Skip to main content
← Back to GamesNov 20, 2021Week 12
Conference Game

House Prediction

Model Margin

Ohio State by 17.5

Home Win Probability

Ohio State 88%

Market (consensus)

Ohio State -19.5

Edge: Michigan State +19.5 (2.0 pts)

fitted_v1 · Nov 20, 2021

Line Movement

No line movement to chart

Sportsbook snapshots publish once a line is posted for this game.

Team1Q2Q3Q4QFinal
Michigan StateMichigan State
00077
Ohio StateOhio State
21280756

Scoring Timeline

Q1Q2Q3Q40142842567-014-028-042-049-049-756-7
Ohio StateMichigan State

Drive Chart

Own 20Own 4050Opp 40Opp 20OSMSOSMSOSMSOSMSOSMSOSMSOSMSOSMSOSMSOSMSOSMSOSMSOSTD1286ydPUNT515ydTD488ydMISS1355ydTD471ydTO519ydTD644ydPUNT36ydTD670ydPUNT3-10ydTD657ydPUNT35ydTD1085ydPUNT616ydEND1-1ydPUNT438ydMISS1167ydPUNT30ydTO617ydTD851ydPUNT37ydPUNT417ydTD1675ydPUNT32ydEND24yd

Box Score

Team statistics comparing Michigan State and Ohio State
StatisticMichigan StateOhio State
Passing16-3836-43
Pass Yards158449
Rush Yards66206
Total Yards224655
Turnovers11
3rd Down5-166-10
Penalties3-301-5
Possession22:0237:58

Player Leaders

Player Leaders

Michigan State
passing
Payton Thorne
14/36, 158 YDS, 1 TD
rushing
Elijah Collins
3 CAR, 29 YDS
receiving
Tre Mosley
1 REC, 46 YDS
defense
Ohio State
passing
C.J. Stroud
32/35, 432 YDS, 6 TD
rushing
Master Teague
21 CAR, 95 YDS, 1 TD
receiving
Chris Olave
7 REC, 140 YDS, 2 TD
defense
Tommy Eichenberg
0.5 TFL, 1 PD

Play-by-Play

1st & 10Penalty-5 yds

OHIO ST Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the OhSt 9

1st & 15Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.09

C.J. Stroud pass complete to Chris Olave for 6 yds to the OhSt 15

2nd & 9Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +0.94

C.J. Stroud pass complete to Chris Olave for 10 yds to the OhSt 25 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.60

C.J. Stroud pass complete to Garrett Wilson for 7 yds to the OhSt 32

2nd & 3Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.42

TreVeyon Henderson run for 5 yds to the OhSt 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.07

C.J. Stroud pass incomplete to Garrett Wilson

2nd & 10Rush+10 ydsPPA +2.02

TreVeyon Henderson run for 10 yds to the OhSt 47 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +1.18

C.J. Stroud pass complete to Garrett Wilson for 9 yds to the MchSt 44

2nd & 1Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.32

C.J. Stroud pass complete to Garrett Wilson for 3 yds to the MchSt 41 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.10

C.J. Stroud pass complete to Jaxon Smith-Njigba for 4 yds to the MchSt 37

2nd & 6Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +0.64

C.J. Stroud pass complete to Garrett Wilson for 12 yds to the MchSt 25 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+2 ydsPPA -0.24

C.J. Stroud pass complete to Miyan Williams for 2 yds to the MchSt 23

2nd & 8Passing Touchdown+23 ydsPPA +2.94

C.J. Stroud pass complete to Chris Olave for 23 yds for a TD, (Noah Ruggles KICK)

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.63

Kenneth Walker III run for a loss of 1 yard to the MchSt 19

2nd & 11Pass Reception+16 ydsPPA +1.78

Payton Thorne pass complete to Tyler Hunt for 16 yds to the MchSt 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.01

Payton Thorne pass incomplete to Ricky White, broken up by Zach Harrison

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.60

Payton Thorne pass incomplete to Kenneth Walker III

3rd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.30

Payton Thorne pass incomplete to Tre Mosley

4th & 10Punt+3 yds

Bryce Baringer punt for 56 yds , Jaxon Smith-Njigba returns for 3 yds to the OhSt 12

