusi run for no gain to the Wisc 32

4th & 23Punt+10 yds

Andy Vujnovich punt for 43 yds , Jahan Dotson returns for 10 yds to the PnSt 35

1st & 10Pass Reception+1 ydsPPA -0.83

Sean Clifford pass complete to KeAndre Lambert-Smith for 1 yd to the PnSt 36

2nd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.68

Sean Clifford pass incomplete to Jahan Dotson

3rd & 9Pass Reception+24 ydsPPA +3.57

Sean Clifford pass complete to Parker Washington for 24 yds to the Wisc 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+2 ydsPPA -0.45

Sean Clifford pass complete to Jahan Dotson for 2 yds to the Wisc 38

2nd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.97

Sean Clifford pass incomplete to Noah Cain

3rd & 8Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.16

Noah Cain run for 4 yds to the Wisc 34

4th & 4Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -2.22

Sean Clifford pass incomplete to KeAndre Lambert-Smith

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.99

Chez Mellusi run for no gain to the Wisc 34

2nd & 10Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.45

Graham Mertz pass complete to Jake Ferguson for 7 yds to the Wisc 41

3rd & 3Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.78

Graham Mertz pass incomplete

4th & 3Punt0 yds

Andy Vujnovich punt for 59 yds for a touchback

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.36

Sean Clifford run for 2 yds to the PnSt 22

2nd & 8Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.42

Keyvone Lee run for a loss of 1 yard to the PnSt 21

3rd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.14

Sean Clifford pass incomplete to Theo Johnson

4th & 9Punt0 yds

Jordan Stout punt for 47 yds , Dean Engram returns for no gain to the Wisc 21 PENN ST Penalty, Kick Catching Interference (A.J. Lytton) to the Wisc 47

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.41

Chez Mellusi run for 3 yds to the 50 yard line

2nd & 7Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.36

Graham Mertz pass complete to Jack Eschenbach for 6 yds to the PnSt 44

3rd & 1Rush+2 ydsPPA +0.85

John Chenal run for 2 yds to the PnSt 42 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.10

Chez Mellusi run for 4 yds to the PnSt 38

2nd & 6Rush-3 ydsPPA -1.64

Chez Mellusi run for a loss of 3 yards to the PnSt 41

3rd & 9Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.75

Graham Mertz pass complete to Jake Ferguson for 8 yds to the PnSt 33

4th & 1Rush+2 ydsPPA +1.44

Chez Mellusi run for 2 yds to the PnSt 31 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+19 ydsPPA +0.31

Chez Mellusi run for 19 yds to the PnSt 12 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.45

Kendric Pryor run for 8 yds to the PnSt 4

2nd & 2Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.39

Chez Mellusi run for 1 yd to the PnSt 3

3rd & 1Rush+1 ydsPPA +1.26

Graham Mertz run for 1 yd to the PnSt 2 for a 1ST down

1st & 2Penalty-5 yds

WISCONSIN Penalty, False Start (Kayden Lyles) to the PnSt 7

1st & 7Rush0 ydsPPA -0.41

Chez Mellusi run for no gain to the PnSt 7

2nd & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.28

Graham Mertz pass incomplete to Kendric Pryor

3rd & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.33

Graham Mertz pass incomplete to Jake Ferguson

4th & 7Blocked Field Goal+25 yds

Collin Larsh 25 yd FG BLOCKED blocked by Arnold Ebiketie

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.36

Keyvone Lee run for 2 yds to the PnSt 22

2nd & 8Pass Reception-1 ydsPPA -0.42

Sean Clifford pass complete to Jahan Dotson for a loss of 1 yard to the PnSt 21

3rd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.14

Sean Clifford pass incomplete

4th & 9Punt0 yds

Jordan Stout punt for 54 yds, fair catch by Dean Engram at the Wisc 25

1st & 10Rush+15 ydsPPA +1.32

Isaac Guerendo run for 15 yds to the Wisc 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.43

Isaac Guerendo run for 3 yds to the Wisc 43

2nd & 7Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.37

Isaac Guerendo run for 6 yds to the Wisc 49

3rd & 1Rush0 ydsPPA -1.14

John Chenal run for no gain to the Wisc 49

4th & 1Rush+2 ydsPPA +2.19

Graham Mertz run for 2 yds to the PnSt 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -1.10

