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← Back to GamesNov 27, 2021Week 13
Conference Game

House Prediction

Model Margin

Michigan State by 1.3

Home Win Probability

Michigan State 47%

Market (consensus)

Michigan State +4.5

Edge: Michigan State +4.5 (5.8 pts)

fitted_v1 · Nov 27, 2021

Line Movement

No line movement to chart

Sportsbook snapshots publish once a line is posted for this game.

Team1Q2Q3Q4QFinal
Penn StatePenn State
776727
Michigan StateMichigan State
1436730

Scoring Timeline

Q1Q2Q3Q4014287-014-014-717-1423-2030-2030-27
Michigan StatePenn State

Drive Chart

Own 20Own 4050Opp 40Opp 20MSPSMSPSMSPSMSPSMSPSMSPSMSMSPSMSPSMSMSPSMSTD876ydPUNT39ydTD999ydTD668ydPUNT39ydPUNT527ydPUNT38ydTD346ydFG1570ydMISS1061ydEND27ydPUNT624ydTD33ydTD1575ydDOWNS1254ydPUNT720ydTO38ydTD748ydTO40ydTD1377ydEND2-3yd

Box Score

Team statistics comparing Penn State and Michigan State
StatisticPenn StateMichigan State
Passing23-3419-30
Pass Yards313268
Rush Yards61183
Total Yards374451
Turnovers21
3rd Down5-139-18
Penalties2-177-50
Possession23:2836:32

Player Leaders

Player Leaders

Penn State
passing
Sean Clifford
23/34, 313 YDS, 3 TD
rushing
Keyvone Lee
15 CAR, 79 YDS
receiving
Jahan Dotson
8 REC, 137 YDS, 2 TD
defense
Michigan State
passing
Payton Thorne
19/30, 268 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
rushing
Kenneth Walker III
30 CAR, 138 YDS, 1 TD
receiving
Jayden Reed
6 REC, 89 YDS, 1 TD
defense

Play-by-Play

1st & 10Pass Reception+13 ydsPPA +1.10

Payton Thorne pass complete to Montorie Foster for 13 yds to the MchSt 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -1.24

Kenneth Walker III run for a loss of 1 yard to the MchSt 36

2nd & 11Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.25

Kenneth Walker III run for 3 yds to the MchSt 39

3rd & 8Pass Reception+40 ydsPPA +3.91

Payton Thorne pass complete to Maliq Carr for 40 yds to the PnSt 21 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty-5 yds

MICHIGAN ST Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the PnSt 26

1st & 15Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.30

Payton Thorne run for 8 yds to the PnSt 18

2nd & 7Rush+11 ydsPPA +0.56

Kenneth Walker III run for 5 yds to the PnSt 13 for a 1ST down PENN ST Penalty, Personal Foul (6 Yards) to the PnSt 7 for a 1ST down

1st & 7Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.13

Payton Thorne run for 5 yds to the PnSt 2

2nd & 2Rushing Touchdown+2 ydsPPA +2.07

Kenneth Walker III 2 Yd Run (Matt Coghlin Kick)

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.09

Sean Clifford pass incomplete to Jahan Dotson

2nd & 10Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.76

Sean Clifford pass complete to Brenton Strange for 8 yds to the PnSt 46

3rd & 2Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.82

Keyvone Lee run for 1 yd to the PnSt 47

4th & 1Punt0 yds

Jordan Stout punt for 52 yds, downed at the MchSt 1

1st & 10Rush+35 ydsPPA +1.84

Kenneth Walker III run for 35 yds to the MchSt 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+15 ydsPPA +1.38

Kenneth Walker III run for 15 yds to the PnSt 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+14 ydsPPA +0.79

Payton Thorne pass complete to Jayden Reed for 14 yds to the PnSt 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception0 ydsPPA -0.69

Payton Thorne pass complete to Jayden Reed for no gain to the PnSt 35

2nd & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.50

Kenneth Walker III run for 2 yds to the PnSt 33

3rd & 8Pass Reception+23 ydsPPA +1.65

Payton Thorne pass complete to Jayden Reed for 23 yds to the PnSt 10 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.23

Kenneth Walker III run for 1 yd to the PnSt 9

2nd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.27

Payton Thorne pass incomplete to Kenneth Walker III

3rd & 9Passing Touchdown+9 ydsPPA +3.01

Tre Mosley 9 Yd pass from Payton Thorne (Matt Coghlin Kick)

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.15

Keyvone Lee run for 4 yds to the PnSt 36

2nd & 6Pass Reception+21 ydsPPA +2.32

Sean Clifford pass complete to Brenton Strange for 21 yds to the MchSt 43 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.94

Sean Clifford run for no gain to the MchSt 43

2nd & 10Sack-2 ydsPPA -1.48

Sean Clifford sacked by Drew Beesley and Maverick Hansen for a loss of 2 yards to the MchSt 45

