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← Back to GamesOct 2, 2021Week 5
Conference Game

House Prediction

Model Margin

Wisconsin by 1.8

Home Win Probability

Wisconsin 50%

Market (consensus)

Wisconsin -2.5

Edge: Michigan +2.5 (0.7 pts)

fitted_v1 · Oct 2, 2021

Line Movement

No line movement to chart

Sportsbook snapshots publish once a line is posted for this game.

Team1Q2Q3Q4QFinal
MichiganMichigan
7671838
WisconsinWisconsin
0100717

Scoring Timeline

Q1Q2Q3Q401428420-70-103-103-1310-2010-3110-3817-38
WisconsinMichigan

Drive Chart

Own 20Own 4050Opp 40Opp 20MICWISMICWISMICWISMICMICWISMICWISMICWISMICWISMICWISMICWISMICWISMICWISMICWISMICWISMICDOWNS821ydPUNT36ydPUNT616ydPUNT30ydTD759ydPUNT3-3ydTO522ydFG4-3ydPUNT3-10ydPUNT37ydFG1578ydFG936ydTD363ydEND11ydPUNT3-8ydTD1159ydPUNT924ydPUNT626ydTO414ydFG33ydTO10ydTD535ydPUNT3-2ydTD567ydPUNT30ydTO35ydTD343ydEND11yd

Box Score

Team statistics comparing Michigan and Wisconsin
StatisticMichiganWisconsin
Passing18-3011-23
Pass Yards253167
Rush Yards11243
Total Yards365210
Turnovers13
3rd Down6-193-14
Penalties3-101-5
Possession34:3825:22

Player Leaders

Player Leaders

Michigan
passing
Cade McNamara
17/28, 197 YDS, 2 TD
rushing
Hassan Haskins
19 CAR, 47 YDS
receiving
Roman Wilson
6 REC, 81 YDS
defense
Wisconsin
passing
Graham Mertz
8/15, 115 YDS, 1 TD
rushing
Braelon Allen
5 CAR, 19 YDS
receiving
Chimere Dike
2 REC, 54 YDS, 1 TD
defense

Play-by-Play

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.70

Cade McNamara pass incomplete to Daylen Baldwin

2nd & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.31

Hassan Haskins run for 7 yds to the Mich 32

3rd & 3Pass Reception+2 ydsPPA -0.33

Cade McNamara pass complete to Mike Sainristil for 2 yds to the Mich 34

4th & 1Rush+3 ydsPPA +1.75

Hassan Haskins run for 3 yds to the Mich 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.16

Blake Corum run for 4 yds to the Mich 41

2nd & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.02

Cade McNamara pass incomplete to Cornelius Johnson

3rd & 6Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.06

Cade McNamara pass complete to Luke Schoonmaker for 5 yds to the Mich 46

4th & 1Rush0 ydsPPA -0.82

Hassan Haskins run for no gain to the Mich 46

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.34

Chez Mellusi run for 3 yds to the Mich 43

2nd & 7Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.37

Chez Mellusi run for 3 yds to the Mich 40

3rd & 5Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.08

Graham Mertz pass incomplete to Jake Ferguson

4th & 5Punt0 yds

Andy Vujnovich punt for 39 yds, downed at the Mich 1

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.15

Cade McNamara run for 2 yds to the Mich 3

2nd & 8Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.13

Hassan Haskins run for 1 yd to the Mich 4

3rd & 7Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.54

Cade McNamara pass complete to Blake Corum for 8 yds to the Mich 12 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.38

Cade McNamara pass incomplete to Cornelius Johnson

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.17

Cade McNamara pass incomplete to Cornelius Johnson

3rd & 10Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.01

Cade McNamara pass complete to Erick All for 5 yds to the Mich 17

4th & 5Punt0 yds

Brad Robbins punt for 49 yds, fair catch by Dean Engram at the Wisc 34

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.99

Graham Mertz pass incomplete to Kendric Pryor

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.57

Graham Mertz pass incomplete to Kendric Pryor

3rd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.28

Graham Mertz pass incomplete to Chimere Dike

4th & 10Punt+19 yds

Andy Vujnovich punt for 44 yds , A.J. Henning returns for 19 yds to the Mich 41

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.70

Blake Corum run for 7 yds to the Mich 48

2nd & 3Rush+4 ydsPPA +0.28

Blake Corum run for 4 yds to the Wisc 48 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.84

