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← Back to GamesNov 27, 2021Week 13
Conference Game

House Prediction

Model Margin

Wisconsin by 4.8

Home Win Probability

Minnesota 34%

Market (consensus)

Minnesota +7

Edge: Minnesota +7 (2.2 pts)

fitted_v1 · Nov 27, 2021

Line Movement

No line movement to chart

Sportsbook snapshots publish once a line is posted for this game.

Team1Q2Q3Q4QFinal
WisconsinWisconsin
0103013
MinnesotaMinnesota
3314323

Scoring Timeline

Q1Q2Q3Q4014283-03-36-1013-1320-1323-13
MinnesotaWisconsin

Drive Chart

Own 20Own 4050Opp 40Opp 20MINWISMINMINWISMINWISMINWISMINWISMINWISMINWISMINWISMINWISMINFG1465ydFG1585ydTD10ydFG853ydPUNT940ydPUNT626ydPUNT35ydEND1-1ydTO33ydTD228ydFG1166ydTD774ydPUNT38ydPUNT32ydMISS738ydFG952ydDOWNS821ydPUNT3-2ydDOWNS49ydEND2-8yd

Box Score

Team statistics comparing Wisconsin and Minnesota
StatisticWisconsinMinnesota
Passing21-3811-16
Pass Yards171199
Rush Yards6275
Total Yards233274
Turnovers11
3rd Down4-145-11
Penalties8-737-82
Possession29:5030:10

Player Leaders

Player Leaders

Wisconsin
passing
Graham Mertz
21/38, 171 YDS, 1 INT
rushing
Braelon Allen
17 CAR, 47 YDS
receiving
Danny Davis III
5 REC, 60 YDS
defense
Leo Chenal
1.5 TFL
Minnesota
passing
Tanner Morgan
11/16, 199 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
rushing
Ky Thomas
18 CAR, 55 YDS, 1 TD
receiving
Brevyn Spann-Ford
3 REC, 62 YDS
defense

Play-by-Play

1st & 10Penalty+15 yds

WISCONSIN Penalty, Targeting on WILDER, Collin enforced (Collin Wilder) to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down

3rd & 1Rush+2 ydsPPA +0.14

Ky Thomas run for 2 yds to the Wisc 16 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.33

Mar'Keise Irving run for no gain to the Wisc 16

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.38

Tanner Morgan pass incomplete

3rd & 10Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.13

Tanner Morgan pass complete to Brevyn Spann-Ford for 6 yds to the Wisc 10

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.14

Ky Thomas run for 4 yds to the Wisc 46

2nd & 6Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.65

Tanner Morgan run for 2 yds to the Wisc 44

3rd & 4Rush+5 ydsPPA +1.49

Tanner Morgan run for 5 yds to the Wisc 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.26

Tanner Morgan pass complete to Mar'Keise Irving for 3 yds to the Wisc 36

2nd & 7Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.69

Ky Thomas run for 1 yd to the Wisc 35

3rd & 6Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +1.35

Tanner Morgan pass complete to Mike Brown-Stephens for 8 yds to the Wisc 27 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.37

Ky Thomas run for 1 yd to the Wisc 26

2nd & 9Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.41

Tanner Morgan pass complete to Daniel Jackson for 8 yds to the Wisc 18

4th & 4Field Goal Good+28 yds

Matthew Trickett 28 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Pass Reception+17 ydsPPA +0.77

Graham Mertz pass complete to Danny Davis III for 17 yds to the Wisc 25 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.30

Braelon Allen run for 3 yds to the Wisc 28

2nd & 7Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.27

Graham Mertz pass complete to Danny Davis III for 6 yds to the Wisc 34

3rd & 1Rush+1 ydsPPA +0.86

Braelon Allen run for 1 yd to the Wisc 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty-10 yds

ALLEN, Braelon rush up the middle for a gain of 17 yards to the UMN48 (HOWDEN, Jordan). PENALTY WIS Holding on CHENAL, John enforced 10 yards from the WIS35 to the WIS25. NO PLAY (replay the down).

