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← Back to GamesNov 13, 2021Week 11
Conference Game

House Prediction

Model Margin

Wisconsin by 31.4

Home Win Probability

Wisconsin 97%

Market (consensus)

Wisconsin -25.5

Edge: Wisconsin -25.5 (5.9 pts)

fitted_v1 · Nov 13, 2021

Line Movement

No line movement to chart

Sportsbook snapshots publish once a line is posted for this game.

Team1Q2Q3Q4QFinal
NorthwesternNorthwestern
00077
WisconsinWisconsin
02114035

Scoring Timeline

Q1Q2Q3Q401428427-014-021-028-035-7
WisconsinNorthwestern

Drive Chart

Own 20Own 4050Opp 40Opp 20WISNORWISNORWISNORWISNORWISNORNORWISNORWISNORWISNORWISNORWISWISNORWISNORWISPUNT424ydTO1982ydTD991ydPUNT3-2ydTD750ydPUNT3-13ydTD649ydPUNT514ydTO974ydUncategorized14ydPUNT512ydPUNT37ydMISS560ydPUNT742ydTO10ydTD314ydTO430ydTD239ydPUNT523ydTD634ydTO310ydDOWNS628ydPUNT522ydDOWNS48ydEND521yd

Box Score

Team statistics comparing Northwestern and Wisconsin
StatisticNorthwesternWisconsin
Passing13-2619-25
Pass Yards125229
Rush Yards114268
Total Yards239497
Turnovers43
3rd Down3-136-11
Penalties5-417-39
Possession25:3834:22

Player Leaders

Player Leaders

Northwestern
passing
Andrew Marty
10/18, 100 YDS, 3 INT
rushing
Stephon Robinson
2 CAR, 54 YDS
receiving
Stephon Robinson
5 REC, 80 YDS
defense
Wisconsin
passing
Graham Mertz
18/23, 216 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
rushing
Braelon Allen
25 CAR, 173 YDS, 3 TD
receiving
Danny Davis III
3 REC, 46 YDS, 1 TD
defense

Play-by-Play

1st & 10Pass Reception+16 ydsPPA +1.45

Graham Mertz pass complete to Braelon Allen for 16 yds to the Wisc 42 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.17

Braelon Allen run for 4 yds to the Wisc 46

2nd & 6Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.17

Braelon Allen run for 4 yds to the 50 yard line

3rd & 2Rush0 ydsPPA -1.10

Braelon Allen run for no gain to the 50 yard line

4th & 2Punt0 yds

Andy Vujnovich punt for 42 yds, downed at the Nwest 8

1st & 10Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.55

Andrew Marty pass complete to Stephon Robinson Jr. for 8 yds to the Nwest 16

2nd & 2Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.09

Evan Hull run for 7 yds to the Nwest 23 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.57

Stephon Robinson Jr. run for 7 yds to the Nwest 30

2nd & 3Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.77

Evan Hull run for 1 yd to the Nwest 31

3rd & 2Rush+4 ydsPPA +1.17

Evan Hull run for 4 yds to the Nwest 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.01

Andrew Marty pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.06

Andrew Marty pass complete to Evan Hull for 5 yds to the Nwest 40

3rd & 5Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +2.27

Andrew Marty pass complete to Stephon Robinson Jr. for 9 yds to the Nwest 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.13

Andrew Marty pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+14 ydsPPA +2.00

Andrew Marty run for 14 yds to the Wisc 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.59

Evan Hull run for 8 yds to the Wisc 29

2nd & 2Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.58

Evan Hull run for 1 yd to the Wisc 28

3rd & 1Rush+1 ydsPPA +0.30

Andrew Marty run for 1 yd to the Wisc 27 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.04

Evan Hull run for 4 yds to the Wisc 23

2nd & 6Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.16

Andrew Marty run for 3 yds to the Wisc 20

3rd & 3Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.75

Malik Washington run for a loss of 1 yard to the Wisc 21

4th & 4Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +1.27

Andrew Marty pass complete to Evan Hull for 12 yds to the Wisc 9 for a 1ST down

1st & 9Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.37

Evan Hull run for a loss of 1 yard to the Wisc 10

1st & 10Penalty0 yds

WISCONSIN Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Caesar Williams) to the Wisc 2

2nd & 10Pass Interception Return0 ydsPPA -4.20

Andrew Marty pass intercepted return for no gain to the Wisc 9

1st & 14Rush+37 ydsPPA +2.57

Braelon Allen run for 37 yds to the Wisc 42 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +1.30