A.J. Henning run for 1 yd to the Wisc 47

2nd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.08

Cade McNamara pass incomplete to Donovan Edwards

3rd & 9Penalty-5 yds

MICHIGAN Penalty, False Start (Ryan Hayes) to the Mich 48

3rd & 14Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +1.39

Cade McNamara pass complete to Roman Wilson for 12 yds to the Wisc 40

4th & 2Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +2.16

Cade McNamara pass complete to Roman Wilson for 6 yds to the Wisc 34 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Passing Touchdown+34 ydsPPA +2.94

Cade McNamara pass complete to Cornelius Johnson for 34 yds for a TD (Jake Moody KICK)

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.30

Jalen Berger run for 3 yds to the Wisc 28

2nd & 7Rush-2 ydsPPA -0.70

Jalen Berger run for a loss of 2 yards to the Wisc 26

3rd & 9Sack-4 ydsPPA -0.26

Graham Mertz sacked by Christopher Hinton for a loss of 4 yards to the Wisc 22 WISCONSIN Penalty, Offensive Holding (Tommy Brunner) declined

4th & 13Punt0 yds

Andy Vujnovich punt for 48 yds, downed at the Mich 30

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.55

Blake Corum run for 2 yds to the Mich 32

2nd & 8Pass Reception+17 ydsPPA +2.32

Cade McNamara pass complete to Roman Wilson for 17 yds to the Mich 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.89

Blake Corum run for 1 yd to the 50 yard line

2nd & 9Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.08

Blake Corum run for 5 yds to the Wisc 45

3rd & 4Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.65

Blake Corum run for 2 yds to the Wisc 43

4th & 2Penalty-5 yds

MICHIGAN Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the Wisc 48

4th & 7Punt0 yds

Brad Robbins punt for 43 yds , Hunter Wohler returns for no gain to the Wisc 5 Hunter Wohler fumbled, recovered by Mich Joey Velazquez

1st & 5Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.45

Hassan Haskins run for 1 yd to the Wisc 4

2nd & 4Rush-4 ydsPPA -0.61

Hassan Haskins run for a loss of 4 yards to the Wisc 8

3rd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.35

Cade McNamara pass incomplete to Cornelius Johnson

4th & 8Field Goal Good+26 yds

Jake Moody 26 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.45

Jalen Berger run for 2 yds to the Wisc 27

2nd & 8Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.40

Jalen Berger run for 1 yd to the Wisc 28

3rd & 7Penalty-5 yds

WISCONSIN Penalty, Delay of Game (Graham Mertz) to the Wisc 23

3rd & 12Sack-8 ydsPPA -0.18

Graham Mertz sacked by David Ojabo for a loss of 8 yards to the Wisc 15

4th & 20Punt0 yds

Andy Vujnovich punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Mike Sainristil at the Mich 45

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.16

Cade McNamara pass incomplete to Cornelius Johnson

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.91

Cade McNamara pass incomplete to Roman Wilson

3rd & 10Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.40

Cade McNamara pass complete to Luke Schoonmaker for 7 yds to the Wisc 48

4th & 3Punt0 yds

Brad Robbins punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Dean Engram at the Wisc 6

1st & 10Pass Reception+19 ydsPPA +0.82

Graham Mertz pass complete to Jake Ferguson for 19 yds to the Wisc 25 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.11

Chez Mellusi run for 4 yds to the Wisc 29

2nd & 6Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.09

Graham Mertz pass complete to Kendric Pryor for 5 yds to the Wisc 34

3rd & 1Rush+2 ydsPPA +0.95

Braelon Allen run for 2 yds to the Wisc 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.64

Chez Mellusi run for 2 yds to the Wisc 38

2nd & 8Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.59

Graham Mertz pass complete to Kendric Pryor for 7 yds to the Wisc 45

3rd & 1Rush0 ydsPPA -1.04

Chez Mellusi run for no gain to the Wisc 45

4th & 1Rush+2 ydsPPA +2.15

John Chenal run for 2 yds to the Wisc 47 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+13 ydsPPA +0.91

Graham Mertz pass complete to Kendric Pryor for 13 yds to the Mich 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +0.84

Graham Mertz pass complete to Jake Ferguson for 9 yds to the Mich 31

2nd & 1Rush+7 ydsPPA -0.33

Braelon Allen run for 7 yds to the Mich 24 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.43