1st & 20Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.06

Graham Mertz pass complete to Kendric Pryor for 4 yds to the Wisc 29

2nd & 16Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +0.77

Graham Mertz pass complete to Kendric Pryor for 11 yds to the Wisc 40

3rd & 5Penalty+15 yds

MERTZ, Graham pass to the left incomplete intended for PRYOR, Kendric thrown to the WIS50. PENALTY UMN Personal Foul on MAFE, Boye enforced 15 yards from the WIS40 to the UMN45 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

1st & 10Pass Reception+2 ydsPPA -0.55

Graham Mertz pass complete to Braelon Allen for 2 yds to the Minn 43

2nd & 8Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.53

Braelon Allen run for 7 yds to the Minn 36

3rd & 1Rush+2 ydsPPA +0.56

Braelon Allen run for 2 yds to the Minn 34 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.21

Braelon Allen run for 3 yds to the Minn 31

2nd & 7Pass Reception+17 ydsPPA +0.60

Graham Mertz pass complete to Chimere Dike for 17 yds to the Minn 14 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.25

Braelon Allen run for 1 yd to the Minn 13

2nd & 9Penalty+6 yds

MERTZ, Graham sacked for a loss of 6 yards at the UMN19 (MAFE, Boye). PENALTY UMN Holding on DURR, Coney enforced half the distance from the goal, 7 yards from the UMN13 to the UMN6 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

2nd & 2Penalty-5 yds

WISCONSIN Penalty, Illegal Formation (TEAM) to the Minn 11

2nd & 7Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.02

Graham Mertz pass complete to Braelon Allen for 4 yds to the Minn 7

3rd & 3Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.34

Graham Mertz pass incomplete

4th & 3Field Goal Good+25 yds

Collin Larsh 25 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Interception Return Touchdown+26 ydsPPA -7.79

Scott Nelson 26 Yd Interception Return (Collin Larsh Kick)

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.81

Ky Thomas run for 1 yd to the Minn 35

2nd & 9Pass Reception+36 ydsPPA +3.36

Tanner Morgan pass complete to Mar'Keise Irving for 36 yds to the Wisc 29 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +0.68

Mar'Keise Irving run for 9 yds to the Wisc 20

2nd & 1Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.46

Mar'Keise Irving run for 4 yds to the Wisc 16 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.18

Ky Thomas run for 2 yds to the Wisc 14

2nd & 8Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.26

Ky Thomas run for 1 yd to the Wisc 13

3rd & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.45

Tanner Morgan pass incomplete

4th & 7Field Goal Good+31 yds

Matthew Trickett 31 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Penalty-5 yds

WISCONSIN Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Wisc 20

1st & 15Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.33

Graham Mertz pass incomplete

2nd & 15Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.07

Graham Mertz pass complete to Braelon Allen for 3 yds to the Wisc 23

3rd & 12Penalty+15 yds

MERTZ, Graham pass up the middle incomplete intended for PRYOR, Kendric thrown to the WIS38. PENALTY UMN Pass Interference on WALLEY, Justin enforced 15 yards to the WIS38 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

1st & 10Rush+14 ydsPPA +1.27

Braelon Allen run for 14 yds to the Minn 48 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.84

Braelon Allen run for 1 yd to the Minn 47

2nd & 9Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.32

Graham Mertz pass complete to Kendric Pryor for 6 yds to the Minn 41

3rd & 3Rush+5 ydsPPA +1.19

Brady Schipper run for 5 yds to the Minn 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.55

Braelon Allen run for 1 yd to the Minn 35

2nd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.90

Graham Mertz pass incomplete

3rd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.03

Graham Mertz pass incomplete

4th & 9Punt0 yds

Conor Schlichting punt for 29 yds

1st & 10Rush+12 ydsPPA +0.41

Ky Thomas run for 12 yds to the Minn 18 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.51

Tanner Morgan pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Reception+18 ydsPPA +1.85

Tanner Morgan pass complete to Daniel Jackson for 18 yds to the Minn 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.64

Ky Thomas run for 2 yds to the Minn 38

2nd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.81

Tanner Morgan pass incomplete

3rd & 8Sack0 ydsPPA -0.44

Tanner Morgan sacked by Keeanu Benton for 0 yards to the Minn 32

4th & 14Punt0 yds

Mark Crawford punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Dean Engram at the Wisc 23