Braelon Allen run for 9 yds to the Nwest 49

2nd & 1Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.02

Braelon Allen run for 8 yds to the Nwest 41 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.27

Braelon Allen run for 6 yds to the Nwest 35

2nd & 4Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.47

Brady Schipper run for 2 yds to the Nwest 33

3rd & 2Rush+11 ydsPPA +0.79

Braelon Allen run for 11 yds to the Nwest 22 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+13 ydsPPA +0.22

Braelon Allen run for 13 yds to the Nwest 9 for a 1ST down

1st & 9Penalty-5 yds

WISCONSIN Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Nwest 14

1st & 14Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.08

Brady Schipper run for 3 yds to the Nwest 11

2nd & 11Penalty+9 yds

MERTZ, Graham pass up the middle incomplete intended for DAVIS III, Danny thrown to the NWU0. PENALTY NWU Pass Interference on MITCHELL, Cameron enforced at the spot of the foul for 9 yards to the NWU2 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

1st & 2Rushing Touchdown+2 ydsPPA +1.21

Braelon Allen run for 2 yds for a TD (Collin Larsh KICK)

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.80

Evan Hull run for a loss of 1 yard to the Nwest 24

2nd & 11Rush-4 ydsPPA -0.41

Calvin Johnson II run for a loss of 4 yards to the Nwest 20

3rd & 15Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.03

Andrew Marty pass complete to Marshall Lang for 3 yds to the Nwest 23

4th & 12Punt0 yds

Derek Adams punt for 27 yds, downed at the 50 yard line

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.14

Braelon Allen run for 4 yds to the Nwest 46

2nd & 6Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.89

Graham Mertz pass complete to Jake Ferguson for 8 yds to the Nwest 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +0.80

Braelon Allen run for 9 yds to the Nwest 29

2nd & 1Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.43

Braelon Allen run for 3 yds to the Nwest 26 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty-5 yds

WISCONSIN Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Nwest 31

1st & 15Pass Reception+17 ydsPPA +0.69

Graham Mertz pass complete to Danny Davis III for 17 yds to the Nwest 14 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.25

Braelon Allen run for 1 yd to the Nwest 13

2nd & 9Passing Touchdown+13 ydsPPA +2.79

Graham Mertz pass complete to Danny Davis III for 13 yds for a TD (Collin Larsh KICK)

1st & 10Rush-2 ydsPPA -0.89

Stephon Robinson Jr. run for a loss of 2 yards to the Nwest 23

2nd & 12Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.25

Andrew Marty pass incomplete

3rd & 12Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.09

Andrew Marty run for 1 yd to the Nwest 24

4th & 11Penalty0 yds

NORTHWESTERN Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (TEAM) to the Nwest 6

4th & 23Punt0 yds

Derek Adams punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Danny Davis III at the Nwest 49

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -1.10

Braelon Allen run for no gain to the Nwest 49

2nd & 10Pass Reception+1 ydsPPA -0.84

Graham Mertz pass complete to John Chenal for 1 yd to the Nwest 48

3rd & 9Pass Reception+13 ydsPPA +2.72

Graham Mertz pass complete to Jake Ferguson for 13 yds to the Nwest 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.56

Graham Mertz pass complete to Jack Eschenbach for 8 yds to the Nwest 27

2nd & 2Pass Reception+24 ydsPPA +0.94

Graham Mertz pass complete to Brady Schipper for 24 yds to the Nwest 3 for a 1ST down

1st & 3Rushing Touchdown+3 ydsPPA +1.46

Braelon Allen run for 3 yds for a TD (Collin Larsh KICK)

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.70

Andrew Marty run for no gain to the Nwest 25

2nd & 10Pass Reception+24 ydsPPA +2.86

Andrew Marty pass complete to Malik Washington for 24 yds to the Nwest 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.64

Evan Hull run for 2 yds to the Wisc 49

2nd & 8Pass Reception-6 ydsPPA -2.08

Andrew Marty pass complete to Evan Hull for a loss of 6 yards to the Nwest 45

3rd & 14Sack0 ydsPPA -0.40

Andrew Marty sacked by Matt Henningsen for 0 yards to the Nwest 39

4th & 20Punt0 yds

Derek Adams punt for 58 yds

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.17

Braelon Allen run for 2 yds to the Wisc 5

2nd & 8Pass Reception+13 ydsPPA +0.64

Graham Mertz pass complete to Jack Dunn for 13 yds to the Wisc 18 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.51