Graham Mertz pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.58

Graham Mertz pass incomplete to Danny Davis III

3rd & 10Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.44

Graham Mertz pass complete to Chez Mellusi for 8 yds to the Mich 16

4th & 2Field Goal Good+34 yds

Collin Larsh 34 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.71

Hassan Haskins run for 7 yds to the Mich 42

2nd & 3Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.61

Hassan Haskins run for 7 yds to the Mich 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.13

Cade McNamara pass incomplete to Cornelius Johnson

2nd & 10Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.17

Cade McNamara pass complete to Roman Wilson for 4 yds to the Wisc 47

3rd & 6Pass Reception+13 ydsPPA +2.28

Cade McNamara pass complete to Mike Sainristil for 13 yds to the Wisc 34 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.06

Cade McNamara pass complete to Erick All for 4 yds to the Wisc 30

2nd & 6Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.54

Hassan Haskins run for 1 yd to the Wisc 29

3rd & 5Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.89

Cade McNamara pass incomplete to Daylen Baldwin

4th & 5Field Goal Good+47 yds

Jake Moody 47 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +1.38

Braelon Allen run for 9 yds to the Wisc 46

2nd & 1Pass Reception+36 ydsPPA +1.08

Graham Mertz pass complete to Chimere Dike for 36 yds to the Mich 18 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Passing Touchdown+18 ydsPPA +2.59

Graham Mertz pass complete to Chimere Dike for 18 yds for a TD (Collin Larsh KICK)

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.64

Hassan Haskins run for 1 yd to the Mich 28

0th & 10End of Half0 yds

End of 2nd Quarter

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.70

Graham Mertz pass incomplete to Kendric Pryor

2nd & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.29

Chez Mellusi run for 1 yd to the Wisc 26

3rd & 9Sack-9 ydsPPA -0.31

Graham Mertz sacked by Josh Ross and Daxton Hill for a loss of 9 yards to the Wisc 17 WISCONSIN Penalty, Illegal Formation ( Yards) declined

4th & 18Punt+13 yds

Andy Vujnovich punt for 55 yds , A.J. Henning returns for 13 yds to the Mich 41

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.43

Hassan Haskins run for 3 yds to the Mich 44

2nd & 7Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.64

Hassan Haskins run for 2 yds to the Mich 46

3rd & 5Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.14

Cade McNamara run for 4 yds to the 50 yard line

4th & 1Rush+2 ydsPPA +2.19

Hassan Haskins run for 2 yds to the Wisc 48 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -1.07

Blake Corum run for no gain to the Wisc 48

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.05

Cade McNamara pass incomplete to Blake Corum

3rd & 10Pass Reception+38 ydsPPA +3.30

Cade McNamara pass complete to Roman Wilson for 38 yds to the Wisc 10 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.01

Blake Corum run for 4 yds to the Wisc 6

2nd & 6Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.10

Blake Corum run for 3 yds to the Wisc 3

3rd & 3Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.16

Hassan Haskins run for 2 yds to the Wisc 1

4th & 1Rushing Touchdown+1 ydsPPA +2.79

J.J. McCarthy run for 1 yd for a TD (Jake Moody KICK)

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.33

Jalen Berger run for 6 yds to the Wisc 31

2nd & 4Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.36

Jalen Berger run for 3 yds to the Wisc 34

3rd & 1Rush+1 ydsPPA +0.86

John Chenal run for 1 yd to the Wisc 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -1.01

Jalen Berger run for no gain to the Wisc 35

2nd & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.06

Jalen Berger run for 5 yds to the Wisc 40

3rd & 5Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +2.27

Chase Wolf pass complete to Jalen Berger for 9 yds to the Wisc 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.13

Chase Wolf pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.01

Chase Wolf pass incomplete to Jack Eschenbach

3rd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.67

Chase Wolf pass incomplete to Chimere Dike

4th & 10Punt0 yds

Andy Vujnovich punt for 41 yds, fair catch by A.J. Henning at the Mich 10

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.15

Blake Corum run for 3 yds to the Mich 13

2nd & 7Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.17

J.J. McCarthy run for 6 yds to the Mich 19

3rd & 1Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.84

Hassan Haskins run for 8 yds to the Mich 27 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.35

Cade McNamara pass complete to Hassan Haskins for 6 yds to the Mich 33

2nd & 4Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.38

Hassan Haskins run for 3 yds to the Mich 36

3rd & 1Rush0 ydsPPA -0.76

Hassan Haskins run for no gain to the Mich 36

4th & 1Punt0 yds

Brad Robbins punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Dean Engram at the Wisc 19