3rd & 12Pass Reception+18 ydsPPA +3.03

Sean Clifford pass complete to Jahan Dotson for 18 yds to the MchSt 27 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Passing Touchdown+27 ydsPPA +2.74

Jahan Dotson 27 Yd pass from Sean Clifford (Jordan Stout Kick)

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.45

Kenneth Walker III run for 2 yds to the MchSt 27

2nd & 8Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.31

Kenneth Walker III run for 2 yds to the MchSt 29

3rd & 6Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.04

Payton Thorne pass complete to Montorie Foster for 5 yds to the MchSt 34

4th & 1Punt0 yds

Bryce Baringer punt for 45 yds, downed at the PnSt 21

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.59

Noah Cain run for no gain to the PnSt 21

2nd & 10Pass Reception+18 ydsPPA +2.06

Sean Clifford pass complete to Parker Washington for 18 yds to the PnSt 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-3 ydsPPA -1.62

Sean Clifford run for a loss of 3 yards to the PnSt 36

2nd & 13Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.50

Sean Clifford pass incomplete to Jahan Dotson

3rd & 13Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +0.93

Sean Clifford pass complete to KeAndre Lambert-Smith for 12 yds to the PnSt 48

4th & 1Punt0 yds

Jordan Stout punt for 45 yds, downed at the MchSt 7

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.07

Kenneth Walker III run for 5 yds to the MchSt 12

2nd & 5Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.34

Payton Thorne pass incomplete to Connor Heyward

3rd & 5Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.06

Payton Thorne run for 3 yds to the MchSt 15

4th & 2Punt0 yds

Bryce Baringer punt for 31 yds, fair catch by Jahan Dotson at the MchSt 46

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.03

Sean Clifford pass incomplete to Noah Cain

2nd & 10Pass Reception+16 ydsPPA +1.75

Sean Clifford pass complete to Parker Washington for 16 yds to the MchSt 30 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Passing Touchdown+30 ydsPPA +2.81

Jahan Dotson 30 Yd pass from Sean Clifford (Jordan Stout Kick)

1st & 10Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.11

Payton Thorne pass complete to Montorie Foster for 4 yds to the MchSt 29

2nd & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.65

Payton Thorne pass incomplete to Jayden Reed

3rd & 6Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +2.09

Payton Thorne pass complete to Maliq Carr for 11 yds to the MchSt 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -1.12

Kenneth Walker III run for no gain to the MchSt 40

2nd & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.48

Elijah Collins run for 2 yds to the MchSt 42

3rd & 8Pass Reception+19 ydsPPA +3.23

Payton Thorne pass complete to Montorie Foster for 19 yds to the PnSt 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-2 ydsPPA -1.22

Harold Joiner run for a loss of 2 yards to the PnSt 41

2nd & 12Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.47

Payton Thorne run for 7 yds to the PnSt 34

3rd & 5Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.14

Elijah Collins run for 4 yds to the PnSt 30

4th & 1Penalty-5 yds

MICHIGAN ST Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the PnSt 35

4th & 6Pass Reception+19 ydsPPA +2.56

Payton Thorne pass complete to Connor Heyward for 19 yds to the PnSt 16 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +0.68

Payton Thorne pass complete to Elijah Collins for 11 yds to the PnSt 5 for a 1ST down

1st & 5Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.55

Payton Thorne pass incomplete to Jayden Reed

2nd & 5Penalty-5 yds

MICHIGAN ST Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the PnSt 10

2nd & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.04

Kenneth Walker III run for 5 yds to the PnSt 5

3rd & 5Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.29

Payton Thorne pass incomplete to Montorie Foster

4th & 5Field Goal Good+22 yds

Matt Coghlin 22 Yd Field Goal

1st & 10Rush+33 ydsPPA +2.64

Keyvone Lee run for 33 yds to the MchSt 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.75

Sean Clifford pass incomplete to Keyvone Lee

2nd & 10Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +0.76

Sean Clifford pass complete to Brenton Strange for 9 yds to the MchSt 28

3rd & 1Rush+3 ydsPPA +0.34

Devyn Ford run for 3 yds to the MchSt 25 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.04

Devyn Ford run for 4 yds to the MchSt 21

2nd & 6Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +0.21

Sean Clifford pass complete to KeAndre Lambert-Smith for 9 yds to the MchSt 12 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.07

