Skip to main content
← Back to GamesOct 2, 2021Week 5
Conference Game

House Prediction

Model Margin

Nebraska by 9.1

Home Win Probability

Nebraska 74%

Market (consensus)

Nebraska -11.5

Edge: Northwestern +11.5 (2.4 pts)

fitted_v1 · Oct 2, 2021

Line Movement

No line movement to chart

Sportsbook snapshots publish once a line is posted for this game.

Team1Q2Q3Q4QFinal
NorthwesternNorthwestern
70007
NebraskaNebraska
211414756

Scoring Timeline

Q1Q2Q3Q40142842567-014-021-028-742-749-756-7
NebraskaNorthwestern

Drive Chart

Own 20Own 4050Opp 40Opp 20NEBNORNEBNORNEBNORNEBNORNEBNORNEBNORNORNEBNORNEBNORNEBNORNEBNORNEBTD375ydPUNT67ydTD678ydPUNT3-7ydTD1164ydTD782ydTD1075ydTO865ydDOWNS947ydDOWNS816ydTD559ydEND46ydPUNT37ydTD183ydDOWNS1033ydTD257ydPUNT517ydPUNT32ydPUNT731ydTD1364ydPUNT518ydEND1174yd

Box Score

Team statistics comparing Northwestern and Nebraska
StatisticNorthwesternNebraska
Passing25-4015-21
Pass Yards256230
Rush Yards37427
Total Yards293657
Turnovers10
3rd Down5-145-9
Penalties6-534-19
Possession25:5534:05

Player Leaders

Player Leaders

Northwestern
passing
Ryan Hilinski
25/39, 256 YDS, 1 TD
rushing
Evan Hull
7 CAR, 31 YDS
receiving
Stephon Robinson
8 REC, 116 YDS, 1 TD
defense
Nebraska
passing
Adrian Martinez
11/17, 202 YDS, 1 TD
rushing
Jaquez Yant
13 CAR, 127 YDS
receiving
Samori Toure
2 REC, 108 YDS, 1 TD
defense

Play-by-Play

1st & 10Pass Reception+70 ydsPPA +4.19

Adrian Martinez pass complete to Samori Toure for 70 yds to the Nwest 5 for a 1ST down

1st & 5Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.02

Rahmir Johnson run for 4 yds to the Nwest 1

2nd & 1Rushing Touchdown+1 ydsPPA +1.90

Adrian Martinez run for 1 yd for a TD (Connor Culp KICK)

1st & 10Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.60

Ryan Hilinski pass complete to Evan Hull for 7 yds to the Nwest 32

2nd & 3Penalty-5 yds

PENALTY NOR False Start (Gerak,Sam) 5 yards from NOR32 to NOR27. NO PLAY.

2nd & 8Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.21

Ryan Hilinski pass complete to Malik Washington for 3 yds to the Nwest 30

3rd & 5Pass Reception+13 ydsPPA +2.27

Ryan Hilinski pass complete to Stephon Robinson Jr. for 13 yds to the Nwest 43 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+2 ydsPPA -0.69

Ryan Hilinski pass complete to Bryce Kirtz for 2 yds to the Nwest 41

2nd & 12Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.69

Ryan Hilinski pass incomplete to Marshall Lang

3rd & 12Sack-9 ydsPPA -0.62

Ryan Hilinski sacked by JoJo Domann for a loss of 9 yards to the Nwest 32

4th & 21Punt0 yds

Derek Adams punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Oliver Martin at the Neb 22

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.09

Jaquez Yant run for 5 yds to the Neb 27

2nd & 5Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.66

Adrian Martinez pass complete to Oliver Martin for 5 yds to the Neb 32 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.93

Adrian Martinez pass incomplete to Samori Toure

2nd & 10Rush+64 ydsPPA +4.76

Jaquez Yant run for 64 yds to the Nwest 4 for a 1ST down

1st & 4Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.21

Rahmir Johnson run for 3 yds to the Nwest 1

2nd & 1Rushing Touchdown+1 ydsPPA +1.90

Adrian Martinez run for 1 yd for a TD (Connor Culp KICK)

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.45

Evan Hull run for 2 yds to the Nwest 27

2nd & 8Penalty-13 yds

Hull,Evan rush for 1 yard gain to the NOR28 (Nelson,Garrett; Newsome,Quinton) PENALTY NOR Tripping (Schmidt,Charlie) 13 yards from NOR27 to NOR14. NO PLAY.