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.16

TreVeyon Henderson run for 3 yds to the OhSt 15

2nd & 7Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.06

C.J. Stroud pass complete to TreVeyon Henderson for 5 yds to the OhSt 20

3rd & 2Rush+3 ydsPPA +0.62

TreVeyon Henderson run for 3 yds to the OhSt 23 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Passing Touchdown+77 ydsPPA +6.21

C.J. Stroud pass complete to Garrett Wilson for 77 yds for a TD, (Noah Ruggles KICK)

1st & 10Rush-4 ydsPPA -0.65

Payton Thorne run for a loss of 4 yards to the MchSt 12

2nd & 14Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.10

Payton Thorne pass incomplete to Jayden Reed

3rd & 14Pass Reception+14 ydsPPA +1.33

Payton Thorne pass complete to Tyler Hunt for 14 yds to the MchSt 26 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+10 ydsPPA +0.86

Kenneth Walker III run for 10 yds to the MchSt 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+1 ydsPPA -0.85

Payton Thorne pass complete to Connor Heyward for 1 yd to the MchSt 37

2nd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.72

Payton Thorne pass incomplete to Jayden Reed

3rd & 9Pass Reception+21 ydsPPA +3.42

Payton Thorne pass complete to Jayden Reed for 21 yds to the OhSt 42 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-2 ydsPPA -1.35

Harold Joiner run for a loss of 2 yards to the OhSt 44

2nd & 12Rush+15 ydsPPA +1.85

Kenneth Walker III run for 15 yds to the OhSt 29 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.53

Payton Thorne pass incomplete to Tre Mosley

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.73

Payton Thorne pass incomplete to Terry Lockett Jr., broken up by Tommy Eichenberg

3rd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.97

Payton Thorne pass incomplete to Jayden Reed

4th & 10Field Goal Missed+46 yds

Matt Coghlin 46 yd FG MISSED

1st & 10Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.37

C.J. Stroud pass complete to Jaxon Smith-Njigba for 6 yds to the OhSt 35

2nd & 4Pass Reception+15 ydsPPA +1.57

C.J. Stroud pass complete to Jaxon Smith-Njigba for 15 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.59

TreVeyon Henderson run for 7 yds to the MchSt 43

2nd & 3Passing Touchdown+43 ydsPPA +3.25

C.J. Stroud pass complete to Chris Olave for 43 yds for a TD, (Noah Ruggles KICK)

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.70

Payton Thorne pass incomplete to Jayden Reed

2nd & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.17

Jordon Simmons run for 6 yds to the MchSt 31

3rd & 4Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +1.47

Payton Thorne pass complete to Connor Heyward for 5 yds to the MchSt 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.64

Jordon Simmons run for 2 yds to the MchSt 38

2nd & 8Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.32

Jordon Simmons run for 6 yds to the MchSt 44 Jordon Simmons fumbled, recovered by OhSt

1st & 10Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.32

C.J. Stroud pass complete to TreVeyon Henderson for 3 yds to the MchSt 41

2nd & 7Pass Reception+16 ydsPPA +1.03

C.J. Stroud pass complete to Jaxon Smith-Njigba for 16 yds to the MchSt 25 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +0.65

TreVeyon Henderson run for 9 yds to the MchSt 16

2nd & 1Rush+7 ydsPPA -0.37

C.J. Stroud run for 7 yds to the MchSt 9 for a 1ST down

1st & 9Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.09

TreVeyon Henderson run for 5 yds to the MchSt 4

2nd & 4Passing Touchdown+4 ydsPPA +2.33

C.J. Stroud pass complete to Julian Fleming for 4 yds for a TD, (Noah Ruggles KICK)

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.45

Kenneth Walker III run for 2 yds to the MchSt 27

2nd & 8Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.08

Payton Thorne pass complete to Kenneth Walker III for 4 yds to the MchSt 31

3rd & 4Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.44

Payton Thorne pass incomplete to Jayden Reed, broken up by Cameron Brown

4th & 4Punt+14 yds

Bryce Baringer punt for 53 yds , Jaxon Smith-Njigba returns for 14 yds to the OhSt 30