1st & 10Rush-4 ydsPPA -0.92

Braelon Allen run for a loss of 4 yards to the Wisc 19

3rd & 10Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.02

Graham Mertz pass complete to Jake Ferguson for 5 yds to the Wisc 28

4th & 5Punt0 yds

Andy Vujnovich punt for 55 yds , returns for no gain to the Minn 17

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.55

Mar'Keise Irving run for a loss of 1 yard to the Minn 16

0th & 10End of Half0 yds

End of 2nd Quarter

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.51

Graham Mertz pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.10

Braelon Allen run for 3 yds to the Wisc 21

3rd & 7Pass Interception Return0 ydsPPA +0.10

Graham Mertz pass intercepted return for no gain to the Wisc 28

1st & 10Pass Reception+26 ydsPPA +1.55

Tanner Morgan pass complete to Brevyn Spann-Ford for 26 yds to the Wisc 2 for a 1ST down

1st & 2Rushing Touchdown+2 ydsPPA +1.21

Ky Thomas run for 2 yds for a TD (Matthew Trickett KICK)

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.59

Danny Davis III run for 1 yd to the Wisc 26

2nd & 9Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.18

Braelon Allen run for 3 yds to the Wisc 29

3rd & 6Pass Reception+16 ydsPPA +2.57

Graham Mertz pass complete to Brady Schipper for 16 yds to the Wisc 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+14 ydsPPA +1.04

Graham Mertz pass complete to Danny Davis III for 14 yds to the Minn 41 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.28

Graham Mertz pass complete to Braelon Allen for 3 yds to the Minn 38

2nd & 7Rush-2 ydsPPA -1.41

Braelon Allen run for a loss of 2 yards to the Minn 40

3rd & 9Penalty+15 yds

MERTZ, Graham pass to the right incomplete intended for PRYOR, Kendric thrown to the UMN10. PENALTY UMN Pass Interference on HOWARD, Phillip enforced 15 yards to the UMN25 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

1st & 10Rush+11 ydsPPA +0.15

Braelon Allen run for 11 yds to the Minn 14 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.07

Braelon Allen run for 5 yds to the Minn 9

2nd & 5Rush-2 ydsPPA -0.49

Braelon Allen run for a loss of 2 yards to the Minn 11

3rd & 7Pass Reception+2 ydsPPA -0.21

Graham Mertz pass complete to Jake Ferguson for 2 yds to the Minn 9

4th & 5Field Goal Good+28 yds

Collin Larsh 28 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +1.28

Ky Thomas run for 9 yds to the Minn 35

2nd & 1Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.22

Ky Thomas run for 3 yds to the Minn 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.17

Ky Thomas run for 4 yds to the Minn 42

2nd & 6Sack0 ydsPPA -1.05

Tanner Morgan sacked by Keeanu Benton for 0 yards to the Minn 38

3rd & 10Pass Reception+27 ydsPPA +3.76

Tanner Morgan pass complete to Dylan Wright for 27 yds to the Wisc 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.22

Mar'Keise Irving run for 3 yds to the Wisc 32

2nd & 7Penalty+15 yds

MORGAN, Tanner pass to the left incomplete intended for WRIGHT, Dylan thrown to the WIS7. PENALTY WIS Pass Interference on WILLIAMS, Caesar enforced 15 yards to the WIS17 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

1st & 10Penalty-10 yds

IRVING, Mar'Keise rush to the right for a gain of 2 yards to the WIS15 (TORCHIO, John). PENALTY UMN Holding on FAALELE, Daniel enforced 10 yards from the WIS17 to the WIS27 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

1st & 20Passing Touchdown+27 ydsPPA +3.38

Tanner Morgan pass complete to Chris Autman-Bell for 27 yds for a TD (Matthew Trickett KICK)

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.70

Braelon Allen run for no gain to the Wisc 25

2nd & 10Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.48

Graham Mertz pass complete to Kendric Pryor for 8 yds to the Wisc 33

3rd & 2Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.60

Graham Mertz pass incomplete

4th & 2Punt0 yds

Andy Vujnovich punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Brock Annexstad at the Minn 26

