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← Back to GamesSep 25, 2021Week 4
Conference Game

House Prediction

Model Margin

Michigan State by 12.4

Home Win Probability

Michigan State 78%

Market (consensus)

Michigan State -3.5

Edge: Michigan State -3.5 (8.9 pts)

fitted_v1 · Sep 25, 2021

Line Movement

No line movement to chart

Sportsbook snapshots publish once a line is posted for this game.

Team1Q2Q3Q4QOTFinal
NebraskaNebraska
01037020
Michigan StateMichigan State
01307323

Scoring Timeline

Q1Q2Q3Q4014287-310-1013-1013-1313-2020-20
Michigan StateNebraska

Drive Chart

Own 20Own 4050Opp 40Opp 20MSNEBMSNEBMSNEBMSNEBMSNEBMSNEBMSNEBMSNEBMSNEBMSNEBMSNEBNEBMSNEBNEBMSTO416ydPUNT30ydDOWNS1026ydPUNT726ydPUNT37ydPUNT48ydTD355ydFG765ydFG649ydTD975ydFG961ydPUNT414ydMISS319ydFG1460ydPUNT38ydPUNT1146ydPUNT35ydTO514ydPUNT3-1ydTD1180ydPUNT3-7ydTD37ydPUNT315ydPUNT39ydEND212ydTO37ydFG422yd

Box Score

Team statistics comparing Nebraska and Michigan State
StatisticNebraskaMichigan State
Passing25-3614-23
Pass Yards248183
Rush Yards19471
Total Yards442254
Turnovers21
3rd Down7-201-11
Penalties6-405-44
Possession37:2822:32

Player Leaders

Player Leaders

Nebraska
passing
Adrian Martinez
24/34, 244 YDS, 1 INT
rushing
Rahmir Johnson
19 CAR, 76 YDS
receiving
Zavier Betts
5 REC, 62 YDS
defense
Michigan State
passing
Payton Thorne
14/23, 183 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
rushing
Kenneth Walker III
19 CAR, 61 YDS
receiving
Tre Mosley
6 REC, 70 YDS
defense

Play-by-Play

1st & 10Rush-3 ydsPPA -0.96

Kenneth Walker III run for a loss of 3 yards to the MchSt 22

2nd & 13Pass Reception+17 ydsPPA +2.18

Payton Thorne pass complete to Jayden Reed for 17 yds to the MchSt 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.67

Kenneth Walker III run for 2 yds to the MchSt 41

2nd & 8Pass Interception Return0 ydsPPA -1.47

Payton Thorne pass intercepted return for no gain to the Neb 18

1st & 10Sack0 ydsPPA -0.51

Adrian Martinez sacked by Drew Beesley and Jacub Panasiuk for 0 yards to the Neb 13

2nd & 15Rush0 ydsPPA -0.10

Rahmir Johnson run for no gain to the Neb 13

3rd & 15Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.01

Adrian Martinez run for 5 yds to the Neb 18

4th & 10Punt0 yds

William Przystup punt for 28 yds

2nd & 6Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.54

Kenneth Walker III run for 1 yd to the Neb 29

3rd & 5Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.11

Kenneth Walker III run for 4 yds to the Neb 25

4th & 1Rush-5 ydsPPA -3.35

Payton Thorne run for a loss of 5 yards to the Neb 30

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.14

Logan Smothers run for 4 yds to the Neb 34

2nd & 6Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.13

Logan Smothers pass complete to Omar Manning for 4 yds to the Neb 38

3rd & 2Rush+7 ydsPPA +1.69

Logan Smothers run for 7 yds to the Neb 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+15 ydsPPA +1.09

Rahmir Johnson run for 15 yds to the MchSt 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty-5 yds

NEBRASKA Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the MchSt 45

1st & 15Penalty-5 yds

NEBRASKA Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the 50 yard line

1st & 20Rush0 ydsPPA -0.95

Logan Smothers run for no gain to the 50 yard line

2nd & 20Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.64

Logan Smothers pass incomplete

3rd & 20Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.13

Rahmir Johnson run for 6 yds to the MchSt 44

4th & 14Punt0 yds

Daniel Cerni punt for 44 yds for a touchback

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.47

Jordon Simmons run for 1 yd to the MchSt 21

2nd & 9Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.16

Payton Thorne pass complete to Tre Mosley for 6 yds to the MchSt 27

3rd & 3Pass Reception0 ydsPPA -0.40

Payton Thorne pass complete to Jayden Reed for no gain to the MchSt 27

4th & 3Punt0 yds

Bryce Baringer punt for 67 yds, downed at the Neb 6

1st & 10Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +0.32

Adrian Martinez pass complete to Samori Toure for 10 yds to the Neb 16 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.30