1st & 10Rush+14 ydsPPA +1.32

Miyan Williams run for 14 yds to the OhSt 44 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.96

C.J. Stroud pass complete to Jaxon Smith-Njigba for 8 yds to the MchSt 48

2nd & 2Rush+1 ydsPPA -1.01

Miyan Williams run for 1 yd to the MchSt 47

3rd & 1Penalty+5 yds

MICHIGAN ST Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the MchSt 42 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+14 ydsPPA +0.53

C.J. Stroud pass complete to Jaxon Smith-Njigba for 14 yds to the MchSt 28 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+27 ydsPPA +1.83

C.J. Stroud pass complete to Chris Olave for 27 yds to the MchSt 1 for a 1ST down

1st & 1Rushing Touchdown+1 ydsPPA +0.94

Miyan Williams run for 1 yd for a TD, (Noah Ruggles KICK)

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.70

Payton Thorne pass incomplete to Tyler Hunt, broken up by Tyleik Williams

2nd & 10Penalty-10 yds

Walker III, Kenneth rush for 9 yards to the MICHIGANST34, PENALTY MICHIGANST holding 10 yards to the MICHIGANST15, NO PLAY.

2nd & 20Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.06

Payton Thorne pass incomplete

3rd & 20Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.03

Payton Thorne pass incomplete to Harold Joiner, broken up by Tyreke Smith

4th & 20Punt+6 yds

Bryce Baringer punt for 48 yds , Jaxon Smith-Njigba returns for 6 yds to the OhSt 43

1st & 10Rush+18 ydsPPA +1.32

TreVeyon Henderson run for 18 yds to the MchSt 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.81

C.J. Stroud pass incomplete to Garrett Wilson

2nd & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.35

TreVeyon Henderson run for 3 yds to the MchSt 36

3rd & 7Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +1.54

C.J. Stroud pass complete to Jaxon Smith-Njigba for 8 yds to the MchSt 28 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+16 ydsPPA +0.23

C.J. Stroud pass complete to Chris Olave for 16 yds to the MchSt 12 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Passing Touchdown+12 ydsPPA +2.53

C.J. Stroud pass complete to Garrett Wilson for 12 yds for a TD, (Noah Ruggles KICK)

1st & 10Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.57

Payton Thorne pass complete to Jayden Reed for 7 yds to the MchSt 30

2nd & 3Rush-2 ydsPPA -1.17

Kenneth Walker III run for a loss of 2 yards to the MchSt 28

3rd & 5Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.33

Payton Thorne pass incomplete to Jayden Reed

4th & 5Punt+4 yds

Bryce Baringer punt for 61 yds , Jaxon Smith-Njigba returns for 4 yds to the OhSt 15

1st & 10Pass Reception+28 ydsPPA +2.16

C.J. Stroud pass complete to Jeremy Ruckert for 28 yds to the OhSt 43 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.17

C.J. Stroud pass complete to Miyan Williams for 4 yds to the OhSt 47

2nd & 6Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +1.02

C.J. Stroud pass complete to Garrett Wilson for 6 yds to the MchSt 47 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Sack-8 ydsPPA -2.69

C.J. Stroud sacked by Maverick Hansen for a loss of 8 yards to the OhSt 45

2nd & 18Rush+19 ydsPPA +3.30

Miyan Williams run for 19 yds to the MchSt 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+15 ydsPPA +0.38

C.J. Stroud pass complete to Chris Olave for 15 yds to the MchSt 21 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.07

C.J. Stroud pass complete to Mitch Rossi for 5 yds Mitch Rossi fumbled, recovered by OhSt

2nd & 5Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.04

Garrett Wilson run for 5 yds to the MchSt 11 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.18

Master Teague III run for 6 yds to the MchSt 5

2nd & 4Passing Touchdown+5 ydsPPA +2.34

C.J. Stroud pass complete to Jaxon Smith-Njigba for 5 yds for a TD, (Noah Ruggles KICK)