1st & 10Rush+13 ydsPPA +0.92

Kendric Pryor run for 13 yds to the Wisc 32 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.11

Chase Wolf run for 5 yds to the Wisc 37

2nd & 5Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.81

Braelon Allen run for 1 yd to the Wisc 38

3rd & 4Sack-5 ydsPPA -0.95

Chase Wolf sacked by David Ojabo for a loss of 5 yards to the Wisc 33 Chase Wolf fumbled, forced by David Ojabo, recovered by Mich Christopher Hinton , return for 0 yards

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.80

A.J. Henning run for a loss of 1 yard to the Wisc 34

2nd & 11Penalty0 yds

McNamara, Cade pass complete to Wilson, Roman for 13 yards to the WISCONSIN21, PENALTY MICHIGAN illegal touching (Wilson, Roman) 0 yards to the WISCONSIN34, NO PLAY.

3rd & 11Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.16

Cade McNamara pass complete to Roman Wilson for 4 yds to the Wisc 30

4th & 7Field Goal Good+48 yds

Jake Moody 48 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Pass Interception Return0 ydsPPA -0.92

Chase Wolf pass intercepted Daxton Hill return for no gain to the Wisc 35

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.53

Hassan Haskins run for 1 yd to the Wisc 34

2nd & 9Pass Reception+19 ydsPPA +0.94

Cade McNamara pass complete to Erick All for 19 yds to the Wisc 15 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.18

Blake Corum run for 2 yds to the Wisc 13

2nd & 8Rush0 ydsPPA -0.33

Blake Corum run for no gain to the Wisc 13

3rd & 8Passing Touchdown+13 ydsPPA +3.07

Cade McNamara pass complete to Cornelius Johnson for 13 yds for a TD (Cade McNamara pass to Cornelius Johnson for Two-Point Conversion)

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.11

Kendric Pryor run for 4 yds to the Wisc 29

2nd & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.65

Chase Wolf pass incomplete

3rd & 6Sack-6 ydsPPA -0.48

Chase Wolf sacked by David Ojabo and Mike Morris for a loss of 6 yards to the Wisc 23

4th & 12Punt0 yds

Andy Vujnovich punt for 44 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Mich 33

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.70

Blake Corum run for 7 yds to the Mich 40

2nd & 3Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.75

Blake Corum run for 2 yds to the Mich 42

3rd & 1Rush+2 ydsPPA +1.11

Hassan Haskins run for 2 yds to the Mich 44 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -1.16

J.J. McCarthy run for no gain to the Mich 44

2nd & 10Passing Touchdown+56 ydsPPA +5.53

J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Daylen Baldwin for 56 yds for a TD (Jake Moody KICK)

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.09

Isaac Guerendo run for 5 yds to the Wisc 30

2nd & 5Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.48

Isaac Guerendo run for 2 yds to the Wisc 32

3rd & 3Sack-7 ydsPPA -0.82

Chase Wolf sacked by Taylor Upshaw for a loss of 7 yards to the Wisc 25

4th & 10Punt+5 yds

Andy Vujnovich punt for 48 yds , A.J. Henning returns for 5 yds to the Mich 32

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.77

Donovan Edwards run for 1 yd to the Mich 33

2nd & 9Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.11

Dan Villari run for 4 yds to the Mich 37

3rd & 5Pass Interception Return+2 ydsPPA -0.61

Alan Bowman pass intercepted Alexander Smith return for 2 yds to the Mich 43

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.94

Braelon Allen run for no gain to the Mich 43

2nd & 10Pass Reception+18 ydsPPA +1.59

Chase Wolf pass complete to Jack Eschenbach for 18 yds to the Mich 25 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Passing Touchdown+25 ydsPPA +2.70

Chase Wolf pass complete to Clay Cundiff for 25 yds for a TD (Collin Larsh KICK)

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.59

Leon Franklin run for 1 yd to the Mich 26

Situational Analysis

Michigan

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
0%
1 play
19%
26 plays
2nd
67%
3 plays
0%
5 plays
40%
15 plays
3rd
40%
5 plays
33%
6 plays
83%
6 plays
50%
2 plays
4th
80%
5 plays

Wisconsin

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
43%
23 plays
2nd
50%
2 plays
20%
5 plays
30%
10 plays
3rd
50%
4 plays
25%
4 plays
20%
5 plays
0%
1 play
4th
100%
1 play