Markese Stepp run for 2 yds to the Neb 18

2nd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.30

Adrian Martinez pass incomplete

3rd & 8Sack0 ydsPPA -0.13

Adrian Martinez sacked by Quavaris Crouch for 0 yards to the Neb 14

4th & 12Punt0 yds

William Przystup punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Jayden Reed at the MchSt 45

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.94

Kenneth Walker III run for 8 yds to the Neb 47

2nd & 2Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +0.36

Payton Thorne pass complete to Tre Mosley for 12 yds to the Neb 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Passing Touchdown+35 ydsPPA +2.97

Payton Thorne pass complete to Jayden Reed for 35 yds for a TD, (Matt Coghlin KICK)

1st & 10Pass Reception+15 ydsPPA +1.32

Adrian Martinez pass complete to Zavier Betts for 15 yds to the Neb 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.68

Rahmir Johnson run for 2 yds to the Neb 42

2nd & 8Penalty-5 yds

NEBRASKA Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Neb 37

2nd & 13Rush+45 ydsPPA +3.82

Adrian Martinez run for 45 yds to the MICHIGANST 18 for a 1ST down MICHIGAN ST Penalty, Personal Foul (Angelo Grose) to the MchSt 9 for a 1ST down

1st & 9Pass Reception+1 ydsPPA -0.25

Adrian Martinez pass complete to Omar Manning for 1 yd to the MchSt 8

2nd & 8Penalty-5 yds

NEBRASKA Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the MchSt 13

2nd & 13Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.11

Brody Belt run for 3 yds to the MchSt 10

3rd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.44

Adrian Martinez pass incomplete

4th & 10Field Goal Good+28 yds

Connor Culp 28 yd FG GOOD

0th & 0Kickoff Return (Offense)+41 yds

Brendan Franke kickoff for 63 yds , Jayden Reed return for 41 yds to the MchSt 43

1st & 10Pass Reception+35 ydsPPA +1.82

Payton Thorne pass complete to Tre Mosley for 35 yds to the Neb 22 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+11 ydsPPA +0.13

Kenneth Walker III run for 11 yds to the Neb 11 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.02

Kenneth Walker III run for 4 yds to the Neb 7

2nd & 6Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.17

Kenneth Walker III run for 2 yds to the Neb 5

3rd & 4Sack0 ydsPPA -0.30

Payton Thorne sacked by Garrett Nelson for 0 yards to the Neb 8

4th & 7Field Goal Good+26 yds

Matt Coghlin 26 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Rush+13 ydsPPA +1.12

Adrian Martinez run for 13 yds to the Neb 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.71

Adrian Martinez pass complete to Zavier Betts for 7 yds to the Neb 45

2nd & 3Rush-1 ydsPPA -1.52

Rahmir Johnson run for a loss of 1 yard to the Neb 44

3rd & 4Pass Reception+17 ydsPPA +2.63

Adrian Martinez pass complete to Zavier Betts for 17 yds to the MchSt 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.09

Rahmir Johnson run for 5 yds to the MchSt 34

2nd & 5Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.83

Adrian Martinez pass incomplete

3rd & 5Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.14

Adrian Martinez run for 4 yds to the MchSt 30

4th & 1Rush+18 ydsPPA +1.50

Rahmir Johnson run for 18 yds to the MchSt 12 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rushing Touchdown+12 ydsPPA +2.53

Adrian Martinez run for 12 yds for a TD, (Connor Culp KICK)

0th & 0Kickoff Return (Offense)+28 yds

Brendan Franke kickoff for 63 yds , Jayden Reed return for 28 yds to the MchSt 30

1st & 10Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.10

Payton Thorne pass complete to Connor Heyward for 5 yds to the MchSt 35

2nd & 5Rush+10 ydsPPA +1.31

Jordon Simmons run for 10 yds to the MchSt 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +1.23

Payton Thorne pass complete to Tre Mosley for 9 yds to the Neb 46

2nd & 1Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.37

Jordon Simmons run for 2 yds to the Neb 44 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+34 ydsPPA +0.90

Payton Thorne pass complete to Connor Heyward for 34 yds to the Neb 10 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.18

Payton Thorne pass complete to Jordon Simmons for 6 yds to the Neb 4

2nd & 4Penalty-5 yds

MICHIGAN ST Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Neb 9

2nd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.27

Payton Thorne pass incomplete

3rd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.39

Payton Thorne pass incomplete

4th & 9Field Goal Good+27 yds

Matt Coghlin 27 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Pass Reception+18 ydsPPA +1.61

Adrian Martinez pass complete to Zavier Betts for 18 yds to the Neb 43 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.11

Adrian Martinez pass complete to Zavier Betts for 5 yds to the Neb 48

2nd & 5Sack0 ydsPPA -1.20

Adrian Martinez sacked by Jacob Slade for 0 yards to the Neb 43

3rd & 10Sack0 ydsPPA -0.49

Adrian Martinez sacked by Simeon Barrow and Jacub Panasiuk for 0 yards to the Neb 39