1st & 10Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +1.28

Payton Thorne pass complete to Keon Coleman for 9 yds to the MchSt 35

2nd & 1Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.30

Payton Thorne pass incomplete to Tyler Hunt

3rd & 1Rush+7 ydsPPA +1.47

Jordon Simmons run for 7 yds to the MchSt 42 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.15

Payton Thorne pass incomplete to Keon Coleman

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.82

Payton Thorne pass incomplete to Montorie Foster

3rd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.46

Payton Thorne pass incomplete to Montorie Foster

4th & 10Punt0 yds

Bryce Baringer punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Jaxon Smith-Njigba at the OhSt 19

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.60

TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the OhSt 18

0th & 10End of Half0 yds

End of 2nd Quarter

1st & 10Pass Reception+46 ydsPPA +3.33

Payton Thorne pass complete to Tre Mosley for 46 yds to the OhSt 30 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Sack-8 ydsPPA -1.98

Payton Thorne sacked by Haskell Garrett for a loss of 8 yards to the OhSt 38

2nd & 18Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.80

Kenneth Walker III run for 1 yd to the OhSt 37

3rd & 17Pass Reception-1 ydsPPA -0.96

Payton Thorne pass complete to Connor Heyward for a loss of 1 yard to the OhSt 38

4th & 18Punt0 yds

Bryce Baringer punt for 26 yds, downed at the OhSt 12

1st & 10Rush-3 ydsPPA -0.51

Master Teague III run for a loss of 3 yards to the OhSt 9

2nd & 13Pass Reception+16 ydsPPA +1.16

C.J. Stroud pass complete to Jaxon Smith-Njigba for 16 yds to the OhSt 25 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.30

Master Teague III run for 3 yds to the OhSt 28

2nd & 7Rush+21 ydsPPA +2.45

Master Teague III run for 21 yds to the OhSt 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +0.68

C.J. Stroud pass complete to Miyan Williams for 10 yds to the MchSt 41 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.27

Master Teague III run for 6 yds to the MchSt 35

2nd & 4Pass Reception+13 ydsPPA +0.32

C.J. Stroud pass complete to Jaxon Smith-Njigba for 13 yds to the MchSt 22 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.40

C.J. Stroud pass incomplete to Julian Fleming

2nd & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.06

Master Teague III run for 4 yds to the MchSt 18

3rd & 6Sack-3 ydsPPA -1.07

C.J. Stroud sacked by Drew Beesley for a loss of 3 yards to the MchSt 21

4th & 9Field Goal Missed+38 yds

Noah Ruggles 38 yd FG MISSED

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.49

Jordon Simmons run for 1 yd to the MchSt 22

2nd & 9Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.37

Jordon Simmons run for a loss of 1 yard to the MchSt 21

3rd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.12

Payton Thorne pass incomplete to Christian Fitzpatrick

4th & 10Punt0 yds

Bryce Baringer punt for 50 yds, downed at the OhSt 29

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.10

Master Teague III run for 5 yds to the OhSt 34

2nd & 5Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.36

Master Teague III run for 3 yds to the OhSt 37

3rd & 2Rush+5 ydsPPA +1.48

Kyle McCord run for 5 yds to the OhSt 42 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-2 ydsPPA -1.55

Master Teague III run for a loss of 2 yards to the OhSt 40

2nd & 12Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.25

Master Teague III run for 6 yds to the OhSt 46

3rd & 6Pass Interception Return+10 ydsPPA -1.14

Kyle McCord pass intercepted Justin White return for 10 yds to the MchSt 49

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.10

Payton Thorne run for 5 yds to the OhSt 46

2nd & 5Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.16

Payton Thorne pass incomplete to Connor Heyward

3rd & 5Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.40

Payton Thorne pass complete to Elijah Collins for 3 yds to the OhSt 43

4th & 2Rush+10 ydsPPA +2.48

Elijah Collins run for 10 yds to the OhSt 33 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+15 ydsPPA +0.31

Payton Thorne pass complete to Connor Heyward for 15 yds to the OhSt 18 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.35