Isaac Guerendo run for no gain to the PnSt 49

2nd & 10Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +1.06

Graham Mertz pass complete to Danny Davis III for 9 yds to the PnSt 40

3rd & 1Rush+1 ydsPPA +0.66

Graham Mertz run for 1 yd to the PnSt 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty+14 yds

PENN ST Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Kalen King) to the PnSt 25 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+13 ydsPPA +0.17

Chez Mellusi run for 13 yds to the PnSt 12 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-2 ydsPPA -0.42

Chez Mellusi run for a loss of 2 yards to the PnSt 14

2nd & 12Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.10

Graham Mertz pass complete to Jake Ferguson for 6 yds to the PnSt 8

3rd & 6Fumble Recovery (Opponent)-5 ydsPPA -4.14

Graham Mertz run for a loss of 5 yards to the PnSt 13 Graham Mertz fumbled, recovered by PnSt Nick Tarburton

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.40

Sean Clifford pass incomplete to Jahan Dotson

2nd & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.12

Sean Clifford run for 2 yds to the PnSt 15

3rd & 8Pass Reception-3 ydsPPA -0.15

Sean Clifford pass complete to Noah Cain for a loss of 3 yards to the PnSt 12

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.31

Chez Mellusi run for 3 yds to the Wisc 29

4th & 11Punt+7 yds

Andy Vujnovich punt for 45 yds , Jahan Dotson returns for 7 yds to the PnSt 44 PENN ST Penalty, Illegal Block (10 Yards) to the PnSt 15

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.44

Sean Clifford pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.32

Sean Clifford pass complete to Parker Washington for 8 yds to the PnSt 23

3rd & 2Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.32

Devyn Ford run for 1 yd to the PnSt 24

4th & 1Punt+8 yds

Jordan Stout punt for 53 yds , Dean Engram returns for 8 yds to the Wisc 31

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.89

Isaac Guerendo run for no gain to the Wisc 31

2nd & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.22

Isaac Guerendo run for 6 yds to the Wisc 37

3rd & 4Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.60

Graham Mertz pass incomplete

0th & 4End of Half0 yds

End of 2nd Quarter

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.59

Chez Mellusi run for 1 yd to the Wisc 26

2nd & 9Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.56

Graham Mertz pass complete to Danny Davis III for 8 yds to the Wisc 34

3rd & 1Rush0 ydsPPA -0.70

Chez Mellusi run for no gain to the Wisc 34

4th & 1Punt0 yds

Andy Vujnovich punt for 52 yds, fair catch by Jahan Dotson at the PnSt 14

1st & 10Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +0.94

Sean Clifford pass complete to Parker Washington for 9 yds to the PnSt 23

2nd & 1Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA -0.05

Sean Clifford pass complete to Parker Washington for 6 yds to the PnSt 29 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +1.12

Sean Clifford pass complete to KeAndre Lambert-Smith for 12 yds to the PnSt 41 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty+10 yds

WISCONSIN Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Faion Hicks) to the Wisc 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Passing Touchdown+49 ydsPPA +3.76

Sean Clifford pass complete to Jahan Dotson for 49 yds for a TD, (Jordan Stout KICK)

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.70

Graham Mertz pass incomplete to Jack Dunn

2nd & 10Rush+15 ydsPPA +2.02

Chez Mellusi run for 15 yds to the Wisc 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.43

Chez Mellusi run for 3 yds to the Wisc 43

2nd & 7Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +1.50

Graham Mertz pass complete to Chimere Dike for 9 yds to the PnSt 48 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+23 ydsPPA +0.99

Graham Mertz pass complete to Danny Davis III for 23 yds to the PnSt 25 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +0.65

Kendric Pryor run for 9 yds to the PnSt 16

2nd & 1Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.50

Chez Mellusi run for 2 yds to the PnSt 14 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.25

Chez Mellusi run for 1 yd to the PnSt 13

2nd & 9Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +1.33

Graham Mertz pass complete to Jake Ferguson for 10 yds to the PnSt 3 for a 1ST down