4th & 14Punt0 yds

William Przystup punt for 7 yds

1st & 10Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.10

Payton Thorne pass complete to Tre Mosley for 5 yds to the Neb 41

2nd & 5Penalty+5 yds

NEBRASKA Penalty, Offsides (Caleb Tannor) to the Neb 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +0.77

Payton Thorne run for 9 yds to the Neb 27

2nd & 1Blocked Field Goal0 yds

Matt Coghlin 44 yd FG BLOCKED blocked by , Cam Taylor-Britt return for no gain to the Neb 25

0th & 10End of Half0 yds

End of 2nd Quarter

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.86

Adrian Martinez pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.08

Adrian Martinez run for 4 yds to the Neb 34

3rd & 6Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +2.27

Adrian Martinez pass complete to Samori Toure for 10 yds to the Neb 44 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.16

Adrian Martinez pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +1.11

Adrian Martinez pass complete to Samori Toure for 9 yds to the MchSt 47

3rd & 1Rush+7 ydsPPA +1.23

Adrian Martinez run for 7 yds to the MchSt 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.65

Rahmir Johnson run for 1 yd to the MchSt 39

2nd & 9Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.27

Adrian Martinez pass complete to Omar Manning for 6 yds to the MchSt 33

3rd & 3Rush+4 ydsPPA +0.78

Rahmir Johnson run for 4 yds to the MchSt 29 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+18 ydsPPA +0.27

Adrian Martinez pass complete to Travis Vokolek for 18 yds to the MchSt 11 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.35

Adrian Martinez run for a loss of 1 yard to the MchSt 12

2nd & 11Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.16

Sevion Morrison run for 2 yds to the MchSt 10

3rd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.41

Adrian Martinez pass incomplete

4th & 9Field Goal Good+28 yds

Connor Culp 28 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.30

Kenneth Walker III run for 3 yds to the MchSt 28

2nd & 7Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.27

Kenneth Walker III run for 6 yds to the MchSt 34

3rd & 1Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.80

Kenneth Walker III run for a loss of 1 yard to the MchSt 33

4th & 2Punt0 yds

Bryce Baringer punt for 55 yds, downed at the Neb 12

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.16

Rahmir Johnson run for 3 yds to the Neb 15

2nd & 7Pass Reception+22 ydsPPA +1.84

Adrian Martinez pass complete to Levi Falck for 22 yds to the Neb 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception-1 ydsPPA -1.24

Adrian Martinez pass complete to Austin Allen for a loss of 1 yard to the Neb 36

2nd & 11Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.58

Adrian Martinez pass incomplete

3rd & 11Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +2.78

Adrian Martinez pass complete to Samori Toure for 11 yds to the Neb 47 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.41

Rahmir Johnson run for 3 yds to the 50 yard line

2nd & 7Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.16

Adrian Martinez pass complete to Austin Allen for 4 yds to the MchSt 46

3rd & 3Rush+7 ydsPPA +1.53

Adrian Martinez run for 7 yds to the MchSt 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.81

Rahmir Johnson run for no gain to the MchSt 39

2nd & 10Sack0 ydsPPA -1.01

Adrian Martinez sacked by Chase Kline and Jeff Pietrowski for 0 yards to the MchSt 42

3rd & 13Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.83

Adrian Martinez pass incomplete

4th & 13Punt0 yds

Daniel Cerni punt for 33 yds

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.22

Jayden Reed run for 2 yds to the MchSt 11

2nd & 8Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.09

Payton Thorne pass complete to Tre Mosley for 3 yds to the MchSt 14

3rd & 5Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.16

Payton Thorne pass incomplete

4th & 5Punt+54 yds

Bryce Baringer punt for 54 yds , Samori Toure returns for a loss of 1 yard to the Neb 31

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.57

Rahmir Johnson run for 2 yds to the Neb 33

2nd & 8Pass Reception+14 ydsPPA +2.08

Adrian Martinez pass complete to Austin Allen for 14 yds to the Neb 47 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.15

Adrian Martinez pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.07

Rahmir Johnson run for 5 yds to the MchSt 48

3rd & 5Sack0 ydsPPA -0.99

Adrian Martinez sacked for 0 yards to the Neb 45

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.09

Payton Thorne run for 5 yds to the Neb 40

2nd & 5Rush-6 ydsPPA -2.37

Kenneth Walker III run for a loss of 6 yards to the Neb 46

3rd & 11Pass Incompletion+11 ydsPPA +2.78

Payton Thorne pass incomplete pass complete to Jayden Reed for 11 yds to the Neb 46