Sean Clifford pass complete to Jahan Dotson for 5 yds to the MchSt 7

2nd & 5Rush0 ydsPPA -0.33

Sean Clifford run for no gain to the MchSt 7

3rd & 5Sack-2 ydsPPA -0.50

Sean Clifford sacked by Drew Beesley for a loss of 2 yards to the MchSt 9

4th & 7Field Goal Missed+27 yds

Jordan Stout 27 yd FG MISSED

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.24

Kenneth Walker III run for 3 yds to the MchSt 23

2nd & 7Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.07

Kenneth Walker III run for 4 yds to the MchSt 27

0th & 7End of Half0 yds

End of 2nd Quarter

1st & 10Rush-2 ydsPPA -0.77

Keyvone Lee run for a loss of 2 yards to the PnSt 20

2nd & 12Pass Reception+14 ydsPPA +1.70

Sean Clifford pass complete to Jahan Dotson for 14 yds to the PnSt 34 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+18 ydsPPA +1.65

Keyvone Lee run for 18 yds to the MchSt 48 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.60

Keyvone Lee run for 2 yds to the MchSt 46

2nd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.10

Sean Clifford pass incomplete to Parker Washington

3rd & 8Sack-8 ydsPPA -1.70

Sean Clifford sacked by Cal Haladay and Jacub Panasiuk for a loss of 8 yards to the PnSt 46

4th & 16Punt0 yds

Jordan Stout punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Jayden Reed at the MchSt 7

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.31

Payton Thorne pass incomplete to Montorie Foster

2nd & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.06

Kenneth Walker III run for 3 yds to the MchSt 10

3rd & 7Interception Return Touchdown+17 ydsPPA -6.77

Daequan Hardy 17 Yd Interception Return (Jordan Stout PAT failed)

1st & 10Rush+27 ydsPPA +2.39

Kenneth Walker III run for 27 yds to the PnSt 48 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.60

Elijah Collins run for 2 yds to the PnSt 46

2nd & 8Rush+10 ydsPPA +1.28

Elijah Collins run for 10 yds to the PnSt 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.72

Payton Thorne pass incomplete to Connor Heyward

2nd & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.73

Elijah Collins run for 1 yd to the PnSt 35

3rd & 9Penalty-5 yds

MICHIGAN ST Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the PnSt 40

3rd & 14Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +1.35

Payton Thorne pass complete to Jayden Reed for 11 yds to the PnSt 29

4th & 3Rush+5 ydsPPA +1.51

Payton Thorne run for 5 yds to the PnSt 24 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.14

Kenneth Walker III run for 3 yds to the PnSt 21

2nd & 7Penalty-15 yds

Walker III, Kenneth rush for loss of 2 yards to the PENNST23, PENALTY MICHIGANST personal foul 15 yards to the PENNST36, NO PLAY.

2nd & 22Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +1.04

Payton Thorne pass complete to Connor Heyward for 10 yds to the PnSt 26

3rd & 12Pass Reception+21 ydsPPA +2.14

Payton Thorne pass complete to Jayden Reed for 21 yds to the PnSt 5 for a 1ST down

1st & 5Penalty-10 yds

Walker III, Kenneth rush for 5 yards to the PENNST0, PENALTY MICHIGANST holding 10 yards to the PENNST15, NO PLAY.

1st & 15Rush-4 ydsPPA -0.62

Kenneth Walker III run for a loss of 4 yards to the PnSt 19

2nd & 19Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.13

Payton Thorne pass complete to Connor Heyward for 6 yds to the PnSt 13

3rd & 13Penalty+11 yds

Thorne, Payton pass incomplete to Reed, Jayden, PENALTY PENNST pass interference (Porter Jr., Joey) 11 yards to the PENNST2, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN MICHIGANST.

1st & 2Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.69

Kenneth Walker III run for 1 yd to the PnSt 1

2nd & 1Rush0 ydsPPA -0.55

Kenneth Walker III run for no gain to the PnSt 1

3rd & 1Rushing Touchdown+1 ydsPPA +2.45

Payton Thorne 1 Yd Run (Evan Johnson PAT failed)

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.99

Keyvone Lee run for a loss of 1 yard to the PnSt 29

2nd & 11Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.33

Keyvone Lee run for 7 yds to the PnSt 36

3rd & 4Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +1.69

Sean Clifford pass complete to Jahan Dotson for 5 yds to the PnSt 41 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +1.05

Sean Clifford pass complete to Keyvone Lee for 12 yds to the MchSt 47 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.54

Sean Clifford pass complete to Keyvone Lee for 7 yds to the MchSt 40

2nd & 3Rush0 ydsPPA -1.04

Keyvone Lee run for no gain to the MchSt 40

3rd & 3Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.12

Sean Clifford pass incomplete to Theo Johnson

4th & 3Pass Reception+15 ydsPPA +2.53

Sean Clifford pass complete to Jahan Dotson for 15 yds to the MchSt 25 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.14