2nd & 21Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.01

Evan Hull run for 4 yds to the Nwest 18

3rd & 17Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.05

Ryan Hilinski pass incomplete to Stephon Robinson Jr.

4th & 17Punt0 yds

Derek Adams punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Oliver Martin at the Neb 36

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.85

Omar Manning run for 1 yd to the Neb 37

2nd & 9Pass Reception+13 ydsPPA +2.16

Adrian Martinez pass complete to Oliver Martin for 13 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.84

Rahmir Johnson run for 8 yds to the Nwest 42

2nd & 2Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.13

Adrian Martinez pass incomplete to Omar Manning

3rd & 2Rush+3 ydsPPA +0.99

Adrian Martinez run for 3 yds to the Nwest 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.09

Adrian Martinez pass complete to Travis Vokolek for 5 yds to the Nwest 34

2nd & 5Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.26

Rahmir Johnson run for 3 yds to the Nwest 31

3rd & 2Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.62

Jaquez Yant run for 6 yds to the Nwest 25 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.45

Adrian Martinez pass incomplete to Samori Toure

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.61

Adrian Martinez pass incomplete to Zavier Betts

3rd & 10Rushing Touchdown+25 ydsPPA +3.76

Adrian Martinez run for 25 yds for a TD (Connor Culp KICK)

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.51

Ryan Hilinski pass incomplete to Marshall Lang

2nd & 10Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +0.51

Ryan Hilinski pass complete to Stephon Robinson Jr. for 9 yds to the Nwest 27

3rd & 1Rush+2 ydsPPA +0.71

Andrew Clair run for 2 yds to the Nwest 29 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +0.92

Ryan Hilinski pass complete to Andrew Clair for 10 yds to the Nwest 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.90

Andrew Clair run for 1 yd to the Nwest 40

2nd & 9Pass Reception+32 ydsPPA +2.99

Ryan Hilinski pass complete to Stephon Robinson Jr. for 32 yds to the Neb 28 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Passing Touchdown+28 ydsPPA +2.76

Ryan Hilinski pass complete to Stephon Robinson Jr. for 28 yds for a TD (Charlie Kuhbander KICK)

1st & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +1.25

Jaquez Yant run for 9 yds to the Neb 34

2nd & 1Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.07

Jaquez Yant run for 6 yds to the Neb 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.40

Adrian Martinez pass complete to Zavier Betts for 6 yds to the Neb 46

2nd & 4Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.81

Jaquez Yant run for 8 yds to the Nwest 46 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+28 ydsPPA +0.95

Adrian Martinez pass complete to Omar Manning for 28 yds to the Nwest 18 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.45

Adrian Martinez run for 8 yds to the Nwest 10

2nd & 2Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.40

Rahmir Johnson run for 1 yd to the Nwest 9

3rd & 1Rush+2 ydsPPA +0.34

Adrian Martinez run for 2 yds to the Nwest 7 for a 1ST down

1st & 7Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.24

Rahmir Johnson run for 2 yds to the Nwest 5

2nd & 5Rushing Touchdown+5 ydsPPA +2.44

Rahmir Johnson run for 5 yds for a TD (Connor Culp KICK)

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.60

Evan Hull run for 7 yds to the Nwest 32

2nd & 3Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.99

Ryan Hilinski pass incomplete to Bryce Kirtz

3rd & 3Rush+6 ydsPPA +1.51

Evan Hull run for 6 yds to the Nwest 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+43 ydsPPA +2.35