1st & 3Rushing Touchdown+3 ydsPPA +1.46

Chez Mellusi run for 3 yds for a TD, (Collin Larsh KICK)

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.59

Sean Clifford pass incomplete to Theo Johnson

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.28

Sean Clifford pass incomplete to Jahan Dotson

3rd & 10Pass Reception+52 ydsPPA +4.45

Sean Clifford pass complete to KeAndre Lambert-Smith for 52 yds to the Wisc 27 for a 1ST down

2nd & 10Penalty+14 yds

WISCONSIN Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Caesar Williams) to the Wisc 13 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.30

Sean Clifford pass incomplete to Parker Washington

2nd & 10Pass Reception0 ydsPPA -0.33

Sean Clifford pass complete to Noah Cain for no gain to the Wisc 13

3rd & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.19

Sean Clifford run for 7 yds to the Wisc 6

4th & 3Field Goal Missed+24 yds

Jordan Stout 24 yd FG MISSED

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.09

Isaac Guerendo run for 5 yds to the Wisc 25

2nd & 5Pass Reception0 ydsPPA -0.61

Graham Mertz pass complete to Jake Ferguson for no gain to the Wisc 25

3rd & 5Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.28

Graham Mertz pass incomplete to Chimere Dike

4th & 5Punt0 yds

Andy Vujnovich punt for 40 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the PnSt 35

1st & 10Rush-5 ydsPPA -1.64

Keyvone Lee run for a loss of 5 yards to the PnSt 30

2nd & 15Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.29

Sean Clifford pass incomplete to Jahan Dotson

3rd & 15Sack-6 ydsPPA -0.20

Sean Clifford sacked by Nick Herbig for a loss of 6 yards to the PnSt 24

4th & 21Punt0 yds

Jordan Stout punt for 76 yds for a touchback

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.53

Chez Mellusi run for 7 yds to the Wisc 27

2nd & 3Pass Reception+17 ydsPPA +1.49

Graham Mertz pass complete to Danny Davis III for 17 yds to the Wisc 44 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+11 ydsPPA +0.89

Chez Mellusi run for 11 yds to the PnSt 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.77

Chez Mellusi run for 1 yd to the PnSt 44

2nd & 9Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.53

Graham Mertz pass complete to Danny Davis III for 7 yds to the PnSt 37

3rd & 2Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.93

Isaac Guerendo run for 8 yds to the PnSt 29 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.29

Chez Mellusi run for 2 yds to the PnSt 27

2nd & 8Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.34

Chez Mellusi run for 2 yds to the PnSt 25

3rd & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.79

Graham Mertz pass incomplete to Chimere Dike

4th & 6Field Goal Good+43 yds

Collin Larsh 43 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Rush+34 ydsPPA +2.58

Noah Cain run for 34 yds to the Wisc 34 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.23

Sean Clifford pass complete to KeAndre Lambert-Smith for 6 yds to the Wisc 28

2nd & 4Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.67

Sean Clifford pass incomplete to KeAndre Lambert-Smith

3rd & 4Pass Reception+13 ydsPPA +0.82

Sean Clifford pass complete to Noah Cain for 13 yds to the Wisc 15 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.32

Sean Clifford pass incomplete to Jahan Dotson

2nd & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.19

Sean Clifford run for 7 yds to the Wisc 8

3rd & 3Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.27

Noah Cain run for 1 yd to the Wisc 7

4th & 2Field Goal Good+24 yds

Jordan Stout 24 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.70

Graham Mertz pass incomplete to Danny Davis III

2nd & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.23

Isaac Guerendo run for 2 yds to the Wisc 27

3rd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.22

Graham Mertz pass incomplete to Kendric Pryor

4th & 8Punt0 yds

Andy Vujnovich punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Jahan Dotson at the PnSt 32

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.11

Noah Cain run for 5 yds to the PnSt 37

2nd & 5Pass Reception+42 ydsPPA +2.78

Sean Clifford pass complete to Jahan Dotson for 42 yds to the Wisc 21 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.39