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.61

Ky Thomas run for 1 yd to the Minn 27

2nd & 9Sack0 ydsPPA -0.43

Tanner Morgan sacked by Leo Chenal and Jack Sanborn for 0 yards to the Minn 19

3rd & 17Rush+9 ydsPPA +0.10

Mar'Keise Irving run for 9 yds to the Minn 28

4th & 8Punt0 yds

Mark Crawford punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Dean Engram at the Wisc 32

1st & 10Penalty+15 yds

MERTZ, Graham pass to the left incomplete intended for PRYOR, Kendric thrown to the UMN35. PENALTY UMN Pass Interference on WALLEY, Justin enforced 15 yards to the WIS47 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY (replay the down).

1st & 10Pass Reception+13 ydsPPA +0.91

Graham Mertz pass complete to Danny Davis III for 13 yds to the Minn 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.85

Graham Mertz pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +1.22

Graham Mertz pass complete to Danny Davis III for 10 yds to the Minn 30 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.56

Graham Mertz pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.76

Graham Mertz pass incomplete

3rd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.99

Graham Mertz pass incomplete

4th & 10Field Goal Missed+48 yds

Collin Larsh 48 yd FG MISSED

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.55

Mar'Keise Irving run for 2 yds to the Minn 32

2nd & 8Pass Reception+30 ydsPPA +3.15

Tanner Morgan pass complete to Brevyn Spann-Ford for 30 yds to the Wisc 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.42

Ky Thomas run for 2 yds to the Wisc 36

2nd & 8Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.43

Mar'Keise Irving run for 7 yds to the Wisc 29

3rd & 1Rush+3 ydsPPA +0.37

Ky Thomas run for 3 yds to the Wisc 26 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.15

Mar'Keise Irving run for 3 yds to the Wisc 23

2nd & 7Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.28

Mar'Keise Irving run for 2 yds to the Wisc 21

3rd & 5Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.20

Ky Thomas run for 3 yds to the Wisc 18

4th & 2Field Goal Good+36 yds

Matthew Trickett 36 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.38

Graham Mertz pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.03

Graham Mertz run for 5 yds to the Wisc 17

3rd & 5Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.03

Graham Mertz run for 4 yds to the Wisc 21

4th & 1Penalty-5 yds

WISCONSIN Penalty, False Start (Leo Chenal) to the Wisc 16

4th & 6Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +1.36

Graham Mertz pass complete to Jake Ferguson for 11 yds to the Wisc 27 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.77

Graham Mertz pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.39

Graham Mertz pass incomplete

3rd & 10Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.09

Graham Mertz pass complete to Brady Schipper for 6 yds to the Wisc 33

4th & 4Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA +0.00

Graham Mertz pass incomplete

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.34

Ky Thomas run for 2 yds to the Wisc 31

2nd & 8Rush0 ydsPPA -0.76

Mar'Keise Irving run for no gain to the Wisc 31

3rd & 8Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.77

Mar'Keise Irving run for 1 yd to the Wisc 30

4th & 7Penalty-5 yds

MINNESOTA Penalty, False Start (Tyler Nubin) to the Wisc 35

4th & 12Punt0 yds

Mark Crawford punt for 28 yds, downed at the Wisc 7

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.31

Graham Mertz pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +0.33

Graham Mertz pass complete to Jake Ferguson for 9 yds to the Wisc 16

3rd & 1Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.32

Graham Mertz pass incomplete

4th & 1Rush+2 ydsPPA +0.68

Graham Mertz run for no gain to the Wisc 16 run for 2 yds to the Wisc 16

No play data available

Situational Analysis

Wisconsin

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
27%
22 plays
0%
2 plays
2nd
0%
1 play
53%
15 plays
50%
2 plays
3rd
50%
6 plays
50%
2 plays
50%
6 plays
4th
100%
1 play
100%
2 plays

Minnesota

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
100%
1 play
19%
21 plays
100%
1 play
2nd
0%
2 plays
0%
2 plays
42%
12 plays
3rd
100%
2 plays
67%
3 plays
40%
5 plays
100%
1 play
4th