Ryan Hilinski pass complete to Malik Washington for 43 yds to the Neb 19 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.07

Evan Hull run for 5 yds to the Neb 14

2nd & 5Pass Reception+13 ydsPPA +1.59

Ryan Hilinski pass complete to Stephon Robinson Jr. for 13 yds to the Neb 1 for a 1ST down

1st & 1Rush0 ydsPPA -0.96

Ryan Hilinski run for no gain to the Neb 1

2nd & 1Fumble Recovery (Opponent)+9 ydsPPA -5.10

Ryan Hilinski run for 9 yds to the Neb 10 Ryan Hilinski fumbled, forced by JoJo Domann, recovered by Neb Deontre Thomas

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.35

Adrian Martinez pass incomplete to Alante Brown

2nd & 10Rush+17 ydsPPA +1.21

Adrian Martinez run for 17 yds to the Neb 27 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.95

Rahmir Johnson run for 8 yds to the Neb 35

2nd & 2Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.32

Rahmir Johnson run for 6 yds to the Neb 41 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+11 ydsPPA +0.97

Jaquez Yant run for 11 yds to the Nwest 48 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.56

Adrian Martinez run for 7 yds to the Neb 45

2nd & 17Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.41

Adrian Martinez pass complete to Zavier Betts for 7 yds to the Nwest 48

3rd & 10Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.05

Adrian Martinez pass complete to Rahmir Johnson for 5 yds to the Nwest 43

4th & 5Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.24

Adrian Martinez pass incomplete to Brody Belt

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.43

Andrew Clair run for 3 yds to the Nwest 46

2nd & 7Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.10

Ryan Hilinski pass complete to Bryce Kirtz for 5 yds to the Neb 49

3rd & 2Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.91

Raymond Niro III run for 1 yd to the Neb 48

4th & 1Rush+2 ydsPPA +2.16

Andrew Clair run for 2 yds to the Neb 46 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty-10 yds

NORTHWESTERN Penalty, Intentional Grounding (-10 Yards) to the Nwest 44

2nd & 20Pass Reception0 ydsPPA -0.46

Ryan Hilinski pass complete to Evan Hull for no gain to the Nwest 44

3rd & 20Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +0.67

Ryan Hilinski pass complete to Marshall Lang for 11 yds to the Neb 45

4th & 9Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.68

Ryan Hilinski pass complete to Evan Hull for 4 yds to the Neb 41

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.68

Rahmir Johnson run for 2 yds to the Neb 43

2nd & 8Pass Reception+18 ydsPPA +2.20

Adrian Martinez pass complete to Levi Falck for 18 yds to the Nwest 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.44

Adrian Martinez pass complete to Levi Falck for 7 yds to the Nwest 32

2nd & 3Rush+23 ydsPPA +0.28

Rahmir Johnson run for 23 yds to the Nwest 9 for a 1ST down

1st & 9Rushing Touchdown+9 ydsPPA +2.42

Rahmir Johnson run for 9 yds for a TD (Connor Culp KICK)

1st & 10Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.60

Ryan Hilinski pass complete to Stephon Robinson Jr. for 7 yds to the Nwest 32

2nd & 3Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.52

Ryan Hilinski pass complete to Trey Pugh for 6 yds to the Nwest 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.09

Ryan Hilinski pass incomplete to Trey Pugh

2nd & 10Fumble Recovery (Own)-7 ydsPPA -1.16

Ryan Hilinski sacked by Caleb Tannor for a loss of 7 yards to the Nwest 31 Ryan Hilinski fumbled, recovered by Nwest Ryan Hilinski , return for 0 yards

0th & 10End of Half0 yds

End of 2nd Quarter

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.70

Ryan Hilinski pass incomplete to Stephon Robinson Jr.