Graham Mertz pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.23

Braelon Allen run for 7 yds to the Wisc 25

3rd & 3Pass Reception+23 ydsPPA +2.76

Graham Mertz pass complete to Kendric Pryor for 23 yds to the Wisc 48 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty-5 yds

WISCONSIN Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Wisc 43

1st & 15Pass Reception+16 ydsPPA +1.98

Graham Mertz pass complete to Danny Davis III for 16 yds to the Nwest 41 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+18 ydsPPA +0.58

Graham Mertz pass complete to Chimere Dike for 18 yds to the Nwest 23 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.42

Graham Mertz pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Interception Return0 ydsPPA -3.92

Graham Mertz pass intercepted, touchback. return for no gain

0th & 6End of Half0 yds

End of 2nd Quarter

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.07

Andrew Marty pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+12 ydsPPA +2.19

Andrew Marty run for 12 yds to the Nwest 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-3 ydsPPA -1.80

Evan Hull run for a loss of 3 yards to the Nwest 46

2nd & 13Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.50

Andrew Marty pass complete to Stephon Robinson Jr. for 7 yds to the Wisc 47

3rd & 6Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.79

Evan Hull run for 1 yd to the Wisc 46

4th & 5Penalty-5 yds

NORTHWESTERN Penalty, False Start (Malik Washington) to the Nwest 49

4th & 10Punt0 yds

Derek Adams punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Danny Davis III at the Wisc 12

1st & 10Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.62

Graham Mertz pass complete to Kendric Pryor for 8 yds to the Wisc 20

2nd & 2Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.83

Braelon Allen run for a loss of 1 yard to the Wisc 19

3rd & 3Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.27

Graham Mertz pass incomplete

4th & 3Punt0 yds

Andy Vujnovich punt for 55 yds , JJ Jefferson returns for no gain to the Nwest 26

1st & 10Rush+19 ydsPPA +1.73

Andrew Clair run for 19 yds to the Wisc 6 for a 1ST down

1st & 6Penalty-5 yds

NORTHWESTERN Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Wisc 11

1st & 11Rush-2 ydsPPA -0.38

Evan Hull run for a loss of 2 yards to the Wisc 13

2nd & 13Pass Reception-1 ydsPPA -0.46

Andrew Marty pass complete to Thomas Gordon for a loss of 1 yard to the Wisc 14

3rd & 14Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.67

Andrew Marty pass incomplete

4th & 14Field Goal Missed+32 yds

Charlie Kuhbander 32 yd FG MISSED

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.56

Braelon Allen run for no gain to the Wisc 20

2nd & 10Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +1.34

Graham Mertz pass complete to Jake Ferguson for 11 yds to the Wisc 31 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +1.36

Braelon Allen run for 9 yds to the Wisc 40

2nd & 1Rush+15 ydsPPA +0.77

Brady Schipper run for 15 yds to the Nwest 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty-5 yds

WISCONSIN Penalty, False Start (Scott Nelson) to the 50 yard line

1st & 15Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.29

Graham Mertz pass complete to Brady Schipper for 6 yds to the Nwest 44

2nd & 9Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.30

Graham Mertz pass complete to Chimere Dike for 6 yds to the Nwest 38

3rd & 3Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.09

Graham Mertz pass incomplete

4th & 3Punt0 yds

Conor Schlichting punt for 25 yds, fair catch by JJ Jefferson at the Nwest 13

1st & 10Pass Interception Return0 ydsPPA -0.30

Andrew Marty pass intercepted return for no gain to the Nwest 14

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.10

Braelon Allen run for 3 yds to the Nwest 11

2nd & 7Rush0 ydsPPA -0.32

Braelon Allen run for no gain to the Nwest 11

3rd & 7Passing Touchdown+11 ydsPPA +2.96

Graham Mertz pass complete to Jake Ferguson for 11 yds for a TD (Collin Larsh KICK)

1st & 10Pass Reception+39 ydsPPA +3.07

Andrew Marty pass complete to Stephon Robinson Jr. for 39 yds to the Wisc 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.38