Sean Clifford pass incomplete to Brenton Strange

2nd & 10Pass Reception+16 ydsPPA +1.14

Sean Clifford pass complete to Noah Cain for 16 yds to the Wisc 5 for a 1ST down

1st & 5Penalty+3 yds

WISCONSIN Penalty, Defensive Offside (3 Yards) to the Wisc 2

1st & 2Rushing Touchdown+2 ydsPPA +1.21

Noah Cain run for 2 yds for a TD, (Jordan Stout PAT MISSED)

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.45

Chez Mellusi run for 2 yds to the Wisc 27

2nd & 8Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.23

Graham Mertz pass complete to Chez Mellusi for 6 yds to the Wisc 33

3rd & 2Rush+10 ydsPPA +1.83

Chimere Dike run for 10 yds to the Wisc 43 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +0.92

Graham Mertz pass complete to Kendric Pryor for 11 yds to the PnSt 46 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.57

Chez Mellusi run for 2 yds to the PnSt 44

2nd & 8Pass Reception+2 ydsPPA -0.62

Graham Mertz pass complete to Chez Mellusi for 2 yds to the PnSt 42

3rd & 6Rush+19 ydsPPA +2.07

Graham Mertz run for 4 yds to the PnSt 38 for a 1ST down PENN ST Penalty, Personal Foul (Ellis Brooks) to the PnSt 23 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.23

Isaac Guerendo run for 2 yds to the PnSt 21

2nd & 8Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.27

Isaac Guerendo run for 7 yds to the PnSt 14

3rd & 1Rush+2 ydsPPA +0.09

Graham Mertz run for 2 yds to the PnSt 12 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.10

Isaac Guerendo run for 3 yds to the PnSt 9

2nd & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.30

Graham Mertz pass incomplete

3rd & 7Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +1.98

Graham Mertz pass complete to Danny Davis III for 8 yds to the PnSt 1 for a 1ST down

1st & 1Fumble Recovery (Own)-6 ydsPPA -1.67

Graham Mertz run for a loss of 6 yards to the PnSt 7 Graham Mertz fumbled, recovered by Wisc Isaac Guerendo

2nd & 7Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.34

Isaac Guerendo run for a loss of 1 yard to the PnSt 8

3rd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.35

Graham Mertz pass incomplete to Jack Dunn

4th & 8Pass Interception Return+41 ydsPPA -3.70

Graham Mertz pass intercepted Jaquan Brisker return for 41 yds to the PnSt 43

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -1.37

Noah Cain run for a loss of 1 yard to the PnSt 42

2nd & 11Pass Reception+1 ydsPPA -0.64

Sean Clifford pass complete to Noah Cain for 1 yd to the PnSt 43

3rd & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.10

Noah Cain run for 4 yds to the PnSt 47

4th & 6Penalty-5 yds

PENN ST Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the PnSt 42

4th & 11Punt0 yds

Jordan Stout punt for 40 yds , Jack Dunn returns for no gain to the Wisc 18

1st & 10Pass Reception+16 ydsPPA +1.15

Graham Mertz pass complete to Danny Davis III for 16 yds to the Wisc 34 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.64

Graham Mertz pass complete to Jake Ferguson for 8 yds to the PnSt 32

2nd & 2Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA -0.15

Graham Mertz pass complete to Jake Ferguson for 7 yds to the PnSt 25 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.45

Graham Mertz pass incomplete to Chimere Dike

2nd & 10Sack-7 ydsPPA -1.96

Graham Mertz sacked by Arnold Ebiketie for a loss of 7 yards to the PnSt 32 WISCONSIN Penalty, Intentional Grounding (Graham Mertz) to the PnSt 32

3rd & 17Pass Interception Return+6 ydsPPA -1.89

Graham Mertz pass intercepted Ji'Ayir Brown return for 6 yds to the PnSt 14

Situational Analysis

Penn State

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
100%
1 play
32%
19 plays
2nd
0%
1 play
50%
2 plays
30%
10 plays
33%
3 plays
3rd
0%
2 plays
50%
2 plays
38%
8 plays
0%
1 play
4th
0%
1 play

Wisconsin

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
50%
2 plays
36%
36 plays
2nd
25%
4 plays
0%
2 plays
63%
19 plays
100%
3 plays
3rd
67%
9 plays
20%
5 plays
40%
5 plays
0%
2 plays
4th
100%
2 plays
0%
1 play