Keyvone Lee run for 3 yds to the MchSt 22

2nd & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.50

Sean Clifford pass incomplete to Devyn Ford

3rd & 7Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.17

Keyvone Lee run for 6 yds to the MchSt 16

4th & 1Rush0 ydsPPA -3.83

Keyvone Lee run for no gain to the MchSt 16

1st & 10Penalty-5 yds

MICHIGAN ST Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the MchSt 11

1st & 15Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.08

Kenneth Walker III run for 3 yds to the MchSt 14

2nd & 12Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.08

Payton Thorne run for 6 yds to the MchSt 20

3rd & 6Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +1.14

Payton Thorne pass complete to Harold Joiner for 7 yds to the MchSt 27 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+11 ydsPPA +0.98

Kenneth Walker III run for 11 yds to the MchSt 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-2 ydsPPA -1.43

Kenneth Walker III run for a loss of 2 yards to the MchSt 36

2nd & 12Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.54

Payton Thorne pass incomplete to Montorie Foster

3rd & 12Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.27

Payton Thorne pass incomplete to Jayden Reed

4th & 12Punt0 yds

Bryce Baringer punt for 24 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the PnSt 40

1st & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +1.34

Keyvone Lee run for 9 yds to the PnSt 49

2nd & 1Rush0 ydsPPA -1.40

Keyvone Lee run for no gain to the PnSt 49

3rd & 1Fumble Recovery (Opponent)-1 ydsPPA -2.19

Keyvone Lee run for a loss of 1 yard to the PnSt 48 Keyvone Lee fumbled, forced by Cal Haladay, recovered by MchSt Drew Beesley

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.80

Kenneth Walker III run for 8 yds to the PnSt 40

2nd & 2Rush0 ydsPPA -1.07

Kenneth Walker III run for no gain to the PnSt 40

3rd & 2Pass Reception+25 ydsPPA +1.40

Payton Thorne pass complete to Connor Heyward for 25 yds to the PnSt 15 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.10

Kenneth Walker III run for 3 yds to the PnSt 12

2nd & 7Rush-8 ydsPPA -1.19

Jayden Reed run for a loss of 8 yards to the PnSt 20

3rd & 15Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.88

Payton Thorne pass incomplete

4th & 15Passing Touchdown+20 ydsPPA +4.73

Jayden Reed 20 Yd pass from Payton Thorne (Evan Johnson Kick)

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.05

Payton Thorne run for 4 yds to the PnSt 25

2nd & 6Rush0 ydsPPA -0.57

Kenneth Walker III run for no gain to the PnSt 25

3rd & 6Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.25

Kenneth Walker III run for 3 yds to the PnSt 22

4th & 3Rush-1 ydsPPA -3.34

Kenneth Walker III run for a loss of 1 yard to the PnSt 23

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.64

Sean Clifford pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.31

Sean Clifford pass incomplete to Brenton Strange

3rd & 10Fumble Recovery (Own)-14 ydsPPA -0.24

Sean Clifford sacked by Brandon Wright for a loss of 14 yards to the PnSt 9 Sean Clifford fumbled, forced by Brandon Wright, recovered by PnSt Sean Clifford , return for 0 yards

4th & 24Pass Reception+25 ydsPPA +2.06

Sean Clifford pass complete to Brenton Strange for 25 yds to the PnSt 34 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.40

Sean Clifford pass complete to Keyvone Lee for 3 yds to the PnSt 37

2nd & 7Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.14

Sean Clifford pass complete to Keyvone Lee for 4 yds to the PnSt 41

3rd & 3Rush+4 ydsPPA +1.60

Sean Clifford run for 4 yds to the PnSt 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+23 ydsPPA +1.41

Sean Clifford pass complete to Jahan Dotson for 23 yds to the MchSt 32 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.22

Sean Clifford pass complete to Keyvone Lee for 6 yds to the MchSt 26

2nd & 4Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +0.09

Sean Clifford pass complete to Parker Washington for 11 yds to the MchSt 15 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.32

Sean Clifford pass incomplete to KeAndre Lambert-Smith

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.36

Sean Clifford pass incomplete to Malick Meiga

3rd & 10Passing Touchdown+15 ydsPPA +3.24

Parker Washington 15 Yd pass from Sean Clifford (Jake Pinegar Kick)

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -1.35

TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the MchSt 49

2nd & 11Rush-2 ydsPPA -1.28

TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the MchSt 47

Situational Analysis

Penn State

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
40%
25 plays
2nd
0%
2 plays
75%
4 plays
40%
10 plays
67%
3 plays
3rd
40%
5 plays
50%
2 plays
50%
4 plays
100%
2 plays
4th
50%
2 plays
100%
1 play

Michigan State

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
0%
1 play
0%
1 play
38%
26 plays
33%
3 plays
2nd
33%
3 plays
0%
3 plays
27%
11 plays
57%
7 plays
3rd
100%
2 plays
43%
7 plays
80%
5 plays
50%
4 plays
4th
50%
2 plays
100%
1 play
100%
1 play