Payton Thorne pass incomplete to Tre Mosley

2nd & 10Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.12

Payton Thorne pass complete to Keon Coleman for 6 yds to the OhSt 12

3rd & 4Passing Touchdown+12 ydsPPA +2.82

Payton Thorne pass complete to Keon Coleman for 12 yds for a TD, (Stephen Rusnak KICK)

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.70

Kyle McCord pass incomplete to Julian Fleming, broken up by Drew Jordan

2nd & 10Rush-2 ydsPPA -0.43

Master Teague III run for a loss of 2 yards to the OhSt 23

3rd & 12Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +0.23

Kyle McCord pass complete to Sam Wiglusz for 9 yds to the OhSt 32

4th & 3Punt0 yds

Jesse Mirco punt for 50 yds, fair catch by Cade McDonald at the MchSt 18

1st & 10Rush+16 ydsPPA +1.15

Elijah Collins run for 16 yds to the MchSt 34 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Sack-2 ydsPPA -1.28

Payton Thorne sacked by Tyleik Williams for a loss of 2 yards to the MchSt 32

2nd & 12Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.19

Elijah Collins run for 3 yds to the MchSt 35

3rd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.33

Payton Thorne pass incomplete to Montorie Foster

4th & 9Punt0 yds

Bryce Baringer punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Jaxon Smith-Njigba at the OhSt 25

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.33

Master Teague III run for 6 yds to the OhSt 31

2nd & 4Pass Reception-1 ydsPPA -0.99

Kyle McCord pass complete to Gee Scott Jr. for a loss of 1 yard to the OhSt 30

3rd & 5Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +1.49

Kyle McCord pass complete to Sam Wiglusz for 5 yds to the OhSt 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.63

Master Teague III run for 2 yds to the OhSt 37

2nd & 8Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.13

Kyle McCord run for 4 yds to the OhSt 41

3rd & 4Rush+16 ydsPPA +2.65

Master Teague III run for 1 yd to the MchSt 42 for a 1ST down MICHIGAN ST Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (15 Yards) to the MchSt 43 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.29

Master Teague III run for 6 yds to the MchSt 37

2nd & 4Rush+10 ydsPPA +0.32

Master Teague III run for 10 yds to the MchSt 27 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.49

Kyle McCord pass incomplete to Julian Fleming

2nd & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +0.53

Master Teague III run for 9 yds to the MchSt 18

3rd & 1Rush+3 ydsPPA +0.15

Master Teague III run for 3 yds to the MchSt 15 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.02

Kyle McCord pass complete to Julian Fleming for 4 yds to the MchSt 11

2nd & 6Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.02

Master Teague III run for 4 yds to the MchSt 7

3rd & 2Rush+6 ydsPPA +1.66

Master Teague III run for 6 yds to the MchSt 1 for a 1ST down

1st & 1Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.96

Kyle McCord pass incomplete to Marvin Harrison Jr.

2nd & 1Rushing Touchdown+1 ydsPPA +1.90

Master Teague III run for 1 yd for a TD, (Noah Ruggles KICK)

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.40

Jordon Simmons run for 2 yds to the MchSt 24

2nd & 8Pass Reception-2 ydsPPA -0.51

Anthony Russo pass complete to Jordon Simmons for a loss of 2 yards to the MchSt 22

3rd & 10Pass Reception+2 ydsPPA -0.09

Anthony Russo pass complete to Christian Fitzpatrick for 2 yds to the MchSt 24

4th & 8Punt0 yds

Bryce Baringer punt for 74 yds, downed at the OhSt 2

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.16

Robert Cope run for 2 yds to the OhSt 4

2nd & 8Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.10

Robert Cope run for 2 yds to the OhSt 6

Situational Analysis

Michigan State

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
30%
23 plays
2nd
0%
2 plays
0%
1 play
30%
10 plays
33%
6 plays
3rd
100%
1 play
40%
5 plays
14%
7 plays
33%
3 plays
4th
100%
1 play

Ohio State

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
50%
2 plays
56%
41 plays
100%
1 play
2nd
50%
6 plays
73%
11 plays
58%
12 plays
100%
3 plays
3rd
100%
4 plays
50%
4 plays
100%
1 play
100%
1 play
4th