2nd & 10Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.31

Ryan Hilinski pass complete to Bryce Kirtz for 7 yds to the Nwest 32

3rd & 3Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.51

Ryan Hilinski pass incomplete to Bryce Kirtz

4th & 3Punt0 yds

Derek Adams punt for 51 yds, fair catch by Oliver Martin at the Neb 17

1st & 10Rushing Touchdown+83 ydsPPA +6.54

Zavier Betts run for 83 yds for a TD (Connor Culp KICK)

1st & 10Penalty+5 yds

Hilinski,Ryan pass incomplete to Gill,Jacob PENALTY NEB Pass Interference (Henrich,Nick) 5 yards from NOR25 to NOR30, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.

1st & 10Sack-12 ydsPPA -1.61

Ryan Hilinski sacked by Garrett Nelson for a loss of 12 yards to the Nwest 18

2nd & 22Rush+11 ydsPPA +0.22

Andrew Clair run for 11 yds to the Nwest 29

3rd & 11Fumble Recovery (Own)+18 ydsPPA +2.98

Ryan Hilinski pass complete to Malik Washington for 18 yds Malik Washington fumbled, forced by JoJo Domann, recovered by Nwest for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty-5 yds

PENALTY NOR False Start (Washington,Malik) 5 yards from NOR47 to NOR42. NO PLAY.

1st & 15Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.16

Ryan Hilinski pass complete to Stephon Robinson Jr. for 4 yds to the Nwest 46

2nd & 11Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.89

Ryan Hilinski pass incomplete to Stephon Robinson Jr.

3rd & 11Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +3.07

Ryan Hilinski pass complete to Andrew Clair for 12 yds to the Neb 42 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception0 ydsPPA -0.91

Ryan Hilinski pass complete to Raymond Niro III for no gain to the Neb 42

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.05

Ryan Hilinski pass incomplete to Bryce Kirtz

3rd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.93

Ryan Hilinski pass incomplete to Jacob Gill

4th & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.81

Ryan Hilinski pass incomplete to Stephon Robinson Jr.

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.17

Jaquez Yant run for 4 yds to the Neb 47

2nd & 6Penalty+15 yds

Martinez,Adrian pass incomplete to Betts,Zavier PENALTY NOR Pass Interference (Hampton, Jr.,A.J.) 15 yards from NEB47 to NOR38, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.

1st & 10Passing Touchdown+38 ydsPPA +3.09

Adrian Martinez pass complete to Samori Toure for 38 yds for a TD (Connor Culp KICK)

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.11

Evan Hull run for 4 yds to the Nwest 29

2nd & 6Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +1.34

Ryan Hilinski pass complete to Stephon Robinson Jr. for 10 yds to the Nwest 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.11

Ryan Hilinski pass incomplete to Stephon Robinson Jr.

2nd & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.31

Evan Hull run for 3 yds to the Nwest 42

3rd & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.59

Ryan Hilinski pass incomplete to Evan Hull

4th & 7Punt0 yds

Derek Adams punt for 50 yds, fair catch by Oliver Martin at the Neb 8

1st & 10Penalty-4 yds

PENALTY NEB False Start (Benhart,Bryce) 4 yards from NEB08 to NEB04. NO PLAY.

1st & 14Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.06

Jaquez Yant run for 3 yds to the Neb 7

2nd & 11Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.02

Jaquez Yant run for 5 yds to the Neb 12

3rd & 6Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.08

Jaquez Yant run for 2 yds to the Neb 10

4th & 8Punt0 yds

William Przystup punt for 84 yds

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.06

Anthony Tyus III run for 5 yds to the Nwest 11

2nd & 5Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.30

Anthony Tyus III run for 6 yds to the Nwest 17 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.73

Ryan Hilinski pass complete to Genson Hooper Price for 8 yds to the Nwest 25

2nd & 2Rush+4 ydsPPA +0.03

Andrew Clair run for 4 yds to the Nwest 29 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.34