4th & 11Punt0 yds

Bryce Baringer punt for 46 yds for a touchback

2nd & 1Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.24

Samori Toure run for 4 yds to the MchSt 43 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.11

Rahmir Johnson run for 4 yds to the MchSt 39

2nd & 6Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.11

Rahmir Johnson run for 4 yds to the MchSt 35

3rd & 2Rush-1 ydsPPA -1.27

Rahmir Johnson run for a loss of 1 yard to the MchSt 36

4th & 3Rush+6 ydsPPA +2.03

Caleb Tannor run for 6 yds to the MchSt 30 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+14 ydsPPA +0.25

Adrian Martinez pass complete to Sevion Morrison for 14 yds to the MchSt 16 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.45

Sevion Morrison run for 8 yds to the MchSt 8

1st & 10Pass Reception+24 ydsPPA +2.02

Adrian Martinez pass complete to Brody Belt for 24 yds to the Neb 44 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +1.26

Adrian Martinez pass complete to Rahmir Johnson for 9 yds to the MchSt 47

2nd & 2Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.65

Sevion Morrison run for 5 yds to the MchSt 3 for a 1ST down

1st & 3Rushing Touchdown+3 ydsPPA +1.46

Adrian Martinez 3 Yd Run (Connor Culp Kick)

0th & 0Kickoff Return (Offense)+15 yds

Brendan Franke kickoff for 59 yds , Jalen Nailor return for 15 yds to the MchSt 21

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.59

Payton Thorne pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.28

Payton Thorne pass incomplete

3rd & 10Sack0 ydsPPA -0.12

Payton Thorne sacked by Luke Reimer and Nick Henrich for 0 yards to the MchSt 14

4th & 17Punt0 yds

Bryce Baringer punt for 65 yds, downed at the Neb 21

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.09

Adrian Martinez run for 5 yds to the Neb 26

2nd & 5Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.53

Rahmir Johnson run for 1 yd to the Neb 27

3rd & 4Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.30

Adrian Martinez run for 1 yd to the Neb 28

4th & 3Punt+62 yds

Daniel Cerni punt for 34 yds , Jayden Reed returns for 62 yds for a TD, (Matt Coghlin KICK)

0th & 0Kickoff Return (Offense)+13 yds

Matt Coghlin kickoff for 60 yds , Rahmir Johnson return for 13 yds to the Neb 18

1st & 10Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +0.71

Adrian Martinez pass complete to Austin Allen for 11 yds to the Neb 29 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.10

Rahmir Johnson run for 5 yds to the Neb 34

2nd & 5Pass Reception-1 ydsPPA -1.01

Adrian Martinez pass complete to Omar Manning for a loss of 1 yard to the Neb 33

3rd & 6Punt0 yds

William Przystup punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Jayden Reed at the MchSt 25

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.70

Payton Thorne pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.35

Payton Thorne pass incomplete

3rd & 10Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +0.33

Payton Thorne pass complete to Harold Joiner for 9 yds to the MchSt 34

4th & 1Punt0 yds

Bryce Baringer punt for 66 yds for a touchback

1st & 10Pass Reception+18 ydsPPA +1.43

Adrian Martinez pass complete to Shawn Hardy II for 18 yds to the Neb 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Sack0 ydsPPA -1.09

Adrian Martinez sacked by Jeff Pietrowski for 0 yards to the Neb 32

0th & 16End of Regulation0 yds

End of 4th Quarter

2nd & 8Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.06

Kenneth Walker III run for a loss of 1 yard to the Neb 3 Adrian Martinez pass complete to Omar Manning for 5 yds to the MchSt 18

1st & 10Pass Reception+23 ydsPPA +1.49

Adrian Martinez pass complete to Rahmir Johnson for 2 yds to the MchSt 23 Adrian Martinez pass complete to Rahmir Johnson for 2 yds to the MchSt 23 run for 23 yds to the Neb 2 for a 1ST down

2nd & 3Uncategorized0 yds

Adrian Martinez pass intercepted return for no gain to the Neb 22 Adrian Martinez pass intercepted return for no gain to the Neb 22 Adrian Martinez pass intercepted return for no gain to the Neb 22 Kenneth Walker III run for no gain to the Neb 3

3rd & 3placeholder+21 ydsPPA +1.44

Matt Coghlin 21 yd FG GOOD

Situational Analysis

Nebraska

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
100%
1 play
51%
35 plays
0%
1 play
2nd
33%
3 plays
0%
6 plays
60%
10 plays
17%
6 plays
3rd
80%
5 plays
40%
5 plays
0%
4 plays
75%
4 plays
4th
100%
2 plays

Michigan State

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
60%
20 plays
2nd
50%
2 plays
25%
4 plays
29%
7 plays
100%
1 play
3rd
33%
3 plays
0%
3 plays
33%
3 plays
100%
1 play
4th
0%
1 play