Andrew Marty run for 2 yds to the Wisc 34

2nd & 8Sack0 ydsPPA -0.85

Andrew Marty sacked by Leo Chenal for 0 yards to the Wisc 45

3rd & 19Pass Interception Return0 ydsPPA -0.58

Andrew Marty pass intercepted return for no gain to the Nwest 39

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.26

Braelon Allen run for 6 yds to the Nwest 33

2nd & 4Rushing Touchdown+33 ydsPPA +2.88

Braelon Allen run for 33 yds for a TD (Collin Larsh KICK)

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.11

Andrew Clair run for 4 yds to the Nwest 28

2nd & 6Pass Reception+17 ydsPPA +1.98

Ryan Hilinski pass complete to Stephon Robinson Jr. for 17 yds to the Nwest 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.68

Andrew Clair run for 2 yds to the Nwest 47

2nd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.05

Ryan Hilinski pass incomplete

3rd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.70

Ryan Hilinski pass incomplete

4th & 8Punt0 yds

Jake Genyk punt for 38 yds , Danny Davis III returns for no gain to the Wisc 15

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.44

Chase Wolf pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.11

Julius Davis run for 6 yds to the Wisc 21

3rd & 4Pass Reception+13 ydsPPA +1.61

Chase Wolf pass complete to Chimere Dike for 13 yds to the Wisc 34 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.16

Julius Davis run for 4 yds to the Wisc 38

2nd & 6Rush+6 ydsPPA +1.12

Julius Davis run for 6 yds to the Wisc 44 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rushing Touchdown+5 ydsPPA +4.37

Julius Davis run for 5 yds for a TD (Charlie Kuhbander KICK)

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.65

Jackson Acker run for 7 yds to the Wisc 35

2nd & 3Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.68

Jackson Acker run for 2 yds to the Wisc 37

3rd & 1Fumble Recovery (Opponent)+1 ydsPPA -1.11

Jackson Acker run for 1 yd to the Wisc 38 fumbled, recovered by Nwest Trevor Kent

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.08

Andrew Clair run for 4 yds to the Wisc 34

2nd & 6Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.43

Ryan Hilinski pass complete to Andrew Clair for 7 yds to the Wisc 27 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Sack0 ydsPPA -0.49

Ryan Hilinski sacked by Hunter Wohler for 0 yards to the Wisc 35

2nd & 18Pass Reception+1 ydsPPA -0.80

Ryan Hilinski pass complete to Andrew Clair for 1 yd to the Wisc 34

3rd & 17Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.91

Ryan Hilinski pass incomplete

4th & 17Pass Interception Return0 ydsPPA -0.79

Ryan Hilinski pass intercepted return for no gain to the Wisc 10

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.21

Brady Schipper run for 6 yds to the Wisc 16

2nd & 4Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.37

Brady Schipper run for 7 yds to the Wisc 23 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.54

Brady Schipper run for 1 yd to the Wisc 24

2nd & 9Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.06

Brady Schipper run for 4 yds to the Wisc 28

3rd & 5Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.06

Graham Mertz pass complete to Jack Dunn for 4 yds to the Wisc 32

4th & 1Punt0 yds

Andy Vujnovich punt for 68 yds for a touchback

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.36

Andrew Clair run for 2 yds to the Nwest 22

2nd & 8Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.06

Andrew Clair run for 5 yds to the Nwest 27

3rd & 3Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.34

Andrew Clair run for 1 yd to the Nwest 28

4th & 2Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA +0.03

Ryan Hilinski pass incomplete

1st & 10Penalty-5 yds

WISCONSIN Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Nwest 33

1st & 15Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.28

Julius Davis run for 7 yds to the Nwest 26

2nd & 8Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.31

Julius Davis run for 7 yds to the Nwest 19

3rd & 1Rush+4 ydsPPA +0.17

Julius Davis run for 4 yds to the Nwest 15 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.07

Julius Davis run for 5 yds to the Nwest 10

2nd & 5Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.12

Julius Davis run for 3 yds to the Nwest 7

Situational Analysis

Northwestern

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
23%
22 plays
0%
1 play
2nd
33%
3 plays
67%
3 plays
56%
9 plays
20%
5 plays
3rd
50%
4 plays
50%
2 plays
0%
1 play
0%
6 plays
4th
100%
1 play
100%
1 play
0%
1 play

Wisconsin

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
100%
2 plays
54%
26 plays
83%
6 plays
2nd
50%
6 plays
57%
7 plays
64%
11 plays
3rd
43%
7 plays
50%
2 plays
100%
2 plays
4th