Ryan Hilinski pass complete to Jacob Gill for 3 yds to the Nwest 32

2nd & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.68

Ryan Hilinski pass incomplete to Jordan Mosely

3rd & 7Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.04

Ryan Hilinski pass complete to Charlie Mangieri for 5 yds to the Nwest 37

4th & 2Punt0 yds

Jake Genyk punt for 28 yds, fair catch by Oliver Martin at the Neb 35

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.16

Jaquez Yant run for 4 yds to the Neb 40

2nd & 6Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.62

Logan Smothers run for 2 yds to the Neb 38

3rd & 8Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +2.67

Logan Smothers pass complete to Brody Belt for 11 yds to the Neb 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +1.12

Logan Smothers run for 9 yds to the Nwest 42

2nd & 1Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.29

Jaquez Yant run for 4 yds to the Nwest 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.25

Markese Stepp run for 6 yds to the Nwest 32

2nd & 4Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.25

Markese Stepp run for 3 yds to the Nwest 29

3rd & 1Penalty-5 yds

PENALTY NEB False Start (Boerkircher,Nate) 5 yards from NOR29 to NOR34. NO PLAY.

3rd & 6Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.58

Logan Smothers run for 2 yds to the Nwest 32

4th & 4Rush+11 ydsPPA +1.95

Logan Smothers run for 11 yds to the Nwest 21 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.12

Sevion Morrison run for 3 yds to the Nwest 18

2nd & 7Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.24

Sevion Morrison run for 8 yds to the Nwest 10 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.18

Sevion Morrison run for 6 yds to the Nwest 4

2nd & 4Rushing Touchdown+4 ydsPPA +2.33

Sevion Morrison run for 4 yds for a TD (Connor Culp KICK)

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.37

Anthony Tyus III run for 6 yds to the Nwest 36

2nd & 4Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.66

Anthony Tyus III run for 5 yds to the Nwest 41 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.92

Anthony Tyus III run for 1 yd to the Nwest 40

2nd & 11Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.74

Anthony Tyus III run for 8 yds to the Nwest 48

3rd & 3Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.99

Carl Richardson pass incomplete to Genson Hooper Price

4th & 3Punt0 yds

Jake Genyk punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Oliver Martin at the Neb 12

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.25

Markese Stepp run for 2 yds to the Neb 14

2nd & 8Rush+13 ydsPPA +1.05

Matt Masker run for 13 yds to the Neb 27 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.10

Matt Masker pass complete to Wyatt Liewer for 5 yds to the Neb 32

2nd & 5Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.78

Matt Masker pass complete to Will Nixon for 5 yds to the Neb 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +1.38

Markese Stepp run for 9 yds to the Neb 46

2nd & 1Rush+9 ydsPPA +0.20

Markese Stepp run for 9 yds to the Nwest 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty+15 yds

Masker,Matt rush for 0 yards to the NOR45 (McLaughlin,Sean) PENALTY NOR Face Mask (McLaughlin,Sean) 15 yards from NOR45 to NOR30, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.

1st & 10Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.35

Matt Masker pass complete to Nate Boerkircher for 7 yds to the Nwest 23

2nd & 3Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.14

Zach Weinmaster run for 4 yds to the Nwest 19 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.07

Sevion Morrison run for 5 yds to the Nwest 14

2nd & 5Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.13

Cooper Jewett run for 3 yds to the Nwest 11

3rd & 2Rush-3 ydsPPA -0.72

run for a loss of 3 yards to the Nwest 14

3rd & 2Rush-3 ydsPPA -0.72

run for a loss of 3 yards to the Nwest 14

Situational Analysis

Northwestern

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
0%
1 play
43%
23 plays
0%
1 play
2nd
50%
4 plays
100%
4 plays
44%
9 plays
33%
6 plays
3rd
40%
5 plays
100%
1 play
33%
3 plays
60%
5 plays
4th
100%
1 play
0%
2 plays

Nebraska

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
0%
2 plays
69%
32 plays
0%
1 play
2nd
60%
10 plays
56%
9 plays
86%
7 plays
100%
2 plays
3rd
60%
5 plays
0%
2 plays
100%
3 plays
4th
50%
2 plays